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View Full Version : What happens if the Reds get a lot better in 2007?



reds44
01-07-2007, 02:27 PM
Lets say 90-72 and a playoff berth. Give me a list of 5 things that will happen.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 02:31 PM
Lets say 90-72 and a playoff berth. Give me a list of 5 things that will happen.

1. Griffey or Milton will have played well enough to be traded.
2. Bailey will have led the team in Ks, ERA, and OPSA.
3. Statues of Mary will start crying.

Ltlabner
01-07-2007, 02:36 PM
1. Means Loshe REALLY stepped up and we'll be arguing over extending his contract

2. Means Milton did better than raw suckage. There will be lengthy threads about "should we offer a new contract to Milton?". Ultimatley, he'll be traded for a few prospects and we'll all breath a sigh of reliefe.

3. Means Bray and Majic did well and their will be even MORE threads about the trade.

4. Further contract extentions for Narron will be on the table.

5. Several memember's of RZ head's will expode.

6. Connie and Hatte had to play decent and it will be time for Votto to put up or shut up to push them out the door.

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 02:37 PM
I will drink 18 bottles of champagne and throw a dance party.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 02:39 PM
I will drink 18 bottles of champagne and throw a dance party.

In that order?

KronoRed
01-07-2007, 02:41 PM
vaticanplum will be taken to the emergency room with alcohol poisoning ;)

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 02:51 PM
In that order?

My first instinct would be the champagne, and 18 bottles of it would necessitate a dance party. So yes. And yes Krono, it might be an emergency room dance party. But those are always fun.

deltachi8
01-07-2007, 02:58 PM
1) I will dance a jig
2) There is a Santa Clause
3) Adam Dunn will be blamed for the team not winning 95 games
4) More scrappiness in 08
5) Redszone will crash in late September

Krusty
01-07-2007, 03:43 PM
Krivsky will be named Executive of the Year.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 03:48 PM
Krivsky will be named Executive of the Year.

If Wayne Krivsky gets this rag-tag bunch of gimps, fossils, and underachievers to 90 wins, he should be ensconced in Cooperstown. Immediately.

Spring~Fields
01-07-2007, 05:16 PM
I will have died and gone to heaven and pulled all the right strings from above, and you will be able to thank me. :)

Highlifeman21
01-07-2007, 05:48 PM
Lets say 90-72 and a playoff berth. Give me a list of 5 things that will happen.

1. Hell will freeze over if we go 90-72 and make the playoffs.
2. The Cardinals, Astros, Brewers and Cubs must have suffered horrific team encompassing injuries.
3. Narron gets an extension that will later be considered Milton-esque
4. GABP might actually start to sell out on a regular basis
5. Rosie Red wins the Mr. Red Race on a regular basis as well.

The_jbh
01-07-2007, 06:17 PM
1) Homer Bailey wins 15 games
2) Harang and Arroyo pitch the same as 06 with Arroyo not fizzling out in august
3) Milton and Loshe win 15 to 20 games between the 2 or Lizzard I guess
4) Votto smashes on the scene with a legitimate 5 hitter season
5) Griffey goes .280 .350 35 HRs 100+ RBIs


so hell freezes over

Cyclone792
01-07-2007, 06:54 PM
1) Adam Dunn has a 1.000+ OPS, and some fans complain about his batting average, his batting average w/RISP, his strikeouts, and his salary.
2) Edwin Encarnacion has an .925+ OPS, but some fans want to talk about how he should be moved to first base because of his 15 errors during the season.
3) Various Reds broadcasters, including Marty, Thom, and George Grande credit Manos de oro with winning over 10 games with his late-inning defense.
4) Jerry Narron's contract is extended, and Wayne, Bob, and Jerry all talk about how the team's success was entirely dependent on veteran leadership, players knowing how to win, and players playing the game the right way.
5) Banana phone callers say they aren't impressed with the team's performance because Pete Rose isn't on the team.

:evil:

Unassisted
01-07-2007, 08:35 PM
"A little better" scares me more than "a lot better." "A little better" is what led to the lopsided May trade that was supposed to make the Reds "a lot better."

"A lot better," like a 10-game lead in the division on August 15, probably leads to premature contract renewals for Krivsky and Narron.

