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View Full Version : Dave Concepcion VS. Ozzie Smith



savafan
01-02-2007, 03:40 AM
Much like the the Jim Rice VS. Dave Parker question, if you were a GM and had the opportunity to choose only one of these guys to play for your team in their prime, which one would you choose? This may be closer and tougher than you think.

Concepcion's Stats:


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1970 22 CIN NL 101 265 38 69 6 3 1 19 10 2 23 45 .260 .324 .317 84 3 2 5 3 10
1971 23 CIN NL 130 327 24 67 4 4 1 20 9 3 18 51 .205 .246 .251 82 8 1 2 0 10
1972 24 CIN NL 119 378 40 79 13 2 2 29 13 6 32 65 .209 .272 .270 102 5 4 8 2 11
1973 25 CIN NL 89 328 39 94 18 3 8 46 22 5 21 55 .287 .327 .433 142 2 5 3 1 7 AS
1974 26 CIN NL 160 594 70 167 25 1 14 82 41 6 44 79 .281 .335 .397 236 5 4 10 6 20 MVP-15
1975 27 CIN NL 140 507 62 139 23 1 5 49 33 6 39 51 .274 .326 .353 179 6 4 4 2 17 AS
1976 28 CIN NL 152 576 74 162 28 7 9 69 21 10 49 68 .281 .335 .401 231 4 6 11 1 11 AS
1977 29 CIN NL 156 572 59 155 26 3 8 64 29 7 46 77 .271 .322 .369 211 6 6 6 0 15 AS
1978 30 CIN NL 153 565 75 170 33 4 6 67 23 10 51 83 .301 .357 .405 229 3 4 4 1 14 AS
1979 31 CIN NL 149 590 91 166 25 3 16 84 19 7 64 73 .281 .348 .415 245 6 6 5 0 18 MVP-9,AS
1980 32 CIN NL 156 622 72 162 31 8 5 77 12 2 37 107 .260 .300 .360 224 2 6 2 1 20 AS
1981 33 CIN NL 106 421 57 129 28 0 5 67 4 5 37 61 .306 .358 .409 172 2 7 1 1 13 SS,MVP-4,AS
1982 34 CIN NL 147 572 48 164 25 4 5 53 13 6 45 61 .287 .337 .371 212 2 4 4 0 20 SS,AS
1983 35 CIN NL 143 528 54 123 22 0 1 47 14 9 56 81 .233 .303 .280 148 2 7 9 0 21
1984 36 CIN NL 154 531 46 130 26 1 4 58 22 6 52 72 .245 .307 .320 170 8 9 5 0 9
1985 37 CIN NL 155 560 59 141 19 2 7 48 16 12 50 67 .252 .314 .330 185 3 4 3 3 23
1986 38 CIN NL 90 311 42 81 13 2 3 30 13 2 26 43 .260 .314 .344 107 5 4 1 0 13
1987 39 CIN NL 104 279 32 89 15 0 1 33 4 3 28 24 .319 .377 .384 107 1 3 5 0 10
1988 40 CIN NL 84 197 11 39 9 0 0 8 3 2 18 23 .198 .265 .244 48 1 0 5 0 4
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
19 Seasons 8723 2326 48 950 109 1186 .267 .322 .357 74 86 93 21 266
2488 993 389 101 321 736 3114




Smith's Stats:


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1978 23 SDP NL 159 590 69 152 17 6 1 46 40 12 47 43 .258 .311 .312 184 28 3 0 0 11 RoY-2
1979 24 SDP NL 156 587 77 124 18 6 0 27 28 7 37 37 .211 .260 .262 154 22 1 5 2 11
1980 25 SDP NL 158 609 67 140 18 5 0 35 57 15 71 49 .230 .313 .276 168 23 4 1 5 9
1981 26 SDP NL 110 450 53 100 11 2 0 21 22 12 41 37 .222 .294 .256 115 10 1 1 5 8 AS
1982 27 STL NL 140 488 58 121 24 1 2 43 25 5 68 32 .248 .339 .314 153 4 5 12 2 10 MVP-13,AS
1983 28 STL NL 159 552 69 134 30 6 3 50 34 7 64 36 .243 .321 .335 185 7 2 9 1 10 MVP-21,AS
1984 29 STL NL 124 412 53 106 20 5 1 44 35 7 56 17 .257 .347 .337 139 11 3 5 2 8 AS
1985 30 STL NL 158 537 70 148 22 3 6 54 31 8 65 27 .276 .355 .361 194 9 2 11 2 13 MVP-18,AS
1986 31 STL NL 153 514 67 144 19 4 0 54 31 7 79 27 .280 .376 .333 171 11 3 13 2 9 AS
1987 32 STL NL 158 600 104 182 40 4 0 75 43 9 89 36 .303 .392 .383 230 12 4 3 1 9 SS,MVP-2,AS
1988 33 STL NL 153 575 80 155 27 1 3 51 57 9 74 43 .270 .350 .336 193 12 7 2 1 7 AS
1989 34 STL NL 155 593 82 162 30 8 2 50 29 7 55 37 .273 .335 .361 214 11 3 3 2 10 AS
1990 35 STL NL 143 512 61 130 21 1 1 50 32 6 61 33 .254 .330 .305 156 7 10 4 2 8 AS
1991 36 STL NL 150 550 96 157 30 3 3 50 35 9 83 36 .285 .380 .367 202 6 1 2 1 8 MVP-20,AS
1992 37 STL NL 132 518 73 153 20 2 0 31 43 9 59 34 .295 .367 .342 177 12 1 4 0 11 MVP-22,AS
1993 38 STL NL 141 545 75 157 22 6 1 53 21 8 43 18 .288 .337 .356 194 7 7 1 1 11
1994 39 STL NL 98 381 51 100 18 3 3 30 6 3 38 26 .262 .326 .349 133 10 4 3 0 3 AS
1995 40 STL NL 44 156 16 31 5 1 0 11 4 3 17 12 .199 .282 .244 38 5 2 0 2 6 AS
1996 41 STL NL 82 227 36 64 10 2 2 18 7 5 25 9 .282 .358 .370 84 7 0 0 2 5 AS
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
19 Seasons 9396 2460 69 793 148 589 .262 .337 .328 214 63 79 33 167
2573 1257 402 28 580 1072 3084





