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forfreelin04
02-05-2007, 12:30 PM
School was cancelled today. So I hear I am with all this time on my hands. I was excited about my first day of student teaching, so I decided to put this unused energy to work. Last year and worse in the year preceding, I was an avid Dunn basher. However, after realizing theres more to a baseball game then just watching it, I started to take back these statements. So now I am trying to make up for my ignorance and provide some stats that could prove useful in the future.

The other day, Reds44, advocated for Dunn hitting second for most of next year. I recalled Dunn having some success in that hole, but I figured his success was limited in only a few at bats. However, I do realize that batting order is something that goes overlooked. Playing baseball for as long as I have, certain players just hit better in certain places in the lineup. I could hit the tar off the ball in the second hole, but couldnt hit for nothing leading off. I wondered why this was and in this analysis I attempted to see if Dunn truly found a home at the two spot. My investigation brought up some seriously interesting points. I'd rather not have this thread sprial down into a Dunn bashing, so please refrain but sarcasm is welcome haha.

The question I would like to pose is Dunn better off in the 2 hole, 5 hole, 4th hole, or 3rd hole? Dunn batted some in the 6th hole but the sample size is extremely small and irrelevant I think. I will also remind you that my data was compiled by going through Gameday and apt to be wrong in several areas. However, on the whole, it is correct. I crossreferenced Dunn's various batting positions with Hits, At Bats, K, HR, and BB. I chose these stats since this is what Dunn does the most and what we criticize or praise him for the most too.

Adam Dunn (2006 Season)
AB H BB HR K
2 Hole 108 39 11 6 41
5 Hole 184 37 41 10 63
4-Hole 164 36 32 11 63
3-Hole 67 18 13 9 27

AVG BB/PA HR/AB SO/AB
2 Hole .361 .0924 .055 .379
5 Hole .201 .182 .038 .342
4 Hole .219 .162 .054 .381
3 Hole .268 .162 .134 .402

Well theres the data. Obviously, his September and August statistics were awful. In September, he batted .137 mostly out of the cleanup spot thanks to Griffeys toe. However, I don't know how much of his downward sprial can be attributed to his spot in the batting order or his fatigue. He very rarely had a day off throughout the entire season. An off the cuff speculation is that he just needs a day off every 2 weeks instead of once a month. But like I said that is just speculation.

Back to the data, it is obvious Dunn's strong suit is the 2 hole. His batting average explains so, but if your not into those things he does hit homeruns at the same clip. However, he walked gradually less then in the other spots in the batting order. This could be because he was pitched to more often of course. But when he was pitched too, he surely didn't waste his opportunities. At first collection, I thought because Dunn saw more pitches that he would strike out actually more often. However, he actually struck out pretty much at the same clip as the other batting spots. I think the most glaring problem is that he batted almost below the Mendoza line in the 5th hole. The very spot where Narron batted him the most this past year. He walked more frequently and struck out less, but he hit homers at a slower rate. Walking is all well and good but it is dependent on the hitter behind you. In this case, Dunn would be getting on base for 6, 7 and 8 hitters. Compared to the 3 4 and 5 hitter when he is batted second. However, he walks less in the 2 hole, but does hit for a high average.

An intriguing spot is the 3 hole since it seems to be the best of both worlds, but Dunn only had 67 plate apperances there. These at bats mostly took place when Griffey was on the DL in April and early May.

Finally, I'll leave the data for everyone to discuss. It seems to me that the proper spot in the batting order is the 2 hole. I know many have discussed Hatteberg in there instead with Dunn hitting somewhere 3rd or 4th. One thing is for certain though, Dunn should not be hitting 5th. Not to mention, batting him cleanup isn't the best thing either.

If I had to make a quick stab at the lineup. It would be:

Deno/Freel
Dunn
Edwin
Griffey
Hatteberg/Conine
Phillips
Ross/Vale
Gonzo

Enjoy!

Redsland
02-05-2007, 12:39 PM
Dunn gets on base, so he needs to be near the top of the order.

Dunn gets pitched around when he's down in the order, so he needs to be near the top of the order.

Therefore, I'd hit him second.

