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OnBaseMachine
02-11-2007, 10:18 AM
I will be extremely upset if Denorfia doesn't make the team. Chad Moeller sucks, plain and simple. There is no need for him on the roster.

Projected 25-man roster
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

Here's our best guess at the 25-man roster coming north. Last year, we were 20-for-25. The Bronson Arroyo-for-Wily Mo Peņa trade cost us two spots:

Lineup

Ryan Freel, CF: He'll be leading off. Still too early to be certain whether he'll be in center field or right.

Brandon Phillips, 2B: If Phillips can build on last year, he's a budding star.


Ken Griffey Jr., RF: The Reds need him to be the 2005 Griffey, not the 2006 Griffey.

Adam Dunn, LF: Hopefully for the Reds, not trying to make the switch to first base will help Dunn's offense.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B: His bat is good enough - .276, 15 HRs, 72 RBI in 117 games last season - but he needs to cut his errors by a third or more. Twenty-five is too many.

Scott Hatteberg, 1B: He had a good year, despite a disastrous September (.206, no HRs, four RBI).

Alex Gonzalez, SS: The Reds are hoping for an average in the .260 range and 60, 70 RBI. His defense is what they're paying for.

David Ross, C: He tailed off after the All-Star Break, but 21 HRs and 52 RBI in 247 at-bats isn't bad.

Bench

Juan Castro, INF: If they gave a Gold Glove to a utility player, he'd deserve it.

Jeff Conine, 1B/OF: How effective he is as the right-handed-hitting first baseman will be a key to the club's success.

Josh Hamilton, OF: The Reds seem set on carrying him on the roster. He's athletic enough to play defense in the big leagues now. But his bat is rusty and unproven.

Chad Moeller, C: GM Wayne Krivsky seems to like the three-catcher setup. If the club goes with two catchers, Chris Denorfia or Norris Hopper would make the team in the outfield.

Javier Valentin, C: He hit .286 vs. right-handers and tied for the NL lead with five pinch-hit home runs.

Rotation

Aaron Harang: If he can take the next step, you can call him an ace. Last year's numbers - 16-11, 3.78 ERA, a league-leading 215 strikeouts - aren't too bad.

Bronson Arroyo: Throw out his awful July and he was 14-8 with a 2.95 ERA. Even with the bad month, he was the Reds' best starter.

Eric Milton: This is the Reds' last chance for big returns on their $25 million investment.

Kyle Lohse: When he's on, he's very good. Trouble is, he's been off as much as on the last couple of years.

Kirk Saarloos: He was 10-9 two years ago. The Reds would take that in the fifth spot.

Bullpen

Matt Belisle: We're assuming Saarloos is the fifth starter. Belisle had a good year and was good in Winter Ball. Question is whether his back is OK for the long haul.

Bill Bray: Thing to remember is he's only 23.

Todd Coffey: He could end up getting another shot at closing. Throw out one awful appearance and his ERA was 3.12 last season.

Rheal Cormier: His ERA was nearly three runs higher after the trade from Philly.

Gary Majewski: The Reds are hoping rest was all his shoulder needed.

Mike Stanton: Turns 40 on June 2, but he was good as the closer late last season for San Francisco.

David Weathers: Had a 1.64 ERA in 29 appearances in the second half last season.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070211/SPT04/702110452/1071/SPT

Patrick Bateman
02-11-2007, 10:32 AM
Denorfia should be in the line-up everyday. Not including him on the 25 man roster is insane. I can only assume that Krivsky knows this too, otherwise I am going to lose a lot of faith in the Krivsky.

We also have to remember that Fay is a moron, and his best guess means very little.

FlyingPig
02-11-2007, 10:45 AM
I'd love to see Denorfia on there so that Freel can play where ever they need him, including the infield. I agree with you on the catcher situation..Keep Ross and Valentin and give Moeller's spot to Denorfia...

Redhook
02-11-2007, 10:49 AM
I'm pretty much neutral with Fay, but he definitely dropped down a notch in my book. Choosing Moeller over Denorfia is insane. Denorfia should and better be starting in CF.

And Fay's lineup makes me wanna puke. It has to be Dunn, EE, JR no matter what. I don't care if Dunn bats 2nd or 3rd, but EE and JR need to follow him, in that order. Unfortunately, I believe Narron thinks like Fay. Not good.

Chip R
02-11-2007, 11:08 AM
I saw this earlier this morning and they forgot to put anyone in the bullpen besides Belisle. :lol:

Shaggy Sanchez
02-11-2007, 11:22 AM
I know that Fay isn't the best but what evidence do we have that Narron and Krivsky don't like having 3 catchers. I don't think that Narron or Krivsky are as high on Deno as most on this board are. I have to think that if it came down to Hamilton or Deno the spot would go to Hamilton because he is Narron's boy and they would risk losing him. I also think that this team will have 3 catchers, Krivsky wants better defense and you have to think that is why he brought in Moeller. I really won't be surprised in the least if Deno isn't on the 25 man at the start of the season.

