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View Full Version : "The Trade" Arbitration #'s



Red Rover
01-18-2007, 04:16 PM
Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and 2B Felipe Lopez have exchanged arbitration figures. Lopez is looking for a $4.1 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.7 million offer.

Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and OF Austin Kearns have exchanged arbitration figures. Kearns is looking for a $4.25 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.65 million offer.

jojo
01-18-2007, 04:18 PM
Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and 2B Felipe Lopez have exchanged arbitration figures. Lopez is looking for a $4.1 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.7 million offer.

Bill Ladson, of Nationals.MLB.com, reports the Washington Nationals and OF Austin Kearns have exchanged arbitration figures. Kearns is looking for a $4.25 million salary, while the Nationals countered with a $3.65 million offer.

I can't imagine that the Nats would go to arbitration with they're that close on both guys....

noskill27
01-18-2007, 04:19 PM
Neither is worth that much, imo

RedsManRick
01-18-2007, 04:51 PM
Interesting. I still think we can agree that:

1.) We could have gotten more in return in terms of talent

and

2.) We could've spent the money saved more wisely than on Alex Gonzalez and Mike Stanton

That said, the salary savings of over $7 Mil has quite a bit of value (even if misappropriated) and should be considered as we consider the return we got in the deal.

dougdirt
01-18-2007, 04:59 PM
If that money saved helps us get Aaron Harang to a LTC, then it was worth it.... Now Wayne just needs to make it happen.

TRF
01-18-2007, 05:03 PM
Well since FeLo will be playing 2B, and ESPN has him listed as one, let's look at the top 10 2B in the NL:


RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Chase Utley PHI 658 131 203 40 4 32 102 15 4 63 .309 .379 .527 .906
2 Jamey Carroll COL 463 84 139 23 5 5 36 10 12 56 .300 .377 .404 .781
3 Ray Durham SFO 498 79 146 30 7 26 93 7 2 51 .293 .360 .538 .898
4 Jose Vidro WAS 463 52 134 26 1 7 47 1 0 41 .289 .348 .395 .744
5 Orlando Hudson ARI 579 87 166 34 9 15 67 9 6 61 .287 .354 .454 .809
6 Dan Uggla FLA 611 105 172 26 7 27 90 6 6 48 .282 .339 .480 .818
7 Josh Barfield SDG 539 72 151 32 3 13 58 21 5 30 .280 .318 .423 .741
8 Brandon Phillips CIN 536 65 148 28 1 17 75 25 2 35 .276 .324 .427 .751
9 Felipe Lopez CIN/WAS 617 98 169 27 3 11 52 44 12 81 .274 .358 .381 .739
10 Marcus Giles ATL 550 87 144 32 2 11 60 10 5 62 .262 .341 .387 .729


There is a lot of youth on that list, so it's hard to say if FeLo is worth the money. Durham and Vidro both made 7 mil last year. Though FeLo had the worst SLG of the top 10 2B (sorted by BA) his OBP was 4th best in the NL for 2B. Ahead of Uggla, Giles, Hudson and Brandon Phillips. He also had nearly twice as many SB's as the next highest total for the position. Given his service time, I'd say he's worth the money. And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

Which I think he can.

dfs
01-18-2007, 05:05 PM
I can't imagine that the Nats would go to arbitration with they're that close on both guys....

That's Jim Bowden over there. He'll go after any little win he can get.

Handofdeath
01-18-2007, 05:15 PM
Well since FeLo will be playing 2B, and ESPN has him listed as one, let's look at the top 10 2B in the NL:


RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Chase Utley PHI 658 131 203 40 4 32 102 15 4 63 .309 .379 .527 .906
2 Jamey Carroll COL 463 84 139 23 5 5 36 10 12 56 .300 .377 .404 .781
3 Ray Durham SFO 498 79 146 30 7 26 93 7 2 51 .293 .360 .538 .898
4 Jose Vidro WAS 463 52 134 26 1 7 47 1 0 41 .289 .348 .395 .744
5 Orlando Hudson ARI 579 87 166 34 9 15 67 9 6 61 .287 .354 .454 .809
6 Dan Uggla FLA 611 105 172 26 7 27 90 6 6 48 .282 .339 .480 .818
7 Josh Barfield SDG 539 72 151 32 3 13 58 21 5 30 .280 .318 .423 .741
8 Brandon Phillips CIN 536 65 148 28 1 17 75 25 2 35 .276 .324 .427 .751
9 Felipe Lopez CIN/WAS 617 98 169 27 3 11 52 44 12 81 .274 .358 .381 .739
10 Marcus Giles ATL 550 87 144 32 2 11 60 10 5 62 .262 .341 .387 .729


