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UPRedsFan
01-08-2007, 07:14 PM
Just curious, what does everyone believe the chances are of Victor making the roster and becoming the 5th starter?

I would hope he's only injury protection and headed to AAA. Have to believe Belisle or Ramirez will earn the spot. But it's a good signing to have some experience waiting in the wings. Santos, as I recall, is capable of pitching some good games.

Redsland
01-08-2007, 07:41 PM
If he can make our roster, we're worse off than I thought.

RedLegSuperStar
01-08-2007, 07:52 PM
He'd have to be lights out considering he didn't fair to well with Pittsburg last year. His numbers from last year arn't anything to write home about either:

5-9 5.70 (25 games/19 starts) 3 SV 115.1 innings 73 Runs 16 HR (1.25 HR/9) 81 K (6.32 K/9) 42 BB (3.28 BB/9)

This just from Marc:


The name that jumped out at me from the non-roster invitees was Victor Santos. The guy has spent almost all of the last three seasons in the majors, mostly as a starter. Sounds like he'll definitely get a look for the fifth spot in the rotation.

"He’s a versatile guy that can start and relieve," said Wayne Krivsky. "He’s going to come to camp and, at least at the outset, compete for a starting spot. That’s what he was signed to do. We’ll see how it goes, but a guy like him could make the team either as a starter or in the bullpen – it just depends on how things shake out."

The other unfamiliar pitcher, Kershner, also might be in the running. He's mostly been a reliever lately but has been starting in Puerto Rico and pitching well.

Also, Krivsky said the Reds are still in negotiations with the agents for Paul Wilson, Eddie Guardado and Kent Mercker. They'll get minor league contracts if they decide to stay on.

One more thing: Someone wondered in the comments why Joey Votto wasn't on the list: He's on the 40-man roster, and everyone on the 40-man is invited to camp.

edabbs44
01-08-2007, 09:28 PM
Negotiating for three guys who are coming off of serious injuries? I hope the negotiations aren't that at all...more like non-roster invitations.

And Wayne...you have acquired a multitude of relievers. If the BP is still questionable enough that you have to go after pitchers pushing 40 and coming off of elbow surgery, then you might as well quit.

redsupport
01-08-2007, 09:56 PM
kershner has less hits than ip's in his career

edabbs44
01-08-2007, 10:02 PM
kershner has less hits than ip's in his career

2006 AAA:

33 2/3 innings, 41 hits.

1.49 WHIP.

.306 BAA.

Doesn't sound too promising.

Is he coming off surgery?

If so, that would be the lefty TJ hat trick with EG and Mercker.

Team Clark
01-09-2007, 11:38 AM
Ryan Franklin Part Deux

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 11:41 AM
Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like Santos has much upside. I know most #5 starters are going to be bad, but why not at least give somebody starts who has a shot at being better. Locking yourself in at #5 starter performance upside just doesn't seem that smart.

redsmetz
01-09-2007, 11:48 AM
Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like Santos has much upside. I know most #5 starters are going to be bad, but why not at least give somebody starts who has a shot at being better. Locking yourself in at #5 starter performance upside just doesn't seem that smart.

Of course, this assumes he makes the roster. Every signing does not mean the players going to make, particularly when we're talking about minor league deals with an invite to spring training. Another piece to look at. If he comes around and can help us, more power to him.

I think we work ourselves into a dither (and I'm not saying you in particular) over every signing and we have to wait and see what Spring Training results are and what this club's roster is when we break camp.

dfs
01-09-2007, 12:30 PM
From Baseball think factory, these are the projections for 07. I believe the Santos projection is for Pittsburgh and the Livingston is for Philly.


Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Homer Bailey 21 4.50 7 8 27 24 126.0 120 63 15 66 110
Matt Belisle 27 4.95 5 6 42 13 109.0 120 60 15 34 73
Elizardo Ramirez 24 4.97 6 8 26 23 134.0 156 74 23 29 83
Victor Santos 30 5.08 5 10 26 20 124.0 141 70 15 48 76
Phil Dumatrait* 25 5.72 6 12 26 25 140.0 156 89 20 69 91
Bobby Livingston 24 6.28 6 13 26 24 149.0 185 104 32 46 68

Assuming they aren't willing to just grant Baily a slot in the rotation, Santos belongs in the competition for the fifth slot as much as anybody else in the organization. While depth might not look great as quality, there is some small value to it.

maniem
01-09-2007, 12:57 PM
What happened to Claussen? Did someone else pick him up? If he can prove he's healthy, I would imagine he has just as much of a chance to succeed as Santos, Livingston, EZ, and Belisle.

