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FutureRedsGM
01-26-2007, 12:47 PM
Interesting paragraph from Lonnie Wheeler article in the Post:


"Some folks were displeased to see the Reds part this week with the youth (24) and Double-A numbers of reliever David Shafer in return for veteran Kirk Saarloos. They argue that Saarloos is just another .500 pitcher - but hey, at 27, he can be a .500 pitcher for years to come. Besides that, when he was 23, working the Texas League, the right-hander went 10-1 with a 1.40 earned run average, giving up only 48 hits in 83 innings. Those are Homer Bailey numbers. And you get five bonus years of big-league experience."

IMHO, that is a great way to look at this deal. WK took a chance with minimal risk. Cincy doesn't have the resources for Barry Zito, but smarts in the front office can make up for some of the lack of cash.

BRM
01-26-2007, 12:58 PM
Saarloos had better numbers than Shafer at AA at a similar age. Interesting.

Joseph
01-26-2007, 12:59 PM
Shafer was unlikely to ever get a real chance here barring massive injury. Wayne's shown a proclivity for veteran bullpenners and the kids really have to be something special to break that mold apparently.

This might not help us [I think it might actually] but it does not hurt us either.

It's a scratch off ticket, let's see if 3 numbers match.

15fan
01-26-2007, 01:15 PM
Billy Beane coaxed a very nice year out of Mike Neu in 2003 after taking Mike from Cincinnati in the 2002 Rule V draft.

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.

TRF
01-26-2007, 01:26 PM
Saarloos had better numbers than Shafer at AA at a similar age. Interesting.

But worse numbers as a major leaguer than EZ. Just more service time.

Z-Fly
01-26-2007, 01:37 PM
But worse numbers as a major leaguer than EZ. Just more service time.

They are both guys that in 30 years no one will remember who they were (Exept us redszoners). They are what they are, guys with live arms who just fill a spot. I would call them serviceable. Soorlos was a good pick up.

roby
01-26-2007, 01:37 PM
I have been critical of the Reds sitting on their hands and doing very little to improve this winter. I have to say that I like the pick-up of Saarloos a lot. he is the kind of guy that may just put it all together and help the reds in the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation. He seems to have good stuff...and if he is given a role and not bounced around too much...he could really be a good addition. Good job, Wayne! :thumbup:

TRF
01-26-2007, 01:47 PM
They are both guys that in 30 years no one will remember who they were (Exept us redszoners). They are what they are, guys with live arms who just fill a spot. I would call them serviceable. Soorlos was a good pick up.

Maybe, but EZ has some upside to him. He was a markedly different pitcher in 2006 than he was in 2005. He learned the changeup from Soto, and he learned it quick. All he needs is to get some movement on his fastball. He's young enough still (He turns 24 on Sunday) to actually learn how to do that.

I don't want to hear about how Dick Pole has taken dreck like Saarloos under his wing. I want to hear how he and Soto have noticed a tiny flaw in EZ's delivery that once corrected put some late life on a FB that right now sits in the 92-94 MPH range.

28 year olds that K no one don't excite me at all. 24 year olds that K close to 6 per game, and show improvement from the year before, in both the majors and the minors, do.

fewfirstchoice
01-26-2007, 02:02 PM
The Sarloose(spelling) trade was a good trade no matter how you look at it.

TRF
01-26-2007, 02:05 PM
The Sarloose(spelling) trade was a good trade no matter how you look at it.

opinion, not fact. And I happen to disagree.

pedro
01-26-2007, 02:06 PM
TRF, I think you greatly overvalue some of the minor league relievers in the Reds system.

Johnny Footstool
01-26-2007, 02:09 PM
The Sarloose(spelling) trade was a good trade no matter how you look at it.

I don't think it was especially good or bad. It's a low risk maneuver. If Saarloos finds some magic (and the odds are strongly against him doing that), it's a big win for the Reds. But if he bombs, the Reds didn't really give up anything extremely valuable for him.

Heath
01-26-2007, 02:14 PM
TRF, I think you greatly overvalue some of the minor league relievers in the Reds system.

And sometimes we have the myopia of why people won't come to Cincinnati to play. It has to be Wayne's fault.

David Shafer will be a nice 6th or 7th inning guy in Oakland in about 2-3 years. Nothing spectacular.

TRF
01-26-2007, 02:36 PM
TRF, I think you greatly overvalue some of the minor league relievers in the Reds system.

Nah. Shafer here or not makes no difference to me. I never really noticed him. I am a Calvin Medlock fan though.

