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View Full Version : Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right



5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-17-2007, 01:01 PM
Just a thought but Tampa Bay has two players who can play centerfield in Baldelli and Carl Crawford. Both of which would put up around 25 hrs at GABP, replacing the lost power from the Kearns trade. Both also would be a big upgrade defensively. What do you think it would take to get one of these guys? Id try Dunn, Deno, and a prospect for both but thats just dreamin. Any ideas?

pedro
01-17-2007, 01:07 PM
If Crawford was a good option in CF I believe he would have played there when Baldelli was injured. Even the Baldelli missed all of 2005 and half of 2006 Crawford has only played 23 games in CF in his career.

Team Clark
01-17-2007, 01:11 PM
If Crawford was a good option in CF I believe he would have played there when Baldelli was injured. Even the Baldelli missed all of 2005 and half of 2006 Crawford has only played 23 games in CF in his career.

Crawford is a LF. That's it. LF

Baldelli would be a good option. He's not very patient but he can rake and he should be 100% by now.

Joseph
01-17-2007, 01:11 PM
Baldelli would be a fan favorite in no time here. I don't know that they are keen on getting rid of him, but if they are, he's a target I'd choose if I had a vote.

pedro
01-17-2007, 01:12 PM
Baldelli would be a good pickup.

jojo
01-17-2007, 01:14 PM
The thing is,to get either guy, the Reds would have to get in line. Tampa has resisted trading both those guys so until they get expensive, it'll be expensive to trade for one.... I seriously doubt Dunn+Deno+prospect for Crawford even gets them to return Krivsky's phone call.

BRM
01-17-2007, 01:15 PM
Baldelli would be a good pickup.

Is Tampa even interested in dealing him though?

pedro
01-17-2007, 01:20 PM
The thing is,to get either guy, the Reds would have to get in line. Tampa has resisted trading both those guys so until they get expensive, it'll be expensive to trade for one.... I seriously doubt Dunn+Deno+prospect for Crawford even gets them to return Krivsky's phone call.

and if Krivsky was stupid enough to make that call he should be fired.

flyer85
01-17-2007, 01:24 PM
I have no idea what TB is interested in doing. They seem to have a tin ear when it comes to understanding when players should be dealt. They held on to Huff and Lugo way too long.

They have a surplus of OF/DH types. (Crawford/Baldelli/Young/Gomes/Dukes/Upton)

What they would want in return is not more OF DH types(like the suggestion of Deno and Dunn), they should want pitching.

edabbs44
01-17-2007, 01:28 PM
Option #1: Denorfia

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-17-2007, 01:36 PM
If Crawford was a good option in CF I believe he would have played there when Baldelli was injured. Even the Baldelli missed all of 2005 and half of 2006 Crawford has only played 23 games in CF in his career.

He is said to have the arm and range to play CF, Lou Piniella was quoted as saying the reason for not moving him to center was because he wasn't moving the best LF in the game. Maybe he can maybe he can't, but it would give us a very solid lead off guy, and I would bet he is much better than KGJ defensively at this stage of his career. Also he could be reunited with his old buddy Josh Hamilton. I found a little from this article from jockbio.com kinda interesting.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays held the first pick overall, and they spent it on North Carolina high-schooler Josh Hamilton, widely considered the best teenager in the draft. The entire first round passed without Carl’s name being called, but the D-Rays opened round two by selecting him. Tampa Bay was thrilled he was still on the board. Bart Braun and Doug Gassaway, who were calling the shots on draft day, actually had Carl rated above Hamilton in many categories. USA Today, in fact, predicted he would be a “high first-round pick.” Obviously, his Nebraska scholarship scared the other teams off. All in all, it was a bad day for college football coaches. The Rays’ third pick, Doug Waechter, was set to become South Florida’s QB.

It took less than two weeks for Tampa Bay to cut a deal with Carl. His $1.2 million bonus was the fourth-highest ever paid to a non-first-round pick. He reported to Princeton of the Appalachian League, where he joined Hamilton in the D-Ray outfield under the tutelage of manager Bobby Ramos. Both players hit well, but Hamilton, with 10 homers and a .349 average in 56 games, was the one who earned a late-season promotion. Carl’s stats were nearly as good. He batted .319 in 60 games and stole 17 bases in 19 attempts. While the team hoped to see more power out of Carl, he was named one of the league’s Top 10 prospects.

