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jamess697
02-07-2007, 10:34 PM
I took a look around the league and was a little suprised by how our pitching staff stood up with theirs. We are loaded with possible number 5 starters which if on other teams could be 3-4-5 starters and we have a young stud in the minors waiting to shine by mid season.

Harang
Arroyo
Lohse
Milton
Saarlos
Belisle
Ramirez
Livingston


That is a quantity of pitchers that could push each other to suceed. Lohse is on a free agent year and he has all of the tools to be good. Milton is also on a free agent year and if he stays healthy he could be consistant and productive. I really like the Saarlos deal because he is another young and promising starter. I believe that this is the best rotation I have seen in Cincinnati for a long time!

jojo
02-07-2007, 10:41 PM
We are loaded with possible number 5 starters which if on other teams could be 3-4-5 starters and we have a young stud in the minors waiting to shine by mid season.

Harang
Arroyo
Lohse
Milton
Saarlos
Belisle
Ramirez
Livingston


That is a quantity of pitchers that could push each other to suceed. Lohse is on a free agent year and he has all of the tools to be good. Milton is also on a free agent year and if he stays healthy he could be consistant and productive. I really like the Saarlos deal because he is another young and promising starter. I believe that this is the best rotation I have seen in Cincinnati for a long time!

ughhhhhh.....hope springs eternal this time of year.... I guess even turds help flowers to grow....

paulrichjr
02-07-2007, 11:18 PM
ughhhhhh.....hope springs eternal this time of year.... I guess even turds help flowers to grow....

I also am negative sometimes but honestly what the first poster said is true. We have a rotation that is the best that it has been in years. We have a potential number 1 starter knocking on the door. Everyone in the National League and many teams in the American League (including the Yanks) have 2 or 3 spots that are weak. Very few teams in either league have 2 starters that do what Harang and Arroyo did last year. I think saying positive things when there are positive things to talk about could be something new and refreshing on this board.

jmac
02-07-2007, 11:22 PM
ughhhhhh.....hope springs eternal this time of year.... I guess even turds help flowers to grow....

so would we be better if we had the Lilly's,Meche's, and William's of the world?
While our staff is not the bosox staff....it is comparable to most of the NL's.

Falls City Beer
02-07-2007, 11:24 PM
I also am negative sometimes but honestly what the first poster said is true. We have a rotation that is the best that it has been in years. We have a potential number 1 starter knocking on the door. Everyone in the National League and many teams in the American League (including the Yanks) have 2 or 3 spots that are weak. Very few teams in either league have 2 starters that do what Harang and Arroyo did last year. I think saying positive things when there are positive things to talk about could be something new and refreshing on this board.


Maybe, but how many teams have 3-5 spots as weak as the Reds'?

That to me is the signal question.

edabbs44
02-07-2007, 11:30 PM
so would we be better if we had the Lilly's,Meche's, and William's of the world?
While our staff is not the bosox staff....is is comparable to most of the NL's.

Yes, the Reds would be better on the field, but not economically.

The wild card is that Cincy is historically not big players at the deadline. So this, with the exception of a Homer calling, will be their rotation. If they were battling the Mets for a WC spot in July, I'm sure the Mets would spend the money to get over the hump while Cincy goes bargain shopping.

hippie07
02-07-2007, 11:30 PM
Pitching in general is something that I think will be a strength for us this year - we have a decent rotation and I think we also have a decent bullpen (despite all the negativity on RZ). We have options this year!! I think there's room for optimism there.

edabbs44
02-07-2007, 11:31 PM
Pitching in general is something that I think will be a strength for us this year - we have a decent rotation and I think we also have a decent bullpen (despite all the negativity on RZ). We have options this year!! I think there's room for optimism there.

http://www.girlalive.com/tshirts/images/hipp2thumb.jpg

Sorry...had to do it.

jojo
02-07-2007, 11:32 PM
I also am negative sometimes but honestly what the first poster said is true. We have a rotation that is the best that it has been in years. We have a potential number 1 starter knocking on the door. Everyone in the National League and many teams in the American League (including the Yanks) have 2 or 3 spots that are weak. Very few teams in either league have 2 starters that do what Harang and Arroyo did last year. I think saying positive things when there are positive things to talk about could be something new and refreshing on this board.

