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chicoruiz
01-02-2007, 08:22 PM
Our story so far:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Travis Wood

I've added enough names to the list to bring it up to an even dozen. Again, if you think I'm missing someone who should be considered soon, let me know.

reds44
01-02-2007, 08:25 PM
Might want to make a poll.

chicoruiz
01-02-2007, 08:26 PM
Cheez, gimme a minute... :p:

...And sorry about misspelling "prospect" in the poll heading...haste makes waste.

tomd63
01-02-2007, 08:38 PM
Cheez, gimme a minute... :p:

...And sorry about misspelling "prospect" in the poll heading...haste makes waste.

I'm sure "Joey" Hamilton forgives you. :)

mth123
01-02-2007, 09:05 PM
The drop off from #5 is really big isn't it? I think Sean Watson, Josh Ravin, Drew Stubbs, Chris Valaika and Milton Loo all have promise but I need to see something beyond rookie ball to put a guy in the top 10. Just my preference. Chris Dickerson and Cody Strait have tools but are on-base challenged. (Need to trade these guys to leatherpants.) Paul Janisch is growing on me, but right now he still seems like a dime a dozen utility MI. Joey Hamilton may not stay with the Reds and has the drug thing dogging him. Obispo is a complete unknown. Bobby Livingston is too soft a tosser to likely contribute.

That leads me to my vote for Sam Lecure. 141 innings at A+, very passable HR, Walks and K's. He has the look of a mid rotation inning eater. If the Reds can produce a few of those from within its a huge plus. One asset for a small market team is the ability to avoid the trap of paying $5 to $6 Million for guys like Steve Trachsel and Kyle Lohse to stink up the bottom of the rotation. Having even bottom end of the rotation guys in the pipeline is a step in the right direction.

Its a big year for Lecure. He'll be making the biggest jump in baseball from A+ to AA. If he does well, he moves into the Reds upper echelon IMO.

Chico Ruiz, you are doing a fine job with these polls. Given my comments about the other guys on the list, please add David Shafer, John Coutlangus, Calvin Medlock and Carlos Fisher to the next poll.

edabbs44
01-02-2007, 09:10 PM
Gotta go Stubbs here...though I'm not in love with his bat, he can add value with speed and his glove.

Gallen5862
01-02-2007, 09:14 PM
I voted Stubbs. This is the part where the prospects are real tightly bunched.

DoogMinAmo
01-02-2007, 09:43 PM
I went with Valaika. Dude had a historic and amazing offensive season, along with being at a premium position... voila.

chicoruiz
01-02-2007, 09:57 PM
I'm sure "Joey" Hamilton forgives you.

Yikes...I've been up since 2am; does it show? If someone knows how to edit poll options, please let me know; I'm embarrassing myself.


please add David Shafer, John Coutlangus, Calvin Medlock and Carlos Fisher to the next poll.

Considered all of them for this poll, but couldn't see including one without including them all. Plus Pelland, Guevara, Salmon, Dumatrait.. they're all kind of bunched IMHO. I will stick them in the next poll, although by the time I'm finished typing, their names may not be recognizable...:rolleyes:

dougdirt
01-02-2007, 10:13 PM
I went with Stubbs over Valaika. Stubbs, while very unimpressive with his batting average, showed some pop in his bat, his speed swiped him 20 bases and he plays great defense and knows how to take a walk.

tbball10
01-02-2007, 10:16 PM
why is hamilton on the list? he has to be on the major league roster, so he is no longer a prospect.

mth123
01-02-2007, 10:18 PM
Considered all of them for this poll, but couldn't see including one without including them all. Plus Pelland, Guevara, Salmon, Dumatrait.. they're all kind of bunched IMHO. I will stick them in the next poll, although by the time I'm finished typing, their names may not be recognizable...:rolleyes:

Thanks, but it may not matter. Looking like I'll get to vote for Lecure a couple more times.:)

Cyclone792
01-02-2007, 10:19 PM
I voted for Stubbs due to his defensive prowess and plate discipline, but this is a huge season for Stubbs to break out at least a little bit. If he doesn't perform this season for whatever reason, then it may start to look dicey for him.

Betterread
01-02-2007, 10:27 PM
I voted for Valaika, who is a hitting machine. He will move fast. More patience will be needed for Stubbs.

NDRed
01-02-2007, 10:33 PM
I had to go with Valaika. Since he has an awesome bat

chicoruiz
01-02-2007, 10:40 PM
why is hamilton on the list? he has to be on the major league roster, so he is no longer a prospect.


