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cincrazy
01-22-2007, 11:04 PM
Unlike some, I do feel that Wayne Krivsky has a plan. As some have pointed out around here, WK has been signing veterans to "bridge the gap" so to speak to the youngsters we have coming up through the system within a few years. While this is a solid plan on the surface, it also scares me a little bit.

An organization like Minnesota or Oakland could afford to do something like this, but we are basically depending on ALL of our top prospects to work out. Great farm systems have DEPTH, and if one doesn't work out, they have loads of other options. Unfortunately, we don't have that.

We have some really nice top prospects, but I just don't see the depth in our minor league system. We're relying on Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and a few other's to work out by 2009, but what if they don't? What happens if one of them gets hurt, or regresses for another reason?

I love the fact that WK is trying to get younger, and banking on these young player's is probably the ONLY way to make this franchise better, but I'm just afraid of what might happen if a few of these guys don't work out. It's going to take a long time for this farm system to get back to where it should be, and I'm afraid that we won't be CONSISTENT contender's until that actually happens.

Here's hoping that Bailey, Votto, Bruce and other's ALL work out. Because if a few of them don't, the cupboard could be looking pretty bare in a few years.

It just shows you what kind of predicament the Reds are in because of crappy management for a decade. We don't have the money to spend to go out and immediately improve our team through FA, and we don't have the depth in the farm system to immediately turn things around either. WK has a lot of work to do... I can't say that I envy his position

Note: This is in no way, shape or form stating that any of these guys are busts, or that they won't work out. But history seems to indicate that the chances of them ALL working out are slim, and to me it seems that, so far, that's what the Reds are leaning on for a massive turnaround. Not all "top" prospects work out... there has to be some depth, and I just don't see it with us unfortunately.

Handofdeath
01-22-2007, 11:14 PM
Well said. WK came into this job with not much to work with and still helped this team stay in the playoff hunt until the end. Considering the recent lack of success by the Reds I would hope those facts would cause some people to cut him a little slack.

Will M
01-22-2007, 11:18 PM
Check out the recent discussions on the minor league forum regarding the Reds top 15-20 prospects. We have more depth than I had thought.

Bigredfan#1
01-23-2007, 12:00 AM
Although I agree we need to develop talent and we have some (Bailey, Bruce and Votto) what I didn't agree with was the Kearns and Lopez trade. I felt that either of them would have been plenty to get what the Reds got and both of them was way, way out of line. BAD TRADE that may come back to haunt us later. Both were young players!!

M2
01-23-2007, 01:01 AM
Nice post cincrazy. IMO, if Krivsky's consciously looking to "bridge the gap," then he's got to add more young talent so that he's got something on the other side of the gap. As you noted, the Reds have no margin for error. In fact, they probably don't have enough even if the top kids from the system all make it in the next three to four years. Getting more young bodies is imperative.

bucksfan2
01-23-2007, 08:38 AM
Krivsky has a plan but he also knows he has the backing of ownership and a long term deal. Obie had always stated that he was on a 5 year plan but he was never guarenteed that service time. Krivsky has the backing of ownership which makes his controversial deals easier to make (the TRADE). I dont mind him not doing much in free agency this offseason with the amount of money average players were getting. Once the Milton contract is off the books this offseason I think you will see Krivsky throw around a little more money. I also dont think the key to the future of the reds is investing insane money in the Ted Lilly's of the world. I would hope that Harang gets an extention some time this year. I hope a decision on Dunn is made this year, either extend his contract or trade him. I hope something is done about the Freel/Deno platoon.

This year's club probably has the same potential as last year's did. If they get off to a good start they would probably be able to hang around in either the NL Central or Wild Card for a while. HoBail is probably the key to any success that the reds will have. What I do not want to see is the same team that starts this season be the same one to start the 08 season. I know that is looking far into the future but some decisions need to be made in this offseason as well as in this season.

cincrazy
01-23-2007, 08:55 AM
M2, I couldn't agree more. It seems that for way too many years, and this even goes beyond the WK regime, our minor league teams have been filled with league journeyman in their mid to late 20's. We haven't had a true good crop of young bodies in a long time, and I really hope that some time soon WK starts to fix that, and I think he will.

