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View Full Version : SI.com Top 75 prospects; Votto #32



dougdirt
01-22-2007, 01:17 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/01/19/prospects.partiii/1.html

32. Joey Votto, 23, 1b, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (AA): .319/.408/.547, 24 SB in 508 AB

Votto is the rare prospect who finds himself in the middle of the contact skills, power and intelligence Venn diagram. While the power is obvious, Votto's smarts are more subtle: He has fantastic patience, plus-baserunning instincts and has become a plus-defender at first base. After striking out 54 times in his first 56 games, Votto began making contact more often, whiffing just 55 times in his last 80 games. Very nearly a polished product, Votto's only remaining work is an improvement against southpaws after slugging .399 against left-handers in 2006. Nonetheless, he remains an early 2008 Rookie of the Year favorite.

BoydsOfSummer
01-22-2007, 07:37 PM
That is the same Bryan Smith that used to be at The Baseball Analysts isn't it?

Superdude
01-22-2007, 08:50 PM
As gay as these prospect lists usually are, I didn't notice the drop in Votto's K rate. Nice work SI for not just looking up the stats and summarizing a scouting report they ganked from Baseball America.

dougdirt
01-22-2007, 09:02 PM
That is the same Bryan Smith....he is now freelancing

jmcclain19
01-23-2007, 01:39 AM
No Jay Bruce or Homer yet makes me believe he rates both as Top 15 material.

Top 15 are due out tomorrow

dougdirt
01-23-2007, 01:42 PM
The top 15 just came out.

15. Jay Bruce, 20, RF, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (Class A-): .291/.355/.516, 19 SB in 444 AB

Bruce had a historic season for a teen-ager in the Midwest League, showing left-handed power unrivaled for a player of his maturity. Like so many young left-handed hitters, Bruce has work to do with southpaws, striking out in 30 percent of his at-bats against them in 2006. This is not what scares me. What does is the context within Bruce's numbers and the similarities they bear to Brian Dopirak's legendary Midwest League season in 2004. That year Dopirak became wildly hyped in prospect circles, but I made note of a 27-game stretch during the summer in which he was a decidedly better player than the rest of the season, which is the same thing that happened to Bruce in 2006. In 33 games between June 4 and July 10, Bruce was amazing, hitting .427 and clubbing 24 extra-base hits. The rest of the season? A paltry .238 batting average. However, his power did remain consistent throughout the season, so I am now cautiously confident in Bruce's future.

3. Homer Bailey, 21, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.47 ERA, 99H/138.2IP, 156K/50BB

A year ago, things did not add up with Homer Bailey. The prep star's full season debut began in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, where he allowed a 7.73 H/9, struck out 125 batters and allowed just five home runs in just over 100 innings. However, his ERA was 4.43. The reason? Sixty-two walks, indicating poor command that Bailey had not shown as a high schooler. The anomalies I saw straightened themselves out in 2006, when Bailey became the game's best pitching prospect. The electricity of Bailey's stuff -- the life of his fastball and break on his curve -- are fantastic, and Bailey already attacks hitters like a veteran. In 2005, Bailey walked fewer than two batters just six times. In 2006, he raised the number to nine starts. If he can make a 50 percent improvement on that number again next season, Bailey will finish the year in Cincinnati.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/01/23/prospects.partv/1.html

dougdirt
01-23-2007, 02:10 PM
Also, I went and ran the numbers. If you take out August, when Jay was playing through injury, and the June 4-July 10 that Bryan mentions, Jay still OPS'd at exactly .800 for those 260 at bats.
Bryan wants to discount Jays 124 at bat stretch from June-July where he went absolutely crazy but I dont think you can just toss out 28% of someones season and say it could point to something of a demise around the corner.

kaldaniels
01-24-2007, 12:25 AM
The top 15 just came out.

