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westofyou
01-11-2007, 11:50 AM
Despite what Cincinnati Reds manager Jerry Narron or most baseball experts say, Joe Nuxhall predicted last Thursday night (http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/01/05/hjn010507stag.html) the Reds’ starting rotation could well include Homer Bailey at the start of the 2007 season. Nuxhall was master of ceremonies at the 28th annual Knights of Columbus Sports Stag, held at the Father Butler Council in Hamilton.

“I’m saying right now, I think he’s going to be in the starting rotation,”

Nuxhall said of the 20-year-old Bailey, the Reds’ most promising prospect who was almost untouchable at Class AA Chattanooga last season.

I’m not going to waste time challenging that assertion, running stats or conversions for Bailey. But I will note that his 1.19 whip and 1.59 era in AA look good. I’ll also have to note that the praise comes from Joe Nuxhall a man who toed the mound of Crosley at the age of 15.

That lead me to ponder two things, one what kind of 16 year old gets to play major league ball, and two what does history tell us about 21 year old pitchers and the Reds?

I’ll break up the eras as thus

1876-1899. An era marked by really volatile player and franchise movement, when the game is unstable and weak Bill James said that there is usually a larger amount of younger players and ones that achieve success. It’s no big surprise that all but two of the players who have played major league ball at the ripe age of 16 or younger arrived during three distinct eras:


1. Pre-1900 - An era of multiple unsteady leagues and teams, youngest player is Fred Chapman a 14 year old who pitches for the Philadelphia A’s in 1887, at a distance of 50 feet, before the mound was installed.

2. World War 2 - Shortage of talent

3. Bonus Era - Era of bonus baby rules

The two dissenters were Jim Curry and Coonie Bank who each appeared in one game at the age of 16 in 1909.

Also note that the batters are often skill position players (catcher Coonie Blank) and shortstop (Alex George), in fact since the 19th century all the players who appeared in the game at the age of 16 or younger were either a pitcher of a skill position player.


GAMES YEAR G AGE
Frank Pearce 1876 1 16
Bill Bishop 1886 2 16
Mike Kilroy 1888 1 15
Fred Chapman 1887 1 14
Willie McGill 1890 24 16
Kid Keenan 1891 1 16
Joe Stanley 1897 1 16
Carl Scheib 1943 6 16
Rogers McKee 1943 4 16
Joe Nuxhall 1944 1 15
Jim Derrington 1956 1 16

YEAR AB AGE
Tommy Brown 1944 146 16
Leonidas Lee 1877 18 16
Milt Scott 1882 5 16
Piggy Ward 1883 5 16
Chick Carroll 1884 16 16
Joe Fogarty 1885 8 16
Tom Hess 1892 2 16
Jim Curry 1909 4 16
Coonie Blank 1909 2 16
Putsy Caballero 1944 4 16
Tommy Brown 1944 146 16
Alex George 1955 10 16

Alex George was the last 16 year old to get an at bat in MLB, he was a shortstop called up by the A’s in 1955, their first year in Kansas City, a year that saw them lose 91 games, when you lose 91 games your roster often has some weird appearances her and there. Jim Darrington is the last 16 years old to get an at bat in MLB. He was a bonus baby signing by the White Sox and had to spend the first two years of his career on the ML roster. He was out of the league by the age of 18.

As for the Reds they too have a long history of young pitchers flaming out and some doing well. Let’s look at the Reds 21 and under and see what their history looks like. We’ll keep it simple, innings pitched and RSAA (RSAA–Runs saved against average. It’s the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed.)

The Reds prove to have their largest group of pitchers under the age of 21 in the years prior to 1900, almost 70% of them pitched before the current distance of 60′ 6″ was instituted.


