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View Full Version : Dear Wayne, play Denorfia in CF because....



RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 01:25 PM
I'm going to write this letter when I get a chance this weekend. I'm going to talk about the amount of runs he could save defensively and I'm going to talk about reasonable offensive expectations. The case has been made in bits and pieces all over the board, with some people buying in and others still skeptical.

If you already have evidence compiled, please feel free to share/link it here. Otherwise I'm going to go to town when I have some time on my hands in a few days....

(When I said write a letter, I meant it somewhat metaphorically, as in -- on this board. The idea of actually sending him a "study" hadn't really crossed my mind, but now that you mention it, what's the worst that could happen? It gets thrown in the trash and never read. Oh well. And Aves, if I thought WK had a solid grasp on the relative contributions of offense & defense and the way each of those skill sets age, I don't think we would've had Royce Clayton on our 25 man roster and I don't think Junior would've been in CF last year.)

TOBTTReds
01-09-2007, 02:08 PM
No offense, but he will probably never see it and probably wouldn't read it if you handed it to him personally. Also, do you think he doesn't know this stuff already?

M2
01-09-2007, 02:08 PM
Forget about the numbers. The sell is to play him in CF because he's scrappy and you need an overachiever to pull the wagon if your team is going to overachieve.

TRF
01-09-2007, 02:10 PM
No offense, but he will probably never see it and probably wouldn't read it if you handed it to him personally. Also, do you think he doesn't know this stuff already?

How long was Q on the 25 man roster?

I really wonder if he does know this stuff.

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 02:24 PM
There is nothing about Denorfia's play, that I have seen, that should warrant him being given the starting CF job.

M2
01-09-2007, 02:28 PM
There is nothing about Denorfia's play, that I have seen, that should warrant him being given the starting CF job.

Just the opposite with me. He gets a good jump, takes good routes, has good speed and a solid arm. At the plate he takes a good approach to each AB and has a nice compact swing. He's performed all the way up the ladder and he's shown promise in limited MLB exposure.

Far as I can tell, he's the team's best defensive option in CF and it looks like he can at least be an average hitter at that position.

Team Clark
01-09-2007, 02:30 PM
No offense, but he will probably never see it and probably wouldn't read it if you handed it to him personally. Also, do you think he doesn't know this stuff already?

LOL! How did ya know?:laugh: Haven't been over to their offices have ya?;)

gonelong
01-09-2007, 02:37 PM
There is nothing about Denorfia's play, that I have seen, that should warrant him being given the starting CF job.

I think he should get it by default.

There is no one on the roster that has played well enought to warrent the starting CF Job. Freel can't seem to play every day, and Jr has no range.

At least Denorfia comes with the possibility of some upside.

GL

texasdave
01-09-2007, 02:44 PM
Should that be a Dear Jerry letter? Doesn't Krivsky acquire the players and Narron manage them on the ball field?

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 02:49 PM
If he comes out and has a good spring training, hits, and wins the job, I have no problem with him getting a chance, but he needs to earn it. I have not been overly impressed with his major league performance. I've seen him play in the minor leagues and from everything I've seen, he seems more like a guy that can come off the bench and give a guy a rest and not hurt you a lot. I am just not sold that he is an everyday major league centerfielder, based on what he has shown. It would be a pleasant surprise if he proves otherwise.

mbgrayson
01-09-2007, 02:49 PM
I would love to see Denorfia given a straight shot at a starting outfield position, be it in center, left, or right.

Defensively, he is an improvement over everyone we have except maybe Ryan Freel.

Offensively, I think he has real potential to be a good 'on-base guy'. In the new 2007 Bill James Handbook, they project Chris Denorfia as follows for 2007:
135 games, 447 ABs, 139 hits, 28 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 HRs, 67 runs, 60 RBIs, 48 BBs, and 69 Ks, 14 steals with a 74% SB success rate, .311/.379/.463 for an OPS of .842.

I know that many of you will wonder what Bill James is smoking. The fact is that Denorfia has had good luck in the minors. Although he struggled for a time last summer, he finished the season on a nice surge, batting .352/.407/.463 (.870 OPS) in September/October with 54 ABs. The only way to see how he would do is to put him in there full time for a couple months, and let him sink or swim.

edabbs44
01-09-2007, 02:55 PM
Forget about the numbers. The sell is to play him in CF because he's scrappy and you need an overachiever to pull the wagon if your team is going to overachieve.

Tell him he is from Cuba and he is actually 47 yrs old. Then he'll start for sure.

Highlifeman21
01-09-2007, 02:57 PM
There is nothing about Denorfia's play, that I have seen, that should warrant him being given the starting CF job.

