View Full Version : Who is RedsZone's #4 Prospect?

12-29-2006, 09:53 PM
The #3 spot seems to be another runaway, so we have:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto

Things should start getting interesting soon.

12-29-2006, 10:10 PM
This should be another runaway. Cueto's the man. :cool:

12-29-2006, 10:15 PM
Call me crazy, but I'm voting for Stubbs. Years of being a Reds fan have taught me too much about the injury minefield that young pitchers have to traverse. Stubbs needs to make some adjustments to his swing; I'm betting he can do that. The other tools are there in abundance.

Scrap Irony
12-29-2006, 10:38 PM
If you're going to go offensive, chico, then Valaika is your man. His bat is supoerior to Stubbs in all facets, with the possible exception of HR power. Too, he can play a middle infield position (SS), at least at this point. Both were college guys in Rookie League and Valaika doesn't K much at all up to this point.

Yes, Stubbs is talented, but, then again, so was Drew Henson.

(BTW, because my Cueto argument was obviously not persuasive enough in the last round, he's my vote again this round.) Great arm, great year. Only question, at this point, is his frame.

At worst, Cueto looks like a probable late inning reliever, a la Little Man Gordon.

12-29-2006, 10:44 PM
I voted for Travis Wood - he exceeded expectations by: a) pitching the whole year without sustaining an arm injury; b) pitching the whole year at A ball as a 19 yr old; c) improving his breaking pitch; d) not overthrowing his fastball - I think he has a plus fastball - but worked on his secondary pitches. I think he will be a starting pitcher for the Reds debuting in 2009 or 2010.

Homer's Ghost
12-29-2006, 10:45 PM
I voted Cueto 3rd, so I'll vote him again. I would have Votto #4 personally.

12-29-2006, 10:49 PM
Wood and Cueto are very close. I went with Cueto because:

1. Half Season in A+ with some success. Wood still hasn't pitched in A+.
2. Wood's walk rate jumped by almost an entire walk per nine in 2006 at low A.

I wonder if Wood will be fooling them less the higher he goes. A rising walk rate may not mean much or could mean a lot of things. I wonder if it means he gets guys out by chasing and the higher he goes, the less they chase. If so, that doesn't bode well for success at higher levels. (Cueto has the problem too but his walk rate is still lower at a higher level.)

Not much else to differentiate these guys (K rates and HR rates very similar), so right or wrong, I go with Cueto at 4 and will go with Wood at 5 when its posted.

12-29-2006, 11:27 PM
I voted Travis Wood, but by a slim margin over Cueto.
1. He is a year younger and they both started the season at the same level.
2. He is left handed with an advanced change up.
3. Over the last two seasons he has thrown about the same innings (188 to 187), but his 2 year numbers are better.
4. They allowed nearly the same amount of HR while in Dayton together, but again, Cueto was a year older.

12-29-2006, 11:35 PM
Cueto is my choice.

Electric stuff, electric arm. Great control, keeps the ball in the yard. I think he's among one of the topp 100 prospects in baseball.

12-30-2006, 01:24 AM
3. Over the last two seasons he has thrown

Always something you want to see out of your pitching prospects. ;)

Wood's changeup made a lot of Low A batters look like crap last year, but his drop in velocity and inconsistent curveball leave a few too many question marks for my taste. Cueto may be a year older, but he's got 3 good pitches and can throw it over the plate. There's not as much to worry about with him other than his size. Wood's cieling is right up there with a Cole Hamels in my opinion, but Cueto has much less of a downside at this point.

12-30-2006, 01:36 AM
I've got Wood. ;) I have never gotten to see any of these guys play, but based on what I read, I would think that Wood is #4.

12-30-2006, 01:42 AM
Always something you want to see out of your pitching prospects. ;)

Hahahahaha. I am not sure what happened to the other part of my post, but I swear it was there when I hit the enter button to go to the next one.

12-30-2006, 02:10 AM
A former Number 1 draft pick is my choice. Yes I realize that he hasn't played much but the guy was obviously electric just a few years ago. He might end up replacing Kearns this season and making us forget the huge blemish on Wayne's record. Call me crazy but I think the one area that WayneK excels in is finding gems that no one else wants. Hamilton is 2007s Phillips....