Red Leader
02-05-2007, 12:44 PM
I would hope, at some point, Jerry Narron would draw the same conclusion you have about Dunn. Unfortunately, I don't think Jerry reads Redszone. I'm guessing that Dunn starts the year batting fifth behind Jr (in the 3 spot) and Edwin, hitting cleanup.

Thanks for the data.

Danny Serafini
02-05-2007, 12:52 PM
I really dislike Dunn batting second because it wastes his power. Sliding him back to third still gets him a lot of plate appearances, plus he'll have more runners on base when he comes up, since the 9-1-2 batters are going to have a better shot of getting on than the 8-9-1 group. I'd certainly take second over the fifth he's likely to hit, but I'd prefer third over anything else.

durl
02-05-2007, 12:54 PM
Good analysis, forfreelin04. While it seems odd to put a power hitter like Dunn at the #2 spot, he seems to do much better there.

Is it REALLY that odd to have him at #2? People would say you need him further down in the lineup because of his power, but you should put him where he performs best. The Reds had some good hitters at #7 and 8 last year so having power at the top could have been useful.

Red Heeler
02-05-2007, 12:55 PM
The Reds would have a much better lineup with a SS or 2B who could hit lead-off or second. I suppose you could have CoHatte bat second, but it would sure be nice to have someone with a little wheels there. Optimum batting order would have EdE, Dunn, and Griffey in the 3, 4, and 5 spots, respectively.

Red Leader
02-05-2007, 01:02 PM
I like the first four to be:

Freel / Denorfia
Dunn
Edwin
Griffey

I think that's the best lineup. Give Dunn, Edwin as protection and I think he'll be fine. At the same time, give EE, Griff as protection and he should be fine. The problems come after Griffey in the 5 spot. Since you've taken Dunn out of a run producing spot (5) and put him in more of an OB spot (2), you don't have a typical run producing guy at #5. That's what I was hoping the Reds would aquire to take the RH platoon at 1B. We got Conine. I don't think Conine is a #5 hitter anymore.

forfreelin04
02-05-2007, 01:04 PM
I would hope, at some point, Jerry Narron would draw the same conclusion you have about Dunn. Unfortunately, I don't think Jerry reads Redszone. I'm guessing that Dunn starts the year batting fifth behind Jr (in the 3 spot) and Edwin, hitting cleanup.

Thanks for the data.

Ahhh yes the dreaded Lefty, Righty, Lefty. It just bothers me that the proof is in the pudding here. Maybe Jerry thinks Dunn's value still lies in his ability to hit runners in?

It is apparent to me that Dunn like most power hitters is at his best when he catches the pitcher making a mistake. However, if the pitcher doesnt make a mistake, then he falters much more then other players. Seems to me more often then not pitchers are going to not make a mistake, when they are trying their most not to....like in a pressure situation with men on base. Thus, Dunn is probably better served hitting second because theres more liklihood of the pitcher making a mistake.

dougdirt
02-05-2007, 01:06 PM
Dunn needs to be #2 or #3, and no later. His on base percentage goes to waste in other spots, albeit #4 isnt so bad, but Dunn or Edwin need to hit 3rd. Edwin needs to be between Dunn and Griffey, so since we have Narron managing, Dunn will bat 5th behind Edwin and Griffey will hit 3rd.

Johnny Footstool
02-05-2007, 01:10 PM
I really dislike Dunn batting second because it wastes his power. Sliding him back to third still gets him a lot of plate appearances, plus he'll have more runners on base when he comes up, since the 9-1-2 batters are going to have a better shot of getting on than the 8-9-1 group. I'd certainly take second over the fifth he's likely to hit, but I'd prefer third over anything else.

Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?

shredda2000
02-05-2007, 01:16 PM
Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?

I was just thinking the same thing. It seems when Grif went down, Dunn did not have any protection which I believe led to his numbers in September.

forfreelin04
02-05-2007, 01:34 PM
Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?

Just off the cuff here Johnny, but when I was compiling my data it was evident Dunn was reliant on Griffey being in the lineup. In September, when Griffey was out with the dislocated toe, Dunn was at his worst because most of his at bats in the 4th and 5th hole. For the whole month, Dunn was 14 for 102, which translates into a buck 36 batting average. With Griffey gone, he batted 4th 53 times, only managed 1 homerun, 5 hits, and 17 K's. That's a .94 batting average. Of course, this could also be attributed to fatigue.

