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roby
12-26-2006, 06:49 PM
I have a question for some of you guys who know a lot more about these two prospects than I do.

How realistic is it to think that Votto and Bailey could be ready to start the season in Cincinnati? If, by some chance, they could be ready...it would make things look a lot better. Instead of sitting still, the Reds would be moving towards the future with two of their best young players.

Could Votto be good enough at first base? I really believe that it is important to challenge good young hitters rather than to leave them in the minors when they are ready to bloom. Is Votto that close?

With Homer Bailey, I wouldn't use him in any other rotation spot but #5. While I would hope that he is ready to be very good...I would want the pressure to be lessened by the 5 spot...and it would also diminish the number of innings he would have to log. I have a feeling that Homer could be very good right away. Am I all wet here?


It would still require the Reds to go get another decent starter. (There is a really strong case made elsewhere on this board for Mark Mulder or Jerome). This would allow the Reds to rely less (or not at all) on Milton or Lohse...something that I think would be really smart (despite contract obligations).

How close is Jay Bruce? Two years? Or maybe a little less?

There has to be a way to get this Reds team in a place where we fans feel that there is marked improvement and some kind of commitment to winning. I'm wracking my brain. How about some help?

gm
12-26-2006, 07:21 PM
With Homer Bailey, I wouldn't use him in any other rotation spot but #5. While I would hope that he is ready to be very good...I would want the pressure to be lessened by the 5 spot...and it would also diminish the number of innings he would have to log.

The problem with assigning Bailey to the 5 spot is that he could go a week or more between starts. BUZZ! The best thing for Homer (or any young pitching prospect) is to get him consistent reps with regular pitch counts. The 5th starter role (especially in the spring months) is more suited for a veteran swing man who can also pitch long relief in-between starts.

Z-Fly
12-26-2006, 07:32 PM
I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.

Degenerate39
12-26-2006, 09:13 PM
I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.

You've got it right!

Bigredfan#1
12-26-2006, 09:45 PM
Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?

TeamBoone
12-26-2006, 09:50 PM
Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?

Homer DEFINITELY has not been in the minors long enough to become frustrated! He's still learning the ropes. Even if they don't bring him up until next year, he'll be very young.

What I certainly don't want to see is anything that even remotely resembles what happened to Ryan Wagner.

toledodan
12-26-2006, 10:07 PM
The problem with assigning Bailey to the 5 spot is that he could go a week or more between starts. BUZZ! The best thing for Homer (or any young pitching prospect) is to get him consistent reps with regular pitch counts. The 5th starter role (especially in the spring months) is more suited for a veteran swing man who can also pitch long relief in-between starts.


good points about bailey and the 5th spot. i wouldn't bring him up north this spring unless he showed he was ready to be a number 3 or 4. if they think he is just ready for the 5th man spot keep him in louisville for the first month or two. as for votto the signing of hatteburg and trading for connine almost kills joey's chances for 2007. if joey starts at louisville and tears it up it may allow us to move either connine or hatteburg and bring votto up at the trade deadline. if the reds fall out of it by the trade deadline i would love to see that move made. it wouldn't hurt to get him some AB'S this season so he can be ready to play everyday come 2008. as for bruce i see maybe a september callup in 2008 and possibly a starter come 2009. if he's ready before then it would be icing on the cake. i see alot of jd drew(minus the ego) in bruce. he could be really special by the time he puts his cincinnati uniform on.

edabbs44
12-26-2006, 10:09 PM
I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.

I agree here, but there are 2 things that need to be thought about before implementing a policy like this:

1) Think about Upton and Young in TB. You have to be careful to use it to the team's advantage while not outright screwing the prospect over. I bet that, come arbitration and FA time, those two will not be kind to the TB front office.

2) Who is the current #5 starter? There is a pretty decent chance that Bailey could outpitch both Milton and Lohse in 2007, forgetting the mystery man in the 5 slot. So can we actually believe that the FO is serious about winning this season if they get some reject to come in and pitch every 5th day? Depending on this situation, I think it will speak volumes about the FO mentality in 2007.

And I really don't think Wagner blew in Cincy b/c he was rushed. There's a really good chance that he never would have put it together. For every Wagner, there's a Gooden or Bonderman who end up just fine...pitching wise, that is.:)

RedsManRick
12-26-2006, 11:36 PM
Wagner blew up in Cincy because he could throw his out pitch for strikes and his only other pitch was a too-hittable fastball. Sit on the fastball, hope he can't locate the slider. Voila.