To me, anyone's a prospect who hasn't yet established a level of performance at the big league level. Livingston's on the list, and I suppose I'd put Hopper on if there was public outcry in that direction. Heck, I've seen "prospect" lists this offseason that include Denorfia; that's where I draw the line.

lollipopcurve
01-02-2007, 10:51 PM
For me, Stubbs and Valaika are the next two. Went with Stubbs, based on his defense, speed, power potential and modicum of plate discipline -- if the bat develops, he'll be in CF for the Reds for a long time.

Agree with those who'd like to see Pelland and some of the relievers added to the list.

I do like this group of Reds prospects -- I don't think it's a cliff-like dropoff after 5 at all. This is the strongest the system's been in a long time.

Kc61
01-02-2007, 10:57 PM
I went with Stubbs over Valaika. Stubbs, while very unimpressive with his batting average, showed some pop in his bat, his speed swiped him 20 bases and he plays great defense and knows how to take a walk.

My rationale for Chris over Drew is that hitting is the defining stat for a position player. Surely, Stubbs has all the other tools, defense, speed, power. But until he shows that he can hit the ball consistently, he is lower than Chris on my list.

I'm glad to see you are relatively high on Stubbs, though. I hope he has a great year and rockets up the Reds' list next year.

Superdude
01-02-2007, 10:58 PM
We finally got a close one going. I'll go with Stubbs though. Everyone questions his hitting ability... and for good reason, but the guy's literally got every thing else going for him: freakish athleticism, lots of power, plate discipline, speed, and great defense. I'll take the Caucasion version Mike Cameron, and you never know, a simple swing change may produce the next Grady Sizemore.

Falls City Beer
01-02-2007, 11:12 PM
Thanks, but it may not matter. Looking like I'll get to vote for Lecure a couple more times.:)

I like Lecure--slow and steady wins a bullpen spot.

Betterread
01-02-2007, 11:15 PM
I think these polls are a great idea. However, leaving out Tyler Pelland, who pitched effectively at AA at age 22 while including Wirfin Obispo, who is 22 and has never pitched for a Reds affiliate in the US (the DSL is on the level of the GCL) is perplexing to me.

dougdirt
01-02-2007, 11:17 PM
My rationale for Chris over Drew is that hitting is the defining stat for a position player. Surely, Stubbs has all the other tools, defense, speed, power. But until he shows that he can hit the ball consistently, he is lower than Chris on my list.

I'm glad to see you are relatively high on Stubbs, though. I hope he has a great year and rockets up the Reds' list next year.

The reason I chose Stubbs over Valaika was all of his tools. I dont get completely excited over what someone does in Rookie ball, good or bad. Some guys just need time to adjust to pro ball. Stubbs is a freak athlete, Valaika is just a good one. I love the bat speed that Valaika has though, and he is the guy I will vote for without question after Stubbs.

Oh and betterread, there is a reason Obispo has 0 votes....he shouldnt be on this poll and probably shouldnt be thought about until about 20....he is the most unknown player out there...He has a good fastball, thats all anyone really knows about him... its like a guy who can hit 500 foot batting practice HRs.....its impressive, but what does it truly tell you about a player?

DoogMinAmo
01-03-2007, 12:35 AM
I'm sure "Joey" Hamilton forgives you. :)


I don't know what is worse, the spelling mistake in the first place or the 11 people who voted "Joey" Hamilton a Reds top prospect :p:

Blue
01-03-2007, 01:54 AM
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Joey-Hamilton.shtml

:all_cohol

My vote is for Stubbs. Defense, patience, and game changing speed. The only question is whether he'll have wood-bat power, and that feature of his game really came around late with Billings.

Blue
01-03-2007, 01:56 AM
I'd like to see 2006 6th round pick 2B Justin Turner added to the list.

Ron Madden
01-03-2007, 04:09 AM
I went with LeCure for #5 was going to vote Wood for #6.

Since Wood won the last round.. I'll again vote for Sam LeCure.

Mario-Rijo
01-03-2007, 06:24 PM
I voted for Hamilton. I think alot of these guys may be too far away (or haven't been around long enough) yet to get a solid read on. Of course you could certainly make that argument for Hamilton as well but he does have perhaps unequalled talent at this point in the rankings.

I could be convinced to vote real soon on a Medlock, Shafer, Pelland, Dumatrait, Guevara, Daryl Thompson or Salmon if I knew more about them. But I didn't really ever get a good scouting report on any of them. :help:

But what about Jared Burton? We did afterall choose him over Hamilton in the Rule V. I would assume he would be worthy of consideration at this point.

