PDA

View Full Version : Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension



Heath
02-08-2007, 12:04 PM
Per Reds.Com -it's true.


Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension
02/08/2007 10:52 AM ET
MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- The Cincinnati Reds and All-Star RHP Bronson Arroyo have agreed to terms on a 2-year contract extension through the 2010 season with a club option for 2011.

On Tuesday, the Reds and RHP Aaron Harang avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 4-year contract through the 2010 season with a club option for 2011. Last season, Arroyo and Harang became the first duo in Reds history to produce at least 200 innings and 184 strikeouts each. They tied for the Major League lead in starts (35), while Arroyo ranked first in the majors in innings pitched (240.2) and Harang finished third in the National League in that category (234.1).

Arroyo, 30, last season was a National League All-Star and was voted by the Cincinnati chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America the winner of both the Johnny Vander Meer Award as the club's Most Outstanding Pitcher and the Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award. He led the Major Leagues in innings pitched (240.2) and ranked among the NL pitching leaders in starts (35, T1st), wins (14, T12th), ERA (3.29, 4th), complete games (3, T5th), strikeouts (184, T6th) and opponents' batting average (.243, 8th).

In each of the last 3 seasons Arroyo established career highs in starts, innings pitched and quality starts, and in each of the last 2 seasons he recorded 14 victories and at least 200 innings. On January 19 of last year, while with Boston, he avoided arbitration by signing a 3-year contract through the 2008 season. On March 20 he was acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for OF Wily Mo Pena and cash.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

No dollars announced yet.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:05 PM
WHAT? Man, that's awesome. Two days in a row of good news.

NJReds
02-08-2007, 12:06 PM
Wow...that's a shocker. I thought he wanted out of here.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:06 PM
As I said in the other forum, I'm not sure now is the right time to give him an extention but it does put an end to the "he'll leave for Boston as soon as he can" talk.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:07 PM
Depends on the money... but if it's a similar deal to Harang's, we should all feel pretty good about our chances over the next few years.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
I wonder when Krivsky is going to do something to solidify this team? I mean, we traded Kearns and Lopez away and...oh nevermind!

westofyou
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Krivsky was cited as being a superb contract GM.

Looks like he plus a willing front office is changing the Reds recent history.

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Pending the dollars involved, I love this move. I think these guys feed off of each other. It's been a long time since we've had this type of tandem.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:08 PM
Money might be scary as he would be stupid to sign for anything that would be considered a "bargain" after this off-season.

Be afraid...be very afraid.

If money is right, I'll be happy. But I'm expecting a fall back to Earth this year for BA, so this might have been a better move after this season IMO.

Again, it all depends on the money.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

Cyclone792
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
My initial reaction - without knowing the money - is this is a very solid move. Remember, he's locked up for 2007 and 2008 anyway for a very attractive deal so it wouldn't surprise me if Bronson is getting "paid" a bit in the extension.

Unless it's a ridiculous amount of money though, which I don't think it will be, I'll definitely like it.

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

That's what I am scared of. That's a lot of money...and probably too much.

Danny Serafini
02-08-2007, 12:11 PM
Wow, didn't see this one coming. Glad to see we are getting rid of the going back to Boston talk though.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:13 PM
I worry about Bronson breaking down before Harang, though. Harang's got a sturdier frame. Having said that, with contracts like Milton, and Griffey coming off the books in the future, it makes sense to lock both Harang and Arroyo into contracts. That way, you've got a foundation with which to build. You know Homer isn't far away. That's 3. That leaves two spots that you need someone to either fall into your lap, or come up through the system in the next 3 years. I like those odds better than trying to find 4 starters.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
I think locking him up does the same thing that locking up Harang does...it makes him even more attractive on the trade market.

Look what we have here...Arroyo, Harang and the promise that Bailey offers through 2010...WOW! Talk about a filthy 1 - 2 - 3...WOW!!!

macro
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.

http://rusticavenger2.home.insightbb.com/bestwishes.jpg

I must admit that this shocks me, that I was wrong, and that I like it!

RFS62
02-08-2007, 12:14 PM
Outstanding move.

:beerme:

Joseph
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
Wow...that's a shocker.

I'll second that!

flyer85
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
I guess Bronson was mostly hot air when discussing his love of Boston and big city life.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.
I'll take mine tough and dry

Hoosier Red
02-08-2007, 12:15 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.

Two days after signing their No. 1 starter through at least 2010, the Reds made the same move with No. 1A. Right-hander Bronson Arroyo agreed to a two-year extension Thursday with an option for 2011.

That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.

The new deal pushes Arroyo's deal to $33.07 million, including the buyout. It pledged $25 million in new money. The deal is an extension of the three-year deal Arroyo signed with Boston Jan. 19 of last year. It was to pay him $3.8 million this season.

Hard to argue with $33Million over 4 years.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:16 PM
That's what I am scared of. That's a lot of money...and probably too much.

What exactly would be 'too much' money for Bronson? If he gets $12 mill for two more years, that would put him at around, what, $30 million for next four when you add it to his current deal? That doesn't sound bad to me at all. I would imagine the deal works out so that he gets paid around the same total that Harang got...

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:16 PM
Wow, didn't see this one coming. Glad to see we are getting rid of the going back to Boston talk though.

Ha! With the snowfall and cold weather this week, he probably thought it was Boston. And maybe Bob's promising to go back to calling us the Red Stockings or Redlegs just to make him feel more at home. Maybe he'll hang a new sign in from of Music Hall that says Faneuil Hall!

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:18 PM
I don't think those numbers are bad at all when you consider what other teams are paying FA pitchers this offseason.

I'm pumped!

Sea Ray
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
Buying F.A. years is a lot more expensive than buying arbitration years. I'm expecting $12-15M per in those two years.

My guess is they sweetened the next two years in which he was underpaid probably through a signing bonus, rather than commiting to huge salaries in the two extended years. Krivsky probably used the principles the NFL uses when they extend young players a year before they're eligible for free agency. Usually these guys are coming off a contract that pays them the league minimum and the carrot that gets their signature is the chance to greatly increase their league minimum year, not necessarily future years

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
I never thought I'd say this, but I hope the Reds start targeting position players in trades, drafts, and free agency in the next 1-2 years.

That doesn't mean that if a stud pitcher falls to them in the draft that I don't want them to draft him, it just means that it'd be nice to get an influx of solid bats into the system to go with the pitching we'll now have for 4 more years.
We need another RH power bat for starters.

Cyclone792
02-08-2007, 12:21 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.

Two days after signing their No. 1 starter through at least 2010, the Reds made the same move with No. 1A. Right-hander Bronson Arroyo agreed to a two-year extension Thursday with an option for 2011.

That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.

The new deal pushes Arroyo's deal to $33.07 million, including the buyout. It pledged $25 million in new money. The deal is an extension of the three-year deal Arroyo signed with Boston Jan. 19 of last year. It was to pay him $3.8 million this season.

Hard to argue with $33Million over 4 years.

Really, IMO, there's a lot more good than bad with this contract extension. Over the next four to five years, it sounds like Arroyo and Harang will be making almost identical money, which I'm fine with.

The plan for the starting rotation is now very clear: Harang and Arroyo are locked up, and the Reds (and everybody) are hoping Bailey fits in for a nice killer threesome in the rotation from 2008-10. There's really a whole lot to love about that and not much to dislike.

Now we need to see some excellent position player and bullpen moves that parallel the rotation's plan. If that falls into place, we could be looking at a nice run from 2008-10.

RedEye
02-08-2007, 12:22 PM
Oops... sorry, I didn't see the later posts about the numbers. 4 years for 33 million is pretty darn good I think. Certainly doesn't break the bank compared to some of those other recent deals out there.

I'd like to express a tentative 'Way to go, Wayne!' now!

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:22 PM
It's a big move in the fact that Bronson would not have re-upped here if he did not agree with the direction this team was going. He wants to win because that's what he's used to in Boston.

This also puts to rest (at least in my opinion) the sentiment that the Reds have no apparent "plan". Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang would not have been convinced to resign here if there wasn't.

Sea Ray
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Per John Fay. Cyclone's numbers are pretty much right.


That means Arroyo and Aaron Harang will be in the rotation for at least the next four years.