FWIW, I noticed that as a shortstop, Concepcion's career fielding percentage is better than Smith's.

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 06:56 AM
Davey.

Johnny Footstool
01-02-2007, 09:36 AM
Ozzie by a long shot.

Dom Heffner
01-02-2007, 12:30 PM
Concepcion is not a hall of famer. Ozzie is.

I hate Ozzie Smith, but the truth is the truth.

PuffyPig
01-02-2007, 12:33 PM
I always thought that Concepcion was a marginal HOF candidate in the same vien as Tony Perez.

Perez has gotten in, and Davey hasn't even been close. It's clear that, according to the voters, I overvalued Concepcion.

I'm still a little surprised with how badly he has fared in HOF voting. He alway hit very well for a SS (for his time), and was a perennial gold glove winner. He played in the WS three times, and invented the "hop" throw from the hole in SS for use on artificial turf.

TheBurn
01-02-2007, 12:53 PM
Davey!

I'm old school...

:D

Marc D
01-02-2007, 01:06 PM
If I had to take one in my prime to build around its Ozzie. I like Davey better as a fan but the decision is pretty simple imo.

M2
01-02-2007, 01:07 PM
Ozzie by a long shot.

Yep, he may have been the best defensive player ever.

BTW, that's no slight on Concepcion. Ozzie's one of the top 10 shortstops in baseball history.

RedsManRick
01-02-2007, 01:46 PM
Having never seen Davey play in person, I think the problem with Concepcion wasn't the public face of the franchise and his reputation as an all-time great fielder isn't there -- fair or not.

I think there's some feeling that he was a fielding first SS on some really good teams and that his fieldling, while good, wasn't superlative in the way that Ozzie's was. While they did have a WS appearance, the Cards were usually a mediocre team through his tenure. He was able to shine, to stand out on a team that didn't have many other stars. He was speed and defense on teams that won with pitching, speed, and defense. Meanwhile, Davey was simply part of the crew with other household names like Morgan, Perez, Bench, Rose, Foster, etc.

In my mind, the question becomes, how much better defensively was Ozzie than Davey? How does Davey stack up historically. Frankly, unless he can be considered one of the all-time great SS defensively, I'm not sure he has a great case for the hall of fame (though I know that's not the question at hand). I think Omar Vizquel is going to find himself in the same boat.

Personally, I'd take Ozzie.

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 02:03 PM
Having never seen Davey play in person, I think the problem with Concepcion wasn't the public face of the franchise and his reputation as an all-time great fielder isn't there -- fair or not.

I think there's some feeling that he was a fielding first SS on some really good teams and that his fieldling, while good, wasn't superlative in the way that Ozzie's was. While they did have a WS appearance, the Cards were usually a mediocre team through his tenure. He was able to shine, to stand out on a team that didn't have many other stars. He was speed and defense on teams that won with pitching, speed, and defense. Meanwhile, Davey was simply part of the crew with other household names like Morgan, Perez, Bench, Rose, Foster, etc.

In my mind, the question becomes, how much better defensively was Ozzie than Davey? How does Davey stack up historically. Frankly, unless he can be considered one of the all-time great SS defensively, I'm not sure he has a great case for the hall of fame (though I know that's not the question at hand). I think Omar Vizquel is going to find himself in the same boat.

Personally, I'd take Ozzie.

Your first seven words would make it easy for me to believe that you wouldn't have as much respect for Concepcion's game as some of the other shortstops.

RedsManRick
01-02-2007, 02:18 PM
Fair enough Randy. But I would make the argument that people who watched Davey play every day and cheered for his team are more likely to be biased regarding his relative standing in history than someone who never saw him play a game.

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 02:26 PM
I don't think I am biased in saying that Concepcion was the best shortstop in baseball during the time he played. When you compare him to the players that are in the Hall of Fame at that position, he stacks up pretty well.

M2
01-02-2007, 02:33 PM
I don't think I am biased in saying that Concepcion was the best shortstop in baseball during the time he played. When you compare him to the players that are in the Hall of Fame at that position, he stacks up pretty well.

Exactly. Hard to ask more than being the best of your era, anchoring a dynasty, winning 5 GGs and appearing in 9 All-Star games. Throw in that his numbers are as good or better than half the shortstops in Cooperstown and I'm not sure what the argument against the guy is.

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 02:51 PM
Exactly.

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 02:57 PM
Not to mention, he played in 5 League Championship Series and 4 World Series, was the MVP of the 1982 All Star Game and won 2 Silver Slugger awards.

RedsManRick
01-02-2007, 03:07 PM
I don't think I am biased in saying that Concepcion was the best shortstop in baseball during the time he played. When you compare him to the players that are in the Hall of Fame at that position, he stacks up pretty well.

