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Mainspark
01-23-2007, 04:33 PM
Athletics trade RHP Saarloos to Cincinnati

CINCINNATI (AP) — The Oakland Athletics traded pitcher Kirk Saarloos to the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday for minor league reliever David Shafer.
Each team also received a player to be named.
The 27-year-old Saarloos went 7-7 with two saves and a 4.75 ERA last season for the AL West champions. After being Oakland’s No. 5 starter in 2005, he made 16 starts and 19 relief appearances last year.
Saarloos had a chance to rejoin the rotation full-time this year under new A’s manager Bob Geren. Last week, Saarloos and the Athletics avoided salary arbitration when they agreed on a one-year contract worth $1.2 million.
Shafer, a 24-year-old righty, had 26 saves and a 2.36 ERA for Double-A Chattanooga last year.

And, as referred to below, the Reds signed Mark Bellhorn to a minor league contract...

The team also announced today that veteran infielder Mark Bellhorn has agreed to terms on a minor league contract that includes an invitation to its major league spring training camp.

The 32-year-old played in 115 games, batting .190 with eight homers and 27 RBI, for the Padres last season. Bellhorn has made more than 200 career appearances at second base and third base and has also played first base and shortstop during his career with the A’s, Cubs, Rockies, Red Sox, Yankees and Padres.

Kc61
01-23-2007, 04:35 PM
Saarloos is an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Jaycint
01-23-2007, 04:38 PM
I like it. He can be our #3 or #4 and bump some of our garbage off the end of the rotation. Unfortunately Milton won't be the garbage that gets bumped.

Razor Shines
01-23-2007, 04:43 PM
If he's really an extreme ground ball pitcher than I really like it.

kbrake
01-23-2007, 04:43 PM
Krivsky dealing with Billy Beane really scares me.

membengal
01-23-2007, 04:43 PM
Quick reaction...that's a move I don't hate.

Matt700wlw
01-23-2007, 04:45 PM
The same A's that gave the Reds Aaron Harang.

Why not? Can't hurt.

RANDY IN INDY
01-23-2007, 04:45 PM
Saarloos has a variety of pitches, including a 4-seam fastball, a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. However, his best pitch by far is his mid-to-high 80's sinker. For this reason, Saarloos is known predominately as a sinkerball specialist, and as such gets few strikeouts (batters tend to hit groundballs when faced with a sinker). In fact, his 2.99 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2005 ranked 3rd to last in Major League Baseball, and was the lowest mark in Oakland Athletics history for a starting pitcher.

Hope he throws a bunch of groundballs.

Reds Fanatic
01-23-2007, 04:48 PM
Not a bad move being that he is a groundball pitcher in the Reds park. I wonder if they are planning on him being a starter or reliever. Last year for the A's he started in 16 games and relieved in 19 games.

kbrake
01-23-2007, 04:49 PM
The same A's that gave the Reds Aaron Harang.

Why not? Can't hurt.

Very good point.

Gallen5862
01-23-2007, 04:51 PM
Could the ptbnl from the A's be the Rule V pick Burton that was selected from the A's? Plus I like Bellhorn added to the team for depth. I like Saarloos being added to the team.

fisch11
01-23-2007, 04:54 PM
A groundball pitcher with a good DP combo in the middle infield?.....I like the idea.

edabbs44
01-23-2007, 04:55 PM
Can't complain...I saw that he signed yesterday and thought it was a pretty good bargain.

Pretty good move is my first thought, though his peripherals are not good. But he is a plausible option for a #5. This could solidify a pretty bad 3-5 in the rotation and a potential no shot at contending this season. But I think he is a good option to have in the rotation...option being they key word there.

Where does that leave EZ?

TOBTTReds
01-23-2007, 04:58 PM
So Krivsky has a plan? This one trade makes me feel better about getting A-Gonz. I would be in a panic if we still had Rich, Royce, or Castro out at SS.

Red Leader
01-23-2007, 04:59 PM
Saarloos was first time arb eligible this season and can be a free agent after the 2010 season, so he'll be around for awhile if we want him to be.

Gallen5862
01-23-2007, 05:00 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/content/printer_friendly/cin/y2007/m01/d23/c1784694.jsp
Reds acquire Saarloos, sign Bellhorn
01/23/2007 3:36 PM ET
MLB.com

The Reds acquired RHP Kirk Saarloos (pronounced SAHR-lohs) and a player to be named in exchange for RHP David Shafer and a player to be named from the Oakland Athletics today.
Saarloos, 27, last season for the A's went 7-7, 4.75 with 2 saves in 16 starts and 19 relief appearances. In his 5-year Major League career he is 27-25, 4.79 with 3 complete games, 2 shutouts and 2 saves in 123 appearances, including 69 starts, for the Astros and the A's. Shafer, 24, last season at Class AA Chattanooga posted a 2.36era with 26 saves in 44 relief appearances. In November he was added to the Reds' 40-man roster.

Versatile veteran IF Mark Bellhorn has agreed to terms on a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training camp. Bellhorn, 32, spent last season with the National League West Division champion Padres. He has more than 200 career appearances at both 2B and 3B and also has played 1B (41g) and SS (31g). He was a member of the 2004 World Series champion Red Sox, and also has played for the Athletics, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees and Padres.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

TRF
01-23-2007, 05:01 PM
He gives up a lot of hits. If he has a good defense behind him, that might not be bad. He doesn't K a lot of guys. 4.34 K/9 as a major leaguer.

His major league numbers say he is really no better than EZ... just older. Still not a bad acquisition. Might be a better one for the A's though.

Johnny Footstool
01-23-2007, 05:02 PM
On the plus side, Saarloos is an extreme groundball pitcher (2:1 GB/FB ratio) and has two sets of consecutive vowels in his name.

On the negative side, Saarloos' K/9 hovers around 4, he walks as many as he strikes out, and his HR rate is fairly high.

On the plus side (for the Reds), David Shafer is 24 and still in AA.

On the negative side (for the Reds), David Shafer's career K/9 is over 9 and his K/BB is well over 3 in the minors.

LincolnparkRed
01-23-2007, 05:03 PM
Where does that leave EZ?

Louisville or traded.

I liked the idea of Shafer, young and semi sucessfull at Chatnooga

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 05:04 PM
Great trade. Hat's off to Krivsky.

Red Leader
01-23-2007, 05:05 PM
Why is it that anytime Wayne makes a move you have a feeling that another move is going to follow it almost immediately?

That's just odd to me. "Oh, he acquired X, that must mean that we'll trade Y." That's been my take on almost every move he's ever made. Weird.

redsmetz
01-23-2007, 05:05 PM
I wonder what the corresponding 40-man roster move will be.

[Edit: Never mind - I see Shaffer was added to the 40 man roster in November, so no additional move is required.]

klw
01-23-2007, 05:08 PM
I wonder what the corresponding 40-man roster move will be.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/content/printer_friendly/cin/y2007/m01/d23/c1784694.jsp
Shafer was apparently on the 40 man so no move is needed.

Puffy
01-23-2007, 05:08 PM
A soft tosser who gives up a ton of hits and walks almost as many as he K's. Color me very unimpressed.

TRF
01-23-2007, 05:10 PM
A soft tosser who gives up a ton of hits and walks almost as many as he K's. Color me very unimpressed.

I keep looking at his major league numbers. Unless EZ needs limb reattatchment surgery, I don't see him as an upgrade to either EZ or even Lohse.

Milton sure...

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 05:12 PM
On the plus side, Saarloos is an extreme groundball pitcher (2:1 GB/FB ratio) and has two sets of consecutive vowels in his name.

On the negative side, Saarloos' K/9 hovers around 4, he walks as many as he strikes out, and his HR rate is fairly high.

On the plus side (for the Reds), David Shafer is 24 and still in AA.

On the negative side (for the Reds), David Shafer's career K/9 is over 9 and his K/BB is well over 3 in the minors.

Pretty much sums it up. I liked Shafer. But minor-league relievers without high-end stuff, even the ones who are getting good results, usually don't make you regret trading them too badly down the road. He'll probably help the A's, if not this year then soon. But we needed a viable rotation candidate more than we needed any relief pitcher that's not a lights-out closer, and if Saarloos gets any kind of AL-to-NL bounce that seems to be commonplace lately, he'll stick. Good deal for both clubs IMO.

deltachi8
01-23-2007, 05:14 PM
I'm indifferent. I don't think it really improves the team nor does it make it any worse really.

M2
01-23-2007, 05:15 PM
Saarloos is a weird bird. His strikeout abilities have totally evaporated at the major league level. He's got a 8.17 K/9 in 218.2 minor league innings and a 4.34 K/9 in 440 major league innings. That major league number, almost miraculously, has gotten worse in recent years (3.70, 2.99 and 3.86).

If it stays that low Saarloos can't hope to be anything but back of the rotation fodder even in the most optimistic of scenarios. The next time he allows an .871 OPS against, Saarloos can expect disaster. He's got to get back to the .737 area where he was in 2005. Yet, because of his sinker, he doesn't need a high K rate to succeed. Saaloos could probably be a pretty good pitcher with a 5.25ish K/9. Hopefullly that will happen and he can be a reliable league average guy for a few years.

Interesting to see the A's pluck Shafer. He'll bear watching in the future.

Caveat Emperor
01-23-2007, 05:19 PM
I liked Shafer, but his continued tenure in Chattanooga in the face of overwhelming bullpen issues at the big league level seems now, in hindsight, like a clear indicator that the Reds wanted to move him.

Same situation as Zach Ward, I imagine -- a player destined as trade bait left to dominate a level in the hopes of improving his value.

Maybe I'm misreading things, though.

TRF
01-23-2007, 05:21 PM
Interesting to see the A's pluck Shafer. He'll bear watching in the future.

I'd say he has a shot at this year's 'pen, and if he doesn't make it, it's off to AAA.

I'm also thinking that despite a stellar year at AAA, Brad Salmon is on the outside looking in. again.

Puffy
01-23-2007, 05:22 PM
I think Saarloos is going to get lit up like a christmas tree for the Reds. But for 1.2 million I guess its a decent gamble. But trust me, this did nothing to improve the 2007, 2008, 2009 Cincinnati Reds.

flyer85
01-23-2007, 05:24 PM
Giving up Shafer doesn't bother but the only thing to like about Saarloos is his extreme GB tendencies. WIth that he still is a bit HR happy. Maybe with that sinker and slurve the transition to the NL will be to his liking. Not a lot of upside but it is a low risk/low value kind of a trade, which is an Ok deal, especially since the Reds have a dearth of starting pitching candidates heading into the season.

Johnny Footstool
01-23-2007, 05:25 PM
I liked Shafer, but his continued tenure in Chattanooga in the face of overwhelming bullpen issues at the big league level seems now, in hindsight, like a clear indicator that the Reds wanted to move him.

Same situation as Zach Ward, I imagine -- a player destined as trade bait left to dominate a level in the hopes of improving his value.

Maybe I'm misreading things, though.

Actually, I think you're seeing things quite clearly. Krivsky's scouts didn't like Shafer for some reason, so the team let him dominate at a low level, built his trade value, and then shipped him out.

Cyclone792
01-23-2007, 05:28 PM
A soft tosser who gives up a ton of hits and walks almost as many as he K's. Color me very unimpressed.

Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent. That's far worse than any season Milton's pitched, including 2004 and 2005. Oh, and most of Saarloos' home games thus far have been in Oakland with a HR index of 0.95, and we know how GABP is on the long ball. He does keep the ball out of the air at a nice rate, but the balls that do go in the air tend to go a long way. That's not uncommon for a pitcher who doesn't miss bats, and Saarloos definitely can't miss many bats.

If Saarloos can be as effective in 2007 as he was in 2005 - the only season he posted a sub 10 percent HR/FB% at 8.6 percent - he can help out a bit. If that doesn't happen, then he's just going to get shelled.

reds44
01-23-2007, 05:29 PM
Great trade. Hat's off to Krivsky.
WOW


Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.

flyer85
01-23-2007, 05:31 PM
Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.I'd say he acquired a probable fifth starter for very little. That still leaves him two starters short unless people are expecting big turnarounds from Milton and Lohse.

flyer85
01-23-2007, 05:32 PM
Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent. which means he was probably a bit unlucky last year with that rate.

dsmith421
01-23-2007, 05:33 PM
Great move Wayne, we found the last starter we needed.