I wish it was that simple. If they're healthy, they'll be here for the next 4 years.

membengal
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Wow. A full blown stunner.

Props to WK, ownership, and Arroyo for working together on this. Another good day to be a Reds fan. Lots of good will returning, off of these last two announcements...

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:24 PM
Maybe we should put the straps on Wayne in July and not allow him to make another move until the following January.

All of his moves between January and June, I've liked.

Mitri
02-08-2007, 12:25 PM
Awesome move, totally unexpected. Great week for the Reds.

MartyFan
02-08-2007, 12:25 PM
Have no worries my friends...SPECIAL K is in the house!

I have every bit of faith that he will solidify this team all the way around...

edabbs44
02-08-2007, 12:26 PM
What exactly would be 'too much' money for Bronson? If he gets $12 mill for two more years, that would put him at around, what, $30 million for next four when you add it to his current deal? That doesn't sound bad to me at all. I would imagine the deal works out so that he gets paid around the same total that Harang got...

$30 million for 4 years is skewed b/c those first 2 are already locked in for a total of $6 million.

Heath
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
I'll take it - I'm personally leery of 4 yr deals for pitchers - but I think this is a good move. Nice job WayneK.

Strikes Out Looking
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
I believe this is another great deal for the Reds, even at 12.5 million a year in 2009-10.

First, salaries for starting pitching won't go down. Guys like Gil Meche and Ted Lilly got 4 year 40+ million dollar contracts for 2007-2010. Neither of these guys have ever had years like Bronson had last year.

Second, while there is the risk that Bronson won't perform at 2006 levels in 2009 or 10 or 11, the Reds balanced that with keeping him happy and the fact that he hasn't shown any arm problems in his career. In fact, he's a good example for not rushing Homer as he has progressively pitched more innings as he has gotten older and hasn't shown any signs of wear and tear. And if he does go down with injuries in the latter part of the career that make him unable to pitch, I'd be willing to bet the Reds have insurance for some of the amount they are on the line for.

Third, this gives the Reds starting rotation the most stability they have had since the Rijo-Browning days. We all remember those days, they were the last time the Reds were contenders every year, and I think their place in the standings had much to do with the health of Rijo-Browning. Adding Homer Bailey to the mix full time in 2008 means from 2008-2010 the Reds can pencil in 3 solid starters.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Reds starting pitching is shaping up to be the top in the NL Central for possibly a long time. While Krivsky isn't responsible for all of it, I give him credit for keeping his eye on this very important (maybe the most important) part of the team.

IslandRed
02-08-2007, 12:28 PM
My guess is they sweetened the next two years in which he was underpaid probably through a signing bonus, rather than commiting to huge salaries in the two extended years. Krivsky probably used the principles the NFL uses when they extend young players a year before they're eligible for free agency. Usually these guys are coming off a contract that pays them the league minimum and the carrot that gets their signature is the chance to greatly increase their league minimum year, not necessarily future years

You're probably right. Instead of going 3/3/12/15 (tacking all the new money onto the backend) they probably just tore up the old deal and re-did it with a more gradual escalation.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:33 PM
So did they void the old deal and give him a brand new 4 year deal?

RFS62
02-08-2007, 12:34 PM
I guess Bronson was mostly hot air when discussing his love of Boston and big city life.


Nope. Maybe it was all the people reading into those comments that he wanted out of Cincy who were full of hot air.

Why on earth would anyone be surprised that Bronson had a great time in Boston? I'd be shocked beyond belief if he didn't always have a smile on his face whenever thinking about the ride he had there.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:34 PM
Well, now we know why they extended season ticket package sales into March and why individual game tickets won't start until March.

I'm guessing season ticket packages will start selling a little better after yesterday's and today's news.

Nothing really changed from three days ago to today for 2007, but I still feel a lot better about the Reds than I did three days ago.

Reds Fanatic
02-08-2007, 12:36 PM
Another very good deal for the Reds. Locks up the top 2 starters for the next 4 years. Then when Bailey gets up here I think he will develop into a solid 3rd starter. The Reds may finally be on the road to developing a solid rotation.

pedro
02-08-2007, 12:38 PM
Nice move. Who says Castellini won't open his wallet now?

westofyou
02-08-2007, 12:40 PM
Even this move can bring the Eeyore out of some folks.

Cracks me up.

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:42 PM
Another very good deal for the Reds. Locks up the top 2 starters for the next 4 years. Then when Bailey gets up here I think he will develop into a solid 3rd starter. The Reds may finally be on the road to developing a solid rotation.

This isn't the thread for this, but Bailey's ceiling is much higher than number three....

redsfan30
02-08-2007, 12:45 PM
Before this week, Jimmy Haynes was the last Reds pitcher to recieve an extention, was he not?

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 12:47 PM
I'll have A1 with my crow.

http://rusticavenger2.home.insightbb.com/bestwishes.jpg

I must admit that this shocks me, that I was wrong, and that I like it!

Wow.... me too. I was firmly of the belief he was leaving for greener pastures. I guess I should've realized what "green" he was really after. I'm pumped!

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 12:48 PM
Great news again!

I don't think it's an unreasonable guess that (barring unforeseen disasters) by 2009 the Reds will have the best 1-2-3 starters in the National League.

Phhhl
02-08-2007, 12:50 PM
Holy Moses! Fantastic news. Things are really starting to look up. First step in building a winner is retaining the parts that are working.

Red Leader
02-08-2007, 12:51 PM
Great news again!

I don't think it's an unreasonable guess that (barring unforeseen disasters) by 2009 the Reds will have the best 1-2-3 starters in the National League.

Right now, I can see only SF (Zito - Cain - Lincecum) challenging them.

Things do change, though, so I'm not ready to guarantee that we'll have the best 1-2-3 punch in the NL. Having said that, we won't have a bunch of tired retreads in the rotation in those years, either, which is a very welcomed change.

registerthis
02-08-2007, 12:52 PM
AWESOME move. the Harang extension didn't surprise me much, but this was totally unexpected. Fantastic move, again, by Krivsky.

kbrake
02-08-2007, 12:53 PM
Great move. You got to admit its getting better.

redsmetz
02-08-2007, 12:53 PM
It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Cincinnati Reds could finally have someone win the Cy Young Award in a Reds uniform.

jojo
02-08-2007, 12:54 PM
Nice move. Who says Castellini won't open his wallet now?

Why are you assuming this increases payroll?

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 12:55 PM
This is a total shock.

Mad props to Krivsky for this deal. Two good ones in a row.

IslandRed
02-08-2007, 12:56 PM
Now that I think of it, here's the biggest impact of the extensions of Harang and Arroyo:

Before that, a lot of us were looking at 2008 as a clear dividing line, what with nearly all of the current veterans' contracts being up after that season. There was the sense that if we didn't get in the hunt soon then a teardown and rebuild could commence. And I'm not saying that's an impossibility. But by extending our top two pitchers, the front office is making a clear declaration that they intend to keep the window of opportunity open, and prospects like Bailey, Votto and Bruce are to be added to the core, not just replace the core.

pedro
02-08-2007, 12:58 PM
Why are you assuming this increases payroll?

It may not actually increase payroll this year. I don't know. But it is a significant investment nonetheless.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 01:06 PM
Now that I think of it, here's the biggest impact of the extensions of Harang and Arroyo:

Before that, a lot of us were looking at 2008 as a clear dividing line, what with nearly all of the current veterans' contracts being up after that season. There was the sense that if we didn't get in the hunt soon then a teardown and rebuild could commence. And I'm not saying that's an impossibility. But by extending our top two pitchers, the front office is making a clear declaration that they intend to keep the window of opportunity open, and prospects like Bailey, Votto and Bruce are to be added to the core, not just replace the core.

Exactly. They're keeping the window open, and I'm happy about that.

steig
02-08-2007, 01:11 PM
Great move. let's see the money but I am guessing it will be in the same ball park as harang. Adding bailey sometime this season really gets me excited about the potential of a solid staff for the next several years, especially when I think about Milton leaving after this season.

membengal
02-08-2007, 01:12 PM
I have nothing construtive to add. Just want to note how delighted I have been over the news the last two days. Like a present.

