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View Full Version : What will have to take place for "the trade" to even out?



GOREDSGO32
01-28-2007, 09:07 PM
Say Kearns and Lopez continue with their career numbers, barring injury (I don't know why you would wanna root for a guy to get injured though so the trade turns out to look better for your team), what would Bray, Majeski, and the minor leaguers brought in have to accomplish to make this trade look close to even? I would think if Bray and Majekski get great numbers in their time here as long relievers, say around 3 ERA or under, it would be a very beneficial trade on our part. I have no idea what our minor leaguers are we got out of the deal are, I don't think they were impact players, but if any of those pan out to be decent major leaguers, in addition, that would make the trade seem pretty darn good looking.

TRF
01-28-2007, 09:17 PM
Harris and Clayton are out of the equation. Majewski will never be anything more than an average reliever. Bray could be special. maybe.

So in order for this trade to even out, Daryl Thompson needs to be healthy.

And freaking spectacular.

edabbs44
01-28-2007, 09:32 PM
I think it's going to be nearly impossible.

GOREDSGO32
01-28-2007, 10:04 PM
Who was Harris, and he's already gone? And who is this Darryl Thompson guy?

dunner13
01-28-2007, 10:23 PM
Bray becomes a closer, hes a lefty so lets say he magically turns into billy wagner. Magewski comes back as one of the better set up men in baseball. And darryl thompson makes the big leagues as a solid #3. That would make me happy.

Will M
01-28-2007, 10:26 PM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

Danny Serafini
01-28-2007, 10:32 PM
Who was Harris, and he's already gone? And who is this Darryl Thompson guy?

Brendan Harris, an infielder who got sent to Tampa Bay recently for a player to be named. Thompson is a single A pitcher who apparently was a good prospect but was coming off an injury, he didn't pitch much last year.

noskill27
01-28-2007, 10:40 PM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

I'm in agreement. Lopez has to be one of most overrated Reds of recent times...

marcshoe
01-28-2007, 10:46 PM
Time travel.

Sean_CaseyRules
01-29-2007, 08:02 AM
I'm in agreement. Lopez has to be one of most overrated Reds of recent times...

I'm also with this, I do not see anything that he should be a big loss, but I do remember when he used to get dogged on here because he couldn't field or throw accurately! He has speed, but other than that?

edabbs44
01-29-2007, 08:27 AM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

Except Gonzalez didn't come over in the trade. True the trade opened up cash, but Lopez could have been dealt for a useful part and WK still could have gotten Gonzalez. That's like Dunn getting traded for Jaret Wright and then using the savings to sign a really good starter. Still could have got more for Dunn, but the net result is a push.

PS: I cannot wait for the board to get a whiff of Gonzo's OBP...you'll be able to turn that equation around by June.

MartyFan
01-29-2007, 08:32 AM
For "The Trade" to work out...Majic needs to be a solid middle relief pitcher...not spectacular but average.

Bray needs to be a "GOOD" setup guy with the ability to come in and close.

The fact that Special K was ahead of the market on the off season insanity to bring more arms for Lopez who when he is focused can bat and has speed but cannot field the routine play to save his soul and Kearns who was not going to be anything special here because he "didn't get it" and didn't have the sense to "get it."

Same with Wags...

I still like "THE TRADE" at least at this point...we'll see how it works out.

flyer85
01-29-2007, 09:10 AM
Honestly, the trade failed to accomplish it's main purpose which was to solidify the pen and get the team to the playoffs,

For any hope of redemption both must become very solid relievers, Bray a very good setup man or closer and Majewski a quality middle reliever who eats a lot of innings.

RedsManRick
01-29-2007, 09:20 AM
I think you do have to consider money saved (and spent) due to freed up salary. While there's a theoretical ability for that money to have been spent anyways, the fact is that it wouldn't have been.

I'd say we need Bray to be a solid closer, Majewski to become a solid relief man, and for Thompson to become a major league something. Add in A-Gone and Stanton for their money and we did (possibly) fill a lot of holes. My bigger concern is that Kearns continues to improve over the next 2-3 years and turns in to an all-star.

Johnny Footstool
01-29-2007, 09:49 AM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

Any facts to back it up that opinion?

Not to rehash the old arguments, but making pronouncements that Player A is better than Player B is pointless unless you can back it up with some evidence.

bucksfan2
01-29-2007, 10:08 AM
In my opinion for this trade to work Maj has to become a good middle reliever. He needs to be reliable when run out there. Bray needs to become either a top notch set up guy or a closer. If Harris nets us the ability to keep and develop Hamilton in the minors than maybe the trade looks even better. One problem in my mind that still remains from that trade is that you traded away two of your most valuable trading chips in the years to come.

RedEye
01-29-2007, 10:46 AM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

Are we analyzing the trade or not? If so, players not included in the trade can not be included in the analysis.

We've already lost the trade short term. BIG TIME. Lopez and Kearns by themselves will make sure we lose it long term as well... not to mention Ryan "decent ML reliever" Wagner.

