Bryan Smith; Homer Bailey>Phil Hughes and why

[dougdirt]

Bryan Smith, who recently wrote SI.coms top 75 prospects list had this to say to response of an email he recieved


How can you rank Homer Bailey ahead of Phillip Hughes. Looking at their statistics side by side, Hughes' numbers are better in every respect. And if you say that it's the stuff that defines the greater prospect, the difference in stuff between Hughes and Bailey is minimal with Bailey having slightly more velocity although Hughes has a heavier ball. Further, if it is stuff that defines the prospect than I'm certain you can find a myriad of prospects who have the same stuff as Bailey and Hughes. The key than must be the marriage between stuff and control that translates into success and therefore the better prospect. Isn't that the embodiment of Phillip Hughes? The remarkable maturity (pitching knowledge), super stuff, and superior control all combine to create one of the best pitching prospects we've ever seen. The part of that equation that Homer Bailey holds is super stuff and improving control. Taking into account the previous argument, you can only conclude that Phillip Hughes is indeed the better pitching prospect.

Bryans response
By a power of about eight million, this type of question (dealing with these two prospects) was the most popular I received, speaking to the fabulous intensity of Yankee fans. Still, its funny, because the difference between the two players is totally negligible. Both prospects are generational, both are top tier, and both project as aces in the Major Leagues (the only two in the minors). So, I don't really think the individual ranking is important, but I will do Bailey the hnor of defending him, since he was ultimately my choice.

As far as "stuff" goes, I disagree with the question, I don't think you can find other stuff like Bailey's or Hughes' in the minor leagues. Someone like Jason Neighborgall might have impressive raw stuff, but it doesn't compare to these two players, as he has no idea where it is going. Say what you will about Homer Bailey's command, but it hardly had an adverse effect on his performance in 2006. In the end, I decided to label the Reds prospect with the minors best stuff, and I again, I disagree with the e-mail about how he labels their fastballs. I would not say that Hughes has more life than Bailey, but instead more sink, as Bailey's exploding four-seamer has plenty of life. I love Hughes' two-seamer, however, so the fastball difference is about as negligible as their overall ranking.

But, again, why Bailey? What overcomes Hughes' edge in command? Two things: breaking ball and health. Now, let me remind, I'm not claiming Hughes is poor in either category at all. His curveball is fantastic, but my reports of Bailey's hook were phenomenal. The pitch might be a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale soon, and it should generate a lot of swings-and-misses at the Major League level. While Hughes is long removed from past shoulder soreness, he is still more susceptible for future injury than Bailey.

Now listen: I believe Philip Hughes will not only pitch in the Majors in 2007, but I believe he'll start admirably in the playoffs. I believe he will anchor the Yanks' rotation for years to come. And I also believe the same for Homer Bailey's, who has enough star power to reinvigorate the city of Cincinnati.

[toledodan]

great article. the nice thing about homer bailey its not just reds fans that pimp him as the second coming. almost everyone that has seen him agree he's that good. my heart says start him opening day but my head tells me let him take his time to get here.

[LoganBuck]

I just hope the Reds resist the urge to call him up until June, and when they do treat him as a fifth starter. Limit his innings at Louisville. I don't want to see them abuse that prized arm. My ultimate fear is that the Reds use him like Justin Verlander, and let him pitch to many important innings, especially if they serendipidiously wind up in another playoff race, while also trying to stay above .500 like last year. Narron had no qualms about abusing Harang, Arroyo, and especially Ramirez (even though that was probably because he didn't really care for Ramirez). I think he would be tempted to abuse Homer, and Homer is the kind of guy that will run a high pitch count anyway.

Coddle thy pitchers

[dougdirt]

I would imagine even at the Major League level, Homer will be on a strict pitch count. I doubt his pitch count is any higher than 105 pitches this season.

[LoganBuck]

I would imagine even at the Major League level, Homer will be on a strict pitch count. I doubt his pitch count is any higher than 105 pitches this season.

I fully expect that, I guess I am looking at total innings. That study that was on here after the world series about young pitchers and the detrimental affects of rapidly increasing innings pitched per season was certainly scary.

[Topcat]

Damn that DanO for taking a HS pitcher in the 1st round;)

[dougdirt]

I fully expect that, I guess I am looking at total innings. That study that was on here after the world series about young pitchers and the detrimental affects of rapidly increasing innings pitched per season was certainly scary.

I would say that Homer is on pace to throw about 175-180 innings next season. He threw 138.2 in the regular season and he threw 2 innings in All-Star games, so lets just go with 140 innings. Usually you want to add about 30 innings per year with young players, so with pitch counts I would say that 170 innings for Bailey next year seems to be the target.

[bucksfan2]

Baily will most probably be babied this year. However wouldn't you want him pitching on every 5th day. As a #5 starter that can vary. Esp if you have an effective rotation the #5 starter may go a few weeks inbetween starts. I can forsee him coming up in june and pitching every fifth day about 5-6 inning each start.

[icehole3]

I agree bucksfan, he must pitch every fifth day and Narron should be closely watched handling him. What he did to Ramirez was inexcusable.

