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flyer85
01-17-2007, 10:30 AM
Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
Less than a year after being drafted, Lincecum has an outside shot to break camp in the San Francisco rotation and become this year's Justin Verlander. He's only 6 feet tall but has a big fastball and even bigger curve.

from Alan Schwarz

westofyou
01-17-2007, 10:36 AM
Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
Less than a year after being drafted, Lincecum has an outside shot to break camp in the San Francisco rotation and become this year's Justin Verlander. He's only 6 feet tall but has a big fastball and even bigger curve.

Short RH pitcher eh?

Dangerous road to traverse, mostly a long shot.

M2
01-17-2007, 10:41 AM
Short RH pitcher eh?

Dangerous road to traverse, mostly a long shot.

Lincecum's one of the surest things you'll ever find on the mound. His stuff is surreal.

lollipopcurve
01-17-2007, 10:46 AM
Let's not forget that the Royals, Rockies, Pirates and Mariners all drafted college righthanders not named Tim Lincecum before Lincecum went to the Giants. He was not seen as the best option even within his age-and-position group by those teams.

It's too early to pronounce anyone drafted in 06 a success or a failure.

BRM
01-17-2007, 10:46 AM
Lincecum's one of the surest things you'll ever find on the mound. His stuff is surreal.

I remember lots of Zoner's clamoring for the Reds to draft him last summer.

westofyou
01-17-2007, 10:46 AM
Lincecum's one of the surest things you'll ever find on the mound. His stuff is surreal.

Eddie Bane he ain't (height wise) perhaps he'll pull an Oswalt?

Johnny Footstool
01-17-2007, 10:48 AM
Let's not forget that the Royals, Rockies, Pirates and Mariners all drafted college righthanders not named Tim Lincecum before Lincecum went to the Giants. He was not seen as the best option even within his age-and-position group by those teams.

It's too early to pronounce anyone drafted in 06 a success or a failure.

Those four teams are literally dripping with incompetence.

NJReds
01-17-2007, 10:51 AM
That's at least the third pitcher I've read that's going to be "this year's Justin Verlander."

lollipopcurve
01-17-2007, 10:56 AM
Those four teams are literally dripping with incompetence.

You don't like the Royals recent first rounders Butler and Gordon? Or the Rockies' Tulowitzki? Or the Pirates' McCutcheon? Seems to me they've drafted pretty well recently (though it ain't that tough at the top), and I assume the same people who made those choices were pulling the trigger in 06. Point being, Lincecum was not generally seen as a "duh" pick anywhere in the top ten. He's got that short righthander thing, and his two-pitch arsenal, devastating as it may be, may be more Tom Gordon than Dwight Gooden when it's all said and done (not that Tom Gordon wouldn't be an acceptable outcome, but his best days were in the pen). I maintain the Reds went the safe route with Stubbs -- he won't have to hit all that much (his solid power and patience will allow him to survive) to be an asset to the team in CF. I wouldn't judge him by his batting average alone, but that's what folks seem to be doing.

flyer85
01-17-2007, 10:59 AM
That's at least the third pitcher I've read that's going to be "this year's Justin Verlander."
he has both an 80 rating on his fastball and curveball. He was considered to have the best fastball and best curveball in the draft.

The Reds didn't select a pitcher, instead that selected a "toolsy" OF with a questionable bat.

edabbs44
01-17-2007, 11:02 AM
I would have loved to see Lincecum.

BA had a chat not long ago, where one of the writers posted his top 10 prospects. Homer was 6th, Bruce 7th and Lincecum 10th, IIRC. 3 Top 10s would be ridiculous.

I think Stubbs was an awful pick. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

flyer85
01-17-2007, 11:04 AM
I think Stubbs was an awful pick. Hopefully he proves me wrong.Stubbs certainly had an inauspicious debut.

M2
01-17-2007, 11:16 AM
Let's not forget that the Royals, Rockies, Pirates and Mariners all drafted college righthanders not named Tim Lincecum before Lincecum went to the Giants. He was not seen as the best option even within his age-and-position group by those teams.

It's too early to pronounce anyone drafted in 06 a success or a failure.

Lincecum dropped for the same reason that Andrew Miller, Mike Pelfrey, Luke Hochevar, Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir dropped. Teams thought he'd want too much money.

You can never pronounce any pitching prospect a success until he reaches the majors and succeeds, but Lincecum hurls untouchable advanced stuff.

lollipopcurve
01-17-2007, 11:37 AM
Lincecum dropped for the same reason that Andrew Miller, Mike Pelfrey, Luke Hochevar, Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir dropped. Teams thought he'd want too much money.

