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View Full Version : reds of the near future!.!.!.



redsgabp
02-06-2007, 06:14 PM
I will admit before I had read that Harang was signed to a 4 year contract, that I was starting to think the Reds might not be playing to win.

I understand that we dont have top market money, but castellini does seem to want to win with this harang deal.

You use to look at the reds and be amazed at the POWER we had.
But we couldn't always put up 10 runs a game and get a win.

We were the reds that had the power but we didn't have the pitchers.

-------------------------

Now we are starting to get a decent core of players all around.

we will have
Harang / 4 to 5+ more years :beerme:

Arroyo / this season and next season. I hope he starts to like cincinnati!!!

Bailey / only the future can tell how bright this guy can shine. but he looks like a future all-star in the seasons to come.

and I even like a few guys from that dreaded bullpen.
Coffey / was lights out last year as a set-up man.

Bray / I think he will make a good closer one day and at worst be another A+
guy like Coffey from the pen.

Majewski / wasn't really given a chance for us last year being injured, but I think he will be another guy from the pen that will be a better option than david weathers.
---------------------------------------

I wonder who we can sign as a free agent for 10 mil a year next year?
because with miltons 10 mil gone after this season, I think we may get another A+ pitcher!

Oh yes there is other talent that is awesome like Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, and Ryan Freel

and if dunns new batting coach can help keep the so down! :jump:

Oh to be a reds fan with some hope again!

AdamDunn
02-06-2007, 08:28 PM
Players that are going to be on the 25 man roster in 2010:

Starting Line-Up:
OF Jay Bruce
OF Chris Denorfia
OF Ryan Freel
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS ____________
C ____________

CL Bill Bray
RP Gary Majewski
RP Todd Coffey
RP Matt Belisle
RP ___________
RP ___________
RP ___________

SP Aaron Harang
SP Homer Bailey
SP Johnhy Cueto
SP Travis Wood
SP Elizardo Ramirez

Bench
C ___________
OF Drew Stubbs
IF Milton Loo
____________
____________


lines are positions that I think will be filled by free agents, not internally

redsgabp
02-06-2007, 08:50 PM
Players that are going to be on the 25 man roster in 2010:

Starting Line-Up:
OF Jay Bruce
OF Chris Denorfia
OF Ryan Freel
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS ____________
C ____________

CL Bill Bray
RP Gary Majewski
RP Todd Coffey
RP Matt Belisle
RP ___________
RP ___________
RP ___________

SP Aaron Harang
SP Homer Bailey
SP Johnhy Cueto
SP Travis Wood
SP Elizardo Ramirez

Bench
C ___________
OF Drew Stubbs
IF Milton Loo
____________
____________


lines are positions that I think will be filled by free agents, not internally

hmmmm.

a guy named adam dunn and you dont have yourself in that line-up?

i for one like adam dunn.
i know he can have a hole in the glove once in a while.

but with freel in center, that will help dunns d.

see if the new guy can help keep dunns SO, down.

Dunn can be a big building block and he's still young.
give him some time before everyone gives up on him.

AdamDunn
02-06-2007, 09:19 PM
hmmmm.

a guy named adam dunn and you dont have yourself in that line-up?

i for one like adam dunn.
i know he can have a hole in the glove once in a while.

but with freel in center, that will help dunns d.

see if the new guy can help keep dunns SO, down.

Dunn can be a big building block and he's still young.
give him some time before everyone gives up on him.

I love adam dunn (see my s/n). But I don't think he'll be around unless he corrects his strike out problem and ups his production some more. This was a bad year for Dunn. Unless he hits in 110 RBI's this season and bats higher than .250 and an OBP around .380, I don't see the Red's renewing his contract. Especially if Jay Bruce is coming up fast.

dougdirt
02-06-2007, 09:21 PM
I just dont think it would be smart to sign Dunn to another contract. When his current one is up, he is probably going to be thinking "this is the time to sign a big contract and set me up for life". By the time that happens, he will be 30 and probably heading to the downside of his career, but he will be paid for what he has done in the past and he probably wont produce like he did. in this market, we cant afford players like that.

cacollinsmba
02-06-2007, 10:58 PM
I thought "reds of the near future" was going to be a post about Minnesota players that had recently been released.

Superdude
02-06-2007, 11:06 PM
Starting Line-Up:
OF Jay Bruce
OF Chris Denorfia
OF Ryan Freel

If a 26 year old Stubbs can't outplay a 35 year old Freel, then I'll be very mad at Wayne Krivsky.

AdamDunn
02-07-2007, 11:14 AM
If a 26 year old Stubbs can't outplay a 35 year old Freel, then I'll be very mad at Wayne Krivsky.