TRF
01-29-2007, 11:15 AM
We are already ahead.

Gonzalez > Lopez

Bray, Majik > Kearns

Or...

Phillips SS, Lopez 2B > Gonzales SS Phillips 2B

And Kearns, Wagner > Majik, Bray, Thompson.

Then deal Kearns in the off season for a real haul.

westofyou
01-29-2007, 11:16 AM
Then deal Kearns in the off season for a real haul.

The Kevin Mench approach eh?

durl
01-29-2007, 11:39 AM
If Bray turns out to be an excellent set-up guy, it's a great trade. If Maj is an average reliever, it's icing on the cake to me. Lopez was dispensible, in my opinion. Even more so when his hitting took a drop. 28 errors from a starting shortstop is just unacceptable. In the long-term (which is how we have to look at most trades) getting Gonzalez could end making "the trade" even better for the Reds.

HokieRed
01-29-2007, 12:06 PM
To turn this around, I'd say the trade for Washington depends very much on the long-term signability of Kearns and Lopez. If they're gone from D.C. in a year or two, does that make the deal look better for us?

TRF
01-29-2007, 12:23 PM
To turn this around, I'd say the trade for Washington depends very much on the long-term signability of Kearns and Lopez. If they're gone from D.C. in a year or two, does that make the deal look better for us?

Or what they can deal them for. That's a consideration too.

forfreelin04
01-29-2007, 12:25 PM
To turn this around, I'd say the trade for Washington depends very much on the long-term signability of Kearns and Lopez. If they're gone from D.C. in a year or two, does that make the deal look better for us?

I don't think so because I could see both of them having greater success in hitters ballparks. Lopez I think will always be an average Major Leaguer and put up Royce Clayton like numbers during his career. Thats of course if you consider Royce to be an average Major Leaguer. HAHA.

However, I think the key is Kearns. Kearns' problems are more internal and fundamental then anything. At one point, he was the toast of the town and was supposed to be a perennial All Star for years to come. If this happens, I see Wayne eating crow. However, Deno could prove to be the same. He's cheaper and more versatile in the outfield. Not mention, he has better speed. (if you like that sort of thing)

The key to Austin and I think TeamClark has mentioned this on several occasions is his attitude. He always struck me as a guy that blossomed early and felt everything would fall into place thenceforward. Also, I think the problem Wayne had with Kearns was his lack of adjustment at the plate. How many times did you see Austin go down swinging with a steady diet of inside fastballs and sliders? I'm no insider but I am guessing Chambliss tried to fix his stance and handling of the bat numerous times, but to no avail. He holds the bat clear down on the handle, which causes him to be vulnerable to inside pitches. This might be fine for guys with Gary Sheffield like bat speed, but not for Kearns. Not to mention, he swung a large stick. How many times did you see Austin take ugly swing after ugly swing. He continued to fail to make adjustments.
He, like Larue and Wily Mo were very streaky hitters. In a sense, they were feast or famine. Dunn is the same, but he makes up for it with his ability to get on base. As you now know, Kearns, Larue, and Wily Mo are now gone. Perhaps, Wayne wants more consistency instead of feast or famine. Well perhaps is a bad word, it is obvious he wants more consistency from his offense. However, sticking with consistency is only conducive to winning if the pitching is above average, that is the key to the Reds successes next season. I highly doubt we will see many 11-10 games from the Reds this year, probably more 10-1!

Will M
01-29-2007, 01:49 PM
Are we analyzing the trade or not? If so, players not included in the trade can not be included in the analysis.

We've already lost the trade short term. BIG TIME. Lopez and Kearns by themselves will make sure we lose it long term as well... not to mention Ryan "decent ML reliever" Wagner.

I disagree. The trade also involved shedding us of Lopez & Kearns's rising salaries ( ~8,000,000 in 2007 ). Some of that money went to sign Gonzo.

5ToolPlaya
01-29-2007, 02:02 PM
If the Reds make the playoffs in '07 or '08, they got the better deal.

edabbs44
01-29-2007, 02:18 PM
I disagree. The trade also involved shedding us of Lopez & Kearns's rising salaries ( ~8,000,000 in 2007 ). Some of that money went to sign Gonzo.

Sign Gonzo? Thank God...he'll be a savior this season.:rolleyes:

durl
01-29-2007, 02:34 PM
Sign Gonzo? Thank God...he'll be a savior this season.:rolleyes:

If he can potentially cut the number of errors at shortstop by more than half over last year (which won't be hard), he could be much more valuable than some realize now.

noskill27
01-29-2007, 02:35 PM
If he can potentially cut the number of errors at shortstop by more than half over last year (which won't be hard), he could be much more valuable than some realize now.

It'll be nice having a Reds shortstop HELP pitchers instead of HURTING them for a change...

