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View Full Version : What happens if the Reds get a lot worse in 2007?



Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 10:54 AM
Let's say the Reds end the season 72-90, with few injuries to link to the record's cause. What happens? Give me a list of 5 things that occur as a result of that record.

Razor Shines
01-07-2007, 10:59 AM
Whatever the same five things are that happen every year. I'm sorry but do you think that's really going to shock anybody into any drastic action?

Highlifeman21
01-07-2007, 11:01 AM
1. Jerry Narron finds himself unemployed
2. Wayne Krivsky finds himself unemployed
3. Griffey retires
4. Bronson Arroyo finds himself playing for a different team
5. Adam Dunn finds himself playing for a different team

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 11:09 AM
Whatever the same five things are that happen every year. I'm sorry but do you think that's really going to shock anybody into any drastic action?

While I understand your cynicism, I think something might come as a result of sliding that severely from the 80 win mark.

westofyou
01-07-2007, 11:22 AM
There's a whole season of baseball that will shift the five items on that list. It's to malleable to even touch IMO.

But what does happen if the Reds tank? Which is a distinct possibility. A good example of two steps forward and two steps back is a long tradition in Reds history, one that has it reasons, like player squabbles (1921) bad managing and bad approach (1937), crappy GM (1982) hitting collapse (1958) It's like the roulette of being a loser, so many choices, so many, many choices.



1919 1st 96 44 .686 +9 WORLD CHAMPIONS
1920 3rd 82 71 .536 10.5
1921 6th 70 83 .458 24
1922 2nd 86 68 .558 7
1923 2nd 91 63 .591 4.5

1934 8th 52 99 .344 42
1935 6th 68 85 .444 31.5
1936 5th 74 80 .481 18
1937 8th 56 98 .364 40
1938 4th 82 68 .547 6
1939 1st 97 57 .630 +4.5 NL CHAMPIONS
1940 1st 100 53 .654 +12 WORLD CHAMPIONS

1955 5th 75 79 .487 23.5
1956 3rd 91 63 .591 2
1957 4th 80 74 .519 15
1958 4th 76 78 .494 16
1959 T5th 74 80 .481 13
1960 6th 67 87 .435 28
1961 1st 93 61 .604 +4 NL CHAMPIONS

1979 1st 90 71 .559 +1.5 NL WEST CHAMPIONS
1980 3rd 89 73 .549 3.5
1981 2nd 35 21 .625 0.5
1981 2nd 31 21 .596 1.5
1982 6th 61 101 .377 28
1983 6th 74 88 .457 17

mth123
01-07-2007, 11:25 AM
I think we'll hear that there are better days ahead. "Now we have Bailey and Votto in place of some of the stop gaps." Which is true but not enough change IMO.

Predicting personnel changes will be difficult at this point because when (notice I didn't say if) that happens there will surely be some desperation moves made during the year or some decent talent may end up gone for less in return to simply save cash.

The team that ends 2007 with 90 losses is probably quite different than the one we see now.

If I had to predict, I'd guess BCast goes all Steinbrenner on us and fires a bunch of people and takes on too big a role himself personally.

But I've become pretty negative with this off-season, so there may be some positives that I just can't see right now.

IslandRed
01-07-2007, 11:37 AM
I won't predict anyone to lose his job but I expect it will accelerate the makeover process if we're not feigning contention. Note I said makeover and not slash-and-burn rebuild; Castellini may accept the obvious and allow Krivsky to be a deadline seller (which would do us a lot of good IMO) but I don't think he's interested in punting future years. So whatever the 2008 core is -- and I'm not saying everyone under contract for 2008 qualifies -- I wouldn't expect that to be dealt away.

Always Red
01-07-2007, 11:49 AM
IMO, nothing will happen if the Reds backslide to 72-90, because it appears, by the inactivity thus far in the offseason, that the Reds are not making a big push to win in 2007.

I realize that you always try to win, but I think Krivsky's plan is to do it while rebuilding the team, and the entire farm system, to his liking. Maybe in retrospect, being in contention all year in 2006 only slowed down Kriv's plan to remake this team?

I think if the Reds are well out of it by the ASB, some even bigger moves will be made to bring in some young talent. For example, if the Reds are tanking at the trading deadline and Arroyo still pitching well, I'd trade him to a contender for some excellent return, since it's doubtful he will be here past 2008.

KronoRed
01-07-2007, 12:12 PM
Same ole same ole will happen.

dougdirt
01-07-2007, 12:29 PM
1. We get a top 5 draft pick in 2008.
2. We get a new GM....again.
3. We see Adam Dunn and Bronson Arroyo traded.