I'm all for positivity. But what's desirable about positivity that's not factually reasonable?

Falls City Beer
02-07-2007, 11:36 PM
When you consider that Victor Santos reasonably could represent an upgrade over 3/5 of your current major league rotation, you have very, very serious problems.

shredda2000
02-08-2007, 12:49 AM
I took a look around the league and was a little suprised by how our pitching staff stood up with theirs. We are loaded with possible number 5 starters which if on other teams could be 3-4-5 starters and we have a young stud in the minors waiting to shine by mid season.

Harang
Arroyo
Lohse
Milton
Saarlos
Belisle
Ramirez
Livingston


That is a quantity of pitchers that could push each other to succeed. Lohse is on a free agent year and he has all of the tools to be good. Milton is also on a free agent year and if he stays healthy he could be consistant and productive. I really like the Saarlos deal because he is another young and promising starter. I believe that this is the best rotation I have seen in Cincinnati for a long time!

I believe you hit the nail on the head there. IMO, bringing in Arroyo last year sure helped Harang step up his game...competing for spots in the rotation and in the bullpen is a good thing!

P.S. I don't know why I am saying this, but I think that Saarloos will be a surprise this year. Maybe Arroyo Part Deux???

Eric_Davis
02-08-2007, 01:43 AM
Wayne Krivsky isn't done this year, of course.

There's more to come.

There will definitely be some trading still at the A, and AA level, but I'm believing that there is at least one more move at the AAA/Major League level.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 08:59 AM
I am really happy about our pitching...like a few others have said it is the strongest it has been in years.

Lohse, Milton, Sarloos, Santos and others competing for the 3-5 and long relief spots isn't bad.

The other variable in all of this is the new Pitching Coach...Pole could be a difference maker in some of these guys game...he's done it before.

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 09:38 AM
I am really happy about our pitching...like a few others have said it is the strongest it has been in years.

Lohse, Milton, Sarloos, Santos and others competing for the 3-5 and long relief spots isn't bad.

The other variable in all of this is the new Pitching Coach...Pole could be a difference maker in some of these guys game...he's done it before.

I think all of this needs to be considered. And this isn't fantasy. I see no reason why we must believe that because some pitcher or another has struggled before means they must always struggle. Or why no pitcher can pitch better once they reach the Reds. These are human beings playing this game and to have reached the majors they must have a level of competitiveness that can benefit this club.

I expect much from our staff and I see no reason why they can't compete in the Central division. Will it be a cakewalk? Of course not! But we have several pitchers who can step up and perform at a higher level, regardless of what St. Pecota or the Alphabet Soup stat lines suggest may happen. I know that may be considered mocking, but we really don't leave in a world of predetermination. Human actors play these things out.

bucksfan2
02-08-2007, 09:53 AM
I agree that this is the best staff the reds have had in years. The depth of arms is also helpful. They won't have to go to the scrap pile to pick up another starter if someone gets injured (Joe Mays). Hopefully pitchers this year wont pitch when they are injured (Milton, EZ, etc.). I am expecting big things from Arroyo this year. He struggle at times to get a win last year but that doesn't mean he didn't pitch well.

You have both Harang and Arroyo who are a pretty good 1-2 punch. You have Lohse and Saarloos who have both pitched well at certain points in their career. Then you have a guy like Milton who has something to prove before he its fee agency. It is a pretty good rotation as is but you have the wild card in Baily hopefully coming up sometime this year. IF the reds can score enough runs this year it just may be a successful year.

jojo
02-08-2007, 09:56 AM
I think all of this needs to be considered. And this isn't fantasy. I see no reason why we must believe that because some pitcher or another has struggled before means they must always struggle. Or why no pitcher can pitch better once they reach the Reds. These are human beings playing this game and to have reached the majors they must have a level of competitiveness that can benefit this club.

I expect much from our staff and I see no reason why they can't compete in the Central division. Will it be a cakewalk? Of course not! But we have several pitchers who can step up and perform at a higher level, regardless of what St. Pecota or the Alphabet Soup stat lines suggest may happen. I know that may be considered mocking, but we really don't leave in a world of predetermination. Human actors play these things out.