Ltlabner
01-29-2007, 02:48 PM
Sign Gonzo? Thank God...he'll be a savior this season.:rolleyes:

I know we've discussed it before edabbs, but I really don't understand your total discounting of defense. The entire worth of a ballplayer can not be boiled down into OBP. 1/2 the time he's on the field he has to catch and throw the ball. The ability to prevent outs, and the most critical out-producing position has value, especially to a team that has had plenty of big hitting, poor defending players in the past.

Will M
01-29-2007, 02:49 PM
Gonzo is a major league shortstop.
He plays gold glove defense.
He'll hit .250 with 10+ homers.

Lopez is not a major league shortstop.

M2
01-29-2007, 02:51 PM
To even out?

Let's see, the Reds quite possibly lost the division in 2006 thanks to the trade and their trade flexibility this offseason took a major blow. Essentially you've got to adjust for what Kearns and Lopez (two guys who currently play at an extremely attractive price) could have fetched otherwise.

So, to offset that I'd say Bray needs to become a quality closer for a few years and Majewski needs to be a quality middle man for a few years (80+ IP, sub-3.50 ERA). That still probably doesn't even it out, unless Bray takes a studly turn, but it at least drags the deal back to being a palatable net loss. Though Bray didn't flash closer potential last year and Majewski suffered an extremely predictable comeuppance. So the more likely target is probably getting some salvage out of the deal - Bray as a competent lefty set up man and Majewski as a league average innings eater.

Redsland
01-29-2007, 02:52 PM
The trade also involved shedding us of Lopez & Kearns's rising salaries ( ~8,000,000 in 2007 ).
So now instead of paying Lopez and Kearns $8 million, we get to spend $400k each on Majewski and Bray, another $3.5 million to our new shortstop, another $1.5 million for Freel to patrol right field, and another $400k for Deno to back him up.

That's $6.2 million. So you're saying The Trade was a good thing because it saved $1.8 million? Heck, I could have saved us more than that by not signing Mike Stanton.

M2
01-29-2007, 02:59 PM
Where was it written in stone that FeLo has to play SS? The Nats certainly didn't get that memo.

As for the salaries, I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't root for budgets, I root for a baseball team. So when the Reds essentially give away two productive and affordable (especially in the current market) players, I'm not going to be overly enthusiastic about it. That goes double when the savings get passed along to the likes of Jeff Conine and Mike Stanton.

pedro
01-29-2007, 03:04 PM
I'm not convinced Lopez will be a passable second baseman either. Anywhere else and he just doesn't hit enough.

M2
01-29-2007, 03:16 PM
I'm not convinced Lopez will be a passable second baseman either. Anywhere else and he just doesn't hit enough.

My take is that if you can get on base 36% of the time with speed and some occasional pop (and Felipe will slug in the .400s most every year) then you hit plenty. We're essentially talking about a player who's going to OPS .775-.825 most seasons. SS, 2B, 3B, CF, LF, RF, even 1B (Felipe's got more stick than Scott Hatteberg and probably Sean Casey too). Where to play a capable bat is a nice problem to have.

TRF
01-29-2007, 03:20 PM
And it isn't just speed. He's got pretty good instincts on the basepaths, and is being taught the art of the steal by a guy that had a great career SB% (Larkin)

So, being on base 36% of the time and tacking on 40 steals?

He never should have been traded, he should have switched positions.

noskill27
01-29-2007, 03:24 PM
So now instead of paying Lopez and Kearns $8 million, we get to spend $400k each on Majewski and Bray, another $3.5 million to our new shortstop, another $1.5 million for Freel to patrol right field, and another $400k for Deno to back him up.

That's $6.2 million. So you're saying The Trade was a good thing because it saved $1.8 million? Heck, I could have saved us more than that by not signing Mike Stanton.

Regardless if they traded Kearns and Lopez or not, the Reds still would've had to pay Freel and Deno.

Redsland
01-29-2007, 05:34 PM
Regardless if they traded Kearns and Lopez or not, the Reds still would've had to pay Freel and Deno.
Why? Is there some reason why neither could have been traded? Or both?

If our roster had Dunn and Griffey and Kearns and Freel and Denorfia on it, then I'd say we were pretty flush with outfielders. Why, a situation like that almost begs to be addressed. Like for example by trading away from an area of strength to shore up an area of need.

Not that the Reds have any of those. They were already addressed in The Trade, or so I'm told.

Natty Redlocks
01-29-2007, 06:24 PM
So now instead of paying Lopez and Kearns $8 million, we get to spend $400k each on Majewski and Bray, another $3.5 million to our new shortstop, another $1.5 million for Freel to patrol right field, and another $400k for Deno to back him up.

That's $6.2 million. So you're saying The Trade was a good thing because it saved $1.8 million? Heck, I could have saved us more than that by not signing Mike Stanton.

Imagine how much they'd have spent on relievers if they didn't have Bray and Majewski.

noskill27
01-29-2007, 06:44 PM
Why? Is there some reason why neither could have been traded? Or both?

If our roster had Dunn and Griffey and Kearns and Freel and Denorfia on it, then I'd say we were pretty flush with outfielders. Why, a situation like that almost begs to be addressed. Like for example by trading away from an area of strength to shore up an area of need.