We now have 2 #2 starters, 2 #5 starters, and a festering pile of suck.

I'm not holding my breath for a world title just yet.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 05:38 PM
Don't forget the fact that that 13.7 percent of Saarloos' career fly balls have left the yard. Last season alone that mark was 17.2 percent. That's far worse than any season Milton's pitched, including 2004 and 2005. Oh, and most of Saarloos' home games thus far have been in Oakland with a HR index of 0.95, and we know how GABP is on the long ball. He does keep the ball out of the air at a nice rate, but the balls that do go in the air tend to go a long way. That's not uncommon for a pitcher who doesn't miss bats, and Saarloos definitely can't miss many bats.

That's probably just a side effect of being a fairly extreme groundball pitcher -- if the ball's hit in the air in the first place, there's a decent chance it was a mistake pitch, and those get crushed.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 05:41 PM
Saarloos is a weird bird. His strikeout abilities have totally evaporated at the major league level. He's got a 8.17 K/9 in 218.2 minor league innings and a 4.34 K/9 in 440 major league innings. That major league number, almost miraculously, has gotten worse in recent years (3.70, 2.99 and 3.86). ... If it stays that low Saarloos can't hope to be anything but back of the rotation fodder even in the most optimistic of scenarios.

I checked his game log on MLB.com and saw he whiffed 11 in a five-inning outing against Cleveland in September. WTH happened?

M2
01-23-2007, 05:41 PM
Actually, I think you're seeing things quite clearly. Krivsky's scouts didn't like Shafer for some reason, so the team let him dominate at a low level, built his trade value, and then shipped him out.

Which is usually the smart thing to do even when your scouts do like a player. There's no shame in letting players put up compelling numbers. Somebody's bound to like a kid who had a big season.

Kc61
01-23-2007, 05:42 PM
Giving up Shafer doesn't bother but the only thing to like about Saarloos is his extreme GB tendencies. WIth that he still is a bit HR happy. Maybe with that sinker and slurve the transition to the NL will be to his liking. Not a lot of upside but it is a low risk/low value kind of a trade, which is an Ok deal, especially since the Reds have a dearth of starting pitching candidates heading into the season.

Shafer appears to need to make a transition to pitching longer stints. He did well as a late inning guy at AA, pitching one inning at a time. Later in the season they tried him in middle relief (where he is likely to pitch eventually) and he didn't do quite as well in longer outings.

Based on my reading about him, I would guess that he will have a big league career in middle relief. But he needs to build up his innings to be valuable.

While the various prospect rankings may say differently, the reliever from that group (Shafer, Medlock, etc.) who may have the most upside is Coutlangus, the lefty. I'm intrigued by him because he converted to pitching late but has had steady success ever since. I'm glad the Reds have held onto him so far.

Cyclone792
01-23-2007, 05:43 PM
which means he was probably a bit unlucky last year with that rate.

Possibly, but I want to know how the effectiveness of his sinker has shifted each season.

If his sinker loses effectiveness, then he'll just go down the Danny Graves road. When Graves' sinker was working in his prime, his HR/FB% was around 10 percent. When Graves' sinker went down the toilet, his HR/FB% jumped up beyond 15 percent, and that's when everything blew up.

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 05:45 PM
Saarloos can help in the BP if nothing else.

Red Leader
01-23-2007, 05:46 PM
Which is usually the smart thing to do even when your scouts do like a player. There's no shame in letting players put up compelling numbers. Somebody's bound to like a kid who had a big season.

True. That's a total 180 from the previous regimes. The past groups were very reluctant to let a player stay at a level and dominate it to build up their trade value. It seemed as though as soon as a player showed even an inkling of succeeding in one league, he was pushed to another to see if he could handle that. Not a very good idea if you're trying to establish some value in those players along the way.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 05:51 PM
True. That's a total 180 from the previous regimes. The past groups were very reluctant to let a player stay at a level and dominate it to build up their trade value. It seemed as though as soon as a player showed even an inkling of succeeding in one league, he was pushed to another to see if he could handle that. Not a very good idea if you're trying to establish some value in those players along the way.

Or if you're trying to turn them into good players. Now, I'm generally OK with "challenge thy hitters," but the Peter Principle is a terrible way to develop pitchers.

Heath
01-23-2007, 05:51 PM
Great trade. Hat's off to Krivsky.

:eek:

I'm wondering if this guy needed a change in scenery. Also, if he's anything decent, toss him in the 4/5 slot, give'em the ball every 5th day and tell him to have at it. It happened in a way to Bronson Arroyo and to Aaron Harang. You never know what a little confidence can do.

Red Heeler
01-23-2007, 05:53 PM
Darn, I wish Belhorn would have signed at this time last year. His Dad was a clinician at my vet school.

Saarloos for Schaffer is an uninspiring move to me. Nothing really wrong with Saarloos, but I don't see any reason for him to be a lot better than any of the Reds other candidates for the 5th spot. I would rather that Schaffer had been bumped up to Louisville last year and given a shot in the majors this season. The 2007 version of the Reds is unlikely to be any better than last years team. Better to take the opportunity to sift through the number of young relievers in the Reds system than to spend multi-millions on the vets they will be employing.

Gallen5862
01-23-2007, 05:53 PM
Does anyone think its possible that Jared Burton the rule v pick from The A's could be the ptbnl? This way if he doesn't stay on the 25 man roster the Reds keep him on 40 man roster but option him to AAA. If Burton stays on 25 man roster all year then Reds choose someone else from the A's?

paulrichjr
01-23-2007, 05:53 PM
Is he better than Belisle? Ramirez? Shack? Loshe? even Milton? I want trades that make a difference not ones that just make it eenie, meenie, miney, moe in Spring Training.

WayneK just added a lot of fluff without adding quality in my opinion. (I know....I know... this guy is seen as bullpen help - another place that WayneK adds fluff)

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 06:00 PM
Maybe my sights are too low; but I think a guy like Saarloos could help, which is probably more than you can say for Cormier or Weathers (or Milton) this season. He was picked up for nothing.

Obviously, he's not a difference maker, but he may not hurt things, so that's something.

Red Leader
01-23-2007, 06:02 PM
Does anyone think its possible that Jared Burton the rule v pick from The A's could be the ptbnl? This way if he doesn't stay on the 25 man roster the Reds keep him on 40 man roster but option him to AAA. If Burton stays on 25 man roster all year then Reds choose someone else from the A's?

That is one possibility. I'm curious to find out who the PTBNL's are on both sides. For that matter, could Josh Hamilton be the PTBNL on our side. I kind of doubt it, but you never know.

Mainspark
01-23-2007, 06:04 PM
Roto World's take:

Reds acquired RHP Kirk Saarloos and a player to be named from the Athletics for RHP David Shafer and a player to be named.

Saarloos went 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 52/53 K/BB ratio in 121 1/3 innings while splitting time between the rotation and the pen for the A's last season. He has a much better chance of continuing to survive in the majors as a National Leaguer, and he could be the favorite to begin the season as Cincinnati's fifth starter. Since he's only going to make $1.2 million this year, it's not a bad pickup for the Reds.

Reds signed infielder Mark Bellhorn to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Bellhorn would enjoy Great American Ballpark more than he did Petco, but he'll have an uphill battle to make the Reds after hitting just .190/.285/.344 in 253 at-bats for the Padres last season. He'll battle Jeff Keppinger for a roster spot.

reds44
01-23-2007, 06:08 PM
Roto World's take:

Reds acquired RHP Kirk Saarloos and a player to be named from the Athletics for RHP David Shafer and a player to be named.

Saarloos went 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 52/53 K/BB ratio in 121 1/3 innings while splitting time between the rotation and the pen for the A's last season. He has a much better chance of continuing to survive in the majors as a National Leaguer, and he could be the favorite to begin the season as Cincinnati's fifth starter. Since he's only going to make $1.2 million this year, it's not a bad pickup for the Reds.

Reds signed infielder Mark Bellhorn to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Bellhorn would enjoy Great American Ballpark more than he did Petco, but he'll have an uphill battle to make the Reds after hitting just .190/.285/.344 in 253 at-bats for the Padres last season. He'll battle Jeff Keppinger for a roster spot.
Rotoworld didn't rip on eof our moves. I am shocked. Don't forget what a change of league will do for him either.

Bellhorn is an interesting signing. He has a great eye, but plays bad defense. Very anti-Wayne. I don't think he can hit enough to be worthy of a spot move.

Johnny Footstool
01-23-2007, 06:13 PM
I checked his game log on MLB.com and saw he whiffed 11 in a five-inning outing against Cleveland in September. WTH happened?

Here's the game wrap-up:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260919111

Saarloos struck out 11 in 5 innings. His quote is pretty funny. Reminds me of DanO.


"I've got it in me," the typical groundball pitcher said of striking out batters. "But it's not economical."

Saarloos threw 113 pitches.

Yachtzee
01-23-2007, 06:15 PM
Saarloos sounds like we've signed a scary Star Wars creature or some sort of Harryhausen monster.

"RELEASE THE SAARLOOS!"

harangatang
01-23-2007, 06:16 PM
Besides the fact he allowed a homerun to Juan Castro, I like the move.

registerthis
01-23-2007, 06:19 PM
I checked his game log on MLB.com and saw he whiffed 11 in a five-inning outing against Cleveland in September. WTH happened?

Dunno. Choo and Blake couldn't hit the slider?

Kc61
01-23-2007, 06:21 PM
Is he better than Belisle? Ramirez? Shack? Loshe? even Milton? I want trades that make a difference not ones that just make it eenie, meenie, miney, moe in Spring Training.

WayneK just added a lot of fluff without adding quality in my opinion. (I know this guy is seen as bullpen help - another place that WayneK adds fluff)

IMO he is better at this point than Belisle and Ramirez, each of whom has had spotty numbers and injury problems. Shack is a lefty reliever, a whole different pitcher, not comparable. Saarloos is on a par with Lohse, who has better stuff but seems less consistent. Saarloos has been better than Milton in recent years, not as good as the earlier Milton.

Before this trade the Reds had no fifth starter, only hopes and prayers. This guy is somewhat better, so for not very much there is an upgrade.

Highlifeman21
01-23-2007, 06:32 PM
Where does that leave EZ?

Hopefully the PTBNL going to Oakland in this deal.

Elizardo Ramirez, start looking for real estate in the Bay Area.

reds44
01-23-2007, 06:35 PM
Hopefully the PTBNL going to Oakland in this deal.

Elizardo Ramirez, start looking for real estate in the Bay Area.
That would make this a bad trade really fast. You don't trade 23 (now 24?) year old pitchers who pitched well for 3 months last year.

TRF
01-23-2007, 06:36 PM
Hopefully the PTBNL going to Oakland in this deal.

Elizardo Ramirez, start looking for real estate in the Bay Area.

ugh. EZ is twice the pitcher Saarloos is.

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 06:40 PM
Anytime you can pick up a guy who's likely to outperform 2/5 of your rotation, and do so for nothing, you've made a solid move. No guarantees with Saarloos, but it's definitely better than not trying at all.

reds44
01-23-2007, 06:46 PM
Anytime you can pick up a guy who's likely to outperform 2/5 of your rotation, and do so for nothing, you've made a solid move. No guarantees with Saarloos, but it's definitely better than not trying at all.
Agreed

Caveat Emperor
01-23-2007, 06:48 PM
That would make this a bad trade really fast. You don't trade 23 (now 24?) year old pitchers who pitched well for 3 months last year.

You do if they're under 6' tall and lacking a dominant fastball.

I'd like to see the Reds get something out of EZ while there are still people out there who think he can be an effective starter.

Matt700wlw
01-23-2007, 06:48 PM
Anytime you can pick up a guy who's likely to outperform 2/5 of your rotation, and do so for nothing, you've made a solid move. No guarantees with Saarloos, but it's definitely better than not trying at all.

