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jamess697
12-28-2006, 08:38 PM
Let's face it with the way the market has gone the Reds just can't afford any remaining free agents. Also so many other teams are holding onto players because they can't afford to sign players either. So I anounce to you our 2007 Reds.

C David Ross/Valentin/Moeller
1B Scott Hatteberg/Conine
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez/Olmedo
3B Edwin Encarnacion/Castro
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr./Freel
RF Ryan Freel/Hopper/Crosby/Hamilton

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Eric Milton
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Homer Bailey/Rameriz

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Bill Bray
RP Mike Stanton
RP Brian Shackelford
RP David Weathers
RP Todd Coffey
RP Gary Majewski

RedsManRick
12-28-2006, 09:15 PM
17 position guys and 13 pitchers? That looks like a 30 man roster to me and it's missing Deno. Based on who we've got, I'm guessing:

C David Ross
1B Scott Hatteberg
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
RF Ryan Freel
Bench: Castro, Conine, Valentin, Deno, Hamilton

Key AAA options: Moeller, Olmedo, Hopper, Crosby, Votto, Gil

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Eric Milton
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Elizardo Ramirez

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Bill Bray
RP Mike Stanton
RP Jared Burton (rule 5)
RP David Weathers
RP Gary Majewski
CL Todd Coffey

Key AAA options: Shackleford, Bailey, Shafer, Salmon (maybe Kelly or Shearn but not on 40 man)

I'd actually guessing that Burton won't make the roster and will go back to the A's (and Salmon will take his spot), but at least for now, I'll put him there.

mth123
12-28-2006, 09:27 PM
17 position guys and 13 pitchers? That looks like a 30 man roster to me and it's missing Deno. Based on who we've got, I'm guessing:

C David Ross
1B Scott Hatteberg
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
RF Ryan Freel
Bench: Castro, Conine, Valentin, Deno, Hamilton

Key AAA options: Moeller, Olmedo, Hopper, Crosby, Votto, Gil

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Eric Milton
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Elizardo Ramirez

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Bill Bray
RP Mike Stanton
RP Jared Burton (rule 5)
RP David Weathers
RP Gary Majewski
CL Todd Coffey

Key AAA options: Shackleford, Bailey, Shafer, Salmon (maybe Kelly or Shearn but not on 40 man)

I'd actually guessing that Burton won't make the roster and will go back to the A's (and Salmon will take his spot), but at least for now, I'll put him there.

Pretty close. What about Belisle?

Will M
12-28-2006, 09:28 PM
My version ( slightly different )

C David Ross/Valentin
1B Scott Hatteberg/Conine ( Votto likely starts in AAA )
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Chris Denorfia
RF Ken Griffey Jr./Freel

Util IF: Castro
Bench/AAA: Moeller/Hopper/Crosby/Hamilton/Olmedo

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Eric Milton
SP Ramirez or Belisle ( Homer Bailey definitely starts in AAA )

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Bill Bray
RP Mike Stanton
RP David Weathers
RP Todd Coffey
RP Gary Majewski
RP Belisle or ?

Falls City Beer
12-28-2006, 09:29 PM
When you look at that squad in all its glory, it's even less impressive. Yuck. :stratton: :obrien: :drink: :barf:

edabbs44
12-28-2006, 11:51 PM
They're already selling the 2007 Reds season video.

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B000002WPW.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

Shaknb8k
12-29-2006, 12:02 AM
17 position guys and 13 pitchers? That looks like a 30 man roster to me and it's missing Deno. Based on who we've got, I'm guessing:

C David Ross
1B Scott Hatteberg
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
RF Ryan Freel
Bench: Castro, Conine, Valentin, Deno, Hamilton

Key AAA options: Moeller, Olmedo, Hopper, Crosby, Votto, Gil

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Eric Milton
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Elizardo Ramirez

RP Rheal Cormier
RP Bill Bray
RP Mike Stanton
RP Jared Burton (rule 5)
RP David Weathers
RP Gary Majewski
CL Todd Coffey

Key AAA options: Shackleford, Bailey, Shafer, Salmon (maybe Kelly or Shearn but not on 40 man)

I'd actually guessing that Burton won't make the roster and will go back to the A's (and Salmon will take his spot), but at least for now, I'll put him there.

I think you have hit the nail on the head....maybe put Belisle in for Burton. Im not as doom and gloom as most people on here when i look at the roster. Would like to see another Starter in there and another Reliever. Dont care really about the offense. It will be league avg. or a little below. But a good offense has got us nowhere in the past few years. If Dunn is half as good as what some people make him out to be then he should be able carry the whole team's offense. But thats already been beat to death.