Hopefully, it leads to increased attendance. More likely, it leads to more gnashing of teeth and discounted weekday tickets.

edabbs44
01-07-2007, 09:19 PM
1) http://mariah.stonemarche.org/favlinks/pigs_fly.jpg

2) http://www.freeenergynews.com/newstuff/images/hell_freeze_300.jpg

3) http://www.armageddonbooks.com/four.jpg

4) http://100stress.blogs.sapo.pt/arquivo/walk%20on%20water.JPG

5) http://www.frankwu.com/cubscover.jpg

Ltlabner
01-07-2007, 09:30 PM
I guess it's telling that the "what if the reds get better" thread only gets 4 serrious answers out of 16 replies. While the "what if they suck" thread gets 32 mostly serrious answers with thoughtfull analysis of what will transpire.

Makes pretty clear the "temprature" of RZ towards the Reds in 2007. BTW - this isn't a dig at "pessimism" it's more a comment that the board as a whole is not overally buzzed for 2007.

Falls City Beer
01-07-2007, 09:35 PM
I guess it's telling that the "what if the reds get better" thread only gets 4 serrious answers out of 16 replies. While the "what if they suck" thread gets 32 mostly serrious answers with thoughtfull analysis of what will transpire.

Makes pretty clear the "temprature" of RZ towards the Reds in 2007.

Well, when you throw a party for 100 with one 2 liter of Big K, no cups, and three paper plates, you're going to get some surly guests.

Ltlabner
01-07-2007, 09:40 PM
Well, when you throw a party for 100 with one 2 liter of Big K, no cups, and three paper plates, you're going to get some surly guests.

Oh, I understand, and I wasn't saying "don't be negative".

I added the following to my original post to clarify, "BTW - this isn't a dig at "pessimism" it's more a comment that the board as a whole is not overally buzzed for 2007"

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 09:51 PM
I guess it's telling that the "what if the reds get better" thread only gets 4 serrious answers out of 16 replies.

I want to make it clear that my response, while devoid of thoughtful baseball analysis, is perfectly serious. 18 is not an arbitrary number. My family put away two bottles of champagne in 1990 and has been adding a bottle a year ever since in preparation for this very event. And they are ALL MINE, baby.

Betterread
01-07-2007, 10:06 PM
I want to make it clear that my response, while devoid of thoughtful baseball analysis, is perfectly serious. 18 is not an arbitrary number. My family put away two bottles of champagne in 1990 and has been adding a bottle a year ever since in preparation for this very event. And they are ALL MINE, baby.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but most champagne should drunk immediately (within 2-3 years) and even vintage or cuvee champagnes typically don't keep their flavor longer than 15 years. The good news is you have a strong justification to enjoy your largesse.

Highlifeman21
01-07-2007, 10:14 PM
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but most champagne should drunk immediately (within 2-3 years) and even vintage or cuvee champagnes typically don't keep their flavor longer than 15 years. The good news is you have a strong justification to enjoy your largesse.

1990 and 1996 vintages care to differ with you.

They are some of the best ever.

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 10:14 PM
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but most champagne should drunk immediately (within 2-3 years) and even vintage or cuvee champagnes typically don't keep their flavor longer than 15 years. The good news is you have a strong justification to enjoy your largesse.

Aw crap. This is what happens when rednecks try to celebrate.

Maybe I will just start with the more recent ones and won't notice anything taste-wise after a few bottles. It is decent champagne, i think...but I guess the reds haven't helped matters by holding out for so long.

vaticanplum
01-07-2007, 10:23 PM
Ok, I just called my mom to chew her out and ended up on the receiving end. She said I was a moron not to know that about champagne ("anything bubbly like that doesn't keep, what's the matter with you?" What the hell do I know, mom, I drink scotch out of Dixie cups. I'm not exactly a classy drinker.)

So correction: my family has, according to my mother, THREE or FOUR bottles of champagne put away to celebrate. The rest is red wine. Apparently they were a little optimistic those first couple years after the Reds' win, then gave up and switched to wine so it would keep.

I would like to apologize on my family's behalf for portraying them as ignorant in the ways of champagne storage. This is not the case. Except for me.

Betterread
01-07-2007, 11:56 PM
Ok, I just called my mom to chew her out and ended up on the receiving end. She said I was a moron not to know that about champagne ("anything bubbly like that doesn't keep, what's the matter with you?" What the hell do I know, mom, I drink scotch out of Dixie cups. I'm not exactly a classy drinker.)

So correction: my family has, according to my mother, THREE or FOUR bottles of champagne put away to celebrate. The rest is red wine. Apparently they were a little optimistic those first couple years after the Reds' win, then gave up and switched to wine so it would keep.

I would like to apologize on my family's behalf for portraying them as ignorant in the ways of champagne storage. This is not the case. Except for me.