[klw]

I hope they consider the approach the Red Sox took with Lester last year. They started him at AAA with a strict and low pitch count with the thought that it would keep his innings down and allow him to finish the year with an arm which was not overworked and with the big club. It seemed to be working until the cancer was developed.

[RedsManRick]

No matter what I read, I just can't get rid of the feeling in my stomach that Homer Bailey = Kerry Wood v2.0. He's gonna come up, dominate, get injured, and fall off the map in the course of about 4 years.

[dougdirt]

RMR, you worry to much.

[Tommyjohn25]

I am absolutely BURSTING at the seams to see this kid pitch every day for the Reds. I am willing to wager that the first day the ball is put into his hand for the big club, it will be the most watched Reds game since at least 1999, probably 1995.

[edabbs44]

From Will Carroll's chat today:


Nick (Omaha): Do you like Homer Bailey or Phillip Hughes better for this year and as a 3-yr keeper?

Will Carroll: Hughes on both counts. Bailey is special, but young pitchers with his mechanics scare the bleep out of me.

[Aronchis]

Yes Carroll, watching Hughes throw would scare the bleep out of me. No wonder he has already had some major shoulder soreness.

[dougdirt]

I am VERY curious as to what Carroll is talkling about.... I have never seen anyone question Baileys mechanics until just now.

[RedsManRick]

I baited Will for his BP chat on Tuesday with a question about a comp between Bailey and Kerry Wood (including something on their "questionable mechanics"). Curious to see if he answers it.

[Cedric]

Every young pitcher is scary. What the hell is up with that comment.

[lollipopcurve]

Bailey's mechanics are excellent. Carroll's offbase on this one. Of course, good mechanics don't mean a pitcher's arm is injury-proof.

[corkedbat]

Maybe Smith just understands that every prospect that enters the Yankee system is automatically over-hyped by a factor of 2-3.

[LoganBuck]

Maybe Smith just understands that every prospect that enters the Yankee system is automatically over-hyped by a factor of 2-3.

There is probably more truth in that then what Yankee fans want to admit. Ever since it became clear that Bailey and Hughes had seperated themselves a little from the pack, Yankee fans must declare war on any analyst that thinks Homer is better.

[Strider]

It's fun to speculate...but it will be obvious to everyone in the next year or two. Given we won't even face Hughes...the only thing I care about is how good Homer can be...and if handled right...he can be the best Red's starter in a couple decades...maybe longer. I just hope WK and Narron understand that they are intrusted with this potentially great player and it is their responsibility to do everything they can to make sure that he develops into that dominate starter in the bigs.

[camisadelgolf]

BAILEY WILL DESTROY HUGHES IN GAME SEVEN OF '07 WORLD SERIES! g0 r3dZ!

[dougdirt]

BAILEY WILL DESTROY HUGHES IN GAME SEVEN OF '07 WORLD SERIES! g0 r3dZ!

I doubt it for several reasons....but even if either team makes it to the WS,no way they hand the ball to a rookie to start game 7.

[BoydsOfSummer]

Judge for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UPqCm3wh5I

[TOBTTReds]

my reports of Bailey's hook were phenomenal. The pitch might be a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale soon, and it should generate a lot of swings-and-misses at the Major League level.

Maybe this will calm the talk about a "developing" curve once in for all.

[dougdirt]

Bailey hasnt needed to develop a curve in a while.... its getting it to be consistant all the time. When its on, its the 75 that he was talking about. He just needs to throw it more and more and when it is consistant, seriously good luck.... the hitters will need it.

[RedsManRick]

My understanding was that his fastball was the only pitch he could reliably locate on a regular basis. For a lot of guys, they were still overmatched, but for guys who can handle his fastball and could watch the other stuff, he sometimes didn't have a second choice.

[paintmered]

I doubt it for several reasons....but even if either team makes it to the WS,no way they hand the ball to a rookie to start game 7.

I think you missed the inside joke.

[Johnny Footstool]

Damn that DanO for taking a HS pitcher in the 1st round;)

He played the lottery and got lucky.

[NYDCYankee]

Hey guys,

Yankee fan here (obviously). I came over here because I saw the thread in the Old Red Guard section about trading Arroyo/Harang for Hughes. I wanted to post in it but found out that I couldn't. So I kind still wanted to address that topic and thought I might be able to do it here. Because my response actually had to do with Bailey.

I really think that thread might be the craziest thread I have ever read in my life. Why would the Yankees trade Hughes for two NL pitchers whose ERA's would probably fly way over 4.00 if they pitched in the AL East. Arroyo's ERA in 2005 was 4.51. Let's not forget that.

The Yankees won't trade Hughes. Cashman has said he wouldn't. Of course he could go back on that. But you don't trade a Hughes/Bailey ace type for an Arroyo/Harang caliber player. That would be stupid.

If Cash every traded Hughes and that is a big IF it would be in a package for a dominent player. Miguel Cabrera maybe, Johan Santana if the Twins decide they can't afford him, which could happen before the end of this year.

Cash will sit on Hughes until those guys become availiable even then I don't think he will trade Hughes but at least it would make sense to consider. They look at Hughes as the next Jeter type player to market remember he is just 20years old.

That being said. Would you guys trade Bailey for Arroyo/Harang who have career over 4's.