But Saarloos is just a bad pitcher, who had rate stat last year that made Joe Mays look good.

Now imagine that in the hitter friendly parks of the NL Central.

dfs
01-26-2007, 03:06 PM
Shafer was unlikely to ever get a real chance here barring massive injury. Wayne's shown a proclivity for veteran bullpenners and the kids really have to be something special to break that mold apparently.

This is OT and I don't know if that's Wayne or not, but it sure as h*ll is Jerry Narron. That's two GM's in a row that have gone out of their way to sign recognizable "major league" bullpen arms for millions of dollars instead of trying to get minor league guys into low leverage bullpen slots.

I know there are several members who feel the reds have sat on their hands all off-season. I happen to see it from the other way. I think they've had a decent off season where they did a lot to get the talent on the 40 man roster in the form that they want it.

The two big things I can see them doing is get junior out of center field and to get Jerry Narron to use his bullpen in a consistant situational model. If he can do that, learn to use guys within their own role and not burn them up and then discard them, the team can take a couple of strides forward this season.

If he can't do that, If we get to June and the pen is a mess and he continues to make excuses, the team needs to find a manager that can run a bullpen. Organizationally, they are paying too much in terms of talent and money into the bullpen. If he can't make it work AGAIN this year, they need to let him go.

Ltlabner
01-26-2007, 03:20 PM
Billy Beane coaxed a very nice year out of Mike Neu in 2003 after taking Mike from Cincinnati in the 2002 Rule V draft.

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.

And if he coaxes a nice year out of Shefer what's he get? Maybe a few good bullpen innings on his AAA team?

If the "scratch off" ticket of Sarloos pays off we get what? An innings eater that can put up average numbers. Something that the team needs desperatley.

TOBTTReds
01-26-2007, 03:21 PM
Nah. Shafer here or not makes no difference to me. I never really noticed him. I am a Calvin Medlock fan though.

But Saarloos is just a bad pitcher, who had rate stat last year that made Joe Mays look good.

Now imagine that in the hitter friendly parks of the NL Central.

When you don't K or BB people, you give up more hits because the ball is put in play more. A lot of people (not saying you) don't understand this.

Take a look at his games. The gargantuan amount of hits, didn't add up to a lot of runs. Just his last 6 starts (off of his profile on mlb.com, that is why I chose 6).

6 ip, 8 h, 2 er
6 ip, 11 h, 2 er
6.1, 6 h, 1 er
3 ip, 7 h, 4 er
5.1, 8 h, 3 er
5 ip, 8 h, 2 er

This equals a 3.99 ERA, despite having a WHIP of 1.89.

Of course we would like to see more innings per start, but I don't know the situations or why he was taken out.

Saarloos was ranked 21st in MOST singles allowed per plate appearance (>100 ip, 138 qualify), but ranked 61st in most doubles allowed per plate appearance. His HR/9 though is not impressive.

As mentioned in the past, he is a GB pitcher, ranking 15th in the league in GB % at 54%. When you are a GB pitcher, the parks don't have that much of an effect on you, like it would for an Eric Milton type pitcher.

Ltlabner
01-26-2007, 03:22 PM
Maybe, but EZ has some upside to him. He was a markedly different pitcher in 2006 than he was in 2005. He learned the changeup from Soto, and he learned it quick. All he needs is to get some movement on his fastball. He's young enough still (He turns 24 on Sunday) to actually learn how to do that.

I don't want to hear about how Dick Pole has taken dreck like Saarloos under his wing. I want to hear how he and Soto have noticed a tiny flaw in EZ's delivery that once corrected put some late life on a FB that right now sits in the 92-94 MPH range.

28 year olds that K no one don't excite me at all. 24 year olds that K close to 6 per game, and show improvement from the year before, in both the majors and the minors, do.

And hypothetically if Dick helps both EZ and Sarloos to improve? That hurts the team how?

pedro
01-26-2007, 03:27 PM
I'm just not as hopeful about EZ as some here. I don't see how he's going to have an ERA less than 5. He just doesn't have the stuff IMO.

Highlifeman21
01-26-2007, 03:28 PM
TRF, I think you greatly overvalue some of the minor league relievers in the Reds system.


I tend to agree.

There seems to be a lot of favorable opinion on Elizardo Ramirez, who's never shown to have the endurance/duration of a starter. He's a spot starter or emergency starter at best, and it's a fact that the kid struggles to see the 7th inning of many of his games. EZ had 10 QS last year, but only 4 times did he go longer than 6.0 IP, and those were 6.1, 6.2, 7.0 and 8.0 respectively. His other 6 QS, he went exactly 6.0 IP.