Wow...optimism!!

From you!!

:p:

lollipopcurve
01-23-2007, 07:23 PM
I've always been intrigued by Saarloos -- great record in college, but didn't have the pro measurables. Kinda like Shane Komine, who not coincidently is in the Oakland system. Good to have some starting pitching depth, and if he proves effective at the back of the rotation, nice that the Reds control him for a few years yet. The team continues to morph, little by little, to pitching and defense.

I have never been a big Bellhorn fan, but he could provide something I've been hoping the Reds could acquire -- a LH-hitting backup who can play 2B and 3B, to give Phillips and EdE breathers now and then against tough righties. I like the fit.

Eric_Davis
01-23-2007, 07:31 PM
1 Bronson Arroyo (R)
2 Aaron Harang (R)
3 Eric Milton (L)
4 Kyle Lohse (R)
5 Paul Wilson (R)
5 Kirk Saarloos (R)
5 Homer Bailey (R)
5 Elizardo Ramirez (R)


This is better than it was.

Eric_Davis
01-23-2007, 07:34 PM
Saarloos is a weird bird. His strikeout abilities have totally evaporated at the major league level. He's got a 8.17 K/9 in 218.2 minor league innings and a 4.34 K/9 in 440 major league innings. That major league number, almost miraculously, has gotten worse in recent years (3.70, 2.99 and 3.86).

If it stays that low Saarloos can't hope to be anything but back of the rotation fodder even in the most optimistic of scenarios. The next time he allows an .871 OPS against, Saarloos can expect disaster. He's got to get back to the .737 area where he was in 2005. Yet, because of his sinker, he doesn't need a high K rate to succeed. Saaloos could probably be a pretty good pitcher with a 5.25ish K/9. Hopefullly that will happen and he can be a reliable league average guy for a few years.

Interesting to see the A's pluck Shafer. He'll bear watching in the future.

I'm looking for him to hit the .750 OPS area and if that happens he'll be able to keep the team in ballgames and give us opportunities to win.

Eric_Davis
01-23-2007, 07:37 PM
I'd say he acquired a probable fifth starter for very little. That still leaves him two starters short unless people are expecting big turnarounds from Milton and Lohse.


This is how I see it, too.

Topcat
01-23-2007, 07:54 PM
Positive acquisition with this move :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
01-23-2007, 07:55 PM
I like the Bellhorn signing. As for the trade, meh. I liked Shafer and think he'll be a solid reliever.

Ltlabner
01-23-2007, 07:58 PM
1 Bronson Arroyo (R)
2 Aaron Harang (R)
3 Eric Milton (L)
4 Kyle Lohse (R)
5 Paul Wilson (R)
5 Kirk Saarloos (R)
5 Homer Bailey (R)
5 Elizardo Ramirez (R)


This is better than it was.

Don't forget that Victor Santos is also in the #5 mix somewhere.

MartyFan
01-23-2007, 08:12 PM
I'll wait and see before I jump up and down...I like the fact that the guy is a GB pitcher and I am encouraged that he is a sinker ball pitcher too...Pole has had some success with pitchers of his make up.

vaticanplum
01-23-2007, 08:19 PM
OMG WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT MARK BELLHORN.

Mark Bellhorn is HOTT like a locomotive in heat.

(I also approve the Saarloos trade. I've actually thought before this is someone the reds should get.)

KronoRed
01-23-2007, 08:21 PM
Mark Bellhorn is HOTT like a locomotive in heat.

You see, you just don't get player reviews like this from Marty :D

WVRedsFan
01-23-2007, 08:30 PM
I can't get excited by this for one reason. In 440 major league innings he has given up 501 hits. In fact, every season he has been in the majors, he's given up more hits than innings pitched. Look at the record
SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2002 Hou 17 17 1 1 85.1 100 59 57 12 27 54 6 7 0 0 -- 6.01
2003 Hou 36 4 0 0 49.1 55 31 27 4 17 43 2 1 0 4 -- 4.93
2004 Oak 6 5 0 0 24.1 27 13 12 4 12 10 2 1 0 0 -- 4.44
2005 Oak 29 27 2 1 159.2 170 75 74 11 54 53 10 9 0 0 -- 4.17
2006 Oak 35 16 0 0 121.1 149 70 64 19 53 52 7 7 2 0 1 4.75
Total -- 123 69 3 2 440.0 501 248 234 50 163 212 27 25 2 4 1 4.79


A lot of those grounders were going through to the outfield and a good number of those fly balls were leaving the yard--in a much bigger ballpark than ours. He did not improve the club and if this is our 5th starter and Wayne's best effort, we're in big trouble.

redsmetz
01-23-2007, 08:30 PM
OMG WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT MARK BELLHORN.

Mark Bellhorn is HOTT like a locomotive in heat.

(I also approve the Saarloos trade. I've actually thought before this is someone the reds should get.)

So is this the cutie?

http://i.cnn.net/si/si_online/covers/images/2004/1101_large.jpg

vaticanplum
01-23-2007, 08:36 PM
So is this the cutie?

Yes, yes, I know. I have a forgiving heart, what can I say.

Spitball
01-23-2007, 08:44 PM
I like the Bellhorn signing. If he gets the at bats, he could hit 15-20 homers.

I hope Saarloos works out, but I've never been too impressed with him. If you have a groundball pitcher, he should be able to strike people out also because they also give up lots of line drives, hits, batters on by error, and unearned runs. Plus, what's the point of a groundball pitcher if he still gives up a fairly high amount of homers?

buckeyenut
01-23-2007, 08:53 PM
When it comes to bellhorn, he reminds me a lot of aurillia when he came over. If used right, I think he can provide about what aurillia gave us in 2005 (2006 is too much to ask).

As far as Saarloos, I think he is a good fit for us. We have an IF with Phillips, Gonzalez and Encarnacion that is going to have a tremendous amount of range. That should be a big help for a ground ball pitcher like Saarloos. Not sure what the A's IF looked like last year.

WVRedsFan
01-23-2007, 08:54 PM
I like the Bellhorn signing. If he gets the at bats, he could hit 15-20 homers.

I hope Saarloos works out, but I've never been too impressed with him. If you have a groundball pitcher, he should be able to strike people out also because they also give up lots of line drives, hits, batters on by error, and unearned runs. Plus, what's the point of a groundball pitcher if he still gives up a fairly high amount of homers?

Hmmm. A 32-year-old career .231 hitter who strikes out a lot (177 in 2004), plays the infield and has shown a steady decline at the plate? Wayne's going to sign enough of these $1 million players until our payroll will be $75 million of junk and castoffs. I can just see Narron's excuses for playing him over Encarnacion. The words scrappy and knows how to play the game come to mind.

And we agree on Saarloos.

Heath
01-23-2007, 08:57 PM
The only thing about Mark Bellhorn is he'll be a Redleg only because he wears his socks high.

Other than then that, if they think he can compete with Jeff Kleppinger, that should be an indication of how he's fallen.

reds44
01-23-2007, 09:03 PM
Hmmm. A 32-year-old career .231 hitter who strikes out a lot (177 in 2004), plays the infield and has shown a steady decline at the plate? Wayne's going to sign enough of these $1 million players until our payroll will be $75 million of junk and castoffs. I can just see Narron's excuses for playing him over Encarnacion. The words scrappy and knows how to play the game come to mind.

And we agree on Saarloos.
Bellhorn was signed to a minor-league contract.

vaticanplum
01-23-2007, 09:04 PM
The only thing about Mark Bellhorn is he'll be a Redleg only because he wears his socks high.

He did not often wear them high when he was a Yankee, unfortunately.

To address another question: a high home run rate in GABP is brutal, to be sure, but I think the greatest hope with a groundball pitcher is a handful of double plays with the Special New Defense. That's squidgy and tentative logic, I know, but I'm happy to see that defense getting some work.

mbgrayson
01-23-2007, 09:04 PM
Lets talk about the effect of switching from AL to NL.... I think it will really help Saarloos, and make this is a good deal for us.

Just look at Arroyo and Loshe last year: they both markedly improved their stats.

I think there are sveral reasons for this: new league where batters don't know them, no DH in lineup (pitchers hitting instead...)...

Average ERA in AL in 2006 was 4.56. Average in NL was 4.49. Yet several pitchers switching Al to NL had bigger improvements.

vaticanplum
01-23-2007, 09:06 PM
Lets talk about the effect of switching from AL to NL.... I think it will really help Saarloos, and make this is a good deal for us.

Just look at Arroyo and Loshe last year: they both markedly improved their stats.

I think there are sveral reasons for this: new league where batters don't know them, no DH in lineup (pitchers hitting instead...)...

Average ERA in AL in 2006 was 4.56. Average in NL was 4.49. Yet several pitchers switching Al to NL had bigger improvements.

I'd like to see a divisional breakdown on this, actually. I think you could be right, but I also think there's a marked difference between coming to the NL from the AL West vs. the AL East or Central. Especially given the disparity between the Oakland and Cincinnati ballparks.

corkedbat
01-23-2007, 09:07 PM
An experienced 5th starter not expected to be any more than he is, extreme ground ball pitcher obtained for a minor leaguer and only costing $1.2M? Not bad, I won't even criticize the deal if it doesn't work out.

Not something that really floats the boat, but a nice periphreal move. Now at least one semi-major move this offseason would be nice.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 09:07 PM
Lets talk about the effect of switching from AL to NL.... I think it will really help Saarloos, and make this is a good deal for us.

Just look at Arroyo and Loshe last year: they both markedly improved their stats.

I think there are sveral reasons for this: new league where batters don't know them, no DH in lineup (pitchers hitting instead...)...

Average ERA in AL in 2006 was 4.56. Average in NL was 4.49. Yet several pitchers switching Al to NL had bigger improvements.

The simplest explanation is that right now, the AL has better teams and better players. Just about any AL player coming over to the NL has a chance to see a positive bump in his numbers.

Spitball
01-23-2007, 09:20 PM
Hmmm. A 32-year-old career .231 hitter who strikes out a lot (177 in 2004), plays the infield and has shown a steady decline at the plate?

Bellhorn is sort of a Dunn-lite when he gets the at bats. He strikes out a ton but will work for a walk. But, he is also inconsistent. Some years he just doesn't seem to get going and others his OBP is pretty decent. Maybe this will be an "on" year for him.


Wayne's going to sign enough of these $1 million players until our payroll will be $75 million of junk and castoffs.

Where does the million dollar number come from? Wasn't he signed to a minor league deal? Even if it was a million, that doesn't seem too crippling of a number.


I can just see Narron's excuses for playing him over Encarnacion. The words scrappy and knows how to play the game come to mind.

I would think he would have to be having an extremely "on" year to take any playing time from Encarnacion. Like you said, he strikes out a ton plus his defense isn't superior. He is a role player who can play several positions, has some pop, will take a walk, and hopefully have a decent on base percentage.

redsmetz
01-23-2007, 09:49 PM
LOL - I just went over to the A's board to see what fan's reactions were there and someone posted this tongue in cheek comment


Instead of getting Schafer, we should have been after Homer Bailey.....yes, a pipe dream :)

Nice to see others recognizing our value. Some were exciting about Shaffer until someone pointed out that he's 25 and still in AA and seems to be topping out at 92 MPH.

WVRedsFan
01-23-2007, 09:59 PM
Bellhorn is sort of a Dunn-lite when he gets the at bats. He strikes out a ton but will work for a walk. But, he is also inconsistent. Some years he just doesn't seem to get going and others his OBP is pretty decent. Maybe this will be an "on" year for him.

AT 32 years old, I tend to doubt that, but who knows? After last season batting on the interstate, I'm not sold.


Where does the million dollar number come from? Wasn't he signed to a minor league deal? Even if it was a million, that doesn't seem too crippling of a number.
I read an earlier clip somewhere (MLB maybe) that said he would be paid the $800,000 he got last year. I hope I'm wrong on that because with Conine, Crosby, Moehler, and a few others, you're talking $6-8 million on players who have not produced in a long time. Quantity does not equal quality, but maybe I expect too much.