No of course you wouldn't because you guys seem to be knowledgable. If you were to trade Bailey, it would be for a Santana/Cabrera type.

The Yankees are thinking the same way.

BTW. I like the board I hope to hangaround here sometimes. Maybe more so during the season.

[dougdirt]

While I agree with you on some points, I disagree on some others. No way the Yankees are letting Hughes go. If they held onto him this long, he is with them for a while. He has to much upside for them to trade off unless like you said the Fish call and are offering up Miguel Cabrera.

In the ORG I said I would trade Arroyo for Hughes without thinking twice. Firstly, I think as early as 2008, Hughes will be a better pitcher than Arroyo. I would however not trade him for Aaron Harang. Harang led the NL in wins, strikeouts, complete games and he finished second in innings pitched. Harang is one of the top 10 pitchers in the NL, and looks to stay that way. He has gotten better each of the last 4 years, and is entering his prime. Top it off with his stuff he has, I cant make the trade of Harang for a prospect pitcher, even one as highly thought of as Hughes. Harang brings to much to the table. If he were on the free agent market last season he would have brought in 15+ a season.

[NYDCYankee]

While I agree with you on some points, I disagree on some others. No way the Yankees are letting Hughes go. If they held onto him this long, he is with them for a while. He has to much upside for them to trade off unless like you said the Fish call and are offering up Miguel Cabrera.

In the ORG I said I would trade Arroyo for Hughes without thinking twice. Firstly, I think as early as 2008, Hughes will be a better pitcher than Arroyo. I would however not trade him for Aaron Harang. Harang led the NL in wins, strikeouts, complete games and he finished second in innings pitched. Harang is one of the top 10 pitchers in the NL, and looks to stay that way. He has gotten better each of the last 4 years, and is entering his prime. Top it off with his stuff he has, I cant make the trade of Harang for a prospect pitcher, even one as highly thought of as Hughes. Harang brings to much to the table. If he were on the free agent market last season he would have brought in 15+ a season.

Well we agree he isn't getting moved then. Which makes me quite happy :) .

I honestly believe the Yankees would not make a move for a pitcher like Harang after one good year. And now I like Harang I have had him on my fantasy team a couple times I love his K's which obviously shows he has good stuff.

But the Yankees have been burned to many times by NL pitchers. Pavano and Wright similar to Harang (young, you had a good year or two) and RJ.

I bet they avoid NL pitchers for the next couple of years. And if Beckett doesn't turn things around in Boston I bet the Sox do too.

I think the Yankees if they were to make an offer for Harang it might be a Melky + Tyler Clippard type package.

Even then I don't know. Apparently the Yankees wouldn't even move Melky for Mike Gonzalez who I think would probably fills more of a need on the Yankees.

[camisadelgolf]

You're absolutely right, NYDCYankee. I'm just curious--if the Reds were to offer Harang, Votto (#3 prospect), and Cueto (#4 prospect), which would never happen, do you think the Yankees could consider it?

[NYDCYankee]

You're absolutely right, NYDCYankee. I'm just curious--if the Reds were to offer Harang, Votto (#3 prospect), and Cueto (#4 prospect), which would never happen, do you think the Yankees could consider it?

I think they would have to consider it. Obviously the Reds would never offer that because Hughes is just an unproven right now. For all we know by the end of this year Cueto could be a better prospect then Hughes, doubtful but anything is possible.

I think that would definitely would cause the Yankees to think about it, I think the Yankees would have to give up something proven as well maybe a proven relief arm.

But that is much better than those other trade offers I saw of Hughes and Tabata for Harang or Arroyo. That would be stupid. Even Jim Bowden wouldn't do that.

[NYDCYankee]

Put it this way. If the Reds were going to trade Bailey to the Yankees, what would you want back from the Yankees? (And don't say Hughes because that would be a wash)

[M2]

Phillips Hughes is the highest-rated Yankees pitching prospect since Brandon Claussen. Other top 40 Yankees pitching prospects (per BA) since 1990 include Ryan Bradley, Matt Drews and Brien Taylor.

I'm not bringing this up to pick on the Yankees or Hughes. I'm just noting that top pitching prospects need to be regarded with healthy doses of skepticism.

[TRF]

As I said in ORG:

Phillip Hughes MIGHT help the Yankees to a WS in 2007.

Bronson Arroyo CAN help the Yankees to a WS in 2007.

Arroyo is a proven commodity. He's in creased his IP three straight years, and posted career bests in ERA and K's. He was one of the 10 best pitchers in the NL last year. I could care less that he would be pitching in the AL East. Arroyo is entering his peak years as a pitcher.

Hughes is as much an unknown as Bailey. And that alone is why the Yankees would do it.

[cmaff05]

As I said in ORG:

Phillip Hughes MIGHT help the Yankees to a WS in 2007.

Bronson Arroyo CAN help the Yankees to a WS in 2007.

Arroyo is a proven commodity. He's in creased his IP three straight years, and posted career bests in ERA and K's. He was one of the 10 best pitchers in the NL last year. I could care less that he would be pitching in the AL East. Arroyo is entering his peak years as a pitcher.

Hughes is as much an unknown as Bailey. And that alone is why the Yankees would do it.