As you see, your mother is looking out for your best interests. You are fortunate to have such a considerate family, with good taste.

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 12:30 AM
Lets say 90-72 and a playoff berth. Give me a list of 5 things that will happen.

I assume you mean what will happen after, not what will happen to get the Reds to a 90-72 record...

1. I'll fall over dead, but it will be with a smile on my face.
2. The Reds will forever believe in platoon splits at 1B.
3. The Reds will carry three catchers in 2008.
4. The Reds will lose the value of a high draft pick in 2008, and we'll all find out if they can mine talent from the lower rounds.
5. Someone will mention the Reds Pythag as a reason they shouldn't have won 90 games in the first place.

M2
01-08-2007, 12:39 AM
1. Monster year from Kyle Lohse
2. MVP-type year from Adam Dunn
3. Chris Denorfia has taken over CF and played well
4. Someone has become a quality closer
5. Javy Valentin has an Ed Taubensee 1999 type of season

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 12:42 AM
I would like to apologize on my family's behalf for portraying them as ignorant in the ways of champagne storage. This is not the case. Except for me.
You should call your Mom and apologize. I bet she's still crying and wondering where she went so wrong. :) But seriously, if the Reds win 90 games and make the playoffs, can I come and celebrate with your family? People who store alcholic beverages are a-ok with with me. :laugh:

vaticanplum
01-08-2007, 12:58 AM
You should call your Mom and apologize. I bet she's still crying and wondering where she went so wrong. :) But seriously, if the Reds win 90 games and make the playoffs, can I come and celebrate with your family? People who store alcholic beverages are a-ok with with me. :laugh:

I'm sure my mother was wondering that long before she was aware of my champagne misinformation ;) Regards your question, once again, my first post was serious. I'll be throwing a dance party, kids. It might be, I dunno, in that dirt pit by the ballpark or something, but it'll happen.


4. The Reds will lose the value of a high draft pick in 2008, and we'll all find out if they can mine talent from the lower rounds.

this is a good point, by the way. I'm very curious as to how Wayne's puported gift for scouting will pan out, and as opposed to the major league club, that really is something that is going to take several years to see.

Cyclone792
01-08-2007, 01:42 AM
I guess it's telling that the "what if the reds get better" thread only gets 4 serrious answers out of 16 replies. While the "what if they suck" thread gets 32 mostly serrious answers with thoughtfull analysis of what will transpire.

Makes pretty clear the "temprature" of RZ towards the Reds in 2007. BTW - this isn't a dig at "pessimism" it's more a comment that the board as a whole is not overally buzzed for 2007.

Right now, with their current roster and likely roster management, my realistic 2007 prediction for the Reds is 75-87.

Is that something to get excited about? Not really. It can be something to get excited about if I was confident that I had something to look forward to, but I'm not really sure if the team is going to make the required moves to look forward to 2008 and beyond. If I was confident there was something to look forward to in 2008, then I'd look at the bumps in the road for 2007 as a means of moving forward and setting it up for 2008.

Think of it like this ... if the Reds acquired the right players and made the proper roster management decisions with their current players (and new players), then I can easily see this team winning 95 games and becoming a legitimate World Series threat in 2008.

I do want to be clear about one thing, which is what I mean by acquiring the right players doesn't imply a complete roster explosion. The team really is only about four key players away plus proper roster management from being the team that we all hope it can be in 2008. From one angle, that seems like quite a bit. From another angle, it seems like not much at all.

Who are those four players?

1) An above average starting pitcher to insert into the #3 rotation slot (or #4 depending on your view of Homer Bailey at the MLB level in 2008). This guy doesn't have to be a star arm, just above average. Last season, the NL average ERA for starting pitchers was 4.65. If the Reds had a guy who could post a 4.25 ERA in that slot, that works.

2) A right fielder who can post an .850+ OPS. Again, not a star expected to put up a .950 OPS and make the all-star team, just a solid, above average right fielder that plays every day who can make a decent amount of noise with the bat. Unfortunately, and as much as it pains me to say it, a late 30s Ken Griffey, Jr. isn't that guy. At this point, the team is better off if they're able to move him. What is also unfortunate is that Austin Kearns may very well have been this bat, but he's gone now.

3) Two above average to good relief pitchers, specifically above average to good relievers who specialize in missing bats. The Reds are in dire need of relievers who can strike batters out, and I'd like for there to be at least two of them to call on in the bullpen.

Now, simply acquiring those players won't be enough; Narron, or whoever the manager is, has to make the right player decision with the roster at hand. What does some of that entail?