KoryMac5
01-07-2007, 01:18 PM
1. Griffey traded
2. Arroyo traded
3. Weathers or Stanton traded
4. Narron fired
5. Krivs fired

toledodan
01-07-2007, 01:27 PM
the sad thing is the reds more than likely will be worse. the question is how bad. i hope i'm so wrong though. at worse i would almost take the same results as last season if it means we have brought bailey and votto up.

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 01:27 PM
I kind of think that if things go horrifically for the reds early on, Narron could be fired before the end of the season.

Ltlabner
01-07-2007, 01:29 PM
Depends on the timing of the collapse.

1. Lots of the middle-of-the road guys (Weathers, Stanton's) traded for whatever they can get
2. Jr gone
3. The number of "I told you so" posts will be unbearable
4. Some of the guys in AAA who wouldn't normally get a chance would see some time at GABP.
5. Narron gone.
6. We'd hear a lot more from BCast explaining what is going on behind the sceens. More in-house "promotion" if you will.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 01:33 PM
3. The number of "I told you so" posts will be unbearable
.

I doubt it. I think the whole board is sufficiently cynical to avoid that kind of behavior.

Blimpie
01-07-2007, 01:36 PM
1. Jerry Narron finds himself unemployed
2. Wayne Krivsky finds himself unemployed
3. Griffey retires
4. Bronson Arroyo finds himself playing for a different team
5. Adam Dunn finds himself playing for a different team
6. FCB's post count approaches Krono-esque proportions? ;)

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 01:41 PM
I'm really surprised that many folks feel that Krivsky would get the ax. Very surprised.

Ltlabner
01-07-2007, 01:43 PM
I'm really surprised that many folks feel that Krivsky would get the ax. Very surprised.

I don't think he would get the ax that quick. If 2008 AND 2009 are disasters that's a different story, but I would be suprised to see BCast being so rash as to send Krvisky packing that quick.

reds44
01-07-2007, 01:44 PM
I think Narron would go at least a year before Krvisky would.

RedsManRick
01-07-2007, 01:46 PM
I tried to give you a list of 5 FCB, but I couldn't do it. I don't think WK will be fired and I don't think there will be any monumental shifts.

I think it will make plain the point that 2006 was a fluke of luck and NL central crappiness -- it was the Royals 2003. This is an organization that cannot buy quick success and is not yet built for long term viability. A horrible 2007 will simply pull the curtain back even further on that first point and press the case for legitimately looking long term.

Jim Bowden had a win now mindset on a rebuild budget. Dan O'Brien had the right idea but failed at executing and did not understand the way to handle the major league team during a rebuild. You can't pretend like you aren't rebuilding when you are, ask Allan Baird - it's shooting yourself in the foot. WK talks a good game, but might get pinched by trying to have his cake and eat it too (see, The Trade). This is an organization that, if the right BOLD moves are taken, could be a legitimate, sustainable, winner in 2008 and beyond. I hope that a crappy 2007 could provide the necessary cover for those moves to be made - if it's not too late.

I fear that we're going to be so worried about saving face in the present (and even then failing to do so), that we ironically prevent ourselves from being truly successful in the future. While I don't want the Reds to suck in 2007, I hope that we aren't again fooled by early, luck-based, success which pushes WK in to making another ill-fated run at the expense of the future.

deltachi8
01-07-2007, 01:54 PM
1) Somehow, it will be blamed on Adam Dunn and strikeouts
2-5) See above.

redsfanmia
01-07-2007, 02:05 PM
Cast slashes payroll when attendance drops and then talks again about being a big player in off season.

BoydsOfSummer
01-07-2007, 02:35 PM
1) Somehow, it will be blamed on Adam Dunn and strikeouts
2-5) See above.

:laugh:

Krusty
01-07-2007, 02:42 PM
I think the opposite will happen. Homer Bailey will join this club by Memorial Day to give the Reds a solid three in the rotation (Arroyo, Harang, Bailey). The Reds will get by with with Stanton/Weathers as the closer till the Allstar break.....which Krivsky will make a move to acquire a veteran closer. The defense will be much better with Freel/Denorifa in center, Gonzalez at shortstop and improvement in Encarncion's fielding.

I honestly think this club can win 90 games if there are no major injuries.

Chip R
01-07-2007, 03:13 PM
I honestly think this club can win 90 games if there are no major injuries.


Yeah, if someone doesn't break a hip.

Caveat Emperor
01-07-2007, 03:47 PM
I think this team is already looking to 2008 anyway -- notably the arrival of Joey Votto and Homer Bailey as full-time players -- so I don't expect anyone to hit the panic button this year.

As it stands, this team is not being built to compete in 2007. A few moves in the future, prior to spring training, might change that, but as of this instant, I can't imagine anyone with a baseball mind expects anything other than a mild disaster from the Reds this year.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 03:59 PM
I think this team is already looking to 2008 anyway -- notably the arrival of Joey Votto and Homer Bailey as full-time players -- so I don't expect anyone to hit the panic button this year.