How can Bronson Arroyo help the Yankees win the World Series? Did you watch him as a Red Sox? Did you watch us pelt him in the 2004 ALCS? Did you watch us pelt him in 2005?

He was a swingman for the Red Sox. A swingman. He wasn't guarenteed a starting spot.

So I'd rather take my chances on a Hughes or Bailey over Arroyo. Arroyo, you know what you are going to get from him: average pitching to mediocrity. That's what he was in the AL. Hughes and Bailey can be so much better than him.

[gonelong]

How can Bronson Arroyo help the Yankees win the World Series? Did you watch him as a Red Sox? Did you watch us pelt him in the 2004 ALCS? Did you watch us pelt him in 2005?

He was a swingman for the Red Sox. A swingman. He wasn't guarenteed a starting spot.

So I'd rather take my chances on a Hughes or Bailey over Arroyo. Arroyo, you know what you are going to get from him: average pitching to mediocrity. That's what he was in the AL. Hughes and Bailey can be so much better than him.


I think alot of Reds fans are in for a bit of a shock this year with Arroyo. I don't see how he is going to match what he did last season. I sure hope I am wrong.

GL

[dougdirt]

I think alot of Reds fans are in for a bit of a shock this year with Arroyo. I don't see how he is going to match what he did last season. I sure hope I am wrong.

GL

You probably arent wrong.... which is why if I were the GM I would be manning the phones to see what people were offering. Lets be honest, the Reds are not competing this year....they just arent going to unless a few people go 1999 on us and have career years at ages when they clearly should not be having those years. Look at 2008 and 2009 for target years, and see if you can get AA or AAA legit prospects for him.

[Puffy]

I think alot of Reds fans are in for a bit of a shock this year with Arroyo. I don't see how he is going to match what he did last season. I sure hope I am wrong.

GL

I agree GL - I'm thinking Arroyo's ERA jumps a half a run and his WHIP increases from 1.19 to the high 1.2's/low 1.3's. He'll still be well worth what the Reds are paying him, but I don't think he matches last year.

[TRF]

And in 2006 he pounded the Cardinals.

Those same Cardinals that won the WS.

Some guys it takes longer.

In 2006, Arroyo was 7th in all of baseball in ERA, tied for 9th in Strikeouts and 1st in IP.

No Yankee pitcher cracked the top 10 in any of those categories. That's right, Arroyo was better last year than any Yankee pitcher.

[dougdirt]

TRF, I think his point being that the AL is much more difficult to pitch in than the NL, thanks to the DH for starters and a more offensive minded approach AL teams have.

[cmaff05]

And in 2006 he pounded the Cardinals.

Those same Cardinals that won the WS.

Some guys it takes longer.

In 2006, Arroyo was 7th in all of baseball in ERA, tied for 9th in Strikeouts and 1st in IP.

No Yankee pitcher cracked the top 10 in any of those categories. That's right, Arroyo was better last year than any Yankee pitcher.

Can you look at his career instead of one outlier year? Please, look at this career. He has been an average pitcher his whole career. And please don't bring up the Chris Carpenter comparisions; Bronson Arroyo was picked up off a trash heap by the Pirates. He has never had ace stuff, and I doubt he'll even produce a year like that again.

If Bailey was a Yankee, and you were the Yankee GM, would you trade Bailey for Arroyo? Please answer me this question.

[TRF]

If I thought It would get me a WS ring?

In a heartbeat.

Bailey is just as unproven as Hughes. Arroyo is coming off a very successful season in the bigs. He did have a poor 2005, but 2006 wasn't just because he switched leagues. He has taken a step forward. Now, can he produce 2006 numbers in 2007? Of course he can. He does have the ability. Will he? I really don't know.

But in 2007, On a team like the Yankees, I bet Arroyo puts up something like 230 IP, 180 K's and a 3.80ish ERA.

Hell yes, if I am the Yankees, I make that trade, especially knowing I have him for two years.

[cmaff05]

If I thought It would get me a WS ring?

In a heartbeat.

Bailey is just as unproven as Hughes. Arroyo is coming off a very successful season in the bigs. He did have a poor 2005, but 2006 wasn't just because he switched leagues. He has taken a step forward. Now, can he produce 2006 numbers in 2007? Of course he can. He does have the ability. Will he? I really don't know.

But in 2007, On a team like the Yankees, I bet Arroyo puts up something like 230 IP, 180 K's and a 3.80ish ERA.

Hell yes, if I am the Yankees, I make that trade, especially knowing I have him for two years.

So you'd trade trade Bailey and recieve Arroyo (if they were on different teams)?

[TRF]

If I were the Yankees, and I had Bailey, and it had been 6 years since my last championship, Yes, I'd trade him for Arroyo.

Better than the 40+ million dollar gamble they made on Kei Agawa.

[cmaff05]

If I were the Yankees, and I had Bailey, and it had been 6 years since my last championship, Yes, I'd trade him for Arroyo.


Just want to let you know that you are probably alone in this thinking. No GM would seriously entertain trading a incredible pitching prospect for Bronson Arroyo. And I seriously doubt many fans would think your way either.

[TRF]

TRF, I think his point being that the AL is much more difficult to pitch in than the NL, thanks to the DH for starters and a more offensive minded approach AL teams have.