Always Red
01-09-2007, 01:26 PM
He's most probably insurance, in case, Milty, EZ and Belisle all don't rebound from injury.

dfs
01-09-2007, 01:28 PM
Back in December Claussen was removed from the 40 man roster, designated for assignment and non-tendered making him a free agent. After the removal, both Krivsky and Narron gave out quotes that pretty much said "too bad, so sad. He's not going to pitch till midseason and was gutless anyway."

If Claussen does come back, then yeah....he belongs in there as much as anybody, but I think he would be pretty crazy to come back here. He's got Jim Bowden smell all over him and elbow surgery followed by shoulder surgery doesn't sound like a good career track. If anybody has a Brandon update, I'm interested, but if I read the tea leaves correctly that ship has sailed.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 01:43 PM
Thanks for the projections dfs. What more interests me is the variability around those projections and likelihood of sustainability at a higher level of performance. I'm curious what each of their 90% PECOTAs look like. Who of that group has a chance to be a #3 or #4 starter moving forward? If we can expect them to be relatively the same on average, give me the guy with the highest ceiling. My gut says:

1. Bailey
2. Ramirez
3. Belisle
4. Dumatrait
5. Santos
6. Livingston

Dumatrait is probably the furthest away right now and a number of those guys have injury histories. I just don't like the idea of a guy whose upside is being a consistent 4.75 ERA guy getting a lot of innings. I like having him around, sure. But I'd rather give the first shots to guys with a better chance of doing more.

Degenerate39
01-09-2007, 02:15 PM
Reds' fifth starter up for grabs
Tuesday, Jan 9, 2007 10:56 am EST

Unless the Cincinnati Reds add an established starter before pitchers and catchers report in five weeks, the competition for the spot behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse figures to be wide open.

Right-hander Victor Santos, who spent much of last season in the Pirates rotation and the previous two years with the Brewers, will definitely get a look.

Source: Cincinnati Post
.

BRM
01-09-2007, 02:19 PM
I'm still pretty disappointed that Milton and Lohse will both be in the rotation this season. I had hoped to see one of them gone by now.

dfs
01-09-2007, 02:19 PM
That's an interesting approach Rick. Those are Dan Szymborski's Zip projections which is a much more linear system than what the BP guys do. I'm not in the buisness of evaluting projection systems, Dan's are freely available and Clay's aren't. That's why I used Dan's above. My guess is that the BP 10% projections will probably show you much of what you see here. From my discussions with the BP guys, they are still refining PECOTA for pitchers based on type and in light of what Voras did (Bapip) I think they're right to do that.

What you're really after, is who is likely to hit big. This is just me talkin...

The reds have already pretty much announced that Arroyo, Harang, Milton and Lohse are going to be 4 of the starting five. I feel your pain about that BRM, but that's that. They need a fifth. There could always be a deal. It's likely that sometime during the year, they'll need a sixth and maybe even a seventh. That's why depth is important.

My guess is that it is already pre-determined that Homer will start the season at AAA. You can argue the wisdom of it, but that's my guess. My hope is that homer is the sixth guy that will be called up when an injury sends somebody else out.

I don't think Livingston is going to be on the major league roster. He's young enough and has another option year that he doesn't have to be. He needs a bounceback year to get back on the prospect track. If he does that, we could see him in 08, if not I assume they cut him loose.

I think Matt Belisle's future is pretty much determined by his back. If he can pitch every fifth day, they should let him go as long as he can. After the reds let Claussen go, Krivsky made some comments about Belisle as a starter. It was the first time any of the reds front office indicated they thought of him as a starter.

Based on what happened in August, I think Jerry Narron is done with Elizardo. I could be wrong about that, but the guys big plus was that he didn't get rattled on the mound. When that left him, he got shelled, the organization lost confidence in him and he came up injured in AAA. Now, maybe the injury predated the loss of organizational confidence in him. Looking into his numbers, I don't see a real upside for him.

What I saw of Dumatrait with the Lookouts indicated that he wasn't ready for the reds, but it could have been he was off when I saw him. He has unhittable stuff now and then, the problem is consistancy.

That leaves Santos. He had a hard luck year two years ago with the Brewers where he put up a 4.57 era and lost a ton of games. If he put up a 4.57 era, he deserves a slot in this rotation. I don't think he can do better than that. Belisle and Baily can probably do that. I don't much like the chances of Rameriz or Dumatrait doing that.

My understanding is that Dumatrait, Rameriz and Belisle are all out of options. If there is a trade brewing, it wouldn't shock me to see one (or two) of them going out of the organzition. Along with the lefty relievers and Ryan Freel, the reds can trade any of those without feeling any real pain.