The 2000 season found Carl playing for Charleston of the South Atlantic League. Once again, he was overshadowed by Hamilton, who starred in the Futures Game and the SAL All-Star Game, and was named the league’s co-MVP with JR House. Hamilton hit .302 for the year, and finished with 13 homers and 61 RBIs despite missing the final month due to pain associated with a spring-training car wreck. Carl had himself a nice season too, matching Hamilton’s .301 average and knocking in 57 runs. His 38 extra-base hits were one short of Hamilton’s total, while his 55 steals easily led the RiverDogs. And once again, Carl was named one of his league’s Top 10 prospects.

RedsManRick
01-17-2007, 01:43 PM
CHRIS DENORFIA.

PECOTA weighted means projections:

Deno, 458 PA: .296/.365/.459, 12 HR, 9/12 SB, .280 EqA
Freel, 447 PA: .271/.361/.404, 8 HR, 32/42 SB, .270 EqA

Bruce, 571 PA: .264/.319/.460, 20 HR, 14/21 SB, .260 EqA

Crawford, 586 PA: .309/.351/.476, 16 HR, 43/54 SB, .294
Baldelli, 520 PA: .299/.342/.501, 20 HR, 13/17 SB, .292

Now, looking at those projections, make an argument for trading away talent to acquire Baldellli or Crawford over our in house options.

Another very interesting projection is Joey Votto:

Votto, 630 PA: .284/.366/.511, 29 HR, 18/24 SB. That's right, PECOTA projects Votto as the second best offensive Red.

In terms of EqA:
1. Dunn .314
2. Votto .293
3. Junior .281
4. Denorfia .280
5. Encarnacion .279
6. Hatteberg .273
7. Freel .270
8. Ross .262
9. Bruce .260
10. Hatteberg .259
11. Phillips .256
12. Conine .252
13. Gil .249 (as a CF)
14. Gonzalez .247

Not saying that these projections are perfect, but at least one method of looking at things suggests that while Baldelli or Crawford would indeed be upgrades, perhaps not quite as big as you'd think. If Deno does not get a real shot (not just ST or 100 AB in April) at being an everyday OF, it speaks pretty poorly of the Reds brass. Yes, I know he could fail. He could be Brandon Larson. But everything from the scouting and statistic point of view suggests otherwise -- to say nothing of the fact that he's the best defensive option we have.

Degenerate39
01-17-2007, 01:50 PM
I'd be happy with Freel in centerfield. He's a better option than Griffey right now.

edabbs44
01-17-2007, 02:04 PM
Option #1: Denorfia

I agree 100%.

M2
01-17-2007, 02:08 PM
Nice post RMR. As you noted, the Reds already have a multi-faceted CF candidate, plus he's inexpensive.

What they need is some more thump in the lineup. The club had a .409 SLG after the All-Star break. That's a sad state of affairs. When Jr. gets injured this season (and you can bank on that happening), the team won't have much muscle.

Also, anyone have the PECOTAs for the Reds? Haven't seen those yet.

TOBTTReds
01-17-2007, 02:24 PM
I don't see any need to trade away ANYTHING to get a CF'er. We have two in house versions that would be successful. You trade to fill a position of need, not one of surplus already.

redsmetz
01-17-2007, 02:49 PM
Just a thought but Tampa Bay has two players who can play centerfield in Baldelli and Carl Crawford. Both of which would put up around 25 hrs at GABP, replacing the lost power from the Kearns trade. Both also would be a big upgrade defensively. What do you think it would take to get one of these guys? Id try Dunn, Deno, and a prospect for both but thats just dreamin. Any ideas?

It wouldn't be a week without an trade Dunn mention, right?

reds44
01-17-2007, 03:28 PM
Denorfia is the number 1 option. If you are going to trade for someone in Tampa, I'd be Elijah Dukes. However, it's time for Denorfia to play CF for us.

Handofdeath
01-17-2007, 03:30 PM
I think the Reds would be smart to wait until at least after this season before making any more big trades. It gives them time to see what the new coaches can do with the Reds and how the prospects are progressing. Milton's contract will be off the books and they will have a good idea about Dunn's status as well as Jr's. There is more than 30 million tied up in those 3 players and this season is pretty important in lot of ways. I think Milton is gone regardless. I think if Dunn manages .260/40/110 he stays long term and I think that Griffey is going to have another 100 game season and the Reds are going to buy out his last season if they can't trade him.

bucksfan2
01-17-2007, 03:36 PM
In my opinion Griffey is a better CF than Freel. Freel's speed enables him to cover much more gound but he doesnt get the jump on the ball that Jr. does. He doesn't make the smart play and takes too many risks. Dont you think that if Jr. thought Freel was a better CF that he would have moved over last year? I think Deno is probably a better defensive CF right now that Jr. but I dont see the reds sending him out there every day.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-17-2007, 03:55 PM
It wouldn't be a week without an trade Dunn mention, right?
I really don't want to trade Dunn, i was kinda kidding, but for Rocco and Crawford Id do it in a second.