I would think he would have to be having an extremely "on" year to take any playing time from Encarnacion. Like you said, he strikes out a ton plus his defense isn't superior. He is a role player who can play several positions, has some pop, will take a walk, and hopefully have a decent on base percentage.
You never know with Narron. Last year, Edwin was knocking the cover off the ball, but didn't play.

jojo
01-23-2007, 10:00 PM
Anytime you can pick up a guy who's likely to outperform 2/5 of your rotation, and do so for nothing, you've made a solid move. No guarantees with Saarloos, but it's definitely better than not trying at all.

Yaaaaaaaaa.....he's a groundball pitcher!!!!!! just isn't good enough or frankly that compelling in and of itself.

Here's the thing....the Reds already had a better version of Saarloos in their clutches and they let him go to Japan....

Johnson: $3M/1 yr
04: xFIP: 4.51; GB%: 49; K/G: 5.7; BB: 2.7 ;
05: xFIP: 4.55; GB%: 52; K/G: 4.0; BB: 2.1;
06: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 59; K/G: 4.2; BB: 2.4;

Saarloos: $1.2M/1yr
04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;

So instead of better for $3M, they choose something of a facsimile for $1.2M plus something potentially useful. Basically this is payroll move on both ends... Beane saves money and gets something more useful to him then he's giving up and Krivsky saves money by getting the generic version of something he already had...

Basically, meh.

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 10:11 PM
Yaaaaaaaaa.....he's a groundball pitcher!!!!!! just isn't good enough or frankly that compelling in and of itself.

Here's the thing....the Reds already had a better version of Saarloos in their clutches and they let him go to Japan....

Johnson: $3M/1 yr
04: xFIP: 4.51; GB%: 49; K/G: 5.7; BB: 2.7 ;
05: xFIP: 4.55; GB%: 52; K/G: 4.0; BB: 2.1;
06: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 59; K/G: 4.2; BB: 2.4;

Saarloos: $1.2M/1yr
04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;

So instead of better for $3M, they choose something of a facsimile for $1.2M plus something potentially useful. Basically this is payroll move on both ends... Beane saves money and gets something more useful to him then he's giving up and Krivsky saves money by getting the generic version of something he already had...

Basically, meh.

I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.

Ltlabner
01-23-2007, 10:14 PM
I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.

Which is critical in my opinion. Jerry can not run his horses into the ground again.

WVRedsFan
01-23-2007, 10:16 PM
Which is critical in my opinion. Jerry can not run his horses into the ground again.

Who's going to tell him "no"?

Jerry and Wayne have this "thing".

I just hope Harang and Arroyo don't come up injured.

jojo
01-23-2007, 10:45 PM
I know what the numbers say, and, no, it's not his GB rate alone that makes him interesting. He's the height of unsexy, but he's dirt cheap, and could be a lot better than Milton, and even somewhat better than Lohse. Plus, he could come out of the bullpen. He's versatile and probably won't raise a stink being used as a swingman. A Jared Fernandez if you will. It beats someone who won't pitch in the majors this year in Shafer. Like I said, he obviously has warts, but as I said, he could help; the Reds MLB team is going to have a tough time finding people to eat innings, and Saarloos could probably do so if deployed properly. It's not going to vault the Reds to contention, but it may help with preventing Harang and Arroyo from throwing more innings than necessary.


Once again, if the Reds were so starved for innings eaters, why boot Johnson? Johnson is a better option to eat innings than Saarloos.

Aronchis
01-23-2007, 10:50 PM
Once again, if the Reds were so starved for innings eaters, why boot Johnson? Johnson is a better option to eat innings than Saarloos.

Because Johnson can't eat innings anymore. Saarloos wasn't a bad pickup for overhyped fluff like Shafer. Now if it had been Medlock, I wouldn't have been happy.

jojo
01-23-2007, 11:00 PM
Because Johnson can't eat innings anymore.

Why not? The only thing I see thats dramatically different between '05 and '06 for him was an unlucky BABIP in '06.

Falls City Beer
01-23-2007, 11:07 PM
Why not? The only thing I see thats dramatically different between '05 and '06 for him was an unlucky BABIP in '06.

Can Johnson come out of the pen?

Plus Saarloos is six years younger than Johnson. Not that money should matter all that much, but I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 than Johnson 3.

mth123
01-23-2007, 11:25 PM
I don't see an upgrade for the rotation or any room in the pen. Seems like WK traded a guy who might be useful that he could stash at AAA for some one clearly inferior to what he already had.




Name ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP
Saarloos4.75 3.86 3.93 1.41 1.66 0.315
Santos 5.70 6.32 3.28 1.25 1.66 0.362
Ramirez 5.37 5.97 2.51 1.21 1.46 0.323
Belisle 3.60 5.85 4.28 1.13 1.55 0.306



I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.

IslandRed
01-23-2007, 11:32 PM
04: xFIP: 5.49; GB%: 53; K/G: 3.5; BB: 4.7;
05: xFIP: 4.79; GB%: 57; K/G: 3.0; BB: 3.0;
06: xFIP: 5.13; GB%: 54; K/G: 3.7; BB: 3.7;


I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Eric_Davis
01-23-2007, 11:49 PM
I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Nice...

DoogMinAmo
01-23-2007, 11:55 PM
I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Makes you woder if it is mental or physical? Does he concentrate more when runners are on, which means he has focus issues. Or does that mean he is a candidate for switching to the stretch full time? Could it be that simple?

Gallen5862
01-24-2007, 12:01 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/print263178.html
Reds Add Saarloos To Staff
By Jim Callis
January 23, 2007

The Deal
The Reds can use some help at the back of their rotation and in middle relief, and they found some Tuesday. Cincinnati acquired Kirk Saarloos from the Athletics in exchange for Double-A reliever David Shafer. Both teams also will receive a player to be named later.
The Big Leaguers
A 27-year-old righthander, Saarloos has split his big league career between starting and relieving. He served both roles for Oakland last year, going 7-7, 4.75 with two saves in 35 games (16 starts). Opponents batted .308 with 15 homers against him, and he had more walks (53) than strikeouts (52) in 121 innings of work. He's a finesse guy without a put-away pitch, and he has to throw strikes and keep the ball down to succeed. He avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $1.2 million contract earlier this month.
The Prospects
Shafer, a 24-year-old righty, went in the 31st round in 2001 and signed as a draft-and-follow out of Central Arizona JC the following spring. He has an average fastball (88-92 mph) and slider, and he commands both pitches well. He spent 2006 as the closer at Double-A Chattanooga, going 1-2, 2.36 with 26 saves in 44 appearances. He had a 52-16 K-BB ratio and held hitters to a .204 average with two homers. He projects as a sixth/seventh-inning reliever in the majors.
Quick Take
Saarloos doesn't have a high ceiling, but he can eat some innings and didn't cost the Reds a top prospect.


« Trade Central 2007

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 12:06 AM
Can Johnson come out of the pen?

Why wouldn't he be able to?


Plus Saarloos is six years younger than Johnson. Not that money should matter all that much, but I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 than Johnson 3.

Six years younger and quite a bit worse.

Personally, I don't like either of them. But at least the cost is minimal.

Krusty
01-24-2007, 12:21 AM
Not a bad deal considering what pitchers are getting in free agency.

Kc61
01-24-2007, 12:53 AM
I don't see an upgrade for the rotation or any room in the pen. Seems like WK traded a guy who might be useful that he could stash at AAA for some one clearly inferior to what he already had.




Name ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP BABIP
Saarloos4.75 3.86 3.93 1.41 1.66 0.315
Santos 5.70 6.32 3.28 1.25 1.66 0.362
Ramirez 5.37 5.97 2.51 1.21 1.46 0.323
Belisle 3.60 5.85 4.28 1.13 1.55 0.306



I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.


I don't see how these numbers show Saarloos to be inferior. Belisle had a better ERA -- but pitched only 40 innings all last year and has back problems. Ramirez was injured last year and, while a decent prospect, hardly showed last year that he is ready to pitch consistently in the majors. Santos' 5.70 ERA is rather high.

flynn78
01-24-2007, 02:29 AM
I like it. Sounds like the upgrade on a budget that I was looking for.:thumbup:

Bill
01-24-2007, 03:37 AM
Shafer put up good numbers every year. I liked him, but this reminds me of the A's grabbing Mike Neu from the Reds.

I don't expect anything from Saarloos though. He is a poor man's Jake Westbrook.

Ron Madden
01-24-2007, 06:33 AM
Well at least this move dosen't hurt the Club.

Let's hope it helps the Club.

mth123
01-24-2007, 06:52 AM
I don't see how these numbers show Saarloos to be inferior. Belisle had a better ERA -- but pitched only 40 innings all last year and has back problems. Ramirez was injured last year and, while a decent prospect, hardly showed last year that he is ready to pitch consistently in the majors. Santos' 5.70 ERA is rather high.

Ultra low K Rate, high HR Rate (while pitching in a good park to suppress HR), high Walk Rate and tons of baserunners. Guys who strike out fewer hitters while walking more and giving up more home runs are generally worse pitchers no matter what the ERA may say.

All three miss a lot more bats than Saarloos and allow fewer HR and Santos and Ramirez both have much better control.

None of these guys are studs. I just don't see how a team can give up anything remotely useful for a guy like Saarloos. I like that Shafer had options and could be stashed. That alone gives him more value than Saarloos given the Reds roster glut. The Reds are going to lose some other pitchers when the roster is pared to 25. As I see it, those pitchers are at least as likely to be effective as Saarloos is and it wouldn't have cost Shafer to keep one of those instead. Another move (say Lohse or Milton traded for something) would also make this move look better.

As I posted earlier in one of these threads, if injuries to the current guys are worse than advertised then this move make more sense.

I don't like this move, but its still WK's best move of the offseason.

Ltlabner
01-24-2007, 07:03 AM
I'm all for trading the minor league relief guys for an upgrade, but Saarloos will just cause the Reds to go with an inferior pitcher while probably exposing one of the other candidates to waivers and losing Shafer in the process.

Shafer the 24 year old pitcher in AA with what is described as an "average fastball" who projects at best to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he were to ever make it to the majors? Not sure I understand the big deal about losing Shafer.

Some folks cried when we let Zach Day go in trade. IIRC he wasn't picked up by any team when he had to clear waivers. Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).

mth123
01-24-2007, 07:15 AM
Shafer the 24 year old pitcher in AA with what is described as an "average fastball" who projects at best to be a 7th/8th inning guy if he were to ever make it to the majors? Not sure I understand the big deal about losing Shafer.

Some folks cried when we let Zach Day go in trade. IIRC he wasn't picked up by any team when he had to clear waivers. Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).

Somebody has to pitch the 7th or 8th inning. Seems like WK spent over $7 Million of this year's payroll on three old guys who have the same profile and traded two of his better offensive players for 2 others.

Why not keep the cheaper younger option and use the money to acquire a real upgrade. Instead, the cheaper younger option is traded for junk, lots of other resources are expended to fill the 7th or 8th inning role that no one seems to value (except the guy expending all of those resources), and we hear that the rotation can't be upgraded because its too costly and the team doesn't have the resources (I wonder where they went).

Ltlabner
01-24-2007, 07:18 AM
Somebody has to pitch the 7th or 8th inning. Why not keep the cheaper younger option and use the money to acquire a real upgrade.

So you think Shafer is going to jump from AA and be effective in the bigs this year?

Because if not, you need somebody to pitch the 7th or 8th inning.

If he's in Cattanooga next year, he'll have a hard time making the sprint out to the mound at GABP.

mth123
01-24-2007, 07:30 AM
So you think Shafer is going to jump from AA and be effective in the bigs this year?

Because if not, you need somebody to pitch the 7th or 8th inning.

If he's in Cattanooga next year, he'll have a hard time making the sprint out to the mound at GABP.

Actually I do not think he was ready to start the season in the majors, but I think he could have been up by Memorial Day. He is at least as likely to be successful as Weathers, Cormier or Majewski. With the myriad of relief options at AA and AAA in 2006, I wouldn't have spent any money on the pen this offseason unless it was for a surefire stopper or a top set-up guy. I'd have kept the best out of spring training and went through them all until I found a good one or two guys.