I don't recall this at all.




Detroit won't bite on Hochevar if the Royals go in a different direction, but it wouldn’t be afraid to battle for Miller. But the Tigers can get a quality pitcher without as much fuss by choosing Kershaw or Lincecum.

This is from Jim Callis's mock draft shortly before the draft. He makes no reference at all to signability issues with Lincecum. Miller was the one most teams were afraid of. I follow the draft very closely, but maybe I missed something...

NJReds
01-17-2007, 11:58 AM
he has both an 80 rating on his fastball and curveball. He was considered to have the best fastball and best curveball in the draft.

The Reds didn't select a pitcher, instead that selected a "toolsy" OF with a questionable bat.

I wasn't commenting on the Reds draft. I'm not a fan of Stubbs and I wouldn't have complained at all had they taken Lincecum. But let's let him throw a couple pitches in the majors before engraving his name on the Cy Young Award.

RedsManRick
01-17-2007, 12:05 PM
I was an advocate of drafting him. But I'm more than willing to reserve judgment until he comes through the injury nexus. That delivery is pretty unorthodox and combined with his size and the number of innings he threw in college, there's some reason to be at least concerned. His college workloads were Prioresque.

I certainly would love to have him over Stubbs right now, but can't truly judge until there's some history to evaluate.

Johnny Footstool
01-17-2007, 12:07 PM
You don't like the Royals recent first rounders Butler and Gordon? Or the Rockies' Tulowitzki? Or the Pirates' McCutcheon? Seems to me they've drafted pretty well recently (though it ain't that tough at the top), and I assume the same people who made those choices were pulling the trigger in 06. Point being, Lincecum was not generally seen as a "duh" pick anywhere in the top ten. He's got that short righthander thing, and his two-pitch arsenal, devastating as it may be, may be more Tom Gordon than Dwight Gooden when it's all said and done (not that Tom Gordon wouldn't be an acceptable outcome, but his best days were in the pen). I maintain the Reds went the safe route with Stubbs -- he won't have to hit all that much (his solid power and patience will allow him to survive) to be an asset to the team in CF. I wouldn't judge him by his batting average alone, but that's what folks seem to be doing.

Butler and Gordon don't vindicate the Royals' system any more than Dunn and Kearns vindicated the Reds' system.

The Royals still don't have any decent pitchers in their organization (although Greinke still has a chance to develop).

And then there's that Gil Meche thing...

M2
01-17-2007, 12:20 PM
Miller was the one most teams were afraid of. I follow the draft very closely, but maybe I missed something...

Miller was the one teams were the most afraid of, but Lincecum had demanded a $1 million bonus when he was a draft eligible sophomore in 2005 and supposedly he wasn't of a mind to cut the Royals any slack when they were eying him for the #1 pick.

TRF
01-17-2007, 01:35 PM
In the Redszone mock draft, I selected Linecum with the first overall pick.

I wish I were able to have kept up with that thread/draft. It looked fun. I hope we do it again this year.

I certainly would have preferred Linecum to Stubbs. Especially since Billings seemed to be hitting rich even without Stubbs.

Harang, Arroyo, Linecum, Bailey.

not bad. ah what could have been. The general incompetence of this organization traverses regimes. It seems to be a constant. I imagine every club is subject to this kind of hindsight, but this is going on a decade of blech. Only 1998 stands out, with 2004 looking pretty good (Bailey), and 2005 looking to be outstanding (Bruce, Wood, LeCure, Loo as a draft and follow, and Cueto as a NDFA)

Still I have to wonder. Will I love the Stubbs pick? I'm not seeing it right now. And if Linecum wins 10-12 games as a pro next year, I might rail on this for years.

flyer85
01-17-2007, 01:49 PM
The general incompetence of this organization traverses regimes. It seems to be a constant.it isn't that the Reds passed on Lincecum as much as they drafted Stubbs (a player most organizations were worried would not hit)

TRF
01-17-2007, 01:50 PM
it isn't that the Reds passed on Lincecum as much as they drafted Stubbs (a player most organizations were worried would not hit)

I think it's both. They passed on him to draft Stubbs.

M2
01-17-2007, 02:15 PM
One thing recent years have taught me is that if one of the top-rated guys on the board falls to you, draft him.