If this team is out of it at the deadline then trade Dunn, Arroyo, Harang (if he wont agree to a long term deal), Hatteberg, and any reliever not named Bray. Im talking they should go Florida Marlins on this roster.

But in all honesty I believe they will be a lot better than expected cause I believe people are going to be shocked at how much the offense produces....im not talking league leading offense but an above avg. offense.

UGADaddy
12-29-2006, 01:32 AM
For those of you who think HB's starting the season in Cincy or that KGJ is going start the season somewhere other than CF (and 3 or 4 hole), you're crazy. HB isn't ready for the bigs yet. Give him at least a few months, if not a season, in Louisville. As for Griff, I'd love to see him in RF and batting fifth or sixth, but it's just not going to happen...

remdog
12-29-2006, 08:06 AM
That roster is a Pittsburgh Pirates fans' wet dream: finally a team that they have a chance to finish ahead of. :eek:

Rem

Ltlabner
12-29-2006, 09:50 AM
What about that Livingston kid we picked up from Seatle. Or is he on a minor league contract? I can't remember.

Ltlabner
12-29-2006, 09:59 AM
Here's the answer to my question about Bobby Livingston. He's on the 40 man roster.


"He's close to the Major Leagues," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "He got a taste of it. We like his athletic ability and durability. He's a strike thrower and competes well. We think he's on the cusp on being in a Major League rotation. He'll be competition with our other starters."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061214&content_id=1761331&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

RedsManRick
12-29-2006, 10:08 AM
Oops -- I did forget Belisle. Unfortunately, that even further underscores the ridiculousness of signing Stanton for two years. WK should realize we don't need more arms, we need better ones.

edabbs44
12-29-2006, 10:10 AM
Here's the answer to my question about Bobby Livingston.



http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061214&content_id=1761331&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

70 wins is a pipe dream at this point.

There is no reason why this guy should legitimately be in competition for a rotation spot. He's only 24. Narron would be giving this guy the hook by the 3rd inning for Stanton and Cormier.

Ltlabner
12-29-2006, 10:19 AM
70 wins is a pipe dream at this point.

There is no reason why this guy should legitimately be in competition for a rotation spot. He's only 24. Narron would be giving this guy the hook by the 3rd inning for Stanton and Cormier.

The Lizzard is only 24. Should he also not be in competition for a starting spot? I thought being too old was a bad thing. Now the complaint is too young? I'm confused.

That he has zero (or slightly more than zero) major league experince is better reason, to me, that his chance of making the rotation out of ST is slim. However, if he spends some time in AAA he might be a low risk/decent reward sort of guy to have around.

edabbs44
12-29-2006, 10:38 AM
The Lizzard is only 24. Should he also not be in competition for a starting spot? I thought being too old was a bad thing. Now the complaint is too young? I'm confused.

That he has zero (or slightly more than zero) major league experince is better reason, to me, that his chance of making the rotation out of ST is slim. However, if he spends some time in AAA he might be a low risk/decent reward sort of guy to have around.

It was just a little sarcasm for the way Narron treats youngsters.

Personally, I think EZ should be given a shot.

WVRedsFan
12-29-2006, 11:44 AM
When you look at that squad in all its glory, it's even less impressive. Yuck. :stratton: :obrien: :drink: :barf:

In all seriousness, this team, with all the trades and changes, is not that much better than the team that took the field on opening day of 2006. In fact, in many ways it's worse.

The only real overall improvement I see is Phillips at second base, providing he plays at the level he did last year. I see weakness at first base (essentialy a Aurilia for Conine) in that the average age of that position is now about 39. Unless Gonzo gets a new injection of patience at the plate and fields over his head (and many people who are Red Sox fans say he is not all that), that's a downgrade. The tandem of Freel and Denorfia in the outfield, regardless of thoughts about OBP just doesn't add up to what was on the field last April. At the catching position, we're betting that Ross will continue his pace of last year and I just don't see it not to mention his defensive problems. We still don't have an acceptable starting staff (after Harang and Arroyo, we still have Milton. We're going to depend on Kyle Lohse (big mistake) which leaves the 5th starting position in limbo. That is an improvement over Claussen and Williams meltdowns, but only marginally. The bullpen looks better on paper, but how much better will they be? We still need a closer.

With the weak NL Central, we could still contend, but I fear that the fortunate April we had last year will only be a distant memory and we'll drift back to constant, stead sub-.500 baseball as it has been for 6 long years.