The one thing I will agree with for Bailey is that once he's up, he needs to stay up. He's not some borderline guy who may or may not have what it takes and could use the audition. He needs to stay put and learn to pitch against his ultimate competition. Look at Bonderman -- at 21 he came up and got beat around a bit. But the Tigers stuck with him. The only question is how much performance do you want out of him pre-arb.

mth123
12-27-2006, 05:56 AM
I think Pitchers and Hitters are different. Bailey is still developing and hasn't even gotten to the point of pitching 150 innings. I think he needs at least a half season at AAA to help baby his arm a little. He may be ready for some starts in the majors in August. I wouldn't want him to go more than 170 Innings or so in 2007 so give him 90 to 100 in AAA and then give him about 10 starts in the majors.

Votto on the other hand is not a pitcher and the timetable is different. There is no injury nexus to worry about. He has also hit well every year except the year that he was forced to change his approach by DanO's rules. He has a good approach and plenty of plate discipline. He has power and even if he performs below expectations he'd be as good as Hatte and Conine IMO. I'd push him until he fails. He'll probably stay in AAA to work on his defense.

steig
12-27-2006, 12:14 PM
Bailey already has the best stuff in the organization. If you look at how he pitched at Chat. you could make the case for him forcing them to bring him up. I believe he will start in AAA and be up early if the Reds have a starter that is really struggling. It is hard to know when to bring them up and when to let them stay in the minors. Too long in the minors can cause them to lose their confidence, become frustrated with management and then when they become free agents later there will be little chance on them staying with their ML team. On the other hand if you bring them up to early and they are so over matched again the confidence factor is there and they may never recover!

This is why they have so many scouts and people over the minors who can help make the decision on when a player is ready.

From everything I have read Votto is still a year away but who knows?

Bailey doesn't have the best stuff in the organization until he proves it at the ML level. Remember, he is going to turn 22 this season. That is still very young for a pitching prospect. I believe he needs to develop physically and as a pitcher. I would like to see him going longer into games in the minors before he comes up to Cincy. I know he is always going to go deep into pitch counts b/c he is a strike out pitcher but ML level hitters will work him more and that has to get factored into the decision on when to bring him up to the big club.

Johnny Footstool
12-27-2006, 12:19 PM
Don't fall in love with prospects.

Bigredfan#1
12-27-2006, 12:30 PM
according to those in the know! I do not advocate bringing him up yet but there is a danger of bringing him up too early and too late. Just because he has not pitched in the majors you can't say he has to prove he has the best stuff. It is like a collega basketball player being drafted in the pros and they say before he ever gets there he will be our best rebounder or our best shooter or ball handler. Yep he might fail but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the best stuff!

KoryMac5
12-27-2006, 12:36 PM
Bring Votto in for a late season look when the rosters expand. I might think about Bailey at that time too but it really depends on how he looks at that point and what kind of year he is having.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-27-2006, 12:37 PM
Homer DEFINITELY has not been in the minors long enough to become frustrated! He's still learning the ropes. Even if they don't bring him up until next year, he'll be very young.

What I certainly don't want to see is anything that even remotely resembles what happened to Ryan Wagner.
I keep seeing this Ryan Wagner stuff pop up all of the time when theres talk of bringing someone up too soon and I dissagree. Human nature is to rebound and recover, people do it everyday. Whether its a death of a loved one or losing a job or whatever. If a pitcher with the talent that Ryan Wagner had cant recover mentally from a bad stretch in the bigs, there is alot more to it than being brought along too soon. I think this is the main reason he was traded to Washington. A closer type pitcher needs something special deep inside him that no other athlete has, its a heres what I got and you cant touch it kind of attitude. This cannot be found in a player that would let a rough year in the majors effect him like it did Wagner. I think he was missing what it takes to be a top level player and Wayne realized it, sending him back to the man who never did. Ryan Wagner is like one of the many homeless people you see on the way to the ball park, and you ask yourself why don't they pick themselves up and start over. The answer is that they may have what it takes as far as the skill to do a job and live an everyday life, but they don't have the heart or desire to do what it takes to get it done. I don't think thats the case with Homer, hes got a good head on his shoulders, and He's not begging to be brought up verbally, hes doing it with his results.

flyer85
12-27-2006, 12:40 PM
The real question isn't if they are "ready". The question is will they likely be better than the alternatives, in this case Hatty/Conine and unknown.

