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Heath
02-08-2007, 12:04 PM
Per Reds.Com -it's true.


Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension
02/08/2007 10:52 AM ET
MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- The Cincinnati Reds and All-Star RHP Bronson Arroyo have agreed to terms on a 2-year contract extension through the 2010 season with a club option for 2011.

On Tuesday, the Reds and RHP Aaron Harang avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 4-year contract through the 2010 season with a club option for 2011. Last season, Arroyo and Harang became the first duo in Reds history to produce at least 200 innings and 184 strikeouts each. They tied for the Major League lead in starts (35), while Arroyo ranked first in the majors in innings pitched (240.2) and Harang finished third in the National League in that category (234.1).

Arroyo, 30, last season was a National League All-Star and was voted by the Cincinnati chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America the winner of both the Johnny Vander Meer Award as the club's Most Outstanding Pitcher and the Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award. He led the Major Leagues in innings pitched (240.2) and ranked among the NL pitching leaders in starts (35, T1st), wins (14, T12th), ERA (3.29, 4th), complete games (3, T5th), strikeouts (184, T6th) and opponents' batting average (.243, 8th).

In each of the last 3 seasons Arroyo established career highs in starts, innings pitched and quality starts, and in each of the last 2 seasons he recorded 14 victories and at least 200 innings. On January 19 of last year, while with Boston, he avoided arbitration by signing a 3-year contract through the 2008 season. On March 20 he was acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for OF Wily Mo Pena and cash.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

No dollars announced yet.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:05 PM
WHAT? Man, that's awesome. Two days in a row of good news.

NJReds
02-08-2007, 12:06 PM
Wow...that's a shocker. I thought he wanted out of here.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:06 PM
As I said in the other forum, I'm not sure now is the right time to give him an extention but it does put an end to the "he'll leave for Boston as soon as he can" talk.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:07 PM
Depends on the money... but if it's a similar deal to Harang's, we should all feel pretty good about our chances over the next few years.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
I wonder when Krivsky is going to do something to solidify this team? I mean, we traded Kearns and Lopez away and...oh nevermind!

westofyou
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Krivsky was cited as being a superb contract GM.

Looks like he plus a willing front office is changing the Reds recent history.

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Pending the dollars involved, I love this move. I think these guys feed off of each other. It's been a long time since we've had this type of tandem.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Money might be scary as he would be stupid to sign for anything that would be considered a "bargain" after this off-season.

Be afraid...be very afraid.

If money is right, I'll be happy. But I'm expecting a fall back to Earth this year for BA, so this might have been a better move after this season IMO.

Again, it all depends on the money.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

Cyclone792
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
My initial reaction - without knowing the money - is this is a very solid move. Remember, he's locked up for 2007 and 2008 anyway for a very attractive deal so it wouldn't surprise me if Bronson is getting "paid" a bit in the extension.

Unless it's a ridiculous amount of money though, which I don't think it will be, I'll definitely like it.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

That's what I am scared of. That's a lot of money...and probably too much.

Danny Serafini
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Wow, didn't see this one coming. Glad to see we are getting rid of the going back to Boston talk though.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:13 PM
I worry about Bronson breaking down before Harang, though. Harang's got a sturdier frame. Having said that, with contracts like Milton, and Griffey coming off the books in the future, it makes sense to lock both Harang and Arroyo into contracts. That way, you've got a foundation with which to build. You know Homer isn't far away. That's 3. That leaves two spots that you need someone to either fall into your lap, or come up through the system in the next 3 years. I like those odds better than trying to find 4 starters.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
I think locking him up does the same thing that locking up Harang does...it makes him even more attractive on the trade market.

Look what we have here...Arroyo, Harang and the promise that Bailey offers through 2010...WOW! Talk about a filthy 1 - 2 - 3...WOW!!!

macro
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.

http://rusticavenger2.home.insightbb.com/bestwishes.jpg

I must admit that this shocks me, that I was wrong, and that I like it!

RFS62
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
Outstanding move.

:beerme:

Joseph
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
Wow...that's a shocker.

I'll second that!

flyer85
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
I guess Bronson was mostly hot air when discussing his love of Boston and big city life.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.
I'll take mine tough and dry

Hoosier Red
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.

Two days after signing their No. 1 starter through at least 2010, the Reds made the same move with No. 1A. Right-hander Bronson Arroyo agreed to a two-year extension Thursday with an option for 2011.

That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.

The new deal pushes Arroyo's deal to $33.07 million, including the buyout. It pledged $25 million in new money. The deal is an extension of the three-year deal Arroyo signed with Boston Jan. 19 of last year. It was to pay him $3.8 million this season.

Hard to argue with $33Million over 4 years.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:16 PM
That's what I am scared of. That's a lot of money...and probably too much.

What exactly would be 'too much' money for Bronson? If he gets $12 mill for two more years, that would put him at around, what, $30 million for next four when you add it to his current deal? That doesn't sound bad to me at all. I would imagine the deal works out so that he gets paid around the same total that Harang got...

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:16 PM
Wow, didn't see this one coming. Glad to see we are getting rid of the going back to Boston talk though.

Ha! With the snowfall and cold weather this week, he probably thought it was Boston. And maybe Bob's promising to go back to calling us the Red Stockings or Redlegs just to make him feel more at home. Maybe he'll hang a new sign in from of Music Hall that says Faneuil Hall!

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:18 PM
I don't think those numbers are bad at all when you consider what other teams are paying FA pitchers this offseason.

I'm pumped!

Sea Ray
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

My guess is they sweetened the next two years in which he was underpaid probably through a signing bonus, rather than commiting to huge salaries in the two extended years. Krivsky probably used the principles the NFL uses when they extend young players a year before they're eligible for free agency. Usually these guys are coming off a contract that pays them the league minimum and the carrot that gets their signature is the chance to greatly increase their league minimum year, not necessarily future years

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
I never thought I'd say this, but I hope the Reds start targeting position players in trades, drafts, and free agency in the next 1-2 years.

That doesn't mean that if a stud pitcher falls to them in the draft that I don't want them to draft him, it just means that it'd be nice to get an influx of solid bats into the system to go with the pitching we'll now have for 4 more years.
We need another RH power bat for starters.

Cyclone792
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.

Two days after signing their No. 1 starter through at least 2010, the Reds made the same move with No. 1A. Right-hander Bronson Arroyo agreed to a two-year extension Thursday with an option for 2011.

That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.

The new deal pushes Arroyo's deal to $33.07 million, including the buyout. It pledged $25 million in new money. The deal is an extension of the three-year deal Arroyo signed with Boston Jan. 19 of last year. It was to pay him $3.8 million this season.

Hard to argue with $33Million over 4 years.

Really, IMO, there's a lot more good than bad with this contract extension. Over the next four to five years, it sounds like Arroyo and Harang will be making almost identical money, which I'm fine with.

The plan for the starting rotation is now very clear: Harang and Arroyo are locked up, and the Reds (and everybody) are hoping Bailey fits in for a nice killer threesome in the rotation from 2008-10. There's really a whole lot to love about that and not much to dislike.

Now we need to see some excellent position player and bullpen moves that parallel the rotation's plan. If that falls into place, we could be looking at a nice run from 2008-10.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:22 PM
Oops... sorry, I didn't see the later posts about the numbers. 4 years for 33 million is pretty darn good I think. Certainly doesn't break the bank compared to some of those other recent deals out there.

I'd like to express a tentative 'Way to go, Wayne!' now!

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:22 PM
It's a big move in the fact that Bronson would not have re-upped here if he did not agree with the direction this team was going. He wants to win because that's what he's used to in Boston.

This also puts to rest (at least in my opinion) the sentiment that the Reds have no apparent "plan". Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang would not have been convinced to resign here if there wasn't.

Sea Ray
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.


That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.



I wish it was that simple. If they're healthy, they'll be here for the next 4 years.

membengal
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Wow. A full blown stunner.

Props to WK, ownership, and Arroyo for working together on this. Another good day to be a Reds fan. Lots of good will returning, off of these last two announcements...

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Maybe we should put the straps on Wayne in July and not allow him to make another move until the following January.

All of his moves between January and June, I've liked.

Mitri
02-08-2007, 12:25 PM
Awesome move, totally unexpected. Great week for the Reds.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:25 PM
Have no worries my friends...SPECIAL K is in the house!

I have every bit of faith that he will solidify this team all the way around...

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:26 PM
What exactly would be 'too much' money for Bronson? If he gets $12 mill for two more years, that would put him at around, what, $30 million for next four when you add it to his current deal? That doesn't sound bad to me at all. I would imagine the deal works out so that he gets paid around the same total that Harang got...

$30 million for 4 years is skewed b/c those first 2 are already locked in for a total of $6 million.

Heath
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
I'll take it - I'm personally leery of 4 yr deals for pitchers - but I think this is a good move. Nice job WayneK.

Strikes Out Looking
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
I believe this is another great deal for the Reds, even at 12.5 million a year in 2009-10.

First, salaries for starting pitching won't go down. Guys like Gil Meche and Ted Lilly got 4 year 40+ million dollar contracts for 2007-2010. Neither of these guys have ever had years like Bronson had last year.

Second, while there is the risk that Bronson won't perform at 2006 levels in 2009 or 10 or 11, the Reds balanced that with keeping him happy and the fact that he hasn't shown any arm problems in his career. In fact, he's a good example for not rushing Homer as he has progressively pitched more innings as he has gotten older and hasn't shown any signs of wear and tear. And if he does go down with injuries in the latter part of the career that make him unable to pitch, I'd be willing to bet the Reds have insurance for some of the amount they are on the line for.

Third, this gives the Reds starting rotation the most stability they have had since the Rijo-Browning days. We all remember those days, they were the last time the Reds were contenders every year, and I think their place in the standings had much to do with the health of Rijo-Browning. Adding Homer Bailey to the mix full time in 2008 means from 2008-2010 the Reds can pencil in 3 solid starters.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Reds starting pitching is shaping up to be the top in the NL Central for possibly a long time. While Krivsky isn't responsible for all of it, I give him credit for keeping his eye on this very important (maybe the most important) part of the team.

IslandRed
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
My guess is they sweetened the next two years in which he was underpaid probably through a signing bonus, rather than commiting to huge salaries in the two extended years. Krivsky probably used the principles the NFL uses when they extend young players a year before they're eligible for free agency. Usually these guys are coming off a contract that pays them the league minimum and the carrot that gets their signature is the chance to greatly increase their league minimum year, not necessarily future years

You're probably right. Instead of going 3/3/12/15 (tacking all the new money onto the backend) they probably just tore up the old deal and re-did it with a more gradual escalation.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:33 PM
So did they void the old deal and give him a brand new 4 year deal?

RFS62
02-08-2007, 12:34 PM
I guess Bronson was mostly hot air when discussing his love of Boston and big city life.


Nope. Maybe it was all the people reading into those comments that he wanted out of Cincy who were full of hot air.

Why on earth would anyone be surprised that Bronson had a great time in Boston? I'd be shocked beyond belief if he didn't always have a smile on his face whenever thinking about the ride he had there.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:34 PM
Well, now we know why they extended season ticket package sales into March and why individual game tickets won't start until March.

I'm guessing season ticket packages will start selling a little better after yesterday's and today's news.

Nothing really changed from three days ago to today for 2007, but I still feel a lot better about the Reds than I did three days ago.

Reds Fanatic
02-08-2007, 12:36 PM
Another very good deal for the Reds. Locks up the top 2 starters for the next 4 years. Then when Bailey gets up here I think he will develop into a solid 3rd starter. The Reds may finally be on the road to developing a solid rotation.

pedro
02-08-2007, 12:38 PM
Nice move. Who says Castellini won't open his wallet now?

westofyou
02-08-2007, 12:40 PM
Even this move can bring the Eeyore out of some folks.

Cracks me up.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:42 PM
Another very good deal for the Reds. Locks up the top 2 starters for the next 4 years. Then when Bailey gets up here I think he will develop into a solid 3rd starter. The Reds may finally be on the road to developing a solid rotation.

This isn't the thread for this, but Bailey's ceiling is much higher than number three....

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:45 PM
Before this week, Jimmy Haynes was the last Reds pitcher to recieve an extention, was he not?

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 12:47 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.

http://rusticavenger2.home.insightbb.com/bestwishes.jpg

I must admit that this shocks me, that I was wrong, and that I like it!

Wow.... me too. I was firmly of the belief he was leaving for greener pastures. I guess I should've realized what "green" he was really after. I'm pumped!

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 12:48 PM
Great news again!

I don't think it's an unreasonable guess that (barring unforeseen disasters) by 2009 the Reds will have the best 1-2-3 starters in the National League.

Phhhl
02-08-2007, 12:50 PM
Holy Moses! Fantastic news. Things are really starting to look up. First step in building a winner is retaining the parts that are working.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:51 PM
Great news again!

I don't think it's an unreasonable guess that (barring unforeseen disasters) by 2009 the Reds will have the best 1-2-3 starters in the National League.