In contrast, Dunn batted .484 in the 2 hole in front of Griffey before the All Star break. While batting behind Griffey before the All Star Break, Dunn batted .294 in the cleanup spot but only .202 in the 5th hole. Thus, the worst scenario is to have Dunn bat 5th behind Griffey and Edwin.

KronoRed
02-05-2007, 01:38 PM
Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo


This my lineup as well, sadly I doubt we see it for more then 2 games this year.

Superdude
02-05-2007, 01:39 PM
I like him 3rd with Freel/Denorfia and Hatteberg at the top. Anything would be better than batting him 5th though.

UK Reds Fan
02-05-2007, 01:47 PM
Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?

Agreed with that lineup totally. Hatte is actually nearing Dunn in terms of OBP, so I'd hate to put him back at the 5 or 6 hole where he that skill diminishes. Dunn isn't drasticly different vs. Lefty or Righty.

But once again, Griffey's ability to accept hitting 5th and not playing CF will have an impact on this team's performance. We'll see if Narron has the guts to do it and Griffey has the ego to go with what is best for team.

BRM
02-05-2007, 01:51 PM
This my lineup as well, sadly I doubt we see it for more then 2 games this year.

Griffey won't be hitting fifth and I seriously doubt Narron will ever hit Dunn 3rd.

KronoRed
02-05-2007, 01:57 PM
Griffey won't be hitting fifth and I seriously doubt Narron will ever hit Dunn 3rd.

Nah every year when the O goes into a slump Narron tries a lineup that is actually logical, but of course it doesn't work in that one game and it's never seen again.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-05-2007, 01:57 PM
Good post, I would like to see Dunn's number for the last couple years in comparison to the ones from 2006 to see if they also hold true. These paint kind of an odd picture. Dunn hit for his best average in the two hole where he walked about 10% less than at the other spots and also where his k% was equal to or higher than at the other spots. Baseball players have huge mental factors that I like to link to stats like this. When I played ball it was huge for my confidence/ego to hit in the four hole"clean up man" spot in the line-up. I would bet that Dunn was always the man growing up and anyone telling him other wise probably doesn't sit well in the back of his mind even if he doesn't want to admit it. There's a reason why we see guys like Griffey play center and hit cleanup when they are past there prime, Coaches and owners call it deserved due to earned reputation. I call it tip toeing around the ego to avoid a melt down. Imo he hits for a better average in the two hole because of the lack of baserunners. I know it's a stretch but when I play softball if there is a guy on third or on base at all for that matter, I'm more inclined to let er rip and go for the fence, but with the bases empty I'll shorten up a bit and just get on base. To me this is a good sign for Dunn's future, it shows that he may have the ability to hit for a good average if protected properly. EE has yet to really strike fear into opposing pitchers and Griffey was out of the line-up a bit last year, but if you can get those guys firing on all cylinders I think Dunn could easily hit at a 270-280 clip, maybe even better. With that kind of average he's on the NL All Star team for many years to come.

Natty Redlocks
02-05-2007, 01:59 PM
Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo



Me too. Lookit what Ortiz did once he had Manny behind him. I'd love to know how much influence Junior's attitude really has on the lineup.

forfreelin04
02-05-2007, 02:35 PM
Good post, I would like to see Dunn's number for the last couple years in comparison to the ones from 2006 to see if they also hold true. These paint kind of an odd picture. Dunn hit for his best average in the two hole where he walked about 10% less than at the other spots and also where his k% was equal to or higher than at the other spots. Baseball players have huge mental factors that I like to link to stats like this. When I played ball it was huge for my confidence/ego to hit in the four hole"clean up man" spot in the line-up. I would bet that Dunn was always the man growing up and anyone telling him other wise probably doesn't sit well in the back of his mind even if he doesn't want to admit it. There's a reason why we see guys like Griffey play center and hit cleanup when they are past there prime, Coaches and owners call it deserved due to earned reputation. I call it tip toeing around the ego to avoid a melt down. Imo he hits for a better average in the two hole because of the lack of baserunners. I know it's a stretch but when I play softball if there is a guy on third or on base at all for that matter, I'm more inclined to let er rip and go for the fence, but with the bases empty I'll shorten up a bit and just get on base. To me this is a good sign for Dunn's future, it shows that he may have the ability to hit for a good average if protected properly. EE has yet to really strike fear into opposing pitchers and Griffey was out of the line-up a bit last year, but if you can get those guys firing on all cylinders I think Dunn could easily hit at a 270-280 clip, maybe even better. With that kind of average he's on the NL All Star team for many years to come.