PuffyPig
02-08-2007, 01:17 PM
I'm guessing that its $11 and $12 million for the 2 additional years, with a $2M buyout for the next season, adding $25M in guaranteed money.

guttle11
02-08-2007, 01:20 PM
Well this was a nice little surprise.

Good stuff. The foundation of a title contender is nearly complete. Just need Bailey and Bruce to live up to much of the hype and add some complimentary pieces.

KoryMac5
02-08-2007, 01:24 PM
Great move, always nice to tune in and hear things like this instead of seeing that big black cloud hanging over our heads. I thought when the Harang deal was done they might approach Arroyo, but no idea it would get done this quick. Must be the mood set by Harang's signing got things rolling.

cumberlandreds
02-08-2007, 01:25 PM
This is a nice surprise. I can't believe we are talking about the Reds and being proactive in their signings! Looks like a nice rotation setting up for years to come of Harang,Arroyo,Bailey and maybe Cueto in a couple of years.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 01:27 PM
I'm not sure how I feel about this. I love that Krivsky has indentified what he wants to do and has done it. These past two days seem like he finally has a plan I can see.

But I'm leery of Arroyo getting that much money in 2009 and 2010. If he pitches like the Bronson of last year great - but if its the 2005 Bronson then not so great.

I think its a worthwhile gamble though - I hope this allows him to focus on positional talent in the years to come, cause the Reds are dangerously thin in that area in the minors.

Marc D
02-08-2007, 01:33 PM
I still question Krivsky's judgement in a lot of cases but I have zero doubt in his prowress with the contracts. Fantastic job.

An honest to God, no pixie dust required, ray of hope for a solid 1-2-3 starting rotation in the forseeable future. I'm actually thinking of loosening up the belt and moving up to just midly pessamistic about our chances. ;)

jimbo
02-08-2007, 01:36 PM
Wow, I just now got to check out the news and ESPN.com, and about fell off my chair when I saw this. Did any of us see this one coming? What a great surprise, I am now so ready for spring training to start.

M2
02-08-2007, 01:37 PM
Krivsky's looking to extend the team's competition window, which takes the pressure off of having to push the fast forward button on kids like Bailey, Cueto and Wood.

While the Harang and Arroyo deals don't solve any specific today problems, it's nice to see Krivsky's thinking about the long-term as well. We'll see if both guys can put together four mostly solid years, but I like that Krivsky is going after some stability. Hopefully we can spend the rest of the decade taking 2/5 of the rotation for granted.

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 01:39 PM
I'm guessing that its $11 and $12 million for the 2 additional years, with a $2M buyout for the next season, adding $25M in guaranteed money.

My guess is that they tore up Arroyo's current deal and put something together along the lines of

2007: 6M
2008: 7M
2009: 8M
2010: 10M
$2M buyout for 2011.

harangatang
02-08-2007, 01:42 PM
My guess is that they tore up Arroyo's current deal and put something together along the lines of

2007: 6M
2008: 7M
2009: 8M
2010: 10M
$2M buyout for 2011.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-reds-arroyo&prov=ap&type=lgns

His extension calls for a $2.5 million signing bonus, payable in 2008, and salaries of $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010.

Cincinnati has an $11 million option for 2011 with a $2 million buyout. The price of the option can escalate to $13 million, based on innings.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 01:45 PM
I'll take it - I'm personally leery of 4 yr deals for pitchers - but I think this is a good move. Nice job WayneK.at least both Bronson and Aaron are do not have high effort complicated mechanics. They both have easy low effort throwing motions, which bodes well for staying clear of arm problems.

RedFanAlways1966
02-08-2007, 01:53 PM
Great news. Pitching, pitching, pitching. No one can predict the future (injuries, performance); however, based on last year, this is a good signing.

Harang and now Arroyo. I'll take those deals and be happy. Pitching. pitching, pitching.

:thumbup:

remdog
02-08-2007, 01:54 PM
Good move but not a great move.

First of all, kudos to Krivsky for being proactive in retaining his own players. :clap: This will help players understand that if they produce management will be aggressive about rewarding them. Long-term result : good.

OTOH, this does nothing about '07 except to make me think that the Reds are 'mailing it in' and hoping for a long-shot cindarella season by 6-8 guys. The two signings add no one on the field this year that wouldn't have been there anyway. Short-term result: not so good.

IMO, this pretty much says that the plan is not to rush Homer. With Harang and BA tied up for 4 years the Reds can afford to do things right with Bailey. Short and long-term result: good.

Of course, if the Reds tank early and Arroyo reverts to pre-'06 form, it will make moving him at the trade deadline that much tougher. Short-term result: not so good.

All in all, an OK move for the short-term, a better move for the long-term.

Rem

TeamBoone
02-08-2007, 02:03 PM
I wish it was that simple. If they're healthy, they'll be here for the next 4 years.

That can be said for ANY player. If the possibility of injury to a healthy guy is highly considered in every single transaction, no one would ever be signed LT!

I'm happy! Shocked, but happy! :p:

wtg Bronson.

jmcclain19
02-08-2007, 02:06 PM
Right now - with salaries, signing bonuses & buyouts for 2007 added in - here are the numbers.

Reds Committed Payroll (If all option years are exercised)
2007 - $74.5 mil
2008 - $57.7 mil
2009 - $45.5 mil
2010 - $29.5 mil
2011 - $23.8 mil

Shaknb8k
02-08-2007, 02:06 PM
Im not throwing out this year by any means but take a look at '08. $10.65 million for Arroyo and Harang. It will be interesting to see how Dunn's '08 option is handled.

Not only 2007 but also 2008 are both steals for these two players. Once the price goes up a lot for them some of these awful contracts will be off the books ('07-Milton/ '08-Griffey) as well as the farm system should be starting to produce. Call me crazy but I think Krivsky's Plan is starting to become pretty clear.

Gallen5862
02-08-2007, 02:12 PM
This is great news. I love this move. It shows the team and the fans that ownership is willing to spend money to lock in key players.

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 02:13 PM
For what it's worth, using PECOTA's MORP (Marginal value Over Replacement Player), which is meant to be a measurement VORP translated in to free agent dollars....



Salary MORP Difference VORP
2007 $4,125,000 $12,900,000 -$8,775,000 29.2
bonus $2,000,000 $0 +$2,000,000
2008 $3,950,000 $10,725,000 -$6,275,000 23.0
2009 $9,500,000 $8,525,000 +$975,000 16.4
2010 $11,000,000 $6,925,000 +$4,075,000 13.4
buyout $2,000,000 $0 +$2,000,000
Total $32,575,000 $39,075,000 +$6,500,000

2011 $9,000,000 $5,275,000 +$3,725,000 9.7
Total $41,575,000 $44,035,000 +$2,460,000


Basically we're getting a ton of value in the next two seasons and not getting value after that. We still do ok in the end. Of course, the caveats:

- Arroyo wasn't a FA until '09 (when we no longer get a good dea in terms of MORP). In other words. According to PECOTA, we just agreed to pay him more than he would've gotten during the period he was already locked up and more than he will be worth during the extended portion.
- PECOTA uses the possiblity of a devestating injury in its calculations. That is, a prediction of 25 GS is the average of all the possibilities including 0 starts and 35 starts. On AVERAGE, PECOTA works well, but when playing time differs significantly (ie. if Arroyo stays healthy), it's valuations are way off. The confidence you should have in ANY projection should fall off the table after 2-3 years because of the variability of health, if nothing else.
- The true FA market could swing wildly. In a market where Ted Lilly gets $10 MM per, if Arroyo can sustain his value, he's a bargain. But we don't know what the market will be like when he would have hit FA in 2009.
- I don't know if MORP is inflation adjusted. The 11MM he's getting in 2010 is only worth about 9MM in 2007 MLB dollars.

remdog
02-08-2007, 02:16 PM
I think this bodes well for Adam Dunn. With these two deals, the Reds have shown that they will pay players that produce. I look for Dunn to have an improved year in '07 and I think the Reds and Adam have a better chance to get together on a contract than they did two days ago.

Rem

pedro
02-08-2007, 02:21 PM
The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 02:23 PM
I think this bodes wll for Adam Dunn. I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

Plus when the big bucks is due Harang and Arroyo is when Jr and Dunn come off the payroll.