Then you haven't seen #19 much in a Reds uniform.

He takes the best routes to balls, gets the best jump, and has surprising speed.

I'd love to see him and Freel race. I think with Denorfia's longer strides, he might surprise you with the result.

If the choice is between Griffey, Freel and Denorfia, it should be no contest.

Denorifa, then Freel, then Griffey.

edabbs44
01-09-2007, 02:57 PM
I would love to see Denorfia given a straight shot at a starting outfield position, be it in center, left, or right.

Defensively, he is an improvement over everyone we have except maybe Ryan Freel.

Offensively, I think he has real potential to be a good 'on-base guy'. In the new 2007 Bill James Handbook, they project Chris Denorfia as follows for 2007:
135 games, 447 ABs, 139 hits, 28 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 HRs, 67 runs, 60 RBIs, 48 BBs, and 69 Ks, 14 steals with a 74% SB success rate, .311/.379/.463 for an OPS of .842.

I know that many of you will wonder what Bill James is smoking. The fact is that Denorfia has had good luck in the minors. Although he struggled for a time last summer, he finished the season on a nice surge, batting .352/.407/.463 (.870 OPS) in September/October with 54 ABs. The only way to see how he would do is to put him in there full time for a couple months, and let him sink or swim.

There is the key. Cincy handed him the job last year and yanked it from him in a week. NEWSFLASH...this team is headed nowhere this season. Let's see what we have in Denorfia. Give him all the time you need in making an assessment.

Jpup
01-09-2007, 03:02 PM
As long as Freel is on the team, he should start in center and leadoff 5 out of 6 games. Let Deno play there the 6th game or whenever Freel needs a break, but you have to give Freel the job.

M2
01-09-2007, 03:08 PM
In the new 2007 Bill James Handbook, they project Chris Denorfia as follows for 2007:
135 games, 447 ABs, 139 hits, 28 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 HRs, 67 runs, 60 RBIs, 48 BBs, and 69 Ks, 14 steals with a 74% SB success rate, .311/.379/.463 for an OPS of .842.

In other words, kid profiles like he'll be a player despite the lack of a pedigree. How very Brady Clark of him. Maybe the Reds will trade him for Shawn Estes.

Team Clark
01-09-2007, 03:09 PM
There is the key. Cincy handed him the job last year and yanked it from him in a week. NEWSFLASH...this team is headed nowhere this season. Let's see what we have in Denorfia. Give him all the time you need in making an assessment.

Keep in mind that he made his own "silly" adjustment at the plate and it was several weeks before any of the crack staff of the Reds figured it out. After Deno got that straightened out he was golden. He drew his hands closer to his body and more toward the pitcher for some odd reason. Screwed him up a bit. There was a real good article about it toward the end of the season in the Enquirer/Post.

Deno is as fast as Freel. I'd love to see both start in the OF. Those two can cover some serious ground.

Team Clark
01-09-2007, 03:12 PM
Here's a link to that article. Was on the Reds site. Not the Enquirer. Sorry.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060928&content_id=1688010&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin&partnered=rss_cin

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 03:17 PM
Then you haven't seen #19 much in a Reds uniform.

He takes the best routes to balls, gets the best jump, and has surprising speed.

I'd love to see him and Freel race. I think with Denorfia's longer strides, he might surprise you with the result.

If the choice is between Griffey, Freel and Denorfia, it should be no contest.

Denorifa, then Freel, then Griffey.

No, I don't watch much Reds baseball.

edabbs44
01-09-2007, 03:25 PM
Keep in mind that he made his own "silly" adjustment at the plate and it was several weeks before any of the crack staff of the Reds figured it out. After Deno got that straightened out he was golden. He drew his hands closer to his body and more toward the pitcher for some odd reason. Screwed him up a bit. There was a real good article about it toward the end of the season in the Enquirer/Post.

Deno is as fast as Freel. I'd love to see both start in the OF. Those two can cover some serious ground.

Agreed. He was arguably the best position player in September. Give him a shot.

Marc D
01-09-2007, 03:25 PM
What does JR still bring to the table in CF besides his name?

Its certainly not range.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 03:26 PM
What does JR still bring to the table in CF besides his name?

Its certainly not range.

must... not... say... ego....

Cyclone792
01-09-2007, 03:35 PM
Here's my evidence ...


