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5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-08-2007, 02:26 PM
We have talked alot about whether to bring Homer up to start the season or season him in AAA. One thought I have been kicking around in my head has to do with the future of the Reds. Some say that waiting a while for him is better for the future of the Reds. The big question I have is this. How much extra spendable revenue will the Reds make starting him in the bigs. I say this because of a few major factors. People will come to see Bronson and Harrang pitch at home. If Homer is in the mix those games will sell out. Whats going to be more valuable, seasoning in AAA or increased attendance revenue for the future.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 02:30 PM
I don't think the place will sell out if Bailey gets knocked around everytime he pitches. I don't think the place will sell out if Bailey gets injured.

Both could happen if the Reds aren't patient with Homer. When he's ready, bring him up and leave him up, but you better make sure he is truly ready.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-08-2007, 02:54 PM
I don't think the place will sell out if Bailey gets knocked around everytime he pitches. I don't think the place will sell out if Bailey gets injured.

Both could happen if the Reds aren't patient with Homer. When he's ready, bring him up and leave him up, but you better make sure he is truly ready.
I agree with the getting knocked around part, but an injury can happen just as easy in AAA as in the bigs. Im not advocating over using him in the bigs, and as a fifth starter I think we could eadily keep him at the number of innings he should be throwing at this point. If we send him to AAA there is 3 possible outcomes IMO.
1. He is lights out and gets brought up right away, could have made a difference in a couple starts at the big league level ( which in a tight race makes all the difference)
2. Has a rough start in AAA. Is not brought up.
3. Does alright and comes up mid season.

If we bring him up right away
1. He is lights out and the future is here.
2. He struggles and he either works through it, or goes to AAA to work things out.
3. He does alright and is a decent option at the back end of the rotation.

Out of those two lists the worst outcome to me is in the AAA scenario. It's gonna big a much bigger hit on his confidence to fail at AAA than at the big league level. I think we all agree that he will come up sooner than later but if he's a better option than what we are trotting out there in the 5 slot I don't see the harm in letting him get "seasoned" with the Reds.

IslandRed
02-08-2007, 03:38 PM
Whats going to be more valuable, seasoning in AAA or increased attendance revenue for the future.

Bringing him up before you otherwise would for the sake of selling some tickets would be a classic example of "penny wise, pound foolish." If this is the guy we're hoping to be our ace in a couple of years, and for years after that, we need to do whatever maximizes the probability of that happening. There's always risk with pitchers. Always. But it's not smart to add additional risk -- to his arm, to his confidence, to whatever -- unless it's necessary.

Danny Serafini
02-08-2007, 03:46 PM
Sounds like David Clyde Syndrome to me.

cincy09
02-08-2007, 03:54 PM
Wayne had said that when he comes up he will stay up......
I think this is the perfect appraoch, but they better be sure he is truely ready

Superdude
02-08-2007, 05:20 PM
You have to figure that most of the people attending the games probably know nothing about him. I was at a Dodgers game when Billingsley pitched and all the fans around me were yelling "send him back to the minors." If he dominates, he'll draw a crowd, but fans aren't gonna pile in to see some rookie they read about in the paper once.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 05:47 PM
You have to figure that most of the people attending the games probably know nothing about him. I was at a Dodgers game when Billingsley pitched and all the fans around me were yelling "send him back to the minors." If he dominates, he'll draw a crowd, but fans aren't gonna pile in to see some rookie they read about in the paper once.

I think even casual fans are familiar with Homer Bailey. He was the main attraction at the Winter Caravan. People could not stop talking about him at Redsfest.

When you have been so thin in the pitching department for so many years people tend to take notice of potential aces coming through the system.

gonelong
02-08-2007, 06:01 PM
I think even casual fans are familiar with Homer Bailey. He was the main attraction at the Winter Caravan. People could not stop talking about him at Redsfest.

I'd submit that if someone comes to the Winter Caravan or Redsfest they are not a casual fan.

GL

Bigredfan#1
02-08-2007, 06:33 PM
I think Bailey could be successful in the ML right now, AA ball seems to be the measuring stick for many teams. Teams jump their pitchers from AA to the ML all the time. Maturity might be the question, he might do him some good to pitch in AAA ball for a while, but there is the risk it would hurt him as well.

I hope the Reds do not play the "he will be able to go to arbritation sooner" game that Tampa Bay has played with their prospects.

Cedric
02-08-2007, 06:34 PM
This thread title is pretty appropriate. I do it daily.