Not that the Reds have any of those. They were already addressed in The Trade, or so I'm told.

The point is that we saved a lot more then $1.8 million. The $8 million for Kearns and Lopez was replaced by $800 K on Bray and Majewski. Freel and Denorfia were already here. We didn't used any of the money we saved on them. We did spen $3.5 million of the money we saved on Gonzalez, but that is offset somewhat by the fact we didn't have to go out and get any more $2 million relievers in free agency because we have the cheap Bray and Majewski.

RedEye
01-29-2007, 07:21 PM
I disagree. The trade also involved shedding us of Lopez & Kearns's rising salaries ( ~8,000,000 in 2007 ). Some of that money went to sign Gonzo.

Gimme a break. IMO, if you are going to add in later financial moves, you might as well bring in every other deal the Reds made with 'some of' the money the supposedly saved (Cormier? Hatteberg's extension? Josh Hamilton?). With that logic, you could just pick and choose whatever later deal you wanted in order to rationalize what is, beyond a doubt, one of the worst moves made in MLB last season.

The only SS that should be factored into analysis of 'the trade' are Royce Clayton and Felipe Lopez. Gonzo wasn't even a glimmer in Wayne's eye when he overruled his experienced assistants and authorized trading two 26 year-olds for a bag of whatifs. He said so himself at the time: "I don't care about next year." Well, here we are almost to next year, and that lack of care is showing up all over the place.

I'm ready to move on from 'the trade'--yes I am... but I'll keep posting this opinion until other people stop returning to it and trying to save face for Krivsky. It is, quite simply, an indefensible move UNLESS Daryl Thompson becomes the next Francisco Liriano. Period.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-29-2007, 07:29 PM
Nothing has to have happened, it already has. We got rid of 2 slackers. One with a injury/weight problem that will never live up to his potential, and a shortstop that can't play the field. They both are now going to be overpaid and luckily it's not us writing the checks.

AdamDunn
01-29-2007, 07:33 PM
Given, the current market for relief pitching, Majewski and Bray to be a solid middle relief for all their arbitration years. Lopez doesn't all of a sudden become a solid defensive shortstop and Kearns and Wagner don't become superstars. That's all. I also still like the trade.

GOREDSGO32
01-29-2007, 07:40 PM
I don't see why people list the salary saved as a benefit. It would be a good trade if it was an untradable player with high salary, but these were not salary dump players, they could have been traded for more, especially in the offseason. It's like someone selling you a brand new Mercedes Benz for $5,000, and you are paying off the $5,000 and then go and trade it for a paid off Ford Focus or something. Hey you saved paying the rest of the $5,000, and don't have to pay the five grand for the Benz, but the opportunity cost you lost there is you could have found plenty of takers that would pay $5,000 for the Benz and would have given you a lot to take that on. Not to say Kearns and Lopez are the equivalent of a Benz, but the only point is, that salary wasn't an issue - they were low cost high return players compared to other guys in the market and the Reds could have definately got something for them better than that.

Bottom line: Kearns and Lopez could have drawn better players in the same position the Reds wanted. Reds could have got two solid, proven relievers in the place of an unproven rookie reliever and an average to below average reliever.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
01-29-2007, 08:25 PM
I don't see why people list the salary saved as a benefit. It would be a good trade if it was an untradable player with high salary, but these were not salary dump players, they could have been traded for more, especially in the offseason. It's like someone selling you a brand new Mercedes Benz for $5,000, and you are paying off the $5,000 and then go and trade it for a paid off Ford Focus or something. Hey you saved paying the rest of the $5,000, and don't have to pay the five grand for the Benz, but the opportunity cost you lost there is you could have found plenty of takers that would pay $5,000 for the Benz and would have given you a lot to take that on. Not to say Kearns and Lopez are the equivalent of a Benz, but the only point is, that salary wasn't an issue - they were low cost high return players compared to other guys in the market and the Reds could have definately got something for them better than that.

Bottom line: Kearns and Lopez could have drawn better players in the same position the Reds wanted. Reds could have got two solid, proven relievers in the place of an unproven rookie reliever and an average to below average reliever.

The only mistake Wayne made in this trade is the failure to get the proper medical info on Majic. If he had been healthy we wouldn't be talking about this still.

RedEye
01-30-2007, 12:54 AM
The only mistake Wayne made in this trade is the failure to get the proper medical info on Majic. If he had been healthy we wouldn't be talking about this still.

You are insane. Majik was a borderline quality reliever before he got injured. Bray is a questionable prospect. We traded another questionable prospect for him, so that part of the trade is almost a wash IMO.

We have anecdotal evidence for the 'slackerhood' of Austin and Felipe. Anecdotal evidence at best. Felipe may have had defensive shortcomings but he was an All-Star in 2005. Good hitting middle infielders don't grow on trees. I don't believe anyone ever questioned his work ethic--but his neck tattoo and fashion sense may have made some people (fans who have absolutely no real connection to the team) think his priorities weren't in line. Austin had trouble overcoming a few injuries, but he was putting together a well-above average season and playing solid outfield at the time of the trade.

