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View Full Version : What would you be willing to give to bring Johan Santana to Cincy for 2008?



savafan
12-30-2006, 03:46 PM
How much money would you offer him on the free-agent market next year if you were Wayne Krivsky?

As a result of Barry Zito's deal, the Minneapolis Star Tribune's sees no chance of Johan Santana still being in a Twins uniform come 2008.
Not that one had a lot to do with the other -- it's a simple fact that a healthy Santana would get far and away the largest deal ever for a pitcher should he sell himself to the high bidder. Still, Santana gave up his first two years of free agency to the Twins at a rather inexpensive rate (he signed a four-year, $40 million contract prior to 2005), and with the new ballpark opening up, the Twins should be able to make a fair offer to keep him beyond 2008. If Santana does become available in trade next winter, he's probably the one player the Yankees would give up Philip Hughes to bring in.
Source: Minneapolis Star Tribune

Krusty
12-30-2006, 04:11 PM
How much money would you offer him on the free-agent market next year if you were Wayne Krivsky?

As a result of Barry Zito's deal, the Minneapolis Star Tribune's sees no chance of Johan Santana still being in a Twins uniform come 2008.
Not that one had a lot to do with the other -- it's a simple fact that a healthy Santana would get far and away the largest deal ever for a pitcher should he sell himself to the high bidder. Still, Santana gave up his first two years of free agency to the Twins at a rather inexpensive rate (he signed a four-year, $40 million contract prior to 2005), and with the new ballpark opening up, the Twins should be able to make a fair offer to keep him beyond 2008. If Santana does become available in trade next winter, he's probably the one player the Yankees would give up Philip Hughes to bring in.
Source: Minneapolis Star Tribune

Guaranteed that Santana would command $20 million a season.

Tom Servo
12-30-2006, 04:14 PM
http://www.arizonaballoon.com/images/BannerBankMoneyBagsmall.jpg

savafan
12-30-2006, 04:15 PM
Guaranteed that Santana would command $20 million a season.

But would it be worth it? Think of a 2008 rotation of:

Santana
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Who cares?

jmac
12-30-2006, 05:02 PM
But would it be worth it? Think of a 2008 rotation of:

Santana
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Who cares?

there are big name pitchers out there commanding and getting big money...zito included.
The cream of the crop is Santana and then Halliday.
Would santana be worth it ? In all actuality is any pitcher worth 20 million ? no.
However in the current baseball world of inflating contracts ? yes !
As you stated above....give me those first 4 and then spot 5 can be filled with Haynes/Hamilton/Milton/Anderson (did i say him?) etc or even a Redszoner and the NL Central would be ours !

Spitball
12-30-2006, 05:07 PM
But, would Santana be worth a seven year contract at $20 million? I'm not sure of the ramifications if he breaks down after a couple of years.

savafan
12-30-2006, 05:09 PM
But, would Santana be worth a seven year contract at $20 million? I'm not sure of the ramifications if he breaks down after a couple of years.

Insure the contract in case of injury.

savafan
12-30-2006, 05:10 PM
As you stated above....give me those first 4 and then spot 5 can be filled with Haynes/Hamilton/Milton/Anderson (did i say him?) etc or even a Redszoner and the NL Central would be ours !

I'd go so far as to say the Reds would have the best starting rotation in MLB.

Spitball
12-30-2006, 05:19 PM
Insure the contract in case of injury.

That would work, unless Cincinnati Chili from the Zito thread is not wrong:

You're assuming they found someone to insure this contract. My recollection is that ASU and some of the big insurers are now refusing to insure pitching contracts that are this long.

Maybe I'm wrong.

flyer85
12-30-2006, 05:22 PM
I would say he will get 7 years and $160M

RedsManRick
12-30-2006, 05:24 PM
I would do 100 mil, 4 years. Call me crazy if you must, but it protects us from injury long term and makes him as much money as he'll get anywhere.

That said, if he hits FA, I expect one of the big cities (LAA or NYM are my guesses) to give him 24-25 per for 7-8 years.

Falls City Beer
12-30-2006, 05:25 PM
We're as likely to build marshmallow castles in the clouds and feed pixies on our abnormally-long nose perches.

Jpup
12-30-2006, 05:35 PM
the funniest thing is that they paper thinks Phillip Hughes is worth mentioning in the same world as Johan Santana.

Highlifeman21
12-30-2006, 05:40 PM
the funniest thing is that they paper thinks Phillip Hughes is worth mentioning in the same world as Johan Santana.