Is anyone else sick of seeing the Reggie Taylor and Ruben Rivera-like player's on our AAA team? It's high time that changes. Hopefully WK is the man to get it done.

George Anderson
01-23-2007, 09:22 AM
Nice post cincrazy. IMO, if Krivsky's consciously looking to "bridge the gap," then he's got to add more young talent so that he's got something on the other side of the gap. As you noted, the Reds have no margin for error. In fact, they probably don't have enough even if the top kids from the system all make it in the next three to four years. Getting more young bodies is imperative.

Couldnt agree more!! Look at the 1970's teams and the 1990 team. The coreplayers of those teams were from the farm system. The main focus of WK should be to make the farm system the absolute best in MLB. This is not rocket science, see what has worked in the past and copy it!!

flyer85
01-23-2007, 09:29 AM
I hope the plan is to build a winner, it's the implementation that bothers me.

Kc61
01-23-2007, 09:57 AM
Unlike some, I do feel that Wayne Krivsky has a plan. As some have pointed out around here, WK has been signing veterans to "bridge the gap" so to speak to the youngsters we have coming up through the system within a few years. While this is a solid plan on the surface, it also scares me a little bit.

Note: This is in no way, shape or form stating that any of these guys are busts, or that they won't work out. But history seems to indicate that the chances of them ALL working out are slim, and to me it seems that, so far, that's what the Reds are leaning on for a massive turnaround. Not all "top" prospects work out... there has to be some depth, and I just don't see it with us unfortunately.

I agree with your analysis. What is unfortunate, and frustrating for fans, is that the Reds right now have two excellent starting pitchers and with one or two more good ones the team could be ok in the short term. Not great, but competitive. But long term it is pretty clear which way Krivsky wants to go.

I also agree with your "note." People shouldn't assume that Bailey, Bruce and Votto will all be major league stars. And once you get past those three, the Reds' farm system is pretty ordinary, although Krivsky did add some depth with last year's draft. He also added draft choices for 2007 so the system should add a number of good prospects this coming year.

One more solid starting pitcher and I think people would relax a bit more looking forward to the upcoming season.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-23-2007, 10:11 AM
Unlike some, I do feel that Wayne Krivsky has a plan. As some have pointed out around here, WK has been signing veterans to "bridge the gap" so to speak to the youngsters we have coming up through the system within a few years. While this is a solid plan on the surface, it also scares me a little bit.

An organization like Minnesota or Oakland could afford to do something like this, but we are basically depending on ALL of our top prospects to work out. Great farm systems have DEPTH, and if one doesn't work out, they have loads of other options. Unfortunately, we don't have that.

We have some really nice top prospects, but I just don't see the depth in our minor league system. We're relying on Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and a few other's to work out by 2009, but what if they don't? What happens if one of them gets hurt, or regresses for another reason?

I love the fact that WK is trying to get younger, and banking on these young player's is probably the ONLY way to make this franchise better, but I'm just afraid of what might happen if a few of these guys don't work out. It's going to take a long time for this farm system to get back to where it should be, and I'm afraid that we won't be CONSISTENT contender's until that actually happens.

Here's hoping that Bailey, Votto, Bruce and other's ALL work out. Because if a few of them don't, the cupboard could be looking pretty bare in a few years.