What really sucks is that this time of year I'm usually optimistic, but no longer. Unless moves are made during ST, we are looking at a really long season. Of course, we'e been waiting for the Krivsky magic to kick in, but I think, like the Wizard of Oz, the curtain has fallen down and what we've found is business as usual. Retreads and prayers without putting out any real cash (unless you add up all the salaries of these retreads, then it opens your eyes). It's kind of like a longtime Reds fan told me over Christmas. "Just pray. We've got to hope for Divine intervention."

Ltlabner
12-29-2006, 12:06 PM
It was just a little sarcasm for the way Narron treats youngsters.

Personally, I think EZ should be given a shot.

Oh..sorry. I have been on vaction for the last 13 days so my sarcasim detector is dusty.

I agree. I'd like to see Livinston, Lizzard, and the cast of chaciters in AAA all get a serrious consideration for the #5 spot.

DoogMinAmo
12-29-2006, 12:43 PM
The more rest Milton and his knee gets, the better he pitches. Make him the #5 starter, bump up Lohse to #3 (or get someone better) and have the cast vie it out for the #4 spot (I think regular reps would help the Lizard more). That is the secret to maximizing what the Reds have right now in the rotation.

edabbs44
12-29-2006, 01:11 PM
Oh..sorry. I have been on vaction for the last 13 days so my sarcasim detector is dusty.

I agree. I'd like to see Livinston, Lizzard, and the cast of chaciters in AAA all get a serrious consideration for the #5 spot.

I want EZ to get a shot, but with Lohse, Milty and Mr. X in contention for regular spots I would be shopping Arroyo. With that rotation, my faith in making a serious run in '07 is limited at best.

BRM
12-29-2006, 01:37 PM
I don't think Wayne is finished yet. I can see him adding a few more spare parts before April. I don't think we'll see any major acquisitions though.

Sean_CaseyRules
12-29-2006, 02:00 PM
I like the Lizard, I say give him a couple years and he will be a very good pitcher. He has shown us that he can be a good pitcher, but our offense had taken a day off when he pitched last year and he got no run support at all.

remdog
12-29-2006, 03:01 PM
I don't think Wayne is finished yet. I can see him adding a few more spare parts before April. I don't think we'll see any major acquisitions though.

Unfortunately, this team needs more than spare parts.

Rem

BigRed
12-29-2006, 04:49 PM
Face it, this is probably as good as it gets. Maybe a bench player, #5 starter or another mediocre bullpen arm is all we can expect. The best hope for anything positive is if Bray emerges as a good closer and Bailey makes the roster by midseason. They might bring back Guardado to help later in the season, but I am not expecting much out of the team. The offense does not look good at all and the pitching has not improved.

RedsManRick
12-29-2006, 05:13 PM
Unfortunately, this team needs more than spare parts.

Rem

Yup. I agree 100%. At this point, barring a major trade, it's just shuffling deck chairs. My quick and dirty assessment sees a team capable of winning anywhere between 68-84 games and most likely a number in the low 70's.

As for Elizardo, he showed a decent K rate, solid K/BB and BB/9, and kept the ball in the yard at a decent rate. His problem was simple -- he allowed too many hits. Part of the that can be attributed to a Reds team that was 4th worst in the NL at converting balls in play to outs. I'm not sure why this was, but he certainly fell apart late in the year after the ill-fated Philly series.

I see no reason why, if we can put a decent defense behind him, that he can't be effective in the mold of other off-speed & control guys like Radke, Moyer, and Lieber.

BRM
12-29-2006, 07:52 PM
Unfortunately, this team needs more than spare parts.

Rem

I agree completely.

Redhook
12-30-2006, 12:45 AM
Unfortunately, this team needs more than spare parts.

Rem

And on top of that, this team is a couple of injuries away from being one the worst, if the not the worst, teams in baseball in 2007. No depth whatsoever.

Depressingly putrid.

Falls City Beer
12-30-2006, 09:53 AM
And on top of that, this team is a couple of injuries away from being one the worst, if the not the worst, teams in baseball in 2007. No depth whatsoever.

Depressingly putrid.

Good point.

Tom Servo
12-30-2006, 11:13 AM
As for Elizardo, he showed a decent K rate, solid K/BB and BB/9, and kept the ball in the yard at a decent rate. His problem was simple -- he allowed too many hits. Part of the that can be attributed to a Reds team that was 4th worst in the NL at converting balls in play to outs. I'm not sure why this was, but he certainly fell apart late in the year after the ill-fated Philly series.