We also got Francisco Mateo and Nick Moran, don't know alot about them beyond their stats! Does anyone? :confused:

dougdirt
01-03-2007, 09:21 PM
We didnt choose him over Hamilton. Hamilton was taken by the Cubs in the #3 spot, we were drafting later than that....

Superdude
01-03-2007, 09:41 PM
I don't have a clue about where to put Hamilton. I literally have no idea what to expect out of him.

Cyclone792
01-04-2007, 12:13 AM
I don't have a clue about where to put Hamilton. I literally have no idea what to expect out of him.

Hamilton won't make my Top 10 at all. He's not a prospect to me; instead, he's more like a longshot hope and prayer. Hamilton will be almost 26-years-old by the time spring training rolls around, and he has exactly 23 games above high-A ball, all of which were six seasons ago. In fact, his 15 games in 2006 were the first professional baseball games he's played in since the 2002 season.

The odds of him being anything more than a marginal bench player on a major league roster are beyond outrageous. That won't prevent me from rooting for him, because I really hope he's able to find success in baseball. I really hope he makes it in baseball not just for the Reds' sake but mostly for his own sake. Actually, what I hope for the most is that he's at least able to get his life back together and on the right path for good, regardless of whether or not baseball is in it.

Still, the odds of him being any type of impact player are tall ... very, very tall.

RedsManRick
01-04-2007, 12:19 AM
I agree that Hamilton is completely off the board. He's just a different animal altogether. I know of no precedence for something like this. With all the other talent we have comps and known risks, attrition rates, etc. With him, it's who knows. I would love to see him become a bonafide major league. But frankly, if he was in Chattanooga this year, a .750 OPS would impress me.

I voted for Stubbs because of the defensive rep and the patience. I'm more worried about contact than power for him. Wiry little guys often don't hit for power until they mature physically. But I don't think they grow in to good contact hitters often. Let's see if that discipline holds up when he faces guys who can pitch with movement in the zone regularly.

reds44
01-04-2007, 12:22 AM
Stubbs just needs to hit. If he can hit at all, he'll save alot of runs in CF.

Cyclone792
01-04-2007, 12:38 AM
Let me add that despite my longshot odds on Josh Hamilton, I really wouldn't have much of a problem with him being a fifth outfielder and 25th man on the active roster next season. Heck, I'd rather have him on the roster than Juan Castro, though that's not saying a whole lot.

If Hamilton can play great outfield defense, and if Narron manages him correctly, I think he could help out the team a little bit next season. He's a type of guy who would probably help the club with a boost to the late-inning outfield defense, and using him in that manner would also keep his plate appearances minimal since he probably won't do much of anything at the plate.

Despite the outrageous odds with Hamilton's ability to hit major league pitching, if he can be an asset to the Reds defensively, I'm fine with him being the fifth outfielder and 25th man on the active roster.

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2007, 12:57 AM
We didnt choose him over Hamilton. Hamilton was taken by the Cubs in the #3 spot, we were drafting later than that....


Touche'. For some reason I had that mixed up. Of course he was still chosen and if Hamilton makes the list I would imagine he should also get some consideration.

dougdirt
01-04-2007, 01:04 AM
In my mind, Hamilton doesnt begin to touch my list until the 30s....to much time off to even know if he has the tools left outside of power (heard of some 500 foot BP HR, so the power is still there I guess), but he is old and hasnt played since I graduated High School.

reds44
01-04-2007, 01:14 AM
Let me add that despite my longshot odds on Josh Hamilton, I really wouldn't have much of a problem with him being a fifth outfielder and 25th man on the active roster next season. Heck, I'd rather have him on the roster than Juan Castro, though that's not saying a whole lot.

If Hamilton can play great outfield defense, and if Narron manages him correctly, I think he could help out the team a little bit next season. He's a type of guy who would probably help the club with a boost to the late-inning outfield defense, and using him in that manner would also keep his plate appearances minimal since he probably won't do much of anything at the plate.

Despite the outrageous odds with Hamilton's ability to hit major league pitching, if he can be an asset to the Reds defensively, I'm fine with him being the fifth outfielder and 25th man on the active roster.
Is he known as a good defender?

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2007, 01:32 AM
Just some info on Burton, might help figure him out a bit. Looks like he has a live arm, not easy to hit and he appears to be agressive. Less hits (71) than IP (74), only 7 HR in 53 games and 66 K's to 27 BB's. Could be a future Closer candidate.