The kid is a reliever with a fastball that's straight as an arrow. He's very hittable.

TRF
01-26-2007, 04:47 PM
On July 27, EZ's ERA was 4.22. Since he likely got injured in one of his next two starts, and because Narron criminally misused him in his last two appearances, a relief appearance followed by a start the next day we were denied what might have been a very nice rookie year.

Had he not been so badly managed, and had he not gotten hurt, IMO he would have hit about 150-160 IP. I also think he'd have maintained that 4.20-4.50 ERA.

Which brings me to my next point. EZ was 7th in IP for pitchers 23 or younger in the NL, he'd have likely been in the top 3 had he not gotten hurt, and hie ERA would have been favorably comparable to some of the best young arms that pitched in that age group last year.

His FB is pretty straight. but it isn't like he tops out at 86 MPH. He touches 94, but sits anywhere from 92 on up. He has an excellent changeup, and he's coachable. In other words, his development continues. I don't think he's going to be a #1 starter. I'm not dellusional. But he's light years ahead of a stiff like Saarloos.

fewfirstchoice
01-26-2007, 04:48 PM
It is my oppinion but it is also a fact.Shafer was a minor leaguer who wasnt ever going to add anything to the Reds lineup.With Saarrloose you have a player that can come in and hold down the 5th spot in the roatation.Is he going to come in and blow anyone away NO.Is he going to be a Cy young winner no.But he can come in and throw ground balls and keep the Reds in the game.He is a guy that can have a 10 and 10 record with a 4.50 era.I would take that from my 5th starter.

TRF
01-26-2007, 04:49 PM
When you don't K or BB people, you give up more hits because the ball is put in play more. A lot of people (not saying you) don't understand this.

Take a look at his games. The gargantuan amount of hits, didn't add up to a lot of runs. Just his last 6 starts (off of his profile on mlb.com, that is why I chose 6).

6 ip, 8 h, 2 er
6 ip, 11 h, 2 er
6.1, 6 h, 1 er
3 ip, 7 h, 4 er
5.1, 8 h, 3 er
5 ip, 8 h, 2 er

This equals a 3.99 ERA, despite having a WHIP of 1.89.

Of course we would like to see more innings per start, but I don't know the situations or why he was taken out.

Saarloos was ranked 21st in MOST singles allowed per plate appearance (>100 ip, 138 qualify), but ranked 61st in most doubles allowed per plate appearance. His HR/9 though is not impressive.

As mentioned in the past, he is a GB pitcher, ranking 15th in the league in GB % at 54%. When you are a GB pitcher, the parks don't have that much of an effect on you, like it would for an Eric Milton type pitcher.

The problem is he leaves no margin for error, and his HR rate which was high in the pitcher friendly parks of the AL West will skyrocket in the cozy confines of the NL Central.

TRF
01-26-2007, 04:51 PM
It is my oppinion but it is also a fact.Shafer was a minor leaguer who wasnt ever going to add anything to the Reds lineup.With Saarrloose you have a player that can come in and hold down the 5th spot in the roatation.Is he going to come in and blow anyone away NO.Is he going to be a Cy young winner no.But he can come in and throw ground balls and keep the Reds in the game.He is a guy that can have a 10 and 10 record with a 4.50 era.I would take that from my 5th starter.

What in his history suggests to you he can have a 4.50 ERA playing the majority of his games at GABP? Nevermind visits to Wrigley, Minute Maid and the New Busch Stadium (or whatever it's called).

Eric_Davis
01-26-2007, 04:52 PM
But worse numbers as a major leaguer than EZ. Just more service time.

No he doesn't!

TRF
01-26-2007, 04:54 PM
yes he does. Only his ERA is better. All of EZ's peripherals are better.

fewfirstchoice
01-26-2007, 06:04 PM
Exactly that his history!

Mario-Rijo
01-28-2007, 07:51 PM
I happen to agree with TRF on this one. I like EZ and think he will be a solid starter and very soon, some need to remember the defense he was working with last year. The one start in Arizona alone his defense committed like 3 errors, that in itself would cause a young pitcher to take a different approach for who knows how long.

He may have to add some movement to his fastball, but what else does he need to improve? he throws a good change and his curveball has tight break to it. From where I sit anything else he needs to work on would come from just pitching in the Majors and getting that experience under his belt. I.E. Composure, endurance, knowledge of the hitters etc.

Again as has been stated I don't expect him to be a superstar but he can definitely be a solid member of our rotation.