Everyone brings up the series against Philadelphia as Elizardo's downfall but really it was just the final nail in the coffin. He had gotten completly pounded by the Dodgers and Cardinals in his two starts before that and was on thin ice to begin with.Then he blew the first Phillies game and started the game the next day where he was bombed and was sent down.

Falls City Beer
12-30-2006, 11:20 AM
Everyone brings up the series against Philadelphia as Elizardo's downfall but really it was just the final nail in the coffin. He had gotten completly pounded by the Dodgers and Cardinals in his two starts before that and was on thin ice to begin with.Then he blew the first Phillies game and started the game the next day where he was bombed and was sent down.

This is right.

Either he had an injury that he continued to pitch with or teams had begun to figure him out. I'm guessing the latter, based upon his stuff and pitch selection.

reds44
12-31-2006, 01:25 AM
I think you have hit the nail on the head....maybe put Belisle in for Burton. Im not as doom and gloom as most people on here when i look at the roster. Would like to see another Starter in there and another Reliever. Dont care really about the offense. It will be league avg. or a little below. But a good offense has got us nowhere in the past few years. If Dunn is half as good as what some people make him out to be then he should be able carry the whole team's offense. But thats already been beat to death.

If this team is out of it at the deadline then trade Dunn, Arroyo, Harang (if he wont agree to a long term deal), Hatteberg, and any reliever not named Bray. Im talking they should go Florida Marlins on this roster.

But in all honesty I believe they will be a lot better than expected cause I believe people are going to be shocked at how much the offense produces....im not talking league leading offense but an above avg. offense.
You basically sumed up all of my thoughts in your post. I agree 100 percent with everything you said.

reds44
12-31-2006, 01:28 AM
This is right.

Either he had an injury that he continued to pitch with or teams had begun to figure him out. I'm guessing the latter, based upon his stuff and pitch selection.

Here is a post I made over at the ORG:


I am a big Lizard fan, and I think he just hit some sort of wall last year.

Look at his starts:
7 IP, 2 ER
6 IP, 3 ER
4 IP, 1 ER (6 unearned, 7 total)
6 IP, 2 ER
5 IP, 3 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
6 IP, 2 ER
6 IP, 3 ER
8 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
6.1 IP, 2 ER
5 IP, 6 ER
6 IP, 3 ER
6 IP, 3 ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6.2 IP, 1 ER

At that point, he had thrown 95 innings as a starter and given up 44 earned runs. That's a 4.10 ERA. That's very good.

Then we hit August.

4.2 IP, 5 ER
1.2 IP, 6 ER
0.1 IP, 1 ER (not a start)
1.1 IP, 5 ER

That is 8 IP and 17 ER. That is a 19.10 ERA.

He ended up throwing 103 innings, and giving up 61 ER. That is an ERA of 5.33 You can see what those 4 appearances in August did to him.

In 2003, he threw 157 innings in A ball. In 2004 he threw 138 innings combined. In 2005, 153. Last year he threw 124 innings in A (1 start), AAA, and in Cincinnati. The question is, did he hit a wall or did they figure him out? I just find it hard to believe he pitched so well in 95 innnings, and it just fell apart for him in August.
I just have a hard time believing that he pitched 95 good innings, and then they figured him out like that. He went from pitching well, to terrible in a heartbeat. I have to think ti was something other then being figured out.

Sean_CaseyRules
12-31-2006, 01:30 AM
The offense isn't what scares me, its the bullpen, that has been our main weakness for the last couple years, and you may call me a glass half full guy, but I believe we can put 2 good halfs together this year and make the playoffs and maybe make a little run, depending on the health issues with the team at that point in time.

WVRedsFan
12-31-2006, 03:57 AM
Here is a post I made over at the ORG:


I just have a hard time believing that he pitched 95 good innings, and then they figured him out like that. He went from pitching well, to terrible in a heartbeat. I have to think ti was something other then being figured out.

Exactly. I think it all goes back to the management of the pitching staff. While many bring up the Philly series, it is more than likely the key. Lizard was a rookie and Narron, without the benefit of a pitching coach, decided to pitch him in a game without any hope of having him fresh the next day. The result was disastrous. Jerry Narron has no idea how to manage anything. At this late hour, i cannot remember his options, but I do remember there were some and he decided to go with Elizardo. He should have either gone somewhere else (and I admit that might not have been possible) or started someone else the next day. The rookie mind is fragile. He had a few bad games prior and now you put him in that position? He set him up to fail. And he did. So off he goes to the minors to work on what? Learning how to relieve in one game and start the next day?