Ok. That assessment should be able to be made regardless of whether or not I've seen him played. And even if he was the best SS during his era (which would buoy his HOF case), that doesn't make him better than Ozzie Smith necessarily.

Ozzie had a career 87 OPS+ (OPS relative to a league average index of 100) and stole 580 bases at a 79.7 clip in 10,778 PA.

Davey had a career 88 OPS+ and stole 321 bases at a 74.7% clip in 9,640 PA.

Davey may have been a wonderful defensive SS, but I don't think I've seen anybody claim he was better than, or the equal of, Ozzie. I'm very open to being shown that I'm wrong. From what I see, they were very similar offensively but Ozzie stole significantly more bases at a higher success rate and was a better fielder. Sorry if that take seems uninformed to those of you who were alive during the BRM era, but from all that I've seen, it seems a fair opinion to me. Is Davey a HOF, well, you guys are making a pretty darn good case for him that I'm willing to buy in to. But would I have him over Ozzie? The accomplishments of his teams don't sway me one way or the other. Derek Jeter is a great SS but I'd still rather have ARod.

westofyou
01-02-2007, 03:13 PM
Ozzieís best game at the dish? - The Wizard of Oz was known for his glove but it was his bat that amazed me on my first trip to Wrigley in 1993. Ozzie Smith must have liked Wrigley Field, aside from San Diego and St Louis Ozzie drove in more runs at Wrigley than any other park. He had back to back 4 hit games in the early 80ís there and 2 5 hit games there as well, the only 5 hit games in his career. I happened to catch the last one and it also was a classic Cubs nightmare game with over 20 runs scored by both teams, Harry leaned out of the window and we all sang with him. Ozzie topped the day off with 6 rbiís. It was quite the display from the skinny little guy known for his glove.


St. Louis Cardinals 11, Chicago Cubs 10
Game Played on Thursday, June 17, 1993 (D) at Wrigley Field

STL N 0 0 1 4 3 0 2 0 1 - 11 17 0
CHI N 1 0 0 2 0 3 0 2 2 - 10 19 0

BATTING
St. Louis Cardinals AB R H RBI BB SO PO A
O. Smith ss 5 1 5 6 0 0 2 2

RANDY IN INDY
01-02-2007, 03:50 PM
By not seeing Concepcion play, I think one misses out on the plays that Davey made that, while not as flashy, were just as effective. He made so many hard plays look very easy with little or no flash. While both made it look very easy, they did it in a different manner. Concepcion also had a lot more "pop" in the bat than did Smith as the HR totals clearly show.

One can't go wrong with either, but I'll still take Concepcion. I realize I am in the minority.

Cyclone792
01-02-2007, 04:15 PM
Michael Humphreys came out with an historical Defensive Regression Analysis (http://web.archive.org/web/20031202021441/www.baseballprimer.com/articles/humphreys_2003-11-19_0.shtml) a few seasons ago and took a look at shortstops defensively from 1974-2001. In a nutshell, here was his summary ...


The Excellent shortstops during 1974-2001 were Ozzie Smith, Dave Concepcion, Ozzie Guillen, and Mark Belanger. The Very Good shortstops were Ripken, Templeton, Larkin, Dent, Burleson, Jose Uribe and maybe Craig Reynolds and Greg Gagne.

He goes into quite a bit more detail in the link provided.

RedsManRick
01-02-2007, 04:37 PM
I think you all do make the point, however, that if Ozzie is a first ballot HOF, Davey should be considered a fairly major omission.

Yachtzee
01-02-2007, 05:39 PM
Ok. That assessment should be able to be made regardless of whether or not I've seen him played. And even if he was the best SS during his era (which would buoy his HOF case), that doesn't make him better than Ozzie Smith necessarily.

Ozzie had a career 87 OPS+ (OPS relative to a league average index of 100) and stole 580 bases at a 79.7 clip in 10,778 PA.

Davey had a career 88 OPS+ and stole 321 bases at a 74.7% clip in 9,640 PA.

Davey may have been a wonderful defensive SS, but I don't think I've seen anybody claim he was better than, or the equal of, Ozzie. I'm very open to being shown that I'm wrong. From what I see, they were very similar offensively but Ozzie stole significantly more bases at a higher success rate and was a better fielder. Sorry if that take seems uninformed to those of you who were alive during the BRM era, but from all that I've seen, it seems a fair opinion to me. Is Davey a HOF, well, you guys are making a pretty darn good case for him that I'm willing to buy in to. But would I have him over Ozzie? The accomplishments of his teams don't sway me one way or the other. Derek Jeter is a great SS but I'd still rather have ARod.

To be fair on the stolen bases, Ozzie played on a "Whitey-ball" team with guys like Vince Coleman and Willie McGee, where they always had the green light to run and were encouraged to go as often as they could. Concepcion played on a team with more power, where stealing bases wasn't always a priority.

Always Red
01-02-2007, 05:44 PM
I agree with most all of the above; I think both men are HoF SS's.

If Davey did back-flips on the field, ala Ozzie, he'd be in the HoF with Perez, Morgan and Bench right now. Davey was (and is still) seen as a role player on one of the best teams in baseball history, and that perception will always hurt him.

The numbers are fairly even, IMO. Davey had a better bat, Ozzie a better glove, and yet Concepcion is still considered an "excellent" SS; the best of his era with the glove (and that era would be the 10 years right before Smith, arguably the best glove ever @ SS).

As long as Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizutto are in the HoF, I will always argue that there should be room for David Concepcion.