1) Get Chris Denorfia in center field, and get him in center field right now. He should be the opening day center fielder in 2007, he should be a full-time regular major leaguer in 2007, and he'd be a solid piece for a 2008 championship run ballclub. I've said this before, and I'll say it again; the Cincinnati Reds have the players available to field the best up-the-middle defense in all of baseball. Now it's up to the manager to actually make sure they're all on the field and to make that best up-the-middle defense in baseball a reality.

2) If Joey Votto hits well in AAA during the early parts of 2007, get him up to the big leagues in the second half of this upcoming season. But don't just promote him; give him regular starts at first base. I don't expect Joey Votto to come up and suddenly be a giant, middle of the order hitter. He's a very good prospect, but it will take some time for him to get acclimated to major league pitching.

However, by 2008 I do think he'll be the best capable first baseman in this organization at the major league level (unless a player is brought in from outside the organization), and I think he can hit well enough in 2008 to not be a complete liability while he continues to develop. I expect Votto to be promoted at some point in 2007. It may be June, July, August, September or whenever, I don't know, but I expect it at some point. And when he's promoted, he needs to play every day and get regular reps at the major league level. I'd rather see him playing every day in Louisville than sitting on the bench here in Cincinnati, so if he's up here, he needs to play. This may require Narron benching his veterans, and it may be difficult, but handling Votto during 2007 in the best possible way will help the team in 2008.

3) If Homer Bailey pitches well in AAA during the early parts of 2007, get him up to the big leagues during the second half of the season. Coddle him, protect his arm, limit his innings ... but give him a taste of major league hitting. Much of the same above for Votto applies also to Bailey. Handle Homer in the best possible manner in 2007 while giving him a nice taste of major league hitters, and I think he'll be well-suited for the 2008 every day rotation.

Add it up at the end, and things don't look so bad.

Offensively, the team would have Dunn, Encarnacion, and a solid right field bat leading the charge. Surrounding them would be a developing Votto, a solid on-base percentage in Denorfia, and speed with doubles power in Phillips. Gonzalez is a hole and should be buried at the bottom of the lineup. I'm not sure what to expect out of David Ross, but if catcher becomes a liability, it should be fixed. If Ross hits adequately, he'll be fine.

On the mound, the team would have Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, an above average starting pitcher, and a guy in the final spot who hopefully would be a bit better than a Dave Williams type batting tee. Add two solid relievers in the bullpen who specialize in missing bats alongside Coffey and Bray, and the bullpen core wouldn't be bad at all.

Defensively in the field, Encarnacion should improve and help the best up-the-middle defense in baseball. I certainly wouldn't complain too much about that.

The disclaimer with all the above is it's much more difficult to predict two seasons in advance. Players could get injured, some guys may prove flash in the pans, and some guys just won't be around in 2008. If Brandon Phillips goes out and throws up a .295 on-base percentage next season, that's a problem. If David Ross proves he's a liability offensively, that's a problem. If Homer Bailey and/or Joey Votto get injured and/or stop making development strides, that's a problem. If Todd Coffey's arm falls off from overuse in 2006 and 2007, that's a problem.

Still, the point is the core pieces are already with the club, and I expect two things. First, for the core pieces to be where they're supposed to be starting immediately in 2007 to prepare for 2008 and beyond. This means Denorfia in center field, for example. Second, for Wayne Krivsky to understand which holes still need filling, and for him to go out and actively fill those holes with the right players in time for 2008. Also, other things do need to happen, such as Eric Milton getting the heck out of here ASAP.

If I had confidence in all the above happening, then I wouldn't mind the bumps in 2007, and I'd just sit back and watch the development of key young players and seeing the beginning of an unfolding plan. If there's no confidence in all the above happening, then 2007 will just go down as another long, miserable year in the midst of a long, miserable stretch of several years.

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 02:02 AM
I'm sure my mother was wondering that long before she was aware of my champagne misinformation ;) Regards your question, once again, my first post was serious. I'll be throwing a dance party, kids. It might be, I dunno, in that dirt pit by the ballpark or something, but it'll happen.
Just remember this, you weren't wrong. You were just misinformed. :laugh:


this is a good point, by the way. I'm very curious as to how Wayne's puported gift for scouting will pan out, and as opposed to the major league club, that really is something that is going to take several years to see.
He may not get several years to see his work to fruition, much like his predecessor didn't. I've been waiting to see what WK did in the Rule V though, and I like the chances he took.