I dig your optimism. I would run the 2004 and 2005 numbers, but it'll have to wait until another snow day. I don't actually recall Dunn hitting second very much at all before last year. I do remember Bob Boone hitting him first a couple of times, which was really unorthodox.

Thanks for adding you experience in the cleanup spot to the discussion. Even though it is softball that you were playing, I think your arguement does hold some weight. The clean up hitter is supposed to be the prize RBI man and there is added pressure there when teammates are on base. Not to mention, in this situation, the pitcher is more likely to show a less agressive approach especially with first base open. The best clean up hitters are the ones who can discern the difference between getting pitched around and not getting pitched to at all. (That is not coming very close to the strikezone at all, an unintentional but very much intentional walk) I think alot of times Dunn confuses these scenarios, either by thinking he's being pitched too and swinging at a bad ball or by taking early when hes getting pitched too. Each of these are bad scenarios because like most hitters as the count goes against Dunn the more increased his chances are at striking out. Dunn probably worse off then other considering his average with 2 strikes is scary. I think it was Edabbs who quoted Dunn at something like 53 for 625 when he's down in the count 0-2. Of course most hitters would have terrible averages in that sceario 2, but that seems a bit more then terrible.

I like the idea of hitting him second before third, but I can understand the arguement for hitting him third. Hitting him in front of Junior maximizes his protection, not to mention Hatte hitting in front of Dunn in the 2 hole increases the chances of him getting on base in front of Dunner as well.

However, hitting Hatte second means more increased chances for a Double Play. I think Dunn is a better fit there because the pressure put on an opposing pitcher with Freel on 1st and Dunn at the plate is much more intimidating then Hatteberg. First, you gotta worry about Dunn knocking any one of your pitches 400 feet. Second, you gotta worry about which pitch Freel is gonna try to steal on. The chances of getting fastballs with a runner on 1st are increased so that the catcher has a better opportunity to throw the runner out at second. I would much rather see Dunn getting more fastballs then Hatteberg. Hatteberg has a better eye and his more solid in his approach to handle a mixture of pitches. Let's say Dunn bats 3rd. Freel walks and then Hatteberg walks. Now you have Dunn up with 2 runners on, but the liklihood of a steal dimishes because 3rd base is only base open now and the throw for the catcher to third is much easier then to second, especially with a lefty at the plate. With the opportunity to steal diminished, Dunn now will see a mixture of pitches so they do not load the bases with no one out.

Sorry if Ive confused some, but I think on the whole I'd much rather diminish Dunn's thought process at the plate by allowing him to know he's going to see more fastballs. I can just see Hatteberg taking a good pitch the other way more often then I can with Dunn.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-05-2007, 02:54 PM
I dig your optimism. I would run the 2004 and 2005 numbers, but it'll have to wait until another snow day. I don't actually recall Dunn hitting second very much at all before last year. I do remember Bob Boone hitting him first a couple of times, which was really unorthodox.

Thanks for adding you experience in the cleanup spot to the discussion. Even though it is softball that you were playing, I think your arguement does hold some weight. The clean up hitter is supposed to be the prize RBI man and there is added pressure there when teammates are on base. Not to mention, in this situation, the pitcher is more likely to show a less agressive approach especially with first base open. The best clean up hitters are the ones who can discern the difference between getting pitched around and not getting pitched to at all. (That is not coming very close to the strikezone at all, an unintentional but very much intentional walk) I think alot of times Dunn confuses these scenarios, either by thinking he's being pitched too and swinging at a bad ball or by taking early when hes getting pitched too. Each of these are bad scenarios because like most hitters as the count goes against Dunn the more increased his chances are at striking out. Dunn probably worse off then other considering his average with 2 strikes is scary. I think it was Edabbs who quoted Dunn at something like 53 for 625 when he's down in the count 0-2. Of course most hitters would have terrible averages in that sceario 2, but that seems a bit more then terrible.