TeamBoone
12-27-2006, 01:19 PM
Wagner blew up in Cincy because he could throw his out pitch for strikes and his only other pitch was a too-hittable fastball. Sit on the fastball, hope he can't locate the slider. Voila.

Exactly my point. He wasn't ready to come up the very next season following his draft.

IMHO, he should have been given the time to mature from the 21-22 yr old pitcher fresh-out-of-college pitcher he was at the time (and to learn a thing or three more).


I keep seeing this Ryan Wagner stuff pop up all of the time when theres talk of bringing someone up too soon and I dissagree. Human nature is to rebound and recover, people do it everyday. Whether its a death of a loved one or losing a job or whatever. If a pitcher with the talent that Ryan Wagner had cant recover mentally from a bad stretch in the bigs, there is alot more to it than being brought along too soon. I think this is the main reason he was traded to Washington. A closer type pitcher needs something special deep inside him that no other athlete has, its a heres what I got and you cant touch it kind of attitude. This cannot be found in a player that would let a rough year in the majors effect him like it did Wagner. I think he was missing what it takes to be a top level player and Wayne realized it, sending him back to the man who never did. Ryan Wagner is like one of the many homeless people you see on the way to the ball park, and you ask yourself why don't they pick themselves up and start over. The answer is that they may have what it takes as far as the skill to do a job and live an everyday life, but they don't have the heart or desire to do what it takes to get it done. I don't think thats the case with Homer, hes got a good head on his shoulders, and He's not begging to be brought up verbally, hes doing it with his results.

I guess I don't understand why everyone thinks it was ok to bring Wagner up pretty much immediately after they drafted the guy, but that it would be detrimental to bring Bailey up too soon (which I agree with, BTW).

So why is it different for Ryan? He spent little to no time in the minors... IMHO, he was pretty much destined to fail at the MLB level but most think that was ok in his situation. I don't think it has anything to do with "heart", but instead, has everything to do with the fact that he wasn't honed in the minor leagues, mentally or pitching-wise.

dougdirt
12-27-2006, 01:29 PM
Bailey doesn't have the best stuff in the organization until he proves it at the ML level. Remember, he is going to turn 22 this season. That is still very young for a pitching prospect. I believe he needs to develop physically and as a pitcher. I would like to see him going longer into games in the minors before he comes up to Cincy. I know he is always going to go deep into pitch counts b/c he is a strike out pitcher but ML level hitters will work him more and that has to get factored into the decision on when to bring him up to the big club.
Bailey is actually still 20. He wont turn 21 until May 3rd. As for the original question, it wont happen with Votto for sure. They signed Hatteberg and it looks like Conine to man first base this season. Votto, unless he goes absolutely nuts in AAA wont be here before September, or Hatteberg gets hurt. Homer on the other hand, probably starts in AAA and gets the call as soon as something goes wrong in Cincinnati.

edabbs44
12-27-2006, 02:05 PM
Homer on the other hand, probably starts in AAA and gets the call as soon as something goes wrong in Cincinnati.

Which could be as soon as WK acquires the 5th starter.

Superdude
12-27-2006, 02:23 PM
Bailey doesn't have the best stuff in the organization until he proves it at the ML level.

You're preaching to the choir man...Milton can bring it!

I think Bailey should be given a chance next year. Castellini says they want to win now, but whether it's smart or not, hasn't shelled out the money to support a philosophy like that. The only other way is to field the best team your organization can offer, and I find it hard to believe that Bailey is not one of our 5 best starters. He may not be Greg Maddux, but he's now got 3 relatively polished pitches and has some idea of where it's going. Bailey's probably gonna end up in the majors at some point next season anyway, so the free agent clock thing is not as much of an issue IMO. If he clicks, a top 3 of Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey would make for a pretty exciting season.

AdamDunn
12-27-2006, 02:32 PM
Don't fall in love with prospects.

Too late.

Votto up after the All-Star break (assuming he adjusts to AAA well) because I think we're going to trade Hatty if (and when) we aren't in the playoff race. Conine can play other positions besides first. Bailey comes up when a starter gets injured or when the roster expands (also assuming he adjusts to AAA well).