As I said, I'm ready to move on. But we have to stop trying to rationalize this trade. Wayne went all in for 2006, and I respect that in a way. But he bet with the wrong hand and lost--and we all saw it coming a mile away. Now we're paying the price.

Let's stop trying to pretend we won this, folks. We just didn't.

Patpacillosjock
01-30-2007, 12:57 AM
You are insane. Majik was a borderline quality reliever before he got injured. Bray is a questionable prospect. We traded another questionable prospect for him, so that part of the trade is almost a wash IMO.

We have anecdotal evidence for the 'slackerhood' of Austin and Felipe. Anecdotal evidence at best. Felipe may have had defensive shortcomings but he was an All-Star in 2005. Good hitting middle infielders don't grow on trees. I don't believe anyone ever questioned his work ethic--but his neck tattoo and fashion sense may have made some people (fans who have absolutely no real connection to the team) think his priorities weren't in line. Austin had trouble overcoming a few injuries, but he was putting together a well-above average season and playing solid outfield at the time of the trade.

As I said, I'm ready to move on. But we have to stop trying to rationalize this trade. Wayne went all in for 2006, and I respect that in a way. But he bet with the wrong hand and lost--and we all saw it coming a mile away. Now we're paying the price.

Let's stop trying to pretend we won this, folks. We just didn't.

this is by far the most intelligent, logical post anybody could have on this. WK gambled and lost. End of story. HE LOST people. now he's trying to gamble again with a much shorter stack this year and just nickle and diming his way back to respectibility.

M2
01-30-2007, 01:06 AM
The only mistake Wayne made in this trade is the failure to get the proper medical info on Majic. If he had been healthy we wouldn't be talking about this still.

Majewski's a high-contact reliever, always will be. Doesn't matter how healthy he is or isn't, you don't bank on a guy like that.

And Bray wasn't ready last season either. In fact, he made the chances of him ever being a plus closer seem real remote.

The deal failed in terms of 2006. These guys weren't needed for the bullpen to turn around and the offense went south after the trade. So it gets talked about.

The Reds haven't struck on much of anything in the winter trade market when Lopez and Kearns would have been far more attractive options than some of the bums who got fat contracts. So it gets talked about.

The team really hasn't done anything to reinvent itself since the deal. It added Gonzalez's glove, but the starting pitching is still two men deep, the bullpen is still shaky and the team looks to have a *****cat offense. So it gets talked about.

The deal failed the team for reasons stretching far beyond Majewski's healthy. It's failing the team at this very moment because Bray and Majewski are just about worthless on the trade market and the future of the deal pretty much rests on the dubious chances of Bray becoming a quality closer. The past has already happened, the present situation is just sad and the future looks shaky. Probably the chief benefit to the Reds is that, hopefully, Wayne Krivsky has learned to never do anything like it ever again.

Ron Madden
01-30-2007, 01:52 AM
You are insane. Majik was a borderline quality reliever before he got injured. Bray is a questionable prospect. We traded another questionable prospect for him, so that part of the trade is almost a wash IMO.

We have anecdotal evidence for the 'slackerhood' of Austin and Felipe. Anecdotal evidence at best. Felipe may have had defensive shortcomings but he was an All-Star in 2005. Good hitting middle infielders don't grow on trees. I don't believe anyone ever questioned his work ethic--but his neck tattoo and fashion sense may have made some people (fans who have absolutely no real connection to the team) think his priorities weren't in line. Austin had trouble overcoming a few injuries, but he was putting together a well-above average season and playing solid outfield at the time of the trade.

As I said, I'm ready to move on. But we have to stop trying to rationalize this trade. Wayne went all in for 2006, and I respect that in a way. But he bet with the wrong hand and lost--and we all saw it coming a mile away. Now we're paying the price.

Let's stop trying to pretend we won this, folks. We just didn't.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

pedro
01-30-2007, 01:56 AM
My take is that if you can get on base 36% of the time with speed and some occasional pop (and Felipe will slug in the .400s most every year) then you hit plenty. We're essentially talking about a player who's going to OPS .775-.825 most seasons. SS, 2B, 3B, CF, LF, RF, even 1B (Felipe's got more stick than Scott Hatteberg and probably Sean Casey too). Where to play a capable bat is a nice problem to have.

I'm not sold he'd slug enough for the corners, but yeah if you can consistently OBP 360 w/ speed there probably should be a place for you in most lineups.

I'm not sure he wouldn't be better served to stop switch hitting too.

Defensively, I'm not sold that he goes to his right well enough to play 2B either. We'll see.

Redhook
01-30-2007, 08:42 AM
Gimme a break. IMO, if you are going to add in later financial moves, you might as well bring in every other deal the Reds made with 'some of' the money the supposedly saved (Cormier? Hatteberg's extension? Josh Hamilton?). With that logic, you could just pick and choose whatever later deal you wanted in order to rationalize what is, beyond a doubt, one of the worst moves made in MLB last season.

