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View Full Version : Top 40 prospects as of 2004



thatcoolguy_22
02-10-2007, 09:14 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41417


I just found this little gem and thought it deserved some more discussion in regards to the recent spat of trade arroyo/harang for prospects. I must say for the timeframe he had a couple of "misses" but overall I like the list.

Out of our top 40 I only see a handful that are playing either for our club or any other major league team for that matter. I just find it hard to trade away a franchise for a couple million dollars worth of lottery tickets. It sounds like a sure thing except there are 10 million plus winning combos. We had a lot of discussion before but if I was the yankees I would jump all over an Arroyo or Harang for Hughes straight up deal or, being a reds fan, I would take a D. Willis for homer deal straight up. Major league skillsets are just that. Someone might have the basics of it but, until they decide to put everything together they do not make the big club.

Lets open up a new debate :)

dougdirt
02-10-2007, 10:27 AM
I think more of that has to do with who was running the system at the time. You have to remember what the scouting department was like in the late 90s and early 2000s. Sure, they hit on Kearns and Dunn in 1998, but little else. With that said, there is no way I trade Homer Bailey for Dontrelle Willis. He is about to get very expensive, is seeing a decline in his numbers. His walk rate skyrocketed, hit rate went up and his strikeouts are in the mid 6's per 9 innings pitched. I will pass on that. Also, as the Yankees, I wouldnt trade Hughes for Arroyo, and would really have to think about it for Harang. Hughes, while being just a prospect is a very solid guy built on more than just hype. You have to remember, the two guys you are talking about wont even be 21 until May of next season. They arent finished products yet, and shouldnt be thought of as such.

thatcoolguy_22
02-10-2007, 10:56 AM
I think more of that has to do with who was running the system at the time. You have to remember what the scouting department was like in the late 90s and early 2000s. Sure, they hit on Kearns and Dunn in 1998, but little else. With that said, there is no way I trade Homer Bailey for Dontrelle Willis. He is about to get very expensive, is seeing a decline in his numbers. His walk rate skyrocketed, hit rate went up and his strikeouts are in the mid 6's per 9 innings pitched. I will pass on that. Also, as the Yankees, I wouldnt trade Hughes for Arroyo, and would really have to think about it for Harang. Hughes, while being just a prospect is a very solid guy built on more than just hype. You have to remember, the two guys you are talking about wont even be 21 until May of next season. They arent finished products yet, and shouldnt be thought of as such.


true but a bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush or something like that. I know what your saying. I've been reading articles all day in archives of people clamoring for ty howington, corky miller, Oakland prospects Jason Arnold and John Ford-Griffin, Erubial Durazo, Brandon Larson, D'Angelo Jimenez and the list runs on for days. Some of the things that were said back in 2002 were enough to make me laugh out loud. I don't know but, I've seen a lot of "can't miss" prospects in my lifetime fall flat on their face from everything from arm problems to drugs to just partying too much. A lot of things happen to the guys that would have been great.

However I can understand what you're saying about homer for D Willis. Maybe Willis was a poor example but for a number 1.b+ type pitcher for bailey is a trade that you would see me make on a regular basis.

dougdirt
02-10-2007, 11:21 AM
Sure, but I have also seen guys like Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Scott Kazmir come up and do just fine and be quite valuable. Sure Liriano was injured last year, but that can happen to anyone. In a market that the Reds specifically are in, they arent able to trade Top 10 prospect talent for proven major league talent, because that talent they just traded for is going to cost them 10 million+ in 2 years.

thatcoolguy_22
02-10-2007, 11:44 AM
very true very true