Individual Pitching Stats
Team League Level W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB K HBP AVG TPA BK WP STR%
Midland RockHounds TEX AA 6 5 4.14 53 0 1 74.0 71 36 34 7 27 66 3 .255 314 0 9 .700
TOTALS 6 5 4.14 53 0 1 74.0 71 36 34 7 27 66 3 .255 314 0 9 .700


Here we go check out this synopsis on him, talk about in depth. Of course this is an evaluation from '04 and he has clearly improved something since then.

http://www.calleaguers.com/BurtonJared.html

Complete College and MiLB stats.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/jared-burton.shtml

A short story from the Sylvia (S.C.?) Herald 6-13-02


Jared Burton is chosen by A's in Major League Baseball draft
Western Carolina pitcher Jared Burton was selected in the eighth round, the 248th pick overall, by the Oakland A's during the annual Major League Baseball draft.
Burton, who is from Westminster, S.C., showed marked improvement over his career. His ERA dropped from 8.01 as a freshman, to 5.01 as a sophomore and to 3.76 this season. His strikeout numbers increased from 40 in 48.1 innings as a freshman, to 67 in 93.1 innings as a sophomore and 105 in 103 innings this past season.

Burton tied for the team lead with seven wins, and he paced the Catamounts in ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and holding opponents to a .256 batting average. He walked 31 to go along with his 105 K's for a 3.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

According to "Baseball America," Burton caught the attention of scouts "by excelling in outings against ACC powers Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson." Burton struck out seven Seminoles in six innings as WCU fell 3-0 to top-ranked FSU. Against number four Georgia Tech, he fanned two in just one inning's work. He capped the regular-season with an impressive outing against Clemson, which was ranked first nationally at the time. He gave up four runs in the first two innings, but allowed the Cats to tie the game at 4-4 through 7.2 innings as he retired 19 of 20 batters during one stretch. He ended up striking out seven Tigers in 8.2 innings.

Burton had a dominating performance on March 8 when he threw a complete game shutout at UNC-Greensboro. He allowed three hits and no Spartan advanced past second base. He struck out 10 while walking one and was named Southern Conference Pitcher of the Week.

The following week, Burton fanned 10 with one walk in a win over Wofford. He equalled the feat with 10 K's at Davidson. In back-to-back outings against Virginia Military and East Tennessee, Burton did not allow a run in 13 innings as he surrendered seven hits with 13 strikeouts.

Burton ranked second in the conference in strikeouts. He is 10th on WCU's career strikeout list with 212 and ninth on the school's career list for innings pitched with 244.2.






Brief College info prior to his Jr year.

2001: Posted a 5-2 record in 14 starts with a 5.01 ERA ... Led the team with 93.1 innings pitched, which ranked 10th in the SoCon, and strikeouts 67 ... Team was 10-4 in his 14 starts ... Only walked two batters over his last 17.1 innings pitched, with 15 strikeouts ... Ended the season with a nearly 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio ... Struck out a career-high 13 batters in pitching his first career nine-inning complete game versus UNC Greensboro (3/16) ... Surrendered five hits, one run and three walks in the contest... The UNCG win capped three consecutive dominating performances, getting a combined 13 strikeouts with zero walks in 15.1 innings ... Prior to that, he earned the win in game one at Wofford (3/4), pitching 8.0 innings and scattering eight hits with one earned run, six strikeouts and zero walks ... In his next game — at College of Charleston (3/9) — pitched 7.1 innings, allowing six hits, two runs and zero walks with seven strikeouts ... After getting only one decision, a loss vs. No. 6 Tennessee, in a six-game span, improved to 5-2 in WCU’s lone win at Furman ... Pitched 5.1 innings, allowing six hits and four runs (three earned).

2000: Named the Southern Conference Pitcher of the Week (Feb. 24) in just his third collegiate appearance ... Struck out 12 Wright State batters in 7.0 innings, while walking just three and allowing only three hits, to pick up his first career win ... Also had a double-digit strikeout performance versus Georgia State, fanning 10 Panthers in 5.0 innings and walking just two ... Recorded a win versus Elon, pitching 7.0 innings, striking out five, walking one and allowing four hits ... Led WCU with 11 games started and two complete games ... Had 40 strike outs in 48.1 innings pitched and posted a 2-5 record.