As always, corrections are welcome.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 02:32 PM
That approach, if true, towards EZ saddens me. The guy was pitching well, started to pitch through an injury and his performance suffered. Then, they jerk him around in the Philly fiasco immediately after a (likely) injured induced rough outing in St Louis.

I'm not saying young pitchers should conceal injuries, but I don't see the Reds abandoning Mr. PrentendYou'reHealthyWhenYou'reNotAndHurtTheTeam Milton (or Wilson...).

23 year olds with plus control and ground ball tendencies deserve 2nd (and 3rd) chances, if anybody does. Maybe the kid wouldn't feel compelled to hide an injury if he didn't feel like he was constantly on his last chance to make it. One area where it seems the Reds continually fail, and the Braves & A's continually succeed, is in providing the proper environment for young talent to succeed. I get the feeling that the Reds are focussed solely on developing baseball skills, not baseball players in the upper end of the system.

IslandRed
01-09-2007, 02:33 PM
I think dfs beat me to most of what I was about to write, so I'll just say "good post." I expect Belisle or Santos to win the job out of camp. Bailey will probably start in Louisville just because, but won't stay long if he builds on last year's gains.

tomd63
01-10-2007, 11:32 PM
I'm still pretty disappointed that Milton and Lohse will both be in the rotation this season. I had hoped to see one of them gone by now.

I hear you. The really scary part is. Santos stacks up pretty well with those two over the last three years. The following data is from my rotation slot analysis the last three seasons, the number in front of their name is what rotation slot they ranked via their XERA for that season.

2006 ERA GS IP WHIP XERA
#4 E Milton 5.19 26 152.7 1.34 5.00
#4 V Santos 5.19 19 102.3 1.61 5.46
#4 K Lohse 6.19 19 100.3 1.60 5.56

2005 ERA GS IP WHIP XERA
#4 VSantos 4.56 24 134.3 1.48 4.93
#4 KLohse 4.18 30 176.6 1.43 4.94
#5 EMilton 6.47 34 186.3 1.55 6.27

2004 ERA GS IP WHIP XERA
#3 V Santos 4.86 28 150.0 1.45 4.67
#4 E Milton 4.75 34 201.0 1.35 4.95
#5 K Lohse 5.36 34 193.0 1.63 5.79

As of right now, I expect these three to be the Reds number 3-5 starters unless some more moves are made.

jbran1114
01-11-2007, 05:26 AM
That approach, if true, towards EZ saddens me. The guy was pitching well, started to pitch through an injury and his performance suffered. Then, they jerk him around in the Philly fiasco immediately after a (likely) injured induced rough outing in St Louis.

I'm not saying young pitchers should conceal injuries, but I don't see the Reds abandoning Mr. PrentendYou'reHealthyWhenYou'reNotAndHurtTheTeam Milton (or Wilson...).

23 year olds with plus control and ground ball tendencies deserve 2nd (and 3rd) chances, if anybody does. Maybe the kid wouldn't feel compelled to hide an injury if he didn't feel like he was constantly on his last chance to make it. One area where it seems the Reds continually fail, and the Braves & A's continually succeed, is in providing the proper environment for young talent to succeed. I get the feeling that the Reds are focussed solely on developing baseball skills, not baseball players in the upper end of the system.

Totally agree. EZ showed some flashes before it all fell apart for him. He was putting up QS after QS (LIKE THAT STAT OR NOT) before his injury. EZ deserves another shot. The month of August totally blew up his stats. I feel that with his experiences in 06 he could improve in 07. That month of June was especially good.

mth123
01-11-2007, 05:54 AM
Totally agree. EZ showed some flashes before it all fell apart for him. He was putting up QS after QS (LIKE THAT STAT OR NOT) before his injury. EZ deserves another shot. The month of August totally blew up his stats. I feel that with his experiences in 06 he could improve in 07. That month of June was especially good.

I agree. IMO EZ>Santos>Lohse. Belisle is kind of a wild card.

In my world Milton starts out in the Rotation, proves he's healthy and is sent away by Memorial Day (all star break at latest) when teams are starting to look for help and there are no FA options to turn to. You move his remaining salary and get a prospect back that way.

EZ starts as well for all the reasons RMR and JBRAN mention. Belisle is my placeholder at the 5 spot with Santos (or Dumatrait or Kelly or Junge or Livingston or Shearn or Pelland) as a fallback. A better young undervalued option should be obtained if possible a la Arroyo last spring but maybe with less of a track record in the majors. That would push Belisle to long relief and Santos to AAA.

Lohse is traded for prospects or maybe a 4th OF bat with some ability to play all 3 spots (like Ryan Church so that Freel can be traded for the pitcher). Bailey takes over for Milton when he is shipped out.