WVRedsFan
01-08-2007, 02:15 AM
I was going to quote your post but thought better of it. It's brilliant and spot on. While we've spent (I forget how many) million on what I would consider players no one else wanted, we could have had that No. 3 starter, and that in itself would add 3 or 4 wins to last year's 80. I totally agree with moving Denorfia to center field, but the only RF you will see (if indeed he moves) is Ken Griffey Jr. Like it or not, he's going to be starting somewhere out there and to tell you the truth, if he's healthy, I want him out there. This season, no one could match his run production when he was healthy. And let's go ahead and either make Freel the super sub or get him out of town. If he hold back Chris Denorfia from getting a chance, you can point the finger at one Jerry Narron and Wayne Krivsky by association (awarding Narron an extension).

In fact, all the good management of these players is a pipe dream anyway. I think I was the first to say it back in 2005 when he got the interim manager's job. He might be a nice guy, but he's not the guy you want to lead your team into a championship season. I said the same thing about Miley, but if the Reds, whether under Lindner or Castillini, O'Brien or Krivsky, have proven. We go cheap. No matter what. And that will not change. No matter what.

mth123
01-08-2007, 05:09 AM
Right now, with their current roster and likely roster management, my realistic 2007 prediction for the Reds is 75-87.

Is that something to get excited about? Not really. It can be something to get excited about if I was confident that I had something to look forward to, but I'm not really sure if the team is going to make the required moves to look forward to 2008 and beyond. If I was confident there was something to look forward to in 2008, then I'd look at the bumps in the road for 2007 as a means of moving forward and setting it up for 2008.

Think of it like this ... if the Reds acquired the right players and made the proper roster management decisions with their current players (and new players), then I can easily see this team winning 95 games and becoming a legitimate World Series threat in 2008.

I do want to be clear about one thing, which is what I mean by acquiring the right players doesn't imply a complete roster explosion. The team really is only about four key players away plus proper roster management from being the team that we all hope it can be in 2008. From one angle, that seems like quite a bit. From another angle, it seems like not much at all.

Who are those four players?

1) An above average starting pitcher to insert into the #3 rotation slot (or #4 depending on your view of Homer Bailey at the MLB level in 2008). This guy doesn't have to be a star arm, just above average. Last season, the NL average ERA for starting pitchers was 4.65. If the Reds had a guy who could post a 4.25 ERA in that slot, that works.

2) A right fielder who can post an .850+ OPS. Again, not a star expected to put up a .950 OPS and make the all-star team, just a solid, above average right fielder that plays every day who can make a decent amount of noise with the bat. Unfortunately, and as much as it pains me to say it, a late 30s Ken Griffey, Jr. isn't that guy. At this point, the team is better off if they're able to move him. What is also unfortunate is that Austin Kearns may very well have been this bat, but he's gone now.

3) Two above average to good relief pitchers, specifically above average to good relievers who specialize in missing bats. The Reds are in dire need of relievers who can strike batters out, and I'd like for there to be at least two of them to call on in the bullpen.

Now, simply acquiring those players won't be enough; Narron, or whoever the manager is, has to make the right player decision with the roster at hand. What does some of that entail?

1) Get Chris Denorfia in center field, and get him in center field right now. He should be the opening day center fielder in 2007, he should be a full-time regular major leaguer in 2007, and he'd be a solid piece for a 2008 championship run ballclub. I've said this before, and I'll say it again; the Cincinnati Reds have the players available to field the best up-the-middle defense in all of baseball. Now it's up to the manager to actually make sure they're all on the field and to make that best up-the-middle defense in baseball a reality.

2) If Joey Votto hits well in AAA during the early parts of 2007, get him up to the big leagues in the second half of this upcoming season. But don't just promote him; give him regular starts at first base. I don't expect Joey Votto to come up and suddenly be a giant, middle of the order hitter. He's a very good prospect, but it will take some time for him to get acclimated to major league pitching.

However, by 2008 I do think he'll be the best capable first baseman in this organization at the major league level (unless a player is brought in from outside the organization), and I think he can hit well enough in 2008 to not be a complete liability while he continues to develop. I expect Votto to be promoted at some point in 2007. It may be June, July, August, September or whenever, I don't know, but I expect it at some point. And when he's promoted, he needs to play every day and get regular reps at the major league level. I'd rather see him playing every day in Louisville than sitting on the bench here in Cincinnati, so if he's up here, he needs to play. This may require Narron benching his veterans, and it may be difficult, but handling Votto during 2007 in the best possible way will help the team in 2008.