By this time, Narron and Krivsky were grasping at straws to stay in contention and made some very poor decisions from "the Trade" to any number of other things. Yet, Narron and Krivsky seem to have this bond and I have to call it inexperience for a loss of calling it anything else. You have to admit that neither man had been in this position before--in the middle of a pennant race and both didn't fare so well.

None the less, we still have both and wish them well, but all the same time wondering how this bunch can suceed with this kind of thinking. As many wish for a tremendous spring for Krivsky in making moves, I contend that we have seen his best and his best is iffy at best. I somehow get the feeling that another Minnesota retread will sideline Elizardo for all time., Why? Just because Wayne likes what he's seen before. And that scares the bejusus out of me.

mth123
12-31-2006, 07:23 AM
Exactly. I think it all goes back to the management of the pitching staff. While many bring up the Philly series, it is more than likely the key. Lizard was a rookie and Narron, without the benefit of a pitching coach, decided to pitch him in a game without any hope of having him fresh the next day. The result was disastrous. Jerry Narron has no idea how to manage anything. At this late hour, i cannot remember his options, but I do remember there were some and he decided to go with Elizardo. He should have either gone somewhere else (and I admit that might not have been possible) or started someone else the next day. The rookie mind is fragile. He had a few bad games prior and now you put him in that position? He set him up to fail. And he did. So off he goes to the minors to work on what? Learning how to relieve in one game and start the next day?

By this time, Narron and Krivsky were grasping at straws to stay in contention and made some very poor decisions from "the Trade" to any number of other things. Yet, Narron and Krivsky seem to have this bond and I have to call it inexperience for a loss of calling it anything else. You have to admit that neither man had been in this position before--in the middle of a pennant race and both didn't fare so well.

None the less, we still have both and wish them well, but all the same time wondering how this bunch can suceed with this kind of thinking. As many wish for a tremendous spring for Krivsky in making moves, I contend that we have seen his best and his best is iffy at best. I somehow get the feeling that another Minnesota retread will sideline Elizardo for all time., Why? Just because Wayne likes what he's seen before. And that scares the bejusus out of me.

The Phillies pitched Ramirez 157 innings as a 20 year old in A+ ball. The year before he had thrown 73 innings. That is a pretty good jump in innings pitched at that age. I have to wonder if he hasn't been pitching in some level of pain all along and it finally (thanks to Narron) became unbearable. Since his surgery wasn't anything major, maybe that little surgical adjustment will get him back to being better than ever. Maybe he had some pain that he thought was normal after being abused at such a young age.

Honestly, when you look at pitching around baseball, a 23 year old kid who is cheap and keeps you in the game at the number 5 slot is better than most teams can do. Some team is going to pay Steve Trachsel $5 Million to do the same thing.

If Ramirez comes back healthy I have no problem with him. The Reds need to upgrade the number 3 slot and it should have been the focus of the off season (along with adding a full time stop gap with power at 1B). Teams like the Reds need guys like Ramirez who can hold down a spot in the bottom of the rotation at comparably better numbers than most other bottom of the rotation guys for cheap. I'll take the pre-injury Ramirez in my 4 or 5 slot at his price every year. Its the two guys who combine to make $15 Million and are also no better than number 4 or 5 starters that are the problem (see Milton, Eric and Lohse, Kyle).

When teams talk about pitching depth in the minors, it usually means having a lot of guys like Ramirez coming up through the pipeline every year or two. You put them in the bottom of rotation for cheap, let them go when they get expensive and stick in the next one. The Reds can afford quality in the top 3 spots of the rotation when they have guys like Ramirez filling out the bottom for low $. When you have to pay $15 Million for bottom of the rotation type pitchers that is when you don't have the money for the other spots. Unfortunately, the Reds haven't even produced a Ramirez type pitcher in about 10 years (Brett Tomko).

Highlifeman21
12-31-2006, 03:56 PM
I like the Lizard, I say give him a couple years and he will be a very good pitcher. He has shown us that he can be a good pitcher, but our offense had taken a day off when he pitched last year and he got no run support at all.


He's also shown us that he's a very immature pitcher largely due to age, and that he doesn't have the stamina to be a MLB starter. My only hope for him is that he can make a name for himself as a solid bullpen guy. When he's on, he has some pretty decent stuff. The only problem is that he's not consistenly on.

Sean_CaseyRules
01-01-2007, 02:53 AM
The only problem is that he's not consistenly on.


That's the reason i said give him a couple years