I like the idea of hitting him second before third, but I can understand the arguement for hitting him third. Hitting him in front of Junior maximizes his protection, not to mention Hatte hitting in front of Dunn in the 2 hole increases the chances of him getting on base in front of Dunner as well.

However, hitting Hatte second means more increased chances for a Double Play. I think Dunn is a better fit there because the pressure put on an opposing pitcher with Freel on 1st and Dunn at the plate is much more intimidating then Hatteberg. First, you gotta worry about Dunn knocking any one of your pitches 400 feet. Second, you gotta worry about which pitch Freel is gonna try to steal on. The chances of getting fastballs with a runner on 1st are increased so that the catcher has a better opportunity to throw the runner out at second. I would much rather see Dunn getting more fastballs then Hatteberg. Hatteberg has a better eye and his more solid in his approach to handle a mixture of pitches. Let's say Dunn bats 3rd. Freel walks and then Hatteberg walks. Now you have Dunn up with 2 runners on, but the liklihood of a steal dimishes because 3rd base is only base open now and the throw for the catcher to third is much easier then to second, especially with a lefty at the plate. With the opportunity to steal diminished, Dunn now will see a mixture of pitches so they do not load the bases with no one out.

Sorry if Ive confused some, but I think on the whole I'd much rather diminish Dunn's thought process at the plate by allowing him to know he's going to see more fastballs. I can just see Hatteberg taking a good pitch the other way more often then I can with Dunn.
Good point about Dunn getting more fastball's with Freel on first, I'm sure that contributed to Dunn walking less in the 2 hole. Pitchers are going to pitch around the 2 hole hitter in very few situations, which tells me that he's going to get pitches to hit. Freel being on in front of him is one if the few things that can be a constant during the game, after all, after the first inning he's not likely to hit second in an inning more than one more time if that. Allmost makes you think that where everybody else hits in correlation to Dunn is more important than where Jerry puts him in the line up.

BRM
02-05-2007, 02:58 PM
Maybe I'm crazy but I have VERY little faith in Jerry going Dunn-EE-Griffey in the 2-4 spots, or the 3-5 spots for that matter. I really hope he does but my gut tells me it will be Griffey-EE-Dunn hitting 3-5.

RANDY IN INDY
02-05-2007, 02:58 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Dunn in the two hole, followed by Encarnacion and Griffey.

MississippiRed
02-05-2007, 03:33 PM
Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo


Yes, this is the correct lineup for this team. My preferred lineup, though, would be

Freel/Deno
Dunn
Ede
RH power-hitting 1B
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

If the power-hitting 1B is LH, swap Griffey and Ross if you care about left, right orders.

noskill27
02-05-2007, 03:43 PM
Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?

That's the lineup I think would work best for this team. My reasons. (http://morrisonhotelannex.blogspot.com/2007/01/because-im-bored-reds-lineup.html) Of course, by Opening Day, I might change my opinion.

Johnny Footstool
02-05-2007, 03:43 PM
Yes, this is the correct lineup for this team. My preferred lineup, though, would be

Freel/Deno
Dunn
Ede
RH power-hitting 1B
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

If the power-hitting 1B is LH, swap Griffey and Ross if you care about left, right orders.

The definitely need RH power. Ross provides about 300 ABs of that, but they need a quality, everyday RH bat.

jojo
02-05-2007, 03:55 PM
Bat Dunn second. That way when the defense does its hypershift, Freel can steal second and just keep on going to third....

:thumbup:

dougdirt
02-05-2007, 04:00 PM
Bat Dunn second. That way when the defense does its hypershift, Freel can steal second and just keep on going to third....

:thumbup:
I never really thought about that... you bring up a good point with that. Would they honestly pull a shift on Dunn with Freel on base? That would help improve on Dunns BABIP from last year, which I have a good feeling was affected quite a bit by the shift....

Johnny Footstool
02-05-2007, 04:06 PM
Bat Dunn second. That way when the defense does its hypershift, Freel can steal second and just keep on going to third....

:thumbup:

Exactly.

And Dunn works the count like crazy, which means Freel would get to see a lot of the pitcher's move to the plate. Bat Freel ahead of Dunn, and Freel could steal 70 bases (assuming he stayed healthy).

flyer85
02-05-2007, 04:20 PM
Hatty completely tanked in the #2 hole last season(.614 OPS) in 130ABs. You really don't want to give pitchers a good reason to pitch to him. Leave him in the 6 spot.