18 games against TB.

18 games against Baltimore.

Sure, it's no easy task to pitch in MLB. But the NL Central has sent a team to the WS 3 years in a row. It isn't a cakewalk to pitch in the NL.

[TRF]

Just want to let you know that you are probably alone in this thinking. No GM would seriously entertain trading a incredible pitching prospect for Bronson Arroyo. And I seriously doubt many fans would think your way either.

Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. And Zambrano never had a year like Arroyo just did.

[cmaff05]

Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.

So we are going to take one idiotic trade (and one idiotic GM) and then make it seem like every GM would do a trade like that?

[TRF]

Mark Mulder for Dan Haren.

Haren wasn't really a prospect anymore, but he certainly hadn't proven he would be as good as he has been with the A's. And he looks to only get better.

[RedsManRick]

If I were the Yankees, and I had Bailey, and it had been 6 years since my last championship, Yes, I'd trade him for Arroyo.

Better than the 40+ million dollar gamble they made on Kei Agawa.

Actually, no. Money is money, and while it is finite, it's fungible. It's Agawa doesn't work out, it's cost them nothing more than the cash spent. There is only one Phillip Hughes and if he was on the open market right now, he'd cost a lot more than 40 million. If they trade Hughes away, there's no way to recoup that loss. He doesn't have more Phillip Hughes' sitting in a bank account.

If I were the Reds and the Padres offered me Brian Lawrence, a 30 year old pitcher with similar experience and numbers under his belt for Homer Bailey, I'd laugh in their face. While we can say that Arroyo has taken a major step forward, he also reaped the benefit of moving from the AL East to the NL Central. You could've anticipated a half run gain from that alone. If he moves back to the AL East, you'd likely anticipate a return to his Boston numbers. Furthermore, if all I'm expecting is 200 league average innings, why not just bring Hughes up and see if he can do it? He's cheaper (and will remain so for 4 years), younger, and has a higher ceiling.

[TRF]

I didn't say I would make the trade If I were the Reds.

The Reds are not going to compete for a shot at the WS this year. The Yankees are.

Again, Bronson Arroyo was better in 2006 than EVERY Yankee starter.

That point is irrefutable.

[TRF]

BTW, no way in hell does Hughes get 40 mil without ever having thrown a pitch in the MLB.

Yankee fans overhype their prospects, but that was a ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality.

[cmaff05]

I didn't say I would make the trade If I were the Reds.

The Reds are not going to compete for a shot at the WS this year. The Yankees are.

Again, Bronson Arroyo was better in 2006 than EVERY Yankee starter.

That point is irrefutable.

So what? Was he better than every Yankee starter in 2004? Or 2005?

[cmaff05]

BTW, no way in hell does Hughes get 40 mil without ever having thrown a pitch in the MLB.

Yankee fans overhype their prospects, but that was a ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality.

Um, no offense, but there is an awful lot of hype going around for Homer Bailey. Just because the Yankees have a bigger fanbase than the Reds doesn't mean he is being overhyped.

And I hate to mention it, but with what Bailey and Hughes have accomplished and what their ceilings were, wouldn't you be excited about both of them and their ceilings and hype them?

And where pitchers such as Gil Meche get $55 million dollars for just their potential and doing nothing else, the $40 million for Hughes or Bailey isn't all that bad.

[RedsManRick]

I didn't say I would make the trade If I were the Reds.

The Reds are not going to compete for a shot at the WS this year. The Yankees are.

Again, Bronson Arroyo was better in 2006 than EVERY Yankee starter.

That point is irrefutable.

Unfortunately, if the Yanks acquire Arroyo, they get the 2007 Yankee version and not the 2006 Reds version. Assuming you are going to get the exact same performance is stupid. Arroyo's age, history, league differences, etc. suggest he won't be the same "ace" pitcher in 2007 in the AL East as he was in 2006 in the NL Central.

Do I think Arroyo is a solid pitcher who I want on my staff? Absolutely. Do I think we just saw Arroyo have his career year? Yeah, I do. If I were the Yankees and I had the choice of having 2 years of Arroyo and having him in my rotation in 2007 or having 6 years of Hughes and having him in my rotation in 2007, I take Hughes. Sure the Yankees want to win in 2007. But they also want to win in 2008, 2009, etc. Arroyo MIGHT be a better pitcher than Hughes in 2007, maybe even in 2008 as well. But I don't think that upgrade is worth the ace potential of Hughes and the guarantee of having him for the next 6 seasons. Besides, put both Hughes and Arroyo in pinstripes for 2007 and I'm not convinced Arroyo is the better pitcher.

The Yankees can have their cake and eat it too -- trading away Hughes for anything less than a proven #1/#2 starter would be a step back.

[cmaff05]

Here's another perspective:

Would you trade Carl Pavano for Philip Hughes? He had a GREAT year in 2004 in the NL, better than anything that Bronson Arroyo has done. But he was mediocre in the AL in 2005.

One could argue that if you wanted to win the World Series and you were an NL team, Carl Pavano would be a better choice than Homer Bailey because Homer Bailey is not a major league pitcher yet and Carl Pavano is.

So would you make a Carl Pavano for Homer Bailey trade?