How would the Reds look today with Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver and Tim Lincecum? Pretty darn good. It's probably something we should have learned when the Reds picked Chad Mottola instead of Derek Jeter. Sure, every now and then you get something like the class of 2000 where there really isn't a good pick to be had, but most seasons a kid rated in the top three is a pretty sure thing, especially one that rates as having the best fastball and breaking ball in his draft class, plus being judged as the closest to major league ready.

BRM
01-17-2007, 02:18 PM
The Reds (and others) passed on Weaver and Kazmir due to signability issues, right? What was the reason for passing on Lincecum? Did they just feel Stubbs was the better pick?

flyer85
01-17-2007, 02:21 PM
The Reds (and others) passed on Weaver and Kazmir due to signability issues, right? What was the reason for passing on Lincecum? Did they just feel Stubbs was the better pick?probably. They never come out and say it. Lincecum is one of those guys that doesn't fit the parameters. I have little doubt that Beane would have taken him with the first pick.

M2
01-17-2007, 02:54 PM
The Reds (and others) passed on Weaver and Kazmir due to signability issues, right? What was the reason for passing on Lincecum? Did they just feel Stubbs was the better pick?

Hard to say. Lincecum had a history of being a fairly adamant negotiator from the year before when he wouldn't cut the Indians a discount. Then add in his height and unorthodox delivery and you've got multiple reasons for why an organization would talk itself out of drafting the kid with the most electric arm and best stuff in the draft.

IMO, it also gets easier not to draft a guy once he starts to drop. In a sane world, Lincecum should have been gone in the first two picks. Once the Royals and Rockies let him slide it gave other teams permission to do the same, providing the easy rationalization that there must be something wrong with him if he's still around on your pick. Sooner or later, someone breaks with the herd mentality, Detroit and San Francisco were the two who did it in 2006, and they land one of the true gems in the draft.

BRM
01-17-2007, 03:05 PM
So, part of it is simply being cheap. Part of it is that the kid just didn't fit the parameters of a future stud pitcher, particularly his height. And his delivery screamed injury risk to some is also a factor. I guess I can see how a team can talk itself out of drafting him. The fact that several other teams also passed on him makes it even easier to let him slide on by.

Johnny Footstool
01-17-2007, 03:06 PM
IMO, it also gets easier not to draft a guy once he starts to drop. In a sane world, Lincecum should have been gone in the first two picks. Once the Royals and Rockies let him slide it gave other teams permission to do the same, providing the easy rationalization that there must be something wrong with him if he's still around on your pick. Sooner or later, someone breaks with the herd mentality, Detroit and San Francisco were the two who did it in 2006, and they land one of the true gems in the draft.

Or possibly, teams anticipated him going higher and didn't bother negotiating with him at all, so when their pick comes, they go with one of the guys they've already talked to.

M2
01-17-2007, 03:34 PM
Or possibly, teams anticipated him going higher and didn't bother negotiating with him at all, so when their pick comes, they go with one of the guys they've already talked to.

Excellent point.

dougdirt
01-17-2007, 03:40 PM
I think it's both. They passed on him to draft Stubbs.

I think the Reds actually passed on Billy Rowell to draft Stubbs. Rowell was the guy I wanted personally, but I truly would have settled for anyone not named Stubbs. He has a lot of tools that I like, but when so many scouts are concerned about his ability to hit....it worried me way too much to warrant a top 10 pick on the guy.

PuffyPig
01-18-2007, 09:26 AM
Harang, Arroyo, Linecum, Bailey.

not bad. ah what could have been. The general incompetence of this organization traverses regimes.


While I don't know where you stood on this point, I find the above statement amusing, because most here hated the Bailey (another high school pitcher?) draft pick.

Also, considering that the Reds traded for Harang and Arroyo (givng up FA to be or spare parts) and drafted Bailey, 3 out of 4 ain't too bad. Maybe Linecum will turn out to be a better pick. But maybe not.

TRF
01-18-2007, 09:36 AM
While I don't know where you stood on this point, I find the above statement amusing, because most here hated the Bailey (another high school pitcher?) draft pick.

Also, considering that the Reds traded for Harang and Arroyo (givng up FA to be or spare parts) and drafted Bailey, 3 out of 4 ain't too bad. Maybe Linecum will turn out to be a better pick. But maybe not.

I preferred Townsend or Weaver. I know there was a group that wanted Cris Nelson, another group that wanted Drew. Bailey wasn't even the first HS pick. That made his choice somewhat risky. But DanO actually babied him in the minors. He wasn't rushed, his innings limited. So it worked out.

But this organization has been pitching starved for about a century. You do not pass up a talent like Linecum for a guy that might not, and did not hit.