StantontheRed
01-17-2007, 04:16 PM
I would love to see the Reds get Balldei(spelling)but they would have to be willing to part with 3 good young prospects and I dont know if he is worth it.I think it would cost the Reds atleast Dino(to take over for Balldei),Cueto,and Votto.I just dont think he would be worth that kind of package.But would love to see Cincy get him for the right price.

Dracodave
01-17-2007, 04:56 PM
In order to get Rocco, you start with Bailey and go down the list adding on to it.

RedsManRick
01-17-2007, 05:21 PM
An interesting thought -- there's something to be gained in terms by giving "ready" guys a shot. Think Brandon Larson; he was going to be the 3B of the future for a number of years -- he was "ready". However, it wasn't until he got a real endorsement and sufficient opportunity that he proved he couldn't hit in the majors. It allowed us to confidently get rid of him and move forward on other plans (hi EE!).

Once a propsect has shown he's ready to go, you need to know if he's major league quality or not. Otherwise, you end up counting on him as a potential replacement for the future without the knowledge if he's capable. I'm not saying you trade away players to make room for an unproven guy. However, when the opportunity arises, you have to use it.

We know what Freel can do. We think (some of us at least) that Deno can do more. If after 300 AB Deno hasn't come through, fine, go back to Freel and start planning for a different full time option in the future. You now know that Deno is a reserve at best and can plan accordingly.

If however, Freel plays full time and Deno ends up with say 150 decent PA, then what. Does Deno stay on the roster as a backup. Who's next in line? What is Deno really capable of? Could we have gotten more production out of him? You have to give him the chance.

nmculbreth
01-17-2007, 05:28 PM
One of the Reds biggest problems is the lack of trading chips, using any of our limited resources to fill a position where we have two very capable in-house candidates is the definition of insanity. If it were up to me Denorfia would be the opening day starter in CF, he's done everything you could possibly ask him to do in the minors and as a result has earned a shot at proving himself in the big leagues.

RedsManRick
01-17-2007, 05:29 PM
Nice post RMR. As you noted, the Reds already have a multi-faceted CF candidate, plus he's inexpensive.

What they need is some more thump in the lineup. The club had a .409 SLG after the All-Star break. That's a sad state of affairs. When Jr. gets injured this season (and you can bank on that happening), the team won't have much muscle.

Also, anyone have the PECOTAs for the Reds? Haven't seen those yet.

I just downloaded them today M2. I'm not sure if weight means is the same as the 50% PECOTA, but apparently it REALLY likes Votto and Deno shows up pretty solid as well.

forfreelin04
01-17-2007, 05:42 PM
I just downloaded them today M2. I'm not sure if weight means is the same as the 50% PECOTA, but apparently it REALLY likes Votto and Deno shows up pretty solid as well.

I'm not understanding the manlove for Denorfia since up until now he's done nothing but be a Brandon Larson like AAA All-Star. Granted he deserves a shot, but did anyone notice his first 20 or so plate appearances after the Trade consisted of ground outs to short? It took him quite awhile to make any adjustment to this. I didn't see it in person or on TV but he probably was shifting his weight early, allowing his torso to move forward in a lunging action, and then topping off on the ball. This is a Busch League mistake and it took him quite awhile to adjust. I understood that he was anxious since he was given a great chance in the Bigs. However, Deno needs to make adjustments, which is what Big Leaguers do. Then again, you can only watch Griffey and Dunn hit into the shift so many times before you stop making them.

flyer85
01-17-2007, 05:53 PM
but did anyone notice his first 20 or so plate appearances after the Trade consisted of ground outs to short?and after about another 20 or so he got it going. If Narron had not gone overboard who knows how it might have turned out.

Denorfia has never gotten a chance to show what he can do, it would be silly to not give him that opportunity now, especially since it isn't like the Reds are loaded in the OF.

BRM
01-17-2007, 05:55 PM
I'm not understanding the manlove for Denorfia since up until now he's done nothing but be a Brandon Larson like AAA All-Star. Granted he deserves a shot, but did anyone notice his first 20 or so plate appearances after the Trade consisted of ground outs to short? It took him quite awhile to make any adjustment to this. I didn't see it in person or on TV but he probably was shifting his weight early, allowing his torso to move forward in a lunging action, and then topping off on the ball. This is a Busch League mistake and it took him quite awhile to adjust. I understood that he was anxious since he was given a great chance in the Bigs. However, Deno needs to make adjustments, which is what Big Leaguers do. Then again, you can only watch Griffey and Dunn hit into the shift so many times before you stop making them.