And Barry Larkin, too! (Sorry, got off topic there:D )

westofyou
01-02-2007, 05:49 PM
One aspect that is missed is that Whitey went out and got Ozzie, Whitey stroked Ozzie to the press, Whitey packaged his brand of the game an tent revivaled it. Ozzie was the main attraction in that circus.

Davey was Plutoed by playing with some serious talent, by the time he was alone in the clubhouse and on the field he no longer was the same player. His game was transitional in a transitional era, he ain't Chico Carrasquel. But his timing and circumstances aren't that sexy, though one of the biggest stories of his career was the dryer incident.

Red in Chicago
01-02-2007, 06:57 PM
I agree with most all of the above; I think both men are HoF SS's.

If Davey did back-flips on the field, ala Ozzie, he'd be in the HoF with Perez, Morgan and Bench right now. Davey was (and is still) seen as a role player on one of the best teams in baseball history, and that perception will always hurt him.

The numbers are fairly even, IMO. Davey had a better bat, Ozzie a better glove, and yet Concepcion is still considered an "excellent" SS; the best of his era with the glove (and that era would be the 10 years right before Smith, arguably the best glove ever @ SS).

As long as Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizutto are in the HoF, I will always argue that there should be room for David Concepcion.

And Barry Larkin, too! (Sorry, got off topic there:D )


I think you hit the nail on the head. Backflips can do wonders for a person's image:rolleyes:

I had the honor of seeing both shortstops play the game live and in person. By picking either guy, you can't go wrong. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a Reds fan and the fact that I saw Davey play a lot more games.

While Ozzie's glove may have been a tad bit better, I'd rather have the extra pop in the bat. Certainly some of Davey's offensive stats must have been held down due to him batting so low in the order for much of his career.

My vote is for Davey all the way, but unfortunately I don't matter:cry:

savafan
01-02-2007, 07:49 PM
Career Fielding Percentage at the shortstop position:

Ozzie Smith .978
Dave Concepcion .971


Okay, so I was wrong, Smith's fielding percentage was higher, but it's not that far off the mark.

westofyou
01-02-2007, 07:53 PM
Career Fielding Percentage at the shortstop position:

Ozzie Smith .978
Dave Concepcion .971


Okay, so I was wrong, Smith's fielding percentage was higher, but it's not that far off the mark.

Ozzie was the pickin king in the plastic grass era


NATIONAL LEAGUE
SEASON
1970-1990
SS

ASSISTS YEAR A
1 Ozzie Smith 1980 621
2 Ivan DeJesus 1977 595
T3 Bill Russell 1973 560
T3 Larry Bowa 1971 560
5 Ivan DeJesus 1978 558
6 Ozzie Smith 1979 555
7 Ozzie Smith 1985 549
8 Ozzie Smith 1978 548
9 Bill Almon 1977 538
10 Dave Concepcion 1974 536
11 Ozzie Smith 1982 535
T12 Dickie Thon 1983 533
T12 Bill Russell 1978 533
14 Ivan DeJesus 1980 529
15 Rafael Ramirez 1982 528
16 Don Kessinger 1973 526
17 Garry Templeton 1979 525
T18 Garry Templeton 1978 523
T18 Bill Russell 1977 523
T20 Ozzie Smith 1988 519
T20 Ozzie Smith 1983 519

GAC
01-02-2007, 08:55 PM
though one of the biggest stories of his career was the dryer incident.

That was a hilarious situation. Didn't he get burned (arms) really bad from that?

If I go by stats it's Ozzie.

If I go by loyalty and the fact he was simply one of my favorite Reds since I was a SS, then it's Davey.

Davey was a career sub-700 OPS player.... but I still loved the guy. :mooner:

savafan
01-02-2007, 08:59 PM
Davey was a career sub-700 OPS player.... but I still loved the guy. :mooner:

Davey still has Ozzie beat in the OPS category ;)

Ozzie - .665
Davey - .679

George Foster
01-02-2007, 11:26 PM
Not to mention, he played in 5 League Championship Series and 4 World Series, was the MVP of the 1982 All Star Game and won 2 Silver Slugger awards.

A home-run in the 1982 All Star game with the white shoes!!

I have seen both of them play. Ozzie was the face of the St. Louis franchise, Davey was not. That should not keep Davey out of the hall, their stats are similar. "Popularity" or "TV time" should not have anything to do with it.

You have to remember that during the late 80's and 90's Ozzie was on TV a lot more. Davey was only on TV on Sunday's maybe, and the playoffs.

Yachtzee
01-03-2007, 12:55 AM
A home-run in the 1982 All Star game with the white shoes!!

I have seen both of them play. Ozzie was the face of the St. Louis franchise, Davey was not. That should not keep Davey out of the hall, their stats are similar. "Popularity" or "TV time" should not have anything to do with it.

You have to remember that during the late 80's and 90's Ozzie was on TV a lot more. Davey was only on TV on Sunday's maybe, and the playoffs.