Chris Denorfia
Career Minor League Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .295 .375 .447 .822 .080 .152 9.08


2006 Denorfia Louisville Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Regular .349 .409 .484 .893 .060 .135 10.38
Park Adj. .355 .418 .490 .908 .063 .135 9.81
MLE .313 .366 .429 .795 .053 .116 12.32


Career MLB Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .278 .356 .382 .740 .078 .104 9.65
2006 NL CF Avg. .264 .335 .418 .753 .071 .154 11.85

The most important line to look at first in the above chart is what the average National League center fielder produced in 2006, which was a .264/.335/.418 line, good for a .753 OPS. If Chris Denorfia can put up an OPS in the .750 range, then he would be putting up offensive numbers good enough to be an average offensive center fielder in the big leagues.

Do I think Chris Denorfia can accomplish just that? Very much so.

Everything about his minor league history and even his short big league history of 164 career plate appearances suggests to me that Chris Denorfia can OPS in the .750 range. The main reason is his walk rate, which has always been solid in the minor leagues and has continued to show signs of life so far in the major leagues. If Denorfia maintains his walk rates, or even if they decline a bit which should be expected, then he could post 55-65 walks over a full major league season. Even if he only bats .280 instead of over .300 as his MLE's suggest, that still means Denorfia could post an on-base percentage in the .350 range, which would be above average for a center fielder. He won't display as much power as an average center fielder, but he'll make up for that with above average on-base skills.

Put the total offensive package together, and I think he's got the makings to produce similar numbers to what the average center fielder can produce.

Defensively, there's nothing at all not to like about Denorfia, who was also voted in a BA poll as having the best tools for defensive outfielder in all of AAA in 2006.

His range is superb, he gets excellent jumps on balls, he takes excellent routes to balls, and his arm is at least average - though I've heard reports that his arm is actually well above average. His top speed and closing speed on fly balls is simply remarkable, and he's truly the best defensive outfielder I've seen in a Reds uniform since Mike Cameron in 1999. In terms of defensive run value, I think it's very easily possible that Denorfia could save 15 runs per 150 games over the average big league defensive center fielder. That's about a 35 run swing in the positive direction from what we're getting out of Griffey defensively in center field (~ -20 runs above average).

Wrap all the above up into one player - average offense for center field plus excellent defense - and that's an overall above average player. Add in that he's still 26-years-old and will continue to make around the league minimum both in 2007 and 2008, and that means the Reds most definitely have a valuable asset in Denorfia. Personally, I'd make him the starting center fielder starting immediately in 2007 and wouldn't think twice.

Highlifeman21
01-09-2007, 03:40 PM
No, I don't watch much Reds baseball.

I figured as much.

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 03:53 PM
I figured as much.

:clap:

dfs
01-09-2007, 03:55 PM
In other words, kid profiles like he'll be a player despite the lack of a pedigree. How very Brady Clark of him. Maybe the Reds will trade him for Shawn Estes.
Ah dude, that's just...that's cold.

Clark for Estes sure does look dumb in retrospect... but Clark was never going to get playing time here, not with Dunn, Kearns, Guillen, Pena and Junior around. Flipping Clark for Estes in order to "try and get over the hump" in 02 and sneak into the playoffs was the sensible thing to do.

TeamSelig
01-09-2007, 03:57 PM
I really doubt any manager would bench Ken Griffey Jr., but I think there is a very good chance that Denorfia will get to play (injuries)... I'd definitely like to see Chris get alot of ABs this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an upper 700s OPS. We need another big bat though, and replacing Griffey with him would hurt us IMO. As soon as Votto takes over for Hatteberg at 1st is a good time to hand the CF job over to Denorfia.

RANDY IN INDY
01-09-2007, 04:02 PM
I hope all you guys are right about Denorfia. I would love to see the kid shine.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 04:03 PM
Dangit Jeff...

[ctrl] C

[ctrl] V

Send.

Done :)

gm
01-09-2007, 04:04 PM
Labor day. Junior climbs the wall in an attempt to rob Bonds and dislocates his toe. Freel moves from right to center, Deno comes in to play RF.

Jerry has spoken

M2
01-09-2007, 04:06 PM
Defensively, there's nothing at all not to like about Denorfia, who was also voted in a BA poll as having the best tools for defensive outfielder in all of AAA in 2006.

Hard to say that enough. The consensus on him is he's a very good defensive OF.

I'm with you. Let the ballplayer play ball.

M2
01-09-2007, 04:15 PM
Ah dude, that's just...that's cold.

Clark for Estes sure does look dumb in retrospect... but Clark was never going to get playing time here, not with Dunn, Kearns, Guillen, Pena and Junior around. Flipping Clark for Estes in order to "try and get over the hump" in 02 and sneak into the playoffs was the sensible thing to do.

Don't forget about Ruben Mateo. He was around too ... and JimBo loved him in more than a fraternal way. And Reggie Taylor was going to learn to hit too.

I actually had a similar view of the deal at the time, but then I saw Jr. at the end of the season display the kind of range that made me wonder how Mo Vaughn got the CF job and I changed my mind. Clark was cheap and the team needed to move that OF surplus for young pitching, not cross-your-fingers veterans. Basically, the Reds needed to gamble on a guy like Clark instead of endlessly gambling on bad pitchers.

Anyway, I think a guy like Clark would have been a good fit with the Reds, much the same way I think Denorfia would now. I think both have some contagious qualities.

M2
01-09-2007, 04:16 PM
Labor day. Junior climbs the wall in an attempt to rob Bonds and dislocates his toe. Freel moves from right to center, Deno comes in to play RF.

Jerry has spoken

Good point. Jerry likes seniority up the middle.

dougdirt
01-09-2007, 04:46 PM
In 2004 BA rated Chris Denorfia as the best outfield arm in the system. In 2005 and 2006, that went to Jay Bruce. Take it for what its worth, but his arm is probably at least slightly above average if not better than that.

Marc D
01-09-2007, 04:48 PM
The sad part is no matter how logical the argument is against it or obvious the need to do otherwise, our manager will put JR in CF and bat him 3rd as long as he is healthy enough to take the field.

Being a Reds fan is hard enough, Narron is just insult to injury.

BRM
01-09-2007, 04:52 PM
I really doubt any manager would bench Ken Griffey Jr., but I think there is a very good chance that Denorfia will get to play (injuries)... I'd definitely like to see Chris get alot of ABs this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an upper 700s OPS. We need another big bat though, and replacing Griffey with him would hurt us IMO. As soon as Votto takes over for Hatteberg at 1st is a good time to hand the CF job over to Denorfia.

I don't think anyone is advocating benching Junior. Deno in CF, Junior in RF is what I believe most on here would like to see. Freel would play all three OF spots giving guys days off.

reds44
01-09-2007, 05:52 PM
FYI, Denorfia changed his number to 27 so Conine could have 19.

Such a nice man.

Highlifeman21
01-09-2007, 05:56 PM
FYI, Denorifa changed his number to 27 so Conine could have 19.

Such a nice man.

Thanks for the update, I'll have to pick up a #27 to go with the 2006 #19 model!

Topcat
01-09-2007, 06:31 PM
I really doubt any manager would bench Ken Griffey Jr., but I think there is a very good chance that Denorfia will get to play (injuries)... I'd definitely like to see Chris get alot of ABs this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an upper 700s OPS. We need another big bat though, and replacing Griffey with him would hurt us IMO. As soon as Votto takes over for Hatteberg at 1st is a good time to hand the CF job over to Denorfia.


Thats just it in a nutshell. If Denofrio is ever going to get pt on this team. Tme management has to nut up and move Dunn to !st base and Griffey to LF. This would be a good thing for this team and needs to do what is right for the long term of the Reds. griffeys career is winding down and Dunn is no outfielder thats a fact.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 06:39 PM
Thats just it in a nutshell. If Denofrio is ever going to get pt on this team. Tme management has to nut up and move Dunn to !st base and Griffey to LF. This would be a good thing for this team and needs to do what is right for the long term of the Reds. griffeys career is winding down and Dunn is no outfielder thats a fact.

It's not even that complicated. Deno has enough range that Junior in RF still makes the OF that much better. If you can get your hands on a copy of John Dewan's book on defense, you can see that the Reds were absolutely horrible relative to the league on balls deep to LF, deep to CF, and in the LF/CF gap...

As much as Junior claims that RF means more stopping quickly on the ball, I have to wonder the effect of backing up every play hit to a corner OF. Sure, it might not pressure the ol' joints so much, but the standard wear & tear from basic running alone has to be easier in a corner spot.

Topcat
01-09-2007, 07:02 PM
More importantly Rick it should be done because it is best for the team. If Griffey and Dunn can't see how that is true then it is time to send them packing.

edabbs44
01-09-2007, 08:12 PM
Labor day. Junior climbs the wall in an attempt to rob Bonds and dislocates his toe. Freel moves from right to center, Deno comes in to play RF.

Jerry has spoken

In Sept/Oct:

Freel: .208/.311/.302
Denorfia: .352/.407/.463

The stats have spoken?

GAC
01-09-2007, 08:32 PM
If he comes out and has a good spring training, hits, and wins the job, I have no problem with him getting a chance, but he needs to earn it. I have not been overly impressed with his major league performance. I've seen him play in the minor leagues and from everything I've seen, he seems more like a guy that can come off the bench and give a guy a rest and not hurt you a lot. I am just not sold that he is an everyday major league centerfielder, based on what he has shown. It would be a pleasant surprise if he proves otherwise.

He's maybe another Brady Clark. ;)

GAC
01-09-2007, 08:45 PM
Everything about his minor league history and even his short big league history of 164 career plate appearances suggests to me that Chris Denorfia can OPS in the .750 range.

I have no problem with giving the kid a shot since Jr definitely needs to be moved. And while it may be the only thing we have to go on, is minor league history a valid indicator to translate (project) into major league success (real numbers)? I don't think it is. Now it may earn that kid a "shot or serious look-see obviously.

But I get the opinion that we'll take any option right now, even a Denorfria, to get Jr out of CF.

Kc61
01-09-2007, 08:47 PM
Freel should play center 60 percent of the time. Deno should play center 40 percent of the time. This gives Freel his needed rest time. It gives Deno enough playing time -- more would come if there are outfield injuries -- to get comfortable and have a good major league year.

Not a traditional platoon, since both hit righty, but for 2007 that's how I would play it.

RedsManRick
01-09-2007, 09:07 PM
I have no problem with giving the kid a shot since Jr definitely needs to be moved. And while it may be the only thing we have to go on, is minor league history a valid indicator to translate (project) into major league success (real numbers)? I don't think it is. Now it may earn that kid a "shot or serious look-see obviously.

But I get the opinion that we'll take any option right now, even a Denorfria, to get Jr out of CF.

The question GAC becomes how do you define a shot? 100 AB is not a shot. 300 AB is a shot. 600 AB is a real shot.

While bats may or may not translate, gloves certainly do. Deno could put up a .700 OPS and his defense would still make him a better option in CF than Junior. And besides, we need a RF and Freel isn't that great offensively when his speed is doing as much harm as good. If either Freel or Deno is in the OF, Junior should be in RF and that guy should be in CF.

Cyclone792
01-09-2007, 09:07 PM
And while it may be the only thing we have to go on, is minor league history a valid indicator to translate (project) into major league success (real numbers)? I don't think it is.

Performance at the major league level can be predicted fairly well by performance at the minor league level. IIRC, in the mid 80s James was one of the first people to uncover this, but it's been well-researched since then. It's precisely why organizations such as Baseball Prospectus even bother with MLEs. If the source data wasn't useful, the MLEs wouldn't be useful.

GAC
01-09-2007, 09:23 PM
The question GAC becomes how do you define a shot? 100 AB is not a shot. 300 AB is a shot. 600 AB is a real shot.

Oh I agree that what we saw last year was not a valid indicator. He needs to be given at least 300 ABs. You have to have a starting point with any young player.


While bats may or may not translate, gloves certainly do. Deno could put up a .700 OPS and his defense would still make him a better option in CF than Junior. And besides, we need a RF and Freel isn't that great offensively when his speed is doing as much harm as good. If either Freel or Deno is in the OF, Junior should be in RF and that guy should be in CF.

But here is also a valid point. If Deno gets the opportunity, then that means far more diminished playing time for Freel. If Deno puts up a .700 OPS, which is unacceptable to me regardless of the defensive "trade-off", then are we now losing even more offense from this '07 squad? Who now is our lead-off guy with Freel seeing far less time in the lineup? It just seems we may be willing to accept/losing even more offensive production just to get Jr out of CF.

And that is my concern. It's not that I don't want Jr moved; but that we are trading off even more offense (run production) in the process, in order to accomplish it.

edabbs44
01-09-2007, 09:43 PM
But here is also a valid point. If Deno gets the opportunity, then that means far more diminished playing time for Freel. If Deno puts up a .700 OPS, which is unacceptable to me regardless of the defensive "trade-off", then are we now losing even more offense from this '07 squad? Who now is our lead-off guy with Freel seeing far less time in the lineup? It just seems we may be willing to accept/losing even more offensive production just to get Jr out of CF.

And that is my concern. It's not that I don't want Jr moved; but that we are trading off even more offense (run production) in the process, in order to accomplish it.

Freel plays for Jr vs LHPs. Griffey had 160 PAs last year vs lefties. .204/.256/.415. Freel vs LHPs: .303/.424/.413.

For those non-math majors, Ryan P Freel had a SLG of 2 points lower than Ken Griffey Jr vs LHPs in 2006.

IMO, that's roughly 160 wasted plate appearances for Jr.

It doesn't matter what his name is. When you put up numbers like that, it's time to take a seat. Especially when you are a liability in the field.

Then, by giving rests to Phillips, EdE, Dunn and Deno, they can scrape up enough ABs to make Freel happy and for him to remain effective.

mbgrayson
01-09-2007, 09:54 PM
One other interesting note on Denorfia. When you closely study his minor league stats, you will notice a nice improvement each successive year he stays at the same level.

AVG/OBP/SLG
2003 Potomac(A+) .236/.317/.304
2004 Potomac(A+) .312/.416/.532

2004 Chattanooga(AA) .249/.340/.394
2005 Chattanooga(AA) .330/.391/.564

2005 Louisville (AAA) .310/.391/.505
2006 Louisville (AAA) .349/.409/.484

This shows that Chris Denorfia is a player who can adapt to each new league and improve. He is 26. If he can make those kind of adjustments with the Reds in 2007, we are in for a treat.

On the issue of Denorfia vs. Freel; I like Freel's style of play alot. However, he wears down. He does best as a supersub player, filling in all over the field to give guys a rest, or to sub for an injured player. That gives us way more flexibility than with him as an every day player at one position. Freel is also 5 years older than Denorfia....

All we are saying, is give Chris a chance!

toledodan
01-10-2007, 01:14 AM
One other interesting note on Denorfia. When you closely study his minor league stats, you will notice a nice improvement each successive year he stays at the same level.

AVG/OBP/SLG
2003 Potomac(A+) .236/.317/.304
2004 Potomac(A+) .312/.416/.532

2004 Chattanooga(AA) .249/.340/.394
2005 Chattanooga(AA) .330/.391/.564

2005 Louisville (AAA) .310/.391/.505
2006 Louisville (AAA) .349/.409/.484

This shows that Chris Denorfia is a player who can adapt to each new league and improve. He is 26. If he can make those kind of adjustments with the Reds in 2007, we are in for a treat.

On the issue of Denorfia vs. Freel; I like Freel's style of play alot. However, he wears down. He does best as a supersub player, filling in all over the field to give guys a rest, or to sub for an injured player. That gives us way more flexibility than with him as an every day player at one position. Freel is also 5 years older than Denorfia....

All we are saying, is give Chris a chance!


nice find. numbers don't lie and it shows he can improve.

WVRedsFan
01-10-2007, 01:43 AM
What does JR still bring to the table in CF besides his name?

Its certainly not range.

Uh...HR's, RBI's, runs.

Oh, I forgot. We're about defense. That why we have the world's supply of middle relievers and no one to play first or right field who can drive the ball.

Yeah, scrappy but no pop. That's the Reds these days and with our stellar pitching staff, it must be the way to go. Yeah.

Jpup
01-10-2007, 01:56 AM
In Sept/Oct:

Freel: .208/.311/.302
Denorfia: .352/.407/.463

The stats have spoken?

very small sample size. Freel is the better player right now. If you don't want to try and win, then hand the job to Deno. While I like the kid, he hasn't proved anything above AAA. Give him a chance, but you can't let Freel sit to do it.

Ron Madden
01-10-2007, 05:46 AM
Let Chris Denorfia play everyday and he will prove two things.

1. Denorfia is the Best defensive OF on the 25 man roster.
2. Denorfia can and will hit major league pitching.

With all that being said.

It wouldn't surprise me if WK trades Freel or Deno before Opening Day.

edabbs44
01-10-2007, 06:16 AM
very small sample size. Freel is the better player right now. If you don't want to try and win, then hand the job to Deno. While I like the kid, he hasn't proved anything above AAA. Give him a chance, but you can't let Freel sit to do it.

Who sits then? Someone has to.

And personally, this team will not win anything this season. So I'd rather see Deno get the shot and they try and trade Freel. But that would make too much sense.

Marc D
01-10-2007, 10:35 AM
Let Chris Denorfia play everyday and he will prove two things.

1. Denorfia is the Best defensive OF on the 25 man roster.
2. Denorfia can and will hit major league pitching.

With all that being said.

It wouldn't surprise me if WK trades Freel or Deno before Opening Day.


My thoughts exactly.

Keep the old, injury prone, expensive guy who's way down the backside of his career and isn't a goood defender anymore in CF and hitting 3rd. Trade a younger, cheaper, better defender that still has upside for a midling prospect or dime a dozen middle reliever(who's probably hurt).

I expect nothing less of WK and Narron.

WVRedsFan
01-10-2007, 10:43 AM
Let Chris Denorfia play everyday and he will prove two things.

1. Denorfia is the Best defensive OF on the 25 man roster.
2. Denorfia can and will hit major league pitching.

With all that being said.

It wouldn't surprise me if WK trades Freel or Deno before Opening Day.


The romance that Jerry and Wayne have going will result in Denorfia being traded if anyone. It's that scrappy vet thing. I would hope he would trade Freel, but I don't expect either to go with our lack of outfielders and the situation with Junior.

Team Clark
01-10-2007, 11:31 AM
nice find. numbers don't lie and it shows he can improve.

He not only improves but he excels. Making adjustments is very difficult in Professional Baseball. Hard work, dedication and perfect practice gets results. Deno will turn out just fine.

Topcat
01-10-2007, 12:36 PM
He not only improves but he excels. Making adjustments is very difficult in Professional Baseball. Hard work, dedication and perfect practice gets results. Deno will turn out just fine.

Playing for who though TC ? Being realistic the Red's are not contenders this year. So the question becomes when do you turn the lineup over to the people who will be here when we become contenders ?

TOBTTReds
01-10-2007, 12:38 PM
In Sept/Oct:

Freel: .208/.311/.302
Denorfia: .352/.407/.463

The stats have spoken?

Ahhhh. Just another feather in the "Freel needs rest" cap. btw, I'm wearing that cap. After a long season and playing more games in the OF (109) than ever before, he hit a wall.

Team Clark
01-10-2007, 04:00 PM
Playing for who though TC ? Being realistic the Red's are not contenders this year. So the question becomes when do you turn the lineup over to the people who will be here when we become contenders ?

Excellent question. I'd hate to see Deno leave. Then again if he can help fetch a solid 15 game winner.... I'm all Kearns. (Ears)



Ahhhh. Just another feather in the "Freel needs rest" cap. btw, I'm wearing that cap. After a long season and playing more games in the OF (109) than ever before, he hit a wall.

I sang that tune for so long on here I lost my voice. All I ever heard was how wrong I was, blah blah blah... If you don't take care of your body, you stay out night after night (drinking) and try to play at the Big League level you will wear out. I don't care who you are. Freel reminded me of Chris Stynes in that regard. 120 games was his limit. In reality he was only productive for about 90-100. (In the years he was actually a platoon player or starter) Don't get me wrong I still want Ryan Freel on my team. When he's hot he can really give your team a boost.

Great article on ESPN about Justin Morneau getting himself together and making the commitment necessary to become something great in this game. Someone should show that article to Dunn. You could easily just switch the names in the article. Commitment, preparation, self awareness and dedication.

RANDY IN INDY
01-10-2007, 06:02 PM
The game inside the game.:beerme:

Ltlabner
01-10-2007, 06:10 PM
I sang that tune for so long on here I lost my voice. All I ever heard was how wrong I was, blah blah blah... If you don't take care of your body, you stay out night after night (drinking) and try to play at the Big League level you will wear out. I don't care who you are. Freel reminded me of Chris Stynes in that regard. 120 games was his limit. In reality he was only productive for about 90-100. (In the years he was actually a platoon player or starter) Don't get me wrong I still want Ryan Freel on my team. When he's hot he can really give your team a boost.

Is that a hypothetica situation TC, or does that closely mirror the truth?

gonelong
01-10-2007, 08:13 PM
Is that a hypothetica situation TC, or does that closely mirror the truth?

How much less effective are you at work when you are hung-over or didn't get enough sleep? 10%? Most of us have to concentrate a fraction of what these guys do on a daily basis, and if they drop 10% in effectiveness (Say .365 OBP to .328) you go from productive to putrid.

A few benders during the season shouldn't have too much effect, but consistent partying on top of travel, long days in the sun, etc. ... that'd have to have an affect.

Now on the other hand, I can go for weeks on a handful of hours of sleep a night with a few benders tossed in. Cut 1/2 hour of sleep from my wife for a night or give her a 1/2 dozen beers and she is worthless the next day. Its going to affect some more than others.

GL

Ltlabner
01-10-2007, 08:18 PM
How much less effective are you at work when you are hung-over or didn't get enough sleep?

I wasn't questioning the effects of a wild lifestyle on a ballplayers performance. I was asking if his example of Ryan Freel was mearly a hypothetical situation, or a fact that he was out partying regularly and not taking care of his body.

Team Clark
01-10-2007, 09:32 PM
Is that a hypothetica situation TC, or does that closely mirror the truth?

How many people on this board have hung out with Freel, or other Reds for that matter, in Covington or Main St and given a pretty clear description of what condition they were in?? There used to be a ton of pics on the RZ Picture forum. Freel can't even drive on the right side of the street on his way home. (From his arrest report) These guys live a great lifestyle and should not by any means be expected to live like Monks. There are always a few that never know when to quit. It saps them of their talent over time. Ask Mickey Mantle how that works out.

GAC
01-11-2007, 09:01 AM
Freel plays for Jr vs LHPs. Griffey had 160 PAs last year vs lefties. .204/.256/.415. Freel vs LHPs: .303/.424/.413.

For those non-math majors, Ryan P Freel had a SLG of 2 points lower than Ken Griffey Jr vs LHPs in 2006.

IMO, that's roughly 160 wasted plate appearances for Jr.

If those are wasted plate appearances by Jr, then why aren't they wasted PA's by Freel with a slightly lower SLG% versus LHers? What advantage are you gaining by playing Freel versus lefties over Jr? Or are you looking at it from an OB% perspective.... .424 (Freel) versus .256 (Griffey).

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2007, 11:09 AM
How many people on this board have hung out with Freel, or other Reds for that matter, in Covington or Main St and given a pretty clear description of what condition they were in?? There used to be a ton of pics on the RZ Picture forum. Freel can't even drive on the right side of the street on his way home. (From his arrest report) These guys live a great lifestyle and should not by any means be expected to live like Monks. There are always a few that never know when to quit. It saps them of their talent over time. Ask Mickey Mantle how that works out.

Mantle thought that he had no chance of living past 40 based on his family history. He decided to live it up while he had the chance.

Team Clark
01-11-2007, 02:30 PM
Mantle thought that he had no chance of living past 40 based on his family history. He decided to live it up while he had the chance.

True....and he was wrong. How weird is that? I loved the HBO piece they did on Mickey and his family. I still have it on my TiVo. Mickey is definitely someone I wish I had met.

edabbs44
01-11-2007, 02:47 PM
If those are wasted plate appearances by Jr, then why aren't they wasted PA's by Freel with a slightly lower SLG% versus LHers? What advantage are you gaining by playing Freel versus lefties over Jr? Or are you looking at it from an OB% perspective.... .424 (Freel) versus .256 (Griffey).

OBP and AVG.

Freel makes his money when he gets on base.
Jr makes his money through his power.

If Freel can provide power even in the same ballpark as Griffey while showing a much better OBP and defense, then what are they actually losing?

Additionally, Griffey would benefit from consistent time off. I don't care what his name is, how much money he makes, how many HRs he has hit, etc etc etc. He is old, fragile and not the superstar he once was. If they are serious about winning, he will play 120 games this season in RF. If they want to be a bunch of patsies, Jerry will hit him 3rd and put him in CF each game as we hear about how Jr is struggling b/c he needs some time until his hand gets back into game shape.

Cyclone792
01-11-2007, 02:49 PM
If those are wasted plate appearances by Jr, then why aren't they wasted PA's by Freel with a slightly lower SLG% versus LHers? What advantage are you gaining by playing Freel versus lefties over Jr? Or are you looking at it from an OB% perspective.... .424 (Freel) versus .256 (Griffey).

That OBP differential is massive. Here's Freel and Griffey's splits vs. LHP for the last three seasons combined ...

Freel: .278/.401/.384/.786; RC/27 of ~6.4
Griffey: .232/.300/.461/.761; RC/27 of ~4.6

It seems difficult to imagine, but over the last three seasons Ryan Freel has been a more productive offensive player against left-handed pitching. Obviously that's not even close to being the case against righties, but there's something to be said about playing Freel over Griffey against lefties.

Also, it should be noted that even with Denorfia starting regularly in center field in 2007 and Freel playing the role of "super sub," Freel could still get an excellent chunk of plate appearances in that role if it was managed effectively. Consider ...

200 PAs in RF - platoon with Griffey vs. LHP.
100 PAs in CF - give Denorfia approx. one game off per week.
50 PAs at 3B - give Encarnacion approx. one game off every other week.
50 PAs at 2B - give Phillips approx. one game off every other week.
100 PAs in LF - give Dunn approx. one game off every other week, plus Dunn can play 1B once every other week instead of Hatteberg/Conine with Freel starting in LF for those games.

That's 500 plate appearances right there in a "super sub" role, and that's even assuming Griffey stays healthy for the duration of the season. Honestly, I wouldn't have any problem whatsoever with that type of plan; I'm a big believer that regular starting position players need occasional rest. Dunn, Encarnacion, and Phillips would still end up starting around 150 games for the season, which isn't bad, and Denorfia would start 135-140 games.

And yes, I also do believe Griffey would benefit from a rest standpoint too when factoring in games off against lefty starting pitching.

Cyclone792
01-11-2007, 03:05 PM
True....and he was wrong. How weird is that? I loved the HBO piece they did on Mickey and his family. I still have it on my TiVo. Mickey is definitely someone I wish I had met.

IMO, Mickey Mantle is one of the 10 greatest position players ever to play the game. It seems odd to say this about a legendary New York Yankee, but he really seems to be underrated now by most fans and historians.

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2007, 08:15 PM
I agree. It would have been interesting to see what his career would have been like if he hadn't torn up his knee early on that sprinkler. His times to first base out of the box were something. I believe you are right to say that he is probably underated now.