Ah yes, Phillip Hughes, the Yankee savior...

Who do you think turns out to be the bigger bust, Phillip Hughes or Homer Bailey?

Jpup
12-30-2006, 05:42 PM
Ah yes, Phillip Hughes, the Yankee savior...

Who do you think turns out to be the bigger bust, Phillip Hughes or Homer Bailey?

Todd Van Poppel

savafan
12-30-2006, 05:52 PM
Todd Van Poppel

or Brandon Claussen...

Oh yeah, there was that other Yankees stud pitching prospect, what was his name...Brien Taylor?

George Anderson
12-30-2006, 06:00 PM
or Brandon Claussen...

Oh yeah, there was that other Yankees stud pitching prospect, what was his name...Brien Taylor?

Taylor was a yankee prospect who hurt his arm I believe in a bar fight. He was signed out of High School with a bonus of 1.5 million or so. Solid pick by the Bronx Bombers there!!

jmac
12-30-2006, 06:39 PM
We're as likely to build marshmallow castles in the clouds and feed pixies on our abnormally-long nose perches.

so what are you tryin to say ? :D

Handofdeath
12-30-2006, 06:57 PM
We're as likely to build marshmallow castles in the clouds and feed pixies on our abnormally-long nose perches.

Dude, that is from, like, my favorite Pink Floyd song. :D

Newman4
12-30-2006, 08:15 PM
Well if you're looking for payroll flexibility, two of these three will be off the books after this season and the other after 2008:

Ken Griffey Jr. of
9 years/$116.5M (2000-08), plus $16.5M 2009 club option

00-08:$12.5M/year, 09:$16.5M club option ($4M buyout)
$57.5M in salary deferred at 4% interest, to be paid 2009-2024, reducing contract's present-day value at time of signing to between $9.2M and $9.3M annually, according to Reds management sources
$5.5M of 2000 salary deferred
$6.5M/year of 2001-2008 salaries deferred
agent: Brian Goldberg
ML service: 17.000

Eric Milton p
3 years/$25.5M (2005-07), plus incentives

$4M signing bonus
05:$4M, 06:$8.5M, 07:$9M
may opt out of final season (2007) by hitting incentives
4 years/$21M (2001-04), plus $0.85M incentives
01:$2.15M, 02:$3.85, 03:$6M, 04:$9M
agent: Casey Close, IMG
ML service: 8.000

Adam Dunn of
2 years/$18.5M (2006-07), plus $13M 2008 club option

re-signed 2/06, avoided arbitration ($8.95M-$7.1M)
06:$7.5M, 07:$10.5M, 08:$13M club option ($0.5M buyout)

1 year/$4.6M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
1 year/$0.445M (2004), re-signed 3/04
1 year/$0.4M (2003) 3/03
agent: Brian Peters
ML service: 4.074

Krusty
12-30-2006, 08:45 PM
Giving a starting pitcher 5 + years on a contract is playing Russian roulette.

Didn't these owners learn anything from the Driefort, Hampton, Neagle and Kevin Brown signings?

Newman4
12-30-2006, 08:52 PM
Kevin Brown pitched pretty good for the money. 3.00 ERA or lower every year except 2002 when he was hurt.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1999 LA 35 35 5 1 252.1 210 99 84 19 59 221 18 9 0 0 -- 3.00
2000 LA 33 33 5 1 230.0 181 76 66 21 47 216 13 6 0 0 -- 2.58
2001 LA 20 19 1 0 115.2 94 41 34 8 38 104 10 4 0 0 -- 2.65
2002 LA 17 10 0 0 63.2 68 36 34 9 23 58 3 4 0 1 -- 4.81
2003 LA 32 32 0 0 211.0 184 67 56 11 56 185 14 9 0 0 -- 2.39

Jpup
12-31-2006, 05:49 AM
Kevin Brown pitched pretty good for the money. 3.00 ERA or lower every year except 2002 when he was hurt.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1999 LA 35 35 5 1 252.1 210 99 84 19 59 221 18 9 0 0 -- 3.00
2000 LA 33 33 5 1 230.0 181 76 66 21 47 216 13 6 0 0 -- 2.58
2001 LA 20 19 1 0 115.2 94 41 34 8 38 104 10 4 0 0 -- 2.65
2002 LA 17 10 0 0 63.2 68 36 34 9 23 58 3 4 0 1 -- 4.81
2003 LA 32 32 0 0 211.0 184 67 56 11 56 185 14 9 0 0 -- 2.39

He pitched well but, as you see, he missed a bunch of starts in 2001 and 2002.

savafan
12-31-2006, 07:16 AM
Giving a starting pitcher 5 + years on a contract is playing Russian roulette.