3) If Homer Bailey pitches well in AAA during the early parts of 2007, get him up to the big leagues during the second half of the season. Coddle him, protect his arm, limit his innings ... but give him a taste of major league hitting. Much of the same above for Votto applies also to Bailey. Handle Homer in the best possible manner in 2007 while giving him a nice taste of major league hitters, and I think he'll be well-suited for the 2008 every day rotation.

Add it up at the end, and things don't look so bad.

Offensively, the team would have Dunn, Encarnacion, and a solid right field bat leading the charge. Surrounding them would be a developing Votto, a solid on-base percentage in Denorfia, and speed with doubles power in Phillips. Gonzalez is a hole and should be buried at the bottom of the lineup. I'm not sure what to expect out of David Ross, but if catcher becomes a liability, it should be fixed. If Ross hits adequately, he'll be fine.

On the mound, the team would have Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, an above average starting pitcher, and a guy in the final spot who hopefully would be a bit better than a Dave Williams type batting tee. Add two solid relievers in the bullpen who specialize in missing bats alongside Coffey and Bray, and the bullpen core wouldn't be bad at all.

Defensively in the field, Encarnacion should improve and help the best up-the-middle defense in baseball. I certainly wouldn't complain too much about that.

The disclaimer with all the above is it's much more difficult to predict two seasons in advance. Players could get injured, some guys may prove flash in the pans, and some guys just won't be around in 2008. If Brandon Phillips goes out and throws up a .295 on-base percentage next season, that's a problem. If David Ross proves he's a liability offensively, that's a problem. If Homer Bailey and/or Joey Votto get injured and/or stop making development strides, that's a problem. If Todd Coffey's arm falls off from overuse in 2006 and 2007, that's a problem.

Still, the point is the core pieces are already with the club, and I expect two things. First, for the core pieces to be where they're supposed to be starting immediately in 2007 to prepare for 2008 and beyond. This means Denorfia in center field, for example. Second, for Wayne Krivsky to understand which holes still need filling, and for him to go out and actively fill those holes with the right players in time for 2008. Also, other things do need to happen, such as Eric Milton getting the heck out of here ASAP.

If I had confidence in all the above happening, then I wouldn't mind the bumps in 2007, and I'd just sit back and watch the development of key young players and seeing the beginning of an unfolding plan. If there's no confidence in all the above happening, then 2007 will just go down as another long, miserable year in the midst of a long, miserable stretch of several years.

I generally agree with this. The team isn't that far away with the right moves. But adding Homer, Votto, another starter and a couple relievers only works if the remaining core (Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips, EE, Coffey, Bray) stay in place. That is going to take cash and is the reason that so much shouldn't have been squandered on vets like Weathers and Conine. This offseason should have been about getting the pieces you point out and locking-up the key current guys. Any other activity was a complete waste of resources and the reason that this offseason was a such a huge failure IMO.

Money spent on the roster filler will come back to haunt this team. The opportunity to try a younger guy and see if he develops into one of the missing pieces has been pre-empted by aging vets filling the roster and the money spent is a finite and limited resource. Once its committed, there is less to work with no matter what the payroll figure is.

Johnny Footstool
01-08-2007, 12:04 PM
If the Reds finish with 90 wins, the following must have happened:

-Harang and Arroyo both post ERAs under 3.50.
-Lohse puts it all together and posts an ERA under 4.00.
-Milton puts whatever he has left together and posts an ERA under 5.00.
-Todd Coffey perfects his fastball/splitter combo and matures enough to handle closing duties until July.
-A healthy, successful Octavio Dotel is acquired from the Royals for minor leaguers at the ASB.
-Denorfia becomes a productive hitter and everyday CF.
-Freel splits time with Griffey in RF and spells Deno in CF.
-Jeff Conine has a miracle rebirth and manages an .825 OPS vs. lefties.

Ltlabner
01-08-2007, 12:39 PM
I generally agree with this. The team isn't that far away with the right moves. But adding Homer, Votto, another starter and a couple relievers only works if the remaining core (Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips, EE, Coffey, Bray) stay in place. That is going to take cash and is the reason that so much shouldn't have been squandered on vets like Weathers and Conine. This offseason should have been about getting the pieces you point out and locking-up the key current guys. Any other activity was a complete waste of resources and the reason that this offseason was a such a huge failure IMO.

Money spent on the roster filler will come back to haunt this team. The opportunity to try a younger guy and see if he develops into one of the missing pieces has been pre-empted by aging vets filling the roster and the money spent is a finite and limited resource. Once its committed, there is less to work with no matter what the payroll figure is.