The only SS that should be factored into analysis of 'the trade' are Royce Clayton and Felipe Lopez. Gonzo wasn't even a glimmer in Wayne's eye when he overruled his experienced assistants and authorized trading two 26 year-olds for a bag of whatifs. He said so himself at the time: "I don't care about next year." Well, here we are almost to next year, and that lack of care is showing up all over the place.

I'm ready to move on from 'the trade'--yes I am... but I'll keep posting this opinion until other people stop returning to it and trying to save face for Krivsky. It is, quite simply, an indefensible move UNLESS Daryl Thompson becomes the next Francisco Liriano. Period.

Yes.


You are insane. Majik was a borderline quality reliever before he got injured. Bray is a questionable prospect. We traded another questionable prospect for him, so that part of the trade is almost a wash IMO.

We have anecdotal evidence for the 'slackerhood' of Austin and Felipe. Anecdotal evidence at best. Felipe may have had defensive shortcomings but he was an All-Star in 2005. Good hitting middle infielders don't grow on trees. I don't believe anyone ever questioned his work ethic--but his neck tattoo and fashion sense may have made some people (fans who have absolutely no real connection to the team) think his priorities weren't in line. Austin had trouble overcoming a few injuries, but he was putting together a well-above average season and playing solid outfield at the time of the trade.

As I said, I'm ready to move on. But we have to stop trying to rationalize this trade. Wayne went all in for 2006, and I respect that in a way. But he bet with the wrong hand and lost--and we all saw it coming a mile away. Now we're paying the price.

Let's stop trying to pretend we won this, folks. We just didn't.

Double yes.



The deal failed the team for reasons stretching far beyond Majewski's healthy. It's failing the team at this very moment because Bray and Majewski are just about worthless on the trade market and the future of the deal pretty much rests on the dubious chances of Bray becoming a quality closer. The past has already happened, the present situation is just sad and the future looks shaky. Probably the chief benefit to the Reds is that, hopefully, Wayne Krivsky has learned to never do anything like it ever again.

Triple yes.

3 great posts!!:clap:

bucksfan2
01-30-2007, 10:44 AM
Bottom line: Kearns and Lopez could have drawn better players in the same position the Reds wanted. Reds could have got two solid, proven relievers in the place of an unproven rookie reliever and an average to below average reliever.

This is my key. They could have fetched much more. Krivsky obviously wasn't high on Lopez esp at SS. Even if he wasn't going to play SS or maybe even 2b I would still rather have him playing 1b than hatty or conine. Krivsky probably pulled the trigger too early and as you can see may never live the trade down.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 11:11 AM
It's failing the team at this very moment because Bray and Majewski are just about worthless on the trade market and the future of the deal pretty much rests on the dubious chances of Bray becoming a quality closer. The past has already happened, the present situation is just sad and the future looks shaky. Probably the chief benefit to the Reds is that, hopefully, Wayne Krivsky has learned to never do anything like it ever again.sometimes the truth is just a real kick in the groin.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 11:14 AM
this is by far the most intelligent, logical post anybody could have on this. WK gambled and lost. End of story. HE LOST people. now he's trying to gamble again with a much shorter stack this year and just nickle and diming his way back to respectibility.the sad part is he likely would have been able to deal Lopez and especially Kearns for something worthwhile(instead of for middle relievers who don't miss bats) if he had waited until the off-season. :help:

Redsland
01-30-2007, 11:14 AM
We did spen $3.5 million of the money we saved on Gonzalez, but that is offset somewhat by the fact we didn't have to go out and get any more $2 million relievers in free agency because we have the cheap Bray and Majewski.
No? That's odd, because since the trade, Wayne has:

Extended free-agent-to-be Rheal Cormier for $2.25 million
Signed free agent David Weathers for $2.5 million
Signed free agent Mike Stanton for $2 million

It sure looks to me like Wayne went out and got himself some "$2 million relievers in free agency," as you put it. He even traded for swingman Kirk Saarloos, plucked Jared Burton in the Rule 5 Draft, and claimed Bobby Livingston off waivers. Those are the actions of a man who thinks he needs bullpen help, despite the presence of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 11:17 AM
It sure looks to me like Wayne went out and got himself some "$2 million relievers in free agency," as you put it. He even traded for swingman Kirk Saarloos, plucked Jared Burton in the Rule 5 Draft, and claimed Bobby Livingston off waivers. Those are the actions of a man who thinks he needs bullpen help, despite the presence of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.they are the actions of a man not counting on either Majewski or Bray to be part of the solution in 2007.