Tom Servo
02-11-2007, 11:23 AM
I think it goes without saying that if Moeller makes the team and Deno doesn't we have major problems.

I'm still hoping we don't have to see Rheal on the opening day roster as he seems like the perfect guy to dump off on a team desperate for a lefty. There's also the fact that he and Narron supposedly didn't see eye to eye last year.

Joseph
02-11-2007, 11:39 AM
I've got the last slot being between Moeller and Hamilton and Bellhorn. Deno makes it in my mind.

reds44
02-11-2007, 12:54 PM
Here is the interesting thing about our bullpen. I actually really like Belisle, Coffey, and Bray. All are young and have electric arms. Then Majewski is a solid guy assuming his shoulder is healthy. There is 4 guys I like right though.

Weathers and Stanton are old, but they were pretty good last year. Hopefully they don't die in the next year or so and I think them.

If Cormier struggles in April he should meet the same fate as Rick White and Chris Hammond.

Overall, if things go right in the bullpen I think it could be decent. That is alot better then it was at the start of last year.

If Denorfia isn't on the 25 man roster, then something is seriously wrong with Wayne. I think he'll be on it though.

KronoRed
02-11-2007, 01:53 PM
Short of going 0-100 in ST Deno should make the roster, I know he's the opposite of the rest of the bench, under 30..but he's good ;)

Chip R
02-11-2007, 02:01 PM
Conventional wisdom says that Freel can't play every day. Now, I don't happen to believe that but I'm guessing the Reds do. If they move Jr. to RF and Freel is hurt or going to sit down, who are they going to play in CF and lead off? The logical answer is Deno unless they want to screw around with Bubba Crosby. I doubt they trust Hamilton to start unless it's a once in a blue moon thing.

dfs
02-11-2007, 02:48 PM
I'm pretty much neutral with Fay, but he definitely dropped down a notch in my book. Choosing Moeller over Denorfia is insane. Denorfia should and better be starting in CF.
Just FWIW that's Fay's projection of what the REDS will do.
I think he's probably pretty close.
There will be injuries that will change the looks of things, but I think his projection is probably pretty close.
If there are no injuries, I think it may be likely that Dumatrait or Ramerez get Bray's spot and he starts the year in louisville, but that's the only realy part of the projection I think he's missed.

It's not what I would do and I hope I'm wrong my views of what the reds are thinking. I hope Dino is the starting centerfielder for most of April and May, but it won't shock me at all if he doesn't come north.

Candy Cummings
02-11-2007, 03:07 PM
We've got it narrowed down right. If you want Deno on the roster, Moeller has to go.

DFS is right--Fay didn't CHOOSE Moeller, he thinks they will. In today's world of large pitching staffs, I think you have to wonder about three roster spots on catchers.

Ron Madden
02-11-2007, 06:03 PM
I've got the last slot being between Moeller and Hamilton and Bellhorn. Deno makes it in my mind.

That's the way I see it too.

I hope and pray Deno makes it and gets consistent playing time. :pray:

Marc D
02-12-2007, 12:03 PM
I just don't see how you can carry 3 catchers when you are already effectively down a roster spot with Hamilton. The only thing I can see is the FO counting on Deno to come up and get his time when JR goes on the DL.

Boil it down to essentials and its one more example of WK's finger crossing plan(to steal a phrase from M2). If Hamilton turns into a gem then it works. I guess one man's lottery ticket is anothers investment portfolio.

luvdozer
02-12-2007, 02:51 PM
I want to see Denorfia on the 25 man roster as well, but only if he is given a real shot at regular playing time.

I am wondering if everyone who is saying that it would be crazy to carry Moeller instead of Denorfia are making an assumption that if they did carry Denorfia, that he would be playing at least 4 perhaps 5 times per week. What if the decision has already been made that Jr will not move to RF and Denorfia be given CF? In that case, the choice is Denorfia getting 3 ABs a week or sending him down to AAA so he can play every day until (1) there is one significant injury among Jr, Dunn, Freel, Hatteberg and Conine, or (2) Hamilton has a relapse and they send him and 25K back to the DRays.

I really really really wish they would move Jr. to RF and tell Denorfia that he has CF no matter what he hits - just relax and get used to the big leagues kid. However, if they arent willing to do that, does it really make sense for him to sit on the bench and carry juan castro's bags from the baggage claim?

Danny Serafini
02-12-2007, 03:57 PM
Denorfia's past the point of getting anything worthwhile out of AAA. There's nothing wrong with him serving as the 4th OF right now.

reds44
02-12-2007, 04:01 PM
Denorfia's past the point of getting anything worthwhile out of AAA. There's nothing wrong with him serving as the 4th OF right now.
Well if he can't hit there is.