Freel
Dunn
EE
Jr
Ross
Hatty
Phillips
Gonzo

There is no way around the fact that the Reds are not going to score a bunch of runs in 2007.

gonelong
02-05-2007, 05:27 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Dunn in the two hole, followed by Encarnacion and Griffey.

That would make me very happy. :beerme:

GL

RedLegSuperStar
02-05-2007, 05:45 PM
Freel
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Ross
Phillips
Gonzo

That is my choice for the line-up!

Red Leader
02-05-2007, 06:30 PM
Hatty completely tanked in the #2 hole last season(.614 OPS) in 130ABs. You really don't want to give pitchers a good reason to pitch to him. Leave him in the 6 spot.

Freel
Dunn
EE
Jr
Ross
Hatty
Phillips
Gonzo

There is no way around the fact that the Reds are not going to score a bunch of runs in 2007.

I completely agree, flyer. I had considered putting Hatteberg in the 2 spot because of his OBP, but, like you, I think he's a better fit at the bottom of the lineup. Having said all of that, I think the above lineup positioning is the least likely of all scenarios (w/ the exception of Jr. leading off) that Narron would consider.

Red in Atl
02-05-2007, 06:50 PM
I think it's simple:

Dunn should bat 2nd
Hatteberg should bat 5th

The most success both had at the plate last year were in those spots. But no, Narron just had to keep moving them all around.

I don't care what anyone says. I want a set lineup. You didn't see Sparky messing with lineups like these guys do now.

forfreelin04
02-05-2007, 07:20 PM
I think it's simple:

Dunn should bat 2nd
Hatteberg should bat 5th

The most success both had at the plate last year were in those spots. But no, Narron just had to keep moving them all around.

I don't care what anyone says. I want a set lineup. You didn't see Sparky messing with lineups like these guys do now.

Agreed, something about a set lineup just feels better for a player. No guessing. It may sound trite but it is important to know what it is expected of you well in advance of an hour before gametime.

However, Red in ATL, without Jerrys revolving lineups the game threads would have nothing to talk about before gametime.

Redmachine2003
02-05-2007, 08:32 PM
I want BP batting in the 2 spot Lets not have Dun and Hatt. clogging up the bases if they do get on or helping the other team set up the double play ball with the speed these two have.
1 Freel / Deno
2 BP
3 Dunn
4 EE
5 Jr
6 Hatt/ Con
7 Gonzo
8 Ross / Val

Slyder
02-06-2007, 02:01 PM
Heres Mine:

Freel CF/RF
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
EE 3b
Ross/Phillips (whoever's hot) C/2b
Phillips/Ross 2b/C
Hatteberg/Conine 1b
Gonzalez SS

This I feel gives us the best balance with the given that Narron is likely to continue Griffey hitting 3rd. Dunn hasn't really shown that he can be counted on full time middle of the lineup with RBIs except when he destroys a pitch. Batting 2nd would optimize what we agree has been one of Dunn's better abilities getting on base and working pitchers. Plus having Freel ahead of Dunn gives pitchers a "distraction" on base with Freel.

flyer85
02-06-2007, 02:03 PM
I want BP batting in the 2 spot his low OBP means he should be nowhere near the top of the order. Batting him 7th would yield RBI opportunities without being hurt as much by his inability to get on base.

Redmachine2003
02-06-2007, 06:49 PM
his low OBP means he should be nowhere near the top of the order. Batting him 7th would yield RBI opportunities without being hurt as much by his inability to get on base.OBP is not as important in the 2 hole. You need a guy who can get the bunt down or hit the ball the other way to advance the runner or the speed to keep out of the double play and the speed to steal a base if he hits into a force out to keep the scoring threat alive.

dougdirt
02-06-2007, 06:53 PM
OBP is not as important in the 2 hole. You need a guy who can get the bunt down or hit the ball the other way to advance the runner or the speed to keep out of the double play and the speed to steal a base if he hits into a force out to keep the scoring threat alive.

Sure, if you want to play small ball every day. If you want to score more runs, you want as many people on base as possible for the 3-4-5 hitters.... and a high OBP guy i the #1 and #2 spot is the easiest way to make that happen.