TRF
01-30-2007, 11:17 AM
No? That's odd, because since the trade, Wayne has:

Extended free-agent-to-be Rheal Cormier for $2.25 million
Signed free agent David Weathers for $2.5 million
Signed free agent Mike Stanton for $2 million

It sure looks to me like Wayne went out and got himself some "$2 million relievers in free agency," as you put it. He even traded for swingman Kirk Saarloos, plucked Jared Burton in the Rule 5 Draft, and claimed Bobby Livingston off waivers. Those are the actions of a man who thinks he needs bullpen help, because of the presence of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.

fixed that for ya. :laugh:

RANDY IN INDY
01-30-2007, 12:13 PM
No? That's odd, because since the trade, Wayne has:

Extended free-agent-to-be Rheal Cormier for $2.25 million
Signed free agent David Weathers for $2.5 million
Signed free agent Mike Stanton for $2 million

It sure looks to me like Wayne went out and got himself some "$2 million relievers in free agency," as you put it. He even traded for swingman Kirk Saarloos, plucked Jared Burton in the Rule 5 Draft, and claimed Bobby Livingston off waivers. Those are the actions of a man who thinks he needs bullpen help, despite the presence of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.

Some of those relievers could also be some nice chips to flip at the trade deadline.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 12:17 PM
some of those relievers are likely nothing more than nice cow chips to flip on the fire. :evil:

RANDY IN INDY
01-30-2007, 12:18 PM
You a cowchip expert?;)

flyer85
01-30-2007, 12:25 PM
You a cowchip expert?;)I know something from Shinola. And Stanton and Cormier are not Shinola.

50% PECOTA projections

Stantion 6.09ERA 1.72WHIP 65% Collapse .88 beta
Cormier 5.69ERA 1.63WHIP 65% Collapse .66 beta

The odds of either one of these guys being any good at all are in the 10-15% range.

BTW on their weighted mean, Stanton has a stuff rating of -13 and Cormier of -23.

noskill27
01-30-2007, 01:04 PM
No? That's odd, because since the trade, Wayne has:

Extended free-agent-to-be Rheal Cormier for $2.25 million
Signed free agent David Weathers for $2.5 million
Signed free agent Mike Stanton for $2 million

It sure looks to me like Wayne went out and got himself some "$2 million relievers in free agency," as you put it. He even traded for swingman Kirk Saarloos, plucked Jared Burton in the Rule 5 Draft, and claimed Bobby Livingston off waivers. Those are the actions of a man who thinks he needs bullpen help, despite the presence of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.

Exactly my point. If he went out and got those with Bray and Majewski, what would he have done without them? The bullpen would be nothing but 37+ years olds making $2-3 million each.

RANDY IN INDY
01-30-2007, 01:06 PM
I know something from Shinola.:laugh:

Maybe if he collects enough cow chips, one of 'em will be fresh enough to stick to the wall.:laugh: Some of these guys are getting a long way from fresh, I'll agree on that.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 01:10 PM
Some of these guys are getting a long way from fresh, I'll agree on that.They are exactly the wrong kind of players to be taking chances on because there is NO upside in terms of performance.

RANDY IN INDY
01-30-2007, 01:11 PM
They are exactly the wrong kind of players to be taking chances on because there is NO upside in terms of performance.

I pretty much agree with that.:beerme:

M2
01-30-2007, 01:17 PM
Exactly my point. If he went out and got those with Bray and Majewski, what would he have done without them? The bullpen would be nothing but 37+ years olds making $2-3 million each.

And Todd Coffey and Matt Belisle and potentially guys like Brad Salmon and Jonathan Coutlangus.

Though it really doesn't matter how old Majewski and Bray are if they don't pitch well. In a good bullpen, Majewski is at his best a #4 reliever. Bray could be better or he could be undone by gopheballitis.

And they didn't pitch well last season for the Reds. What would the Reds have done without them? Turn to the same guys the team turned to anyway when Bray and Majewski didn't get the job done.

flyer85
01-30-2007, 01:21 PM
The problem I see is that the Reds are still stuck in the try to win now while buidling for the future mode. It is a losing proposition. It causes a team to give innings to washed up old guys like Cormier, Weathers and Stanton when they could be using it to figure out who should be developed for the future. And those "developmental" projects are likely to pitch better than the old stiffs making 10 times as much anyway.

WMR
01-30-2007, 02:44 PM
Trying to justify the trade through "dollars saved" by jettisoning Kearns and Lopez is horrible logic. Their salaries could have been moved in a plethora of ways more beneficial to the Reds if that was one of their goals.

Hmmm... Lopez won't hit enough to play second base but B. Phil will?

B. Phil at SS and Lopez at 2nd is superior to Gonzo and B. Phil every day of the week.

Gonzo's OBP is puke.

Johnny Footstool
01-30-2007, 02:49 PM
And Todd Coffey and Matt Belisle and potentially guys like Brad Salmon and Jonathan Coutlangus.

Though it really doesn't matter how old Majewski and Bray are if they don't pitch well. In a good bullpen, Majewski is at his best a #4 reliever. Bray could be better or he could be undone by gopheballitis.

And they didn't pitch well last season for the Reds. What would the Reds have done without them? Turn to the same guys the team turned to anyway when Bray and Majewski didn't get the job done.