Benihana
02-08-2007, 02:26 PM
Great, great news! I can't recall another bout of back-to-back days of universally pleasing Reds personell news in many years. Harang-Arroyo-Bailey for the next four years sounds too good to be true. Let Lohse, Saarloos, and (gasp) Milton be the stopgaps before the Cuetos and Woods of the world come to bear, and the Wayne's plan is looking good to quite good.

Encarnacion, Phillips, Dunn, Bruce and Votto provide a pretty good core of position players. Now lets get our bullpen on track!

remdog
02-08-2007, 02:33 PM
I see it the other way, I think it is more of a sign that Dunn will be gone. WayneK is building his pitching and defense team. Dunn seems unlikely to be a part of that vision. BTW, I hope I'm wrong.

I can see how you could draw that conclusion, 85. But someone has to be able to hit the ball out of the infield no matter how good your pitching or D is. If Dunn and Jr. are gone it shifts the burden to EE and ???. To figure that Bruce and Votto can walk into the Majors and, along with EE, carry the lineup would be folly. With this move the Reds seem to be saying that they prefer the player they know. (shrug) You could be correct though.

Rem

Heath
02-08-2007, 02:33 PM
Great move. You got to admit its getting better.

I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.

RedsManRick
02-08-2007, 02:37 PM
Good move but not a great move.

First of all, kudos to Krivsky for being proactive in retaining his own players. :clap: This will help players understand that if they produce management will be aggressive about rewarding them. Long-term result : good.

OTOH, this does nothing about '07 except to make me think that the Reds are 'mailing it in' and hoping for a long-shot cindarella season by 6-8 guys. The two signings add no one on the field this year that wouldn't have been there anyway. Short-term result: not so good.

IMO, this pretty much says that the plan is not to rush Homer. With Harang and BA tied up for 4 years the Reds can afford to do things right with Bailey. Short and long-term result: good.

Of course, if the Reds tank early and Arroyo reverts to pre-'06 form, it will make moving him at the trade deadline that much tougher. Short-term result: not so good.

All in all, an OK move for the short-term, a better move for the long-term.

Rem

Good point. However, I think you can add to your point about the long term value. As we move in to FA in coming years, they know that the Reds have a core signed long term and perhaps would feel more comfortable about committing themselves to the team. This has been a significant problem for us and these signings should make a good impression.

Caveat Emperor
02-08-2007, 03:04 PM
The goes a long way towards creating the appearance of a team culture that will attract players to come to or stay in Cincinnati. The Reds didn't have have give Arroyo more money over the next two years, but it appears that they have. Players like it when they feel they are being dealt with fairly and you can bet that they all talk with other players about how they feel they are being treated by management. I think this will pay dividends towards that end for the Reds.

Yup. In order to turn any franchise around, you have to create a climate that welcomes top talent in.

That was the hope when Griffey came, but the management never followed through and continued the momentum.

pedro
02-08-2007, 03:08 PM
I just read the particulars and Arroyo gets a 2.5 million dollar signing bonus next year so that's the only change over next 2 years.

Jpup
02-08-2007, 03:14 PM
Wow, I never expected this. I guess the poor moutch talk is going to stop. Congrats to Bronson, I guess he like Cincinnati after all. It's time to turn the Reds into something great and Krivsky has made 2 good steps in the last 2 days.

With the Twins, I believe, Krivsky did a lot of the contracts. He's showing how good he is with that now. While I think Arroyo's value will never be higher than it is right now, it's a pretty good deal for both sides.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 03:21 PM
What a good week!!

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :beerme: :clap: :clap: :clap:

kbrake
02-08-2007, 03:23 PM
I will have to admit it's getting better.

Getting Better all the time.


Was wondering if anyone would catch that. I dont know when I get good news like this I always tend to break out in song.

Kc61
02-08-2007, 03:23 PM
I hate to ruin my record by being too optimistic, but this is very exciting news. I am delighted that the Reds recognize how rare it is for a (Reds) team to have two starters of this caliber and that both will be around for awhile.

It really does lead you to believe that ownership and Krivsky are, in their own way, trying to build a winner.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 03:27 PM
Was wondering if anyone would catch that. I dont know when I get good news like this I always tend to break out in song.

We have great news for anyone who loves bad news.

Heath
02-08-2007, 03:30 PM
We have great news for anyone who loves bad news.

What would You do if I sang out of tune.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 03:33 PM
What would You do if I sang out of tune.

I would stand up and walk out on you.

flyer85
02-08-2007, 03:34 PM
Was wondering if anyone would catch that. "couldn't get much worse"

BRM
02-08-2007, 03:34 PM
"couldn't get much worse"

Sure it could. He could have traded Adam Dunn for Jon Lieber. :evil:

Jpup
02-08-2007, 03:47 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

BRM
02-08-2007, 03:53 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)


What exactly would the "Krivsky bashers" be wrong about? I see people criticizing bad moves and applauding good moves. I see lots of applauding in this thread.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 03:55 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

Wrong about what?

RedEye
02-08-2007, 03:57 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong.

My name is RedEye, and I am a hard Krivsky basher.

As a hard Krivsky basher, I will now stand up and admit that the guy does know how to negotiate a contract.

I will also admit that he has been working hard and that he does appear, after all, to have some sort of plan (pitching and defense à la Terry Ryan).

I will now sit down and not admit anything else because I don't think we're out of the woods quite yet, folks. It's not bashing Krivsky to say that the jury is still out.

He's shown a good ability to re-sign our own talent for reasonable prices (Dunn, Harang, now Arroyo). Beyond that, he's still got a lot to prove.

TRF
02-08-2007, 03:59 PM
it's interesting that some of the hardest Krivsky bashers have not stood up and admitted they were wrong. The day is still young though. :)

I have hated some of his moves and loved others. He was not my first choice, but things are looking up and I can start to see his plan now.

I had intended to stay away until mid ST, but the news of the last two days pulled me back in.

It's a good move, but I'll temper it with the following:

As others have pointed out, contracts are what Kriv does well. It's no surprise that he got Harang signed. It is mildly surprising that he got Arroyo to sign an extension. Props to him that he did so.

But...

Both were kind of obvious moves to make. WK hit the jackpot with Arroyo when he traded for him. He way overpitched any expectations anyone had for him, including Arroyo himself I'd bet.

Now stop signing crappy relief pitchers, over the hill, past their prime relief pitchers, and dreck SP.

Then I'll be really happy.

I'm thrilled one of the best 1-2 combos in baseball is locked up for the next 4 years.

I'm not thrilled that he saw Joe Mays, Sunny Kim, Kyle Lohse and Kirk Saarloos as rotation possibilities.

WK did a good thing twice this week. doesn't erase the bad, but signing existing top tiered talent isn't the same as evaluating top tiered talent. 2006 says Arroyo was a fluke deal in terms of acquisition by WK. Name one other pitcher he acquired that really made an impact for more than 3 weeks.

there Jpup... feel better now that one of us WK bashers has spoken up?

BRM
02-08-2007, 04:00 PM
Name one other pitcher he acquired that really made an impact for more than 3 weeks.


Joe Mays had an impact. Granted, it was a negative impact but it an impact nonetheless. ;)

Jpup
02-08-2007, 04:04 PM
What exactly would the "Krivsky bashers" be wrong about? I see people criticizing bad moves and applauding good moves. I see lots of applauding in this thread.

that he has no plan. He obviously does.

M2
02-08-2007, 04:21 PM
that he has no plan. He obviously does.

And that plan is?

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:22 PM
And that plan is?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same
But the plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been
And it makes me think of everyone
And the cause of this is evident
But the remedy cannot be found
Cause it's so well hidden
This history lesson doesn't make any sense
In any less than ten thousand year increments
Of common sense

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:25 PM
And that plan is?

build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No..chicks dig the long ball...and 10-9 games are fun.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Will it work? I don't know. As much as fans (myself included at times) clamor for this, that, or the other....KrivDog stays the course of HIS plan.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:28 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Every animal has a backbone, if baseball was an animal then defense would be its backbone.

Winning teams run, and you need a backbone to run.

But first you have to take a step forward.

Benihana
02-08-2007, 04:28 PM
Thank you Dan Wilson, Bobby Ayala, and Reggie Sanders!

