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View Full Version : RedsZone's Prospects: Beyond the Top 10



chicoruiz
01-16-2007, 03:14 PM
1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Travis Wood
6. Drew Stubbs
7. Chris Valaika
8. Sam LeCure
9. Milton Loo
10. Sean Watson

Well, that was fun. I'm glad we did this; we've had some interesting discussions along the way, and I've learned a lot from all of you.

What I'd like you to do now is this: post a list of your prospects 11 through 15; feel free to include a brief comment. I'll wait a week or so, then tally the votes, with 5 points given to your #11 pick, 4 to your #12, etc. Then I'll publish the final list.

Feel free to go beyond #15, but only 11-15 will receive points. No ties please. And don't spend a lot of time criticizing the lists of others; I want us all to feel free to be a little off the wall with our selections.

I'll go first. I don't think Janish will hit, and I don't want to pick any more first-year players. So, just for the heck of it, I'll go:

11. David Shafer- They wouldn't send him back to Chattanooga, would they?
12. Calvin Medlock- I think he can pitch; I just don't trust the Reds to know it.
13. Cody Strait- Probably the most upside of remaining position players.
14. Tonys Gutierrez- Blocked by Votto; would move up list if he could play OF, cause he can hit.
15. Adam Rosales- Struggled in 122 AA ABs; I'm betting he pulls out of it.

If I could have added another player it would be Carlos Guevara. I know he's a little righty with a trick pitch and all that, but results are results. At the very least, I think you could call him up in midseason to cover for an injury, and he could pitch successfully for a couple of months until the league figured him out.

Hoosier Red
01-16-2007, 03:42 PM
11. Medlock
12. Shafer
13. Janish
14. Strait
15. Guevera


Basically the same as your's but inserting Janish for Rosales based on better season last year at higher level.

TRF
01-16-2007, 03:43 PM
Completely agree with your 11 & 12. I think they are interchangeable in fact.

at 13 i put another pitcher: Tyler Pelland. His development is going to take longer because he has been rushed, but he's got a FB that touches 95, and a big curveball. Control can take longer with LH pitchers, and his final destination might be the pen, but he can miss bats. His K/9 dipped in 2006 as he was again over promoted, but he isn't prone to the HR, and his career K/9 is just north of 8. My hope is he repeats AA. Of course I was hoping he would repeat A+ in 2006, and A- in 2005.

14 I'll go with Janish. I need a hitter in there somewhere.

dougdirt
01-16-2007, 03:46 PM
11. Josh Ravin
12. Paul Janish
13. Justin Turner
14. Tyler Pelland
15. Drew Anderson

edabbs44
01-16-2007, 03:57 PM
No love for Lutz...I had him at #9.

Red Leader
01-16-2007, 04:00 PM
11. Medlock
12. Janish
13. Pelland
14. Shafer
15. Turner

icehole3
01-16-2007, 04:10 PM
11. Hamilton - this kid is getting his second chance and as much as I hate counting on druggies...well.
12. Turner - saw him on the tube a couple times last year and I thought I was watching a young Freel.
13. Fisher - good arm
14. Shafer
15. Janish
16. Dorn - could be another Paul O Neill

lollipopcurve
01-16-2007, 04:11 PM
11. Tyler Pelland -- I'll echo TRF here -- hard throwing lefties can't be ignored; he survived at 22/23 as a starter in AA
12. Calvin Medlock -- like Pelland, cut his teeth as a starter but looks more likely to end up relieving; fastball a few ticks into the 90s and a nice curveball give him a repertoire that's likely to be unique among late-inning guys in most major league pens
13. Josh Hamilton -- big, athletic lefty power hitter with something to prove; if he can conquer demons and long layoff he's got the talent to be an everyday big league outfielder within a couple years
14. Paul Janish -- if his defense is for real, he's in the right organization to get a legitimate shot
15. David Shafer -- the numbers don't lie; only question I have is fit -- seems groomed to close but pure stuff may not be overpowering enough while durability seems suspect for set-up work

Close but no wishbone C-gar: Justin Turner, Norris Hopper, Jon Coutlangus

edabbs44
01-16-2007, 04:16 PM
Why is everyone down on Lutz? Compare his numbers vs Watson's in their debuts...pretty scary. Maybe it's draft position discrimination?