[RedsManRick]

Um, no offense, but there is an awful lot of hype going around for Homer Bailey. Just because the Yankees have a bigger fanbase than the Reds doesn't mean he is being overhyped.

And I hate to mention it, but with what Bailey and Hughes have accomplished and what their ceilings were, wouldn't you be excited about both of them and their ceilings and hype them?

And where pitchers such as Gil Meche get $55 million dollars for just their potential and doing nothing else, the $40 million for Hughes or Bailey isn't all that bad.

How much money did Matsusaka get? Yeah, Hughes is less experienced, but if you don't think the Yankees would pay $10 million per over 4+ years for a 20 year old pitcher who has absolutely blown away his competition, I think you're crazy.

There is a whole lot more money out there than there is talent worth spending it on. The Cubs just paid 11MM for a guy who hasn't thrown a single professional pitch and wasn't even that effective in college.

[TRF]

Going back 2 years and saying that's the player that is coming my way is no less stupid. I'd look at trends. Arroyo hit a wall in 2005, and that affected his game. but his IP has gone up 3 years straight. He's trending towards being a better pitcher, not a worse one. The comparison to Pavano makes no sense as Pavano didn't throw a pitch in the bigs last year.

[RedsManRick]

Here's another perspective:

Would you trade Carl Pavano for Philip Hughes? He had a GREAT year in 2004 in the NL, better than anything that Bronson Arroyo has done. But he was mediocre in the AL in 2005.

One could argue that if you wanted to win the World Series and you were an NL team, Carl Pavano would be a better choice than Homer Bailey because Homer Bailey is not a major league pitcher yet and Carl Pavano is.

So would you make a Carl Pavano for Homer Bailey trade?

Arroyo 2006
240.2 IP
3.29 ERA
1.188 WHIP
184 K
14-11 W/L
1.153 Park Factor for Runs (1st in MLB) -- 3.06 adjusted ERA


Pavano 2004:
222.1 IP
3.00 ERA
1.174 WHIP
139 K
18-8 W/L
.898 Park Factor for Runs (27th in MLB) -- 3.16 adjusted ERA

So when you adjust for park factors, the only thing Pavano did better was have a very slightly better WHIP and won more games. If you want to argue that wins are a good indicator of pitcher performance, Bert Blyleven and Nolan Ryan say hello.

[cmaff05]

Arroyo 2006
240.2 IP
3.29 ERA
1.188 WHIP
184 K
14-11 W/L
1.153 Park Factor for Runs (1st in MLB) -- 3.06 adjusted ERA


Pavano 2004:
222.1 IP
3.00 ERA
1.174 WHIP
139 K
18-8 W/L
.898 Park Factor for Runs (27th in MLB) -- 3.16 adjusted ERA

So when you adjust for park factors, the only thing Pavano did better was have a very slightly better WHIP and won more games. If you want to argue that wins are a good indicator of pitcher performance, Bert Blyleven and Nolan Ryan say hello.

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

[TRF]

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

big difference

[cmaff05]

How about that Pavano didn't throw a pitch in the majors last year? Or is that not part of the criteria?

Of course it's in the criteria.

But the fact that you would think Brian Cashman would ever want to trade Phillip Hughes for Bronson Arroyo or would even entertain that thought without hanging up makes me think that you are a dumbass and quite frankly makes alot of Reds fans look pretty bad.

[TRF]

Of course it's in the criteria.

But the fact that you would think Brian Cashman would ever want to trade Phillip Hughes for Bronson Arroyo makes me think that you are a dumbass and quite frankly makes alot of Reds fans look pretty bad.


And here I was just about to suggest you stick around. We like viewpoints from fans of other teams. This isn't a talk smack board, it's a discussion board.

Learn the difference or go somewhere else.

[RedsManRick]

Who's arguing wins here exactly? I never brought up that conversation. Pavano had a lower ERA. Pavano's 2004 and Arroyo's 2006 were both outliers on their careers as a hole. The only difference is that Arroyo is a workhorse and Pavano is always injured.

"(Pavano) had a GREAT year in 2004 in the NL, better than anything that Bronson Arroyo has done"

This was wrong. I was simply showing it.

[M2]

Um, no offense, but there is an awful lot of hype going around for Homer Bailey.

You are 100% correct. It goes back to the old adage that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Hughes and Bailey will probably be top 10 prospects on the BA list, but that's hardly the Good Housekeeping seal of immediate greatness. Here's the pitchers who've made the BA top 10 over the previous four years:

Jesse Foppert (#5, 2003) - Came up in 2003, struggled and then blew up his arm.
Jose Contreras (#6, 2003) - Cuban veteran who's managed only one notably good campaign as a starter in four major league seasons.
Gavin Floyd (#9, 2003) - So far has a 6.96 ERA in 108.2 IP. The Phillies decided to trade him this offseason as part of a package for an established pitcher (Freddy Garcia).
Francisco Rodriguez (#10, 2003) - Elite closer, though he'd already come up and dominated in the postseason before he received this ranking.
Edwin Jackson (#4, 2004) - 5.48 ERA in 111.2 IP. The Dodgers dealt him last year to the Devil Rays as part of a package for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.
Greg Miller (#8, 2004) - Blew out his arm before the 2004 season, currently trying to resurrect his career with mixed results.
Felix Hernandez (#2, 2005) - Brilliant 2005 debut (84.1 IP), struggled in 2006.
Scott Kazmir (#7, 2006) - Solid rookie season in 2005, looked like he was taking a big step forward in 2006, but a shoulder injury ended his season after 24 starts. Supposedly he'll be ready for spring training.
Francisco Liriano (#6, 2006) - Superhuman debut last season, but felled by serious arm injuries. Will miss all of 2007.
Chad Billingsley (#7, 2006) - Mixed results in 2006 debut -- good ERA, lacked control.
Justin Verlander (#8, 2006) - 2006 AL Rookie of the Year, looks like the next big thing.
Matt Cain (#9, 2006) - Had a solid 2006 rookie campaign (190.2 IP, 4.15 ERA) thanks to a 2nd half surge. Working through control issues.

Injuries and bouts with ineffectiveness loom in pretty much every pitcher's future, even the studs.

[Rocket22]

OK, as a Yankees fan I see this arguement and have read a lot of articles like this and I have never seen Bailey pitch, but I have seen Hughes pitch in his Playoff game this past September in AA. Hughes has nasty stuff, I know Bailey has nasty stuff too and may actually have better stuff, so you could even give the edge to Bailey if you would like. What sets the two apart, IMO, is control. Hughes has never had a WHIP over 1.00 and Bailey has not had a WHIP under 1.00. Bailey has walked twice as many batters per nine innings (4.07-2.05) throughout their minor league career. The fact that Hughes such amazing control Already makes him the better pitcher and prospect at this point and time.

And health is not nearly the issue some people make it out to be. The Yankees shut him down early because they knew the gem they had in Hughes and did not want to push anything with him so early and at such a young age. This season the Yanks plan to let Hughes loose, which is pretty scary for opposing batters.

[lollipopcurve]

And health is not nearly the issue some people make it out to be. The Yankees shut him down early because they knew the gem they had in Hughes and did not want to push anything with him so early and at such a young age. This season the Yanks plan to let Hughes loose, which is pretty scary for opposing batters.

Hughes had some arm issues in 2005, more so than in 06. He only threw 85 innings in 05 -- I can't remember what the issue was -- I'm guessing elbow -- but I believe he was shut down for quite a while. Obviously it's not a major concern at the moment, but there's no doubt you'd rather see less of that in a pitcher's past than more, which is where the edge currently goes to Bailey.

[Bigredfan#1]

No matter what I read, I just can't get rid of the feeling in my stomach that Homer Bailey = Kerry Wood v2.0. He's gonna come up, dominate, get injured, and fall off the map in the course of about 4 years.

One difference might be that Wood's motion was not
best and most believe that this has caused much of his problems. I have not read anything negative about Bailey's motion!

[Rocket22]

Hughes had some arm issues in 2005, more so than in 06. He only threw 85 innings in 05 -- I can't remember what the issue was -- I'm guessing elbow -- but I believe he was shut down for quite a while. Obviously it's not a major concern at the moment, but there's no doubt you'd rather see less of that in a pitcher's past than more, which is where the edge currently goes to Bailey.

Of course you would like to see no sort of setback, but the Yankees put him to the shelf because they did not want to risk anything. Hughes was diagnosed with a Slight case of tendonitis. Nothing serious at all, just the Yankees babying their top prospect at the time.

Pitching wise, Hughes has the edge. They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's may even be a Little better, but the fact that Hughes the unbelievable control already to go with his great stuff has to make him the better Pitcher right now.

[Rocket22]

One difference might be that Wood's motion was not
best and most believe that this has caused much of his problems. I have not read anything negative about Bailey's motion!

Wood's injuries definitely had to do with his pitching motion.

[Superdude]

They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's may even be a Little better

They both have NASTY stuff, Bailey's definitely a Little better. Although I do agree about Hughes currently being the better pitcher.

[dougdirt]

Hughes has the better chance to succeed in the Majors tomorrow, Bailey has the best shot to succeed in 2 years. Just my opinion.

[NYDCYankee]

BTW, no way in hell does Hughes get 40 mil without ever having thrown a pitch in the MLB.

Yankee fans overhype their prospects, but that was a ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality.

Baseball America isn't a collection of Yankee fans.

[NYDCYankee]

18 games against TB.

18 games against Baltimore.

Sure, it's no easy task to pitch in MLB. But the NL Central has sent a team to the WS 3 years in a row. It isn't a cakewalk to pitch in the NL.


Have you see Tampa's offense. They are more explosive than any NL Central team.

Baltimore does stink though.

[NYDCYankee]

If I thought It would get me a WS ring?

In a heartbeat.

Bailey is just as unproven as Hughes. Arroyo is coming off a very successful season in the bigs. He did have a poor 2005, but 2006 wasn't just because he switched leagues. He has taken a step forward. Now, can he produce 2006 numbers in 2007? Of course he can. He does have the ability. Will he? I really don't know.

But in 2007, On a team like the Yankees, I bet Arroyo puts up something like 230 IP, 180 K's and a 3.80ish ERA.