Hopefully, not spending wildly on a FA means some of that cable money will be used towards locking up the key current guys at todays prices. We'll see. No hint of that taking place at this point.

Krivsky puts a premium on experience and track record over "lets see if he develops". Right or wrong I think a lot of other teams do also. I *think* part of his reasoning for bringing in the Conines and Stantons of the world is that if we need to trade them another team will likely give us something (again, the value of that something is likely small). A lot of other GM's still believe in vetran presence, post season experience, etc. If we take a flyer on a young guy who totally bombs the chances of getting anything in return are nill.

I'm not saying I agree with his approach, right now I don't, but I think that might be part of his throught process on why he'd bring an ageing player with a track record past it's "best buy date" over a total unknown or a AAA guy.

TRF
01-08-2007, 12:54 PM
What happens if the Reds get a lot better in 2007?

The question implies what happens AFTER the season ends. Not what has to happen in order for the Reds to get better. So here is my 5:


Arroyo's value shoots through the roof. And Krivsky better hold out for the biggest possible return. He's signed through 2008, and he's still cheap in '08. He's the kind of guy you trade to the Yankees for Phillip Hughes + another top prospect or two.
The Reds need to determine how far away Bruce is from being the Reds CF. If he finishes 2007 strong AND in AA, he could be the starting CF in 2008.
While the rotation has worked itself out, the Closer situation might not have. If no in-house candidate has emerged (Coffey, Bray, Lohse?) Then it needs to be addressed.
Joey Votto is now ready to assume the 1B position full time. This pushes Hatte to the bench, and instantly solidifies it. Outstanding move.
If the Reds determine Bruce is ready. Something has to be done with Freel. Either he stays and reclaims his supersub role waiting for Griffey to retire/become a FA or he is moved.


This was my 5,500th post. I really need to get a life.

RedsManRick
01-08-2007, 01:04 PM
Spot on Jason. I think the biggest "IF" in all of that is the acquisition of a RF bat. I agree, it's a real shame Kearns was dealt, especially if a deal could've be struck around primarily Lopez & Bray.

So, what's the list of FA OF for 2007 look like? Do we have the pieces to trade for one? From one list I've seen:

Bobby Abreu, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Milton Bradley, Aaron Rowand, Ichiro Suzuki.

Abreu, Jones, and Suzuki are out of our price range. Hunter and Rowand aren't great bats. Meaning from that short list, Milton Bradley is the best fit. Jose Guillen v2.0? Perhaps Carlos Guillen would consider a move from SS if he hits the market -- though that's pie in the sky.

I think the biggest risk is Adam Dunn. What happens if Dunner goes off in 2007 to the tune of .260/.400/.600? We know he's capable of that and I have to believe he'd test the market.

I'm reluctant to project past 2008, but I think given the contract status of both Harang and Arroyo, he either needs to push hard for '08 or capitalize on the current value of these guys and start building for a 2009+ core that doesn't include them.

Reds Nd2
01-08-2007, 03:33 PM
So, what's the list of FA OF for 2007 look like?
Ask and you shall receive. (I'm not sure when this list was made, so some of the players may no longer be available. From our friends at Cot's: (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2007-free-agents.html)

The following players have contracts expiring or should have the six years of service necessary to become free agents after the 2007 season. Players with 2008 options are noted with an asterisk.

Player Club
First Basemen
Sean Casey DET
Tony Clark ARZ
Jeff Conine PHI
Julio Franco NYM
Matt LeCroy WAS
Kevin Millar * BAL
Olmedo Saenz LAD
Mark Sweeney SF
Mike Sweeney KC

Second Basemen
Marlon Anderson LAA
Craig Biggio HOU
Luis Castillo MIN
Damion Easley NYM
Mark Ellis * OAK
Marcus Giles ATL
Mark Grudzielanek* KC
D'Angelo Jimenez OAK
Jeff Kent * LAD
Luis Rivas TB
Jose Valentin NYM

Shortstops
David Eckstein STL
Carlos Guillen DET
Cesar Izturis * CHC
Ramon E Martinez* LAD
John McDonald TOR
Neifi Perez DET
Juan Uribe * CHW
Omar Vizquel SF
Michael Young * TEX

Third Basemen
Russell Branyan SD
Corey Koskie * MIL
Mike Lamb HOU
Mike Lowell BOS
Greg Norton * TB
Abraham O. Nunez PHI
Alex Rodriguez NYY (may void after 2007)