Didn't these owners learn anything from the Driefort, Hampton, Neagle and Kevin Brown signings?

But, isn't taking a legitimate shot at a World Series title worth the chance?

Krusty
12-31-2006, 11:25 AM
But, isn't taking a legitimate shot at a World Series title worth the chance?

Didn't we do that with Junior by giving him a longterm contract? How has that turned out? How many World Series have the Reds gone to since acquiring Junior?

You put all your money in one player and limit your payroll flexiblity to the remaining roster, you essentially tie your hands behind your back.

jojo
12-31-2006, 11:50 AM
But, isn't taking a legitimate shot at a World Series title worth the chance?

5+ years to a pitcher is a lifetime..... concerning the *legit shot* its mostly fool's gold.... its real hard to find one of the those long term contracts that has worked out and real easy to find one that blew up....

savafan
12-31-2006, 05:27 PM
So what you're saying is status quo? How has that worked out? People say that they want the Reds to do something to improve the team, but you don't want them going with what the market dictates. You can't trade crap for gold...it just doesn't work that way.

Redmachine2003
12-31-2006, 06:37 PM
Unless the Reds trade for them or develop them the Reds will never get a big name Pitcher that is still in their prime. I mean what does Cincy have to offer them? Even if Cincy offered the most money most pitchers or even players will go else where to better market themselves.

Handofdeath
12-31-2006, 07:08 PM
Unless the Reds trade for them or develop them the Reds will never get a big name Pitcher that is still in their prime. I mean what does Cincy have to offer them? Even if Cincy offered the most money most pitchers or even players will go else where to better market themselves.

That is why Reds fans are going to have to be patient with this regime. (I know, I know.) The Reds will get the talent but it takes time. They can't make the trades that get the top stars because they don't have the talent yet. I think that the Reds could use the Indians as a model in that they develop the talent in house and sign them long term when they start to really develop as Major Leaguers.

Jpup
12-31-2006, 07:50 PM
That is why Reds fans are going to have to be patient with this regime. (I know, I know.) The Reds will get the talent but it takes time. They can't make the trades that get the top stars because they don't have the talent yet. I think that the Reds could use the Indians as a model in that they develop the talent in house and sign them long term when they start to really develop as Major Leaguers.

That's why it's either time to blow it up or sign Harang, Dunn, Arroyo, etc. to extensions. If they don't, all of those guys will be gone when the Reds are good enough to compete. If they trade those guys for MLB ready prospects, they wouldn't have to worry about it.

You either have to trade them or sign them to longer contracts. You could also do some of both. Status quo isn't getting anything done.

Reds Nd2
12-31-2006, 08:41 PM
That would work, unless Cincinnati Chili from the Zito thread is not wrong:

Which Zito thread was this on?

fearofpopvol1
01-01-2007, 02:45 AM
4 years at 100 Million is a high price to pay, but the Reds should do it if that is the going rate and the Reds can sign him. That's a CY Young right there and easily the best pitcher in all of baseball.

Do you recall the 2004 playoffs?? He almost single-handedly beat the Yankees!! He pushed the series to 5 games and won 2 of the 5 by himself almost!!

Newman4
01-01-2007, 10:11 AM
Do you recall the 2004 playoffs?? He almost single-handedly beat the Yankees!! He pushed the series to 5 games and won 2 of the 5 by himself almost!!

I agree with the idea there. As the Cardinals demonstrated, the best team doesn't necessarily win the whole thing. If you have a real ace and get one other guy on a hot streak, that can get it done. Especially in a short series.

In the time frame being discussed, Johan will still be under 30. 4yrs. 25 million per would be fine with me. However, if the Twins don't want to sign him, the time to get him would be in a trade following this season and sign an extension, not on the free agent market where prices would be heavily inflated.

Jpup
01-01-2007, 12:53 PM
The Reds have an ace and a #2, but that doesn't matter because they are not going to the playoffs anytime soon. Stock up on those guys, it's time to make a deal one way or another.

Team Clark
01-03-2007, 03:49 PM
Insure the contract in case of injury.

It's nearly impossible to get any contract insured past 4 years. Good luck with one that size.

Team Clark
01-03-2007, 03:53 PM
Johan is a true ace and a game changer. If I had the money, I'd give it to him.