Right now, I can see only SF (Zito - Cain - Lincecum) challenging them.

Things do change, though, so I'm not ready to guarantee that we'll have the best 1-2-3 punch in the NL. Having said that, we won't have a bunch of tired retreads in the rotation in those years, either, which is a very welcomed change.

registerthis
02-08-2007, 12:52 PM
AWESOME move. the Harang extension didn't surprise me much, but this was totally unexpected. Fantastic move, again, by Krivsky.

kbrake
02-08-2007, 12:53 PM
Great move. You got to admit its getting better.

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:53 PM
It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Cincinnati Reds could finally have someone win the Cy Young Award in a Reds uniform.

jojo
02-08-2007, 12:54 PM
Nice move. Who says Castellini won't open his wallet now?

Why are you assuming this increases payroll?

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 12:55 PM
This is a total shock.

Mad props to Krivsky for this deal. Two good ones in a row.

IslandRed
02-08-2007, 12:56 PM
Now that I think of it, here's the biggest impact of the extensions of Harang and Arroyo:

Before that, a lot of us were looking at 2008 as a clear dividing line, what with nearly all of the current veterans' contracts being up after that season. There was the sense that if we didn't get in the hunt soon then a teardown and rebuild could commence. And I'm not saying that's an impossibility. But by extending our top two pitchers, the front office is making a clear declaration that they intend to keep the window of opportunity open, and prospects like Bailey, Votto and Bruce are to be added to the core, not just replace the core.

pedro
02-08-2007, 12:58 PM
Why are you assuming this increases payroll?

It may not actually increase payroll this year. I don't know. But it is a significant investment nonetheless.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 01:06 PM
Now that I think of it, here's the biggest impact of the extensions of Harang and Arroyo:

Before that, a lot of us were looking at 2008 as a clear dividing line, what with nearly all of the current veterans' contracts being up after that season. There was the sense that if we didn't get in the hunt soon then a teardown and rebuild could commence. And I'm not saying that's an impossibility. But by extending our top two pitchers, the front office is making a clear declaration that they intend to keep the window of opportunity open, and prospects like Bailey, Votto and Bruce are to be added to the core, not just replace the core.

Exactly. They're keeping the window open, and I'm happy about that.

steig
02-08-2007, 01:11 PM
Great move. let's see the money but I am guessing it will be in the same ball park as harang. Adding bailey sometime this season really gets me excited about the potential of a solid staff for the next several years, especially when I think about Milton leaving after this season.

membengal
02-08-2007, 01:12 PM
I have nothing construtive to add. Just want to note how delighted I have been over the news the last two days. Like a present.

PuffyPig
02-08-2007, 01:17 PM
I'm guessing that its $11 and $12 million for the 2 additional years, with a $2M buyout for the next season, adding $25M in guaranteed money.

guttle11
02-08-2007, 01:20 PM
Well this was a nice little surprise.

Good stuff. The foundation of a title contender is nearly complete. Just need Bailey and Bruce to live up to much of the hype and add some complimentary pieces.

KoryMac5
02-08-2007, 01:24 PM
Great move, always nice to tune in and hear things like this instead of seeing that big black cloud hanging over our heads. I thought when the Harang deal was done they might approach Arroyo, but no idea it would get done this quick. Must be the mood set by Harang's signing got things rolling.

cumberlandreds
02-08-2007, 01:25 PM
This is a nice surprise. I can't believe we are talking about the Reds and being proactive in their signings! Looks like a nice rotation setting up for years to come of Harang,Arroyo,Bailey and maybe Cueto in a couple of years.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 01:27 PM
I'm not sure how I feel about this. I love that Krivsky has indentified what he wants to do and has done it. These past two days seem like he finally has a plan I can see.

But I'm leery of Arroyo getting that much money in 2009 and 2010. If he pitches like the Bronson of last year great - but if its the 2005 Bronson then not so great.

I think its a worthwhile gamble though - I hope this allows him to focus on positional talent in the years to come, cause the Reds are dangerously thin in that area in the minors.

Marc D
02-08-2007, 01:33 PM
I still question Krivsky's judgement in a lot of cases but I have zero doubt in his prowress with the contracts. Fantastic job.

An honest to God, no pixie dust required, ray of hope for a solid 1-2-3 starting rotation in the forseeable future. I'm actually thinking of loosening up the belt and moving up to just midly pessamistic about our chances. ;)

jimbo
02-08-2007, 01:36 PM
Wow, I just now got to check out the news and ESPN.com, and about fell off my chair when I saw this. Did any of us see this one coming? What a great surprise, I am now so ready for spring training to start.

M2
02-08-2007, 01:37 PM
Krivsky's looking to extend the team's competition window, which takes the pressure off of having to push the fast forward button on kids like Bailey, Cueto and Wood.

While the Harang and Arroyo deals don't solve any specific today problems, it's nice to see Krivsky's thinking about the long-term as well. We'll see if both guys can put together four mostly solid years, but I like that Krivsky is going after some stability. Hopefully we can spend the rest of the decade taking 2/5 of the rotation for granted.

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 01:39 PM
I'm guessing that its $11 and $12 million for the 2 additional years, with a $2M buyout for the next season, adding $25M in guaranteed money.

My guess is that they tore up Arroyo's current deal and put something together along the lines of

2007: 6M
2008: 7M
2009: 8M
2010: 10M
$2M buyout for 2011.

harangatang
02-08-2007, 01:42 PM
My guess is that they tore up Arroyo's current deal and put something together along the lines of

2007: 6M
2008: 7M
2009: 8M
2010: 10M
$2M buyout for 2011.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-reds-arroyo&prov=ap&type=lgns

His extension calls for a $2.5 million signing bonus, payable in 2008, and salaries of $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010.

Cincinnati has an $11 million option for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The price of the option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 01:45 PM
I'll take it - I'm personally leery of 4 yr deals for pitchers - but I think this is a good move. Nice job WayneK.at least both Bronson and Aaron are do not have high effort complicated mechanics. They both have easy low effort throwing motions, which bodes well for staying clear of arm problems.

RedFanAlways1966
02-08-2007, 01:53 PM
Great news. Pitching, pitching, pitching. No one can predict the future (injuries, performance); however, based on last year, this is a good signing.

Harang and now Arroyo. I'll take those deals and be happy. Pitching. pitching, pitching.

:thumbup:

remdog
02-08-2007, 01:54 PM
Good move but not a great move.

First of all, kudos to Krivsky for being proactive in retaining his own players. :clap: This will help players understand that if they produce management will be aggressive about rewarding them. Long-term result : good.

OTOH, this does nothing about '07 except to make me think that the Reds are 'mailing it in' and hoping for a long-shot cindarella season by 6-8 guys. The two signings add no one on the field this year that wouldn't have been there anyway. Short-term result: not so good.

IMO, this pretty much says that the plan is not to rush Homer. With Harang and BA tied up for 4 years the Reds can afford to do things right with Bailey. Short and long-term result: good.

Of course, if the Reds tank early and Arroyo reverts to pre-'06 form, it will make moving him at the trade deadline that much tougher. Short-term result: not so good.

All in all, an OK move for the short-term, a better move for the long-term.

Rem

TeamBoone
02-08-2007, 02:03 PM
I wish it was that simple. If they're healthy, they'll be here for the next 4 years.

That can be said for ANY player. If the possibility of injury to a healthy guy is highly considered in every single transaction, no one would ever be signed LT!

I'm happy! Shocked, but happy! :p:

wtg Bronson.

jmcclain19
02-08-2007, 02:06 PM
Right now - with salaries, signing bonuses & buyouts for 2007 added in - here are the numbers.

Reds Committed Payroll (If all option years are exercised)
2007 - $74.5 mil
2008 - $57.7 mil
2009 - $45.5 mil
2010 - $29.5 mil
2011 - $23.8 mil

Shaknb8k
02-08-2007, 02:06 PM
Im not throwing out this year by any means but take a look at '08. $10.65 million for Arroyo and Harang. It will be interesting to see how Dunn's '08 option is handled.

Not only 2007 but also 2008 are both steals for these two players. Once the price goes up a lot for them some of these awful contracts will be off the books ('07-Milton/ '08-Griffey) as well as the farm system should be starting to produce. Call me crazy but I think Krivsky's Plan is starting to become pretty clear.

Gallen5862
02-08-2007, 02:12 PM
This is great news. I love this move. It shows the team and the fans that ownership is willing to spend money to lock in key players.

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 02:13 PM
For what it's worth, using PECOTA's MORP (Marginal value Over Replacement Player), which is meant to be a measurement VORP translated in to free agent dollars....



Salary MORP Difference VORP
2007 $4,125,000 $12,900,000 -$8,775,000 29.2
bonus $2,000,000 $0 +$2,000,000
2008 $3,950,000 $10,725,000 -$6,275,000 23.0
2009 $9,500,000 $8,525,000 +$975,000 16.4
2010 $11,000,000 $6,925,000 +$4,075,000 13.4
buyout $2,000,000 $0 +$2,000,000
Total $32,575,000 $39,075,000 +$6,500,000

2011 $9,000,000 $5,275,000 +$3,725,000 9.7
Total $41,575,000 $44,035,000 +$2,460,000


Basically we're getting a ton of value in the next two seasons and not getting value after that. We still do ok in the end. Of course, the caveats:

- Arroyo wasn't a FA until '09 (when we no longer get a good dea in terms of MORP). In other words. According to PECOTA, we just agreed to pay him more than he would've gotten during the period he was already locked up and more than he will be worth during the extended portion.
- PECOTA uses the possiblity of a devestating injury in its calculations. That is, a prediction of 25 GS is the average of all the possibilities including 0 starts and 35 starts. On AVERAGE, PECOTA works well, but when playing time differs significantly (ie. if Arroyo stays healthy), it's valuations are way off. The confidence you should have in ANY projection should fall off the table after 2-3 years because of the variability of health, if nothing else.
- The true FA market could swing wildly. In a market where Ted Lilly gets $10 MM per, if Arroyo can sustain his value, he's a bargain. But we don't know what the market will be like when he would have hit FA in 2009.
- I don't know if MORP is inflation adjusted. The 11MM he's getting in 2010 is only worth about 9MM in 2007 MLB dollars.

remdog
02-08-2007, 02:16 PM
I think this bodes well for Adam Dunn. With these two deals, the Reds have shown that they will pay players that produce. I look for Dunn to have an improved year in '07 and I think the Reds and Adam have a better chance to get together on a contract than they did two days ago.

Rem

pedro
02-08-2007, 02:21 PM
The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 02:23 PM
I think this bodes wll for Adam Dunn. I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

Plus when the big bucks is due Harang and Arroyo is when Jr and Dunn come off the payroll.

Benihana
02-08-2007, 02:26 PM
Great, great news! I can't recall another bout of back-to-back days of universally pleasing Reds personell news in many years. Harang-Arroyo-Bailey for the next four years sounds too good to be true. Let Lohse, Saarloos, and (gasp) Milton be the stopgaps before the Cuetos and Woods of the world come to bear, and the Wayne's plan is looking good to quite good.

Encarnacion, Phillips, Dunn, Bruce and Votto provide a pretty good core of position players. Now lets get our bullpen on track!

remdog
02-08-2007, 02:33 PM
I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

I can see how you could draw that conclusion, 85. But someone has to be able to hit the ball out of the infield no matter how good your pitching or D is. If Dunn and Jr. are gone it shifts the burden to EE and ???. To figure that Bruce and Votto can walk into the Majors and, along with EE, carry the lineup would be folly. With this move the Reds seem to be saying that they prefer the player they know. (shrug) You could be correct though.

Rem

Heath
02-08-2007, 02:33 PM
Great move. You got to admit its getting better.

I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 02:37 PM
Good move but not a great move.

First of all, kudos to Krivsky for being proactive in retaining his own players. :clap: This will help players understand that if they produce management will be aggressive about rewarding them. Long-term result : good.

OTOH, this does nothing about '07 except to make me think that the Reds are 'mailing it in' and hoping for a long-shot cindarella season by 6-8 guys. The two signings add no one on the field this year that wouldn't have been there anyway. Short-term result: not so good.

IMO, this pretty much says that the plan is not to rush Homer. With Harang and BA tied up for 4 years the Reds can afford to do things right with Bailey. Short and long-term result: good.

Of course, if the Reds tank early and Arroyo reverts to pre-'06 form, it will make moving him at the trade deadline that much tougher. Short-term result: not so good.

All in all, an OK move for the short-term, a better move for the long-term.

Rem

Good point. However, I think you can add to your point about the long term value. As we move in to FA in coming years, they know that the Reds have a core signed long term and perhaps would feel more comfortable about committing themselves to the team. This has been a significant problem for us and these signings should make a good impression.

Caveat Emperor
02-08-2007, 03:04 PM
The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

Yup. In order to turn any franchise around, you have to create a climate that welcomes top talent in.