Will M
12-27-2006, 02:41 PM
Bailey is actually still 20. He wont turn 21 until May 3rd. As for the original question, it wont happen with Votto for sure. They signed Hatteberg and it looks like Conine to man first base this season. Votto, unless he goes absolutely nuts in AAA wont be here before September, or Hatteberg gets hurt. Homer on the other hand, probably starts in AAA and gets the call as soon as something goes wrong in Cincinnati.

Hopefully not.

Votto could still win the 1B job in spring training. He will have to shine. If he does then he gets 120 games at 1B. Hatteberg gets an occasional start to keep his bat fresh and mostly pinch hits.
Conine gets an occasional start vs a tough lefty, gets an occasional start in LF when Dunn needs a rest and mostly pinch hits.
IMO this is the ideal situation.
Both Hatteberg and Conine are mature and professional enough to not gripe and moan in this situation.

If Votto isn't quite ready Hatteberg and Conine play 1B until he is.

dougdirt
12-27-2006, 02:49 PM
I dont think they signed Hatteberg to an extension to give Votto a legit shot to win the job out of ST. He will literally have to hit .300 with 7 HR and like 25 RBI to get a real shot of making the 25 man as the starting 1st baseman.... Not that he couldnt do that, but he will have to blow away Hatteberg to get a real look in my opinion.

BRM
12-27-2006, 02:55 PM
I dont think they signed Hatteberg to an extension to give Votto a legit shot to win the job out of ST. He will literally have to hit .300 with 7 HR and like 25 RBI to get a real shot of making the 25 man as the starting 1st baseman.... Not that he couldnt do that, but he will have to blow away Hatteberg to get a real look in my opinion.

I think he starts the year in Louisville regardless of how well he plays in the spring.

mth123
12-27-2006, 03:06 PM
I think he starts the year in Louisville regardless of how well he plays in the spring.

Me too. We know Narron is a vet lover and Krivsky sure seems to be.

Red Leader
12-27-2006, 03:10 PM
So why is it different for Ryan? He spent little to no time in the minors... IMHO, he was pretty much destined to fail at the MLB level but most think that was ok in his situation. I don't think it has anything to do with "heart", but instead, has everything to do with the fact that he wasn't honed in the minor leagues, mentally or pitching-wise.

The difference is that Ryan Wagner was drafted out of a 4 year college. He had played college baseball, his arm was stretched out in college baseball. He had dominated college baseball hitters with his slider, and he was a bullpen guy, not a starter. Ryan Wagner's stuff was known from the draft. They knew that slider he had would get major league hitters out. They didn't need him to prove that in the minors (at least not for very long). They were able to bring him up and put him in the bullpen where they determined how many innings he'd pitch and when he would get used. You can't do that with Homer.

Homer Bailey was drafted out of High School. He is a starting pitcher. You have to be more refined as a pitcher to make it as a starter in the majors than a reliever. Could Homer Bailey be a useful pitcher for the Reds bullpen out of Spring Training this year? You bet. He could possibly even serve as the Red's closer this year if they wanted him to (similar to what Papelbon did for Boston last year). But I have my doubts that he's truly ready to be handed a spot in the rotation out of spring training. Ready to take the ball every 5th day, ready to face hitters 2-3 times through the order.... I just think he needs a little time in AAA, against that competition, before we'll know that for sure.

bucksfan2
12-27-2006, 04:48 PM
Why keep him down. So he learns how to pitch against major league rejects and AAAA players? He dominated AA ball where most of teams best prospects are. Throw him in the rotation, let him refine his game at the MLB level. He is going to struggle when he first gets up anyway. I doubt the kid has a weak psyche. If I were running the reds I would have both Baily and Votto penceled in on the MLB roster unless they have a woful spring.

dougdirt
12-27-2006, 04:54 PM
Bucksfan2, the reason to keep him down is exactly to face major league rejects and AAAA players. For the most part, those guys are professional hitters. They will make you work to get them out. Yeah, he dominated AA where a lot of good prospects are, but in the end, those guys are still prospects too. I think AAA helps pitchers a lot more than it does hitters.

Red Leader
12-27-2006, 05:03 PM
Bucksfan2, the reason to keep him down is exactly to face major league rejects and AAAA players. For the most part, those guys are professional hitters. They will make you work to get them out. Yeah, he dominated AA where a lot of good prospects are, but in the end, those guys are still prospects too. I think AAA helps pitchers a lot more than it does hitters.