TV time is definitely another key difference. The height of Davey's career occurred before highlight shows and ESPN Sportscenter. Ozzie's career peaked as these shows were taking off. Most of my knowledge of Davey's play comes from the descriptions of Marty Brenneman over the radio, with the NBC Game of the Week thrown in. He got some exposure on TWIB in the early '80s, but when Sportscenter really started to take off, he was already in the twilight of his career and guys like Stillwell and Larkin were manning shortstop. Meanwhile, Ozzie was featured on Sportscenter for quite some time. The crazy thing is, as brilliant a fielder as Ozzie was, I can picture his backflips as clear as if I had just seen him do it, but I can't remember him actually fielding the ball. However, I can vividly remember Davey digging one out of the hole and hitting the first baseman with one of his patented one-hoppers to first.

mth123
01-03-2007, 05:12 AM
TV time is definitely another key difference. The height of Davey's career occurred before highlight shows and ESPN Sportscenter. Ozzie's career peaked as these shows were taking off. Most of my knowledge of Davey's play comes from the descriptions of Marty Brenneman over the radio, with the NBC Game of the Week thrown in. He got some exposure on TWIB in the early '80s, but when Sportscenter really started to take off, he was already in the twilight of his career and guys like Stillwell and Larkin were manning shortstop. Meanwhile, Ozzie was featured on Sportscenter for quite some time. The crazy thing is, as brilliant a fielder as Ozzie was, I can picture his backflips as clear as if I had just seen him do it, but I can't remember him actually fielding the ball. However, I can vividly remember Davey digging one out of the hole and hitting the first baseman with one of his patented one-hoppers to first.

This is a brilliant observation. Beyond the new era of SS and the new era of power, the new era of media has done a lot diminish the memory of any pre-cable/internet age player if he isn't in hallowed Ruth/Gehrig type status.

Davey just didn't have a defining moment in his career and, because his teams were so good, was always stuck down in the order and never had the advantage of hitting number 2 on a playoff caliber team. Smith's numbers in his best years are helped a lot by hitting 2nd vs. 7th or 8th.

RANDY IN INDY
01-03-2007, 06:54 AM
TV time is definitely another key difference. The height of Davey's career occurred before highlight shows and ESPN Sportscenter. Ozzie's career peaked as these shows were taking off. Most of my knowledge of Davey's play comes from the descriptions of Marty Brenneman over the radio, with the NBC Game of the Week thrown in. He got some exposure on TWIB in the early '80s, but when Sportscenter really started to take off, he was already in the twilight of his career and guys like Stillwell and Larkin were manning shortstop. Meanwhile, Ozzie was featured on Sportscenter for quite some time. The crazy thing is, as brilliant a fielder as Ozzie was, I can picture his backflips as clear as if I had just seen him do it, but I can't remember him actually fielding the ball. However, I can vividly remember Davey digging one out of the hole and hitting the first baseman with one of his patented one-hoppers to first.

:beerme:

RFS62
01-03-2007, 07:14 AM
It's just a statement of our times that a rock solid performer like Davey doesn't get the hype that backflippin', flashy Ozzie did.

Not taking anything away from Ozzie. He was one of the best ever to play. But the very thing that made Davey so valuable is also the thing that may keep him out of the hall..... he got the job done with effortless ease. He made it look easier than a lesser talented guy who would be thrashing and scrambling to get to balls that Davey glided to with superior anticipation an athletic ability.

I see Davey's fielding game much the same as Maz's. Rock solid dependablilty and technical innovations to their position.

My hopes have faded a bit for Davey to ever make the hall. But I believe he belongs there.

RedsBaron
01-03-2007, 07:17 AM
I used BaseballReference.com's "stat neutralizer" to compare Davey, Ozzie and Pee Wee Reese. The stat neutralizer purports to revise statistics to what they would be had a player played in a neutral ballpark, with a 162 game schedule, and in a league where the average team scored 750 runs a season.
At bats: Ozzie 9982, Davey 9113, Pee Wee 8434
Runs: Ozzie 1478, Pee Wee 1424, Davey 1139 (Remember that runs and RBI still greatly depend upon the other players in the lineup and where a player hits in the batting order)
Hits: Ozzie 2752, Davey 2554, Pee Wee 2294
Doubles: Ozzie 446, Davey 431, Pee Wee 348
Triples: Pee Wee 83, Ozzie 75, Davey 50
Home Runs: Pee Wee 129, Davey 109, Ozzie 30
RBI: Davey 1099, Pee Wee 940, Ozzie 918
Ave: Davey .280, Ozzie .276, Pee Wee .272
OBP: Pee Wee .369, Ozzie .353, Davey .337
SPCT: Pee Wee .379, Davey .374, Ozzie .344
Stolen Bases: Ozzie 648, Davey 346, Pee Wee 244

I forgot to check on walks, but Pee Wee obviously lead there, given that he leads in OBP despite having the lowest batting average of the trio.

George Foster
01-05-2007, 10:55 PM
This is a brilliant observation. Beyond the new era of SS and the new era of power, the new era of media has done a lot diminish the memory of any pre-cable/internet age player if he isn't in hallowed Ruth/Gehrig type status.

Davey just didn't have a defining moment in his career and, because his teams were so good, was always stuck down in the order and never had the advantage of hitting number 2 on a playoff caliber team. Smith's numbers in his best years are helped a lot by hitting 2nd vs. 7th or 8th.

Hey I had the observation 1st!!!;) give up some points!!:thumbup:

Raisor
01-06-2007, 07:19 AM
I have forgotten, has Allan Trammell made it in yet? I can't see Davey in unless Trammell's in.

RedsBaron
01-06-2007, 07:45 AM
Trammell isn't in yet, and I too rank him ahead of Davey.

Jpup
01-09-2007, 01:28 PM
Joe (Cincinnati)
Do you think Davey Concepcion will ever get to the Hall? He compares favorably to Ozzie Smith, is it because he didn't do the flips?

ROB NEYER
He doesn't compare favorable to Ozzie Smith, at all. Smith was a better hitter, a better baserunner, and a better fielder. Objectively, Ozzie was one of the dozen greatest shortstops ever, and Concepcion probably wasn't one of the greatest two dozen.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 01:33 PM
Joe (Cincinnati)
Do you think Davey Concepcion will ever get to the Hall? He compares favorably to Ozzie Smith, is it because he didn't do the flips?