15. Jay Bruce, 20, RF, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (Class A-): .291/.355/.516, 19 SB in 444 AB

Bruce had a historic season for a teen-ager in the Midwest League, showing left-handed power unrivaled for a player of his maturity. Like so many young left-handed hitters, Bruce has work to do with southpaws, striking out in 30 percent of his at-bats against them in 2006. This is not what scares me. What does is the context within Bruce's numbers and the similarities they bear to Brian Dopirak's legendary Midwest League season in 2004. That year Dopirak became wildly hyped in prospect circles, but I made note of a 27-game stretch during the summer in which he was a decidedly better player than the rest of the season, which is the same thing that happened to Bruce in 2006. In 33 games between June 4 and July 10, Bruce was amazing, hitting .427 and clubbing 24 extra-base hits. The rest of the season? A paltry .238 batting average. However, his power did remain consistent throughout the season, so I am now cautiously confident in Bruce's future.

3. Homer Bailey, 21, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.47 ERA, 99H/138.2IP, 156K/50BB

A year ago, things did not add up with Homer Bailey. The prep star's full season debut began in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, where he allowed a 7.73 H/9, struck out 125 batters and allowed just five home runs in just over 100 innings. However, his ERA was 4.43. The reason? Sixty-two walks, indicating poor command that Bailey had not shown as a high schooler. The anomalies I saw straightened themselves out in 2006, when Bailey became the game's best pitching prospect. The electricity of Bailey's stuff -- the life of his fastball and break on his curve -- are fantastic, and Bailey already attacks hitters like a veteran. In 2005, Bailey walked fewer than two batters just six times. In 2006, he raised the number to nine starts. If he can make a 50 percent improvement on that number again next season, Bailey will finish the year in Cincinnati.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/01/23/prospects.partv/1.html

That is just awesome to read.

Cooper
01-24-2007, 02:01 PM
It strikes me as bad analysis when you attempt to limit or heighten the skills of a player by taking out a sample size that doesn't fit a pre-conceived notion. Why do such a thing --especially when hits such a big part of the whole (as dougdirt reported).

Eventually someone is gonna say "if you take out all of Adam Dunn's base hits from his 07 season...he ends up hitting .000. And that really worries me about his ability to hit next season."

It's akin to what Reggie Rucker (the worst announcer of NFL games i have ever heard) used to say "good (running) backs make good yards." I still am not sure what that means, but I'm almost certain it had to do with sample size:).

Puffy
01-24-2007, 03:45 PM
It strikes me as bad analysis when you attempt to limit or heighten the skills of a player by taking out a sample size that doesn't fit a pre-conceived notion. Why do such a thing --especially when hits such a big part of the whole (as dougdirt reported).

Eventually someone is gonna say "if you take out all of Adam Dunn's base hits from his 07 season...he ends up hitting .000. And that really worries me about his ability to hit next season."

It's akin to what Reggie Rucker (the worst announcer of NFL games i have ever heard) used to say "good (running) backs make good yards." I still am not sure what that means, but I'm almost certain it had to do with sample size:).

Well, in his defense, he was doing it as a comparsion to a prospect who has basically disappered since his monster stretch.

HBP
01-24-2007, 07:43 PM
Eventually someone is gonna say "if you take out all of Adam Dunn's base hits from his 07 season...he ends up hitting .000. And that really worries me about his ability to hit next season."



But what was his OPS?
;)

dougdirt
01-24-2007, 08:50 PM
But what was his OPS?
;)

Probably around .130ish

wolfboy
01-25-2007, 12:19 AM
Well, in his defense, he was doing it as a comparsion to a prospect who has basically disappered since his monster stretch.

I wasn't familiar with Dopirak prior to reading this thread. That is an unbelievable fall for a prospect. It doesn't appear that he suffered from an injury that kept him off of the field (at least in '05). Is there any explanation for what happened to this guy? His OPS took a drop of almost 300 from one season to the next. How strange. I certaintly hope that Bruce does not suffer the same fate.