Now they add another guy that they have to keep and can not be sent down. If he was a clear upgrade that would be great. This trade doesn't really improve anything and limits flexibility.

jojo
01-24-2007, 07:43 AM
Makes you woder if it is mental or physical?


or fools gold....


2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

But if that is a skill, why isn't it reflected in his carreer LOB% (which is squarely at 71% or exactly league average)? The kind of beast you're describing is just the kind that the A's look for....if he's the real Mr Outlier, you'd have to wonder why they kicked him to the curve.

He gets alot of groundballs which is good because he lets alot of guys get on. Basically, he's a soft-tossing no upside guy who has no out pitch and relies upon control to be effective yet he walks as many as he strikes out.... He might win ten games out of the backend of the rotation for a perinial 90 win team that plays their home games in a pitcher's heaven in a division full of rivals who also have great pitcher's parks (excluding texas of course), but I'm not nearly as optimistic about him in GABP, Wrigley, in front of Houstan's short porch or in the Cards new digs...

This is probably just making a big deal about a relatively minor transaction but, meh....

Hubba
01-24-2007, 08:18 AM
Could someone explain in detail what WHIP means? I forgot if I ever knew that is.
P.S. Good post Island Red.

mbgrayson
01-24-2007, 09:13 AM
Could someone explain in detail what WHIP means? I forgot if I ever knew that is.
P.S. Good post Island Red.

Walks plus Hits allowed per Innings Pitched....

Krusty
01-24-2007, 09:28 AM
The team needs sinkerball pitchers and they got one. If he wins 10+ games as the number 5 starter, I would be happy with that.

TheBigLebowski
01-24-2007, 09:46 AM
Best move of the off-season, IMNSHO. Could be this year's David Ross or Brandon Phillips.

gonelong
01-24-2007, 09:52 AM
Makes you woder if it is mental or physical? Does he concentrate more when runners are on, which means he has focus issues. Or does that mean he is a candidate for switching to the stretch full time? Could it be that simple?

Making a leap here ... but I'd assume lots of ground balls equals lots of double play opportunities and as someone stated before he seems to give up less extra base hits than is the norm. That also would suppress scoring. Lots of guys can't score from 2nd on a hard hit ground ball through the infield.



Saarloos has pitched once at Great American, when he was beginning his career with Houston in the ballpark's inaugural season of 2003. The game left quite an impression.


Houston hit three consecutive homers in the first inning of a 9-8 win over the Reds. There were five homers in the game. Saarloos pitched in relief during Cincinnati's five-run ninth inning.


"What I know is it seems homers never get hit into the first or second row, they seem to go to the 23rd or 24th row," he said, laughing. "It seems they built it downhill for some reason."



While this is not a sexy move, they get a guy who has a chance to help them at little to no cost.

Worth the price paid for the risk/reward here IMO, but mostly because the price paid was so small.

GL

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 10:31 AM
Best move of the off-season, IMNSHO. Could be this year's David Ross or Brandon Phillips.


This year's Zach Day or Jason Johnson, more likely.

Kc61
01-24-2007, 10:55 AM
Actually I do not think he was ready to start the season in the majors, but I think he could have been up by Memorial Day. He is at least as likely to be successful as Weathers, Cormier or Majewski.

Now they add another guy that they have to keep and can not be sent down. If he was a clear upgrade that would be great. This trade doesn't really improve anything and limits flexibility.

I would agree with WK that Shafer is not likely to do as well as Weathers, Cormier or Majewski. If you look at Weathers' state line with the Reds thelast two years, I would be amazed if Shafer could do that well. Majewski had a bad year and Cormier a bad second half, but Shafer has a long, long way to go before achieving what these guys have at the major league level.

Depending on the players to be named, I make yesterday's trade every day and twice on Sunday (doubleheader).

TRF
01-24-2007, 10:58 AM
The team needs sinkerball pitchers and they got one. If he wins 10+ games as the number 5 starter, I would be happy with that.

If he wins 10 games it's because the Reds will have averaged 6 runs a game.

Lets see. He K's no one.
He gives up a ton of hits.
He walks a lot of guys.
His HR rate is higher than any other candidate for the #5 pitcher the Reds currently have signed.
And as a reliever, his projections are positively Maj like.

Meh indeed.

I'm stating this right now. Saarloos is the guy that forces Brad Salmon to repeat AAA. And that's a damn shame. Though not a starter, Salmons numbers compared favorably to Homer Bailey's last year. Tremendous K/9 rate. Doesn't give up a lot of HR's. He should be making his debut in the bullpen this year.

Benihana
01-24-2007, 11:04 AM
Yep I like the deal too. Give up a 24-yr old pitcher in AA for a guy that should be in our rotation to start the year (could even be our third best starter to start the season, YIPES! :scared:)

As it stands now, our rotation by May 1 should be:

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Saarloos
Bailey

Pretty significant improvement from the past. Hopefully Lohse pans out.

TRF
01-24-2007, 11:05 AM
I would agree with WK that Shafer is not likely to do as well as Weathers, Cormier or Majewski. If you look at Weathers' state line with the Reds thelast two years, I would be amazed if Shafer could do that well. Majewski had a bad year and Cormier a bad second half, but Shafer has a long, long way to go before achieving what these guys have at the major league level.

Depending on the players to be named, I make yesterday's trade every day and twice on Sunday (doubleheader).

Why do people keep insisting Cormier is a good pitcher? he had a nice half a season in philly last year, but he actually sucked as a Red. His K/9 rate has been declining since 2002 with a small uptick in 2005. And he turns 40 3 weeks into the season.

Heath
01-24-2007, 11:11 AM
Yep I like the deal too. Give up a 24-yr old pitcher in AA for a guy that should be in our rotation to start the year (could even be our third best starter to start the season, YIPES! :scared:)

As it stands now, our rotation by May 1 should be:

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Saarloos
Bailey

Pretty significant improvement from the past. Hopefully Lohse pans out.

That's a pretty expensive LOOGY we got in Milton.

:D

I also wouldn't be shocked to see Salmon make the club if he has a knockout spring.

Kc61
01-24-2007, 11:16 AM
Why do people keep insisting Cormier is a good pitcher? he had a nice half a season in philly last year, but he actually sucked as a Red. His K/9 rate has been declining since 2002 with a small uptick in 2005. And he turns 40 3 weeks into the season.

Over his career Cormier has been a good pitcher. He has a lifetime 4.02 ERA in over 1,200 innings with a WHIP of 1.28. He had a bad second half last year. He had a good first half.

He is older now and who knows how well he will do next year, certainly I don't. I just don't think the Reds would be better off with David Shafer in the bullpen and I'm glad they made the trade yesterday, that's all.

Crosley68
01-24-2007, 11:24 AM
Can anyone else forsee a circumstance in which Milton gets DF'Ad? I am not anti-Milton as much as some people, but I could see Loshe, Sarloos, and Bailey making Eric not have a spot even in the pen.

registerthis
01-24-2007, 11:24 AM
We all wanted a groundball pitcher, right?

Well, we got one. Hope he pans out.

registerthis
01-24-2007, 11:24 AM
Can anyone else forsee a circumstance in which Milton gets DF'Ad?

With his salary?

no.

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 11:25 AM
We all wanted a groundball pitcher, right?

Well, we got one. Hope he pans out.

As jojo pointed out, we had one. His name was Jason Johnson. That didn't work out too well.


Making a leap here ... but I'd assume lots of ground balls equals lots of double play opportunities and as someone stated before he seems to give up less extra base hits than is the norm. That also would suppress scoring. Lots of guys can't score from 2nd on a hard hit ground ball through the infield.

You can't turn a double play unless the pitcher has already allowed a guy to reach first base. Allowing baserunners is bad. And with Saarloos' high HR rate, it could be really bad.


While this is not a sexy move, they get a guy who has a chance to help them at little to no cost.

Worth the price paid for the risk/reward here IMO, but mostly because the price paid was so small.

GL

That's the main thing this deal has going for it. It's like playing penny slots at the casino. Low risk, low reward.

redsmetz
01-24-2007, 11:26 AM
Yep I like the deal too. Give up a 24-yr old pitcher in AA for a guy that should be in our rotation to start the year (could even be our third best starter to start the season, YIPES! :scared:)

As it stands now, our rotation by May 1 should be:

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Saarloos
Bailey

Pretty significant improvement from the past. Hopefully Lohse pans out.

I'm doubtful that Bailey will be up that early. I think he needs to taste and do well with AAA level baseball. And I don't think we're getting rid of Milton that easily. He might be moveable, but he'll need to show he's healthy following his surgery. I would be surprised to see Bailey much before the All Star break, but that's just my opinion.

Redsland
01-24-2007, 11:27 AM
Can anyone else forsee a circumstance in which Milton gets DF'Ad?
Not really. But I could foresee a bout of ineffectiveness being followed by a trip to the "DL." (Note the quote marks.) ;)

registerthis
01-24-2007, 11:34 AM
As jojo pointed out, we had one. His name was Jason Johnson. That didn't work out too well.

With only 8.2 IP for us, I'd hardly say that amounts to a valid comparison.

blumj
01-24-2007, 11:51 AM
With only 8.2 IP for us, I'd hardly say that amounts to a valid comparison.
Well, it worked out pretty badly for several of the teams who had Johnson before the Reds, too. You know how they say a pitcher's washed up when he makes his pitch and gets hit anyway? I think that might be where Johnson's at these days. I don't know if Saarloos is going to be much better, but the fact that he is quite a bit younger probably makes it more likely.

Will M
01-24-2007, 11:55 AM
I believe Krisky feels that a pitcher who has had some success at the major league level has value. Especially if they are cheap.
There is a HUGE leap from AA to the majors.

Shafer may develop into a solid reliever or be the next Brian Reith.
Saarloss may improve on what he has shown in his first 3 years ( or not ).
A key ( IMO ) is that Saarloos is young and cheap.

Cheap guys like Majik or Saarloos or EZ who have shown some success in the bigs are more valuable than a middling prospect.

TRF
01-24-2007, 12:03 PM
Over his career Cormier has been a good pitcher. He has a lifetime 4.02 ERA in over 1,200 innings with a WHIP of 1.28. He had a bad second half last year. He had a good first half.

He is older now and who knows how well he will do next year, certainly I don't. I just don't think the Reds would be better off with David Shafer in the bullpen and I'm glad they made the trade yesterday, that's all.

I can live with trading any of Salmon, Shafer, Medlock or Coutlangus if it means a better pitcher comes along.

Whof of the 4-5 candidates the Reds already have for the #5 rotation spot is Saarloos better than? Who is he better than in the pen.

As for Cormier, I see no reason to believe the 34 ip in philadelphia are more real than the 48 in 2005. I think he had a nice hot streak to start the year in 2006. His K rates were abysmal all of 2006, half what they were in 2005 which wasn't a great year for him at all. I'd say he was BABIP lucky in the first half of 2006.

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 12:10 PM
With only 8.2 IP for us, I'd hardly say that amounts to a valid comparison.

The point is, getting a groundball pitcher is one thing. Getting a good one is another.

You need more than just a good GB/FB ratio to be successful. Unfortunately, Saarloos doesn't have much more than that.

Danny Serafini
01-24-2007, 12:16 PM
Saarloos is the guy that forces Brad Salmon to repeat AAA.

Salmon was already ticketed for AAA before Saarloos came over. He's got Weathers, Stanton, Cormier, Majewski, Bray, Coffey and Belisle ahead of him in the pecking order. Barring a trade or injury there isn't room in the pen right now.

TRF
01-24-2007, 01:18 PM
Salmon was already ticketed for AAA before Saarloos came over. He's got Weathers, Stanton, Cormier, Majewski, Bray, Coffey and Belisle ahead of him in the pecking order. Barring a trade or injury there isn't room in the pen right now.