Completely agree, dougdirt. Excellent post. AAA for pitchers is different than for hitters. The hitters that AAA pitchers face are mostly hitters that have played in MLB already in some capacity and don't quite have the skills to stay at the professional ranks, or excel at that level. Almost all of those hitters do in fact have MLB experience, though, and can destroy weak pitching. They can all pretty much hammer a fastball if they are expecting it and get it. They can also hit breaking pitches a lot better than most prospects in AA who haven't had exposure to MLB as well.

For a pitcher, facing these hitters is a logical next step in your development.

Blitz Dorsey
12-27-2006, 10:42 PM
If Bailey looks good in spring training, IMO, the Reds should put him in the rotation in the #4 spot so he doesn't miss a start, let him throw 5-6 innings each start and see what happens. He was lights out most of last year and I would say he was pretty close to forcing the team to put him in the show this year. Harang and Arroyo will be the 1 and 2 obviously and nothing else is certain. My guess is that either Milton or Lohse will have a good spring and lock up the #3 spot. The other one will be shaky and will be the #5. That opens the door for Bailey to be the #4. And although the hitting is not as good at AAA, it's not like Bailey would be throwing any less hard. In other words, it's not better or worse for his arm long term if he's in the majors this year or not. The key is not overstressing his arm, which it sounds like the Reds are committed to not doing whether he's in AAA or the majors.

As for Votto, I think he will open the year in AAA and will stay there unless there are injuries to Hatte or Conine (but how could either of those whipper snappers ever get hurt?) or he completely tears the cover off the ball. Votto is a good not great prospect IMO.

jmac
12-27-2006, 10:54 PM
Votto is a good not great prospect IMO.

I would like to see votto do a little something at the TripleA level first.
Does anyone know what his final stats were from the winter league he was playing in ?

roby
12-28-2006, 12:05 AM
Thanks to all of you for your thoughts and imput. I can't argue with most of what has been said. I just fear that, if the reds go with all of the senior citizens that they are signing, that this will be a lost year. Some of us are getting really sick of losing year after year...especially when that losing is accompanied by all of the promises to win, compete, and bring championship baseball back to Cincy. Somehow, the Reds are going to have to get younger AND better. If they are writing this season off anyway...why all of the foolish signings. Why not go after young guys with potential who are about ready for a major league trial run. Then, if any succeed, (like Philips and Ross did last year), you know what you have going into next season when Votto, Bailey and maybe Bruce are ready to go. I'm not understanding the reds plan at all. (And I really like Castelini and Krivsky).?. :confused:

dougdirt
12-28-2006, 12:23 AM
Jay Bruce will not be ready to go next season. Votto and Bailey may be, but Bruce wont be for sure.

bucksfan2
12-28-2006, 08:26 AM
Roby I agree with you. As a fan I can understand the reds rebuilding and not have a problem with that. I will probably go and see Baily make his first start if all possible. I will go and see Votto play if they give he the job at some point this season. What I dont want to see is Jeff Conine playing 1B. He may outproduce Votto this season given the same ab's. However once Votto gets used to ML pitching i would believe that Votto would outproduce Conine. I would much rather see Votto given a chance this year to play 1B day in day out, let him learn how to play the game at the big league level, that the reds trot out Jeff Conine every other day.

Falls City Beer
12-28-2006, 11:09 AM
The risk in leaving Bailey down in Louisville for too long is that if his numbers drop off (which I expect; even the best of pitchers can't keep up those Chatt. numbers), he becomes less of a tradeable commodity. And whether or not you like the idea of trading Bailey, it's ALWAYS smart to treat your players as players AND commodities, because that's exactly what they are.

So, in my mind, it would be best to bring him up at some point early this season, let him take his lumps at the MLB level, and that way: 1. He'll likely contribute something to the 2007 team and 2. won't lose nearly the stature as a tradeable commodity as he would if he had a similar struggle at AAA.

RedsManRick
12-28-2006, 11:34 AM
One interesting thing about baseball is the relative level of success needed for pitchers vs. hitters in order to be successful.

Let's say for a second that 20% of the guys in AAA are major league capable. If you're a pitcher learning, that means 20% of the guys in the league should be successful against you with some regularity. You need to be successful more than 70% of the time to be effective. Add in the standard success rate of the "normal" AAA guys and suddenly that's a tall task.