1876-1899

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Elmer Smith 1887 447.1 79 19
2 Billy Rhines 1890 401.1 78 21
3 Lee Viau 1888 387.2 13 21
4 Elmer Smith 1888 348.1 8 20
5 Noodles Hahn 1899 309 45 20
6 Larry McKeon 1885 290 16 19
7 Elmer Smith 1889 203 -20 21
8 Larry McKeon 1886 156 -31 20
9 Elmer Smith 1886 81.2 -4 18
10 John Weyhing 1888 65.2 13 19
11 Joe Murphy 1886 46 -8 19
12 Jesse Tannehill 1894 29 -6 19
13 Lem Cross 1893 21 -2 21
14 Brownie Foreman 1896 18 -24 20
15 Willie McGill 1892 17 -4 18
16 Mike Shea 1887 16.2 -5 20
17 Jimmy Peoples 1885 15 -14 21
T18 Dan Bickham 1886 9 0 21
T18 WildBill Widner 1887 9 0 20
T18 Percy Coleman 1898 9 1 21
21 Fred Blank 1894 8 1 20
22 Carney Flynn 1894 7.2 -10 19
23 Wiley Davis 1896 4.1 -2 20
24 Kid Baldwin 1885 4 -3 20
T25 Jeremiah Reardon 1886 2 -3 17
T25 Ted Conover 1889 2 -2 21

The next group is from 1900-1941, a pure pitching era in Cincinnati (aside from some brief years in the early 1900’s)

This group is mostly highlighted with a couple of Pete’s (Donahue and Schnieder) and Sea Lion Hall, one of the earlier relief type of pitcher. Born Carlos Clolo, “Charley” Hall was a thick-lipped man who resembled a sea lion I suppose.


You be the judge

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/photos/headshots/Hall_Charley.gif


1900-1941

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Pete Schneider 1917 342 22 21
2 Noodles Hahn 1900 311.1 3 21
3 Pete Schneider 1915 276 11 19
4 Pete Schneider 1916 274 -3 20
5 Pete Donohue 1922 242 20 21
6 Henry Thielman 1902 211 -4 21
7 Gene Schott 1935 159 -3 21
8 Roy Hitt 1907 153 -18 20
9 Pete Schneider 1914 144 2 18
10 Pete Donohue 1921 118 5 20
11 Sea Lion Hall 1906 95 -2 20
12 Jean Dubuc 1908 85 -3 19
13 Jean Dubuc 1909 71 -9 20
14 Sea Lion Hall 1907 68 -1 21
15 Jack Rowan 1908 49.1 3 21
16 Rip Vowinkel 1905 45 -5 20
17 Charlie Case 1901 27 -4 21
18 Dixie Davis 1912 26.2 1 21
19 Tom Cantwell 1909 22 2 20
20 Dick Scott 1901 21 -4 18
21 Chick Smith 1913 17.2 0 20
22 Ed Gerner 1919 17 0 21
23 Marty O'Toole 1908 15 0 19
24 Crese Heismann 1901 13.2 -4 21
25 Si Johnson 1928 10 -1 21
T26 Buck Hooker 1902 8 -1 21
T26 Pat Ragan 1909 8 -1 20
28 Chet Carmichael 1909 7 2 21
29 Bert Sincock 1908 4.2 -1 20
30 Bill Cramer 1912 2.1 1 21
31 Bill Doak 1912 2 0 21
T32 Tom Cantwell 1910 1 -2 21
T32 Pat Griffin 1914 1 -1 21
T32 Herman Pillette 1917 1 -2 21
T32 Eddie Tiemeyer 1906 1 0 21
T32 Rufe Meadows 1926 1 0 18

Note the RSAA for this group, is nothing to really write home about aside from the Pete’s over 20 showings.