I just don't think Stubbs can play, period. He can't hit. I think he'll be like a Alex Sanchez or a Joey Gathright, just with good defense, more power (when he hits the ball), and more strikeouts.

redsmetz
02-07-2007, 11:23 AM
I just dont think it would be smart to sign Dunn to another contract. When his current one is up, he is probably going to be thinking "this is the time to sign a big contract and set me up for life". By the time that happens, he will be 30 and probably heading to the downside of his career, but he will be paid for what he has done in the past and he probably wont produce like he did. in this market, we cant afford players like that.

If Adam Dunn isn't set for life now, then he has fools for financial and legal advisors. I can't foresee the future, but I'd expect Dunn not to be on his downside at 30. I remember the club saying that about a guy named Robinson and he was fairly productive after that age. I don't see why that can't be the case with Dunn. I don't know what Obi Wan Pecoata says about that, but I'll take my chances with Dunn.

Johnny Footstool
02-07-2007, 11:26 AM
Freel is a free agent after this season.

redsmetz
02-07-2007, 11:31 AM
Freel is a free agent after this season.

And he'll be 34 in 2010. I think it's doubtful that Freel is a significant player here, if he's here at all.

And certainly you can't conjecture for free agents or players acquired in trades, if Dunn's not here, we better have something to show for it playing for us in 2010!

RedEye
02-07-2007, 07:44 PM
[QUOTE=AdamDunn;1238417]Players that are going to be on the 25 man roster in 2010:

Bench
C ___________
OF Drew Stubbs
IF Milton Loo
____________
____________

QUOTE]

Why do you think Stubbs will be on the bench? Have you lost that much faith in him after one season? I really hope you are wrong, but you may be right. He could be a glorified Herm Winningham on the 2010 team... even though Herm is my all-time favorite fourth outfielder, I hate to see a #8 overall pick go that way.

AdamDunn
02-08-2007, 06:45 PM
[QUOTE=AdamDunn;1238417]Players that are going to be on the 25 man roster in 2010:

Bench
C ___________
OF Drew Stubbs
IF Milton Loo
____________
____________

QUOTE]

Why do you think Stubbs will be on the bench? Have you lost that much faith in him after one season? I really hope you are wrong, but you may be right. He could be a glorified Herm Winningham on the 2010 team... even though Herm is my all-time favorite fourth outfielder, I hate to see a #8 overall pick go that way.

I never had faith to begin with. Honestly, if you can't put the bat on the ball in low A ball, there's not much hope... especially if you're a college player.

dougdirt
02-08-2007, 10:11 PM
If Adam Dunn isn't set for life now, then he has fools for financial and legal advisors. I can't foresee the future, but I'd expect Dunn not to be on his downside at 30. I remember the club saying that about a guy named Robinson and he was fairly productive after that age. I don't see why that can't be the case with Dunn. I don't know what Obi Wan Pecoata says about that, but I'll take my chances with Dunn.

Lets be fair here, Frank Robinson was a lot better than Adam Dunn is. Not a slight on Dunn, but Robinson is an all time great.

tripleaaaron
02-09-2007, 04:09 AM
Dont think stubbs would be on the bench at all. No poss.
At this time, stubbs will be 24-25 and will not be our 4th OF. He will either be starting in MLB, starting in AAA (for 1st half of season), or traded "for a change of scenery" as he is a 3rd overall pick if he doesn't seem to project to start, someone will believe they can fix him. So no he will not be on the 2010 bench. Also Freel will definately not be here, as I love him as a player, he will probably become a drifter after this season, and as he will be 35, the only chance that he will be here is if he came back for a one year hiatus to plug a hole.
We can add Bronson to that list!

redsmetz
02-09-2007, 06:27 AM
Lets be fair here, Frank Robinson was a lot better than Adam Dunn is. Not a slight on Dunn, but Robinson is an all time great.

I don't disagree with that. The comparison wasn't to Robinson directly, but to the notion that Dunn would necessarily be on his downside at 30. That's an old axiom that I think guys like Robby showed to be erroneous. Now Dunn would have to do a lot of work to not be on that downside, but I'd like to think it's not a given.

dougdirt
02-09-2007, 12:13 PM
I think when large guys that are the size of Adam Dunn get into their 30's they arent going to play as well, especially in the NL, as they did when they were in their 20's. I just cant see a 275 pound Adam Dunn being 32 years old and being able to play the outfield. He is already one of, if not the worst outfielders at his position, add years and probably a few pounds to it and he really needs to be at first base or DH.

Phhhl
02-09-2007, 12:22 PM
If there truly is no interest in Dunn from other teams (and I still find that difficult to believe), this would be the perfect time to step up and sign him to a long term deal also. The Reds might be able to manage a sweet deal.