However, if you're a hitter you only need to be successful 30% of the time. If you can beat the snot out of the 80% of "real" AAA guys, then you can be absolutely dominated by that special 20% and still look really really good.

Brandon Larson can go 4-4 with 2 HR against somebody who doesn't belong in AAA and then get dominated the next 2 nights and come out looking like an All Star. But if a pitcher goes out there and retires 6 of the 9 guys easily but gets hurt consistently by those other 3 guys, he's not going to look good at all. The hitter needs to succeed against the 70-80% of talent that isn't major league quality. The pitcher needs to succeed against the 20-30% that is.

The_jbh
01-04-2007, 02:36 PM
I am in the boat that says leave big time prospect in the minors until they force you to bring them up. That way you can get the most bang for your buck. The minute you bring them up the closer they are to arbitration. That is a big factor for small market teams.

Spoken like a perenial loser...

Competitive teams bring up prospects when they can make an impact, they dont worry about arbitartion when considering when to bring a guy up... Look at Oakland... Small market isnt an excuse to not try

Personally I think Bailey is going to blow away Spring Training and force a rotation spot and personally i think that is in the back of Krivsky's mind as well which is why hes sitting on his hands but thats pure speculation. I don't think being in the 5 spot would be bad for him because it would be a good way to regulate his innings... baby him a little early on. He'll get extra bullpen days so the pitching coach can work with him, work on weakness, work on consistency... maybe get an inning or two of bullpen time so he can cut loose and enjoy himself... I wouldnt object to throwing him in the 4 spot either because I see the positives of that arguement as well. I just dont think less innings and additional instruction with a major league staff is a bad idea...

I am a big Votto fan so take what I think about him however u'd like, but I think the Reds offense is going to be anemic in April and May and Votto will be brought up from AAA after tearing it up for two months to maybe bring some extra pop to the line up. I do not think there is anyway he can perfrom well enough to start opening day, however I do think a strong spring can give Hatteburg less time to produce at career highs like he did last year, either way Hatte will eventually be a great bench player for us.


Jay Bruce... who knows what can happen with him. It really depends where he starts this year, AA or High A... if its AA, who knows he could make a huge impact like Dunn and be here in August, but that is HIGHLY unlikely. I'd expect him at the end of the 2008 season... I think he'll split time between High A and AA this season, and make another run and minor league player of the year.

toledodan
01-10-2007, 01:07 AM
Spoken like a perenial loser...

Competitive teams bring up prospects when they can make an impact, they dont worry about arbitartion when considering when to bring a guy up... Look at Oakland... Small market isnt an excuse to not try

Personally I think Bailey is going to blow away Spring Training and force a rotation spot and personally i think that is in the back of Krivsky's mind as well which is why hes sitting on his hands but thats pure speculation. I don't think being in the 5 spot would be bad for him because it would be a good way to regulate his innings... baby him a little early on. He'll get extra bullpen days so the pitching coach can work with him, work on weakness, work on consistency... maybe get an inning or two of bullpen time so he can cut loose and enjoy himself... I wouldnt object to throwing him in the 4 spot either because I see the positives of that arguement as well. I just dont think less innings and additional instruction with a major league staff is a bad idea...

I am a big Votto fan so take what I think about him however u'd like, but I think the Reds offense is going to be anemic in April and May and Votto will be brought up from AAA after tearing it up for two months to maybe bring some extra pop to the line up. I do not think there is anyway he can perfrom well enough to start opening day, however I do think a strong spring can give Hatteburg less time to produce at career highs like he did last year, either way Hatte will eventually be a great bench player for us.


Jay Bruce... who knows what can happen with him. It really depends where he starts this year, AA or High A... if its AA, who knows he could make a huge impact like Dunn and be here in August, but that is HIGHLY unlikely. I'd expect him at the end of the 2008 season... I think he'll split time between High A and AA this season, and make another run and minor league player of the year.


great post!:thumbup:

IslandRed
01-10-2007, 11:14 AM
Competitive teams bring up prospects when they can make an impact, they dont worry about arbitartion when considering when to bring a guy up... Look at Oakland...

Oakland absolutely factors in service-time-related issues because their model requires maxing out the return on the player's cheap years. They don't bring up guys for on-the-job training if they can help it. They bring up players when they're ready to succeed. I don't think the point was to leave major-league-ready guys in the minors just to put off arbitration, but rather to acknowledge the reality of arbitration and free agency and not use the major leagues for OJT.