The next group is a small sampling of the war years. From this group we get some youngsters, amongst them we see Joe Nuxhall’s famous appearance. But very few men over the age of 19


1942-1946

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Herm Wehmeier 1945 5 -5 18
2 Ewell Blackwell 1942 3 -1 19
T3 Joe Nuxhall 1944 1 -5 15
T3 Kent Peterson 1944 1 0 18
T3 Jake Eisenhart 1944 1 0 21

The next group is what I like to view as the Bonus Era, this era is when scouting was king and the goal was to bring home the best players, both the cheap and the rich. Baseball worried about the rich stocking up their farm systems with too many prospects, therefore they instituted a rule that the player would have to be carried on the major league roster for two tears. This is what Koufax did, as well as Harmon Killebrew. It worked for them others like Jim Darrington flamed out quick in the face of all that talent.


1947-1960

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Kent Peterson 1947 152 -9 21
2 Herm Wehmeier 1948 147 -28 21
3 Jim Maloney 1960 64 -6 20
4 Claude Osteen 1960 48 -7 20
5 Jay Hook 1957 10 0 20
6 Claude Osteen 1959 8 -2 19
7 Jim O'Toole 1958 7 2 21
8 Dave Skaugstad 1957 6 2 17
9 Claude Osteen 1957 4 1 17
10 Jay Hook 1958 3 -3 21
11 Herm Wehmeier 1947 1 0 20

Maloney and O’Toole were two of the larger Reds signings in the late 50’s. Osteen a local Cincinnati boy (Reading) was too nervous in Cincinnati and eventually was traded to Washington, who later used him to get the Adam Dunn of the 1960’s, Frank Howard. Osteen and Dave Skaugstad appeared at the age of 17 for the Reds in 1957, Skaugstad would never make it back.

Once again the appearance of 21 and younger doesn’t produce a star at that stage, nor any RSAA numbers that really help the team.

The next group will comprise the second deadball era, the 60’s and the 70’s were low scoring eras and with that usually comes young pitching.


1961-1980

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Gary Nolan 1967 227 27 19
2 Don Gullett 1971 218 16 20
3 Wayne Simpson 1970 176 23 21
4 Ross Grimsley 1971 161.1 -5 21
5 Gary Nolan 1968 150 18 20
6 Don Gullett 1972 135 -12 21
7 Gary Nolan 1969 109 0 21
T8 Billy McCool 1965 105 -7 20
T8 Billy McCool 1966 105 20 21
10 Frank Pastore 1979 95.1 -7 21
11 Jim Maloney 1961 95 -2 21
12 Billy McCool 1964 89 12 19
T13 Don Gullett 1970 78 15 19
T13 Tom Carroll 1974 78 -1 21
15 Mario Soto 1977 60.2 -10 20
16 Manny Sarmiento 1976 43.2 7 20
17 Milt Wilcox 1971 43.1 0 21
18 Manny Sarmiento 1977 40.1 7 21
19 Sammy Ellis 1962 28 -9 21
20 Milt Wilcox 1970 22.1 4 20
21 Mario Soto 1978 18 2 21
22 Claude Osteen 1961 0.1 0 21

If any group of young pitchers the Reds ever had stands out it’s this group, a perfect mix of the Bobby Mattick signings and the draft work of both Jim McGlothian and later Bob Howsam. The above list tells me one thing for sure. Gary Nolan was a stud, if Homer could throw a season like Nolan’s 1967 (or even Wayne Simpson’s 1970) then the Reds could exceed expectations pitching wise again this season.

Of course the above list also is a laundry list of broken wings and broken dreams, the game eats young pitching and sometimes it doesn’t spit it back up.

Once Howsam left and the game slowly morphed into the style we see today the young 21 year old pitcher stopped showing up in Cincinnati and from 1981-2006 we’ve probably seen them less then any other time in the teams history.


1981-2006

INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE
1 Scott Scudder 1989 100.1 -9 21
2 John Roper 1993 80 -14 21
3 Jeff Russell 1983 68.1 6 21
4 Ryan Wagner 2004 51.2 -4 21
5 Dennys Reyes 1998 38.2 -1 21
6 Johnny Ruffin 1993 37.2 2 21
7 Ryan Wagner 2003 21.2 6 20
8 Curt Lyons 1996 16 0 21
9 Rosario Rodriguez 1990 10.1 -3 20
10 Rosario Rodriguez 1989 4.1 0 19
11 Candy Sierra 1988 4 0 21

Again the above is a collection of relievers and failed starters, with Jeff Russell representing the cream of the crop.