Obviously one would rather have competition versus none at all for roster spots. But competition between a bunch of suspect performers isn't really that helpful-especially when it's a bunch of #5's competing for the #3 spot. I think the underlying point is this-while having competition is the ideal to strive for because it suggests depth, context is what really defines depth. In other words, competition in and of itself is not necessarily an advantage.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 10:20 AM
I agree that this is the best staff the reds have had in years. The depth of arms is also helpful. They won't have to go to the scrap pile to pick up another starter if someone gets injured (Joe Mays). Hopefully pitchers this year wont pitch when they are injured (Milton, EZ, etc.). I am expecting big things from Arroyo this year. He struggle at times to get a win last year but that doesn't mean he didn't pitch well.

You have both Harang and Arroyo who are a pretty good 1-2 punch. You have Lohse and Saarloos who have both pitched well at certain points in their career. Then you have a guy like Milton who has something to prove before he its fee agency. It is a pretty good rotation as is but you have the wild card in Baily hopefully coming up sometime this year. IF the reds can score enough runs this year it just may be a successful year.

Lohse, Milton and Saarloos are not far away from being scrap pile guys.

Mays ERAs:
2003: 6.30
2005: 5.65
2006: 8.70

Milton ERAs:
2004: 4.75
2005: 6.47
2006: 5.19

Lohse ERAs:
2004: 5.34
2005: 4.18
2006: 5.83

Saarloos ERAs:
2005: 4.17 (1.403 WHIP)
2006: 4.75 (1.665 WHIP)

Mays is probably the worst of the bunch here, but I don't think there is that huge of a gap between the "scrap pile" (Mays) and who is penciled in as the #3-5 guys.

thatcoolguy_22
02-08-2007, 10:39 AM
I agree that this is the best staff the reds have had in years. The depth of arms is also helpful. They won't have to go to the scrap pile to pick up another starter if someone gets injured (Joe Mays). Hopefully pitchers this year wont pitch when they are injured (Milton, EZ, etc.). I am expecting big things from Arroyo this year. He struggle at times to get a win last year but that doesn't mean he didn't pitch well.

You have both Harang and Arroyo who are a pretty good 1-2 punch. You have Lohse and Saarloos who have both pitched well at certain points in their career. Then you have a guy like Milton who has something to prove before he its fee agency. It is a pretty good rotation as is but you have the wild card in Baily hopefully coming up sometime this year. IF the reds can score enough runs this year it just may be a successful year.




I wouldn't count on Baily coming into the league and being a firestorm. He will struggle as much as should be expected when he hits the league this year. However you should expect a few completely dominant performances sometime in sept.


Also lets compare our 1-5 to the rest of the central and see where we stand...


1Astros

1 Roy Oswalt
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
15 8 2.98 33 32 2 0 0 0 220.2 220 76 73 18 38 166

2 Jason Jennings
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
9 13 3.78 32 32 3 2 0 0 212.0 206 94 89 17 85 142

3 Woody Williams
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
12 5 3.65 25 24 0 0 0 0 145.1 152 68 59 21 35 72

4 Wandy Rodriquez
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
9 10 5.64 30 24 0 0 0 0 135.2 154 96 85 17 63 98

5 Matt Albers
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
2006 0 2 6.00 4 2 0 0 0 0 15.0 17 10 10 1 7 11


2. Brewers
1 Chris Capuano
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
11 12 4.03 34 34 3 2 0 0 221.1 229 108 99 29 47 174

2 Ben Sheets
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
6 7 3.82 17 17 0 0 0 0 106.0 105 47 45 9 11 116

3 Jeff Suppan
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
12 7 4.12 32 32 0 0 0 0 190.0 207 100 87 21 69 104

4 Dave Bush
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
12 11 4.41 34 32 3 2 0 0 210.0 201 111 103 26 38 166

5 Claudio Vargas
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
12 10 4.83 31 30 0 0 0 0 167.2 185 101 90 27 52 123


3. Reds

1 Aaron Harang
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
16 7 3.41 33 33 0 0 0 0 214.0 162 91 81 20 115 210

2 Bronson Arroyo
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
14 11 3.29 35 35 3 1 0 0 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184

