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Spitball
01-03-2007, 08:40 PM
Red Sox, Pineiro agree to preliminary $4 million deal By Jerry Crasnick
ESPN.com


Pitcher Joel Pineiro has reached preliminary agreement on a one-year deal for a guaranteed $4 million with the Boston Red Sox, multiple baseball sources said Wednesday.

The contract is contingent on Pineiro passing a physical exam later this week, the sources said. The deal includes a player option for 2008 and $2 million in performance bonuses based on games finished, according to The Associated Press.

Pineiro, who pitched exclusively as a starter during his last four seasons with Seattle, is expected to work out of the bullpen for Boston. He could be given a chance to compete for the team's closer's job in spring training.

Jonathan Papelbon, who saved 35 games as a rookie for the Red Sox before going down with shoulder problems, is expected to move to the starting rotation in 2007. Veterans Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez and youngsters Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen could also be in the mix for the closer's job when the Red Sox arrive in spring training in Fort Myers, Fla., in February.

Pineiro, 28, went a combined 30-18 for the Mariners in 2002-03, but has tailed off badly over the last three seasons. His ERA has risen from 3.78 to 6.36 since the 2003 season, and his ratio of strikeouts per nine innings has declined from 7.10 to 4.73 over the past three years.

Some scouts, however, think that Pineiro can do a better job of maintaining his velocity and effectiveness in shorter doses out of the bullpen.

Pineiro made a base salary of $6.8 million last season, but became a free agent in December when the Mariners declined to offer him a contract rather than have him go to salary arbitration.

While the Red Sox have considered the idea of using Papelbon as a closer again next year, they're leaning strongly toward pitching him in the rotation. Red Sox officials think that Papelbon has a better chance of staying healthy and having a more productive future as a starter.

Even with Pineiro in the bullpen, Boston currently has six starters -- Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Papelbon and Jon Lester.

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 09:48 PM
Not sure why he wasn't pursued instead of the Geriatric Gang.

pedro
01-03-2007, 09:51 PM
Not sure why he wasn't pursued instead of the Geriatric Gang.


Are you kidding? If The Reds signed Piniero, RZ would meltdown. Hell, we already have him in the form of Kyle Lohse (who is better IMO) and everyone is freaking out that we haven't cut him.

Falls City Beer
01-03-2007, 09:52 PM
Pineiro blows corn. He'll be a disaster in Boston.

pedro
01-03-2007, 09:52 PM
EASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2000 Sea 8 1 0 0 19.1 25 13 12 3 13 10 1 0 0 0 -- 5.59
2001 Sea 17 11 0 0 75.1 50 24 17 2 21 56 6 2 0 2 -- 2.03
2002 Sea 37 28 2 1 194.1 189 75 70 24 54 136 14 7 0 3 -- 3.24
2003 Sea 32 32 3 2 211.2 192 94 89 19 76 151 16 11 0 0 -- 3.78
2004 Sea 21 21 1 0 140.2 144 77 73 21 43 111 6 11 0 0 -- 4.67
2005 Sea 30 30 2 0 189.0 224 118 118 23 56 107 7 11 0 0 -- 5.62
2006 Sea 40 25 1 0 165.2 209 123 117 23 64 87 8 13 1 4 1 6.36

Heath
01-03-2007, 09:52 PM
$4 Mill for PINEIRO?

Maybe FCB is right - maybe there IS a market for Milton.

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 09:53 PM
Are you kidding? If The Reds signed Piniero, RZ would meltdown. Hell, we already have him in the form of Kyle Lohse (who is better IMO) and everyone is freaking out that we haven't cut him.

He is going to be in the pen. For $1.5 million more, I'd rather have someone who hits 90 on the gun over Stanton.

pedro
01-03-2007, 09:56 PM
He is going to be in the pen. For $1.5 million more, I'd rather have someone who hits 90 on the gun over Stanton.

speed doesn't matter if you can't pitch. I'd rather the Reds not spend 4 million to find out if a guy can even cut it in the pen.