Probably, but then that goes to the larger point: Did this trade make the Reds a better team? I don't think so. Does Cormier make the Reds better than Salmon would? IMO no, he does not. Is Majewski a better option than Salmon? IMO no, he is not. Is Saarloos a better option than EZ, Belisle, or even Santos? Again, IMO no.

So what then was the point? Another trade for the sake of making a trade. Krivsky's most astute move since April has been to offer Arb to Aurilia and Schoeneweiss knowing they'd refuse.

Most everything else has been a real head scratcher.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 01:23 PM
Shafer put up good numbers every year. I liked him, but this reminds me of the A's grabbing Mike Neu from the Reds.

I don't expect anything from Saarloos though. He is a poor man's Jake Westbrook.

To receive a player of Saarloos' age with the number of innings he's pitched in the Majors so far, the ONLY scenario for making the trade if you're giving away younger talent is that the upside of the younger player must be better than the Major Leaguer, and the upside must be progressively better the younger the player is as his chances of reaching the Majors diminishes the further away that he is from being there.

gonelong
01-24-2007, 01:24 PM
You can't turn a double play unless the pitcher has already allowed a guy to reach first base. Allowing baserunners is bad. And with Saarloos' high HR rate, it could be really bad.

No doubt, but I was trying to answer why this might be the case ...



Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all.
...


Getting two outs at a time can clean up a self-created mess in a hurry.

GL

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 01:39 PM
If we get the Kirk Saarloos of 2005, then he instantly becomes the 3rd best starter on this staff. If we get the Kirk Saarloos of 2006, then we'll lose more games than we win when he's out there pitching.

I love the potential.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 01:44 PM
Ultra low K Rate, high HR Rate (while pitching in a good park to suppress HR), high Walk Rate and tons of baserunners. Guys who strike out fewer hitters while walking more and giving up more home runs are generally worse pitchers no matter what the ERA may say.

All three miss a lot more bats than Saarloos and allow fewer HR and Santos and Ramirez both have much better control.

None of these guys are studs. I just don't see how a team can give up anything remotely useful for a guy like Saarloos. I like that Shafer had options and could be stashed. That alone gives him more value than Saarloos given the Reds roster glut. The Reds are going to lose some other pitchers when the roster is pared to 25. As I see it, those pitchers are at least as likely to be effective as Saarloos is and it wouldn't have cost Shafer to keep one of those instead. Another move (say Lohse or Milton traded for something) would also make this move look better.

As I posted earlier in one of these threads, if injuries to the current guys are worse than advertised then this move make more sense.

I don't like this move, but its still WK's best move of the offseason.

None of the pitchers on this staff, with the exception of Arroyo and Harang, have put up as good of numbers as Saarloos did in 2005. They don't have his potential, and giving up Shafer for that potential was a very fair deal, one which we needed to make.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 01:46 PM
Somebody has to pitch the 7th or 8th inning. Seems like WK spent over $7 Million of this year's payroll on three old guys who have the same profile and traded two of his better offensive players for 2 others.

Why not keep the cheaper younger option and use the money to acquire a real upgrade. Instead, the cheaper younger option is traded for junk, lots of other resources are expended to fill the 7th or 8th inning role that no one seems to value (except the guy expending all of those resources), and we hear that the rotation can't be upgraded because its too costly and the team doesn't have the resources (I wonder where they went).


Absolutely ridiculous. Saarloos in not junk. Don't use adjectives so loosely. His 2005 season was one I'd like to have for 3/4th's of the current REDS's staff.

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 01:49 PM
No doubt, but I was trying to answer why this might be the case ...



Getting two outs at a time can clean up a self-created mess in a hurry.

GL

That makes sense.

TRF
01-24-2007, 01:53 PM
Absolutely ridiculous. Saarloos in not junk. Don't use adjectives so loosely. His 2005 season was one I'd like to have for 3/4th's of the current REDS's staff.

I'd take EZ's 2006 over Saarloos 2005 in GAB any day of the week.

EZ K's more batters, walks fewer batters, has better overall control and is four years younger.

EZ is better than Saarloos.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 01:54 PM
Could someone explain in detail what WHIP means? I forgot if I ever knew that is.
P.S. Good post Island Red.

In the Mid-70's during a RED's broadcast on Saturday morning, Curt Gowdy commented that one of the secrets to Don Gullett's success is that he allows fewer runners to reach base than the average pitcher. Gullett's response to that was, "If they can't get on they can't score".

Later on, the WHIP stat came out, but managers always knew which pitchers allowed baserunners and which ones didn't.

Cyclone792
01-24-2007, 01:55 PM
Given Saarloos' ground ball tendencies, I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this ...

Saarloos career at home: 0.75 HR/9
Saarloos career at Network Associates: 0.85 HR/9
Saarloos career on the road: 1.30 HR/9

He'll get a boost from the AL/NL switch, but he's also moving out of a home park park that suppresses home runs and moving into GABP. Also, as has been mentioned previously, the NL Central road parks where Saarloos will log a decent chunk of road innings are also HR friendly.

If Kirk Saarloos walks as many guys as he strikes out in 2007, which he's done the past three seasons, and puts up a HR/9 in the 1.30 range in 2007, which he's done for his career on the road, then there won't be many people satisfied one bit with his performance come summer.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 02:03 PM
I'd take EZ's 2006 over Saarloos 2005 in GAB any day of the week.

EZ K's more batters, walks fewer batters, has better overall control and is four years younger.

EZ is better than Saarloos.

That makes no sense. Ramirez' 2006 was horrible. It was worse than Milton's and worse than Lohse'.

Kc61
01-24-2007, 02:10 PM
I like the trade, but I can understand the criticism of Saarloos. What I don't understand is the expectations for certain pitchers who are not highly rated prospects and have had, at most, limited success to date. Please show me the basis for the upbeat expectations for 2007 for guys like Ramirez, Belisle, Shafer and Salmon.

On top of everything, keep in mind that Ramirez, who I like as a young pitcher, and Belisle, about whom I am less positive, both had injury plagued 2006 seasons. Do we have info that they are both over their physical problems and are ready to throw 180 innings?

Krivsky can't count on the maybes presented by these guys and so he went out and got a decent experienced starter -- and got him cheaply. Hard for me to understand what better in-house options he had.

TRF
01-24-2007, 02:31 PM
That makes no sense. Ramirez' 2006 was horrible. It was worse than Milton's and worse than Lohse'.

the overall results were worse. But it ain't all W's and L's

in 2006, EZ had a K/9 of 5.97 in Cincinnati, and 8.55 in AAA. His HR/9 was 1.21, and .90 at AAA. He had a 2.51 BB/9, and a .90 BB/9 in AAA.

In 2005 in 159 IP Sarloos K'd 53 guys.
In 2006 in 104 IP EZ k'd 69 guys.

It really isn't even close. BTW, EZ had a better K rate than Milton too. Now Lohse did have a better year (half year really) than all three. but really, he isn't much of a K pitcher either, and his numbers will fall back to his career norms.

lollipopcurve
01-24-2007, 02:31 PM
On top of everything, keep in mind that Ramirez, who I like as a young pitcher, and Belisle, about whom I am less positive, both had injury plagued 2006 seasons. Do we have info that they are both over their physical problems and are ready to throw 180 innings?

Krivsky can't count on the maybes presented by these guys and so he went out and got a decent experienced starter -- and got him cheaply. Hard for me to understand what better in-house options he had.

Exactly. EZ and Belisle need to show they can stay healthy.

TRF
01-24-2007, 02:35 PM
On top of everything, keep in mind that Ramirez, who I like as a young pitcher, and Belisle, about whom I am less positive, both had injury plagued 2006 seasons. Do we have info that they are both over their physical problems and are ready to throw 180 innings?

Injury plagued is a phrase I would not use to describe EZ's 2006. "Came down with an injury due to the complete inept handling of his manager" is a little better.

Belisle has back issues. He will always have back issues. But his stuff is light years ahead of Saarloos'.

So Salmon is unproven, but half the board has Bailey as the #3 starter by June?

jojo
01-24-2007, 03:13 PM
Absolutely ridiculous. Saarloos in not junk. Don't use adjectives so loosely.

I posted this in another thread but it is on target here too:

Here' a comparison of guys on the Reds roster based upon Pecota projections for '07:

Belisle: GB%: 53% ; PERA: 4.60;
E. Ramirez: GB%: 46% ; PERA: 5.06;
Lohse: GB%: 45%; PERA: 5.05;
Saarloos: GB%: 53%; PERA: 5.15;
Livingston: GB%: 46%; PERA: 5.16;
Milton: GB%: 37%; PERA: 5.50;

Saarloos is roster fodder projected to give innings at below league average quality. He basically fits right in with the back end guys adding depth to the dregs fighting it out for the #5 slot/mop up guy role. I really don't mean to be beating him up like it probably appears that I am... but really Saarloos doesn't bring a ton to the team. It was a trade of spare parts by both GM's where each get to spend less on the new part than they would've had to have spent on the alternative. It's a move with no real downside for either team but it's also one with not a lot of upside. The Reds didn't acquire a #3. They got competition for the #5 spot/bullpen.

Kc61
01-24-2007, 03:16 PM
Injury plagued is a phrase I would not use to describe EZ's 2006. "Came down with an injury due to the complete inept handling of his manager" is a little better.

Belisle has back issues. He will always have back issues. But his stuff is light years ahead of Saarloos'.

So Salmon is unproven, but half the board has Bailey as the #3 starter by June?

I like EZ. But he had an ERA over 5.3 last year. He was very inconsistent, although he did have some good outings. Given his injury -- however you categorize it -- the Reds just can't count on him this year. Frankly, I'd like to see him, if healthy, as a long reliever for awhile, before he is awarded a starting slot.

Belisle may have stuff, and he certainly throws harder than Saarloos, but his back is a major problem. The guy only pitched 40 innings last year. There is nothing in his performance post-back surgery to indicate that Belisle can be a major league starter.

Don't see how you can compare Salmon to Bailey. Based on everything I've read, Salmon is an ordinary prospect, who did have success last year but at age 26 (he is now 27) in AA and AAA. I hope he found something and has a great year, but again you can't count on him to be a contributor at the big league level.

gonelong
01-24-2007, 03:16 PM
I posted this in another thread but it is on target here too:

Here' a comparison of guys on the Reds roster based upon Pecota projections for '07:

Belisle: GB%: 53% ; PERA: 4.60;
E. Ramirez: GB%: 46% ; PERA: 5.06;
Lohse: GB%: 45%; PERA: 5.05;
Saarloos: GB%: 53%; PERA: 5.15;
Livingston: GB%: 46%; PERA: 5.16;
Milton: GB%: 37%; PERA: 5.50;

Saarloos is roster fodder projected to give innings at below league average quality. He basically fits right in with the back end guys adding depth to the dregs fighting it out for the #5 slot/mop up guy role. I really don't mean to be beating him up like it probably appears that I am... but really Saarloos doesn't bring a ton to the team. It was a trade of spare parts by both GM's where each get to spend less on the new part than they would've had to have spent on the alternative. It's a move with no real downside for either team but it's also one with not a lot of upside. The Reds didn't acquire a #3. They got competition for the #5 spot/bullpen.

Just wondering, what is the breakout and regression chances of those same pitchers per PECOTA.

GL

pedro
01-24-2007, 03:18 PM
I posted this in another thread but it is on target here too:

[B][U]..... The Reds didn't acquire a #3. They got competition for the #5 spot/bullpen.

I agree. It's just filler depth as they don't have any ML starters other than Bailey that are even close to contributing

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 03:22 PM
TRF, there's numbers that can go for and against Ramirez having a better or worse 2006 than Milton or Lohse. That vast array of numbers I use leave him having worse numbers, but Saarloos' 2005 was head and shoulders better than all three. Saarloos' 2005 numbers would make him a solid #3 starter on this team. Ramirez gets the age factor, but I'm only looking at numbers.

Pitcher's are strange ducks. It's difficult to predict what you'll get from any of these four in 2007, but I think that Saarloos' has a greater chance of putting up the best numbers of the four. Whether that translates to wins or losses in 2007 is out of his control as that has as much to do with run support and bullpen help.

There's so much need for improved talent on this team and Saarloos offers that for 2007 at a good price.