That was the hope when Griffey came, but the management never followed through and continued the momentum.

pedro
02-08-2007, 03:08 PM
I just read the particulars and Arroyo gets a 2.5 million dollar signing bonus next year so that's the only change over next 2 years.

Jpup
02-08-2007, 03:14 PM
Wow, I never expected this. I guess the poor moutch talk is going to stop. Congrats to Bronson, I guess he like Cincinnati after all. It's time to turn the Reds into something great and Krivsky has made 2 good steps in the last 2 days.

With the Twins, I believe, Krivsky did a lot of the contracts. He's showing how good he is with that now. While I think Arroyo's value will never be higher than it is right now, it's a pretty good deal for both sides.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 03:21 PM
What a good week!!

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :beerme: :clap: :clap: :clap:

kbrake
02-08-2007, 03:23 PM
I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.


Was wondering if anyone would catch that. I dont know when I get good news like this I always tend to break out in song.

Kc61
02-08-2007, 03:23 PM
I hate to ruin my record by being too optimistic, but this is very exciting news. I am delighted that the Reds recognize how rare it is for a (Reds) team to have two starters of this caliber and that both will be around for awhile.

It really does lead you to believe that ownership and Krivsky are, in their own way, trying to build a winner.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 03:27 PM
Was wondering if anyone would catch that. I dont know when I get good news like this I always tend to break out in song.

We have great news for anyone who loves bad news.

Heath
02-08-2007, 03:30 PM
We have great news for anyone who loves bad news.

What would You do if I sang out of tune.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 03:33 PM
What would You do if I sang out of tune.

I would stand up and walk out on you.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 03:34 PM
Was wondering if anyone would catch that. "couldn't get much worse"

BRM
02-08-2007, 03:34 PM
"couldn't get much worse"

Sure it could. He could have traded Adam Dunn for Jon Lieber. :evil:

Jpup
02-08-2007, 03:47 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

BRM
02-08-2007, 03:53 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)


What exactly would the "Krivsky bashers" be wrong about? I see people criticizing bad moves and applauding good moves. I see lots of applauding in this thread.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 03:55 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

Wrong about what?

RedEye
02-08-2007, 03:57 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong.

My name is RedEye, and I am a hard Krivsky basher.

As a hard Krivsky basher, I will now stand up and admit that the guy does know how to negotiate a contract.

I will also admit that he has been working hard and that he does appear, after all, to have some sort of plan (pitching and defense à la Terry Ryan).

I will now sit down and not admit anything else because I don't think we're out of the woods quite yet, folks. It's not bashing Krivsky to say that the jury is still out.

He's shown a good ability to re-sign our own talent for reasonable prices (Dunn, Harang, now Arroyo). Beyond that, he's still got a lot to prove.

TRF
02-08-2007, 03:59 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

I had intended to stay away until mid ST, but the news of the last two days pulled me back in.

It's a good move, but I'll temper it with the following:

As others have pointed out, contracts are what Kriv does well. It's no surprise that he got Harang signed. It is mildly surprising that he got Arroyo to sign an extension. Props to him that he did so.

But...

Both were kind of obvious moves to make. WK hit the jackpot with Arroyo when he traded for him. He way overpitched any expectations anyone had for him, including Arroyo himself I'd bet.

Now stop signing crappy relief pitchers, over the hill, past their prime relief pitchers, and dreck SP.

Then I'll be really happy.

I'm thrilled one of the best 1-2 combos in baseball is locked up for the next 4 years.

I'm not thrilled that he saw Joe Mays, Sunny Kim, Kyle Lohse and Kirk Saarloos as rotation possibilities.

WK did a good thing twice this week. doesn't erase the bad, but signing existing top tiered talent isn't the same as evaluating top tiered talent. 2006 says Arroyo was a fluke deal in terms of acquisition by WK. Name one other pitcher he acquired that really made an impact for more than 3 weeks.

there Jpup... feel better now that one of us WK bashers has spoken up?

BRM
02-08-2007, 04:00 PM
Name one other pitcher he acquired that really made an impact for more than 3 weeks.


Joe Mays had an impact. Granted, it was a negative impact but it an impact nonetheless. ;)

Jpup
02-08-2007, 04:04 PM
What exactly would the "Krivsky bashers" be wrong about? I see people criticizing bad moves and applauding good moves. I see lots of applauding in this thread.

that he has no plan. He obviously does.

M2
02-08-2007, 04:21 PM
that he has no plan. He obviously does.

And that plan is?

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:22 PM
And that plan is?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same
But the plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been
And it makes me think of everyone
And the cause of this is evident
But the remedy cannot be found
Cause it's so well hidden
This history lesson doesn't make any sense
In any less than ten thousand year increments
Of common sense

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:25 PM
And that plan is?

build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No..chicks dig the long ball...and 10-9 games are fun.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Will it work? I don't know. As much as fans (myself included at times) clamor for this, that, or the other....KrivDog stays the course of HIS plan.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:28 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Every animal has a backbone, if baseball was an animal then defense would be its backbone.

Winning teams run, and you need a backbone to run.

But first you have to take a step forward.

Benihana
02-08-2007, 04:28 PM
Thank you Dan Wilson, Bobby Ayala, and Reggie Sanders!

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:29 PM
Every animal has a backbone, if baseball was an animal then defense would be its backbone.

Winning teams run, and you need a backbone to run.

But first you have to take a step forward.

I think this is a step forward.....the package isn't complete yet, but I think it's a step forward.

Chip R
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
And that plan is?


Isn't it obvious?

1. Collect old relief pitchers
2. ???
3. Profit

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
Just saying "pitching and defense" is facile and explains nothing.

Krivsky's plan, as I see it, is to put together a core of players who can challenge for honors beginning in 2008 and more seriously in 2009-11. The resignings of Harang and Arroyo clearly indicate a desire to create a window during which the current ML core (Harang, Arroyo, Dunn if re-signed, Encarnacion, maybe Coffey and Phillips) mesh with our highest-rated prospects (Votto, Bailey, Bruce, Cueto).

Before the signings of Harang and Arroyo this was in no way evident.

If this is the aim, then I'm all for it. But it still does not justify tying up as much money as the club has recently in old relief pitchers, bench players who can't hit, and Kyle freaking Lohse. Those moves make me question whether Krivsky will be able to identify the complementary pieces to plug in if the above plan comes to fruition.

fisch11
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
I was stoked the other day that we would have Harang and Arroyo for 2 more years together, now it's 4. Homer comes up and we have a solid front 3 in the rotation. Now fix the bullpen.

NYMoose
02-08-2007, 04:34 PM
And that plan is?

Maybe he is actually Fred Tuttle - "A Man with a Plan"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Tuttle

M2
02-08-2007, 04:34 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Hmm, I think if I were building a team around pitching and defense and I were the Reds GM, I'd be trying to bring in more young arms so that the team might, you know, actually pitch well as a whole. Extending Harang and Arroyo is a good idea and it buys the club more time to put itself together, but the Reds literally might need to find another 8-10 pitchers to go with them (near-term and long-term).

I'd probably also look into finding a corner OF with a good glove and perhaps a young catcher with some unrealized promise. I for sure wouldn't allow Ken Griffey Jr. to patrol CF.

I give Krivsky credit for having done some things on the pitching and defense front when his immediate predecessor let those things go to pot, but I think it's little more than lip service to call it a full-fledged plan at the moment.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:37 PM
Hmm, I think if I were building a team around pitching and defense and I were the Reds GM, I'd be trying to bring in more young arms so that the team might, you know, actually pitch well as a whole.

I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

BRM
02-08-2007, 04:39 PM
Is the 2007 Reds defense that much better than last year's version? I see Gonzo but what else has Wayne done that would constitute a defensive upgrade? I know moving Griffey out of CF would be a BIG sign that he's serious about improving that area. We'll find out if that happens in the next couple of months.

M2
02-08-2007, 04:40 PM
Maybe he is actually Fred Tuttle - "A Man with a Plan"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Tuttle

Tuttle may have been the greatest politician of the 20th century.

Yachtzee
02-08-2007, 04:48 PM
I think its a great move!

Also, I wonder how much the fact that the Reds seem very willing to promote his music career played in his mind. I think the biggest change I've seen from the Bob Castellini regime is a willingness to promote the players beyond the traditional game-day give aways.

TRF
02-08-2007, 04:51 PM
I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

Ahem. Dan O'Brien says hi.

And that's not praising DanO, but it's the same plan.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:53 PM
Tuttle may have been the greatest politician of the 20th century.


Tuttle died of a heart attack after a day spent digging potatoes, at his home in Tunbridge, Vermont. He was buried in his overalls, with a pen in his pocket for autograph signing and a can of Moxie by his side.

The Moxie was probably included to kill him in case he really wasn't dead when he was buried.

Ltlabner
02-08-2007, 04:54 PM
Exactly. They're keeping the window open, and I'm happy about that.

Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

Two good days in a row!

remdog
02-08-2007, 04:57 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

So, let's look at that. What pitchers has he added for '07 that put a song in your heart? I look at the list and I sing a dirge.

How about defense? Sure, Gonzo is better than Clayton but his shadow (Castro) was already signed. Other than that, I haven't seen any defensive 'upgrades'. It's obvious that he intends to give Conine a lot of playing time in the OF and at 1st base and he's sub-par at either spot. He traded a better defensive catcher (LaRue) in order to go with a tandem of Ross and Valentin which would certainly be below league average.

Mind you, from my viewpoint this is all predicated on my opinion that the '07 division title is there for the taking. If you don't care about or think the Reds can win in '07 then these moves make some sense. But one more solid+ starter makes the Reds the betting choice, IMO. And Wayne could have had that for less than the $23M he spent on dreck and still have done the deals of the last two days!!

Sometimes you happen upon a unique window of opportunity and you have to take advantage of that! I believe that, in this division, '07 is one of those rare opportunities. If you don't share my viewpoint I completely understand why my rants and rambleings make no sense to you and I'm fine with that. (shrug)

I simply think that we missed a terrific opportunity to jump in front of the pack in '07. And now, with the signings of the last two days, that advantage of winning in '07 would have been even greater.

JMO.

Rem

Will M
02-08-2007, 05:13 PM
Is the 2007 Reds defense that much better than last year's version? I see Gonzo but what else has Wayne done that would constitute a defensive upgrade? I know moving Griffey out of CF would be a BIG sign that he's serious about improving that area. We'll find out if that happens in the next couple of months.

EE and Phillips are both expected to be better defensively with a year under their belts.
They both seem to be hard worker and have the skill sets to be good defenders.

Moving Griffey out of CF will be HUGE. He just doesn't have the range that Freel and Deno do.

M2
02-08-2007, 05:13 PM
I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

While these moves do give the Reds a much better long-term profile, I still think Krivsky's mostly reactive as a GM. While he's made some mistakes and I'm completely underwhelmed by his offseason acquisitions, I think he's an all right GM. He's good with contracts, even when he's brought in some players I'd rather see the team avoid they haven't been on albatross deals. He reacts quickly when he's got a perceived need or when an opportunity presents itself. He does seem to routinely take stock of his team in order to determine what it needs. Most of all, he seems to have a good disposition - nononsense approach, willing to try something different, might even be one of those guys who'll learn things on the job.

Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

corkedbat
02-08-2007, 05:22 PM
Great moves!

I'd love to see them somehow pickup a solid young lefty to stick in with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey, then get a bat, closer or something (anything) useful for Milton and or Lohse and maybe a spare BP arm or two.


Locking up Arroyo is a solid move to me. If nothing else, youhave him happy and appreciated for to more year and then he should be still attractive (unless theres a major injury) in a couple of years - about the time that Cueto and/or Wood are about ready to come on line.

I still get the feeling that there will be one more semi-significant acquisition before the season starts for some reason.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 05:23 PM
Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 05:32 PM
I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

Kc61
02-08-2007, 05:49 PM
Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.


Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

I think Krivsky is a good strategic planner. But he has a longer-term horizon than some would like.

But for many of us, the emphasis on short-term results was based on the "window" of having two good starters for a year or two. Now, with these signings, you start to get the picture of a longer term plan.

Obviously, more starting pitchers are needed as is a closer. But with a somewhat longer time horizon, you can see a rotation shaping up. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey plus two. Obviously, there will have to be focus on the two and a closer.

Defense will be emphasized. Offense is the last piece, with no big financial commitments to offense until the pitching and defense is solidified. Therefore, you get signings like Conine, rather than a more expensive righty bat.

As for the draft, looks to me like Krivsky wants a lot of picks, a lot of depth. Not going so much for stars (which is hit or miss) but going for depth with a lot of trading chips.

I think it is a plan. Execution? We'll see.

Aronchis
02-08-2007, 05:49 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 05:53 PM
I think this is extraordinary. Everything good that anybody has said, I basically agree with. To the bad points, I say: trade value. I hope that doesn't happen, but it's there if it needs to be.