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 10:23 PM
speed doesn't matter if you can't pitch. I'd rather the Reds not spend 4 million to find out if a guy can even cut it in the pen.

And do what with it, sign another 40 year old soft tosser? This team is going nowhere fast and I'd rather see then try and get someone with upside rather than signing pitchers who are one 88 MPH "heater" away from TJ surgery (i.e., Mercker, Guardado, etc).

Listen, I don't think Pineiro would be the smartest signing to pull off (that would have been Dotel) but I'm kind of getting desperate. I'd rather see someone who has a shot at turning into something good than watching Stanton throw dribblers to the plate for 2 years.

Pineiro could be a complete bust, or he could be Joe Nathan. We shall see.

pedro
01-03-2007, 10:38 PM
And do what with it, sign another 40 year old soft tosser? This team is going nowhere fast and I'd rather see then try and get someone with upside rather than signing pitchers who are one 88 MPH "heater" away from TJ surgery (i.e., Mercker, Guardado, etc).

Listen, I don't think Pineiro would be the smartest signing to pull off (that would have been Dotel) but I'm kind of getting desperate. I'd rather see someone who has a shot at turning into something good than watching Stanton throw dribblers to the plate for 2 years.

Pineiro could be a complete bust, or he could be Joe Nathan. We shall see.


Joe Nathan? That's funny. Now, I'm not enamored of Stanton either but signing a guy like Piniero to a 4 million contract with the hopes that he might not SUCK in the bullpen is the kind of risk that only teams like the Red Sox can make. As for Dotel, I'm not a big proponent of giving 5 million to a guy who has only pitched 24 innings the last 2 years. The fact that he ended up with KC tells me that no one else was willing to take that kind of risk.

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 11:17 PM
Joe Nathan? That's funny. Now, I'm not enamored of Stanton either but signing a guy like Piniero to a 4 million contract with the hopes that he might not SUCK in the bullpen is the kind of risk that only teams like the Red Sox can make. As for Dotel, I'm not a big proponent of giving 5 million to a guy who has only pitched 24 innings the last 2 years. The fact that he ended up with KC tells me that no one else was willing to take that kind of risk.

Why is Joe Nathan funny?

Nathan: age 24-25 as a starter: 109 walks in 183 2/3 innings.
Gagne: age 24-25 as a starter: ERAs of 5.15 and 4.75.
Mariano: age 25 as a starter: 19 games, 10 games started, 5.51 ERA.

Sometimes all it takes is a move to the bullpen. You can laugh at the names I just mentioned, but why couldn't it happen to Pineiro? It's a longshot, but I would have taken the risk over Stanton, Weathers, Cormier, etc. In two years these guys will be glue. If Pineiro pans out and Cincy is out of it, he would be a hot commodity at the deadline. If he bombs Cincy is still in 4th place, at best, with or without him. Good luck trying to deal the three old guys for more than Brendan Harris-type players when the deadline comes. Esspecially with those attractive 2 year deals.

http://www.balochvoice.com/Pictures/More_Photos/Three_old_men.jpg

reds44
01-03-2007, 11:24 PM
EASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2000 Sea 8 1 0 0 19.1 25 13 12 3 13 10 1 0 0 0 -- 5.59
2001 Sea 17 11 0 0 75.1 50 24 17 2 21 56 6 2 0 2 -- 2.03
2002 Sea 37 28 2 1 194.1 189 75 70 24 54 136 14 7 0 3 -- 3.24
2003 Sea 32 32 3 2 211.2 192 94 89 19 76 151 16 11 0 0 -- 3.78
2004 Sea 21 21 1 0 140.2 144 77 73 21 43 111 6 11 0 0 -- 4.67
2005 Sea 30 30 2 0 189.0 224 118 118 23 56 107 7 11 0 0 -- 5.62
2006 Sea 40 25 1 0 165.2 209 123 117 23 64 87 8 13 1 4 1 6.36



What happend to him? Roids?