RedsManRick
01-10-2007, 02:19 PM
Let's make clear the difference between being ready to contribute and being ready to succeed. Is it ok if Homer comes up on June 1 and gives us 140 IP at a 5.00 ERA? I can pretty much guarantee you that that would add value to our staff. But it obviously is less than we'd expect from Homer long term. You don't want to, and can't always hold a guy out until he's as good as he's going to get.

I would argue that as soon as a guy can come up and contribute as a significant bench player (platoon) or starter, bring him up.

GoReds
01-10-2007, 03:09 PM
Tom Glavine debuted at age 21 (late callup), pitched 50.1 innings and provided a 5.54 ERA. Next year, he threw 195 innings with a 4.56 ERA, going 7-17.

Greg Maddux debuted at age 20 (late callup), pitched 31 innings with a 5.52 ERA. Next year, 155.2 IP and a 5.61 ERA going 6-14.

I don't know that Bailey is going to follow a career similar to Glavine, Maddux or Rick Ankiel. I DO know that when he does make it to the Reds that patience will need to applied in great doses.

IslandRed
01-10-2007, 04:18 PM
Let's make clear the difference between being ready to contribute and being ready to succeed. Is it ok if Homer comes up on June 1 and gives us 140 IP at a 5.00 ERA? I can pretty much guarantee you that that would add value to our staff. But it obviously is less than we'd expect from Homer long term. You don't want to, and can't always hold a guy out until he's as good as he's going to get.

I would argue that as soon as a guy can come up and contribute as a significant bench player (platoon) or starter, bring him up.

A June 1 callup wouldn't cause any problems. At that point, he still couldn't be a free agent until after 2013 and arbitration eligibility would be either following 2009 or 2010, depending on whether he qualified as a super-two, which is iffy enough that I wouldn't worry about it.

Putting him on the roster all year is another issue. We'd be advancing arbitration for sure; that's going to make him expensive a year earlier and make him more expensive at each year along the way than he would have been. And we'd be allowing him to reach free agency sooner. In effect, we'd be trading Homer's age-27 year -- when he would be in his career prime, insert usual disclaimers about if he gets that far -- for his age-21 year. A full season of 5.00 ERA would be an improvement over whoever he'd be bumping from the rotation. But is it going to get the team anywhere? Are the Reds in a place where it's going to matter, or would we be giving away a year of his career peak just so we can win 77 games this year instead of 75? Is that a smart trade?

June 1 would be just about right IMO if he continues pitching well. I'm admittedly a Bailey kool-aid drinker but I still want to see him build upon last year's gains before I pronounce him major-league ready.

toledodan
01-10-2007, 04:47 PM
Tom Glavine debuted at age 21 (late callup), pitched 50.1 innings and provided a 5.54 ERA. Next year, he threw 195 innings with a 4.56 ERA, going 7-17.

Greg Maddux debuted at age 20 (late callup), pitched 31 innings with a 5.52 ERA. Next year, 155.2 IP and a 5.61 ERA going 6-14.

I don't know that Bailey is going to follow a career similar to Glavine, Maddux or Rick Ankiel. I DO know that when he does make it to the Reds that patience will need to applied in great doses.



great point. look at a couple of pitchers from detroit that lost around 20 games each in 2003. they seem to have turned the corner after that. i would be more worried about his era than record in 2007. if he can keep the era close to 4.00 i would be happy even with a losing record. i'm not expecting a great reds team so a losing record would be possible.

Highlifeman21
01-21-2007, 08:51 AM
Why keep him down. So he learns how to pitch against major league rejects and AAAA players? He dominated AA ball where most of teams best prospects are. Throw him in the rotation, let him refine his game at the MLB level. He is going to struggle when he first gets up anyway. I doubt the kid has a weak psyche. If I were running the reds I would have both Baily and Votto penceled in on the MLB roster unless they have a woful spring.

Right now, Bailey has 2 pitches: his fastball he throws 80% of the time, and his curveball. He's trying to develop a 3rd pitch, but until he does so, he has no business on our 25 man roster wasting service days towards his arbitration clock.

Bailey is far from polished. Give him a season at AAA, then come talk to me.

The biggest mistake the Reds could make for 2007 is having Homer Bailey pitch in Cincinnati prior to September 1st.