Regardless of the talent Homer has and regardless of the need for him to carry the Reds (someday), he’s likely going to have a very tough road ahead in the major leagues, it’s not an easy place to play and it’s not any easier for younger guys as the record shows. They tend to get overwhelmed and well, who can blame them.

Remember in this game there have been more Dave Skaugstad’s then Gary Nolan’s.

redsupport
01-11-2007, 11:59 AM
candy sierra was the pond scum of the crop

redsupport
01-11-2007, 12:00 PM
curt lyons was undefeated

RANDY IN INDY
01-11-2007, 12:03 PM
Of course the above list also is a laundry list of broken wings and broken dreams, the game eats young pitching and sometimes it doesn’t spit it back up.

It's the chance you take. I'm wondering what might have been if both Nolan and Simpson had the advantage of the advances in arm surgery that is
available now. It will be interesting to see when Homer gets the call.

redsmetz
01-11-2007, 12:18 PM
Regardless of the talent Homer has and regardless of the need for him to carry the Reds (someday), he’s likely going to have a very tough road ahead in the major leagues, it’s not an easy place to play and it’s not any easier for younger guys as the record shows. They tend to get overwhelmed and well, who can blame them.

Remember in this game there have been more Dave Skaugstad’s then Gary Nolan’s.

I think this is why, Nuxhall's prediction notwithstanding, that Bailey starts in AAA. I've said it repeatedly, WK seems to be a firm believer in all levels of minor league play and progressing accordingly. I continue to think we'll be a better organization for it.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 01:43 PM
WOY, you missed this part where Nuxhall added this

"The big thing that has to happen, he has to show consistency with his breaking ball and off-speed pitches," said the 78-year-old Nuxhall, former Reds pitcher and radio broadcaster, probably the most beloved sports celebrity in Southwest Ohio.

"If he shows that consistency during spring training," Nuxhall added, "I'm predicting he'll be there."

westofyou
01-11-2007, 01:53 PM
WOY, you missed this part where Nuxhall added this

There's always a "Only if" statement attached to the young pitcher.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 02:18 PM
Thats true....
I went and looked into the 2000-2005 seasons for pitchers 21 or under who threw 80 or more innings. I went with 80 or more, becuase at 21 I figure 160 innings for that age is a full season, so 80 would roughly be half a season in the bigs at the age. Here is the data I came up with:
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/under21.jpg

Now while there were releivers in there (Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez), if you look at the starters only, which there were 21 starters in the bunch. There were 5 starters of the 21 with ERAs over 5.00. That leaves 16 with ERAs under 5.00. 76% of starters in that time period produced well enough to be considered a good #5 starter for their team. 57% of the starters had ERAs under 4.00. Last year had some success as well, but I dont have the full data for that, so I left it all out. I would be plenty happy if Homer came up next year and had a 4.00-4.50 ERA as long as he was growing as a pitcher.

Edit becuase I missed someone. Oscar Villareal, as a reliever put up this line at 21:
10-7, 2.57 ERA in 98 innings, allowed 80 hits, 80 strikeouts, 46 walks.

Chip R
01-11-2007, 02:54 PM
Homer's not going to be 21 till the first part of May. If they must bring him up, I hope they wait till then since 21 is the legal drinking age. That way, he can socialize with his teammates. But even that is somewhat of a caution. Homer wouldn't be the first nor would he be the last young player to go out and get wasted every night - or at the least stay out till all hours. We're talking about a 21 year old kid who is making 6 figures and has been anointed as an All Star in the making. It's enough to turn anyone's head. Reaching the legal drinking age is a rite of passage. Many people celebrate this by partying all the time. However, most of those people aren't big league pitchers making $300K a year. Now Homer can get blitzed just as easily in Columbus as he can in Chicago. But the big league lifestyle is a little different even from AAA. Whitey Herzog said that David Clyde wasn't ruined by getting called up too early, he was ruined because he partied too much. No one says Homer can't go out after games and have a few drinks and chase some skirts. But he - and the Reds - need to remember that the temptation is very great for a young man in his circumstances.