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:29 PM
Every animal has a backbone, if baseball was an animal then defense would be its backbone.

Winning teams run, and you need a backbone to run.

But first you have to take a step forward.

I think this is a step forward.....the package isn't complete yet, but I think it's a step forward.

Chip R
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
And that plan is?


Isn't it obvious?

1. Collect old relief pitchers
2. ???
3. Profit

dsmith421
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
Just saying "pitching and defense" is facile and explains nothing.

Krivsky's plan, as I see it, is to put together a core of players who can challenge for honors beginning in 2008 and more seriously in 2009-11. The resignings of Harang and Arroyo clearly indicate a desire to create a window during which the current ML core (Harang, Arroyo, Dunn if re-signed, Encarnacion, maybe Coffey and Phillips) mesh with our highest-rated prospects (Votto, Bailey, Bruce, Cueto).

Before the signings of Harang and Arroyo this was in no way evident.

If this is the aim, then I'm all for it. But it still does not justify tying up as much money as the club has recently in old relief pitchers, bench players who can't hit, and Kyle freaking Lohse. Those moves make me question whether Krivsky will be able to identify the complementary pieces to plug in if the above plan comes to fruition.

fisch11
02-08-2007, 04:32 PM
I was stoked the other day that we would have Harang and Arroyo for 2 more years together, now it's 4. Homer comes up and we have a solid front 3 in the rotation. Now fix the bullpen.

NYMoose
02-08-2007, 04:34 PM
And that plan is?

Maybe he is actually Fred Tuttle - "A Man with a Plan"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Tuttle

M2
02-08-2007, 04:34 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

Sexy? No.........but having a team of all slug and no glove has gotten the Reds where, exactly?

Hmm, I think if I were building a team around pitching and defense and I were the Reds GM, I'd be trying to bring in more young arms so that the team might, you know, actually pitch well as a whole. Extending Harang and Arroyo is a good idea and it buys the club more time to put itself together, but the Reds literally might need to find another 8-10 pitchers to go with them (near-term and long-term).

I'd probably also look into finding a corner OF with a good glove and perhaps a young catcher with some unrealized promise. I for sure wouldn't allow Ken Griffey Jr. to patrol CF.

I give Krivsky credit for having done some things on the pitching and defense front when his immediate predecessor let those things go to pot, but I think it's little more than lip service to call it a full-fledged plan at the moment.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 04:37 PM
Hmm, I think if I were building a team around pitching and defense and I were the Reds GM, I'd be trying to bring in more young arms so that the team might, you know, actually pitch well as a whole.

I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

BRM
02-08-2007, 04:39 PM
Is the 2007 Reds defense that much better than last year's version? I see Gonzo but what else has Wayne done that would constitute a defensive upgrade? I know moving Griffey out of CF would be a BIG sign that he's serious about improving that area. We'll find out if that happens in the next couple of months.

M2
02-08-2007, 04:40 PM
Maybe he is actually Fred Tuttle - "A Man with a Plan"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Tuttle

Tuttle may have been the greatest politician of the 20th century.

Yachtzee
02-08-2007, 04:48 PM
I think its a great move!

Also, I wonder how much the fact that the Reds seem very willing to promote his music career played in his mind. I think the biggest change I've seen from the Bob Castellini regime is a willingness to promote the players beyond the traditional game-day give aways.

TRF
02-08-2007, 04:51 PM
I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

Ahem. Dan O'Brien says hi.

And that's not praising DanO, but it's the same plan.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 04:53 PM
Tuttle may have been the greatest politician of the 20th century.


Tuttle died of a heart attack after a day spent digging potatoes, at his home in Tunbridge, Vermont. He was buried in his overalls, with a pen in his pocket for autograph signing and a can of Moxie by his side.

The Moxie was probably included to kill him in case he really wasn't dead when he was buried.

Ltlabner
02-08-2007, 04:54 PM
Exactly. They're keeping the window open, and I'm happy about that.

Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

Two good days in a row!

remdog
02-08-2007, 04:57 PM
build a team around pitching and defense.

So, let's look at that. What pitchers has he added for '07 that put a song in your heart? I look at the list and I sing a dirge.

How about defense? Sure, Gonzo is better than Clayton but his shadow (Castro) was already signed. Other than that, I haven't seen any defensive 'upgrades'. It's obvious that he intends to give Conine a lot of playing time in the OF and at 1st base and he's sub-par at either spot. He traded a better defensive catcher (LaRue) in order to go with a tandem of Ross and Valentin which would certainly be below league average.

Mind you, from my viewpoint this is all predicated on my opinion that the '07 division title is there for the taking. If you don't care about or think the Reds can win in '07 then these moves make some sense. But one more solid+ starter makes the Reds the betting choice, IMO. And Wayne could have had that for less than the $23M he spent on dreck and still have done the deals of the last two days!!

Sometimes you happen upon a unique window of opportunity and you have to take advantage of that! I believe that, in this division, '07 is one of those rare opportunities. If you don't share my viewpoint I completely understand why my rants and rambleings make no sense to you and I'm fine with that. (shrug)

I simply think that we missed a terrific opportunity to jump in front of the pack in '07. And now, with the signings of the last two days, that advantage of winning in '07 would have been even greater.

JMO.

Rem

Will M
02-08-2007, 05:13 PM
Is the 2007 Reds defense that much better than last year's version? I see Gonzo but what else has Wayne done that would constitute a defensive upgrade? I know moving Griffey out of CF would be a BIG sign that he's serious about improving that area. We'll find out if that happens in the next couple of months.

EE and Phillips are both expected to be better defensively with a year under their belts.
They both seem to be hard worker and have the skill sets to be good defenders.

Moving Griffey out of CF will be HUGE. He just doesn't have the range that Freel and Deno do.

M2
02-08-2007, 05:13 PM
I think he wants to develop those in the minor leagues...

So for the time being, he brings in experienced pitchers and crosses his fingers. :)

Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

While these moves do give the Reds a much better long-term profile, I still think Krivsky's mostly reactive as a GM. While he's made some mistakes and I'm completely underwhelmed by his offseason acquisitions, I think he's an all right GM. He's good with contracts, even when he's brought in some players I'd rather see the team avoid they haven't been on albatross deals. He reacts quickly when he's got a perceived need or when an opportunity presents itself. He does seem to routinely take stock of his team in order to determine what it needs. Most of all, he seems to have a good disposition - nononsense approach, willing to try something different, might even be one of those guys who'll learn things on the job.

Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

corkedbat
02-08-2007, 05:22 PM
Great moves!

I'd love to see them somehow pickup a solid young lefty to stick in with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey, then get a bat, closer or something (anything) useful for Milton and or Lohse and maybe a spare BP arm or two.


Locking up Arroyo is a solid move to me. If nothing else, youhave him happy and appreciated for to more year and then he should be still attractive (unless theres a major injury) in a couple of years - about the time that Cueto and/or Wood are about ready to come on line.

I still get the feeling that there will be one more semi-significant acquisition before the season starts for some reason.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 05:23 PM
Oddly enough, Johnny, you are the first person I thought of when I heard the news. That is, your commentary on the window of opportunity that we have available to us. These contracts most certinally extend that window a bit further, and do so for a reasonable amount of money.

I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 05:32 PM
I had been harping on that "window" pretty hard for the past few months. I was thinking about 2008 and hearing the clock tick louder and louder. Now it's gone quiet.

If nothing else, this gives the team some breathing room. Let's hope this allows Krivsky to focus on the team's three main weaknesses either now (doubtful) or next winter: a #3 starter, a closer, and a RH bat.

I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

Kc61
02-08-2007, 05:49 PM
Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

I'm sure he'd like to develop those arms too. Problem is that the best arm he got in the 2006 draft was a high schooler who won't show up until after the Harang and Arroyo extensions are done (some might say Sean Watson, but that guy does nothing for me). Outside of Homer Bailey (who turns 21 in May and it can't be overstated how much kids that age struggle in the majors) there really aren't any starters on the near horizon.

If this is a plan, a conscious effort to deliver something specific on a given timetable, then the Reds need to find more arms from outside. There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.


Anyway, Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.

I think Krivsky is a good strategic planner. But he has a longer-term horizon than some would like.