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 11:24 PM
What happend to him? Roids?

Elbow.

pedro
01-03-2007, 11:34 PM
Joe Nathan's problem was walks, not that he gave up a ton of hits, but as he did get converted to a reliever after getting hurt I can kind of see your point.

Pineiro hasn't been hurt the last 2 years, he's just sucked. I don't see that turning around just by virtue moving to the bullpen.

Maybe I'm wrong though, a quick look at his split stats show he was pretty good pitches 1-30. But he still gave up a lot of walks pitches 1-30. We'll see.

Another thing you have to consider is a 4 million $, one year contract probably wouldn't have gotten him to Cincinnati.

edabbs44
01-03-2007, 11:59 PM
Joe Nathan's problem was walks, not that he gave up a ton of hits, but as he did get converted to a reliever after getting hurt I can kind of see your point.

Pineiro hasn't been hurt the last 2 years, he's just sucked. I don't see that turning around just by virtue moving to the bullpen.

Maybe I'm wrong though, a quick look at his split stats show he was pretty good pitches 1-30. But he still gave up a lot of walks pitches 1-30. We'll see.

Another thing you have to consider is a 4 million $, one year contract probably wouldn't have gotten him to Cincinnati.

Agreed...it's tough to compete with Boston. But this FO has to do something to make Cincy a little more enticing. It's a vicious cycle that may never end.

pedro
01-04-2007, 01:11 AM
Agreed...it's tough to compete with Boston. But this FO has to do something to make Cincy a little more enticing. It's a vicious cycle that may never end.

Unfortunately, the only thing that Reds can do to attract players is to

1) overpay or 2) start winning

If they overpay guys that are huge risks then the winning part isn't very likely.

I'm OK with overpaying for the right guys, but it seems that is everyone's strategy right now.

Nugget
01-04-2007, 01:15 AM
The other issue is the kind of leeway teams like the REDS can give a guy like Pinero. If Pinero sucks its likely that Boston will either hide him or work out a trade that will mean that he can still pitch in the majors while Boston picks up his salary. If he sucks with the REDS they will more than likely DFA him rather than trade him. Guys like Pinero still think they have a future in the major leagues so they are looking to see how they can continue even if Boston don't want him.

Ltlabner
01-04-2007, 08:31 AM
Are you kidding? If The Reds signed Piniero, RZ would meltdown. Hell, we already have him in the form of Kyle Lohse (who is better IMO) and everyone is freaking out that we haven't cut him.

No kidding. Shell out $4mil for a guy with a 6.36ERA who might, maybe, could possibly have some sort of upside? The moaning and complaining would be insuferable. And what is that upside? He "figures it out" in the bullpen and shaves his era down to 5.36? Wheee.

Trust me, I'm not exicited about Stanton, Weathers and Cromier. I'm especially not excited about the raft of 2 year deals. But that doesn't make it rational to go overspend to the tune of $4mil on a guy who's best case is an era in the 5's.


Listen, I don't think Pineiro would be the smartest signing to pull off (that would have been Dotel) but I'm kind of getting desperate. .

I don't think you are alone edabbs. But desperation is rarely, if ever, the breeding ground for inspired and wise player moves.

Edd Roush
01-04-2007, 09:47 AM
I don't think you are alone edabbs. But desperation is rarely, if ever, the breeding ground for inspired and wise player moves.

:felo: :kearns: :doh:

cincinnati chili
01-06-2007, 10:40 AM
I admit I don't get to see Piniero pitch all that much. But I watched him in an interleague game against the Rockies last year, and never recall a major league pitcher so blatantly visibly quitting on his team like he did on that day.

It's a nutty signing.

People accuse the saber crowd of throwing around too many numbers on this board, but to keep it really simple:

If a guy is significantly below average (which Piniero has been for 2 straight years), don't buy him for money that's significantly above the league's average salary. That's a start.