No deal in baseball should be made on a psychological basis, but psychologically, the effects of this are huge. Administratively, the front office has an enormous monkey off itsr back. To not have to worry about the front 2 starting rotations spots (barring injury) is huge. The strengths are solidified. Now they can truly take all their time and money to address the weaknesses. Psychologically for the players: Harang and Arroyo are set, they can do their jobs. The rest of the players are shown that the organization is committed to a long-term, winning team, and I believe that players like Dunn stand to step up to that. Players outside the organization are shown that two of the top NL pitchers -- who stood to make a good deal of FA money in this market -- want to pitch in Cincinnati long-term. That means something.

I swear, I spend an awful lot of days cursing myself for being so emotionally invested in a baseball team -- and a baseball team that has been largely awful most of the time I've been following it to boot. Most of the time I honestly think it's damaging to me. It's time consuming and it's draining, and I wonder if my life would really be that different without baseball in it. And days like this, I understand. In fact I wonder how anyone with great capacity for joy in their souls can afford not to follow baseball.

Marc D
02-08-2007, 06:00 PM
Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.


As always, insightful and spot on.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 06:01 PM
When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

When your name is John Schurholtz?

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:05 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.




You're spoiling the party :) :party:

pedro
02-08-2007, 06:07 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

I think you're going to be proven wrong about Arroyo. Very wrong.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 06:08 PM
I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

I wish they wouldn't wait that long, or put that much pressure on Bailey. Unfortunately, looking at the crop of free agent SPs for 2008, I think it becomes a #4 starter by default. The only one's in the Reds' price range figure to be Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook. Jennings would be fine, but Westbrook is a #4 at best.

StillFunkyB
02-08-2007, 06:10 PM
This is wonderful news.

Keep it comin Wayne!

reds44
02-08-2007, 06:33 PM
How can anybody say Krivsky has no plan anymore? It so obvious it's all about pitching and defense. He preached it last year, and now he's doing it this year. With Harang and Arroyo locked up for 4 years, you have a better one to punch then we have seen in Cincinnati then we have seen for a long time. Homer, at worst, will be up here next year and if he is half of what we expect him to be that is a great 1-2-3 punch. Then he has guys like Loshe and Saarloos who are still young and have some upside. I like Saarloos more then Loshe, but still if either one of them is even decent then that's 4 solid guys. You can then decide if the other is worhty of the 5th spot, or you can see if Cueto is the guy.

Then look at his offense. He went out at gave 14 million to one of the best defensive SS in baseball (if not the best), and last year he traded for Phillips and in less then a year he has set up one of the best DP combos and baseball. Combine that with moving Griffey out of CF (which will happen) and with Ryan Denorfia (yes, you like that?) in CF, you have one of the best defenses up the middle in baseball. Also, as many trade rumors as you hear about Dunn and as much as you here about EE's defense, they are both still here. He has kept a real core of young, sluggers to hit balls into the moon deck. He didn't WANT a lineup full of sluggers who strikeout alot and play bad defense, so he traded Lopez and Kearns for pitching. I'm not going to tell you he got good value in return, but I think Majewski and Bray will be solid relievers for this team. He felt the need to unload some sluggers, and if you can't trade Griffey I would much rather have EE/Dunn then Lopez/Kearns. And as for as many people on this board wanting Griffey out of CF, I'd be glad Kearns is gone if I was you. If he was Griffey would be in CF.

Then Krivsky hasn't traded anything of much value out of his farm system. Bruce, Bailey, Votto, and Cueto all are not going to be touched. That is the core of the farm system, and all guys that will be in Cincy in the next 2-3 years. Now, I am not going to tell you he had the greatest draft in the world his first year, but I am also not going to say he can't draft either after that year. If Stubbs can eventually come up, hit decently and play a GG CF, that is what Wayne is looking for.

I think people can't look past THE TRADE and all the bullpen guys he has gone after. As for the trade, I am not going to make an excuse for it. It's a trade that can not and should not have been made. However, Krivsky has made alot more good trade then bad ones. Say what you want about how Ross and Hatteberg and to a lesser extent Phillips are due for down years, but until I see it those were all very solid moves as they stand right now. When you look at the crappy bullpen he started out with (and the crappy starting staff) Krivsky had to get alot of arms. He is still looking for the right combinations of guys to fit in. Also, say want you want about the old guys like Coninie and Hatteberg he signed, but those are strictly fill in guys until younger prospects get up here. The thing I like about Wayne is he didn't hand out abunch of stupid contracts this offseason, but in my mind he undoubtly improved the team.

Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:37 PM
By the way, Feb. 8th, 2006, Wayne Krivsky was hired as Reds GM.

Arroyo was his first move, I believe. How appropriate. He's now extended.

Wheelhouse
02-08-2007, 06:37 PM
Guys, one thing that has not been mentioned about the club's position on Bailey--it's really the smart position to have. Privately, I bet the plan is to bring him north after ST, in the rotation THIS YEAR. Publicly, they are saying AAA so that if he doesn't do well in ST, it's not a failure if he goes to Louisville, because that was the plan in the first place. What would the Reds gain by saying they expect Homer in the rotation this year? Nothing. All he could do by the end of ST is fail. By saying AAA the only direction he can go is up.

TRF
02-08-2007, 06:42 PM
Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.


Jeff Conine
Juan Castro
A slew of over 38 years old relievers, some who were NEVER very good signed to MULTI year contracts.
A bizarre infatuation with a guy that has never succeeded above A+ that has to be on the roster all year long.
Trading away your BEST defensive catcher.
More than likely starting Kirk Saarloos. ugh.


Oh, and his best prospects were picked by the previous GM as his first draft flat out sucked.

He signed his two best pitchers. I would expect no less from ANY GM!

Tom Servo
02-08-2007, 06:45 PM
Next up: Signing Milton long-term :evil:

KronoRed
02-08-2007, 06:48 PM
Next up: Signing Milton long-term :evil:

Hey he puts a decent season together it wouldn't shock me ;)

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 06:50 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

BRM
02-08-2007, 06:52 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.

RedsBaron
02-08-2007, 06:53 PM
I have the same reaction to Arroyo's signing as I did to Harang's signing: :thumbup: --this doesn't mean that the moves will pay off, there are no guarantees and any long term contract is a gamble, but, under present conditions, these signings are gambles I would make-so:thumbup: .

pedro
02-08-2007, 06:53 PM
I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.


It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:55 PM
I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.

That is yet to be determined.

:D

BRM
02-08-2007, 06:56 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

I agree it's a bit better than last year. It's still not a good one IMO but it is better.

M2
02-08-2007, 06:58 PM
I think it is a plan. Execution? We'll see.

So signing Harang and Arroyo, assuming Bailey's a given, getting three more pitchers somehow and maybe doing something about the offense is what you call a plan?

It's what I call reactive GMing. I don't have a problem with that per se, but it's a "let's see if everything breaks our way" gambit. What I don't see Wayne Krivsky doing is loading for bear like, say, the Marlins.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 07:01 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

How do you know that pedro?

If history has taught us anything its that bullpen arms are highly volatile from one year to the next - its just as possible that the bullpen could once again implode.

I'm not saying its going to happen, but it could. Weathers could put up an era over 5, as could Stanton, and Cormier, and Majewski, and Coffey. In short, its not like we have one sure thing in the bullpen - not one. So to say its definitely improved is wrong. It might be improved, hell it might be an 85% chance its improved, but bullpen arms, especially non-dominant ones, are volatile.

TRF
02-08-2007, 07:03 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.


Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:05 PM
By the way, Feb. 8th, 2006, Wayne Krivsky was hired as Reds GM.

Arroyo was his first move, I believe. How appropriate. He's now extended.
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:06 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?
And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

pedro
02-08-2007, 07:06 PM
How do you know that pedro?

If history has taught us anything its that bullpen arms are highly volatile from one year to the next - its just as possible that the bullpen could once again implode.

I'm not saying its going to happen, but it could. Weathers could put up an era over 5, as could Stanton, and Cormier, and Majewski, and Coffey. In short, its not like we have one sure thing in the bullpen - not one. So to say its definitely improved is wrong. It might be improved, hell it might be an 85% chance its improved, but bullpen arms, especially non-dominant ones, are volatile.

depth. like you i expect a couple/few of these guys to wash out, but despite the tepidity of the individual pitchers, there is quite a lot more depth at this point than there was going into spring training last year. don't underestimate the value of consistent mediocrity.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:13 PM
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 07:13 PM
And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.

TC81190
02-08-2007, 07:14 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.


And I still say Shafer needs to be here, up in the big league pen.


Stupid Saarlooses...

pedro
02-08-2007, 07:15 PM
Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Brian Shackelford pitched all of 16.1 innings last year putting up an ERA of 7.61 and is still on the 40 man IIRC. Yeah, he's good against lefties, but he's also still an option so I honestly don't know what the problem is. Plus he sucks against RH so he's just a LOOGY.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 07:19 PM
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

I'm pretty sure this is correct too.

BTW the Sporting News's baseball preview issue has Adam Dunn listed as one of the premier free agents after 2007 :bang:

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:25 PM
Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.
Those are all good reasons for getting rid of LaRue. I'm just saying that if people are claiming that The Plan is about pitching and defense, and if "up the middle" is where such a team would want top-flight gloves, yet we're going to see Ross/Valentin/Moeller at catcher, then maybe The Plan is as much a mirage as The Trade's payflex defense is.

Hey, I like these latest signings. I like that they reward achievement, maintain some fan-friendly roster continuity, and extend the team's window of opportunity. I'm just not convinced that these validate the presence of any plan beyond "sign stopgaps until some youngsters hopefully pan out."

lollipopcurve
02-08-2007, 07:26 PM
The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

The plan is clear -- invest in pitching. Defense -- signing Gonzalez, asking Griffey to consider a move to a corner spot., etc., is also clearly a priority, as Krivsky has said it would be. For me, that's sufficient evidence of a plan at work. For those who seem to be saying a plan constitutes being able to strengthen your team in the optimal manner in every area of possible weakness in a single year (i.e, let's get a Detroit-style bullpen tout de suite, thanks, or let's get us a #3 starter chop chop), I'd say there's no GM who can have that kind of plan and accomplish it. If there is such a GM, who is it?

Will M
02-08-2007, 07:28 PM
How can anybody say Krivsky has no plan anymore? It so obvious it's all about pitching and defense. He preached it last year, and now he's doing it this year. With Harang and Arroyo locked up for 4 years, you have a better one to punch then we have seen in Cincinnati then we have seen for a long time. Homer, at worst, will be up here next year and if he is half of what we expect him to be that is a great 1-2-3 punch. Then he has guys like Loshe and Saarloos who are still young and have some upside. I like Saarloos more then Loshe, but still if either one of them is even decent then that's 4 solid guys. You can then decide if the other is worhty of the 5th spot, or you can see if Cueto is the guy.

Then look at his offense. He went out at gave 14 million to one of the best defensive SS in baseball (if not the best), and last year he traded for Phillips and in less then a year he has set up one of the best DP combos and baseball. Combine that with moving Griffey out of CF (which will happen) and with Ryan Denorfia (yes, you like that?) in CF, you have one of the best defenses up the middle in baseball. Also, as many trade rumors as you hear about Dunn and as much as you here about EE's defense, they are both still here. He has kept a real core of young, sluggers to hit balls into the moon deck. He didn't WANT a lineup full of sluggers who strikeout alot and play bad defense, so he traded Lopez and Kearns for pitching. I'm not going to tell you he got good value in return, but I think Majewski and Bray will be solid relievers for this team. He felt the need to unload some sluggers, and if you can't trade Griffey I would much rather have EE/Dunn then Lopez/Kearns. And as for as many people on this board wanting Griffey out of CF, I'd be glad Kearns is gone if I was you. If he was Griffey would be in CF.

Then Krivsky hasn't traded anything of much value out of his farm system. Bruce, Bailey, Votto, and Cueto all are not going to be touched. That is the core of the farm system, and all guys that will be in Cincy in the next 2-3 years. Now, I am not going to tell you he had the greatest draft in the world his first year, but I am also not going to say he can't draft either after that year. If Stubbs can eventually come up, hit decently and play a GG CF, that is what Wayne is looking for.

I think people can't look past THE TRADE and all the bullpen guys he has gone after. As for the trade, I am not going to make an excuse for it. It's a trade that can not and should not have been made. However, Krivsky has made alot more good trade then bad ones. Say what you want about how Ross and Hatteberg and to a lesser extent Phillips are due for down years, but until I see it those were all very solid moves as they stand right now. When you look at the crappy bullpen he started out with (and the crappy starting staff) Krivsky had to get alot of arms. He is still looking for the right combinations of guys to fit in. Also, say want you want about the old guys like Coninie and Hatteberg he signed, but those are strictly fill in guys until younger prospects get up here. The thing I like about Wayne is he didn't hand out abunch of stupid contracts this offseason, but in my mind he undoubtly improved the team.

Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.

I agree.

I am thrilled that Wayne has not traded a single top prospect from the farm system and yet has worked his you know what off improving the team.