HIGH SCHOOL: 1998 Skyline Conference Player of the Year ... Three-time all-conference selection ... Member of the S.C. North -South All-Star team in 1999 ... 1996 Skyline Conference Freshman of the Year ... Team won back-to-back conference and district championships in 1998-99 ... Was a combined 25-10 in three years with 287 strike outs in 197 innings pitched ... Played for head coach Andy Swords ... Two-time all-conference basketball player ... Made the all-state basketball team as a senior ... Scored 1,000 points during his career.

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2007, 01:47 AM
Heck I guess I should have just done a Prospect Profile on him and adopted him. :rolleyes:

Cyclone792
01-04-2007, 01:49 AM
Is he known as a good defender?

From what I've read, he at least used to be known as a plus defender in the corner outfield who could also play center field if necessary. Whether that's still true or not, I'm not sure anybody knows. One reason why he was so highly touted as a prospect originally is because he was just an all-around excellent athlete. The good news is outfield defensive skills should be much more easier to reclaim than hitting skills so hopefully the lack of professional games shouldn't hurt him too much defensively. What most everybody's worried about is how well he can suddenly just learn to hit major league pitching.

Or, one other way to paraphrase Hamilton's defensive value is just saying that he's probably quite a bit better than both Dunn and Griffey with the glove in the outfield, though that's not saying a whole lot either.

lollipopcurve
01-04-2007, 11:28 AM
Wiry little guys often don't hit for power until they mature physically.

Stubbs may be somewhat wiry, but he isn't little -- he's 6'4", sometimes listed as 6'5"

paintmered
01-04-2007, 12:35 PM
Stubbs may be somewhat wiry, but he isn't little -- he's 6'4", sometimes listed as 6'5"

He's also 22 years old now. Maybe he's got another two years to fill out physically. But the clock certainly is not in his favor.

Any idea what level he is going to be placed at this year? Will he repeat in Billings? Could we see him in Dayton?

dougdirt
01-04-2007, 01:02 PM
There is no way he goes back to Billings....and honestly if he started out in Sarasota I would not be surprised at all.

Redman15
01-04-2007, 03:51 PM
I think Stubbs will start out in Dayton. I think they will try and keep alot of the Billings guy's together to start and then move some of them to Sarasota during the season. The Reds organzation don't seem to fast track too many guy's thru the system. Homer Baily is a perfect example.

dougdirt
01-04-2007, 04:12 PM
Homer Bailey was fast tracked. No high school pitcher from his draft has made it further than he has.

TRF
01-04-2007, 05:34 PM
Stubbs has shown very little aside from athleticism. 56 games does not a top 10 prospect make for me. LeCure has actual results at a far higher level.

dougdirt
01-04-2007, 05:43 PM
I think this should be shut down and a #7 one started. Stubbs currently has a 15 vote lead with 97 votes present.... I would say its wrapped up.

Redman15
01-04-2007, 06:01 PM
Doug you are right about the HS guy's in the 2004 draft. I was looking at guy's like Weaver,Verlander and Sowers from the 2004 draft that were fast tracked to the Big leagues and forgot Homer was drafted out of high school.I would hope Homer has been invited to Big League camp and gets a chance at the the #4 or #5 starter spot, but my gut feeling is that he will end up in Louisville and get a late September call up.

dougdirt
01-04-2007, 06:20 PM
Homer will be in ST....he was there last season, albeit just as a "this is where you want to be, have a taste". I honestly think Homer could have a legit shot at the rotation out of spring, but he has to perform well. If he goes to Louisville out of ST, then I dont think he stays there more than 3 months.

camisadelgolf
01-09-2007, 05:35 PM
Stubbs has shown very little aside from athleticism. 56 games does not a top 10 prospect make for me. LeCure has actual results at a far higher level.

What did you think of Stephen Smitherman?

TRF
01-09-2007, 06:38 PM
Well, it's obvious that he couldn't handle AAA pitching, much less MLB. Prior to 2003 I wasn't as aware of a lot of players in the minors that weren't top draft choices. The internet really is a wonderful thing.

That said, at the same age, in the same league, Smitherman destroyed Pioneer league pitching while Stubbs was so-so. Now the pitching league wide was likely different, maybe better now, maybe worse, I don't know.

But what has Stubbs shown anyone that makes him a top 10 prospect?

dougdirt
01-09-2007, 07:28 PM
What has Stubbs done to say he isnt? 180 at bats?

Superdude
01-09-2007, 07:41 PM
Those were important at bats dude.

dougdirt
01-09-2007, 07:51 PM
But what has Stubbs shown anyone that makes him a top 10 prospect?

His speed.
His base running ability.
His defense.
His plate discipline.
His power.