12-30-2006, 04:14 AM
1) Homer Bailey
2) Jay Bruce
3) Joey Votto
4) Johnny Cueto

I went with Cueto over Wood by a very slight margin. Wood's age tempted me to vote for him, and I could probably go either way. Cueto fared a little better in walk rate and home run rate at Dayton, and he also had a pretty solid half season in high A-ball.

12-30-2006, 06:31 AM
A former Number 1 draft pick is my choice. Yes I realize that he hasn't played much but the guy was obviously electric just a few years ago. He might end up replacing Kearns this season and making us forget the huge blemish on Wayne's record. Call me crazy but I think the one area that WayneK excels in is finding gems that no one else wants. Hamilton is 2007s Phillips....

You could be very correct. With Griffey's health issues and the need for power I could see Hamilton getting more ABs than we imagine. I can't put him ahead of the top 5 though just because the Reds can't send him down to develop. He's not a finished product and has a lot of rust to shake off. He could also revert and wash out due to his lifestyle. If he overcomes all the negatives he could be better than all of them, but there is a lot more going against him than the others.

12-30-2006, 10:09 AM
I go with Wood over Cueto, barely. I like the combination of lefthandedness and an excellent changeup.

12-30-2006, 12:42 PM
Wood, but just because he's a lefty... I like both about the same

12-30-2006, 01:01 PM
I'm excited as having Josh Hamilton as the next, but his last significant baseball experience was putting up a .303/.359.507 as a 21 year old in high A with a troubling strikeout rate. He'll be 26 in May. Frankly, I'd be impressed by an .800+ OPS in AA, and some people think he can breakout at the major league level?

Anyways, I voted for Cueto though he and Wood are functionally even in my mind. I'm most excited to see if Janish can repeat his Howie Kendrick-eque performance.

12-30-2006, 01:28 PM
This is a good exercise since it makes you think about each prospect in depth. Wood gave up 14 home runs in A ball, by far the most on the team. Was very impressed with Cueto's performance late in the season at High A. So have to give him the edge.

As you go through the list, you wonder whether the Reds' system has improved that much. The top three guys are great, maybe even the top 5, but after that it's hard to find bona fide top ten list candidates.

In dealing with minor league guys, I often wonder if there are unknowns in the system who the FO really project much higher but just don't hype right now.

Last year's draft seems to have added a lot of depth in the organization, but I wonder if anyone will emerge as a true top ten candidate. I think next season will say a lot (as each season does).

12-30-2006, 03:10 PM
Cueto is my vote. Its close with him and Wood and Stubbs.

12-30-2006, 09:23 PM
FYI, since this one is not quite the runaway the others have been, I'll probably wait until tomorrow to post poll #5.

12-30-2006, 09:53 PM
I voted Wood

Ron Madden
12-30-2006, 10:06 PM
I went with....

!. Bailey
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Cueto

Will M
12-30-2006, 11:14 PM
I voted for Cueto , then saw that he was getting ~50% of the votes.
I don't know whether this is good or bad. :)

12-31-2006, 01:46 AM
I gotta give it too Wood. Just watching him pitch he seems to have that maturity as a pitcher already, in short he's a pitcher and not a thrower already IMHO. Plus he's a very good defender and seems to exude both confidence and an A+ level of competitive fire. He really does remind me of a young Tom Glavine with maybe a slight tick higher athleticism.

Combine those commodities with his talent and too me he's a sure fire Major Leaguer at some point if he can avoid injury. This is assuming he continues to improve his pitches which likely wouldn't be from a lack of effort if he didn't.

I like Hamilton and Cueto also, it was close and if it weren't for my fondness for Wood's style of play I may have chosen one of them. Who knows what '07will bring but hopefully some more exclamation points!

12-31-2006, 02:22 AM
Good question, KC. I've been thinking about doing a study about where the best players in the league came from. Who is great that we just plain "missed"? Is there a pattern to the type of guy who slips through the scouting cracks?

12-31-2006, 10:39 PM
Cueto over Wood for one reason.


I know no in depth details about either, but my feeling is Wood had access to better instruction. That makes Cueto's accomplishments all the more impressive.