Blue
01-16-2007, 04:28 PM
11. Hamilton
12. Strait
13. Turner
14. Dumatrait
15. Coutlangus

that's a little different than my previous list.

Blue
01-16-2007, 04:29 PM
Why is everyone down on Lutz? Compare his numbers vs Watson's in their debuts...pretty scary. Maybe it's draft position discrimination?

I think Watson will be a starter. That's why I put him ahead of Lutz.

Kc61
01-16-2007, 05:20 PM
11. Coutlangus. Has done well at every level, including Arizona Fall League, a good sign for guy who started pitching late in his career. Just guessing that he hasn't come near his best yet.

12. Janish. Impressed that he hit better this year, with his great defense seems a sure major leaguer. If offense continues to improve, could be starter.

13. Shafer. Seems like Todd Coffey 2. I think this guy could work a lot of middle innings for the Reds someday. Needs to pitch more two inning stretches at AAA this year.

14. Dorn. Probably most would rank lower, but hit much better than higher rated prospects at Billings. Was a dominant hitter in that league.

15. Dumatrait. Just a guess that he will rebound next year. Was disappointed in his AAA numbers. There was a stretch last year in which Dumatrait was pretty dominant at AA, which makes me think he can be good. Perhaps he just faded late in the season after return from injury.

Superdude
01-16-2007, 06:18 PM
11) Janish
12) Ravin
13) Shafer
14) Strait
15) Medlock

dougdirt
01-16-2007, 06:27 PM
I edited my list.... just wanted to say that incase votes were already being written down

Patrick Bateman
01-16-2007, 06:47 PM
11. Shafer (Great numbers, close to majors, likely a major league calibre reliever at some point)
12. Medlock (See Shafer. Hopefully one of these guys can be a good set-up guy, maybe even closer calibre some day, they should contribute in some way)
13. Pelland (One of the few advanced arms, as he's nearing AAA. Probably best fit as a power lefty reliever)
14. Janish (One of the few infield prospects. Can field a good SS. If he can progress in hitting, he could be an Alex Gonzalez calibre starter, if not should be a good fielding back-up middle infielder)
15. Ravin (Doug seems pretty high on him so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.)

dougdirt
01-16-2007, 07:08 PM
15. Ravin (Doug seems pretty high on him so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.)

He was hitting 96 MPH this summer with his fastball, which was 3 MPH more than he was throwing the summer before his senior year began. He also has a change up that at times is above average but is still inconsistant and a curve that is in progress. When he was drafted he was considered a polished HS pitcher, and he throw hard and has 3 pitches. He is tall at 6'4".... lots to like, and he put up decent numbers with very good strikeout numbers.

mth123
01-16-2007, 08:20 PM
11. Shafer
12. Medlock
13. Coutlangus
14. Strait
15. Salmon

Betterread
01-16-2007, 09:40 PM
11. Tyler Pelland
12. Josh Ravin
13. Paul Janish
14. Rafael Gonzalez
15. Danny Dorn

BigRed07
01-16-2007, 09:50 PM
11. Turner
12. Janish
13. Dorn
14. Strait
15. Ravin

edabbs44
01-16-2007, 10:11 PM
11: Lutz
12: Ravin
13: Janish
14: Pelland
15: Shafer

dmcgee77
01-16-2007, 11:10 PM
Dumatrait (former first rounder) We gave up Scott Williamson to get him.
Janish
Shafer
Medlock
Pelland

Patrick Bateman
01-16-2007, 11:22 PM
He was hitting 96 MPH this summer with his fastball, which was 3 MPH more than he was throwing the summer before his senior year began. He also has a change up that at times is above average but is still inconsistant and a curve that is in progress. When he was drafted he was considered a polished HS pitcher, and he throw hard and has 3 pitches. He is tall at 6'4".... lots to like, and he put up decent numbers with very good strikeout numbers.

That sounds a lot better than the other prospects that can be considered around that level.