What the fans also have to remember is that it's highly unlikely that when Homer comes up he's going to be the second coming of Kerry Wood. He may be, and that will be great. But as dougdirt's chart shows, it's pretty unlikely. I'm afraid that fans are going to be disappointed in Homer if and when he doesn't immediately meet expectations.

westofyou
01-11-2007, 04:57 PM
Since 2000 there have been 48 pitchers age 21 or younger who made at least 5 starts in a season. This is them sorted by Runs Saved Against Average.

Then there is a sort by who was best vs the league in striking out batters. This is the telling list.


SEASON
2000-2006

AGE <= 21
GAMES STARTED >= 5
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RSAA YEAR RSAA GS IP SO/9 IP AGE
1 Rick Ankiel 2000 22 30 175 3.23 20
2 Felix Hernandez 2005 15 12 84.1 2.06 19
3 Jerome Williams 2003 14 21 131 -.60 21
T4 Jon Garland 2001 12 16 117 -1.75 21
T4 Dontrelle Willis 2003 12 27 160.2 1.31 21
6 Scott Kazmir 2005 11 32 186 2.26 21
T7 Mark Prior 2002 9 19 116.2 4.57 21
T7 Matt Cain 2005 9 7 46.1 -.74 20
9 Chad Billingsley 2006 8 16 90 -.81 21
T10 Gil Meche 2000 7 15 85.2 0.03 21
T10 Zack Greinke 2004 7 24 145 -.24 20
T10 Matt Cain 2006 7 31 190.2 1.74 21
T13 Bud Smith 2001 5 14 84.2 -.72 21
T13 Juan Cruz 2001 5 8 44.2 0.86 20
T15 C.C. Sabathia 2002 4 33 210 0.13 21
T15 Carlos Zambrano 2002 4 16 108.1 0.96 21
T15 Brandon Lyon 2001 4 11 63 -1.44 21
T18 Oliver Perez 2002 3 15 90 2.63 20
T18 Jimmy Gobble 2003 3 9 52.2 -.81 21
T18 C.C. Sabathia 2001 3 33 180.1 2.09 20
T18 Brandon McCarthy 2005 3 10 67 0.29 21
22 Miguel Asencio 2002 2 21 123.1 -2.03 21
23 Juan Cruz 2002 0 9 97.1 0.72 21
24 Rich Harden 2003 -2 13 74.2 1.96 21
25 Brett Myers 2002 -4 12 72 -2.52 21
T26 Nick Neugebauer 2002 -5 12 55.1 0.88 21
T26 Kyle Davies 2005 -5 14 87.2 -.21 21
T26 Scott Kazmir 2004 -5 7 33.1 4.62 20
T26 Felix Hernandez 2006 -5 31 191 1.85 20
T26 Chris George 2001 -5 13 74 -2.55 21
T31 Edwin Jackson 2005 -7 6 28.2 -2.49 21
T31 Rick Ankiel 2001 -7 6 24 3.13 21
T31 Sean Burnett 2004 -7 13 71.2 -2.97 21
34 Jake Peavy 2002 -8 17 97.2 1.53 21
T35 Jeremy Bonderman 2004 -9 32 184 1.77 21
T35 Edwin Jackson 2004 -9 5 24.2 -.90 20
T37 Hayden Penn 2005 -10 8 38.1 -1.93 20
T37 Jon Garland 2000 -10 13 69.2 -.84 20
39 Johan Santana 2000 -11 5 86 0.43 21
40 Justin Germano 2004 -12 5 21.1 0.01 21
41 Nate Cornejo 2001 -14 10 42.2 -1.80 21
42 Travis Blackley 2004 -17 6 26 -.91 21
43 Oliver Perez 2003 -21 24 126.2 3.37 21
T44 Hayden Penn 2006 -23 6 19.2 -2.78 21
T44 Jeremy Bonderman 2003 -23 28 162 -.11 20
46 Edgar Gonzalez 2004 -25 10 46.1 -.71 21
47 Zack Greinke 2005 -30 33 183 -.55 21
48 Ruben Quevedo 2000 -32 15 88 -.10 21