As far as Saarloos goes, I will reserve judgement until I have seen him pitch a few games (once hitters get there timing down). I agree his HR rate last year wasn't good and he is coming to a division with some smaller parks, however his competition likely won't be as tough either and he won't have to face a DH 2-3 times a game.

I(heart)Freel
01-29-2007, 01:58 PM
Not sure why we think it would be "bad" for Saarloos to come in and do what we does - and that's all we should expect, with the slight AL to NL adjustment - and why it would also be "bad" for EZ to start in Louisville and continue his progression and mastery of secondary pitches - AND work on endurance? (Good point by someone before about how bad he was after 6 innings.)

Why does this scenario seem ideal to me?

I say it's a good move for WK.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-29-2007, 02:18 PM
I happen to agree with TRF on this one. I like EZ and think he will be a solid starter and very soon, some need to remember the defense he was working with last year. The one start in Arizona alone his defense committed like 3 errors, that in itself would cause a young pitcher to take a different approach for who knows how long.

He may have to add some movement to his fastball, but what else does he need to improve? he throws a good change and his curveball has tight break to it. From where I sit anything else he needs to work on would come from just pitching in the Majors and getting that experience under his belt. I.E. Composure, endurance, knowledge of the hitters etc.

Again as has been stated I don't expect him to be a superstar but he can definitely be a solid member of our rotation.

As far as Saarloos goes, I will reserve judgement until I have seen him pitch a few games (once hitters get there timing down). I agree his HR rate last year wasn't good and he is coming to a division with some smaller parks, however his competition likely won't be as tough either and he won't have to face a DH 2-3 times a game.

Saarloos is in the same type of situation as Arroyo, so who better to learn from. If he can learn to set up his offspeed stuff with the high fastball like Bronson does, naybe he could improve the K rate. The game against Arizona was a joke. There was only 3 errors, but 7 runs scored with 1 earned run. It was games like that one that I feel ran Lopez out of town. No amount of offense can make up for a bad shortstop.

Redsland
01-29-2007, 02:56 PM
Not sure...why it would also be "bad" for EZ to start in Louisville and continue his progression and mastery of secondary pitches - AND work on endurance?
He may be out of options.

According to Jax's site, Ramierez was optioned in '04 and '05. I also remember him being optioned to Dayton last year to make a start before ultimately ending up on the DL.

So, he may not be able to go to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

dfs
01-29-2007, 03:34 PM
He may be out of options.

According to Jax's site, Ramierez was optioned in '04 and '05. I also remember him being optioned to Dayton last year to make a start before ultimately ending up on the DL.

So, he may not be able to go to the minors without being exposed to waivers.
He was sent to Louisville where he threw a couple pitches and pronounced himself hurt.{EDIT} Of course, Doc's concurred that he really was hurt. The question with the Lizard last year is if he really was hurt and noticed it there, or if the injury happend before. The question about the Lizard this year is if he is healed.{\Edit}

The Lizard is out of options. He's on the big club or he goes through waivers.

UK Reds Fan
01-29-2007, 04:20 PM
Is there a pre-determined conclusion that Sarloos is here and thusly kicks EZ out of the rotation?

We have Harang, Arroyo at the top.

Then we have Lohse, Milton, EZ and now Sarloos to battle out the remaining 3 spots. Bailey can also be in that mix, but we can also assume, he'll start in AAA and work into rotation by AS break.

We also can conclude Milton is easily likely to be terrible and/or will need some DL time. EZ is still trying to build up endurance and is coming off injury. And all of this assumes Harang and Arroyo start every 5th day.

I think it is a great idea to add another #4 or #5 guy (could end up being #3 on this staff) in Sarloos and also have EZ in the rotation.

Benihana
01-30-2007, 02:45 PM
Billy Beane coaxed a very nice year out of Mike Neu in 2003 after taking Mike from Cincinnati in the 2002 Rule V draft.

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it.

Yes and the Reds have coaxed some very nice numbers out of Aaron Harang, after taking the "once-phenom yet disappointing" Harang from Oakland at the 2003 trade deadline. Sound familiar?

flyer85
01-30-2007, 02:51 PM
Billy Beane coaxed a very nice year out of Mike Neu in 2003 after taking Mike from Cincinnati in the 2002 Rule V draft.... wonder where that guy is now?

Reds1
01-30-2007, 02:54 PM
I think this deal is what it is - insurance for Homer. On paper I think he has a chance to be successful and probably will be #5 next year when Milton is gone and then Homer will be here. Who knows.