As it stands, this team is not being built to compete in 2007. A few moves in the future, prior to spring training, might change that, but as of this instant, I can't imagine anyone with a baseball mind expects anything other than a mild disaster from the Reds this year.

I agree. I believe they've punted 2007 entirely, and possibly 2008. I don't think Milton's coming off the books or the arrival (and possible success) of Votto and Bailey is enough to get this team into position for contention in 2008. Milton's salary slot, in the best case, will be filled with Harang's money. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Arroyo gone in the offseason next year.

I think we can assume a couple of things:

1. This team is not going to see a jump in payroll in the next year (maybe two).

2. This team is rebuilding, not contending (or contending only by accident, attrition in the division, not design), for the next several years.

Spring~Fields
01-07-2007, 04:05 PM
Let's say the Reds end the season 72-90, with few injuries to link to the record's cause. What happens? Give me a list of 5 things that occur as a result of that record.

The optimistic will make excuses sprinkled with quipy little remarks in an attempt to disarm and discount the realist.

I think that there will be a lot of Lou fans in the closet this year, and next year they will quietly set back and snicker at the nay sayers.

I think most of us can see Krivsky moving the big contracts coming down the road including Dunn.

Aronchis
01-07-2007, 04:27 PM
Yeah, the Reds look to be punting 2007-8 anyway. I don't see much of a shakeup as Krivsky looks to build up the internals. Narron may get axed but the manager is so overrated.

Probably just trade or release the players they don't want and develope the ones they do.

WMR
01-07-2007, 04:50 PM
I think Narron could easily be gone by the ASB, but I think Krivsky will be here till next season regardless.

Highlifeman21
01-07-2007, 05:24 PM
I think Narron could easily be gone by the ASB, but I think Krivsky will be here till next season regardless.

Don't tease me.

Cyclone792
01-07-2007, 05:53 PM
1) Adam Dunn has a .900+ OPS, and some fans complain about his batting average, his batting average w/RISP, his strikeouts, and his salary.
2) Edwin Encarnacion has an .850+ OPS, and some fans complain that he isn't a dependable middle of the order bat.
3) Various Reds broadcasters, including Marty, Thom, and George Grande credit Manos de oro with winning over 10 games with his late-inning defense.
4) Jerry Narron is fired. At the press conference announcing the hiring of new Manager A, Wayne and Bob sit there smiling as new Manager A talks about how the team's future success depends on veteran leadership, players knowing how to win, and players playing the game the right way.
5) Banana phone callers accuse the Reds of being lousy because they don't have Pete Rose on their team.

:evil:

TC81190
01-07-2007, 10:31 PM
1. Adam Dunn will still have been here.
2. Narron is still here.
3. Krivsky is still here.
4. Moeller will start more than 20 games.
5. Pedro Astacio will be brung in and start more than once.

M2
01-07-2007, 11:42 PM
1. Harang and or Arroyo get injured
2. Alex Gonzalez, #2 hitter
3. Hatteberg, Conine, Weathers, Cormier and Stanton pull an AARP
4. Ken Griffey Jr. continues to patrol CF without a lark
5. Eric Milton gets 30+ starts

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 12:29 AM
1. The Reds will decide that platoon splits at 1B, still work.
2. Jerry Narron will be fired.
3. The Reds will try to further reduce K's, at the expense of the offense.
4. Reds Nation will be told the following. We're sorry, but Griffey moving to a corner OF position, Dunn batting third in the order, and Edwin Encarnation at 3B; those experiments just didn't work as planned.
5. Beats me. I'm all "overally buzzed" in 2007.

WVRedsFan
01-08-2007, 01:27 AM
I think this team is already looking to 2008 anyway -- notably the arrival of Joey Votto and Homer Bailey as full-time players -- so I don't expect anyone to hit the panic button this year.

As it stands, this team is not being built to compete in 2007. A few moves in the future, prior to spring training, might change that, but as of this instant, I can't imagine anyone with a baseball mind expects anything other than a mild disaster from the Reds this year.

OK. I can live with that, but why in the name of all that's holy did Robert F. Castillini stand up in front of God and the rest of us and say we were going to compete immediately? Why? Because he's such a good businessman that lying comes naturally?

And as for Votto and Bailey, do not expect them to be our saviors. Kids sometimes project better than they'll actually be (Brandon Claussen says "Hi")

WVRedsFan
01-08-2007, 01:34 AM
I think Narron could easily be gone by the ASB, but I think Krivsky will be here till next season regardless.

Nah, it'll be the same old story, as in..."well, he didn't have anything to work with so..."

I'm guessing pay raise and extension for Jerry. Same for Krivsky.