MrCinatit
02-08-2007, 07:29 PM
Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

I believe Dan0's ultimate downfall came from sitting on his hands and not showing any ability to sign Dunn. All Dan had been able to accomplish was to sign the younger players to a series of one-year contracts. Except for LaRue.
It took Wayne to come in and get the Dunn contract dunn.

Very nice move, btw. 12 million now is very reasonable - 12 million five years from now could be a freaking steal.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:37 PM
His downfall was also trading Casey for garbage.

Castellini didn't like that.

Sabo Fan
02-08-2007, 07:39 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds, or basically duplicates his 2005 season, with a small improvement because he'll be in the NL. I'm concerned about his struggles in July and August of last year as an indicator that he may either wear down or that NL hitters had adjusted to his stuff. With Harang, it's obvious that he's had success for a few years in this league while with Arroyo I'm wondering if 2006 is an outlier and he'll just regress to the mean next year and the Reds will be stuck with a guy who isn't much more than a #4 starter making #2 starter money.

Simply put, it's not the worst move in the world, but Arroyo had a real nice deal for the next two years from a team standpoint, one that made him very marketable should the desire arise to move him. Now, should he not perform up to expectations in 2007 he all of a sudden becomes extremely hard to move. Personally, I would have cashed him in this winter when teams were spending wildly on pitching mediocrity.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:43 PM
While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds, or basically duplicates his 2005 season, with a small improvement because he'll be in the NL. I'm concerned about his struggles in July and August of last year as an indicator that he may either wear down or that NL hitters had adjusted to his stuff.

His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:45 PM
For me, these signings are the final nail in the coffin of that old Lindner mentality this board can't let go of. You know, the one that claims, "this cheap team is too cheap to compete because it's cheap."

Two words that abruptly stopped coming out of the front office once Castellini took over are "small" and "market." He stated last year that there was enough money to bump the payroll at the deadline if need be, which the previous regime would never have contemplated. And this offseason he's added, what, $15 million to the payroll? He was perfectly content to eat the contracts of people like Womack, White, Hammond, and Williams without so much as a comment, and then quietly spent millions on LaRue's going away card. No one from the front office opined that two $50,000 Rule 5 picks were "big investments," which certainly would have been the case a few years ago. Nearly every draft pick got signed without any fuss at all. And now we have a good, young core locked up for years to come.

If nothing else, these signings signal that Bob is a man of his word, and that the days of crying poor are gone. We can compete. Or, if we can't, the reason has nothing to do with money.

reds44
02-08-2007, 07:54 PM
Jeff Conine
Juan Castro
A slew of over 38 years old relievers, some who were NEVER very good signed to MULTI year contracts.
A bizarre infatuation with a guy that has never succeeded above A+ that has to be on the roster all year long.
Trading away your BEST defensive catcher.
More than likely starting Kirk Saarloos. ugh.


Oh, and his best prospects were picked by the previous GM as his first draft flat out sucked.

He signed his two best pitchers. I would expect no less from ANY GM!
What about those points? How do they fit into the plan?

Platoon partner with Hatte until Votto takes over full time.
Defensive replacement who has a knack for getting big hits.
Rule 5 pick, how do you know he will be on the roster all year long. What if he is and suceeds?
Oh you like LaRue but don't get Castro? LaRue sucked last year and had a bad attitude.
See my post about prospects. How do you know his suck?
Boo ground pitchers. It's his fault he had 1 SP when he came here?

CrackerJack
02-08-2007, 07:59 PM
Yes good for some longer term stability around these parts for once.

I hope part of his contract stipulated that he could no longer force his bad cover band/music onto the general public from here on out within the greater Cincinnati area. That would just be icing.

Caveat Emperor
02-08-2007, 08:00 PM
Simply put, it's not the worst move in the world, but Arroyo had a real nice deal for the next two years from a team standpoint, one that made him very marketable should the desire arise to move him. Now, should he not perform up to expectations in 2007 he all of a sudden becomes extremely hard to move. Personally, I would have cashed him in this winter when teams were spending wildly on pitching mediocrity.

If you don't have a ton of great pitching depth in the minors (which the Reds don't), don't have a surplus of position player talent in the majors to trade (which the Reds don't), and don't have a great free agent market to spend your money in (which the Reds didn't), then you've got to play the odds on moves like this. It's a risk that Arroyo won't live up to his 2006 performance and there's a chance that the Reds bid against themselves and bought high, but its a risk worth taking when weighed against the odds of getting equivalent or better return on prospects who are completely unproven at the ML level.

Plus, there's a very real PR aspect to these two moves (locking in Harang, locking in Arroyo) -- its a signal to the fans that the team is serious about competing in the near future and a signal to players that Cincinnati takes care of it's own. It sends a message, to both free agents and players in the Reds system, that Cincinnati is playing to win and will spend the money to reward players who contribute to building a winning club. No more stories about trades for guys like Scott Rolen being nixed because the finances didn't work. These are the kinds of moves that change attitudes about franchises; they're the kinds of moves that I expect out of St. Louis, as opposed to the previous regimes that played straight of the Pittsburgh Pirates playbook.

Don't underestimate that aspect of this move either.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 08:02 PM
While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds,

Drop off is probable, Arroyo rocked last year his Runs Saved Above Average is tied for 7th best in modern Reds history, if he drops to 1/2 that he'll have be where Harang was this year in RSAA.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
MODERN (1900-)

GAMES STARTED >= 25

RSAA YEAR RSAA GS
1 Dolf Luque 1923 66 37
2 Bucky Walters 1939 58 36
3 Noodles Hahn 1902 47 36
4 Dolf Luque 1925 45 36
5 Jose Rijo 1993 44 36
6 Bucky Walters 1940 42 36
T7 Ewell Blackwell 1950 41 32
T7 Bronson Arroyo 2006 41 35
T9 Bob Purkey 1962 37 37
T9 Ewell Blackwell 1947 37 33
T9 Noodles Hahn 1904 37 34

KronoRed
02-08-2007, 08:08 PM
His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

September callups maybe...

RFS62
02-08-2007, 08:09 PM
For me, these signings are the final nail in the coffin of that old Lindner mentality this board can't let go of. You know, the one that claims, "this cheap team is too cheap to compete because it's cheap."

Two words that abruptly stopped coming out of the front office once Castellini took over are "small" and "market." He stated last year that there was enough money to bump the payroll at the deadline if need be, which the previous regime would never have contemplated. And this offseason he's added, what, $15 million to the payroll? He was perfectly content to eat the contracts of people like Womack, White, Hammond, and Williams without so much as a comment, and then quietly spent millions on LaRue's going away card. No one from the front office opined that two $50,000 Rule 5 picks were "big investments," which certainly would have been the case a few years ago. Nearly every draft pick got signed without any fuss at all. And now we have a good, young core locked up for years to come.

If nothing else, these signings signal that Bob is a man of his word, and that the days of crying poor are gone. We can compete. Or, if we can't, the reason has nothing to do with money.


Killer post

:beerme:

Sabo Fan
02-08-2007, 08:12 PM
His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

I'll agree that his September ERA was impressive, and while I don't know who he pitched against at the end of the season off the top of my head, you're much more likely to find teams who have brought guys up when rosters expanded or have just plain packed it in. Many a September stars have turned into fools gold the following year.


Plus, there's a very real PR aspect to these two moves (locking in Harang, locking in Arroyo) -- its a signal to the fans that the team is serious about competing in the near future and a signal to players that Cincinnati takes care of it's own. It sends a message, to both free agents and players in the Reds system, that Cincinnati is playing to win and will spend the money to reward players who contribute to building a winning club. No more stories about trades for guys like Scott Rolen being nixed because the finances didn't work. These are the kinds of moves that change attitudes about franchises; they're the kinds of moves that I expect out of St. Louis, as opposed to the previous regimes that played straight of the Pittsburgh Pirates playbook.

I don't dispute that this type of deal can change attitudes about a franchise, but the fastest way to do that is to simply win. This isn't a move that made the Reds better as a team. Arroyo was going to be here for two more years at reasonable numbers and he couldn't really do anything about that. To me, spending $25 million on a guy who at the end of the deal likely won't be much more than a #4 starter is a high price to merely change perceptions.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 08:15 PM
I'll agree that his September ERA was impressive, and while I don't know who he pitched against at the end of the season off the top of my head, you're much more likely to find teams who have brought guys up when rosters expanded or have just plain packed it in. Many a September stars have turned into fools gold the following year.





I know the Cardinals, Astros, Giants, and Padres were part of it....those teams were in a playoff hunt...they weren't playing minor leaguers for the most part.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 08:18 PM
I don't dispute that this type of deal can change attitudes about a franchise, but the fastest way to do that is to simply win. This isn't a move that made the Reds better as a team. Arroyo was going to be here for two more years at reasonable numbers and he couldn't really do anything about that. To me, spending $25 million on a guy who at the end of the deal likely won't be much more than a #4 starter is a high price to merely change perceptions.

I think your point is that it did not make the Reds better as a team right now. But it certainly frees the front office up to focus their energy on other moves that will. And it gives them a longer window in which to do this. It did not directly make the team better, but it did indirectly, in opening the door. The only move that will make the Reds better RIGHT NOW is basically spending a lot of cash on a free agent or a trade. The free agent pool was weak and overpriced this year. Trades cannot be predicted and sometimes it takes time to hit on a good one.

I really don't see how anything wrong with this move whatsoever. Quite the opposite in fact. But I always thought Arroyo had a higher ceiling than he was showing in Pittsburgh and, at times, in Boston. I expect him to come down slightly from last year, but I'm much more in the camp that last year was more indicative of the pitcher he actually is than 2005.

jojo
02-08-2007, 08:32 PM
His downfall was also trading Casey for garbage.

Castellini didn't like that.

That was actually an awesome trade for the Reds.

Chip R
02-08-2007, 08:34 PM
I can understand why some would want to trade Arroyo after his "career season" last year. It may have been the smart thing to do. It may have been what Billy Beane would have done. Bt I don't think it would have been a good idea. We may disagree about the manager, the GM, the owner, Adam Dunn, Marty, whatever. But I think we can all agree that the Reds Achilles Heel for quite some time has been the lack of quality starting pitching. They haven't been able to develop it, trade for it or sign it on a consistant basis. So why trade a quality starting pitcher? You may be able to get prospects for Arroyo but they better be pitching prospects. And even if they are pitching prospects, there's no guarantee they will be as good as Arroyo. Brandon Claussen was Exhibit A. Now if the Reds had been able to develop young starting pitching on a consistant basis, then I might agree that trading him would be a good idea. If you get rid of Arroyo, you only have one quality starter. Now I'm no math genius but I think two quality starters are much better than one and some maybes.

M2
02-08-2007, 08:39 PM
The plan is clear -- invest in pitching. Defense -- signing Gonzalez, asking Griffey to consider a move to a corner spot., etc., is also clearly a priority, as Krivsky has said it would be. For me, that's sufficient evidence of a plan at work. For those who seem to be saying a plan constitutes being able to strengthen your team in the optimal manner in every area of possible weakness in a single year (i.e, let's get a Detroit-style bullpen tout de suite, thanks, or let's get us a #3 starter chop chop), I'd say there's no GM who can have that kind of plan and accomplish it. If there is such a GM, who is it?

To me it's a statement of current conditions more than a plan.

I agree that you can't expect the whole checklist ticked off in a single year, but by the same token you can't expect to hit a bullseye everytime you address the checklist. Krivsky's collected old stopgaps (if that) in the pen rather than seek out more guys who might fit that Detroit-style mold or who might grow into that #3 starter role.

Desire beyond reason to build that sort of bullpen probably is the explanation for The Trade, but that gets us back to strategic planning. Krivsky didn't have the capital (in terms of talent) to send like he did on Bray and Majewski. Krivsky missed the bullseye (Bray's got upside, but Majewski's your classic pitch-to-contact reliever) and it cost him the players who were his best bets to make a chop-chop move for anything on the shopping list.

How does he turn what he's got into what he needs? What are his options if everything doesn't go absolutely right? Because I can guarantee you many things will go wrong.

I think it's good that Krivsky's addressed the team keystone defense and the pitching (though he's still got a looooong way to go). Yet those are things that any sensible GM would have addressed. They were/are glaring needs. They had/have to be dealt with.

What I don't see from Krivsky is the deeper stuff. He's dealing with the roster, not swinging the organization. He probably figures that if he gets the first one relatively right, he'll have time to accomplish the second. That's certainly the way the industry tends to operate. The problem with it is, if the roster fails him then he doesn't have the organization to fall back on.

M2
02-08-2007, 08:41 PM
That was actually an awesome trade for the Reds.

Yes, I often find myself getting wistful over the meaningless contract savings it created. Good times.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 08:43 PM
Breaking news: BRONSON SAID NICE THINGS ABOUT CINCINNATI. He says he likes it as well as any city in which he's played.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070208&content_id=1797907&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

(note: this is tongue-in-cheek, as I've never heard Arroyo say anything bad about Cincinnati, except that no one goes to games, and he can beat people with a stick about that for all I care.)

jojo
02-08-2007, 08:55 PM
And this offseason he's added, what, $15 million to the payroll?