SEASON
2000-2006

AGE <= 21
GAMES STARTED >= 5
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

STRIKEOUTS/9 IP YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE GS IP AGE
1 Scott Kazmir 2004 4.62 11.07 6.45 7 33.1 20
2 Mark Prior 2002 4.57 11.34 6.77 19 116.2 21
3 Oliver Perez 2003 3.37 10.02 6.65 24 126.2 21
4 Rick Ankiel 2000 3.23 9.98 6.75 30 175 20
5 Rick Ankiel 2001 3.13 10.13 6.99 6 24 21
6 Oliver Perez 2002 2.63 9.40 6.77 15 90 20
7 Scott Kazmir 2005 2.26 8.42 6.16 32 186 21
8 C.C. Sabathia 2001 2.09 8.53 6.44 33 180.1 20
9 Felix Hernandez 2005 2.06 8.22 6.16 12 84.1 19
10 Rich Harden 2003 1.96 8.08 6.11 13 74.2 21
11 Felix Hernandez 2006 1.85 8.29 6.44 31 191 20
12 Jeremy Bonderman 2004 1.77 8.22 6.45 32 184 21
13 Matt Cain 2006 1.74 8.45 6.71 31 190.2 21
14 Jake Peavy 2002 1.53 8.29 6.77 17 97.2 21
15 Dontrelle Willis 2003 1.31 7.95 6.65 27 160.2 21
16 Carlos Zambrano 2002 0.96 7.73 6.77 16 108.1 21
17 Nick Neugebauer 2002 0.88 7.64 6.77 12 55.1 21
18 Juan Cruz 2001 0.86 7.86 6.99 8 44.2 20
19 Juan Cruz 2002 0.72 7.49 6.77 9 97.1 21
20 Johan Santana 2000 0.43 6.70 6.27 5 86 21
21 Brandon McCarthy 2005 0.29 6.45 6.16 10 67 21
22 C.C. Sabathia 2002 0.13 6.39 6.26 33 210 21
23 Gil Meche 2000 0.03 6.30 6.27 15 85.2 21
24 Justin Germano 2004 0.01 6.75 6.74 5 21.1 21
25 Ruben Quevedo 2000 -.10 6.65 6.75 15 88 21
26 Jeremy Bonderman 2003 -.11 6.00 6.11 28 162 20
27 Kyle Davies 2005 -.21 6.37 6.57 14 87.2 21
28 Zack Greinke 2004 -.24 6.21 6.45 24 145 20
29 Zack Greinke 2005 -.55 5.61 6.16 33 183 21
30 Jerome Williams 2003 -.60 6.05 6.65 21 131 21
31 Edgar Gonzalez 2004 -.71 6.02 6.74 10 46.1 21
32 Bud Smith 2001 -.72 6.27 6.99 14 84.2 21
33 Matt Cain 2005 -.74 5.83 6.57 7 46.1 20
34 Chad Billingsley 2006 -.81 5.90 6.71 16 90 21
35 Jimmy Gobble 2003 -.81 5.30 6.11 9 52.2 21
36 Jon Garland 2000 -.84 5.43 6.27 13 69.2 20
37 Edwin Jackson 2004 -.90 5.84 6.74 5 24.2 20
38 Travis Blackley 2004 -.91 5.54 6.45 6 26 21
39 Brandon Lyon 2001 -1.44 5.00 6.44 11 63 21
40 Jon Garland 2001 -1.75 4.69 6.44 16 117 21
41 Nate Cornejo 2001 -1.80 4.64 6.44 10 42.2 21
42 Hayden Penn 2005 -1.93 4.23 6.16 8 38.1 20
43 Miguel Asencio 2002 -2.03 4.23 6.26 21 123.1 21
44 Edwin Jackson 2005 -2.49 4.08 6.57 6 28.2 21
45 Brett Myers 2002 -2.52 4.25 6.77 12 72 21
46 Chris George 2001 -2.55 3.89 6.44 13 74 21
47 Hayden Penn 2006 -2.78 3.66 6.44 6 19.2 21
48 Sean Burnett 2004 -2.97 3.77 6.74 13 71.2 21

