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View Full Version : I hope Homer stays in AAA all year



fourrunhomer
02-09-2007, 10:17 AM
I know a lot of people want to see Homer with the big team this year. But, if He is stuck in AAA, that very well might mean that Both Harrang and Arroyo are having great years and at least two other starters are doing well. Wouldn't it be great not to need Homer this year.

RedsManRick
02-09-2007, 10:22 AM
Heh. That's one way of looking at it. But Homer's place in AAA has a lot more to do with Elizardo Ramirez, Matt Belisle, Bobby Livingston, etc. Even if the front 4 are solid, we'll need somebody capable in the 5th spot.

Joseph
02-09-2007, 10:28 AM
I think Wayne K has basically said when Homer's ready it's up to Homer and no one else. So if Homer stays in AAA all season it's most likely to be because he hasn't pitched well enough to come to the bigs.

reds1869
02-09-2007, 11:10 AM
AAA is not really the best place to develop pitching skills. I'd rather see him in the majors after a brief stint with the 'Bats.

Red Leader
02-09-2007, 11:39 AM
AAA is not really the best place to develop pitching skills. I'd rather see him in the majors after a brief stint with the 'Bats.

Agreed. I think the best case scenario plan in Wayne Krivsky's head right now is to start Homer in AAA, have him dominate the league for 5-10 starts and bring him up by the end of June and have him in the major league rotation for the whole second half.

The only thing that I'm concerned about is his workload. If he starts in AAA and they bring him up, they're going to have to carefully monitor his IP. If the Reds are in a pennant race in September and Bailey is needed, it'd suck to have to push him through September when his arm is already tiring. It'd be nice if they started him in AAA and held him to 5 IP or 80 pitches in those starts as to not take a toll on his arm too early in the year.

Kc61
02-09-2007, 12:37 PM
Let's see this kid "dominate" AAA before we put him in the Hall of Fame. He is still very young and has far fewer minor league innings than you usually want before major league promotion time.

I think, in time, he will dominate AAA. That time may could be April or May, but it could also be later on.

NC Reds
02-09-2007, 01:23 PM
Let his performance dictate how long he stays in AAA. I do not think he needs to "dominate AAA" to get called up though. His high ceiling should not be used to suppress him unnecessarily. When it is clear from his performance that he is one of the best starters in AAA, get him to Cincy.

Red Leader
02-09-2007, 01:25 PM
BTW, that whole "dominate AAA" thing I threw out there earlier was just me guessing at what Wayne Krivsky's "dream scenario" would be for Homer.

I also don't think he needs to dominate AAA to be called up.

bucksfan2
02-09-2007, 03:05 PM
i would want homer to get around 10 starts in the minors to face players who have been in the majors before. I want him up midway thorugh the season so he can pitch, learn how to pitch to major league hitters, and be more comfortable if the reds find themselves in a playoff race.

Matt700wlw
02-09-2007, 03:34 PM
If Homer's ready, he needs to be in the big leagues.

Period.

BRM
02-09-2007, 04:20 PM
If Homer's ready, he needs to be in the big leagues.

Period.

That's how I see it.

Caveat Emperor
02-09-2007, 05:17 PM
It'd be nice if they started him in AAA and held him to 5 IP or 80 pitches in those starts as to not take a toll on his arm too early in the year.

He should be on a 80-90 pitch count the entire year, no matter what level he is playing at or how well he is throwing.

Homer still is in the stretch of years where a young pitcher's career can really be scuttled by injuries -- even if he's dominating, he should be kept on a very short leash and be given the full compliment of rest days between starts.

With Harang and Arroyo locked through 2011, it becomes more important to keep their soon-to-be third trio member healthy and able to pitch for all those years.

dougdirt
02-09-2007, 05:28 PM
Bailey was on a 95 pitch pitch count last season, I doubt it goes down this year.

mbgrayson
02-09-2007, 09:24 PM
Another reason why Homer Bailey is likely to spend significant time in AAA Louisville this season has to do with when he will become eligible for arbitration, and free agency. The exert below is from the Baseball Prospectus primer on the arbitration procees (http://wwww.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3732):

"The original 1974 agreement called for players with two years of service time to be included in salary arbitration. The MLBPA traded back a year of eligibility for other gains in the 1985 CBA. Not happy with that giveback, the MLBPA fought for extended salary arbitration privileges in 1990 and negotiated what has become known as the "Super Two" category. Players with at least two years of service time, but less than three years, who also accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and were in the top 17% of all two-year players in service time, would also be eligible for salary arbitration. Essentially this means that players who almost have three years of service time in the bank are also eligible for salary arbitration.

There are 172 days in a championship season (service time is accumulated according to how many days a player is on the active roster, not according to games played), and from 1990-2003 the cutoff for Super Two players has been somewhere between two years, 128 days and two years, 153 days. In eight of those 14 years the cutoff was somewhere between 2.130 and 2.140. Careful management of young players so as to prevent them from being in a future Super Two class is an important tactic for front office personnel as that extra year of arbitration can make millions of dollars of difference to a payroll. "

Betterread
02-10-2007, 11:42 AM
The emphasis should be on Homer's development - not where he pitches. If he meets the objectives the Reds set for him, he should move to the next level. I fully expect his development to continue even if he goes to the majors - i.e. it is predictable he will face some struggles at the major league level. On the other hand - he may struggle in AAA and be sent to Chatta. to work on his development there - it often happens with young pitchers.

Jerry Narron
02-10-2007, 09:42 PM
If it were my way Homer would start the season with us but Wayne would like him to stay in AAA for a few starts.

camisadelgolf
02-10-2007, 10:02 PM
Thanks for the input, Jerry. How's Hamilton looking so far?

RFS62
02-12-2007, 01:49 PM
Homer will be promoted to the bigs when he shows he can command his offspeed stuff and hit his spots with his fastball.

It's not a matter of stuff as much as it's a matter of commanding it.

Redlegs
02-14-2007, 03:07 PM
Tracey Jones seems to think he's ready now. Scouts seem to think he's ready now. Bring him up. If Tracey says he's ready, he'd ready.:thumbup:

LincolnparkRed
02-14-2007, 03:38 PM
How do people feel about putting him in the bullpen like Liriano last year? I wonder if all that warming up in the pen might have helped cause his are trouble late last year?

bucksfan2
02-14-2007, 04:45 PM
How do people feel about putting him in the bullpen like Liriano last year? I wonder if all that warming up in the pen might have helped cause his are trouble late last year?

I thought that Liriano's arm problems were caused from him throwing too many breaking pitches not his time spent in the pen.

paintmered
02-14-2007, 04:54 PM
Tracey Jones seems to think he's ready now. Scouts seem to think he's ready now. Bring him up. If Tracey says he's ready, he'd ready.:thumbup:

Well Tracy played the game, so he obviously must know.

Bigredfan#1
02-14-2007, 06:16 PM
That's how I see it.

That is how it will be!

Bigredfan#1
02-14-2007, 06:18 PM
How do people feel about putting him in the bullpen like Liriano last year? I wonder if all that warming up in the pen might have helped cause his are trouble late last year?

Liriano has a history of arm problems, that is one of the reaasons the Giants were willing to trade him to the Twins in the Nathan trade. I doubt if it had much to do with his problems, from what I read he'll probably have problems for the rest of his career. Maybe the surgery will fix him though, who knows!!!