It just shows you what kind of predicament the Reds are in because of crappy management for a decade. We don't have the money to spend to go out and immediately improve our team through FA, and we don't have the depth in the farm system to immediately turn things around either. WK has a lot of work to do... I can't say that I envy his position

Note: This is in no way, shape or form stating that any of these guys are busts, or that they won't work out. But history seems to indicate that the chances of them ALL working out are slim, and to me it seems that, so far, that's what the Reds are leaning on for a massive turnaround. Not all "top" prospects work out... there has to be some depth, and I just don't see it with us unfortunately.
I think it's a pretty solid bet that Votto, Bailey, and Bruce will work out. How many MLB teams have had much more than three solid came up through the system kind of guys all at one time. I'm sure it has but in this day and age it's rare. Wayne doesn't have much choise right now, this is what he has been dealt and he may have to bluff his way to a winner. That being said, with a number one pitcher, a top notch 1B, and a highly regarded CF in the waiting I think he can make it work. One thing that I think is important is looking at some of the guys we have now that could be here when these guys are ready. Number one Adam Dunn, can he get better and lower the K's a bit and raise the AVG. If so we are just a rightfielder away from a very respectable OF. Deno may already me that guy. So It's Dunn, Bruce, and Deno in the outfield. Votto at 1B, Phillips at 2B, EE at third, and hopefully Ross is all of what he was last year. That leaves the shortstop position left to fill. What else is new. Now onto the pitching staff. Harrang needs to be signed long term and could make a solid 1 2 punch with homer. We are saying EZ should be in the rotation right now and he's young. I think he projects as atleast a lights out number four. That leaves a #3 and #5 to fill. Again what else is new. The Bullpen has some young guys that will still be around, with Bray, and Coffey and the rest will work itself out with time and free agency( Hopefully). IMO it looks pretty good to me and we should have some money to spend at this time, and WK will have a chance to draft some of these positions that are weak spots. This is all without making a single move and it looks pretty solid. Like I said it's just my opinion.

1B. Votto
2B. BP
SS. FA
3B. EE
C. Ross
LF. Dunn
CF. Bruce
RF. Deno
P. Homer
P. Harrang
P. Cueto?
P. EZ
P. ?
Bullpen
Coff
Bray
Maj?

bucksfan2
01-23-2007, 10:44 AM
5Dollar you make some good points. The reds are starting to develop a young nucleus of people who could help the club in the next few years. Lets assume that Homer lives up to his potential and Harang is resigned then you have a damn good 1-2 punch and hopefully between Cueto and Wood you can have another good pitcher to complement the top two. Bruce may be ready when Jr. retires. As for SS, the reds have a couple of SS in the minors that hopefully one of them will pan out to be an every day player. Looking at your projected lineup

1B. Votto
2B. BP
SS. FA
3B. EE
C. Ross
LF. Dunn
CF. Bruce
RF. Deno
P. Homer
P. Harrang
P. Cueto?
P. EZ
P. ?
Bullpen
Coff
Bray
Maj?

What makes this even better is where the money will be tied up. EE, Harang, Dunn, and maybe Phillips are probably going to be the only guys out there with big contracts. If the contracts are done right they could potentially have quite a bit of cash to go out and get a big bat or a closer or maybe even another pitcher. If you look at these projections the near future may look bleak but a few years down the road the reds should be competitive.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 11:12 AM
An organization like Minnesota or Oakland could afford to do something like this, but we are basically depending on ALL of our top prospects to work out. Great farm systems have DEPTH, and if one doesn't work out, they have loads of other options. Unfortunately, we don't have that.

We have some really nice top prospects, but I just don't see the depth in our minor league system. We're relying on Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and a few other's to work out by 2009, but what if they don't? What happens if one of them gets hurt, or regresses for another reason?