Or maybe they would have gone out and got some guys who could be counted on to pitch meaningful innings -- Bob Wickman (26 IP, 18 SV, 25 K, 2 BB, 1.04 ERA closing for the Braves) comes to mind. So does Mike MacDougal (25 IP, 11 HLD, 19 K, 6 BB, 1.80 ERA for the White Sox). Both were available last season and were stellar for their new teams in the playoff races.

noskill27
01-31-2007, 05:41 PM
Hmmm... Lopez won't hit enough to play second base but B. Phil will?

Consider that with Phillips you get the bat AND the glove... we don't know how Lopez will adjust to 2nd. The only place I'd let him play is the outfield and we're all set there.

WMR
01-31-2007, 06:06 PM
Consider that with Phillips you get the bat AND the glove... we don't know how Lopez will adjust to 2nd. The only place I'd let him play is the outfield and we're all set there.

The chances of Phillips producing offensively anywhere close to what Felipe will give you are remote.

noskill27
01-31-2007, 06:21 PM
The chances of Phillips producing offensively anywhere close to what Felipe will give you are remote.

Well, check their numbers last year:

Phillips... .276 AVG, .324 OBP, .427 SLG, .751 OPS, 28 2B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, 2 CS, 88 K, 587 PA
Lopez.... .274 AVG, .358 OBP, .381 SLG, .739 OPS, 27 2B, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 44 SB, 12 CS, 126 K, 714 PA

Redhook
01-31-2007, 08:36 PM
Well, check their numbers last year:

Phillips... .276 AVG, .324 OBP, .427 SLG, .751 OPS, 28 2B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, 2 CS, 88 K, 587 PA
Lopez.... .274 AVG, .358 OBP, .381 SLG, .739 OPS, 27 2B, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 44 SB, 12 CS, 126 K, 714 PA

Good stat comparison. Overall, Phillips was a better player last year, especially when you consider defense. I do believe Phillips had a career year. If he comes close to that this year I will be very happy. I also believe Lopez had a below average year. Lots of transition for him. I think he'll produce alot more this year with less stolen bases. I still wish we had Lopez and Phillps switching positions over Gonzalez and Phillips. I rather take the risk on the defensive switches over the guarantee of crappy offense.

jojo
01-31-2007, 09:23 PM
Well, check their numbers last year:

Phillips... .276 AVG, .324 OBP, .427 SLG, .751 OPS, 28 2B, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, 2 CS, 88 K, 587 PA
Lopez.... .274 AVG, .358 OBP, .381 SLG, .739 OPS, 27 2B, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 44 SB, 12 CS, 126 K, 714 PA

Here's a couple things to consider when comparing both at second:

First while Phillips' defense was heralded in Cincy last year, there are some compelling metrics to suggest his leather was overvalued by many fans. For instance, PMR to runs indicates he was basically league average defensively (+3). If indeed PMR is a fair representation, then flipping him to short likely wouldn't be the great defensive upgrade proponents of the move believe it would be. That doesn't mean Lopez would be a defensive upgrade at second either. The fielding bible suggests Lopez's biggest weakness is to his right. That of course would be exacerbated at second. An infield of Phillips/Lopez probably wouldn't be that good. An infield of Gonzo/Phillips is superior but mostly because Gonzo is an above average defender.

Now consider a comparison of their bats:

Lopez (projected VORP)
2007: 32
2008: 28
2009: 29
2010: 24
2011: 26
Total: 139 (14 wins)

Phillips (projected VORP)
2007: 18
2008: 13
2009: 15
2010: 15
2011: 14
Total: 75 (approx. 8 wins)

While their relative defensive abilities can be quibbled about, the difference in their offensive potentials is pretty striking. Lopez is clearly projected to be a much better bat even though he plays his home games in a pit while Phillips plays at GABP. If Phillips is truly somewhere around a league average defender, he's basically a marginal player. The biggest advantage Phillips appears to have on Lopez is that Phillips is cheaper.

noskill27
01-31-2007, 09:43 PM
While their relative defensive abilities can be quibbled about, the difference in their offensive potentials is pretty striking. Lopez is clearly projected to be a much better bat even though he plays his home games in a pit while Phillips plays at GABP. If Phillips is truly somewhere around a league average defender, he's basically a marginal player. The biggest advantage Phillips appears to have on Lopez is that Phillips is cheaper.

First, they both had a heck of a lot of AB at GABP in 2006. Second, the question that also needs to be considered is "Was the 2005 Lopez or 2006 Lopez the real Lopez?"

No one can debate that Lopez had a heck of a good year in 2005. 2006 was a whole different story. His power disappeared although he took better advantage of his speed. Which Lopez will show up this year? I'll take the 2005 version any day of the week, but, IMO, the 2006 version didn't do enough offensively to offset the pitiful defense...

durl
02-01-2007, 03:14 PM
Lopez had a good year in 2005, but he didn't have exceptional years prior, did he? 2005 was considered a breakout year, but 2006 put a damper on that thinking.

Correct me if I'm wrong here.