TRF
01-10-2007, 10:30 AM
He does have speed. His power to this point is pheh.

4 guys on that Billings squad had FAR better numbers, and only Valaika is mentioned as a top ten prospect. 2 other guys had stats similar to Stubbs. nary a sniff there either. 210 AB's in rookie ball don't do it for me. It's why i didn't vote for Valaika either.

Redman15
01-10-2007, 01:03 PM
What about all the at-bats they had in College before they reported to Billings?
Stubbs was the MVP at Texas and Big 12 Conference Player of the Year. Valaika was the MVP at UCSB.Turner was the MVP at Fullerton and was the Big West Conference Player of the Year. These guy's had outstanding college careers with Stubbs and Turner both winning National Championships.Stubbs played in the CWS 2 out 3 years and Turner 3 out of 4. Here are their stats for 2006 prior to playing at Billings.

*************AVG * GM........AB....R....H.....2b..3b..Hr...RBI..SB
Stubbs, Drew..... .342...62-62....243...65...83...14...4...12...58...26
Valaika, Chris...... .335...54-54....227...44...76....12...1...10...57...4
Turner, Justin..... .355...65-65....287...63..102...19...4....4...43...20

I'm sure the main reason they where in Billings was they had already played 60
plus games in college. Stubbs didn't hit well in Billings, but Valaika and Turner picked up right where they left off. This year will be the true test for these guy's.

TRF
01-10-2007, 02:22 PM
What about all the at-bats they had in College before they reported to Billings?
Stubbs was the MVP at Texas and Big 12 Conference Player of the Year. Valaika was the MVP at UCSB.Turner was the MVP at Fullerton and was the Big West Conference Player of the Year. These guy's had outstanding college careers with Stubbs and Turner both winning National Championships.Stubbs played in the CWS 2 out 3 years and Turner 3 out of 4. Here are their stats for 2006 prior to playing at Billings.

*************AVG * GM........AB....R....H.....2b..3b..Hr...RBI..SB
Stubbs, Drew..... .342...62-62....243...65...83...14...4...12...58...26
Valaika, Chris...... .335...54-54....227...44...76....12...1...10...57...4
Turner, Justin..... .355...65-65....287...63..102...19...4....4...43...20

I'm sure the main reason they where in Billings was they had already played 60
plus games in college. Stubbs didn't hit well in Billings, but Valaika and Turner picked up right where they left off. This year will be the true test for these guy's.

And while Valaika is getting much love, Turner is not. Stubbs is despite having weaker offensive stats at Billings. Maybe it's his defense. I still don't like handing a top ten billing to a guy that has 210 pro AB's all at the Pioneer League.

dougdirt
01-10-2007, 02:29 PM
Prospects are all about what can you become....especially prior to your first full season. I mean its great that we have some middle relief guys who performed well in AA, but there is no way they should be ahead of a first round pick prior to the completion of his first full season.

TRF
01-10-2007, 05:00 PM
Why not? 1st of all, Medlock should still be a starter. His numbers are actually really, really good. And they were good as a starter too.

Everyone seems to be ranking Jay Bruce higher than Cueto, which makes no sense to me as Cueto has performed as well as Bruce, albeit on the mound, and at a higher level.

IMO Stubbs should not be ranked higher than Medlock. In fact, IMO no prospect below A- should be ranked at all.

Patrick Bateman
01-10-2007, 05:13 PM
Everyone seems to be ranking Jay Bruce higher than Cueto, which makes no sense to me as Cueto has performed as well as Bruce, albeit on the mound, and at a higher level.

Because Jay Bruce has way more potential. He could be a potential all-star calibre player, and is having success. Cueto is obviously a good prospect too, but he doesn't have a ceiling in the same ballpark as Bruce's. He doesn't have ace pitcher potential.


IMO Stubbs should not be ranked higher than Medlock.

I disagree there. Medlock has nice numbers, but poor projection. I see no reason to believe he's anything more than a 5th starter/middle reliever type. He has a better chance of reaching the majors than Stubbs, but Stubbs has incomparable tools.

I usually prefer guys with a lot of potential, unless their chances of reaching their ceiling is next to nill. In Stubbs' case, his chances are poor, but the overall package is still a lot more enticing than Medlock's IMO. It's a lot easier to find mediocre/bad pitchers, then it is to find guys that have the potential to be top players.

dougdirt
01-10-2007, 05:42 PM
Why not? 1st of all, Medlock should still be a starter. His numbers are actually really, really good. And they were good as a starter too.