ROB NEYER
He doesn't compare favorable to Ozzie Smith, at all. Smith was a better hitter, a better baserunner, and a better fielder. Objectively, Ozzie was one of the dozen greatest shortstops ever, and Concepcion probably wasn't one of the greatest two dozen.

I wonder what metric Neyer is thinking of when he says Ozzie was a better hitter? Baserunner I can buy, fielder I can buy. Davey had a slightly lower OBP and higher SLG with a career OPS+ high than Ozzie's.

Unless you all are vastly overrating Concepcion's defense, there's absolutely no way there are 12 SS between Ozzie and Davey.

M2
01-09-2007, 01:42 PM
Concepcion was the better hitter. If he'd been able to spend most of his career in the #2 slot, like Ozzie, then his slight advantage with the bat would be fairly large.

Ozzie was a better fielder than everybody. Concepcion would only rank perhaps in the top 5 defensive shortstops of all time, hardly schmucksville. Ozzie was a better baserunner, though Concepcion was hardly a slouch in that department. And since when has Rob Neyer made a case that anyone deserves significant extra credit for stolen bases?

Honestly, if you can't even acknowledge that two guys with similar hitting numbers, great gloves, great wheels and a great head for the game share many similarities then you've just about jumped a shark.

On the Trammell point - yes, Trammell was better. I'd have both him and Concepcion on my ballot. If Concepcion, by some miracle, would happen to slide into Cooperstown ahead of Trammell the upside would be that Trammell would surely be following within a few years.

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 02:26 PM
ROB NEYER
He doesn't compare favorable to Ozzie Smith, at all. Smith was a better hitter, a better baserunner, and a better fielder. Objectively, Ozzie was one of the dozen greatest shortstops ever, and Concepcion probably wasn't one of the greatest two dozen.

:laugh:

Jpup
01-09-2007, 02:55 PM
I always respected Neyer, but he killed that with that post. While I think Davey is borderline, he seemed to just blow him off like he shouldn't even be considered.

westofyou
01-09-2007, 03:00 PM
I always respected Neyer, but he killed that with that post. While I think Davey is borderline, he seemed to just blow him off like he shouldn't even be considered.
Neyer has his own weakness, he grew up an AL fan and is AL myopic, he admits that he knows less about the game prior to Ruth then he should and IMO he leans a bit heavy on the super teams for content.

But I miss reading him for free.

Reds Nd2
01-09-2007, 03:05 PM
Here are the SS rankings from the Bill James Historical Abstract:


1. Honus Wagoner
2. Arky Vaughn
3. Cal Ripken Jr.
4. Robin Yount
5. Ernie Banks
6. Barry Larkin
7. Ozzie Smith
8. Joe Cronin
9. Alan Trammell
10. Pee Wee Reese
11. Luke Appling
12. Lou Bourdreau
13. Luis Aparicio
14. George Davis
15. Jim Fregosi
16. Phil Rizzuto
17. Alex Rodriguez
18. Hughie Jenninings
19. Maury Wills
20. Johnny Pesky
21. Bill Dahlen
22. Vern Stephens
23. Joe Sewell
24. Tony Fernandez
25. Bert Campaneris
26. Davey Concepcion

Jpup
01-09-2007, 03:09 PM
Here are the SS rankings from the Bill James Historical Abstract:


That looks like where Neyer got his info. Surely he has researched it himself.

Reds Nd2
01-09-2007, 03:12 PM
Anyone who has access to the premium content at Baseball Prospectus might be interested in this article. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5800) Joe Sheehan gives his reasons why he wouldn't vote for Concepcion, among others, on the HoF ballot.

M2
01-09-2007, 03:13 PM
Anyone who has access to the premium content at Baseball Prospectus might be interested in this article. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5800) Joe Sheehan gives his reasons why he wouldn't vote for Concepcion, among others, on the HoF ballot.

Where does he rank failure to play in New York?

Reds Nd2
01-09-2007, 03:38 PM
Where does he rank failure to play in New York?
Don Mattingly is not a Hall of Famer.

A great player for four years, and a good one for four others, Mattingly’s career falls short of the established standards for Hall of Fame first basemen.

Yachtzee
01-09-2007, 04:09 PM
Neyer has his own weakness, he grew up an AL fan and is AL myopic, he admits that he knows less about the game prior to Ruth then he should and IMO he leans a bit heavy on the super teams for content.

But I miss reading him for free.

I haven't read his articles since he went premium.

It's probably based off of Concepcion's rankings in Bill James Historical Abstract, but then I really didn't understand Concepcion's ranking in that book anyway. If it's based off of Win Shares, then Luis Aparicio has no business hanging out at #13 all-time. Was Jim Fregosi that great to rank #15? I've always heard about him more as a manager than a shortstop. They don't really say anything about Davey about his ranking or play, other than he was so tall and skinny that Pete Rose said he could have pulled a bone, but didn't have enough muscle to pull.

M2
01-09-2007, 04:24 PM
It should be noted that James also named Concepcion the top SS of the 1970s.

James weighted peak heavily which cost Concepcion a bit and aided Rizzuto.

Cyclone792
01-09-2007, 04:34 PM
I haven't read his articles since he went premium.

It's probably based off of Concepcion's rankings in Bill James Historical Abstract, but then I really didn't understand Concepcion's ranking in that book anyway. If it's based off of Win Shares, then Luis Aparicio has no business hanging out at #13 all-time. Was Jim Fregosi that great to rank #15? I've always heard about him more as a manager than a shortstop. They don't really say anything about Davey about his ranking or play, other than he was so tall and skinny that Pete Rose said he could have pulled a bone, but didn't have enough muscle to pull.