I'd say he made those adjustments by his September performance. He finished 2006 hitting very well.

Chip R
01-17-2007, 05:56 PM
I'd say he made those adjustments by his September performance. He finished 2006 hitting very well.


Yes, that's the difference between Deno and Larson. Deno made the adjustments and Larson didn't.

DaReds22
01-18-2007, 10:57 AM
I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.

flyer85
01-18-2007, 11:23 AM
Deno made the adjustments and Larson didn't.Larson just didn't have the ability. He was atrocious defensively and a free swinger at the plate. He got exposed at the major league level.

Jpup
01-18-2007, 12:12 PM
I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.

yeah, that would be great. Where would the Reds get offense from?:bang:

dfs
01-18-2007, 12:45 PM
I just downloaded them today M2. I'm not sure if weight means is the same as the 50% PECOTA, but apparently it REALLY likes Votto and Deno shows up pretty solid as well.

BP's systems have a long and storied tradition of over estimating what young players can do. It date's back to Gary Huckaby's systems. It's .....It's part of their theology. That's not to say that Votto and Deno can't play, because they darn well can. It's just something to be aware of. PECOTA tends to inflate younger players on the cusp of real playing time. Where it's usually better than other systems is catching the older player who is very likely to crater. That's what seperates BP's methodology from the linear weights guys. I don't think Nate has changed it much.

Handofdeath
01-18-2007, 02:59 PM
I dont think the Reds need to go chasing after any out fielders they have good enough out fielders in Dunn,Grif,freel, and denorfiea. If it was up to me i would try to trade dunn for some releif help in the closer role.

Yes, they do need OF's. Griffey is 37 and cannot stay healthy. Dunn is high priced and if his stats continue to drop for the third straight year the Reds won't be able to justify paying over 12 million a year for him so this season will be it. Freel is 31 years old and injury prone. Denorfia is unproven at the Major League level. The Reds are in real trouble in the OF. It might have been better if they had loaded up on OF's instead of relievers in the offseason.

Tom Servo
01-18-2007, 03:02 PM
I'm just terrified by the fact that Bernie Williams, Steve Finley, and Darin Erstad are all out there on the market to tempt Wayne.

Highlifeman21
01-20-2007, 12:12 PM
Option #1: Denorfia

That would just make too much sense.

It seems many have already given up on Denorfia, even after he finished the 2006 campaign on fire.

Some even prefer Norris Hopper over Denorfia. Boggles the mind.

jmac
01-20-2007, 01:02 PM
and after about another 20 or so he got it going. If Narron had not gone overboard who knows how it might have turned out.

Denorfia has never gotten a chance to show what he can do, it would be silly to not give him that opportunity now, especially since it isn't like the Reds are loaded in the OF.

Exactly.
Many forget Deno started hitting much better with the more AB's he got.
Plus Deno/Freel are the reds only legitimate leadoff hitters as of right now and I sure would rather see one of them rather than the reds having gone after ....say pierre.

RedsManRick
01-20-2007, 01:28 PM
Larson wasn't a top notch defensive CF. When you're a mediocre defending 3B, you darn well better hit. If Deno can put up a .750 OPS, he becomes a league average or better CF immediately. I don't think people are saying that Deno is the greatest CF ever or that we should pencil him in to CF for the next 5 years. But given the current roster, not giving him a real significant chance to be the everyday guy is just a poor use of talent.

jojo
01-20-2007, 01:49 PM
Larson wasn't a top notch defensive CF. When you're a mediocre defending 3B, you darn well better hit. If Deno can put up a .750 OPS, he becomes a league average or better CF immediately. I don't think people are saying that Deno is the greatest CF ever or that we should pencil him in to CF for the next 5 years. But given the current roster, not giving him a real significant chance to be the everyday guy is just a poor use of talent.

Right. Besides, IMHO, replacing a below average CF who's being paid $12.5M/yr with a league average one who's making under $400K/yr represents a huge upgrade at a premium position. Pecota projects Denorfia to have about .064 more OPS than the major league average CFer from '06. His glove is probably at least league average there as well. Denorfia has the potential to be a 3 win centerfielder. At his salary and considering the blackhole in centerfield last year, that would be a big deal.