AdamDunn
02-09-2007, 04:37 PM
Dont think stubbs would be on the bench at all. No poss.
At this time, stubbs will be 24-25 and will not be our 4th OF. He will either be starting in MLB, starting in AAA (for 1st half of season), or traded "for a change of scenery" as he is a 3rd overall pick if he doesn't seem to project to start, someone will believe they can fix him. So no he will not be on the 2010 bench. Also Freel will definately not be here, as I love him as a player, he will probably become a drifter after this season, and as he will be 35, the only chance that he will be here is if he came back for a one year hiatus to plug a hole.
We can add Bronson to that list!

Stubbs was the 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, not third. you might have been thinking of Chris Gruler who was the third overall pick in the 2002 draft.

Either way, good point on the trading idea and about Freel. But I think he's such a fan favorite that the Reds will keep him around. Not to mention that he'll cost less to keep since he still doesn't have a finite position. So I'll put him on the bench. If that's the case, the Red's might not trade Stubbs unless they get something real good. Stubbs still has defense, speed, and power. If things don't pan out with his hitting ability, he can still be a defensive replacement, pinch hitter, and a pinch runner. I don't think too many GM's will give up much for him if he doesn't put the bat on the ball in the minors since he was the 8th overall pick in a very weak draft. In a normal draft, they said he would be around the 20th-30th pick.

Update:
Starting Line-Up:
OF Jay Bruce
OF Chris Denorfia
OF ____________
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS ____________
C ____________

CL Bill Bray
RP Gary Majewski
RP Todd Coffey
RP Matt Belisle
RP Elizardo Ramirez
RP ___________
RP ___________

SP Aaron Harang
SP Homer Bailey
SP Johnhy Cueto
SP Travis Wood
SP Bronson Arroyo

Bench
C ___________
OF Drew Stubbs
IF Milton Loo
Utility Ryan Freel
____________

redsgabp
02-09-2007, 05:15 PM
I think when large guys that are the size of Adam Dunn get into their 30's they arent going to play as well, especially in the NL, as they did when they were in their 20's. I just cant see a 275 pound Adam Dunn being 32 years old and being able to play the outfield. He is already one of, if not the worst outfielders at his position, add years and probably a few pounds to it and he really needs to be at first base or DH.


Dunn could always be moved to first base for a second time.

mth123
02-09-2007, 07:53 PM
I think when large guys that are the size of Adam Dunn get into their 30's they arent going to play as well, especially in the NL, as they did when they were in their 20's. I just cant see a 275 pound Adam Dunn being 32 years old and being able to play the outfield. He is already one of, if not the worst outfielders at his position, add years and probably a few pounds to it and he really needs to be at first base or DH.

The flip side is that games built around power and patience don't diminish as quickly with age IMO. Its true that if Dunn continues to add weight he'll have problems, but the guys built around speed and athleticism lose a lot of value as they age and lose a step or two.

I'd say that Ryan Freel would be useless if he didn't have plus speed, but Dunn could still hit HR as his footspeed continues to decline.

Patrick Bateman
02-09-2007, 08:06 PM
Freel is a free agent after this season.

How do you figure?

By my count, he still has 3 years left.

redsgabp
02-09-2007, 08:07 PM
The flip side is that games built around power and patience don't diminish as quickly with age IMO. Its true that if Dunn continues to add weight he'll have problems, but the guys built around speed and athleticism lose a lot of value as they age and lose a step or two.

I'd say that Ryan Freel would be useless if he didn't have plus speed, but Dunn could still hit HR as his footspeed continues to decline.

so true...

babe ruth anyone?

no i'm not saying dunner is a babe ruth, but the babe was a puggy guy who could still crank them out of the park despite the weight.

maybe we should see if dunn can pitch too.
LOL

mth123
02-10-2007, 06:03 PM
How do you figure?

By my count, he still has 3 years left.

He does, but he will only be a bargain for one more. He's already 31, seems to be losing his IF versatility and will likely get a big raise. I still say a trade now would net the reds something of value for the run at true contention in 2009 or so. The Reds won't get that value by waiting.

The Reds have pressing needs in other areas that Freel could probably help fill with a deal. The table below (PECOTA) says that the Reds have a very similar option as tablesetters go with more power potential, youth and after this year at significantly fewer $.




|-----Freel-------| |------Deno----------|
OBP SLG Age OBP SLG Age
2007 0.361 0.404 31 0.365 0.459 26
2008 0.360 0.402 32 0.364 0.446 27
2009 0.369 0.412 33 0.365 0.453 28
2010 0.364 0.409 34 0.358 0.445 29
2011 0.367 0.405 35 0.362 0.448 30



Freel's big advantage over Deno is his ability to play the IF, and with Bellhorn and Keppinger on hand, it does not appear that the Reds have any plans to use him in that manner.