It sounds like he's got some talent, so as long as he can stay away from the injury bug, hopefully he can progress nicely.

HokieRed
01-16-2007, 11:47 PM
11. Strait
12. Medlock
13. Shafer
14. Fisher
15. Ravin

camisadelgolf
01-17-2007, 02:13 AM
11. Wirfin Obispo
12. Logan Parker
13. Paul Janish
14. Tyler Pelland
15. Rick Asadoorian

WMR
01-17-2007, 05:47 AM
I think we oughta vote through 20-25 or something. this is such a great off-season activity.

Triples
01-17-2007, 09:30 AM
11. Drew Anderson, another Ryan Freel, plays all out all the time. He's the only player other than Bailey from the 2004 draft class to get a promotion to AA last year (other than a couple of late season bump ups). Reds seem to like him, sent him to AZFL where he did well on the championship team; came on well once he got some playing time. What most folks don't know is that he didn't start switch hitting full time until half way through his short season in Billings. The left side has finally caught up with the right side and his average & OPS should show it in 07. Think Freel/Eckstein.

12. Janish - its all been said, his fielding apparently is already major league quality. If he can prove he can hit at the higher levels he will see the Majors in the next couple of years. Getting hurt (elbow surgery) in 05 held him back a year.

13. Tyler Pelland - has done well at every level he's pitched and has moved ahead of his draft class. May not be a 1,2 or 3 starter but maybe a 4 or 5 or a good guy out of the bull pen. Lefties that throw 92 mph strikes don't come along everyday.

14. Hamilton - just have a gut feeling this guy is going to turn his life around and no one has ever doubted his talent.

15.Coutlangus - again, its all been said already. He did have a reasonably good showing in AZFL.

:beerme:

AdamDunn
01-17-2007, 09:47 AM
11. Hamilton
12. Janish
13. Shafer
14. Ravin
15. Coutlangus

but, personally, after 13 it doesn't really matter.

Danny Serafini
01-17-2007, 10:22 AM
11. Hamilton
12. Janish
13. Salmon
14. Shafer
15. Strait

bucksfan2
01-17-2007, 02:59 PM
This has probably already been talked about but Hamilton is an interesting case. Correct me if im wrong but wasn't this kid a once in a decade kind of talent who backed it up in his first few years in the minors? I realize that the guy hasn't faced live pitching in what 1-2 years but these kind of talents just dont disappear. Isn't it possible that by the middle of spring training this kid could become one of the top prospects in the entire minors? I know this is kinda optimistic but people with as much talent as Hamilton follow their own developmental schedule.

dougdirt
01-17-2007, 03:24 PM
You would think that type of talent doesnt just go away, but drugs to funny things to bodies and I am not sure how much of the talent he has left....no one on here probably does (well maybe Team Clark has a decent insight on where he is).

camisadelgolf
01-17-2007, 04:33 PM
13. Tyler Pelland - has done well at every level he's pitched and has moved ahead of his draft class. May not be a 1,2 or 3 starter but maybe a 4 or 5 or a good guy out of the bull pen. Lefties that throw 92 mph strikes don't come along everyday.

I just wanted to quote this for irony.

Superdude
01-17-2007, 04:56 PM
I just wanted to quote this for irony.

:nono: Don't let his 5.64 walk rate throw you off dude. That was just a fluke. Southern League umpires suck.

Kc61
01-17-2007, 05:19 PM
:nono: Don't let his 5.64 walk rate throw you off dude. That was just a fluke. Southern League umpires suck.

Pelland's WHIP for the last two seasons was over 1.6 each year. The previous year with the Reds org it was over 1.9. I didn't vote for him in the top 15 because I can't remember any stretch of games in which he was dominant. He has youth on his side. I doubt the Reds will promote him to AAA at this point, although it is possible.

Dumatrait, while older than Pelland, really did pitch superbly for awhile at AA last year (not the whole time, but for several games). I was really disappointed that he did so poorly in AAA and then in the Arizona Fall League, but he was coming off injury and perhaps the innings just wore on him. Next year should be make or break for Dumatrait; I'm hoping he finds it again at AAA. If so, I could see him with the Reds sometime next year as a fill-in starter or long reliever.