Actually payroll is sitting at about $70M. That means the Reds added roughly $9M over where it was last summer. But that's a bit misleading because roughly $6M that increase went to raises to players already under contract so it wasn't a sign of the coffers being opened up to go get additional FAs.


If nothing else, these signings signal that Bob is a man of his word, and that the days of crying poor are gone. We can compete. Or, if we can't, the reason has nothing to do with money.

These signings do not signify that there will be payroll increases in the future. The two extensions do not add payroll over the next two seasons.

To understand why someone might suggest this, consider the ledger sheet for the years where Harang and Arroyo get their raises.

Below are the big contractual obligations that will come off of the books or could be gone by not picking up options:

after '07: Milton's $9M is no more;

before/during '08: Dunn's $13.5M could vaporize if the reds either trade him or don't pick up his option (given how they've shopped him, a rebound year might get them a trade partner making the option decision a moot one);

before '09: Griffey's $16.5M will absolutely be bought out for $4M if he hasn't already retired. If Griffey collapses this year, his $12.5M in '08 might disappear due to retirement.

Harang's and Arroyo's extensions are essentially paid for by money going off of the books.

The extensions were pretty much no brainers (that's a good thing....it shows in the very least they are looking ahead and trying to anticipating markets) that are making nice postcards to potential season ticket holders. That being said, they indicate nothing about the potential for future payroll increases.

CrackerJack
02-08-2007, 08:56 PM
Now if the Reds had been able to develop young starting pitching on a consistant basis, then I might agree that trading him would be a good idea. If you get rid of Arroyo, you only have one quality starter. Now I'm no math genius but I think two quality starters are much better than one and some maybes.


My feelin's as well. Supply and demand issue at this point.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 08:57 PM
Ok, I just watched the press conference video. My review:

1. I think Wayne Krivsky and Arroyo speak the same language. They are both straightforward, honest dudes who appreciate other straightforward, honest dudes. Very nice. Wayne is a lot grumpier than Arroyo though.

2. Where did Krivsky get his nifty Reds lapel pin?

3. For all of his rock star preening, when you get right down to it, Bronson Arroyo really just looks like a dude from the hills of Kentucky. It wouldn't kill him to stop listening to Stone Temple Pilots and pick up a couple of My Morning Jacket and Green Genes albums. Perhaps I will send him a Byrds record or something. He's got at least four years to get this kind of stuff down now.

I think maybe I should go, like, find something to do.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 09:09 PM
What's wrong with Stone Temple Pilots? :)

pedro
02-08-2007, 09:14 PM
Ok, I just watched the press conference video. My review:

1. I think Wayne Krivsky and Arroyo speak the same language. They are both straightforward, honest dudes who appreciate other straightforward, honest dudes. Very nice. Wayne is a lot grumpier than Arroyo though.

2. Where did Krivsky get his nifty Reds lapel pin?

3. For all of his rock star preening, when you get right down to it, Bronson Arroyo really just looks like a dude from the hills of Kentucky. It wouldn't kill him to stop listening to Stone Temple Pilots and pick up a couple of My Morning Jacket and Green Genes albums. Perhaps I will send him a Byrds record or something. He's got at least four years to get this kind of stuff down now.

I think maybe I should go, like, find something to do.

:laugh:

jojo
02-08-2007, 09:14 PM
What's wrong with Stone Temple Pilots? :)

No banjos or washboards....:rockband:

pedro
02-08-2007, 09:19 PM
What's wrong with Stone Temple Pilots? :)

you honestly have to ask? ;)

http://www.nrk.no/img/569010.jpeg

GAC
02-08-2007, 09:23 PM
Nope. Maybe it was all the people reading into those comments that he wanted out of Cincy who were full of hot air.

Why on earth would anyone be surprised that Bronson had a great time in Boston? I'd be shocked beyond belief if he didn't always have a smile on his face whenever thinking about the ride he had there.

Exactly. Ever hear of any ex-Reds who talked fondly of their days in Cincy and that they hated to leave there due to the friendships and bonds they had made there? I can name a few.

A solid move by the Reds/Krivsky.

Who would have think it? ;)

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 09:24 PM
you honestly have to ask? ;)

http://www.nrk.no/img/569010.jpeg

Yeah, he's a little....uh....odd.

:eek:

Roy Tucker
02-08-2007, 09:43 PM
This is a wee bit risky move for WK. I'm not 100% sold on Bronson. More like 85%.

But I'm not complaining. I'd rather throw the money at Arroyo rather than Meche or Marquis.

TeamBoone
02-08-2007, 09:48 PM
Yeah, he's a little....uh....odd.

:eek:

name me a rock star who isn't (and I've seen a whole lot worse... and so have you).

OnBaseMachine
02-08-2007, 09:50 PM
I'm shocked as I didn't see this one coming. Good move, Wayne.

Homer Bailey
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto

I love the sound of that.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 09:52 PM
name me a rock star who isn't (and I've seen a whole lot worse... and so have you).

Yes I have.

They're rock stars.....they can do whatever they want.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 10:24 PM
I should clarify that there is NOTHING wrong with Scott Weiland, apart from the alleged wife-beating and all that. I just think that Bronson is truly more Kentucky hilltop than Scott Weiland. Maybe the Reds are just helping him reach his potential as a human being. I believe in these things.

Sorry to derail the thread...great signing. A+++.

Caseyfan21
02-08-2007, 10:38 PM
All season I was sort oh "ehh" on Arroyo. I appreciated his contributions to the team but at the same time I felt like he was just doing his time in Cincinnati until he could leave for the bigger and better pastures. Now, after reading his comments about the city and how much he loves it here, I think he might be the next Reds player I latch onto as one of my favorites. Ever since Casey has left I haven't really had a player that I really liked. Last year when I wanted to get a new Reds jersey I bought a 1990 Larkin model. I respect many of the guys like Harang, Griffey, Phillips, but no one that I really absolutely rooted hard for every day. Arroyo has shown a commitment to the team that I think us fans need to show.

Folks, the catch 22 is now over. It's always been an argument back and forth here about whether the team should spend money to draw fans or whether fans should show up to get the team to spend money. Bob has just dropped big cash for our two MVP's from last year. If the attendance doesn't improve this year it will just be a slap in the face to him. If this team stays near .500 and competes all year and is in it then the ballpark better absolutely packed come every August and September game. I am so excited for this season to start. I finally feel like Wayne is showing me something after I got a little down with the Lopez/Kearns trade. If these two deals haven't given him a little bit longer leash then I'm not sure what will short of trading for Pujols.

I think if this team adds one bat and one proven closer (much easier said then done) they are a serious playoff contender. I think the deal for a bat can wait until the all star break. If Wayne can just pull something off for a proven back of the bullpen arm I am ready to defend this team's playoffs chances against any other team in the league.

reds44
02-08-2007, 10:41 PM
The plan is clear -- invest in pitching. Defense -- signing Gonzalez, asking Griffey to consider a move to a corner spot., etc., is also clearly a priority, as Krivsky has said it would be. For me, that's sufficient evidence of a plan at work. For those who seem to be saying a plan constitutes being able to strengthen your team in the optimal manner in every area of possible weakness in a single year (i.e, let's get a Detroit-style bullpen tout de suite, thanks, or let's get us a #3 starter chop chop), I'd say there's no GM who can have that kind of plan and accomplish it. If there is such a GM, who is it?
Agreed


I'm shocked as I didn't see this one coming. Good move, Wayne.

Homer Bailey
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto

I love the sound of that.

Yep, exactly.

Caveat Emperor
02-08-2007, 10:48 PM
Yes, I often find myself getting wistful over the meaningless contract savings it created. Good times.

I just miss having a lefty in the rotation that I actually disliked more than Eric Milton.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 11:07 PM
I just miss having a lefty in the rotation that I actually disliked more than Eric Milton.

I would not wish this on my worst enemy.

pedro
02-08-2007, 11:16 PM
http://graphics.boston.com/images/bostondirtdogs//Headline_Archives/rockstar-bronson.jpg

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 11:38 PM
I think if this team adds one bat and one proven closer (much easier said then done) they are a serious playoff contender. I think the deal for a bat can wait until the all star break. If Wayne can just pull something off for a proven back of the bullpen arm I am ready to defend this team's playoffs chances against any other team in the league.

The 2007 team is no different now than it was 3 days ago.

Harang contract was a no-brainer on the Reds side.

Arroyo deal? Scary. He could crash back to Earth this season and then the Bronson Milton name will be thrown around. Personally, I think WK could have waited for a deal on Arroyo. It's nice to see the FO committed to pitching, but I felt the same way when Milty was signed. I've learned from that.

So basically, I still think this team will have a nearly impossible task of breaking .500 this season. Pitching 3-5 is still horrific. Still question marks in the field and in the lineup. Still wasted money in the bullpen.

But the team's future looks like it has promise. All Arroyo has to do is pitch like a #2-3 and he'll work out, though the $ is a little high. Bruce, Votto, EdE, Dunn?, Phillips, Deno? is a nice core. Here's a few avenues WK should test out:

1) Start shopping Freel. This has to be done. Shoot for a young power arm in the BP if possible, closer material. Florida would be a nice place to start looking.

2) Start shaking out Bob's wallet for the draft. This draft looms large, as they have multiple higher picks in a pretty strong draft. Get some guys who look as if they can arrive in 2-3 years, timed with the other prospects. It would be nice to get a college starter, as 3 deep in the rotation is nice but 4 deep is nicer.

3) Trade the older guys in the bullpen come deadline time. I'd be willing to bet they're gonna be out of it, so take what you can get and save some of that money.

Just some thoughts.

remdog
02-08-2007, 11:50 PM
It's always been an argument back and forth here about whether the team should spend money to draw fans or whether fans should show up to get the team to spend money. Bob has just dropped big cash for our two MVP's from last year.

I am glad Castellini made the commitment to go after starting pitching---especially Harang. It brings an immediate psychological/emmotional return to the fans that should translate into some $s in the form of ticket sales, merchandise, etc.

However, it isn't like BC reached into his pocket and tossed a big wad of bills on the table. Almost all of the money spent over the last two days doesn't come due until after the '08 season---a season that sees a significant drop in the cost of players like Dunn, Griffey and Milton. In other words, Bob spent future dollars, not cash. A good move to sign these guys but not nearly as big a gesture as it seems at first glance. (shrug)

Rem

guttle11
02-08-2007, 11:56 PM
Arroyo deal? Scary. He could crash back to Earth this season and then the Bronson Milton name will be thrown around.

I don't get the crash back to earth thing. His numbers this year we're better for sure, but I think a lot of them can be explained by him moving to the NL.


SEASON TEAM IP H R ER HR BB SO W L WHIP G/F OPS ERA
2004 Bos 178.2 171 99 80 17 47 142 10 9 1.22 0.85 .714 4.03
2005 Bos 205.1 213 116 103 22 54 100 14 10 1.30 0.97 .758 4.52
2006 Cin 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 1.19 0.98 .690 3.29

Best guess is that 2007 resembles something in the middle of 2005 and 2006 (2004 with 200+innings), but there isn't that much of a difference. Anything else is kind of unforeseen and is just part of the gamble that all teams take.

Considering the value pitchers near his general ability are getting on the open market, this is a great, great deal for the Reds in the short term. And given the belief that the market will only get more pricey, odds are good that it will be a great deal in the long term as well.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 11:58 PM
I don't get the crash back to earth thing. His numbers this year we're better for sure, but I think a lot of them can be explained by him moving to the NL.


SEASON TEAM IP H R ER HR BB SO W L WHIP G/F OPS ERA
2004 Bos 178.2 171 99 80 17 47 142 10 9 1.22 0.85 .714 4.03
2005 Bos 205.1 213 116 103 22 54 100 14 10 1.30 0.97 .758 4.52
2006 Cin 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 1.19 0.98 .690 3.29

Best guess is that 2007 resembles something in the middle of 2005 and 2006, but there isn't that much of a difference. Anything else is kind of unforeseen and is just part of the gamble that all teams take.

Considering the value pitchers near his general ability are getting on the open market, this is a great, great deal for the Reds.

Not much of a difference? Are you sure? I know this is a Reds board and we're all at least a little biased, but put BA on the Cards last year and have him sign this contract and I am sure more than a few people would throw the ol' "regression to the mean" phrase around.

Compare his tenure in the AL to Lilly's and then I guess Lilly's contract doesn't look so bad?

Caseyfan21
02-09-2007, 12:14 AM
The 2007 team is no different now than it was 3 days ago.


But doesn't it just feel better? :laugh:

It's that spring optimism. I hadn't gotten my yearly dose of it until the past couple days. I was talking with a friend the day after the Harang deal and we were sort of going through the lineup and just dreaming about how things could go right this year...Dunn and Edwin come on with strong years to carry the offense. Milton and Lohse each put up around 10 wins. Harang and Arroyo each put up 15 wins. Homer comes up part way through the year and adds 10 wins or so to the mix. Stanton and Weathers hold down the back end until Guardado can come on strong in July.

