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redsandrails
01-01-2007, 12:31 PM
(Copied from www.mlb4u.com)

Sorting out the post-Zito pitching market

Teams still looking for starters: Arizona, Cleveland, Colorado, Cincinnati, Minnesota, New York Mets, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis, Texas, Toronto and Washington

Teams still hunting for relievers: Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, Florida, Houston, New York Yankees, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Washington

High-rollers:

-Jeff Weaver: Looking for 4 years, $40M, but we think he will take less and return to the Cards
-Tomo Ohka: Looking for 3 years, $18-21M with the Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Red Sox, D-Backs and Mariners said to have interest
-Chris Reitsma: Rockies, Marlins, Rays, Royals, Red Sox, Giants, Indians and Padres were among those who expressed interest. The Marlins and Red Sox could be favorites
-Scott Schoeneweis: A 3-year deal with the Yankees is what we see in his future
-Ron Villone: A 2-year deal with the Tigers would be a good fit

Worth the risk:
-David Wells: Padres should be able to lock him up to 1-year deal for less than $5M
-Brian Lawrence: Rockies and Diamondbacks appear to have the inside track, but may receive better offers from the Rangers or Padres
-Joel Pineiro: Rays, White Sox, Red Sox, Padres, Royals, Twins, Yankees, Pirates and Cardinals all in the hunt. He might be asking for a lot.
-Jorge Sosa: A gig with the Nationals does not seem out of place

Stuck in the middle:
-Chan Ho Park: Should re-sign with the Padres
-Dan Kolb: 1-year, $3M deal with the Cardinals looks good to us
-Mark Redman: Jays and Padres do not seem to want to him so the Mets and Royals seem like his best shots
-Tony Armas Jr.: We predict him to land with the Red Sox
-Ryan Franklin, Matt Herges, Brian Meadows and Todd Williams
-Jamey Wright and Victor Zambrano

Better have good trainers:
-Paul Wilson: Should stay with the Reds on a minor-league deal
-Kent Mercker: Ditto
-Eddie Guardado: Ditto
-Pedro Astacio: Astros appear ready to sign him to a minor-league deal
-Mike De Jean: Heading back to the Rockies
-Jason Johnson, Jose Lima, Brian Moehler, Ramon Ortiz, Steve Trachsel and Joe Mays
-John Thomson: Mariners seem to really want him

Looking for one last shot:
-Sterling Hitchcock: Minor-league deal with Padres or Angels seems likely
-Aaron Sele: Minor-league deal with the Giants a possibility
-Russ Ortiz: Same as above + Japan?
-Dustin Hermanson: A Devil Ray, perhaps
-Sidney Ponson: Twins are the frontrunners
-Rudy Seanez: Should just return to the Padres
-Bruce Chen: Giants, Twins and Rockies all want him
-Arthur Rhodes, Shawn Estes, Brandon Claussen and Scott Sauerbeck: Market for them might not pick up until late January

Trade targets:
-Oakland’s trio (Harden, Blanton and Haren): Mets want one of them, but asking price remains too high
-Chicago’s quartet (Vazquez, Garland, Contreras, Buehrle): White Sox no longer shopping them, but Williams would budge at a crazy offer
-Rodrigo Lopez: Could become a Rockie or National
-Randy Johnson: We think he will become a Diamondback in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Dustin Nippert and another pitcher with the Yankees picking up little or no salary
-Akinori Otsuka: We think he will become a Diamondback in exchange for a pitching prospect and a lesser OF prospect
-Carl Pavano: Spring training deal if all other Yankee hurlers are healthy a definite possibility
-Armando Benitez: Spring training deal to the Marlins very likely
-Mike Gonzalez: We think he will eventually end up with Atlanta
-Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, Dontrelle Willis and Jon Lieber: Not going anywhere
-Mark Hendrickson: A spring training deal to a team that has an unexpected injury makes a lot of sense
-Juan Rincon: We suggest the Twins deal him to the Astros
-C.J. Wilson: We suggest the Rangers deal him to the Tigers
-Aaron Heilman: Too many possibilities
-Tim Hudson: Too pricey
-Scot Shields and Brad Lidge: Too high of an asking price

edabbs44
01-01-2007, 12:34 PM
It's articles like these that help me get through the off-season.

:help:

Spitball
01-01-2007, 12:53 PM
It sure seems as though they have everybody signing with the Padres. I hope I remember to check this post again in late January, early February.

RedLegSuperStar
01-01-2007, 06:41 PM
Someone got carried away with the Magic 8 Ball

GAC
01-01-2007, 09:20 PM
How bad is the market? You got three teams vying for a pitcher who appeared in only 17 games last year (93 innings), posted a record of 6-7, an of ERA 7.14, a WHIP of 1.70 before rotator cuff surgery cut his season short. And he wants a two year deal, which wouldn't be so bad, but I bet he spends that first year still trying to recover from surgery and regain arm strength.


Tribe, Cards, Rangers finalists for free agent Mulder

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2714085

The agent for free agent pitcher Mark Mulder said that the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals are the three finalists for the injured left-hander, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported Friday.

Mulder's agent, Gregg Clifton, told the newspaper that Indians GM Mark Shapiro was due to meet with Mulder on Friday, but that the meeting was delayed because Mulder is just returning from a honeymoon in Tahiti.

"Mark Shapiro does a great job selling what the Cleveland Indians have to offer," Clifton told the Plain Dealer. "I think he's in a good spot to get Mulder to come to Cleveland."

Mulder, 29, is looking for a two-year deal as he recovers from rotator cuff surgery on his left shoulder. He was 6-7 in 17 starts last season for the Cardinals before having surgery. He has a career record of 103-57 and a 4.11 ERA in seven major-league seasons with the Cardinals and Oakland Athletics.

Reds Nd2
01-01-2007, 09:57 PM
How bad is the market? You got three teams vying for a pitcher who appeared in only 17 games last year (93 innings), posted a record of 6-7, an of ERA 7.14, a WHIP of 1.70 before rotator cuff surgery cut his season short. And he wants a two year deal, which wouldn't be so bad, but I bet he spends that first year still trying to recover from surgery and regain arm strength.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5497

Mulder isn’t reliant on his power, so a comeback as a crafty lefthander is well within his ability. Ideally, he’d be available for spring training next season, though all three of the above comps had varying levels of difficulty coming back before Opening Day. He’s a nice risk for some team if he’s willing to sign an incentive-laden one year deal, much the way Morris did with the Cardinals.
I would give him a two year deal. Even if he does end up missing significant time in 2007, a rotation that includes Harrang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Mulder would be pretty sweet in 2008.

Slider
01-02-2007, 02:47 AM
Chicago White Sox...Williams...crazy deal?

Well I know just the crazy GM to offer that crazy deal...

Come on down to crazy Wayne's used player lot. He wants to give 'em away but his owner says no way Wayne...so he has a deal for you Mr Williams !

GAC
01-02-2007, 08:48 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5497

I would give him a two year deal. Even if he does end up missing significant time in 2007, a rotation that includes Harrang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Mulder would be pretty sweet in 2008.

I want to see what kind of money he ends up getting.

And my mind is somewhat foggy with this cold I'm fighting, but didn't the Reds in the past take a chance on a pitcher or two coming off of either rotator cuff surgery and/or serious arm trouble before?

Wilson? Reitsma? I know Reitsma had broken his throwing arm (twice?)

It just boils down, with me, with what types of money he wants. He made 7.7 Mil last year. Is that what he wants still? Maybe a 2 yr 15 Mil contract? Lets say he accepts a two year 12 Mil contract (which I doubt he would since a few teams seem strongly interested). So basically you're going to pay a guy 12 Mil, if his first year is pretty much a bust due to recovery time, for one year of service?

And then if he does have that solid year in the last year of his contract he's gone to FA and says thanks for the 12 Mil. ;)


He’s a nice risk for some team if he’s willing to sign an incentive-laden one year deal, much the way Morris did with the Cardinals.

Now I agree with this assessment. But again, that is not what he wants, or will probably get (from the Indians).

chicoruiz
01-02-2007, 09:16 PM
Why do I have this sinking feeling that I'm going to start hearing the name Russ Ortiz in connection with the Reds?

Reds Nd2
01-03-2007, 12:19 AM
I want to see what kind of money he ends up getting.
Gil Meche will make $18M the next two seasons. $7M/$11M respectively. Without knowing anything about the Reds finances and future plans for long term contracts/acquitions they maybe targeting, I'd be comfortable if they offered Mark Mulder a comparable TWO YEAR contract. And please Wayne, have a physical done on the player this time.

So basically you're going to pay a guy 12 Mil, if his first year is pretty much a bust due to recovery time, for one year of service?
When I said "significant time", I meant he would be ready by the All-Star break. But let's be serious, I really have no idea, none. Even Will Carroll isn't sure and he's a dang sight smarter than I am when it comes to injuries and the respective recovery time. But, even if Mulder doesn't pitch an inning in 2007, but returns to a 200 plus innings pitched with a dERA between 3.50 and 4.50; Yea' I'd overpay for that from a lefthanded pitcher. It's not like the Reds haven't overpaid for a LH pitcher before.

And then if he does have that solid year in the last year of his contract he's gone to FA and says thanks for the 12 Mil. ;)
I'd graciously thank him for whatever contributions he's made to the team and depending on just how solid that final year was, combined with what my teams current needs were, I'd either try to re-sign him or let him him go and take the compensation picks in 2009.

Currently, Arroyo's contract is up after 2008 and IIRC 2008 is the last ARB year for Harrang too. The Reds have a team option for Dunn in 2008. Griffey is in the final year of his contract in 2008. As are both Jerry Narron and Wayne Krivsky. Ya' see what I'm getting at here? Yea', me neither. :laugh: As currently constructed, the Reds aren't going to win anything of significance in 2007. If it was me, and thank God it isn't, I'd be targeting 2008 as my best bet to win the W.S. in the near term and I'd be willing to take a flyer on Mulder to do just that.

Reds Nd2
01-03-2007, 12:32 AM
Why do I have this sinking feeling that I'm going to start hearing the name Russ Ortiz in connection with the Reds?

Bruce Chen and Brian Moehler are still available.

Reds Nd2
01-05-2007, 06:20 AM
Sounds about right.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070104&content_id=1773096&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp


The deal would reportedly guarantee Mulder somewhere in the neighborhood of $7.75 million -- his '06 salary with the Cardinals -- for 2007, and performance incentives could push the value of the second year past the $10 million mark.

Clifton (Mulder's agent) has been telling teams that Mulder should be able to make 20-25 starts this season.