CrackerJack
01-11-2007, 05:33 PM
Homer's not going to be 21 till the first part of May. If they must bring him up, I hope they wait till then since 21 is the legal drinking age. That way, he can socialize with his teammates. But even that is somewhat of a caution. Homer wouldn't be the first nor would he be the last young player to go out and get wasted every night - or at the least stay out till all hours. We're talking about a 21 year old kid who is making 6 figures and has been anointed as an All Star in the making. It's enough to turn anyone's head. Reaching the legal drinking age is a rite of passage. Many people celebrate this by partying all the time. However, most of those people aren't big league pitchers making $300K a year. Now Homer can get blitzed just as easily in Columbus as he can in Chicago. But the big league lifestyle is a little different even from AAA. Whitey Herzog said that David Clyde wasn't ruined by getting called up too early, he was ruined because he partied too much. No one says Homer can't go out after games and have a few drinks and chase some skirts. But he - and the Reds - need to remember that the temptation is very great for a young man in his circumstances.



With peers like Ryan Freel to mentor him, why worry!?

reds44
01-11-2007, 06:57 PM
He better have improved his breaking and offspeed stuff alot since I spoke to Hal McCoy in late July last year.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 07:54 PM
Hal McCoy hasnt seen Bailey pitch in a year....so what he thinks of Homer Baileys stuff means very little to me.

reds44
01-11-2007, 07:58 PM
Hal McCoy hasnt seen Bailey pitch in a year....so what he thinks of Homer Baileys stuff means very little to me.
I heard his pitch breakdown though. That means alot to me.

redsupport
01-11-2007, 09:41 PM
do you think John Roper was hall of fame material

jojo
01-11-2007, 09:47 PM
Thats true....
I went and looked into the 2000-2005 seasons for pitchers 21 or under who threw 80 or more innings. I went with 80 or more, becuase at 21 I figure 160 innings for that age is a full season, so 80 would roughly be half a season in the bigs at the age. Here is the data I came up with:
http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g66/dougdirt/under21.jpg

Now while there were releivers in there (Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez), if you look at the starters only, which there were 21 starters in the bunch. There were 5 starters of the 21 with ERAs over 5.00. That leaves 16 with ERAs under 5.00. 76&#37; of starters in that time period produced well enough to be considered a good #5 starter for their team. 57% of the starters had ERAs under 4.00. Last year had some success as well, but I dont have the full data for that, so I left it all out. I would be plenty happy if Homer came up next year and had a 4.00-4.50 ERA as long as he was growing as a pitcher.

Edit becuase I missed someone. Oscar Villareal, as a reliever put up this line at 21:
10-7, 2.57 ERA in 98 innings, allowed 80 hits, 80 strikeouts, 46 walks.


Here's something I'd suggest. I would ignore Homer's (and other youngsters) ERA completely and focus only on their peripherals when judging their productivity. Case in point-King Felix. Some would look at his ERA of 4.52 from last year and conclude he was ineffective or hasn't lived up to his *hype* when in fact he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors. For instance he had the 4th lowest xFIP, 6th highest GB% and 11th highest K/G among all qualifying starters in the majors. His unimpressive ERA was due largely to unlucky HF/FB and LOB% rates-both things pitchers really have no control over.