This is the time of year when it's ok to not be a realist. Just thinking about how baseball is about 2 months away makes me excited for spring training to start.

jojo
02-09-2007, 12:14 AM
Not much of a difference? Are you sure? I know this is a Reds board and we're all at least a little biased, but put BA on the Cards last year and have him sign this contract and I am sure more than a few people would throw the ol' "regression to the mean" phrase around.

Compare his tenure in the AL to Lilly's and then I guess Lilly's contract doesn't look so bad?

Bronson had alot of things going for him last season-league change, alot of innings against some of the worst lineups in baseball, and luck (very high strand rate).


I seriously doubt Arroyo will have a sub-4.00 ERA (I could generally care less about ERA anyway) but he's still a safe bet for somewhere around 200 quality (above league average) innings... For $4M, I don't think people can complain if that is in fact his destiny for '07. Basically, I think it's reasonable to expect him to be roughly as effective as last year but just not as lucky.

It's the last two years of the extension that I think are pretty risky.

guttle11
02-09-2007, 12:16 AM
Not much of a difference? Are you sure? I know this is a Reds board and we're all at least a little biased, but put BA on the Cards last year and have him sign this contract and I am sure more than a few people would throw the ol' "regression to the mean" phrase around.

Compare his tenure in the AL to Lilly's and then I guess Lilly's contract doesn't look so bad?

The difference is that Lilly's contract is for $7 million more than Bronson, and though their recent numbers are similar, Bronson's are probably slightly better than Lilly's, considering he eats more innings. The $7 million difference strikes me because I have a small market mind, not necessarily because of what teams they sign with.


SEASON TEAM IP H R ER HR BB SO W L WHIP G/F OPS ERA
2004 Tor 197.1 171 92 89 26 89 168 12 10 1.31 0.80 .709 4.06
2005 Tor 126.1 135 79 78 23 58 96 10 11 1.53 0.92 .813 5.56
2006 Tor 181.2 179 98 87 28 81 160 15 13 1.43 0.89 .762 4.31

paulrichjr
02-09-2007, 12:16 AM
The bold section might have already been discussed but I don't remember it. I found that very interesting...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2758621

CINCINNATI -- In their biggest spending splurge since they brought Ken Griffey Jr. home, the Cincinnati Reds have locked up their top two starting pitchers for the next four years.



Arroyo
It's a sign of how priorities have changed.

Right-hander Bronson Arroyo got a two-year extension Thursday that will pay him an additional $25 million and keep him under contract through at least 2010. There's a team option for the following season.

The agreement came two days after top starter Aaron Harang avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $36.5 million, four-year deal that also includes a club option for 2011.

"I honestly didn't think they were going to even talk to me about a contract this offseason," said Arroyo, who had two years left on his current deal. "But they were serious."

For the first time since they won the World Series in 1990, the Reds have a pair of starters worth such long-term deals and an owner willing to spend the money. Harang and Arroyo will make at least $71 million over the next four years.

"Most baseball people agree that with Bronson and Aaron Harang, the top of our rotation is as strong as any in baseball," owner Bob Castellini said.

The two contracts amounted to the team's biggest spending splurge since 1990, when previous owner Carl Lindner gave Griffey a $116.5 million, nine-year deal to play for his hometown team. The downside of that deal was that it forced the team to scrimp on pitching to stay within its budget.

In the following years, the Reds also gave big contracts to two other position players: shortstop Barry Larkin (three years, $27 million) and first baseman Sean Casey (three years, $20.4 million).

"When you look at all the Braves' winning years, you look at their rotation," general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "Your starting pitching is so important to the success of your team. It's nice to have these two guys signed for the period of time we do now."

Harang, 28, became only the eighth NL pitcher since 1960 to lead the league in wins (16) and strikeouts (216). He started 35 games, pitched 234 1-3 innings and had a 3.76 earned run average.

Arroyo, 29, was nearly his mirror image. He went 14-11, also started 35 games, pitched a league-high 240 2-3 innings and had a 3.29 ERA.

The Reds got Arroyo from Boston for outfielder Wily Mo Pena during spring training last year. Arroyo initially missed the big city, where he pitched in a World Series and launched his music career.

"Last year in the beginning of the season, I was still watching a lot of Sox games and I was kind of still caught up in the middle emotionally about being traded," Arroyo said. "After being here a year and going through what we went through last year with having a chance to make the playoffs, I'm a Red through and through now."

The Reds finished 80-82 -- their sixth straight losing season -- but were in contention until the final weeks in the NL Central. Arroyo was one of 36 players acquired by Krivsky after he got the job last February.

Arroyo enjoyed the city and developed a local following for his musical career. The singer/guitarist has played several concerts in the area, the first of which was sponsored by the Reds' community fund.

"I think the team here definitely has embraced that part of me a little more than Boston did," he said. "I think Boston discouraged it from the fact that they thought it was a little bit of a distraction to me."

When the Reds approached him about an extension a couple of weeks ago and he saw their initial offer, he was receptive to working it out.

Arroyo gets base salaries of $4,125,000 this year and $3.95 million in 2008, figures set under the old contract. The extension includes a $2.5 million signing bonus that will be paid next year.

Arroyo will get salaries of $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010. There is a club option at $11 million for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

As part of the agreement, Arroyo dropped provisions in his existing contract that could have increased his 2008 income by $650,000.

pedro
02-09-2007, 12:19 AM
Arroyo is a lot better than Lilly IMO.

vaticanplum
02-09-2007, 12:21 AM
"Last year in the beginning of the season, I was still watching a lot of Sox games and I was kind of still caught up in the middle emotionally about being traded," Arroyo said. "After being here a year and going through what we went through last year with having a chance to make the playoffs, I'm a Red through and through now."

My biggest personal fear as a human being is ever becoming a sentimental person, and I think that sentiment should play no part in any human decision, but if I'm completely honest with myself, crap like that makes me teary.

Thanks for the link.

wolfboy
02-09-2007, 12:34 AM
Not much of a difference? Are you sure? I know this is a Reds board and we're all at least a little biased, but put BA on the Cards last year and have him sign this contract and I am sure more than a few people would throw the ol' "regression to the mean" phrase around.

Compare his tenure in the AL to Lilly's and then I guess Lilly's contract doesn't look so bad?

It's all in the wording, but maybe Arroyo's deal doesn't look so bad in light of Lilly's deal. Personally, I'd have been upset if they'd overpaid for a guy like Lilly. Even if Arroyo regresses a bit, I won't be too worried. To get a guy at his current performance level or slightly worse, the Reds would have to overpay. I'd rather they pay market value for a guy they have than overpay to bring someone like Lilly in. This was a big surprise. I'm a little worried about how this will look on the back end of the contract, but it's probably worth the risk.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 12:37 AM
Even this move can bring the Eeyore out of some folks.

Cracks me up.
Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.

What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 12:45 AM
... For $4M, I don't think people can complain if that is in fact his destiny for '07. Basically, I think it's reasonable to expect him to be roughly as effective as last year but just not as lucky.

It's the last two years of the extension that I think are pretty risky.
And expensive...

Reds1
02-09-2007, 12:46 AM
getting him for Wily Mo was just awesome. If we could get one more pitcher with these two and homer and this could get exciting. Maybe Loshe can be that guy. We know what we get with Milton. Only thing positive there is that it's contract year. :)

WMR
02-09-2007, 12:55 AM
Great job Krivsky! He deserves a hearty backslap for his work this past week.

Bravo too to Mr. Castellini for showing his willingness to open the checkbook.

Applause finally to these two men for spending reasonable money whilst avoiding the crazy free agent market we've witnessed this off-season.

WVRedsFan
02-09-2007, 12:57 AM
Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.

What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.

I'm not criticizing the move. I think it had to be done, but wonder the same thing. And I'm a little guy shy on extensions since Krivsky's blunder in extending Narron, but all in all a good move.

As for the plan, I haven't really seen any. The last two days' moves were something, like I said, that had to be done. All I've seen is throwing stuff at the wall to see if it will stick while preaching good pitching and defense.

westofyou
02-09-2007, 12:58 AM
What really cracks me up is the number of times "the plan" was mentioned in this thread.True... but you heard?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same

I'm wary, history is a tough master, take the 1970 Reds proposed starters.

Maloney - 29
Merritt - 26
McGlothlin - 26
Nolan - 21
Simpson - 21

Caveat Emperor
02-09-2007, 01:02 AM
Call me gloomy then. I would have preferred to see how Arroyo interacted with Dick Pole, before extending him for two more years. Bronson likes to throw from multiple arm slots and I'm just curious how that's going to work out going forward with a new pitching coach.

Of course, if Bronson throws a 2007 that is similar to 2008 it makes him that much more expensive (as a "known" commodity) and places him a year closer to free agency -- which might look more attractive than an extension when it's only a year away. Plus, if the pitching market explodes again, it could send salaries for top-flight pitchers soaring to the point where having both Bronson and Harang limits the ability to keep both.

Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.

Plus, the Reds just went and rewarded a player who had a fantastic year and became an indispensible part of the team. They were under no obligation to pay him a dime more for his next two years or to start negotiating this far in advance. Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?

vaticanplum
02-09-2007, 01:04 AM
Of course, if Bronson throws a 2007 that is similar to 2008 it makes him that much more expensive (as a "known" commodity) and places him a year closer to free agency -- which might look more attractive than an extension when it's only a year away. Plus, if the pitching market explodes again, it could send salaries for top-flight pitchers soaring to the point where having both Bronson and Harang limits the ability to keep both.

Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.

Plus, the Reds just went and rewarded a player who had a fantastic year and became an indispensible part of the team. They were under no obligation to pay him a dime more for his next two years or to start negotiating this far in advance. Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?

:clap:

flynn78
02-09-2007, 01:47 AM
Bronson announces he is "a Red through and through". Good to hear. I think that locking up Arroyo and Harang for the future was a good idea. They will be really good mentors to Homer. For the first time in a while I think we are going in the right direction with our pitching idea. Let's see where this takes us, but I am cautiously stupidly optimistic.

Ron Madden
02-09-2007, 06:16 AM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

The secret to any successful bull pen is rubber armed pitchers with different talents and skill sets and a Manager who has the ability to identify those talents and skill sets.

A good Manager can make an average pen look good. A bad Manager can make a good pen look bad. (JMHO)

Ron Madden
02-09-2007, 06:34 AM
the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Scary aint it?

Narron has no clue how or when to use his relief pitchers.

GAC
02-09-2007, 09:16 AM
OK. If (and I say "If") Milton has a decent year this season..... does this team try to resign him looking at what has went down in this past winter's FA market?

I'm not advocating it or saying they should.... do you think they'll try?

macro
02-09-2007, 09:42 AM
OK. If (and I say "If") Milton has a decent year this season..... does this team try to resign him looking at what has went down in this past winter's FA market?

I'm not advocating it or saying they should.... do you think they'll try?

GAC, I think this question (and it's a really good one) deserves a thread of its own.

Johnny Footstool
02-09-2007, 11:10 AM
you honestly have to ask? ;)

http://www.nrk.no/img/569010.jpeg

Hey now, "Barbarella" is a fantastic song. Of course, everything else he's written in the past 10 years is pretty lousy...

Redsland
02-09-2007, 11:15 AM
The two contracts amounted to the team's biggest spending splurge since 1990, when previous owner Carl Lindner gave Griffey a $116.5 million, nine-year deal to play for his hometown team.
:ughmamoru

BuckeyeRedleg
02-09-2007, 12:55 PM
My worthless opinion on the Arroyo signing....

I like the Harang deal a lot, but I'm not buying into the hype of the Arroyo deal. On one side, it shows that the team is committed to some form of stability, which I dig, but on the other, it's quite a bit of money for a guy that may have peaked in 2006.

If I have the numbers right, Bronson was due to make 8 million over the next two years and then enter his first year of free agency in 2009. 4M per year is very inexpensive for a quality pitcher like Arroyo. Now with this deal, we have extended him two years, essentially buying his first two years of free agency for 25M.

Let's say he doesn't get hurt and he equals his career year of 2006 for the next two years. Two years where we were paying him roughly 8M (4M per). Now, let's say we didn't re-sign him yesterday. So now 2009 comes along and he's a Free Agent. Wouldn't you think 2 years at 25M would be pretty steep? And that's after you get to watch him for two more years to judge whether he's worthy. Yesterday's deal is a huge gamble. Not only is it a ton of money. It's a ton of money for a guy who could have peaked in 2006 and has been overworked. 25M would also make it hard to deal him. We may have to eat some dough, if necessary, just to unload him.

I'll be happy to be wrong with my concerns if he can match 2006 for the next 4+ years. I just don't think an organization that already screwed itself with the Milton deal, two years ago, can afford this high of a gamble again, with such a limited payroll.

Arroyo went from being a great value (4M per) which a cost-conscience organizaion such as the Reds desperately needs, to being just another one of those expensive question marks (see: Gil Meche) that potentially could evolve into an expensive mistake (see: Eric Milton).