Everyone seems to be ranking Jay Bruce higher than Cueto, which makes no sense to me as Cueto has performed as well as Bruce, albeit on the mound, and at a higher level.

IMO Stubbs should not be ranked higher than Medlock. In fact, IMO no prospect below A- should be ranked at all.

Jay Bruce is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball for a reason. His potential is at the top with almost everyone. As a 19 year old in the Midwest League, he ran wild on the league. While Cueto ran wild on the league on the mound, he has a few things going against him. 1, his size. He is short, and short pitchers dont work out to often as starters (yes there are exceptions). 2, compared to Bruce, he started the year 1 year older and at the same stage. 3, his cieling isnt that of Jay Bruce....Jay is a legit 5 tool player, who actually has the skill to put each of them to use. He has tons of power already and has some maturing to go. He is fast, has a good glove and a rocket arm.

As for Stubbs being higher than Medlock....there is very little love for middle relievers, anywhere. The reason being, they are only so important.... Sure, Medlock was a starter his entire career until this year, but he isnt a starter anymore. He performed very well in his new role, but becuase of his new role, his prospects are only going to be valued to a certain point, and nowhere in the top 10 in my mind. To that point, I think Josh Ravin is a better prospect than Medlock at this point. He throws 3 pitches, and has hit 96 on the radar gun this past summer in Billings. He is a starter. Those attributes put him ahead of Medlock already.

You can disagree all you want with guys below Dayton not being ranked in the top 10, but most will disagree with you....specifically if those guys were just drafted this past year.

TRF
01-10-2007, 06:29 PM
Because Jay Bruce has way more potential. He could be a potential all-star calibre player, and is having success. Cueto is obviously a good prospect too, but he doesn't have a ceiling in the same ballpark as Bruce's. He doesn't have ace pitcher potential.

I disagree there. Medlock has nice numbers, but poor projection. I see no reason to believe he's anything more than a 5th starter/middle reliever type. He has a better chance of reaching the majors than Stubbs, but Stubbs has incomparable tools.

I usually prefer guys with a lot of potential, unless their chances of reaching their ceiling is next to nill. In Stubbs' case, his chances are poor, but the overall package is still a lot more enticing than Medlock's IMO. It's a lot easier to find mediocre/bad pitchers, then it is to find guys that have the potential to be top players.

So why does Stubbs rate higher? Why does he rate higher than 5 other guys that out performed him on his own team?


Jay Bruce is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball for a reason. His potential is at the top with almost everyone. As a 19 year old in the Midwest League, he ran wild on the league. While Cueto ran wild on the league on the mound, he has a few things going against him. 1, his size. He is short, and short pitchers dont work out to often as starters (yes there are exceptions). 2, compared to Bruce, he started the year 1 year older and at the same stage. 3, his cieling isnt that of Jay Bruce....Jay is a legit 5 tool player, who actually has the skill to put each of them to use. He has tons of power already and has some maturing to go. He is fast, has a good glove and a rocket arm.

As for Stubbs being higher than Medlock....there is very little love for middle relievers, anywhere. The reason being, they are only so important.... Sure, Medlock was a starter his entire career until this year, but he isnt a starter anymore. He performed very well in his new role, but becuase of his new role, his prospects are only going to be valued to a certain point, and nowhere in the top 10 in my mind. To that point, I think Josh Ravin is a better prospect than Medlock at this point. He throws 3 pitches, and has hit 96 on the radar gun this past summer in Billings. He is a starter. Those attributes put him ahead of Medlock already.

You can disagree all you want with guys below Dayton not being ranked in the top 10, but most will disagree with you....specifically if those guys were just drafted this past year.

This leads to a discussion I started about failed prospects. The Reds organization moved a starting pitcher (Medlock) that was having success as a starter to the bullpen. The organization obviously viewed him as a reliever. The same org. that has failed to develop a single starter worth half a crap since Tomko. And he really wasn't that good. Medlock hits 95, and K's a ton of batters, and he's done that at every level. But 39th round draft choices don't get a lot of press. Though Coffey has done well as a low draft pick.

At what point does performance count? What has Stubbs actually done to warrant his rank? I mean I want him to succeed, I just haven't seen him do anything yet. This same type of philosophy pushe Reggie Taylor up the ladder to the Major Leagues without actually performing well enough to play in the major leagues.

Patrick Bateman
01-10-2007, 06:41 PM
So why does Stubbs rate higher? Why does he rate higher than 5 other guys that out performed him on his own team?