But for many of us, the emphasis on short-term results was based on the "window" of having two good starters for a year or two. Now, with these signings, you start to get the picture of a longer term plan.

Obviously, more starting pitchers are needed as is a closer. But with a somewhat longer time horizon, you can see a rotation shaping up. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey plus two. Obviously, there will have to be focus on the two and a closer.

Defense will be emphasized. Offense is the last piece, with no big financial commitments to offense until the pitching and defense is solidified. Therefore, you get signings like Conine, rather than a more expensive righty bat.

As for the draft, looks to me like Krivsky wants a lot of picks, a lot of depth. Not going so much for stars (which is hit or miss) but going for depth with a lot of trading chips.

I think it is a plan. Execution? We'll see.

Aronchis
02-08-2007, 05:49 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 05:53 PM
I think this is extraordinary. Everything good that anybody has said, I basically agree with. To the bad points, I say: trade value. I hope that doesn't happen, but it's there if it needs to be.

No deal in baseball should be made on a psychological basis, but psychologically, the effects of this are huge. Administratively, the front office has an enormous monkey off itsr back. To not have to worry about the front 2 starting rotations spots (barring injury) is huge. The strengths are solidified. Now they can truly take all their time and money to address the weaknesses. Psychologically for the players: Harang and Arroyo are set, they can do their jobs. The rest of the players are shown that the organization is committed to a long-term, winning team, and I believe that players like Dunn stand to step up to that. Players outside the organization are shown that two of the top NL pitchers -- who stood to make a good deal of FA money in this market -- want to pitch in Cincinnati long-term. That means something.

I swear, I spend an awful lot of days cursing myself for being so emotionally invested in a baseball team -- and a baseball team that has been largely awful most of the time I've been following it to boot. Most of the time I honestly think it's damaging to me. It's time consuming and it's draining, and I wonder if my life would really be that different without baseball in it. And days like this, I understand. In fact I wonder how anyone with great capacity for joy in their souls can afford not to follow baseball.

Marc D
02-08-2007, 06:00 PM
Finger crossing, I knew that had to be a central tenet of the plan.

There simply isn't enough talent in the pipeline to develop what the team needs.

Krivsky's got a number of traits worthy of praise, but strategic planning doesn't seem to be one of them.


As always, insightful and spot on.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 06:01 PM
When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

When your name is John Schurholtz?

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:05 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.




You're spoiling the party :) :party:

pedro
02-08-2007, 06:07 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

I think you're going to be proven wrong about Arroyo. Very wrong.

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 06:08 PM
I think in 2008 Homer Bailey becomes that number 3 starter - he gets a taste this year (hopefully Papelbohn style, ie out of the pen) and then in 08 is in the rotation. Provided he tears up Triple AAA past the all-star break.

So I think that becomes servicable #4 starter, closer and RH bat, IMO

I wish they wouldn't wait that long, or put that much pressure on Bailey. Unfortunately, looking at the crop of free agent SPs for 2008, I think it becomes a #4 starter by default. The only one's in the Reds' price range figure to be Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook. Jennings would be fine, but Westbrook is a #4 at best.

StillFunkyB
02-08-2007, 06:10 PM
This is wonderful news.

Keep it comin Wayne!

reds44
02-08-2007, 06:33 PM
How can anybody say Krivsky has no plan anymore? It so obvious it's all about pitching and defense. He preached it last year, and now he's doing it this year. With Harang and Arroyo locked up for 4 years, you have a better one to punch then we have seen in Cincinnati then we have seen for a long time. Homer, at worst, will be up here next year and if he is half of what we expect him to be that is a great 1-2-3 punch. Then he has guys like Loshe and Saarloos who are still young and have some upside. I like Saarloos more then Loshe, but still if either one of them is even decent then that's 4 solid guys. You can then decide if the other is worhty of the 5th spot, or you can see if Cueto is the guy.

Then look at his offense. He went out at gave 14 million to one of the best defensive SS in baseball (if not the best), and last year he traded for Phillips and in less then a year he has set up one of the best DP combos and baseball. Combine that with moving Griffey out of CF (which will happen) and with Ryan Denorfia (yes, you like that?) in CF, you have one of the best defenses up the middle in baseball. Also, as many trade rumors as you hear about Dunn and as much as you here about EE's defense, they are both still here. He has kept a real core of young, sluggers to hit balls into the moon deck. He didn't WANT a lineup full of sluggers who strikeout alot and play bad defense, so he traded Lopez and Kearns for pitching. I'm not going to tell you he got good value in return, but I think Majewski and Bray will be solid relievers for this team. He felt the need to unload some sluggers, and if you can't trade Griffey I would much rather have EE/Dunn then Lopez/Kearns. And as for as many people on this board wanting Griffey out of CF, I'd be glad Kearns is gone if I was you. If he was Griffey would be in CF.

Then Krivsky hasn't traded anything of much value out of his farm system. Bruce, Bailey, Votto, and Cueto all are not going to be touched. That is the core of the farm system, and all guys that will be in Cincy in the next 2-3 years. Now, I am not going to tell you he had the greatest draft in the world his first year, but I am also not going to say he can't draft either after that year. If Stubbs can eventually come up, hit decently and play a GG CF, that is what Wayne is looking for.

I think people can't look past THE TRADE and all the bullpen guys he has gone after. As for the trade, I am not going to make an excuse for it. It's a trade that can not and should not have been made. However, Krivsky has made alot more good trade then bad ones. Say what you want about how Ross and Hatteberg and to a lesser extent Phillips are due for down years, but until I see it those were all very solid moves as they stand right now. When you look at the crappy bullpen he started out with (and the crappy starting staff) Krivsky had to get alot of arms. He is still looking for the right combinations of guys to fit in. Also, say want you want about the old guys like Coninie and Hatteberg he signed, but those are strictly fill in guys until younger prospects get up here. The thing I like about Wayne is he didn't hand out abunch of stupid contracts this offseason, but in my mind he undoubtly improved the team.

Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:37 PM
By the way, Feb. 8th, 2006, Wayne Krivsky was hired as Reds GM.

Arroyo was his first move, I believe. How appropriate. He's now extended.

Wheelhouse
02-08-2007, 06:37 PM
Guys, one thing that has not been mentioned about the club's position on Bailey--it's really the smart position to have. Privately, I bet the plan is to bring him north after ST, in the rotation THIS YEAR. Publicly, they are saying AAA so that if he doesn't do well in ST, it's not a failure if he goes to Louisville, because that was the plan in the first place. What would the Reds gain by saying they expect Homer in the rotation this year? Nothing. All he could do by the end of ST is fail. By saying AAA the only direction he can go is up.

TRF
02-08-2007, 06:42 PM
Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.


Jeff Conine
Juan Castro
A slew of over 38 years old relievers, some who were NEVER very good signed to MULTI year contracts.
A bizarre infatuation with a guy that has never succeeded above A+ that has to be on the roster all year long.
Trading away your BEST defensive catcher.
More than likely starting Kirk Saarloos. ugh.


Oh, and his best prospects were picked by the previous GM as his first draft flat out sucked.

He signed his two best pitchers. I would expect no less from ANY GM!

Tom Servo
02-08-2007, 06:45 PM
Next up: Signing Milton long-term :evil:

KronoRed
02-08-2007, 06:48 PM
Next up: Signing Milton long-term :evil:

Hey he puts a decent season together it wouldn't shock me ;)

Johnny Footstool
02-08-2007, 06:50 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

BRM
02-08-2007, 06:52 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.

RedsBaron
02-08-2007, 06:53 PM
I have the same reaction to Arroyo's signing as I did to Harang's signing: :thumbup: --this doesn't mean that the moves will pay off, there are no guarantees and any long term contract is a gamble, but, under present conditions, these signings are gambles I would make-so:thumbup: .

pedro
02-08-2007, 06:53 PM
I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.


It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 06:55 PM
I think we are about to receive some posts telling us the bullpen is much improved over last year.

That is yet to be determined.

:D

BRM
02-08-2007, 06:56 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

I agree it's a bit better than last year. It's still not a good one IMO but it is better.

M2
02-08-2007, 06:58 PM
I think it is a plan. Execution? We'll see.