As for Harang, it was a no-brainer. He is a horse and a great foundation to build the staff around. And we got him cheap. A+ for signing him longterm at such a great value. C- for the Arroyo deal. It wasn't necessary, but I understand it might have bought some goodwill with the Reds faithful However, the Milton deal was made for that exact purpose as well.

Yachtzee
02-09-2007, 01:17 PM
Well, you can look at this deal by splitting it into 2 years cheap, 2 years expensive, or you can look at the total money involved, spread out over the 4 years, and ask yourself, in light of the money being paid for mediocre pitching this year, is it a good deal? What is that, 4 years at a little over $8M a year? If you look at it that way, I still think it's a good deal if Arroyo is a solid #2 starter this year and a solid #3-4 pitcher in the following years. Imagine what a #3 or #4 pitcher will be paid in those years. It's not like salaries for starting pitchers are going to go down in the future. Even half-way decent starting pitching is scarce if you aren't one of the big boys or developing it yourself.

Ltlabner
02-09-2007, 01:24 PM
Let's say he doesn't get hurt and he equals his career year of 2006 for the next two years. Two years where we were paying him roughly 8M (4M per). Now, let's say we didn't re-sign him yesterday. So now 2009 comes along and he's a Free Agent. Wouldn't you think 2 years at 25M would be pretty steep? And that's after you get to watch him for two more years to judge whether he's worthy. Yesterday's deal is a huge gamble. Not only is it a ton of money. It's a ton of money for a guy who could have peaked in 2006 and has been overworked. .

What is the alternative then? Spend a boatload of money now on a FA pitcher that you know for sure has peaked? (Suppan, Weaver, Menche). Do nothing and close the window of opportunity of having two decent arms on the staff past 2008?

They are "locking in prices" now on a player instead of gambling on getting a better player later on when prices are most certinally going to be higher.

Kc61
02-09-2007, 01:50 PM
I agree with BuckEye that yesterday's deal was a "huge gamble." But the Harang deal was also a "huge gamble." Most times you sign a pitcher for the long-term it is a huge gamble. The Mets signed Pedro -- huge gamble. The Cubs signed Lily -- huge gamble.

The problem is that, unless you take the gamble some time, you are constantly in a frantic search for pitching. So you bite the bullet on occasion, go for it, and try to buy a good insurance policy to protect against injury.

Everybody seems very sure that Harang will be better than Arroyo going forward. But their numbers last year overall were amazingly similar. Harang is a bit more of a strikeout pitcher, to his advantage. Arroyo was far more effective than Harang at GABP, to Bronson's advantage. And both were used heavily -- hard to say which of the two will hold up better with continued heavy use.

You have to commit to someone at some point. These guys are in their prime, no arm injuries, workhorses, successful. I think WK was right to sign em.

BuckeyeRedleg
02-09-2007, 01:51 PM
What is the alternative then? Spend a boatload of money now on a FA pitcher that you know for sure has peaked? (Suppan, Weaver, Menche). Do nothing and close the window of opportunity of having two decent arms on the staff past 2008?

They are "locking in prices" now on a player instead of gambling on getting a better player later on when prices are most certinally going to be higher.

Good question. I don't know. Maybe just play it out another year. See how Bronson's arm holds up and if he can match the success he had in 2006, and then maybe negotiate from there. I just think that there is a lot of time involved and a lot can happen. Don't get me wrong, I applaud them doing something, I'm just a little leery of shelling out this kind of money on a not-so-sure thing. I know there are no sure thing's, but it just seems like this will either be awesome or blow up in our faces. I hope it works for the best. I really do.

On the plus side, the market in two years for a Bronson may be 15M+. I'm hoping that's the case and we have him under market value again.

Ltlabner
02-09-2007, 01:55 PM
Good question. I don't know. Maybe just play it out another year. See how Bronson's arm holds up and if he can match the success he had in 2006, and then maybe negotiate from there.

I can see where you are comming from. But the closer he gets to FA, especially if he performs well, the less interested in a LTC he may be. He even commented on the guarenteed money at the presser, so it's obviously on his mind.

But let's say he regresses a little bit from 2006. He's still better or at the very least, on par with a lot of the FA options out there this year.

jojo
02-09-2007, 02:01 PM
I can see where you are comming from. But the closer he gets to FA, especially if he performs well, the less interested in a LTC he may be. He even commented on the guarenteed money at the presser, so it's obviously on his mind.

But let's say he regresses a little bit from 2006. He's still better or at the very least, on par with a lot of the FA options out there this year.

Yes but you should be comparing him to the free agent crops after next season and the next and the next....those are the appropriate markets and arms....

It's very possible that the market will correct itself and there certainly are much better free agent crops in the upcoming years.

Ltlabner
02-09-2007, 02:08 PM
Yes but you should be comparing him to the free agent crops after next season and the next and the next....those are the appropriate markets and arms....

It's very possible that the market will correct itself and there certainly are much better free agent crops in the upcoming years.

Thats a good point. The FA crop will be better. But locking up Arroyo now gives us the opportunity to also go after one of these FA's in the future and have both guys. That is, instead of having to replace Arroyo and still possibly only have 2 decent arms in the rotation.

The market may "correct" itself, but generally speaking prices are always going to be greater in the future than they are now. If you can lock up the bird in the hand at today's prices and leave to door open too add to the rotation, instead of just replaceing what you lost, I think the smart money says you have to risk the injury and possible performance regression.

BuckeyeRedleg
02-09-2007, 02:17 PM
The market may "correct" itself, but generally speaking prices are always going to be greater in the future than they are now. If you can lock up the bird in the hand at today's prices and leave to door open too add to the rotation, instead of just replaceing what you lost, I think the smart money says you have to risk the injury and possible performance regression.

Good point. I certainly don't have a problem paying Arroyo 33M over four years. I just can't shake the fact from my head that we already had him for 8M over two years and we have dipped into his first two years free agency at 25M. Two years ago, I'd be thrilled with this extension. Now I'm somewhat apprehensive.

Eric Milton is to blame.

Ltlabner
02-09-2007, 03:03 PM
Good point. I certainly don't have a problem paying Arroyo 33M over four years. I just can't shake the fact from my head that we already had him for 8M over two years and we have dipped into his first two years free agency at 25M. Two years ago, I'd be thrilled with this extension. Now I'm somewhat apprehensive.

Eric Milton is to blame.

Something tells me the ghost of Eric Milton past will haunt a lot of us for a long time to come.

oneupper
02-09-2007, 05:02 PM
I just hope Harang and Arroyo don't turn into Prior and Wood.

Patrick Bateman
02-09-2007, 05:15 PM
Well, you can look at this deal by splitting it into 2 years cheap, 2 years expensive, or you can look at the total money involved, spread out over the 4 years, and ask yourself, in light of the money being paid for mediocre pitching this year, is it a good deal? What is that, 4 years at a little over $8M a year? If you look at it that way, I still think it's a good deal if Arroyo is a solid #2 starter this year and a solid #3-4 pitcher in the following years. Imagine what a #3 or #4 pitcher will be paid in those years. It's not like salaries for starting pitchers are going to go down in the future. Even half-way decent starting pitching is scarce if you aren't one of the big boys or developing it yourself.

This recent deal can only be looked at in regards to the last 2 seasons. Since he was already signed to those years, that part of the contract is completely seperate from this new deal. The question is, will he be worth 12.5 per season in 2009 and 2010. I think it's a good gamble. The market will likely keep going up and if he's a decent pitcher, I think he would probably be worth about 15M per season when it came to free agency.

Red Leader
02-09-2007, 05:23 PM
Isn't it obvious?

1. Collect old relief pitchers
2. ???
3. Profit

Sorry I'm late.

http://cache.jalopnik.com/cars/images/2006/04/Underpants_Gnomes_South_Park.JPG

Eric_Davis
02-09-2007, 05:33 PM
In a market like ours, what's the best type of contract we can hope to expect from a quality pitcher?

I think it's trying to lock up solid #3 guys who've proven themselves, are no older than 28-29, can expect to give us numbers of #3 or #2 guys for each of the next four years and get them currently at a cost of $36M for those four years.

I think these two signings are right there. They are for a little less money, the pitchers are better than solid #3 guys right now, Arroyo is a little older, so he might have a bigger dropoff three and four years from now (not to mention that the NL may get used to his breaking ball), but Harang is 29 and has a more powerful pitch and go deeper into games than Arroyo can, though that wasn't at all the case last year.

In the next 12 months, we need another one of these.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 09:35 PM
All I've seen is throwing stuff at the wall to see if it will stick while preaching good pitching and defense.
Both have improved in the past 366 days.

Ron Madden
02-09-2007, 09:41 PM
I agree with BuckEye that yesterday's deal was a "huge gamble." But the Harang deal was also a "huge gamble." Most times you sign a pitcher for the long-term it is a huge gamble. The Mets signed Pedro -- huge gamble. The Cubs signed Lily -- huge gamble.

The problem is that, unless you take the gamble some time, you are constantly in a frantic search for pitching. So you bite the bullet on occasion, go for it, and try to buy a good insurance policy to protect against injury.

Everybody seems very sure that Harang will be better than Arroyo going forward. But their numbers last year overall were amazingly similar. Harang is a bit more of a strikeout pitcher, to his advantage. Arroyo was far more effective than Harang at GABP, to Bronson's advantage. And both were used heavily -- hard to say which of the two will hold up better with continued heavy use.

You have to commit to someone at some point. These guys are in their prime, no arm injuries, workhorses, successful. I think WK was right to sign em.

I've got more faith in Harang but I'm very happy Bronson was also signed LT. Great moves by WK. :thumbup: These were moves that had to be made.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 09:47 PM
True... but you heard?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same

I'm wary, history is a tough master, take the 1970 Reds proposed starters.

Maloney - 29
Merritt - 26
McGlothlin - 26
Nolan - 21
Simpson - 21

But...

The plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been

The 1970 Reds beat Pythag by 11 games and three of those starters munched alot of innings. Not too mention the rubber arm of Clay Carroll.

westofyou
02-09-2007, 09:51 PM
But...

The plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been

The 1970 Reds beat Pythag by 11 games and three of those starters munched alot of innings. Not too mention the rubber arm of Clay Carroll.

Yep, but at the end of the year they were a mess.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 10:04 PM
Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.
After seeing the money involved, $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010, I'm beginning to warm up to this extension. While the bonus in 2008 and the buy out are real money, they won't count against the payroll going forward. I'm beginning to think that it's a risk worth taking.

Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?
My guess is, not as many as one would think. And if they did, they are most likely of the Neifirific variety that the Reds would do themselves a favor by avoiding in the first place.

Reds Nd2
02-09-2007, 10:23 PM
Yep, but at the end of the year they were a mess.
They only had one losing season in the next eleven years though. Too bad there wasn't a wild card back in the day.

westofyou
02-10-2007, 04:12 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5862#CIN


Signed RHP Aaron Harang to a four-year, $36.5 million contract. [2/6]

Signed RHP Bronson Arroyo to a two-year, $25 million contract extension through 2010, with an $11 millioin club option for 2011. [2/8]

I know I've picked on Wayne Krivsky for a lot of things this winter, but relatively speaking, those are niggling details next to the investment the team's new ownership has made in its top tandem of quality starters. There's also the human angle to it, of course, where Arroyo gets a payday to help him overcome feeling chuffed over last year's contract he signed and home he bought in Boston, anticipating that the Red Sox really wanted him. Harang doesn't come with any of that drama, but whatever your particular favorite flavor of support-neutral statistic, Harang and Arroyo were among the top 15 starters in baseball, and PECOTA seems pretty sanguine about the Reds getting value over the lives of those deals. If these sorts of things work out, it's not hard to envision Cincinnati resuming its place on the short list of the country's best baseball cities as far as fan support, a well-run franchise, and a product worth the fans' investments of time, passion, and moolah.

vaticanplum
02-10-2007, 08:18 PM
That BP write-up is a pretty good overview of an assessment. Any sportswriter who uses the word "chuffed" jumps a few percentage points in my book.

Eric_Davis
02-10-2007, 09:14 PM
A couple of years ago I wrote that Cincinnati is one of the few baseball cities in the U. S. where you can't sugar-coat the franchise. I wrote that the strike of '94 soured this town on baseball more than any other. The proof in that was the poor turnout during the '95 playoff season, even during the playoffs. You could barely give tickets away to the series against the Braves.

But with a tradition going back literally to the end of the Andrew Johnson administration, and Opening Day still a Major Holiday in the area, signings like these will bring fans to the stands more than one-year wonder signings like Neagle, et al.

BuckeyeRedleg
02-10-2007, 11:59 PM
It's funny. The front office really hasn't done much for 2007, but these last two signings and the upcoming draft have really gotten me excited about the future of this organization.

We'll see how the draft goes down, but at least with these signings I see somewhat of a vision in place and 2007 will be interesting if for nothing more than viewing it as a stepping stone to future success.