In a sense, we're exactly like Minnesota or Oakland. If we have to get it done with a below-average payroll, we have to get an above-average stream of talent out of the farm system. It's not going to happen instantly, but it has to happen. Until it does -- if it does -- we're going to have that sensation of walking a tightrope without a net.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-23-2007, 11:19 AM
In a sense, we're exactly like Minnesota or Oakland. If we have to get it done with a below-average payroll, we have to get an above-average stream of talent out of the farm system. It's not going to happen instantly, but it has to happen. Until it does -- if it does -- we're going to have that sensation of walking a tightrope without a net.
And in all honesty, the only way we will compete until all of this happens is to bring in inexpensive fillers. We all will need to give WK some slack in order for him to get this done. Being a new front office, they are not going to blow it up right off the bat. If they did this they would lose alot of fans that they may never get back.

cincrazy
01-23-2007, 11:31 AM
I agree completely IslandRed. We are like Minny and Oakland in that we need to win through the draft, scouting, and development. I Just feel at this moment, we don't have the depth to accomplish that. I certainly think that can change, but it's something that happens over a period of years, not months, so I'm not looking for us to be on their level in the next few years.

5Dollar, I agree with you in that if that lineup you proposed was on the field, and they ALL reached their potential, it would be a good lineup. But that goes back to my original point. The chances of that happening are slim. Also, Adam Dunn is going to command a big time salary in the not too distant future, and I hate to be a pessimist here, but I can't see him as a part of our outfield when the young guys are ready to come up.

There's no doubt that if we got all of the breaks, things would work out ok. And even IF Cueto, Wood, Bailey, Bruce, Votto and a few others all worked out, they would still need time to adjust to the majors. They wouldn't be a smashing success right away.

This team may contend like it did last year, where enough pieces fall into place and they make a run at it. But as far as year in and year out, this club being not just on the fringe of contention, but a legitimate contender along the lines of Oakland or Minnesota, more young bodies need to be pumped into that farm system. It's just a matter of time... unfortunately, most GM's normally aren't given the time it actually takes to turn things around. Hopefully WK will be the exception to that.

FutureRedsGM
01-23-2007, 12:42 PM
I don't want to steal too much thunder from the minor league board, but with the intention of building for the immediate future, should WK use this years abundant draft choices on the best available COLLEGE player since they are normally ready sooner than high schoolers?

dougdirt
01-23-2007, 12:53 PM
FutureRedsgm, I personally am all for drafting the best player available, regardless of whether they are in HS or college. Baseball prospects flop so often, that in my mind you must take the guy that you think has the best chance to succeed in the end, not the guy who may be closest.

bucksfan2
01-23-2007, 01:00 PM
Doug you can draft the best player available but dont you also have to consider whether you are willing to sign him. I dont want the reds to go out and draft another Sowers and not be able to sign him. I am sure that the reds pass up on some good players every year because of signability issues as well as their agent (Broas).

dougdirt
01-23-2007, 01:08 PM
The Reds knew Sowers didnt want to sign....that is why they drafted him. If there are signability concerns, then work around them. Talk to the player and his agent, find out what they are looking for. If its not worth it, then move to the next player on your list. If you do your homework right, you should not miss in the first round often.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 02:59 PM
Doug you can draft the best player available but dont you also have to consider whether you are willing to sign him. I dont want the reds to go out and draft another Sowers and not be able to sign him. I am sure that the reds pass up on some good players every year because of signability issues as well as their agent (Broas).

I don't think there's a lot of that going around anymore, just the usual one or two Boras clients. Also, the new CBA that will govern the '07 draft gives more leverage to the clubs. In particular, the compensation feature for unsigned picks will help; Boras can no longer work the fear factor of wasting a high pick if you don't want to play his game and meet his price. It will be similar to the NFL in that "slotting" is not specifically written into the rules but the rules will just happen to make it come out that way 99% of the time.

Oddly enough, the new rules make it unlikely any top-of-the-board talent will slip to the Reds at #15 this year. That's OK, though. We have enough high picks to get a restocking done with a good draft.

durl
01-23-2007, 03:53 PM
I like what Krivsky has done so far. It's going to take some time to bring up the young talent but I can be patient with them. The Reds have good potential and I believe WK can make them a better team.

And can I just chime in and say how WONDERFUL it is to see civil, reasonable discussion on this forum? The reds.com site is full of naysayers who have nothing productive to say.