IslandRed
01-06-2007, 12:00 PM
Most pitchers will get a short-term bump in their numbers moving from the rotation to the bullpen. They don't have to pace themselves, hitters don't get a second look at them that day, etc. I saw where PECOTA factors that in -- take the same pitcher who is in a "swing" role and they figure his bullpen innings will come with about a run less ERA than his rotation innings. (If I'm remembering that right.)

If Pineiro still has a fastball he might not be bad out of the bullpen. But there's plenty of distance between "doesn't suck" and "Joe Nathan." The article I read linked from BP, Boston as much as admitted that if it doesn't work right out of the gate, oh well, we'll kick him to the curb and try someone else. That's not a luxury Cincinnati has.

Frankly, I think that after last year's bullpen meltdown and resulting follies, Krivsky is overpaying a little for perceived reliability and consistency. That means guys with less upside but lower probability of being useless. In the absence of high-level arms waiting to break in, I can live with it. I just hope he takes the opportunity to flip some of them for better arms if we're not in the race.

Falls City Beer
01-06-2007, 12:07 PM
In the absence of high-level arms waiting to break in, I can live with it. I just hope he takes the opportunity to flip some of them for better arms if we're not in the race.

This is fine, but it certainly can't be anything but an ancillary method of changing the team's composition. Because I think it's fair to say that, at least right now, teams are being stingy with the good prospects, so it's unlikely that these old arms are going to bring much back at the deadline. Again, I think this method of composing a team dances around the perimeter of what needs to be done to fix the team (cf. Jim Bowden). Medium risk, low reward, if you will.

westofyou
01-07-2007, 01:53 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=131



Scout’s Honor

by Will Carroll

Nick Cafardo’s latest piece explains why Joel Piniero is set to be the Red Sox next closer. Fine, they had something of a success (though I will argue it was accident rather than some Jamesian plan) with Jonathon Papelbon moving from starter to closer. Looking closer, you could see that Papelbon was being groomed to be a setup guy, not a closer. Piniero won’t get that same “soft start.” He’ll be watched and watched closely from Day One.

I haven’t checked the PECOTA on Piniero, but it’s not numbers or “anything you can download” that made Piniero a Sock. (Sox?) It was scouting, specifically Allard Baird’s scouting. Forget for a second that it’s Baird, a man most have connected with failure for his tenure as the Royals GM. Just remember that it’s a scout. Remember that he saw something that no one else is on record as having seen. That the Mariners let Piniero very literally walk away for nothing after spending years hoping he’d be their next ace. That 28 other teams had the same shot at signing him.

This comes down to someone’s observations, trained as they are, made over a short series of time, leaping to the conclusion, right or not, that Piniero can do a job he’s never done. Maybe he is. Are the things Baird lists as traits quantifiable or at least repeatable? Can Baird find other closers? If so, where was this skill in Kansas City, or in his previous stops along his baseball career? Is there any scout out there who’s known for having the specialty of spotting closers? Relievers?

Some are going to call this typical egghead stathead math geek sabermetric defend Bill James group think Prospectus kool aid shots at the scouting community. It’s not. If anything, I want to know how he did it. I want to scout the scouts. Most of all, I want the scouts themselves to have the same type of accountability as we, the writers, do. When I said Mark Prior was hurt, I stood by it. When I said C.C. Sabathia would break down, I stood by it. I’ve been right a lot and wrong a lot, but I’ve been both clear about how I reached the conclusion and in eating my serving of crow when I was wrong.

Will Baird, or any scout, or any GM, or anyone, stand up and do the same, right or wrong? It’s time we started collecting the data to judge just who are the best scouts and how they do what they do. The work they do is amazing, and much more than the guesswork and gut that they’re often portrayed as using. Knowing who is the best will help us learn how to do that job better and better scouting will mean better baseball.