Redmachine2003
02-06-2007, 07:35 PM
Sure, if you want to play small ball every day. If you want to score more runs, you want as many people on base as possible for the 3-4-5 hitters.... and a high OBP guy i the #1 and #2 spot is the easiest way to make that happen.
Then if that is the case you would want Dunn 2nd since he can't hit with runners on base and BP 3rd since he was second on the team in RBI's and did not drive himself in almost half the time. BP had a .320 + obp last year with a horrid Oct and Sep, was second on the team in SB's and RBI's. I really don't see a better player for the two hole better than him on this team. How many times did I hear last year if we would have played small ball we would have scored a couple more runs that game and with the rest of this lineup it is station to station, so the one and two holes are the only place they get to play small ball.

RedsManRick
02-06-2007, 07:44 PM
Then if that is the case you would want Dunn 2nd since he can't hit with runners on base and BP 3rd since he was second on the team in RBI's and did not drive himself in almost half the time. BP had a .320 + obp last year with a horrid Oct and Sep, was second on the team in SB's and RBI's. I really don't see a better player for the two hole better than him on this team. How many times did I hear last year if we would have played small ball we would have scored a couple more runs that game and with the rest of this lineup it is station to station, so the one and two holes are the only place they get to play small ball.

If you take extra base hits out of the equation for a minute, you'd rather have your walks up front and your singles in back. Both put a runner in position to score and advance a guy on 1st base, but walks don't score advance guys on 2nd or 3rd base. While it might not be conventional, I'd much rather see BP at 5 than 2.

While you can make the argument that you don't want Dunn hitting solo homers, the fact is, as has been shown, he gets pitched around with men on base. Unless he fundamentally changes who he is as a player, he's not going to hit lots of homers with guys on base because he doesn't have a great plate coverage, the ability to drive the ball when it's a strike but in a difficult place to drive, and is willing to take the walks he's given.

You have to play the players you have, not the players you want them to be.

pedro
02-06-2007, 07:47 PM
Unless Freel & Deno are in the lineup at the same time I'm in favor of Phillips batting second. I know he doesn't have a high OBP but he does have speed, puts the bat on the ball, has a little pop etc. Given the other choices the reds have I'd go

Freel/Deno
Phillips
Dunn
Edwin
Griffey
Hatteberg/Conine (that hurts just to type)
Ross/Valentin
Gonzalez

Redmachine2003
02-06-2007, 07:55 PM
"I'd much rather see BP at 5 than 2."
But you also have just made BP speed worth less. If you have anyone on base except freel and maybe EE, BP is going nowhere. No steals, no going 1st to 3rd on base hits because the person in front of him can't score from second. No putting pressure on the pitcher with Freel on 1st trying to steal and BP trying to drop a bunt that he can beat out.

pedro
02-06-2007, 07:57 PM
But you also have just made BP speed worth less. If you have anyone on base except freel and maybe EE, BP is going nowhere. No steals, no going 1st to 3rd on base hits because the person in front of him can't score from second. No putting pressure on the pitcher with Freel on 1st trying to steal and BP trying to drop a bunt that he can beat out.

NM.

Redmachine2003
02-06-2007, 08:05 PM
Unless Freel & Deno are in the lineup at the same time I'm in favor of Phillips batting second. I know he doesn't have a high OBP but he does have speed, puts the bat on the ball, has a little pop etc. Given the other choices the reds have I'd go

Freel/Deno
Phillips
Dunn
Edwin
Griffey
Hatteberg/Conine (that hurts just to type)
Ross/Valentin
GonzalezI can agree with Ross ahead of Gonzo but if Valentin is in Gonzo has to bat 7th.

pedro
02-06-2007, 08:11 PM
I can agree with Ross ahead of Gonzo but if Valentin is in Gonzo has to bat 7th.

If, god forbid, valentin is in there against LH pitching, yes, but against RH Valentin will out OPS Gonzo.

RedsManRick
02-06-2007, 08:19 PM
"I'd much rather see BP at 5 than 2."
But you also have just made BP speed worth less. If you have anyone on base except freel and maybe EE, BP is going nowhere. No steals, no going 1st to 3rd on base hits because the person in front of him can't score from second. No putting pressure on the pitcher with Freel on 1st trying to steal and BP trying to drop a bunt that he can beat out.