Hell yes, if I am the Yankees, I make that trade, especially knowing I have him for two years.

You act like it is a guarantee that if Arroyo goes to the Yankees they will win the WS. Talk about overrating your own players.

[NYDCYankee]

TRF you also said, that for Arroyo or Harang that the Yankees should give up Hughes and a boatload of prospects. What other prospects would you like for Arroyo?

[camisadelgolf]

Put it this way. If the Reds were going to trade Bailey to the Yankees, what would you want back from the Yankees? (And don't say Hughes because that would be a wash)

This might be ridiculous, but I'd offer Bailey for Chien Ming-Wang, Melky Cabrera, T.J. Beam, and Chris Britton.

[Vicequaizer]

First post. Fans overrating their own players and underrating another's player is the law of life.

Just a stab, but using TRF's "Hughes plus two other prospects, an arm and an OF" as a starter, I'd guess a package like:
1) Phil Hughes
2) Steven Jackson (the other pitcher not named Ohlendorf the Yankees got in the RJ trade)
3) Brett Gardner...a 23 years old OF with 80 speed and decent plate discipline. Will start 2007 as AAA CF.
Lacking power, but has very good range at center utilizing his great speed, not great but a servicable arm.
Capable of stealing 60 bases in a fullseason.
Think Juan Pierre with better plate discipline and arm, or a Scott Podsednick of 2005.

I didn't put Melky in because he by definition isn't a "prospect" anymore...tho that is a nitpick.

That being said, the Yankees will never do that trade.
People say Arroyo is a "proven" player, but in reality, the only thing he has proven is that he is capable to pitch great...in the NL Central.
In the AL East (which is what matters for the Yankees), so far has shown to be only mediocre, as of yet.
Whether that will change is still unknown.
Not to mention, him getting royally bombed in the 2004 ALCS definitely didn't leave the best image to the Yankees/Cashman.

O/T, but was Arroyo the guy who hit two HRs off the same pitcher in a row in the same week early in 2006?
I vaguely remember someone on ESPN killing the opposing pitcher for giving up HRs in consecutive games to a pitcher who was in the AL for the last three years.

PS, Wang might actually be a good fit for a team like the Reds who play in a hitters park...atleast a better fit than Milton.
Having A-Gon at SS is only going to help a sinkerballer.

[Vicequaizer]

This might be ridiculous, but I'd offer Bailey for Chien Ming-Wang, Melky Cabrera, T.J. Beam, and Chris Britton.

Damn, I actually like that package and would want the Yankees to bite that...had they not traded away RJ (I liked that trade, but just in terms of available starters, RJ is necessary without Wang).
I'll be willing to start the season with a rotation of Mussina-Pettitte-RJ-Pavano-Igawa with Karstens and/or Rasner spot-starting when nececcary, if that means both Hughes and Bailey potentially coming up midseason, with possibly Sanchez available.

[NYDCYankee]

This might be ridiculous, but I'd offer Bailey for Chien Ming-Wang, Melky Cabrera, T.J. Beam, and Chris Britton.

Ok that is kind of my point.

As a Reds fan you would want:

1. Wang: finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting (someone who is better than Arroyo and Harang)
2. A young inexpensive exciting outfielder
3. Beam (kind of stinks IMO, but could put it together)
4. Britton who is young and pitched very well last year.

I understand you guys wanting that back in a trade for your best prospect, but now compare that to the TRF's offer of.

Arroyo for Hughes and a boatload of prospects. Seems crazy right?

[LoganBuck]

The Yankees owe the Reds anyway. It would even out the Paul Oneil/Roberto Kelly trade.

:D

[Patrick Bateman]

The Yankees owe the Reds anyway. It would even out the Paul Oneil/Roberto Kelly trade.

:D

We already basically got Bronson Arroyo out of them for Drew Hensen.

[blumj]

We already basically got Bronson Arroyo out of them for Drew Hensen.

Well, okay, but the Red Sox got Wily Mo Pena from the Yankees for a waiver claim fee, so there. :laugh:

[Patrick Bateman]

Well, okay, but the Red Sox got Wily Mo Pena from the Yankees for a waiver claim fee, so there. :laugh:

Basically based on the turn of events. As long as the Yanks keep paying the price and we don't. :thumbup:

[NYDCYankee]

I am gonna be honest with you guys. Earlier in the offseason when there was all that buzz about ARod getting traded (and I think it may be wisest for the Yankees to move him since he could opt out) I was thinking moving him to Cincy for Bailey and Encarnacion could be a fit. Obviously there were never any rumors about the two teams talking but it is just something I had thought of.

[Vicequaizer]

Theoretically he can, but WILL he is another story.
And honestly, I doubt he'll opt out...for the lack of better words, he cares about his image too much.
If he falter in the playoffs again, he won't want to opt out of his contract and forever be labeled as the guy who had the talent but couldn't cut it under pressure.
If he does great in the playoffs, he won't get booed and thus not have a reason to opt out.
It will definitely not be money, as no one is going to give him $25 million per year even in this crazy market.
And lastly, IF he opts out, I can see the Yankees and him signing a longer, cheaper deal than the three or four years left in his contract.
No way, NO WAY the Yankees let ARod go away for nothing.