There is a lot of youth on that list, so it's hard to say if FeLo is worth the money. Durham and Vidro both made 7 mil last year. Though FeLo had the worst SLG of the top 10 2B (sorted by BA) his OBP was 4th best in the NL for 2B. Ahead of Uggla, Giles, Hudson and Brandon Phillips. He also had nearly twice as many SB's as the next highest total for the position. Given his service time, I'd say he's worth the money. And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

Which I think he can.

I'm sure he can make the switch but will he be any good? He's horrible in the field, at least at SS and I think the power he showed in 2005 was an aberration and helped along by a pretty good offensive team. If he can continue to get BB's and hit like last year, the Nationals have themselves a pretty good leadoff hitter. The question is how will he do defensively?

FutureRedsGM
01-18-2007, 05:16 PM
And if he can return to the 15-20 HR numbers, with his SB prowess, he might be one of the better players at the 2B position, if he can handle the switch defensively.

Which I think he can.

I'm not sure that anyone can expect FeLo to put up GABP numbers in Wash.

TRF
01-18-2007, 05:20 PM
I'm not sure that anyone can expect FeLo to put up GABP numbers in Wash.

He does play on the road too, if I remember correctly. All he needs to do is manage 4-5 HR's at home, 8-10 on the road. plus the steals and OBP.

And I think he'll be fine defensively at 2B.

He's going to be very good at 2B for a long time IMO.

Handofdeath
01-18-2007, 05:43 PM
He does play on the road too, if I remember correctly. All he needs to do is manage 4-5 HR's at home, 8-10 on the road. plus the steals and OBP.

And I think he'll be fine defensively at 2B.

He's going to be very good at 2B for a long time IMO.

Per MLB.com

One day after it was revealed that the Nationals are close to sending second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners for outfielder Chris Snelling and right-hander Emiliano Fruto, pending physicals, Felipe Lopez said he will make the switch from shortstop to second base for Washington in 2007.
Lopez, 26, made the decision last week after talking to general manager Jim Bowden on the phone and manager Manny Acta in a face-to-face meeting in Orlando. It was Bowden who explained to Lopez that Cristian Guzman has no experience at second base and that Lopez was the logical choice to make a position switch.

Lopez has played 12 games at second base during his career, and there are people in the front office and scouts around the league who feel that he is a far superior second baseman and third baseman than he is a shortstop.

The last time Lopez played second base was in 2005 with the Reds. The plan is for Barry Larkin, Bowden's special advisor, to tutor Lopez at the position during Spring Training.

Acta also asked Lopez about playing second and Lopez said he would do anything to help the team win -- except for playing left field or catcher.

"I have no problem playing second base," Lopez said by phone late Tuesday afternoon. "I played there before. I just have to go to Spring Training and work at it. I haven't played there in a long time. It should not be hard. Of course, I would like to be at short, but due to circumstances, I don't mind playing second."

The visit from Acta gave Lopez the feeling that his new boss wants to win in 2007, not in two or three years.

"There is a lot of talent on the team, and we should play as a team and work on the fundamentals," Lopez said. "We should have a chance to win, instead of waiting because of a rebuilding year."

Lopez also will be the leadoff hitter, replacing Alfonso Soriano, who signed a $136 million contract with the Cubs. Last season, Lopez batted second most of the time and hit .274 with 11 home runs, 52 RBIs and 44 stolen bases. He set career highs in walks (81), runs (98) and stolen bases. Lopez believes he will be a solid leadoff hitter.



Complete coverage >
"Hitting leadoff will not be a big transition for me. I was getting on base hitting second behind Soriano," Lopez said. "I'm going to treat it the same -- just get on base like I did last year and score a lot of runs.

"I'm looking to improve, however. I want to cut down on the strikeouts. Even though I walked a lot, I want to put the ball in play a lot more and be aggressive."

In other news, Vidro will have his physical on Friday and the trade between the Nationals and Mariners will become official that same day.