TRF
01-24-2007, 03:29 PM
I like EZ. But he had an ERA over 5.3 last year. He was very inconsistent, although he did have some good outings. Given his injury -- however you categorize it -- the Reds just can't count on him this year. Frankly, I'd like to see him, if healthy, as a long reliever for awhile, before he is awarded a starting slot.

Belisle may have stuff, and he certainly throws harder than Saarloos, but his back is a major problem. The guy only pitched 40 innings last year. There is nothing in his performance post-back surgery to indicate that Belisle can be a major league starter.

Don't see how you can compare Salmon to Bailey. Based on everything I've read, Salmon is an ordinary prospect, who did have success last year but at age 26 (he is now 27) in AA and AAA. I hope he found something and has a great year, but again you can't count on him to be a contributor at the big league level.

Salmon just took a while to develop. He turned a corner at age 25. He's a converted starter that took a little while to adjust to relief. I'd say he is about as unproven in the Majors as Bailey.

Since we haven't heard a word about EZ, I'd say only the Reds and EZ know what his status is.

gonelong does PECOTA have projections for Santos?

TRF
01-24-2007, 03:32 PM
TRF, there's numbers that can go for and against Ramirez having a better or worse 2006 than Milton or Lohse. That vast array of numbers I use leave him having worse numbers, but Saarloos' 2005 was head and shoulders better than all three. Saarloos' 2005 numbers would make him a solid #3 starter on this team. Ramirez gets the age factor, but I'm only looking at numbers.

Pitcher's are strange ducks. It's difficult to predict what you'll get from any of these four in 2007, but I think that Saarloos' has a greater chance of putting up the best numbers of the four. Whether that translates to wins or losses in 2007 is out of his control as that has as much to do with run support and bullpen help.

There's so much need for improved talent on this team and Saarloos offers that for 2007 at a good price.

What numbers? name one thing Sarrloos did in 2005 better than EZ did in 2006? Other than ERA and W's (the first is deceiving, the second is a team dependent stat) name one thing he did better.

Bill
01-24-2007, 03:32 PM
To receive a player of Saarloos' age with the number of innings he's pitched in the Majors so far, the ONLY scenario for making the trade if you're giving away younger talent is that the upside of the younger player must be better than the Major Leaguer, and the upside must be progressively better the younger the player is as his chances of reaching the Majors diminishes the further away that he is from being there.

ED, I am quite aware of trade dynamics. My point was that the A's liked Neu as well, a similar soft-tosser that got results as a minor leaguer. Neu put up fairly good numbers for the A's- for one year- and then fell off the face of the earth. The very same could happen with Shafer or he could have a longer go at it.

Regardless, Saarloos will not improve the Reds rotation but rather improve its depth at mediocrity. Is that worth the potential higher upside you speak of in the player traded. Yes, if Shafer is Mike Neu, but either way Saarloos is not the pitcher the Reds needed to add to the rotation to make any difference in the upcoming season.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 03:39 PM
Let's make some predictions, but let's keep it simple. I don't care about walks, strikeouts, HR's...

How many innings pitched, quality starts, OPS, and where will his ERA finish (I know, ERA is not that important)?

Is there a way to bookmark this thread to come back to it in October?

Here's mine:

181 innings pitched

15 quality starts (6+ innings with 3 or fewer earned runs)

752 OPS

3.92 ERA

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 03:42 PM
ED, I am quite aware of trade dynamics. My point was that the A's liked Neu as well, a similar soft-tosser that got results as a minor leaguer. Neu put up fairly good numbers for the A's- for one year- and then fell off the face of the earth. The very same could happen with Shafer or he could have a longer go at it.

Regardless, Saarloos will not improve the Reds rotation but rather improve its depth at mediocrity. Is that worth the potential higher upside you speak of in the player traded. Yes, if Shafer is Mike Neu, but either way Saarloos is not the pitcher the Reds needed to add to the rotation to make any difference in the upcoming season.

I think it's worth the attempt to make this trade because if we get the 2005 Saarloos in either 2007 or 2008, then he'll be a solid #3 starter, and that would make giving up the potential of a Shafer, who has a chance to be better than Saarloos.

TRF
01-24-2007, 03:43 PM
Let's make some predictions, but let's keep it simple. I don't care about walks, strikeouts, HR's...

How many innings pitched, quality starts, OPS, and where will his ERA finish (I know, ERA is not that important)?

Is there a way to bookmark this thread to come back to it in October?

Here's mine:

181 innings pitched

15 quality starts (6+ innings with 3 or fewer earned runs)

752 OPS

3.92 ERA

Nice projection... For Aaron Harang, though the IP's are a little low for Harang.

wait, did you mean Saarloos?


BWAH hahahahaha.

not even in his best year. not even if he got permission from the league to take steroids and HGH.

BTW, the K's, BB's and HR's you don't care about are what result in QS's, OPSA, and even IP to a degree.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 03:51 PM
What numbers? name one thing Sarrloos did in 2005 better than EZ did in 2006? Other than ERA and W's (the first is deceiving, the second is a team dependent stat) name one thing he did better.

Here's a pretty glaring one:

Ramirez' OPS in 2006 vs RH's was a horrid .817 and against LH's an astronomical .847 ......that was fun to watch.

Saarloos' OPS in 2005 vs RH's was a respectable .753 for someone who started 26 games, and against LH's was an impressive .716 ....that is something fun to watch!

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 03:52 PM
Nice projection... For Aaron Harang, though the IP's are a little low for Harang.

wait, did you mean Saarloos?


BWAH hahahahaha.

not even in his best year. not even if he got permission from the league to take steroids and HGH.

BTW, the K's, BB's and HR's you don't care about are what result in QS's, OPSA, and even IP to a degree.

Make your own predictions right now for IP, ERA, QS's, and OPSA, and we'll look at things at the end of the year and compare. It should be fun.

jojo
01-24-2007, 03:53 PM
That makes no sense. Ramirez' 2006 was horrible. It was worse than Milton's and worse than Lohse'.

Actually I have two quibbles with this statement.

First, Ramirez was horrible in August. He was very respectable in the 16 starts preceeding that. In fact, he was a large reason that the Reds were competitive up to August.

Ramirez thru July '06:
ERA: 4.25; FIP: 3.85; K/9: 6.1; BB/9: 1.9; GB%:43; FB%: 34; LD%: 23.3; HR/FB: 9.5; 10 QS in 16 starts

Second, Ramirez was not worse than Milton.

Ramirez '06:
ERA: 5.37; xFIP: 4.67; K/9:5.97; BB/9: 2.51; GB%:44; FB%:33; LD%:23; HR/FB:13.5;

Milton '06:
ERA:5.19; xFIP: 5.56; K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; GB%:31; FB%:50; LD%:19; HR/FB:11.2 ;

In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.

TRF
01-24-2007, 03:57 PM
Here's a pretty glaring one:

Ramirez' OPS in 2006 vs RH's was a horrid .817 and against LH's an astronomical .847 ......that was fun to watch.

Saarloos' OPS in 2005 vs RH's was a respectable .753 for someone who started 26 games, and against LH's was an impressive .716 ....that is something fun to watch!

In a park that suppresses HR's at age 27.

EZ pitches in a veritable wind tunnel. and had better K rates at age 23. long term, short term, if EZ's arm is ok by ST, it isn't even close. Sarrloos is on a decline, and couldn't K Adam Dunn. Now that is saying something.

TRF
01-24-2007, 04:00 PM
Make your own predictions right now for IP, ERA, QS's, and OPSA, and we'll look at things at the end of the year and compare. It should be fun.

Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:11 PM
Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.


Back up your opinions with predictions.

Jpup
01-24-2007, 04:12 PM
Impossible to make projections about a # 5 starter, especially with Narron at the helm.

I'll project this, If EZ is healthy there is no way Saarloos beats him out for a rotation spot.

oh yes. You think Jerry is going to cut Saarloos if it's even close? EZ can be sent down, I don't know about Saarloos. Does he have any options left?

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:12 PM
Actually I have two quibbles with this statement.

First, Ramirez was horrible in August. He was very respectable in the 16 starts preceeding that. In fact, he was a large reason that the Reds were competitive up to August.

Ramirez thru July '06:
ERA: 4.25; FIP: 3.85; K/9: 6.1; BB/9: 1.9; GB%:43; FB%: 34; LD%: 23.3; HR/FB: 9.5; 10 QS in 16 starts

Second, Ramirez was not worse than Milton.

Ramirez '06:
ERA: 5.37; xFIP: 4.67; K/9:5.97; BB/9: 2.51; GB%:44; FB%:33; LD%:23; HR/FB:13.5;

Milton '06:
ERA:5.19; xFIP: 5.56; K/9: 5.31; BB/9: 2.48; GB%:31; FB%:50; LD%:19; HR/FB:11.2 ;

In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.

The only significant number there is the ERA and Ramirez' was worse. But wer'e talking about a couple of pitchers with very bad numbers.

CTA513
01-24-2007, 04:15 PM
Sarrloos is on a decline, and couldn't K Adam Dunn. Now that is saying something.

Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:15 PM
Just wondering, what is the breakout and regression chances of those same pitchers per PECOTA.

GL

You bring up a great point. Pecota pretty much thinks the same for for Ramirez, Belisle, Lohse and Milton though Ramirez has the highest improve rate and Milton the lowest. On the other hand, Pecota hates Saarloos predicting he is almost all downside (collapse and attrition are both higher than his improve while his breakout is really, really low).

Take a soft-tossing guy with no out pitch who relies upon his control yet has walked more guys than he has struck out over the last three years and guess what kind of upside you'd think Saarloos has.... that's what Pecota thinks....he's not long for the league.

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:19 PM
The only significant number there is the ERA

:eek:

TRF
01-24-2007, 04:22 PM
Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

Saarloos couldn't K me. yes, he's that bad.


Back up your opinions with predictions.

Ok, but it's a silly exercise.

Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA

With his K rate that would put him around 130K's. Saarloos ever post a season with more than 55?

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:25 PM
You bring up a great point. Pecota pretty much thinks the same for for Ramirez, Belisle, Lohse and Milton though Ramirez has the highest improve rate and Milton the lowest. On the other hand, Pecota hates Saarloos predicting he is almost all downside (collapse and attrition are both higher than his improve while his breakout is really, really low).

Take a soft-tossing guy with no out pitch who relies upon his control yet has walked more guys than he has struck out over the last three years and guess what kind of upside you'd think Saarloos has.... that's what Pecota thinks....he's not long for the league.

Let's have some fun, jojo. Screw Pecota! Let's see what you project.

Make a prediction on IP and OPS and ERA for next year.

High IP means he beat out others in Spring Training and outperformed them.

Lower OPS means he kept runners off the bases and kept from advancing the ones who were on towards home.

Lower ERA means he kept from bunching all of his numbers into one inning and spread out the hits and that he made pitches when it counted.

Don't be afraid to stick your neck out. Have fun and make a prediction and we'll look back it at the end of the year and laugh.

:beerme:

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:25 PM
Let's make some predictions, but let's keep it simple. I don't care about walks, strikeouts, HR's...

How many innings pitched, quality starts, OPS, and where will his ERA finish (I know, ERA is not that important)?

Is there a way to bookmark this thread to come back to it in October?

Here's mine:

181 innings pitched

15 quality starts (6+ innings with 3 or fewer earned runs)

752 OPS

3.92 ERA


Chone, Marcel and Pecota all wonder what you've been drinking...

:beerme:

blumj
01-24-2007, 04:28 PM
Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

Oh, he has, twice, in only 4 ABs. No BBs, too. And he's gotten Bellhorn 4 times in 12 ABs, also no BBs. Something to build on? Or not.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:28 PM
Saarloos couldn't K me. yes, he's that bad.



Ok, but it's a silly exercise.

Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA

So, those are EZ's predictions. That's alright. So, you're predicting that Saarloos won't pitch well enough to earn a starter's spot and will thus pitch in the 75-95 inning area, and because he won't pitch well enough, that his ERA will be between 4.70-4.99, and that he won't have any QS's. Does that sound about right? It's just for fun. Let's hope they both do very well.