I have a strong suspicion that the twinkies KNOW they are going to win with him on the mound. Same way the Phillies used to feel about Carlton. Or the Cardinals with Gibson. I'm not sure the Reds players KNOW they are going to win with Harang on the mound. Maybe if he puts up another good year and wins 20. Huge psychological effect for your team. You go into a tough series and KNOW (right or wrong) that you have one game in the bag. Gives you a bit more confidence.

bucksfan2
01-03-2007, 04:06 PM
I would throw just about everything I have at Johan. You could argue that outside of Randy Johnson in his prime Johan is the best left handed pitcher to come around in decades. If the minor leaguers develop like the reds hope a rotation of Johan, Baily, Wood/Cueto should be very tough. It would be a lot of money for the reds to shell out for one player but think what it would do for ticket sales. I know the reds dont like to go out and break the bank for free agents but if you develop players and have a nice core of players who aren't making big money yet you can afford to go out and overpay for a Santana.

Tom Servo
01-03-2007, 04:53 PM
I'm suprised nobody has mentioned what gives us even an outside chance at landing Johan, namely Wayne himself. He negotiated Johan's 4 year, 40$ million deal in 2005, and I remember hearing he was orginally the one who wanted to trade for Johan from the Marlins. So maybe Johan will remember that Wayne gave him his big break and will want to play on his team in Cincinnati. :pray:

Here's an interesting article about Wayne's time with the Twins I found looking up some info:
http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/sports/15818482.htm

Patrick Bateman
01-03-2007, 09:14 PM
Kevin Brown pitched pretty good for the money. 3.00 ERA or lower every year except 2002 when he was hurt.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1999 LA 35 35 5 1 252.1 210 99 84 19 59 221 18 9 0 0 -- 3.00
2000 LA 33 33 5 1 230.0 181 76 66 21 47 216 13 6 0 0 -- 2.58
2001 LA 20 19 1 0 115.2 94 41 34 8 38 104 10 4 0 0 -- 2.65
2002 LA 17 10 0 0 63.2 68 36 34 9 23 58 3 4 0 1 -- 4.81
2003 LA 32 32 0 0 211.0 184 67 56 11 56 185 14 9 0 0 -- 2.39

Of course he signed a 7 year contract. That's the risk. He pitched very poorly in 2004 and 2005.

And Brown probably delivered well above production for a pitcher on a long term contract. And even he was only effective (fulltime) for 3 out of 7 years.

Gamble
01-04-2007, 12:04 AM
The Reds have one nice bargaining chip in Juan Castro.

Newman4
01-04-2007, 12:27 AM
Of course he signed a 7 year contract. That's the risk. He pitched very poorly in 2004 and 2005.

And Brown probably delivered well above production for a pitcher on a long term contract. And even he was only effective (fulltime) for 3 out of 7 years.

Ah, I thought it was just 5 years. My bad. Age catches up with even the best of them.

Bigredfan#1
01-04-2007, 01:17 AM
No doubt Santana would be awesome in a Reds uniform but it will not happen. Only way they get a Santana type is to trade for one who is still in minors and develops into that type or the draft. Bailey brings us hope. With him,d Harang and Arroyo ( not sure he will repeat, usually has a good year and then a bad) they will have a good 1,2,3! That brings me some hope, but again that is still a year away, even if Bailey is up this year, he will not dominate in his first year.

redsfan4445
01-07-2007, 01:04 PM
The Reds will not even come close to the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels, Cubs, White sox, Dodgers etc.. Owners that wil have MONEY. And will over pay to get him.

Free Agency has gottten out of hand and when players like Matthews and Meche get outrageous money, you can bet EVERY player coming up on free agency that is WAY better then those 2, are salivating about how much they can get. And if the Reds FO Cant or WON'T spend to get those players in coming years, you can expect the same thing over and over..How the Reds can sign off on that CBA as well as other small makets, sounds like somebody got paid off.. not saying the Reds are one, but why sign off on a deal if you either have ZERO chance to go to the postseason (Pirates), or your so greedy you dont care what the fans think about your team and pocket the portion of the money handed to a team from MLB Revenue???

i am finding myself liking NFL more and more. they got it right.. if not our Bengals couldnt give the millions they hand out to players to keep them a Bengal..(millions in extensions to Palmer...etc) Th Bengals are not called a small market team!!!

anyway i am just sharing my view on it.
The Reds didnt want to spend money this off season. lets see what happens when BETTER pitching is on the market next year and beyond.. then we will see how serious they are about bringing Winning baseball back to Cincinnati. I am hoping its not 10 years from now!!! I am sick of losing..