Maybe with Larkin tutoring he'll have a chance to be pretty good.

Degenerate39
01-18-2007, 06:52 PM
Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?

RedsManRick
01-18-2007, 06:55 PM
Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?

But then we wouldn't have Gary Majewski, the carass of Royce Clayton, and the who knows what he'll ever do Daryl Thompson!

membengal
01-18-2007, 06:58 PM
Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?


Yes. But that kind of thought tends to get ridiculed around here, so good luck with the musing. Rest assured you are not alone...

jojo
01-18-2007, 10:35 PM
Here's my take on Lopez's worth/value:

Based upon Pecota projections, Lopez should be good for about 82 RC in '07. Only 6 second baseman had more than 82 RC in the majors during '06. Estimating his VORP as a second baseman, it's roughly projected to be 25 (Pecota projects him with a VORP of 32 as a SS so I had to do some tweaking for him as a second baseman so for rough justice don't trust my spreadsheet and lets say its somewhere between 25-32).

Assuming Lopez wins his arbitration case, that makes him a 2.5-3 win player (before considering defense) for $4.1M. I don't know how his defense will be at second, but my guess is he won't be league average. The fielding bible suggests his biggest weakness is to his right so the switch to second means his range will be exposed in the hole up the middle. None of the *gold standard * defensive systems liked Lopez at short last year (PMR:-17 runs and UZR= -21 runs). The general consensus was that he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the majors. Second base is farther left on the defensive spectrum but only just to the left so it's not like he is moving to firstbase. Maybe a decent rough estimate is that Lopez is a -10 defender at second given his weakness toward the hole (think Adam Kennedy, Jeff Kent, or Rickie Weeks with the leather). So basically Lopez would be somewhere around a 2 win player given the sum of his bat and glove. That would make him a $2M/win player which makes him a good value (current going rate is $2.5 to 3M/win).

I don't get why Bowden would nickel and dime Lopez in arbitration. I would've guessed that he would try to buy out his arb eligible years rather than argue with Lopez in an arbitration hearing. Maybe its the Boras factor?

Lopez is a value even if he wins his arb hearing. However, depending upon his future raises, '07 might be the last season this can be said about him.

jojo
01-18-2007, 11:12 PM
Wouldn't it have been better for us offensively if we kept Lopez switched him to 2nd base and Phillips to shortstop?

Absolutely.

However, without going into a long winded post, here's a rough estimate. The difference in offense is probably negated by the defense (assuming Phillips is a league average shortstop and Lopez is somewhere between -5 and -10 runs as a second baseman-and these are just educated guesses while Phillips is +3 as a second baseman and Gonzo is about a +8 shortstop-with these being PMR ratings from '06).

Assuming 500 Ab for each guy, here are the projected RC based upon Pecota:

Offense:
Phillips/Lopez: 150 RC
Phillips/Gonzalez: 133 RC

So its a about 1.7 wins difference with the bats.

Defense:
Phillips/Lopez: -5 to -10 runs
Phillips/Gonzo: +11 runs

Overall, either combo is roughly around 140-145 RC after factoring in the defense.

The nice thing about simply flipping Phillips and Lopez would've been the Reds could've had Lopez for $4.1M (if the reported arb numbers are correct) with the ability to jettison him after '07 by simply letting him go if push came to shove. The Reds are locked into Gonzo for the next three years.

Ltlabner
01-22-2007, 09:04 PM
Lopez, Nationals agree to $3.9 million, 1-year deal (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-nationals-lopez&prov=ap&type=lgns)

January 22, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Felipe Lopez and the Washington Nationals avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3.9 million, one-year deal Monday.

Lopez and the club met right in the middle: He had asked for $4.1 million when he filed for arbitration, while the Nationals submitted a $3.7 million offer. Lopez made $2.7 million last year.

He's played most of his major league career as a shortstop but has agreed to shift to second base in 2007, when he's expected to be Washington's leadoff hitter.

The Nationals acquired Lopez in July in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds. He batted .274 overall in 2006, with 11 homers, 52 RBIs and 44 steals.

Lopez's best season came with the Reds in 2005, when he was an All-Star and hit .291 with 23 homers and 85 RBIs.

The agreement left four Nationals in arbitration: starter John Patterson, closer Chad Cordero, and outfielders Austin Kearns and Alex Escobar.