Betterread
01-20-2007, 02:35 PM
I'm comfortable with Denorfia playing CF and hitting at the top of the order, with Freel getting some games at CF (20-30) and even Griffey playing there 10-15 games. This means that Denorfia can concentrate on his fielding and getting on base, both of which are skills he can command. I don't expect him to hit 20+ HRs like he did in the minors, but if he can OPS over 775, that is acceptable for a few years, until a better talent can be brought in.

I(heart)Freel
01-20-2007, 02:39 PM
The thread title I know aleady asks us to assume Junior will move, which is good for the purpose of debate. But should we factor his "blessing" in on this discussion?

Would Junior leave his all-century post... for Deno?

I just don't see it. And believe you me, this is not about what should be. I personally think it would be best for everyone for Junior to shift to right. Or at least be open to that. But this isn't about that. It's about what Junior would do. Or what the Reds FO will ask him to do.

And I'm just not sure. I think it would take an MLB-proven centerfielder to persuade Junior to move. It would be, in his mind, a slap in his proud face to be asked to move for anyone less.

jmac
01-20-2007, 03:43 PM
The thread title I know aleady asks us to assume Junior will move, which is good for the purpose of debate. But should we factor his "blessing" in on this discussion?

Would Junior leave his all-century post... for Deno?

I just don't see it. And believe you me, this is not about what should be. I personally think it would be best for everyone for Junior to shift to right. Or at least be open to that. But this isn't about that. It's about what Junior would do. Or what the Reds FO will ask him to do.

And I'm just not sure. I think it would take an MLB-proven centerfielder to persuade Junior to move. It would be, in his mind, a slap in his proud face to be asked to move for anyone less.
My problem is Jr still saying the "someone better" like there is none better in house.
Did Jr not see all the Freel highlights from last year and Deno had a few as well.
Common sense would tell a 37 year old that someone younger could cover more ground.I am a Jr fan but this baffles me unless it is merely a face-saving move on his part.If that is the case, I think i would use the "moving to preserve my career" line.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-20-2007, 05:06 PM
My problem is Jr still saying the "someone better" like there is none better in house.
Did Jr not see all the Freel highlights from last year and Deno had a few as well.
Common sense would tell a 37 year old that someone younger could cover more ground.I am a Jr fan but this baffles me unless it is merely a face-saving move on his part.If that is the case, I think i would use the "moving to preserve my career" line.

I think KGJ knows that Deno and Freel can cover the outfield better than he can, atleast I hope he does. IMO he is saying anyone better because neither of these guys have extended CF playing time under their belt. He can get away with saying this because who knows how either will fair playing there for a full season. I think that he feels that with his deserved reputation as one of the best of all time that he would move to right if a top level centerfielder were to replace him. I mean think about it, a guy with his achievments, injuries aside, would have to be having a hard time moving positions to be replaced by a platoon player or a guy who has had little major league experience or success. Not to say that I don't think it's the right move, but there have been situations in the past when guys have refused to move positions with far better or shall I say proven replacements waiting in the wings.

jojo
01-21-2007, 01:14 PM
BP's systems have a long and storied tradition of over estimating what young players can do. It date's back to Gary Huckaby's systems...................PECOTA tends to inflate younger players on the cusp of real playing time.

What makes you say this? I'd love to hear your thoughts...

redsfan4445
01-22-2007, 06:49 AM
i saw this on yahoo inside dish:

"Rios is seeking $3.1 million in arbitration, and the Jays are offering $2 million. If Rios wins, his salary could make him more likely to be dealt before opening day. No matter what happens with Rios, the Jays will talk about trading productive LF Reed Johnson. He is seeking $3.6 million in arbitration; the club is offering $2.5 million. . . . "

I would love to see Rios in CF.. MAYBE this is the player WK is after.. he has power and is young.. and whatabout a Deno/Travis Wood offer for Rios???
i would do it!

Tom Servo
01-22-2007, 08:12 AM
i saw this on yahoo inside dish:

"Rios is seeking $3.1 million in arbitration, and the Jays are offering $2 million. If Rios wins, his salary could make him more likely to be dealt before opening day. No matter what happens with Rios, the Jays will talk about trading productive LF Reed Johnson. He is seeking $3.6 million in arbitration; the club is offering $2.5 million. . . . "

I would love to see Rios in CF.. MAYBE this is the player WK is after.. he has power and is young.. and whatabout a Deno/Travis Wood offer for Rios???
i would do it!
Blue Jays want major league starting pitching for Rios, and unless Riccardi has changed his mind on Milton or is really into Lohse we don't have any starters to spare.