So signing Harang and Arroyo, assuming Bailey's a given, getting three more pitchers somehow and maybe doing something about the offense is what you call a plan?

It's what I call reactive GMing. I don't have a problem with that per se, but it's a "let's see if everything breaks our way" gambit. What I don't see Wayne Krivsky doing is loading for bear like, say, the Marlins.

Puffy
02-08-2007, 07:01 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

How do you know that pedro?

If history has taught us anything its that bullpen arms are highly volatile from one year to the next - its just as possible that the bullpen could once again implode.

I'm not saying its going to happen, but it could. Weathers could put up an era over 5, as could Stanton, and Cormier, and Majewski, and Coffey. In short, its not like we have one sure thing in the bullpen - not one. So to say its definitely improved is wrong. It might be improved, hell it might be an 85% chance its improved, but bullpen arms, especially non-dominant ones, are volatile.

TRF
02-08-2007, 07:03 PM
It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.


Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:05 PM
By the way, Feb. 8th, 2006, Wayne Krivsky was hired as Reds GM.

Arroyo was his first move, I believe. How appropriate. He's now extended.
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:06 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?
And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

pedro
02-08-2007, 07:06 PM
How do you know that pedro?

If history has taught us anything its that bullpen arms are highly volatile from one year to the next - its just as possible that the bullpen could once again implode.

I'm not saying its going to happen, but it could. Weathers could put up an era over 5, as could Stanton, and Cormier, and Majewski, and Coffey. In short, its not like we have one sure thing in the bullpen - not one. So to say its definitely improved is wrong. It might be improved, hell it might be an 85% chance its improved, but bullpen arms, especially non-dominant ones, are volatile.

depth. like you i expect a couple/few of these guys to wash out, but despite the tepidity of the individual pitchers, there is quite a lot more depth at this point than there was going into spring training last year. don't underestimate the value of consistent mediocrity.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:13 PM
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 07:13 PM
And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.

TC81190
02-08-2007, 07:14 PM
If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.


And I still say Shafer needs to be here, up in the big league pen.


Stupid Saarlooses...

pedro
02-08-2007, 07:15 PM
Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Brian Shackelford pitched all of 16.1 innings last year putting up an ERA of 7.61 and is still on the 40 man IIRC. Yeah, he's good against lefties, but he's also still an option so I honestly don't know what the problem is. Plus he sucks against RH so he's just a LOOGY.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 07:19 PM
If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

I'm pretty sure this is correct too.

BTW the Sporting News's baseball preview issue has Adam Dunn listed as one of the premier free agents after 2007 :bang:

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:25 PM
Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.
Those are all good reasons for getting rid of LaRue. I'm just saying that if people are claiming that The Plan is about pitching and defense, and if "up the middle" is where such a team would want top-flight gloves, yet we're going to see Ross/Valentin/Moeller at catcher, then maybe The Plan is as much a mirage as The Trade's payflex defense is.

Hey, I like these latest signings. I like that they reward achievement, maintain some fan-friendly roster continuity, and extend the team's window of opportunity. I'm just not convinced that these validate the presence of any plan beyond "sign stopgaps until some youngsters hopefully pan out."

lollipopcurve
02-08-2007, 07:26 PM
The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

The plan is clear -- invest in pitching. Defense -- signing Gonzalez, asking Griffey to consider a move to a corner spot., etc., is also clearly a priority, as Krivsky has said it would be. For me, that's sufficient evidence of a plan at work. For those who seem to be saying a plan constitutes being able to strengthen your team in the optimal manner in every area of possible weakness in a single year (i.e, let's get a Detroit-style bullpen tout de suite, thanks, or let's get us a #3 starter chop chop), I'd say there's no GM who can have that kind of plan and accomplish it. If there is such a GM, who is it?

Will M
02-08-2007, 07:28 PM
How can anybody say Krivsky has no plan anymore? It so obvious it's all about pitching and defense. He preached it last year, and now he's doing it this year. With Harang and Arroyo locked up for 4 years, you have a better one to punch then we have seen in Cincinnati then we have seen for a long time. Homer, at worst, will be up here next year and if he is half of what we expect him to be that is a great 1-2-3 punch. Then he has guys like Loshe and Saarloos who are still young and have some upside. I like Saarloos more then Loshe, but still if either one of them is even decent then that's 4 solid guys. You can then decide if the other is worhty of the 5th spot, or you can see if Cueto is the guy.

Then look at his offense. He went out at gave 14 million to one of the best defensive SS in baseball (if not the best), and last year he traded for Phillips and in less then a year he has set up one of the best DP combos and baseball. Combine that with moving Griffey out of CF (which will happen) and with Ryan Denorfia (yes, you like that?) in CF, you have one of the best defenses up the middle in baseball. Also, as many trade rumors as you hear about Dunn and as much as you here about EE's defense, they are both still here. He has kept a real core of young, sluggers to hit balls into the moon deck. He didn't WANT a lineup full of sluggers who strikeout alot and play bad defense, so he traded Lopez and Kearns for pitching. I'm not going to tell you he got good value in return, but I think Majewski and Bray will be solid relievers for this team. He felt the need to unload some sluggers, and if you can't trade Griffey I would much rather have EE/Dunn then Lopez/Kearns. And as for as many people on this board wanting Griffey out of CF, I'd be glad Kearns is gone if I was you. If he was Griffey would be in CF.

Then Krivsky hasn't traded anything of much value out of his farm system. Bruce, Bailey, Votto, and Cueto all are not going to be touched. That is the core of the farm system, and all guys that will be in Cincy in the next 2-3 years. Now, I am not going to tell you he had the greatest draft in the world his first year, but I am also not going to say he can't draft either after that year. If Stubbs can eventually come up, hit decently and play a GG CF, that is what Wayne is looking for.

I think people can't look past THE TRADE and all the bullpen guys he has gone after. As for the trade, I am not going to make an excuse for it. It's a trade that can not and should not have been made. However, Krivsky has made alot more good trade then bad ones. Say what you want about how Ross and Hatteberg and to a lesser extent Phillips are due for down years, but until I see it those were all very solid moves as they stand right now. When you look at the crappy bullpen he started out with (and the crappy starting staff) Krivsky had to get alot of arms. He is still looking for the right combinations of guys to fit in. Also, say want you want about the old guys like Coninie and Hatteberg he signed, but those are strictly fill in guys until younger prospects get up here. The thing I like about Wayne is he didn't hand out abunch of stupid contracts this offseason, but in my mind he undoubtly improved the team.

Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.

I agree.

I am thrilled that Wayne has not traded a single top prospect from the farm system and yet has worked his you know what off improving the team.

MrCinatit
02-08-2007, 07:29 PM
Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

I believe Dan0's ultimate downfall came from sitting on his hands and not showing any ability to sign Dunn. All Dan had been able to accomplish was to sign the younger players to a series of one-year contracts. Except for LaRue.
It took Wayne to come in and get the Dunn contract dunn.

Very nice move, btw. 12 million now is very reasonable - 12 million five years from now could be a freaking steal.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:37 PM
His downfall was also trading Casey for garbage.

Castellini didn't like that.

Sabo Fan
02-08-2007, 07:39 PM
Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds, or basically duplicates his 2005 season, with a small improvement because he'll be in the NL. I'm concerned about his struggles in July and August of last year as an indicator that he may either wear down or that NL hitters had adjusted to his stuff. With Harang, it's obvious that he's had success for a few years in this league while with Arroyo I'm wondering if 2006 is an outlier and he'll just regress to the mean next year and the Reds will be stuck with a guy who isn't much more than a #4 starter making #2 starter money.

Simply put, it's not the worst move in the world, but Arroyo had a real nice deal for the next two years from a team standpoint, one that made him very marketable should the desire arise to move him. Now, should he not perform up to expectations in 2007 he all of a sudden becomes extremely hard to move. Personally, I would have cashed him in this winter when teams were spending wildly on pitching mediocrity.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 07:43 PM
While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds, or basically duplicates his 2005 season, with a small improvement because he'll be in the NL. I'm concerned about his struggles in July and August of last year as an indicator that he may either wear down or that NL hitters had adjusted to his stuff.

His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

Redsland
02-08-2007, 07:45 PM
For me, these signings are the final nail in the coffin of that old Lindner mentality this board can't let go of. You know, the one that claims, "this cheap team is too cheap to compete because it's cheap."