I don't understand James' ranking of any player in the Ozzie, Davey, Aparicio, Rizzuto, and Rabbit Maranville group. All were moderate hitting shortstops who excelled to a new level defensively, and all their careers are rather similar in that mold. He has Ozzie #7, Aparicio #13, Rizzuto #16, Davey #26, and Maranville #38.

Ozzie is the greatest defensive shortstop ever, which means he was just a little bit better than the rest of those guys in that group, and he's probably slightly greater overall than everyone else in that group, but the differences between him and the others can't be that huge.

Cyclone792
07-10-2008, 08:26 AM
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/07/09/bargain-books/


Quick word about Concepcion: Iíve received several emails lately asking about Omar Vizquel and if I think he is a Hall of Famer. Itís a touchy subject for me because Iím a big Vizquel fan for all the obvious Cleveland reasons, and I think he certainly has a compelling enough case with the 11 gold gloves and 2,600-plus hits and 1,350 runs scored and so on. He has quite a few big name Hall of Fame supporters right now ó Peter Gammons is a big fan, Tracy Ringolsby too ó and I suspect there will be a pretty overpowering campaign for him when heís Hall eligible.

And it makes me a little sad that Dave Concepcion never had that campaign. I firmly believe Davey was a better player than Vizquel. It makes me a little sad because I have never voted for Concepcion, not even this past year which I believe was his last year of eligibility. Iíve thought about him hard, respected the career a lot, but being brutally honest I always thought he fell just a touch short, and anyway Iíve been much more interested in another shortstop, Alan Trammell, who I think was a better player than either of those guys.

But the interest in Vizquel (along with my vivid Reds dreams) has made me go back and realize that Concepcion really was a unique player in his time. First off, he was a brilliant defensive shortstop ó his fielding numbers are off the charts. Bill James rated him an A+ defender in his Win Shares book (Vizquel, controversially, was rated a B-). And while Range Factor obviously has its quirks and flaws, itís worth noting that five times in Concepcionís career he had a 5.00 range factor or higher (Vizquel, and I couldnít quite believe this, NEVER had a 5.00 range factor).

People will point out that Concepcion won five Gold Gloves to Vizquelís 11, but this is purely the Ozzie factor Ö Vizquel won five gold gloves after he turned 32. Concepcion won none because Ozzie Smith had arrived Ö Vizquel doesnít win any of those against Ozzie either.

But itís offense where I think Concepcion has a big, big advantage over Vizquel. Their core numbers will not show this:

Concepcion: .267/.322/.357, 389 doubles, 48 triples, 101 homers, 993 runs, 950 RBIs, 321 stolen bases, 88 OPS+.

Vizquel: .272/.338/.355, 419 doubles, 71 triples, 77 homers, 1,350 runs, 878 RBIs, 383 stolen bases, 83 OPS+.

Looking at those numbers in context, it looks like a wash or an edge to Vizquel ó he played longer and his OPS+ is lower, but he did score 350 more runs, and he has 300 or so more hits and he stole 62 more bases.

But hereís the thing: Concepcion in addition to his defensive prowess was very much an offensive shortstop in his time, and Vizquel absolutely was not. Runs created shows this best:

Vizquel is -197 runs created above average which obviously is not good.
Concepcion is -165 runs creative above average, which ainít much better.

BUT Ö

Vizquel is -15 runs created above POSITION. That is, even when you compare him only to shortstops, he was slightly below average as a hitter. Sure, he played in the time of A-Rod, Jeter, Nomah, Larkin and the rest, but thatís the point. The game changed, and shortstops were expected to hit, and Omar was a slight offensive liability for much of his career. Vizquel had only one year where his RCAP was +20 or better ó that was his outstanding 1999 season when he was +31.

Concepcion? Heís +126 runs created above position. He had SIX seasons where his RCAP was +20 or better. That means that for his time he was not only a good hitting shortstop, he was really an EXCELLENT hitting shortstop. Going back to 1920, Concepcion ranks 15th all-time in RCAP among shortstops who played 1,500 or more games Ö heís well behind the greatest hitting shortstops like Larkin, Jeter, Trammell, Yount and heís also behind Ozzie. But heís much better than some of the other great defensive shortstops like Aparicio, Marion, Rizzuto and, of course, Omar.

This is not to say that Concepcion is a Hall of Famer Ö as I already mentioned I think he probably falls just short. I think Trammell has a more compelling case, and I think Larkin who will be eligible soon has a much more compelling case (I think Barry Larkin should be a slam dunk, first ballot guy Ö weíll get to that at the appropriate time). But I think Concepcion was a great player, and heís a significantly better Hall candidate than Omar, and I am already pre-raging for the Omar hype that seems inevitable in five years.

**Quick word about Cesar Geronimo Ö I will be in Cincinnati in about 10 days for his induction into the Reds Hall of Fame. Heís going in to the Hall with Cincinnati native Barry Larkin, which is fitting Ö Geronimo never did headline anything his whole life. But Chief, as they called him, was an amazing defensive centerfielder, he did have a really nice year in Ď76, and he also completes the circle ó every member of the Great Eight will now be in the Reds Hall.

princeton
07-10-2008, 08:54 AM
it took a great player to make a great team greater. a simple All-Star player wouldn't have been enough.

Concepcion should have been in the HoF a long time ago.