In my mind, if Homer comes up next year and has an xFIP under 4.50 (roughly the median for qualifying starters in the majors for '06) he's taken a huge step. If he posts one under 4 then he would be an unmitagated success.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw that out there.

Falls City Beer
01-11-2007, 09:48 PM
What the fans also have to remember is that it's highly unlikely that when Homer comes up he's going to be the second coming of Kerry Wood. He may be, and that will be great. But as dougdirt's chart shows, it's pretty unlikely. I'm afraid that fans are going to be disappointed in Homer if and when he doesn't immediately meet expectations.

Even under the most idyllic circumstances, it's next to impossible to be even average in MLB.

Never, ever hurts to reiterate that point, I agree. Add in control problems throughout Bailey's minor league career, and there's certainly cause for curbing the enthusiasm.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 09:55 PM
Jojo, I agree....problem was, that would have required me to break down all those by myself and I simply didnt have the time. ERA was a quick and dirty way of looking at it all.
As a side note, King Felix makes my head hurt because is so good at such a young age....

Falls City Beer
01-11-2007, 09:57 PM
Jojo, I agree....problem was, that would have required me to break down all those by myself and I simply didnt have the time. ERA was a quick and dirty way of looking at it all.
As a side note, King Felix makes my head hurt because is so good at such a young age....

I think it's somewhat flawed to say Bailey's in Felix's class as a pitcher. Felix's pedigree is much more evident and his polish much more refined, IMO.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 09:57 PM
I heard his pitch breakdown though. That means alot to me.

I also heard his pitch breakdown....from when I listened to and posted pitch by pitch accounts of all of his starts upon his promotion to AA and several while in the FSL. I dont think it was overly that bad....he probably wants to mix in the change up a little more than he does, but I would say his curve was thrown about what you would expect.

dougdirt
01-11-2007, 09:58 PM
I think it's somewhat flawed to say Bailey's in Felix's class as a pitcher. Felix's pedigree is much more evident and his polish much more refined, IMO.

Nowhere was I comparing the two. King Felix is on a completely different level than anyone in those regards. Hence why he makes my head hurt....he is so good at such a young age that it makes very little sense.

Falls City Beer
01-11-2007, 09:59 PM
Nowhere was I comparing the two. King Felix is on a completely different level than anyone in those regards. Hence why he makes my head hurt....he is so good at such a young age that it makes very little sense.

No you weren't. But jojo was intimating as such. Or maybe not. Long day.

jojo
01-11-2007, 10:21 PM
No you weren't. But jojo was intimating as such. Or maybe not. Long day.


I wasn't comparing the two but rather using Felix as an example of how ERA can masked the true effectiveness of a pitcher. I could've just as easily have used Ryan Franklin's '03 season (in that case his ERA masked just how ineffective he was).....

It has been a long day though.....but then why does time seem to fly? :beerme:

George Foster
01-14-2007, 12:37 AM
I thought Bailey would be on the Roster opening day all along. Heck Narron would have called him up in September if he had the power to do so. This is why they have not paid the big price for a FA signing. Their eggs are in the Bailey basket in 07.

Spitball
01-14-2007, 10:34 AM
I thought Bailey would be on the Roster opening day all along. Heck Narron would have called him up in September if he had the power to do so. This is why they have not paid the big price for a FA signing. Their eggs are in the Bailey basket in 07.

I agree, though I believe Bailey will be sent to triple-A until a fifth starter is needed or until someone falters. Otherwise, I believe we would have seen the Reds being more aggressive (at least linked to an acquisition sometime this winter) in acquiring another starter.

Jr's Boy
01-14-2007, 05:35 PM
Well the lack of the Reds pursuing another SP for the rotation leads me to believe their banking on Homer in spring training.