At my funeral, they'll be saying, "he always rooted for the Cincinnati Reds. He's an idiot."

Jpup
01-08-2007, 02:54 AM
nothing.

WMR
01-08-2007, 02:57 AM
Nah, it'll be the same old story, as in..."well, he didn't have anything to work with so..."

I'm guessing pay raise and extension for Jerry. Same for Krivsky.

At my funeral, they'll be saying, "he always rooted for the Cincinnati Reds. He's an idiot."

Was Narron's contract extension a single year with a club option for a 2nd?

I wonder if maybe Krivsky is secretly right there with us in terms of how he views this current incantation of the Reds and plans on using Narron's eventual slide with this inferior, aging squad as a "stepping stone" to implementing the youth infusion he is planning from the minor leagues. I'd be cool with that.

Caveat Emperor
01-08-2007, 07:57 AM
OK. I can live with that, but why in the name of all that's holy did Robert F. Castillini stand up in front of God and the rest of us and say we were going to compete immediately? Why? Because he's such a good businessman that lying comes naturally?

At the time, it wasn't an outlandish suggestion. Then, this offseason, the market went nutty and teams spent like sailors with one day in port. When Jeff Weaver is demanding $40 million for a four year deal, it severely impacts the Reds ability to compete.

Not only the Reds, but look at Casty's former squad -- the Cardinals have been priced out of the market for a lot of top talent as well. They're not a cheap franchise, they just have a budget the same as the Reds do. They, like the Reds, are probably going to wait the spending spree out this year and (hopefully) cash in when the market corrects itself.


And as for Votto and Bailey, do not expect them to be our saviors. Kids sometimes project better than they'll actually be (Brandon Claussen says "Hi")

Brandon Claussen's arm injury that robbed him of all his stuff says "right back 'atcha."

Nobody expects Votto and Bailey to be saivors -- but when you combine Votto, Bailey, and Encarnacion with Harang and Arroyo in his walk year (pitching for a contract), it should form a nice nucleus to rally around in '08.

GAC
01-08-2007, 08:35 AM
I doubt Krivsky loses his job. And he shouldn't IMO. Gotta give a GM more time then that if the owner believes he has a plan. Especially when I look at the situation (mess) they inherited AND if injuries are a contributing factor.

registerthis
01-08-2007, 08:50 AM
I agree. I believe they've punted 2007 entirely, and possibly 2008.

They've punted the entire decade.

redsmetz
01-08-2007, 08:51 AM
Was Narron's contract extension a single year with a club option for a 2nd?

I wonder if maybe Krivsky is secretly right there with us in terms of how he views this current incantation of the Reds and plans on using Narron's eventual slide with this inferior, aging squad as a "stepping stone" to implementing the youth infusion he is planning from the minor leagues. I'd be cool with that.

Why must we always assume such Machiavellian undercurrents in all that the Reds do. Maybe Wayne and Bob are genuine in their admiration of Jerry Narron.

I continue to say, had the Internet existed in the fashion it is now during Joe Torre's early tenure as a manager with the Mets, Braves or Cardinals, folks would be herniating over what a lousy manager he is. The article on Torre at Wikipedia has this entry in the part about him coming to the Yankees: Though he had never played or managed in the American League, and the New York City press greeted him with headlines such as "Clueless Joe"

Our "instant society" demands results now whereas history has a way of taking some time to unfold.

paintmered
01-08-2007, 08:55 AM
1) Adam Dunn has a .900+ OPS, and some fans complain about his batting average, his batting average w/RISP, his strikeouts, and his salary.
2) Edwin Encarnacion has an .850+ OPS, and some fans complain that he isn't a dependable middle of the order bat.
3) Various Reds broadcasters, including Marty, Thom, and George Grande credit Manos de oro with winning over 10 games with his late-inning defense.
4) Jerry Narron is fired. At the press conference announcing the hiring of new Manager A, Wayne and Bob sit there smiling as new Manager A talks about how the team's future success depends on veteran leadership, players knowing how to win, and players playing the game the right way.
5) Banana phone callers accuse the Reds of being lousy because they don't have Pete Rose on their team.

:evil:

Sadly, I can see each of those things happening.

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 02:22 PM
Was Narron's contract extension a single year with a club option for a 2nd?
No. His first contract was for one year, with a mutual option. Signed for 2006 and the option was for 2007. The extension picked up the 2007 option and included another year, 2008. He's now signed through the 2008 season.

WMR
01-08-2007, 04:39 PM
Maybe Wayne and Bob are genuine in their admiration of Jerry Narron.

Then we're in worse shape than I thought.

Matt700wlw
01-08-2007, 04:47 PM
unhappy fans!

Rojo
01-10-2007, 09:30 PM
Raise ticket prices.