Smith was better, though.

durl
07-10-2008, 09:13 AM
Smith will always have an "aura" about him because of his backflips and his annual All-Star appearances. The problem is that backflips aren't a productive part of the game and Ozzie made the All-Star team when he was batting below .200. I wonder if the Ozzie mystique carries more weight than his actual performance on the field.

Don't get me wrong, Ozzie was an amazing fielder and deserves the Hall. Davey was also an amazing fielder and should be in the Hall as well. Forced to choose, I might go with Ozzie but it wouldn't be an easy choice.

I believe what keeps Davey from standing out (as others have pointed out) is that Davey played with Rose, Bench, Foster, Morgan, and Perez while Ozzie played with...Willie McGee? Davey was a great player on a great team. Ozzie was a great shortstop that did backflips.

bucksfan2
07-10-2008, 09:26 AM
Smith will always have an "aura" about him because of his backflips and his annual All-Star appearances. The problem is that backflips aren't a productive part of the game and Ozzie made the All-Star team when he was batting below .200. I wonder if the Ozzie mystique carries more weight than his actual performance on the field.

Don't get me wrong, Ozzie was an amazing fielder and deserves the Hall. Davey was also an amazing fielder and should be in the Hall as well. Forced to choose, I might go with Ozzie but it wouldn't be an easy choice.

I believe what keeps Davey from standing out (as others have pointed out) is that Davey played with Rose, Bench, Foster, Morgan, and Perez while Ozzie played with...Willie McGee? Davey was a great player on a great team. Ozzie was a great shortstop that did backflips.

Ozzie played in an era where he was showcased like none before. When Ozzie played the midwest was king in baseball. NY and Boston were afterthoughts. Big market baseball had yet to go mainstream. Sportscenter was new and was more geared to showing the best teams and the best highlights rather than pimping/creating the biggest stories in the biggest markets. Ozzie was a highlight real in the same way Jim Edmonds was. He would make that spectacular play that would get played all over the place. But IMO his substance pales in comparison to Davey, Trammel, or even Visquel.

Always Red
07-10-2008, 09:47 AM
I've said it before, and I'll say it until I can speak no longer: If Phil Rizzuto, Pee Wee Reese and Ozzie Smith belong in the HoF, then so does David Concepcion. And so does Alan Trammell, IMO.

None of these guys were the type of player who could carry a team all year long; they all had faults as players (for instance, Dave Concepcion put together one of the all time worst seasons in baseball history as a #3 hitter in the order- not Davey's fault, as he should have been hitting 6th or so, but that's what happens when you are on a really bad team). Some of the modern day SS's can and have carried their teams all year. The game changed so quickly, that guys like Concepcion and Trammell are going to be left out.

Johnny Footstool
07-10-2008, 09:53 AM
There's a bit of backlash now against Ozzie. It's the kind of thing that happens after years of hearing how great a guy was. People begin to think, "Aw, he wasn't *that* great."

Ozzie was, though.

The Posnaski article lauds Concepcion for having a range factor over 5.00 five times in his career. Ozzie did that 10 times.

Reds1
07-10-2008, 10:51 AM
Ask a bunch of cardinal fans! You'll get a different poll. LOL

KronoRed
07-10-2008, 12:34 PM
Ask a bunch of cardinal fans! You'll get a different poll. LOL

I doubt Cardinal fans even know who Concepcion is ;)

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2008, 12:46 PM
I quickly picked Davey...simply because he's one of my all-time favorites and because I simply hate Smith. However, looking at it logically...you'd have to say Smith. Defensively, it's a wash. I think Davey was a bit better, but its certainly close enough to be a wash. That leaves the bat and the bases. Well, Smith was a much better baserunner (and stealer). Edge Smith...by far. Hitting-wise, they were somewhat similar. Very little power, mediocre average hitter. The difference is in these stats:

Walk/strikeout ratios ( 1186 k's & 736 bb for Davey / 589 k's # 1072 bb for Ozzie )
Sacrifice hits ( 74 for Davey / 214 for Ozzie )
Hit into double plays ( 266 for Davey / 167 for Ozzie ).

All three catagories, Smith takes in a landslide. Ozzie...and it's not even close. Sorry Davey. We still love you. :O)

Johnny Footstool
07-10-2008, 12:51 PM
...Defensively, it's a wash...

Nah. Davey was great, but Ozzie was clearly better, even with all the hype.

_Sir_Charles_
07-10-2008, 01:41 PM
Nah. Davey was great, but Ozzie was clearly better, even with all the hype.

I don't think he was better. He made the flashier plays and was in the "highlight" era more. But it's pretty much a useless debate. They both had the best range of their era's, they both had great accuracy & zip on their throws, and they both had great instincts. The differences defensively were pretty small...at least small enough to make it a wash.

AtomicDumpling
07-10-2008, 11:04 PM
Concepcion made the hard plays look easy. Ozzie made the easy plays look hard.

The reason it is called the Hall of Fame instead of the Hall of Skill is because perception is more important than reality. Ozzie was more famous, Davey was overshadowed by the Big Red Machine.

As this thread has proven, it is very difficult to differentiate the skills and production of the two players. They were extremely similar both offensively and defensively. Yet one of them was a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer and the other one will never be inducted.

It is just another example of why the Hall of Fame is not very meaningful. There are several players in the Hall of Fame that have absolutely no business there, while some of the best (and most famous) players the game has ever seen are not there.

I am always amused when the debate for/against players like Ozzie and Concepcion turns to their offensive "prowess". Believe me, Ozzie Smith's election to the Hall of Fame had absolutely nothing to do with his hitting ability.