Because there is more to prospects then stats, especially at the lower levels. Stubbs may not tbe the best hitter of the bunch, but he has the highest ceiling, and that must be taken into account along with his current production.

As Stubbs gets older he will have to start showing his potential, as stats get more important as time goes on. Some prospects develop slower than others. Stubbs has a lot of untapped power potential, which is pretty normal for young players. Stubbs has a long way to go, but his potential still far exceeds his peers.

dougdirt
01-10-2007, 07:08 PM
So why does Stubbs rate higher? Why does he rate higher than 5 other guys that out performed him on his own team?



This leads to a discussion I started about failed prospects. The Reds organization moved a starting pitcher (Medlock) that was having success as a starter to the bullpen. The organization obviously viewed him as a reliever. The same org. that has failed to develop a single starter worth half a crap since Tomko. And he really wasn't that good. Medlock hits 95, and K's a ton of batters, and he's done that at every level. But 39th round draft choices don't get a lot of press. Though Coffey has done well as a low draft pick.

At what point does performance count? What has Stubbs actually done to warrant his rank? I mean I want him to succeed, I just haven't seen him do anything yet. This same type of philosophy pushe Reggie Taylor up the ladder to the Major Leagues without actually performing well enough to play in the major leagues.

I am with you on Medlock....I cant believe still that they pushed him to the bullpen, but they did. With all of that, he doesnt rank very high with me, as my view on middle relievers is well, not so hot. As for when performance counts....it always counts, but I am not going to put a lot into less than a half seasons worth of at bats from Drew Stubbs when he played at sucha big time program in college and was very good and he has tons of tools. At the end of next season, if Stubbs replicates the same numbers in the MWL or FSL that he did in the Pioneer League, I will begin to worry....until then, I am relying on scouting reports and his tools, just like with Valaika and Watson... You have to look at the entire package.

TRF
01-11-2007, 12:16 AM
Because there is more to prospects then stats, especially at the lower levels. Stubbs may not tbe the best hitter of the bunch, but he has the highest ceiling, and that must be taken into account along with his current production.

As Stubbs gets older he will have to start showing his potential, as stats get more important as time goes on. Some prospects develop slower than others. Stubbs has a lot of untapped power potential, which is pretty normal for young players. Stubbs has a long way to go, but his potential still far exceeds his peers.

Reggie Taylor was once a first round draft choice. I'd say stats and performance should be as important as this intangible ceiling.

Patrick Bateman
01-11-2007, 12:30 AM
Reggie Taylor was once a first round draft choice. I'd say stats and performance should be as important as this intangible ceiling.

And Reggie Taylor never did produce on his promise. The numbers part gets increasingly important as a player progresses through the system. The fact that he didn't hit superbly in rookie ball wouldn't be as concerning as if in 2 years he still wasn't showing any power. He still has lots of time to develop.

And just because one player that is comparable to Stubbs failed doesn't make it a fact that Stubbs will too. There are failures for every type of guy. Players like Stubbs usually progress slowly (which is what makes him a risky investment). With more time I think we will get a better indication whether Stubbs can hit or not rather than simply using a couple hundred at-bats in rookie ball to map out his future.

Stats are extremely important too. And I agree they are just as important as ceiling. You have to find a middle ground on the 2 things. IMO, Medlock simply has too low of a ceiling to merit consideration anywhere close to the top 10 prospects. His numbers are nice, but a middle reliever prospect doesn't make me look forward in excitement for the future.

TRF
01-11-2007, 10:37 AM
And Reggie Taylor never did produce on his promise. The numbers part gets increasingly important as a player progresses through the system. The fact that he didn't hit superbly in rookie ball wouldn't be as concerning as if in 2 years he still wasn't showing any power. He still has lots of time to develop.

And just because one player that is comparable to Stubbs failed doesn't make it a fact that Stubbs will too. There are failures for every type of guy. Players like Stubbs usually progress slowly (which is what makes him a risky investment). With more time I think we will get a better indication whether Stubbs can hit or not rather than simply using a couple hundred at-bats in rookie ball to map out his future.

Stats are extremely important too. And I agree they are just as important as ceiling. You have to find a middle ground on the 2 things. IMO, Medlock simply has too low of a ceiling to merit consideration anywhere close to the top 10 prospects. His numbers are nice, but a middle reliever prospect doesn't make me look forward in excitement for the future.

My problem is you have him labeled as a middle reliever prospect. Though I think he should still be a starter, I'm betting that if he's in AA this year, which he should NOT be, that he's the closer. His K/9 is just too good to not be an impact player.