Another starting pitcher deserving of consideration is Jordan Smith, a pretty high draft choice, who pitched effectively in 68 innings at Billings last year. Didn't strike out that many, but had a solid ERA and got a lot of experience there. Haven't seen Smith's name mentioned much in this voting.

RedRedhawk
01-18-2007, 05:23 AM
11. Janish
12. Obispo
13. Strait
14. Ravin
15. Shafer

Superdude
01-18-2007, 04:43 PM
Another starting pitcher deserving of consideration is Jordan Smith, a pretty high draft choice, who pitched effectively in 68 innings at Billings last year. Didn't strike out that many, but had a solid ERA and got a lot of experience there.

Is he the guy that throws hard, but doesn't have a good breaking ball? A college pitcher with a K rate under 7 in rookie ball scares me. If he's the guy I'm thinking about though, it sounds like he's got the potential to change that.

Kc61
01-18-2007, 09:25 PM
Is he the guy that throws hard, but doesn't have a good breaking ball? A college pitcher with a K rate under 7 in rookie ball scares me. If he's the guy I'm thinking about though, it sounds like he's got the potential to change that.

Junior college guy, only 20 years old.

Highlifeman21
01-21-2007, 08:41 AM
1. Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce
3. Joey Votto
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Travis Wood
6. Drew Stubbs
7. Chris Valaika
8. Sam LeCure
9. Milton Loo
10. Sean Watson

Well, that was fun. I'm glad we did this; we've had some interesting discussions along the way, and I've learned a lot from all of you.

What I'd like you to do now is this: post a list of your prospects 11 through 15; feel free to include a brief comment. I'll wait a week or so, then tally the votes, with 5 points given to your #11 pick, 4 to your #12, etc. Then I'll publish the final list.

Feel free to go beyond #15, but only 11-15 will receive points. No ties please. And don't spend a lot of time criticizing the lists of others; I want us all to feel free to be a little off the wall with our selections.

I'll go first. I don't think Janish will hit, and I don't want to pick any more first-year players. So, just for the heck of it, I'll go:

11. David Shafer- They wouldn't send him back to Chattanooga, would they?
12. Calvin Medlock- I think he can pitch; I just don't trust the Reds to know it.
13. Cody Strait- Probably the most upside of remaining position players.
14. Tonys Gutierrez- Blocked by Votto; would move up list if he could play OF, cause he can hit.
15. Adam Rosales- Struggled in 122 AA ABs; I'm betting he pulls out of it.

If I could have added another player it would be Carlos Guevara. I know he's a little righty with a trick pitch and all that, but results are results. At the very least, I think you could call him up in midseason to cover for an injury, and he could pitch successfully for a couple of months until the league figured him out.

We should package the bolded 3 for something that might actually have a significant stay on a 25 man roster.

I would have to think that those 3, as overrated and overhyped as they seem to be having never played above AA would bring back that #3 SP everyone is convinced would be the savior of our 2007 campaign.

mth123
01-21-2007, 08:48 AM
We should package the bolded 3 for something that might actually have a significant stay on a 25 man roster.

I would have to think that those 3, as overrated and overhyped as they seem to be having never played above AA would bring back that #3 SP everyone is convinced would be the savior of our 2007 campaign.

Stubbs can't be traded until 1 year after he signed. I'm all for trading Wood. Cueto is starting to appear on more national lists and his value seems to be going up a bit. I think I'd keep him around unless its a no brainer. He might fetch more with another year behind him and some time in AA (or he could fall in value or really explode in value).

Highlifeman21
01-21-2007, 08:55 AM
Stubbs can't be traded until 1 year after he signed. I'm all for trading Wood. Cueto is starting to appear on more national lists and his value seems to be going up a bit. I think I'd keep him around unless its a no brainer. He might fetch more with another year behind him and some time in AA (or he could fall in value or really explode in value).

Did not know that. Thanks for the knowledge, mth123.

I don't ever see Stubbs playing for the Reds, and I was confused why Krivsky drafted him. I'm hoping he thought Stubbs was the best available talent when we were on the clock.