3 Eric Milton
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
8 8 5.19 26 26 0 0 0 0 152.2 163 94 88 29 42 90

4 Kyle Lohse
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
5 10 5.83 34 19 0 0 0 0 126.2 150 83 82 15 44 97

5 Kirk Saarlos
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
7 7 4.75 35 16 0 0 2 3 121.1 149 70 64 19 53 52

5 Matt Belisle
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
2 0 3.60 30 2 0 0 0 1 40.0 43 18 16 5 19 26


4. Cubs
1 Carlos Zambrano
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
16 7 3.41 33 33 0 0 0 0 214.0 162 91 81 20 115 210

2 Ted Lilly
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
15 13 4.31 32 32 0 0 0 0 181.2 179 98 87 28 81 160

3 Jason Marquis
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
14 16 6.02 33 33 0 0 0 0 194.1 221 136 130 35 75 96

4 Rich Hill
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
6 7 4.17 17 16 2 1 0 0 99.1 83 51 46 16 39 90

5 Mark Prior
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
1 6 7.21 9 9 0 0 0 0 43.2 46 39 35 9 28 38

5. Cardinals
1 Chris Carpenter
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
15 8 3.09 32 32 5 3 0 0 221.2 194 81 76 21 43 184

2 Kip Wells
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
2 5 6.50 9 9 0 0 0 0 44.1 61 33 32 3 21 20

3 Anthony Reyes
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
5 8 5.06 17 17 1 0 0 0 85.1 84 48 48 17 34 72
4 Not listed on mlb.com’s depth chart
5 Not listed on mlb.com’s depth chart

6. Pirates
1 Zach Duke
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
10 15 4.47 34 34 2 1 0 0 215.1 255 116 107 17 68 117

2 Ian Snell
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
14 11 4.74 32 32 0 0 0 0 186.0 198 104 98 29 74 169

3 Shawn Chacon
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
7 6 6.36 26 20 0 0 0 0 109.0 124 87 77 23 63 62

4 Paul Maholm
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
8 10 4.76 30 30 0 0 0 0 176.0 202 98 93 19 81 117

5 Sean Burnette
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
2006 No Major League Stats Available
Career 5 5 5.02 13 13 1 1 0 0 71.2 86 41 40 9 28 30





With our bullpen old but getting guys out we have a possibility of have a team ERA somewhere around 4.5. We could easily see something better if Lohse's "stuff" comes through into his numbers, Harang continues his improvement, Arroyo maintains, Milton pitches like it his his walk year and, Saarlos experiences his A.L.-N.L. drop in ERA that is common

UK Reds Fan
02-08-2007, 02:23 PM
I won't argue that Milton and Lohse very possibly may not be much better than a scrap heap guy ala...Mays, Franklin, etc..

But why does Sarloos get bunched into that group as well? His numbers are not in the same level of terribleness as any of those guys

I'm just hoping we can get something from on of Milton/Lohse/EZ for half of the year until Bailey may be ready give us a lift at the All star break and we may have a solid rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Sarloos, Homer and one of Milton/Lose/EZ. I don't see that as destructive as some make it out to be for some reason.

jojo
02-08-2007, 02:57 PM
But why does Sarloos get bunched into that group as well? His numbers are not in the same level of terribleness as any of those guys

Several recent threads have been devoted to that very issue. A quick search should lead to your enlightenment.

AdamDunn
02-08-2007, 03:32 PM
Wayne Krivsky isn't done this year, of course.

There's more to come.

There will definitely be some trading still at the A, and AA level, but I'm believing that there is at least one more move at the AAA/Major League level.

we better not start trading people like Cueto, Wood, and Votto, or I'll be pissed!

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-08-2007, 03:51 PM
Yes, the Reds would be better on the field, but not economically.

The wild card is that Cincy is historically not big players at the deadline. So this, with the exception of a Homer calling, will be their rotation. If they were battling the Mets for a WC spot in July, I'm sure the Mets would spend the money to get over the hump while Cincy goes bargain shopping.
"Cincy historically" doesn't work here. We have new ownership and a new GM and I've seen nothing that suggests their unwillingness to make a move when it's needed. They may not blow money like the big market teams but I think they have the sack to do what needs to be done.