Two words that abruptly stopped coming out of the front office once Castellini took over are "small" and "market." He stated last year that there was enough money to bump the payroll at the deadline if need be, which the previous regime would never have contemplated. And this offseason he's added, what, $15 million to the payroll? He was perfectly content to eat the contracts of people like Womack, White, Hammond, and Williams without so much as a comment, and then quietly spent millions on LaRue's going away card. No one from the front office opined that two $50,000 Rule 5 picks were "big investments," which certainly would have been the case a few years ago. Nearly every draft pick got signed without any fuss at all. And now we have a good, young core locked up for years to come.

If nothing else, these signings signal that Bob is a man of his word, and that the days of crying poor are gone. We can compete. Or, if we can't, the reason has nothing to do with money.

reds44
02-08-2007, 07:54 PM
Jeff Conine
Juan Castro
A slew of over 38 years old relievers, some who were NEVER very good signed to MULTI year contracts.
A bizarre infatuation with a guy that has never succeeded above A+ that has to be on the roster all year long.
Trading away your BEST defensive catcher.
More than likely starting Kirk Saarloos. ugh.


Oh, and his best prospects were picked by the previous GM as his first draft flat out sucked.

He signed his two best pitchers. I would expect no less from ANY GM!
What about those points? How do they fit into the plan?

Platoon partner with Hatte until Votto takes over full time.
Defensive replacement who has a knack for getting big hits.
Rule 5 pick, how do you know he will be on the roster all year long. What if he is and suceeds?
Oh you like LaRue but don't get Castro? LaRue sucked last year and had a bad attitude.
See my post about prospects. How do you know his suck?
Boo ground pitchers. It's his fault he had 1 SP when he came here?

CrackerJack
02-08-2007, 07:59 PM
Yes good for some longer term stability around these parts for once.

I hope part of his contract stipulated that he could no longer force his bad cover band/music onto the general public from here on out within the greater Cincinnati area. That would just be icing.

Caveat Emperor
02-08-2007, 08:00 PM
Simply put, it's not the worst move in the world, but Arroyo had a real nice deal for the next two years from a team standpoint, one that made him very marketable should the desire arise to move him. Now, should he not perform up to expectations in 2007 he all of a sudden becomes extremely hard to move. Personally, I would have cashed him in this winter when teams were spending wildly on pitching mediocrity.

If you don't have a ton of great pitching depth in the minors (which the Reds don't), don't have a surplus of position player talent in the majors to trade (which the Reds don't), and don't have a great free agent market to spend your money in (which the Reds didn't), then you've got to play the odds on moves like this. It's a risk that Arroyo won't live up to his 2006 performance and there's a chance that the Reds bid against themselves and bought high, but its a risk worth taking when weighed against the odds of getting equivalent or better return on prospects who are completely unproven at the ML level.

Plus, there's a very real PR aspect to these two moves (locking in Harang, locking in Arroyo) -- its a signal to the fans that the team is serious about competing in the near future and a signal to players that Cincinnati takes care of it's own. It sends a message, to both free agents and players in the Reds system, that Cincinnati is playing to win and will spend the money to reward players who contribute to building a winning club. No more stories about trades for guys like Scott Rolen being nixed because the finances didn't work. These are the kinds of moves that change attitudes about franchises; they're the kinds of moves that I expect out of St. Louis, as opposed to the previous regimes that played straight of the Pittsburgh Pirates playbook.

Don't underestimate that aspect of this move either.

westofyou
02-08-2007, 08:02 PM
While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds,

Drop off is probable, Arroyo rocked last year his Runs Saved Above Average is tied for 7th best in modern Reds history, if he drops to 1/2 that he'll have be where Harang was this year in RSAA.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
MODERN (1900-)

GAMES STARTED >= 25

RSAA YEAR RSAA GS
1 Dolf Luque 1923 66 37
2 Bucky Walters 1939 58 36
3 Noodles Hahn 1902 47 36
4 Dolf Luque 1925 45 36
5 Jose Rijo 1993 44 36
6 Bucky Walters 1940 42 36
T7 Ewell Blackwell 1950 41 32
T7 Bronson Arroyo 2006 41 35
T9 Bob Purkey 1962 37 37
T9 Ewell Blackwell 1947 37 33
T9 Noodles Hahn 1904 37 34

KronoRed
02-08-2007, 08:08 PM
His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

September callups maybe...

RFS62
02-08-2007, 08:09 PM
For me, these signings are the final nail in the coffin of that old Lindner mentality this board can't let go of. You know, the one that claims, "this cheap team is too cheap to compete because it's cheap."

Two words that abruptly stopped coming out of the front office once Castellini took over are "small" and "market." He stated last year that there was enough money to bump the payroll at the deadline if need be, which the previous regime would never have contemplated. And this offseason he's added, what, $15 million to the payroll? He was perfectly content to eat the contracts of people like Womack, White, Hammond, and Williams without so much as a comment, and then quietly spent millions on LaRue's going away card. No one from the front office opined that two $50,000 Rule 5 picks were "big investments," which certainly would have been the case a few years ago. Nearly every draft pick got signed without any fuss at all. And now we have a good, young core locked up for years to come.

If nothing else, these signings signal that Bob is a man of his word, and that the days of crying poor are gone. We can compete. Or, if we can't, the reason has nothing to do with money.


Killer post

:beerme:

Sabo Fan
02-08-2007, 08:12 PM
His 2 something ERA in September may disagree...

I'll agree that his September ERA was impressive, and while I don't know who he pitched against at the end of the season off the top of my head, you're much more likely to find teams who have brought guys up when rosters expanded or have just plain packed it in. Many a September stars have turned into fools gold the following year.


Plus, there's a very real PR aspect to these two moves (locking in Harang, locking in Arroyo) -- its a signal to the fans that the team is serious about competing in the near future and a signal to players that Cincinnati takes care of it's own. It sends a message, to both free agents and players in the Reds system, that Cincinnati is playing to win and will spend the money to reward players who contribute to building a winning club. No more stories about trades for guys like Scott Rolen being nixed because the finances didn't work. These are the kinds of moves that change attitudes about franchises; they're the kinds of moves that I expect out of St. Louis, as opposed to the previous regimes that played straight of the Pittsburgh Pirates playbook.

I don't dispute that this type of deal can change attitudes about a franchise, but the fastest way to do that is to simply win. This isn't a move that made the Reds better as a team. Arroyo was going to be here for two more years at reasonable numbers and he couldn't really do anything about that. To me, spending $25 million on a guy who at the end of the deal likely won't be much more than a #4 starter is a high price to merely change perceptions.

Matt700wlw
02-08-2007, 08:15 PM
I'll agree that his September ERA was impressive, and while I don't know who he pitched against at the end of the season off the top of my head, you're much more likely to find teams who have brought guys up when rosters expanded or have just plain packed it in. Many a September stars have turned into fools gold the following year.





I know the Cardinals, Astros, Giants, and Padres were part of it....those teams were in a playoff hunt...they weren't playing minor leaguers for the most part.

vaticanplum
02-08-2007, 08:18 PM
I don't dispute that this type of deal can change attitudes about a franchise, but the fastest way to do that is to simply win. This isn't a move that made the Reds better as a team. Arroyo was going to be here for two more years at reasonable numbers and he couldn't really do anything about that. To me, spending $25 million on a guy who at the end of the deal likely won't be much more than a #4 starter is a high price to merely change perceptions.

I think your point is that it did not make the Reds better as a team right now. But it certainly frees the front office up to focus their energy on other moves that will. And it gives them a longer window in which to do this. It did not directly make the team better, but it did indirectly, in opening the door. The only move that will make the Reds better RIGHT NOW is basically spending a lot of cash on a free agent or a trade. The free agent pool was weak and overpriced this year. Trades cannot be predicted and sometimes it takes time to hit on a good one.

I really don't see how anything wrong with this move whatsoever. Quite the opposite in fact. But I always thought Arroyo had a higher ceiling than he was showing in Pittsburgh and, at times, in Boston. I expect him to come down slightly from last year, but I'm much more in the camp that last year was more indicative of the pitcher he actually is than 2005.