Actually, you've just made his speed more valuable. Firstly, as Dan Fox discussed in his chat on BP.com today the run value difference between the best base runner and the worst baserunner in all of baseball is about 10 runs per year. Thus, because you're only moving him down in the order, the run value difference of that move based on his base running ability is so small as to be dwarfed by the effect of his OBP.

Also, you don't need speed to score from 2nd on a double or trot around the bases on a HR. If the likelihood of BP to be advanced by the runners behind him decreases when he moves down in the order, his ability to advance himself around the bases becomes that much more valuable. If the guys hitting behind him aren't as likely to hit that double or homer which would drive him in otherwise, the value of his ability to put himself in scoring position for that single or sac fly is increased.

An additional note, a study in the BP book Behind the Numbers shows that having a "speedy" runner on 1st base actually has a slight depressive affect on the guy at the plate. That is, it seems the hitter more distracted by the speed on base than is the pitcher or fielders.

Given all of this, and the well-established value of OBP, I've come to the conclusion, that speed is nice, but outside of some very rare extremes, it should be a non consideration, or at best a tie-breaker given equal performance in terms of OBP. While I'd prefer neither of them bat 2nd, if I had to choose between Phillips and Hatteberg, I'd choose Hat in a heartbeat.

Red Heeler
02-07-2007, 12:48 AM
Sure, if you want to play small ball every day. If you want to score more runs, you want as many people on base as possible for the 3-4-5 hitters.... and a high OBP guy i the #1 and #2 spot is the easiest way to make that happen.

Absolutely, though it would be nice if you could have a guy who could play some small ball when called upon and also get on base (think vintage Larkin). If I were running the ship, I would have either skipped on AGon and tried Phillips at SS or looked to trade Phillips once AGon was signed. That would have opened spots for both Freel and Deno to bat 1-2 in front of the thunder.

pedro
02-07-2007, 12:54 AM
Actually, you've just made his speed more valuable. Firstly, as Dan Fox discussed in his chat on BP.com today the run value difference between the best base runner and the worst baserunner in all of baseball is about 10 runs per year. Thus, because you're only moving him down in the order, the run value difference of that move based on his base running ability is so small as to be dwarfed by the effect of his OBP.

Also, you don't need speed to score from 2nd on a double or trot around the bases on a HR. If the likelihood of BP to be advanced by the runners behind him decreases when he moves down in the order, his ability to advance himself around the bases becomes that much more valuable. If the guys hitting behind him aren't as likely to hit that double or homer which would drive him in otherwise, the value of his ability to put himself in scoring position for that single or sac fly is increased.

An additional note, a study in the BP book Behind the Numbers shows that having a "speedy" runner on 1st base actually has a slight depressive affect on the guy at the plate. That is, it seems the hitter more distracted by the speed on base than is the pitcher or fielders.

Given all of this, and the well-established value of OBP, I've come to the conclusion, that speed is nice, but outside of some very rare extremes, it should be a non consideration, or at best a tie-breaker given equal performance in terms of OBP. While I'd prefer neither of them bat 2nd, if I had to choose between Phillips and Hatteberg, I'd choose Hat in a heartbeat.

the problem is that Hatteberg is a marginal player who has a good eye. He does better lower in the lineup where they'll pitch around him. If the Reds put Hatteberg in the #2 hole, he'll get challenged a lot, his OBP will go down as will his BA IMO.

RichRed
02-07-2007, 12:39 PM
Then if that is the case you would want Dunn 2nd since he can't hit with runners on base

This myth needs to be put to bed. Numbers for 2004-06 with men on base:

.243/.412/.520/.932

54 HRs, 223 RBI in 733 AB

bucksfan2
02-07-2007, 03:53 PM
My lineup would look like this.
Deno/Freel
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Jr
Ross
Hatte/Conine
Gonzo

I dont understand why everyone wants to drop Phillips so far down in the lineup. They guy has shown the ability to be a very effective base runner. I would also like to see how he performs with the likes of EE or Dunn protecting him. While he is a free swinger I would rather have him hitting in the 2 hole, getting on base and causing havoc. Hatte gets on base a lot but is really limited to what he can do when he gets on.