Catchers
Brad Ausmus HOU
Paul Bako BAL
Michael Barrett CHC
Gary Bennett * STL
Ramon Castro NYM
Sal Fasano NYY
Wiki Gonzalez WAS
Toby Hall LAD
Jason Kendall OAK
Jason LaRue KC
Paul Lo Duca NYM
Mike Matheny * SF
Damian Miller MIL
Chad Moeller CIN
Jose Molina LAA
Josh Paul TB
Jorge Posada NYY
Ivan Rodriguez * DET
Yorvit Torrealba COL
Javier Valentin * CIN

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu * NYY
Moises Alou * NYM
Milton Bradley OAK
Adrian Brown TEX
Eric Byrnes ARZ
Mike Cameron SD
Roger Cedeno BAL
Brady Clark MIL
Jeff DaVanon ARZ
Adam Dunn * CIN
Jermaine Dye CWS
Luis Gonzalez ARZ
Shawn Green* NYM
Eric Hinske BOS
Torii Hunter MIN
Geoff Jenkins * MIL
Andruw Jones ATL
Bobby Kielty OAK
Rob Mackowiak * CWS
Eli Marrero STL
Luis Matos WAS
Jason Michaels CLE
Orlando Palmeiro HOU
Corey Patterson BAL
Timo Perez STL
Aaron Rowand PHI
Reggie Sanders KC
Ichiro Suzuki SEA
Brad Wilkerson TEX

Starting Pitchers
Kris Benson * BAL
Mark Buerhle CWS
Paul Byrd * CLE
Shawn Chacon PIT
Matt Clement BOS
Bartolo Colon LAA
Scott Elarton KC
Josh Fogg COL
Casey Fossum * TB
Freddy Garcia CWS
Geremi Gonzalez TOR
Livan Hernandez ARZ
Jason Jennings COL
Randy Johnson NYY
Brian Lawrence WAS
Jon Lieber PHI
Kyle Lohse CIN
Wade Miller CHC
Eric Milton CIN
Odalis Perez * KC
Joel Pineiro SEA
Kenny Rogers DET
Curt Schilling BOS
Carlos Silva MIN
John Smoltz * ATL
Brett Tomko * LAD
Kip Wells STL
Jake Westbrook CLE
Randy Wolf * LAD
Jaret Wright BAL
Carlos Zambrano CHC
Victor Zambrano NYM

Relief Pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt COL
Armando Benitez SF
Hector Carrasco * LAA
Francisco Cordero MIL
Rheal Cormier CIN
Vic Darensbourg DET
Doug Davis ARZ
Elmer Dessens LAD
Scott Eyre * CHC
Travis Harper TB
Trevor Hoffman * SD
Jason Isringhausen* STL
Todd Jones DET
Jorge Julio ARZ
Joe Kennedy OAK
Byung-Hyun Kim COL
Scott Linebrink SD
Rodrigo Lopez BAL
Ron Mahay TEX
Dan Miceli TB
Trever Miller HOU
Mike Myers NYY
Joe Nathan * MIN
Chris Reitsma ATL
Ricardo Rincon STL
Mariano Rivera NYY
Glendon Rusch CHC
Rudy Seanez SD
Julian Tavarez * BOS
Mike Timlin BOS
Mike Venafro COL
Luis Vizcaino ARZ
Bob Wickman ATL
Scott Williamson BAL
Jay Witasick * OAK
Kerry Wood CHC
Tim Worrell SF

Strikes Out Looking
01-08-2007, 05:21 PM
If the Reds win 90 games--

1. Alex Gonzalez wins the gold glove.
2. Narron pulled no bonehead moves like keeping Milton in too long and benching EE for no apparent reason.
3. Either Harang or Bronson is Cy Young candidate.
4. Griffey and Dunn are both top 5 MVP candidates.
5. I have a much happier Fall in '07 and Winter in '08 than present.

Matt700wlw
01-08-2007, 05:31 PM
Happy fans!

mth123
01-08-2007, 08:48 PM
Krivsky puts a premium on experience and track record over "lets see if he develops".

Yet his best move so far was the lets see if he develops move with Brandon Phillips. Need more like that IMO.

Ltlabner
01-08-2007, 09:03 PM
Yet his best move so far was the lets see if he develops move with Brandon Phillips. Need more like that IMO,

I'd say Ross falls in that category also. And yes, I'd love to see many more Phillips-esque deals.

I think Wayne attempt to walk the fence between competing and rebuilding results in some of of these schophrenic moves.