IslandRed
01-24-2007, 04:31 PM
Assuming EZ is healthy, and if he is, he's a much better option than Saarloos, and he wins the #5 slot outright I see him as posting the following:

26 Starts, 14 QS, 170 IP 4.30ish ERA


I think most of us could agree that if Krivsky knew Ramirez was healthy and expected him to improve to the numbers you posted, he probably wouldn't have dealt for Saarloos. So the question becomes, does he know there's a health issue that keeps us from counting on him, or some other reason he believes he won't take that step forward in effectiveness? Or is he just wrong?

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:32 PM
Chone, Marcel and Pecota all wonder what you've been drinking...

:beerme:


True, Jojo, I'm being very optimistic. I'll give you that. But, I'm also hoping that my optimism is based on his 2005 numbers and that the numbers from 2006 were his "Sophomore slump". Pecota's numbers uses computers only. I feel that his third season of being a starter will be at least as good as his first season as a starter.

As TRF noted, he does have to prove it in Spring Training to the managers, and I think he will.

TRF
01-24-2007, 04:34 PM
So, those are EZ's predictions. That's alright. So, you're predicting that Saarloos won't pitch well enough to earn a starter's spot and will thus pitch in the 75-95 inning area, and because he won't pitch well enough, that his ERA will be between 4.70-4.99, and that he won't have any QS's. Does that sound about right? It's just for fun. Let's hope they both do very well.

My hope is he's bounced to AAA in ST. He's got zero upside. There isn't anything he does on a mound that warrants consideration as a starter. He's going to get a neck strain watching balls leave the park, and he'll kill the pen in the process.

My real hope is EZ comes to camp completely healed. While in ST, Soto (brought back to work with pitchers again) helps EZ get a little movement on his FB. See, Ramirez can still develop. Saarloos doesn't have a whole lot more to develop. Age in this case is a factor.

Caveat Emperor
01-24-2007, 04:34 PM
In fact, even though Elizardo hit a wall in August, overall he was a more effective pitcher.

The $64,000 question is: "Exactly what type of wall did Elizardo hit?"

If it was a fatigue and workload wall, then that is something that can be overcome through additional experience and mileage on the arm. If it was a competitive gap wall (one time through the league showed them everything they needed to know), then there is far less of a chance that it can be overcome.

My hunch is that it is a little bit of A and B. EZ's big knock in the minors was that he didn't have any really great pitches and lacked the ability to throw a put-away pitch with any great regularity. His fastball is serviceable, but not the fireball with movement that you'd like to see out of a guy with his diminished stature. I think the more time he spent in the bigs, the more those flaws became apparent.

I'd like to see the kid succeed, but I've been pretty low on him since I watched him pitch in the minors after the trade, and I really haven't seen anything that makes me think he is anything better than borderline #4/#5. His numbers weren't particularly special or awe-inspiring last season, so I really don't see the justification for the love he gets around here.

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:37 PM
Let's have some fun, jojo. Screw Pecota! Let's see what you project.

Make a prediction on IP and OPS and ERA for next year.

High IP means he beat out others in Spring Training and outperformed them.

Lower OPS means he kept runners off the bases and kept from advancing the ones who were on towards home.

Lower ERA means he kept from bunching all of his numbers into one inning and spread out the hits and that he made pitches when it counted.

Don't be afraid to stick your neck out. Have fun and make a prediction and we'll look back it at the end of the year and laugh.

:beerme:

Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Ramirez

Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:38 PM
True, Jojo, I'm being very optimistic. I'll give you that. But, I'm also hoping that my optimism is based on his 2005 numbers and that the numbers from 2006 were his "Sophomore slump". Pecota's numbers uses computers only. I feel that his third season of being a starter will be at least as good as his first season as a starter.

As TRF noted, he does have to prove it in Spring Training to the managers, and I think he will.

But in a way that's like arguing that the Reds should've signed Franklin because if he posted numbers similar to his '03 season, Franklin would be the Reds #3 starter.....

TRF
01-24-2007, 04:41 PM
I think most of us could agree that if Krivsky knew Ramirez was healthy and expected him to improve to the numbers you posted, he probably wouldn't have dealt for Saarloos. So the question becomes, does he know there's a health issue that keeps us from counting on him, or some other reason he believes he won't take that step forward in effectiveness? Or is he just wrong?

Could be any of the three honestly. but if EZ isn't healthy, I'd rather see Victor Santos than Saarloos.

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 04:45 PM
Im sure it wouldnt be to hard for Saarloos to K Adam Dunn.

Maybe if Dunn were blindfolded and spotted Saarloos a strike...

TRF
01-24-2007, 04:46 PM
The $64,000 question is: "Exactly what type of wall did Elizardo hit?"

If it was a fatigue and workload wall, then that is something that can be overcome through additional experience and mileage on the arm. If it was a competitive gap wall (one time through the league showed them everything they needed to know), then there is far less of a chance that it can be overcome.

My hunch is that it is a little bit of A and B. EZ's big knock in the minors was that he didn't have any really great pitches and lacked the ability to throw a put-away pitch with any great regularity. His fastball is serviceable, but not the fireball with movement that you'd like to see out of a guy with his diminished stature. I think the more time he spent in the bigs, the more those flaws became apparent.

I'd like to see the kid succeed, but I've been pretty low on him since I watched him pitch in the minors after the trade, and I really haven't seen anything that makes me think he is anything better than borderline #4/#5. His numbers weren't particularly special or awe-inspiring last season, so I really don't see the justification for the love he gets around here.

What I liked was that he really seemed to take to what Soto was teaching. He has very good control, he just needs a little wrinkle on his FB.


Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Ramirez

Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.

If EZ can get a little movement on his FB I think he outperforms Milton and Lohse. Now is that saying a lot? no. But then I hope it ends up saying a lot.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:46 PM
But in a way that's like arguing that the Reds should've signed Franklin because if he posted numbers similar to his '03 season, Franklin would be the Reds #3 starter.....

That's three years removed with many other seasons surrounding it...nothing even similar.

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:48 PM
TRF and Jojo...your writing did make me laugh. I'm not being facetious. I really mean it was well written and I liked the humor.

jojo
01-24-2007, 04:49 PM
If EZ can get a little movement on his FB I think he outperforms Milton and Lohse. Now is that saying a lot? no. But then I hope it ends up saying a lot.


Pecota thinks Lohse and EZ could be twins in '07 and it thinks Milton might be their baby sister.....

I was more predicting what Narron might do with the rotation....

Eric_Davis
01-24-2007, 04:52 PM
Well, truthfully, i'm not that interested in what an opponents OPS is against a given pitcher nor do I really care about ERA. Concerning IP, I have no idea. But I can tell you how I think things will out. Here's what I'd guess the opening day rotation will be:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Ramirez

Maybe Ramirez gets 100 innings until Homer gets called up. If EZ sucks, then the innings will be split between him and whatever turd Narron favors at the moment. Maybe Saarloos has the edge as favored turd because the Reds seem to favor using him out of the pen too.

Sometimes, stats can get way too complicated. If opponents aren't getting on base, and they aren't hitting it hard when they do (that's OPS), and they aren't scoring a lot of runs (that's ERA), then a pitcher is doing his job.

Who cares about the rest of the stats?

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 04:55 PM
Sometimes, stats can get way too complicated. If opponents aren't getting on base, and they aren't hitting it hard when they do (that's OPS), and they aren't scoring a lot of runs (that's ERA), then a pitcher is doing his job.

Who cares about the rest of the stats?

Everyone should care.

You should understand the reason why opponents aren't getting on base or scoring runs. Is it because of the pitcher striking out batters and not walking anyone? Or is it because he's been giving up screaming liners that happen to be hit right at fielders? Is the pitcher doing his job, or is he just getting lucky?

You're looking at the end result, but you also need to understand the means by which that result was achieved.

TRF
01-24-2007, 05:05 PM
Everyone should care.

You should understand the reason why opponents aren't getting on base or scoring runs. Is it because of the pitcher striking out batters and not walking anyone? Or is it because he's been giving up screaming liners that happen to be hit right at fielders? Is the pitcher doing his job, or is he just getting lucky?

You're looking at the end result, but you also need to understand the means by which that result was achieved.

darn tootin'!

And looking at Saarloos over the past two seasons, I'd say the man has sacrificed a few chickens before starts. Even Jimmy Haynes had better peripherals in 2002, Haynes dream season.

CTA513
01-24-2007, 06:12 PM
Maybe if Dunn were blindfolded and spotted Saarloos a strike...

Dunn is 1 for 4 with 2 Ks against him.
Dunn must have been blindfolded when he went against Saarloos.

Johnny Footstool
01-24-2007, 06:23 PM
Dunn is 1 for 4 with 2 Ks against him.
Dunn must have been blindfolded when he went against Saarloos.

Hyperbole.

Falls City Beer
01-24-2007, 06:26 PM
I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.


Pretty excellent post. Especially vis. the point: DIPS, xFIP.

TRF
01-24-2007, 06:47 PM
IslandRed's post to me at least suggests Saarloos might make a good reliever. He's not by any means a good starter.

Falls City Beer
01-24-2007, 06:53 PM
IslandRed's post to me at least suggests Saarloos might make a good reliever. He's not by any means a good starter.

Simply put, this team needs innings like Mr. Furley needs silk kerchiefs. Doesn't matter where they come from, really.

Patrick Bateman
01-24-2007, 06:53 PM
I generally give a lot of weight to defense-independent pitching stats, but Saarloos' ERA has consistently beaten the xFIPs you're showing. When a guy has a pretty consistent history of allowing fewer runs than peripherals or defense-independent measures say he should, I look for reasons why. What I found with Saarloos are two things, one marginal and one noteworthy:

1. While his home-run rate is nothing special, suggesting his mistakes get crushed, as a groundball pitcher his overall extra-base hit rate seems to be lower than the typical guy in his class. Not a ton lower, but a little lower.

2. Saarloos is better with runners on than with the bases empty. Not just a little better, a lot better. That's not normal at all. The typical MLB hurler is slightly better (about 30 OPS points, roughly) with the bases empty; from 2004-2006, Saarloos was better with runners on to the tune of 80 OPS points. DIPS, xFIP, etc. are blunt tools that assume the distribution of events is random, and in most cases that assumption is good enough. But there are such things as pitchers who are better or worse than the average bear at pitching out of trouble, and Saarloos appears to be one of the better ones.

Great post.

Highlifeman21
01-24-2007, 06:54 PM
You do if they're under 6' tall and lacking a dominant fastball.

I'd like to see the Reds get something out of EZ while there are still people out there who think he can be an effective starter.

I think EZ's value will be determined by what we get via trade.

He's worth more to us not wearing a uniform in the Reds organization than he is wearing a RiverBats jersey.

Falls City Beer
01-24-2007, 06:56 PM
I think EZ's value will be determined by what we get via trade.

He's worth more to us not wearing a uniform in the Reds organization than he is wearing a RiverBats jersey.

I agree.

But I'm in the same camp as it relates to H. Bailey. I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is at this very moment.

TRF
01-24-2007, 07:09 PM
Simply put, this team needs innings like Mr. Furley needs silk kerchiefs. Doesn't matter where they come from, really.

Oh, he can give you innings. not quality ones though. And there isn't much to suggest he can. He's the worst kind of #5 starter. His 2006 season looked a lot like Jose Lima's 2005 season minus the sparkling 4.27 K/9

Anyone here clamoring for Lima Time?

Falls City Beer
01-24-2007, 07:13 PM
Oh, he can give you innings. not quality ones though. And there isn't much to suggest he can. He's the worst kind of #5 starter. His 2006 season looked a lot like Jose Lima's 2005 season minus the sparkling 4.27 K/9

Anyone here clamoring for Lima Time?

I'm thinking he'll help most as a reliever/swing starter. A la Jared Fernandez.

gm
01-24-2007, 08:07 PM
Seems to me there was another farm system guy (not Wagner) who was part of a trade that went on to do nothing somewhere else (after people said we let a gem get away).

Michael Neu?