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RedsManRick
01-05-2007, 06:36 PM
Can anybody point me towards a table of given run values for certain at bat events? I know the run value is context dependent, so I'm not sure if this would take the form of an average or by situation.

There's yet more discussion going on about strikeouts in another thread, and the relative value of strikeouts vs. non-strikeout outs is being tossed about with no real backing. How much better is it really to make an out in the field (including "should be" outs -- errors) vs. striking out.

It's hard to really judge the value gained by cutting strikeouts versus the value potentially lost in lower power production without some numbers.

Cyclone792
01-05-2007, 07:56 PM
Can anybody point me towards a table of given run values for certain at bat events? I know the run value is context dependent, so I'm not sure if this would take the form of an average or by situation.

There's yet more discussion going on about strikeouts in another thread, and the relative value of strikeouts vs. non-strikeout outs is being tossed about with no real backing. How much better is it really to make an out in the field (including "should be" outs -- errors) vs. striking out.

It's hard to really judge the value gained by cutting strikeouts versus the value potentially lost in lower power production without some numbers.

This is for BaseRuns. I'm not the biggest fan of BaseRuns, but the run values should be very similar and should provide the answer you're looking for:

http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html

According to BR, a strikeout is worth -0.111 runs while a regular out is worth -0.098 runs. That's a difference of 0.013 runs.

RedsManRick
01-05-2007, 08:05 PM
Thanks Cyclone. Based on BaseRuns, if Dunn could make 100 of his K's in to other kinds of outs, he'd generate an entire run. Wow. I think we can say that the real value of cutting down the Ks would be additional hits results from balls in play and the "productive out" portion of the argument needs to die.

Of course, it's not possible for Dunn to only change his swing choices in AB's that would have otherwise resulted in a K, so we have to measure that gain against the effect on ABs that end in other types of outs, hits, and walks as well. Of course, it's that portion of the discussion that people don't want to touch.

vaticanplum
01-05-2007, 08:36 PM
http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html

:confused: