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westofyou
01-10-2007, 10:50 AM
Part of this years gamble is a gamble that Ken Griffey Jr. will produce at the bat better then last year and in the field (hopefully not the middle of it) Coming off his worst OPS since the 80's if Griffey makes it to the plate 300 times this year he'll be the 26th man in Reds history to log that many plate appearances at that age.

The gamble is a big one, especially since he has a long injury history as a Red, he plays a demanding position (or insists on it) and his on base percentage took a hit of mammoth proportions last year.

Here's the list of players in Reds history who topped 300 PA's at age 37 or older. The far right column lists the Runs they created over the average at their position. The good news is a player at age 37 has a greater chance of staying within sight of their peers. The bad news is it gets worse after that and that should include Griffey and any other oldster that compiles too many at bats.

The bottom list is just the men who played outfield.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
AGE >= 37

AGE YEAR AGE AVG OBA SLG RC/G RCAP
1 Pete Rose 1985 44 .264 .395 .319 4.99 -1
T2 Barry Larkin 2004 40 .289 .352 .419 4.85 7
T2 Dummy Hoy 1902 40 .290 .389 .380 6.31 1
T2 Jake Daubert 1924 40 .281 .331 .368 3.97 -19
T5 Bid McPhee 1899 39 .279 .360 .370 5.82 8
T5 Dave Concepcion 1987 39 .319 .377 .384 5.09 2
T5 Sparky Adams 1934 39 .252 .307 .317 3.71 -3
T5 Jake Daubert 1923 39 .292 .349 .398 4.75 -14
T9 Bid McPhee 1898 38 .249 .341 .346 5.12 1
T9 Edd Roush 1931 38 .271 .308 .338 3.65 -17
T9 Kiki Cuyler 1937 38 .271 .333 .320 3.67 -9
T9 Dave Concepcion 1986 38 .260 .314 .344 3.51 0
T9 Sparky Adams 1933 38 .262 .320 .310 3.58 -9
T9 Barry Larkin 2002 38 .245 .305 .367 3.66 -10
T9 Jake Daubert 1922 38 .336 .395 .492 6.66 24
T16 Bid McPhee 1897 37 .301 .386 .408 6.59 8
T16 Pete Rose 1978 37 .302 .362 .421 5.70 18
T16 Kiki Cuyler 1936 37 .326 .380 .453 6.95 28
T16 Dave Concepcion 1985 37 .252 .314 .330 3.10 -9
T16 Tommy Leach 1915 37 .224 .338 .275 3.29 -3
T16 George Crowe 1958 37 .275 .348 .400 5.03 -10
T16 Tommy Corcoran 1906 37 .207 .242 .249 2.15 -30
T16 Jake Daubert 1921 37 .306 .341 .399 4.65 -9
T16 Gee Walker 1945 37 .253 .289 .320 3.22 -22
T16 Tom Daly 1903 37 .293 .332 .407 5.34 6


AGE YEAR AGE AVG OBA SLG RC/G RCAP
1 Dummy Hoy 1902 40 .290 .389 .380 6.31 1
T2 Edd Roush 1931 38 .271 .308 .338 3.65 -17
T2 Kiki Cuyler 1937 38 .271 .333 .320 3.67 -9
T4 Kiki Cuyler 1936 37 .326 .380 .453 6.95 28
T4 Tommy Leach 1915 37 .224 .338 .275 3.29 -3
T4 Gee Walker 1945 37 .253 .289 .320 3.22 -22

princeton
01-10-2007, 11:19 AM
it wasn't this year's gamble.

It was a gamble that we lost many years ago

westofyou
01-10-2007, 11:22 AM
it wasn't this year's gamble.

It was a gamble that we lost many years ago

True... The Cubs made the same gamble this year, 54 Million for Soriano from age 37-39.

Ouch.

flyer85
01-10-2007, 11:37 AM
The fact that Jr is seemingly going to play CF just shows the Reds aren't really serious about winning.

BRM
01-10-2007, 11:43 AM
The fact that Jr is seemingly going to play CF just shows the Reds aren't really serious about winning.

At the very least it would show they are very good at talking out of both sides of their mouth. Improving the defense is a priority...by the way, Junior is our centerfielder for 2007. You just can't take the first part seriously when the second part hasn't been addressed.

redsupport
01-10-2007, 11:48 AM
any wager with griffey is going to lose, he should have quit already, he has dragged the team down its nadir

TOBTTReds
01-10-2007, 11:51 AM
T2 Jake Daubert 1924 40 .281 .331 .368 3.97 -19
T5 Jake Daubert 1923 39 .292 .349 .398 4.75 -14
T9 Jake Daubert 1922 38 .336 .395 .492 6.66 24
T16 Jake Daubert 1921 37 .306 .341 .399 4.65 -9



Appearantly Jake Daubert was juicing. Maybe he started 'roids. His slugging jumped almost 100 points in 1922, then all the way back down in '23.

Maybe Jr. will have a 1922 esque resurgance.

Dom Heffner
01-10-2007, 11:53 AM
True... The Cubs made the same gamble this year, 54 Million for Soriano from age 37-39.

Is Soriano that old? Wow.

Great post, WOY. Question: You think that Cuyler guy is still around? And if so, would the Reds sign him? I know redsupport would want him.

Joseph
01-10-2007, 11:55 AM
I suppose it's wrong to hope he's 1936 Kiki Cuyler.

dfs
01-10-2007, 11:59 AM
Is Soriano that old? Wow.


The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.

Dom Heffner
01-10-2007, 12:00 PM
I suppose it's wrong to hope he's 1936 Kiki Cuyler.

With this team, hope is all we have.

westofyou
01-10-2007, 12:01 PM
Appearantly Jake Daubert was juicing. Maybe he started 'roids. His slugging jumped almost 100 points in 1922, then all the way back down in '23.

Maybe Jr. will have a 1922 esque resurgance.

Jakes Splits by park 21-22



Park G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SH SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PHI09 11 40 5 11 3 1 0 9 3 0 0 3 2 1 .275 .326 .400
STL07 11 46 4 9 1 0 1 5 2 0 0 1 2 1 .196 .229 .283
PIT06 11 43 2 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 5 0 0 .279 .295 .279
NYC14 9 30 3 9 1 1 0 3 2 1 0 4 0 0 .300 .344 .400
CIN07 72 272 42 86 9 9 1 37 14 8 3 16 5 3 .316 .356 .426
NYC15 9 37 7 14 1 1 0 7 1 1 0 1 1 1 .378 .395 .459
CHI11 9 36 6 15 3 0 0 2 1 1 0 3 2 0 .417 .432 .500
BOS08 4 12 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 .167 .167 .167



Park G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
PHI09 11 42 16 15 2 1 2 6 7 0i 2 1 2 0i 0i 0i 0i 3 0 .357 .460 .595
STL07 11 44 16 17 1 0 3 5 6 0i 1 0 2 0i 0i 0i 0i 1 1 .386 .460 .614
PIT06 11 47 7 16 0 2 0 3 2 0i 0 0 1 1i 0i 2i 0i 0 2 .340 .360 .426
NYC14 11 44 6 14 1 2 1 5 2 1i 3 1 1 0i 0i 1i 0i 2 1 .318 .362 .500
CIN07 79 299 50 102 3 13 4 35 32 0i 11 1 14 2i 0i 2i 1i 7 7 .341 .404 .478
NYC15 11 44 7 11 2 1 2 4 3 0i 1 0 3 0i 0i 5i 1i 1 3 .250 .298 .477
CHI11 11 49 8 21 6 1 0 6 1 0i 1 0 1 0i 0i 0i 1i 0 3 .429 .440 .592
BOS08 11 41 4 9 0 2 0 4 3 0i 2 0 4 0i 0i 0i 0i 0 0 .220 .273 .317

Dom Heffner
01-10-2007, 12:02 PM
The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.


Okay. I was too lazy to look it up but I was thinking that seemed old for him now to be stealing and hitting for power.

I'm in the minority but I think it was a good signing. I'd love to have him in Cincy.

westofyou
01-10-2007, 12:02 PM
You think that Cuyler guy is still around? And if so, would the Reds sign him? I know redsupport would want him.

Kiki Cuyler was known as the fastest player in MLB in the late 20's and early 30's. When he was about 40 or so he had a son who wanted to take a try at playing ball. Kiki didn't think that it was a good idea and couldn't convince him otherwise. So he made him a deal, they would have a foot race and if the son lost he'd give up the dream and get on with his life.

Apparently Kiki smoked his arse, by about 15 yards or so.

He had told his son prior, I had to quit playing because I was not as fast as once was.

Harold Cuyler moved on.

westofyou
01-10-2007, 12:08 PM
The contract is that long. The cubs are clearly gambling that prices will raise to the point where he won't be considered that extreme an expense.

Quite the gamble, in MLB history 20,740 players have had at 300 PA's or more in a season, only 611 of them were 37 or older. That's .029%, the house wins most of those bets.

TRF
01-10-2007, 12:13 PM
Suppose for a moment that Jr. bucks the odds. He has a healthy 2007 AND 2008. He puts on a power display, 40-45 HR's both years. That would give him close to 650 career HR's Would you pick up his 2009 option?

Remember, baseball isn't a vacuum. IF Jr. were to accomplish this, it puts him in spitting distance of 700 HR's There is some good long term PR to be gained from letting him finish his career in red. Similar but different to letting Larkin retire a Red. The media begins to follow him around, and even though Jr.'s rep with the press is rocky, it ain't Bonds' rocky.

Now of course I fully expect a half a dozen posts telling me Jr. won't be healthy for the next two years. Please remember I did say "Suppose."

Joseph
01-10-2007, 12:13 PM
Quite the gamble, in MLB history 20,740 players have had at 300 PA's or more in a season, only 611 of them were 37 or older. That's .029%, the house wins most of those bets.

Looks like the Freel vs Denorfia debate won't rage on too long.

Cyclone792
01-10-2007, 12:16 PM
Here's an interesting look ...


Hall of Fame Center Fielders
Career vs. Age 37 Season

Career Age 37 Age 37
Player OPS+ Season OPS+ % Difference Season PA

Ashburn 111 DNP DNP DNP
Averill 133 102 23.31% lower 425
Cobb 167 125 25.15% lower 726
Combs 126 DNP DNP DNP
DiMaggio 155 DNP DNP DNP
Duffy 122 148 21.31% higher 59
Hamilton 141 DNP DNP DNP
Mantle 172 DNP DNP DNP
Mays 156 157 0.60% higher 573
Puckett 124 DNP DNP DNP
Roush* 126 DNP DNP DNP
Snider 140 75 46.43% lower 189
Speaker 158 166 5.06% higher 518
Waner** 99 DNP DNP DNP
Wilson 144 DNP DNP DNP

Griffey 141 ??? ??? ???

* Edd Roush had 400 PAs in his age 38 season.
** Lloyd Waner had 33 PAs in his age 38 season and 20 PAs in his age 39 season.

Of 15 Hall of Fame center fielders, nine didn't even play during their age 37 season, and seven of them were already retired. Of the six that did play, only Willie Mays and Tris Speaker had seasons that compared favorably with the rest of their respective careers. Ty Cobb had a very fine season, but it was well below his earlier established level of play. Earl Averill was an average hitter at age 38, Duke Snider was hanging on during the final season of his career, and Hugh Duffy had only 59 plate appearances.

gonelong
01-10-2007, 12:45 PM
With the availability of trainers, nutrition, supplements, etc. I don't know that 37 now is anything like 37 a few decades back.

In Jr's case his legs are 55 so that probably doesn't apply to him at this stage.

GL

RedFanAlways1966
01-10-2007, 01:16 PM
Of 15 Hall of Fame center fielders, nine didn't even play during their age 37 season, and seven of them were already retired. Of the six that did play, only Willie Mays and Tris Speaker had seasons that compared favorably with the rest of their respective careers. Ty Cobb had a very fine season, but it was well below his earlier established level of play. Earl Averill was an average hitter at age 38, Duke Snider was hanging on during the final season of his career, and Hugh Duffy had only 59 plate appearances.

I remember stating this same sort of thing back when Barry Larkin was about 37 and was angry b/c the REDS were looking to replace him at SS (or make him a not-full-time player). Strange how these things tend to come back from time to time.

westofyou
01-10-2007, 01:22 PM
With the availability of trainers, nutrition, supplements, etc. I don't know that 37 now is anything like 37 a few decades back.

In Jr's case his legs are 55 so that probably doesn't apply to him at this stage.

GL
True, 15% of the 611 37 year old players have played since the strike, 47% of them had an above average RCAP

Check out #54 and #58 for the RCAP


AT BATS YEAR AB BPA OBA SLG AGE RCAP
1 Paul Molitor 1996 660 .493 .390 .468 39 3
2 Craig Biggio 2004 633 .505 .337 .469 38 -4
3 Steve Finley 2004 628 .514 .333 .490 39 6
4 Craig Biggio 2005 590 .510 .325 .468 39 11
5 Luis Gonzalez 2006 586 .481 .352 .444 38 -14
6 Omar Vizquel 2006 579 .450 .361 .389 39 7
7 Otis Nixon 1997 576 .437 .337 .318 38 -11
8 Omar Vizquel 2005 568 .418 .341 .350 38 0
9 Eddie Murray 1996 566 .443 .327 .417 40 -30
10 Rafael Palmeiro 2003 561 .564 .359 .508 38 11
11 Rafael Palmeiro 2004 550 .488 .359 .436 39 -2
12 Craig Biggio 2006 548 .442 .306 .422 40 -13
13 Rickey Henderson 1998 542 .537 .376 .347 39 10
14 Paul Molitor 1997 538 .467 .351 .435 40 0
15 Tony Phillips 1997 534 .476 .392 .391 38 6
16 Paul Molitor 1995 525 .487 .350 .423 38 -8
17 Fred McGriff 2002 523 .533 .353 .505 38 8
18 Jeff Conine 2004 521 .451 .340 .432 38 -14
19 Steve Finley 2003 516 .553 .363 .500 38 14
20 Brett Butler 1995 513 .476 .377 .376 38 15
21 Paul O'Neill 2001 510 .503 .330 .459 38 -4
22 Barry Larkin 2002 507 .408 .305 .367 38 -10
T23 Paul Molitor 1998 502 .405 .335 .382 41 -24
T23 Gary Gaetti 1997 502 .416 .305 .404 38 -22
25 Wade Boggs 1996 501 .438 .389 .389 38 3
26 Edgar Martinez 2003 497 .537 .406 .489 40 26
27 Andres Galarraga 2000 494 .540 .369 .526 39 1
28 Jeff Conine 2006 489 .422 .325 .399 40 -16
29 Edgar Martinez 2004 486 .424 .342 .385 41 -15
30 Cal Ripken 2001 477 .356 .276 .361 40 -17
31 Chili Davis 1999 476 .502 .366 .445 39 2
32 Edgar Martinez 2001 470 .601 .423 .543 38 47
33 Kenny Lofton 2006 469 .475 .360 .403 39 2
34 Frank Thomas 2006 466 .587 .381 .545 38 18
35 Tony Gwynn 1998 461 .505 .364 .501 38 17
36 Harold Baines 1997 452 .488 .375 .458 38 10
37 Otis Nixon 1998 448 .435 .361 .344 39 -8
38 Rickey Henderson 1999 438 .585 .423 .466 40 24
39 Eddie Murray 1995 436 .533 .375 .516 39 17
40 Wade Boggs 1998 435 .431 .348 .400 40 1
41 Gary Gaetti 1998 434 .521 .356 .495 39 9
T42 Harold Baines 1999 430 .547 .387 .533 40 12
T42 Julio Franco 1997 430 .431 .369 .360 38 -12
44 Moises Alou 2005 427 .557 .400 .518 38 26
45 Steve Finley 2006 426 .454 .320 .394 41 -5
46 Rickey Henderson 2000 420 .453 .368 .305 41 -13
47 Tony Gwynn 1999 411 .487 .381 .477 39 6
48 Jeff Kent 2006 407 .522 .385 .477 38 19
T49 Tony Phillips 1999 406 .523 .362 .433 40 7
T49 Steve Finley 2005 406 .408 .271 .374 40 -13
51 Rickey Henderson 1997 403 .528 .400 .342 38 8
52 Benito Santiago 2003 401 .431 .329 .424 38 2
53 Andres Galarraga 2001 399 .476 .326 .459 40 -7
T54 Barry Bonds 2003 390 .818 .529 .749 38 112
T54 Devon White 2001 390 .529 .343 .459 38 13
56 Joe Carter 1998 388 .476 .304 .461 38 -8
57 Rickey Henderson 2001 379 .488 .366 .351 42 -15
58 Barry Bonds 2004 373 .882 .609 .812 39 147
59 Rafael Palmeiro 2005 369 .481 .339 .447 40 2
T60 Kenny Lofton 2005 367 .509 .392 .420 38 15
T60 Barry Bonds 2006 367 .647 .454 .545 41 37
62 Ken Caminiti 2001 356 .450 .312 .407 38 -10
63 Wade Boggs 1997 353 .454 .373 .397 39 13
64 Tim Wallach 1996 352 .404 .297 .369 38 -15
T65 Matt Stairs 2006 348 .463 .328 .420 38 -18
T65 Todd Zeile 2004 348 .395 .319 .356 38 -28
67 Barry Larkin 2004 346 .432 .352 .419 40 7
68 Moises Alou 2006 345 .561 .352 .571 39 13
T69 B.J. Surhoff 2004 343 .448 .365 .420 39 2
T69 Brett Butler 1997 343 .409 .363 .324 40 -2
71 Randy Velarde 2001 342 .475 .356 .424 38 7
72 Julio Franco 2002 338 .420 .357 .382 43 -11
73 Jeff Conine 2005 335 .435 .374 .403 39 -4
74 Cal Ripken 1999 332 .556 .368 .584 38 22
75 Edgar Martinez 2002 328 .555 .403 .485 39 20
76 Reggie Sanders 2006 325 .439 .304 .425 38 -23
77 Tim Raines 1998 321 .474 .395 .383 38 2
78 Julio Franco 2004 320 .472 .378 .441 45 -3
79 B.J. Surhoff 2003 319 .442 .353 .404 38 1
80 Larry Walker 2005 315 .545 .384 .502 38 12
T81 Cal Ripken 2000 309 .460 .310 .453 39 -2
T81 Mark McLemore 2003 309 .378 .318 .314 38 -12
83 Ruben Sierra 2004 307 .476 .296 .456 38 -10
84 B.J. Surhoff 2005 303 .357 .282 .356 40 -11
85 Willie McGee 1997 300 .458 .347 .420 38 0
86 Mark Grace 2002 298 .457 .351 .386 38 -10
87 Fred McGriff 2003 297 .462 .322 .428 39 -7
T88 Harold Baines 1998 293 .451 .369 .451 39 -3
T88 Jim Eisenreich 1997 293 .405 .345 .372 38 -4
T90 Wade Boggs 1999 292 .404 .377 .377 41 1
T90 Andres Galarraga 2002 292 .437 .344 .394 41 -10
92 Harold Baines 2000 283 .463 .338 .417 41 -13
93 Tom Lampkin 2002 281 .436 .313 .367 38 3
94 Gary Gaetti 1999 280 .364 .260 .339 40 -28

Will M
01-10-2007, 01:54 PM
The problem is that the Reds, as a small market team, can't just eat Griffey's contract and acquire someone better. The Yankees, Red Sox, etc would do this but the Reds can't.

If I were the Reds Griffey would play RF vs righties and rest vs lefties.
He was terrible vs lefties in 2006.
He would be replaced in blow outs and in late innings defensively.
This way you could maximize whatever value he has left.

reds44
01-10-2007, 05:36 PM
I have no problem with Junior playing RF. He can't play CF though.

Willy
01-10-2007, 08:48 PM
any wager with griffey is going to lose, he should have quit already, he has dragged the team down its nadir

:rolleyes:

Sorry, but I'm happy he hasn't retired.

No matter what I'm doing when the game is on, I stop everything and watch Griffey hit.

I want to be able to enjoy that for a few more years.

Cooper
01-11-2007, 09:15 AM
At this point, isn't it worth it if someone justs picks up his contract and we get nothing in return? Heck, i was thought we were there 2 years ago when Atlanta was looking at him. If a team offers to just carry the contract then you got to let him go and thank heavens you got some freedom to move financially (all this is based upon Mr. Griffey allowing for a trade).

Many folks have said it, but i think M2 was the first. Reds aren't serious about winning until Griffey is moved from CF. He's the pink elaphant in the room.

buckeyenut
01-11-2007, 02:11 PM
Quite frankly, I want Jr on this team. I need Jr. on this team. I just don't want him in CF. I want him in LF or 1B

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 02:15 PM
I dont want to see JR traded.... I just dont want to see him in CF anymore.

jojo
01-11-2007, 02:55 PM
IMHO, there is tremendous pressure on Griffey's bat in '07.

Here are mlb positional averages for 2006:
LF: .276/.348/.456 OPS: .804
CF: .267/.332/.425 OPS: .757
RF: .277/.345/.458 OPS: .803

Griffey:
'06: .252/.316/.486 OPS: .802

Griffey has morphed into one of the worst defensive center fielders in the game today due in part to deteriorated range. Few now argue that he should remain in center field. This is a valid concern because while, even with Griffey's better than average offensive numbers for a CFer, he really was approximately replacement level in '06 when factoring in his defense (VORP=16 and there isn't a defensive metric among the gold standards that thought he was better than -16 runs defensively). WOW. That sucks to even consider.

Unfortunately, moving Griffey to a corner in '07 probably won't be the boom most may be assuming. Given the higher offensive standards at the corner positions, Griffey's '06 would've made him simply average offensively as a corner outfielder. Even though those positions are easier to play than center, it's still difficult to envision Griffey being league average at either position defensively-especially given the wear and tear he'll endure over the course of the season. Considering both his offense and defense, Griffey has to have a serious rebound with the bat just to be league average-even if he changes positions. The chances of him being significantly better than a league average corner outfielder aren't promising IMHO given the way the defensive shift emasculated his BABIP and OBP last season. In fact things in '07 could turn really ugly.

Even best case scenario, he will be dramatically overpaid for his production. To be considered a good deal for the Reds, Griffey needs to be a 4 win player. Given his defense, there is absolutely no way his bat could be reasonably expected to be good enough for him to reach that level if he stays in center. Playing a corner he probably needs a VORP of 50-60 to compensate for his glove (i.e. Griffey of '05 needs to return). Thats alot to ask of a 37 year old body that is showing obvious signs of becoming increasingly fragile.

Griffey's defense isn't going to get better. Its vital that the Reds find a way to maximize his bat. IMHO, given the payroll they have committed to him, it's imperative that Griffey both moves to first base against traditional national league opponents to save his body and hide his glove and that he DH's during interleague play. If Griffey has to play in the outfield, i'd strongly consider a platoon situation where Freel gets the majority of at bats versus lefties.