BRM
02-12-2007, 04:03 PM
Well if he can't hit there is.

He won't hit any worse than Crosby or Hamilton and he's probably the best defensive outfielder on the roster. He should be on the 25 man.

reds44
02-12-2007, 04:41 PM
He won't hit any worse than Crosby or Hamilton and he's probably the best defensive outfielder on the roster. He should be on the 25 man.
Hey, I didn't say he couldn't hit. I just said if he can't hit he shouldn't belong on the roster. I just find it funny that some people didn't/don't want Castro on the roster for his defense, but do want Denorfia. There is a reason he is a 27 year old prospect.

BRM
02-12-2007, 04:47 PM
Hey, I didn't say he couldn't hit. I just said if he can't hit he shouldn't belong on the roster. I just find it funny that some people didn't/don't want Castro on the roster for his defense, but do want Denorfia. There is a reason he is a 27 year old prospect.

That's because they expect Deno to hit much better than Castro. Deno isn't typically viewed as a defense only type player.

Kc61
02-12-2007, 05:01 PM
Here is the interesting thing about our bullpen. I actually really like Belisle, Coffey, and Bray. All are young and have electric arms. Then Majewski is a solid guy assuming his shoulder is healthy. There is 4 guys I like right though.

Weathers and Stanton are old, but they were pretty good last year. Hopefully they don't die in the next year or so and I think them.

If Cormier struggles in April he should meet the same fate as Rick White and Chris Hammond.

Overall, if things go right in the bullpen I think it could be decent. That is alot better then it was at the start of last year.

If Denorfia isn't on the 25 man roster, then something is seriously wrong with Wayne. I think he'll be on it though.

I like Deno to split center field with Freel. Yet, somehow I'm not sure the Reds feel the same way. For whatever reason, I just am not sure the FO sees him as a major league outfielder. This spring will tell -- a good sign they didn't trade him for some A ball pitcher. But Redszone may like Chris more than WK does -- time will tell.

If Matt Belisle has an electric arm (as you say), I hope someone turns on the switch in 2007. I hope he is healthy and has a great year, but I don't think he's ever shown that he is the prospect the Braves had before his back injury. He's one of those Redszone favorites. I think his health is likely the major issue.

My expectations for Bray and Coffey are higher -- I think they are, in many respects, the keys to this staff. Everyone needs solid innings eaters in the pen, guys who can pitch 2 innings in a close or winning game. If they don't come through it is hard to see how the Reds cover innings 6 through 9 in most games.

As for Cormier, I understand why Wayne gave him the one-year extension to lure him to the Reds when they were desperate for relievers last year. But as the third lefty in the pen, it's hard to see what role he plays. He's not a loogy; he doesn't usually pitch multiple innings at this point. I guess if he has a good year his role will become apparent, he just doesn't seem like a fit in this pen.

Salmon and Guardado are also important names. Salmon because he is likely the first in line if someone doesn't work out. Guardado because, if he gets healthy, he makes a huge difference.

Patrick Bateman
02-12-2007, 05:12 PM
Hey, I didn't say he couldn't hit. I just said if he can't hit he shouldn't belong on the roster. I just find it funny that some people didn't/don't want Castro on the roster for his defense, but do want Denorfia. There is a reason he is a 27 year old prospect.

That's because Castro does not offer good defense. If he actually was a superb defensive replacement, I'm guessing people would like having him on the roster.

reds44
02-12-2007, 05:31 PM
That's because Castro does not offer good defense. If he actually was a superb defensive replacement, I'm guessing people would like having him on the roster.
I disagree. Royce Clayton was an vastly overrated defender who was probably below average, but Castro is a good defender. He's not at Seabass' level, but he is still good. A little off topic, but doesn't it seem like he has a knack (sp?) for coming up with big hits? He has decent range, fast hands, and if he gets to the ball it's an out. Do any of us know really how good a defender Denorfia is anyway?


I like Deno to split center field with Freel. Yet, somehow I'm not sure the Reds feel the same way. For whatever reason, I just am not sure the FO sees him as a major league outfielder. This spring will tell -- a good sign they didn't trade him for some A ball pitcher. But Redszone may like Chris more than WK does -- time will tell.

If Matt Belisle has an electric arm (as you say), I hope someone turns on the switch in 2007. I hope he is healthy and has a great year, but I don't think he's ever shown that he is the prospect the Braves had before his back injury. He's one of those Redszone favorites. I think his health is likely the major issue.

My expectations for Bray and Coffey are higher -- I think they are, in many respects, the keys to this staff. Everyone needs solid innings eaters in the pen, guys who can pitch 2 innings in a close or winning game. If they don't come through it is hard to see how the Reds cover innings 6 through 9 in most games.

As for Cormier, I understand why Wayne gave him the one-year extension to lure him to the Reds when they were desperate for relievers last year. But as the third lefty in the pen, it's hard to see what role he plays. He's not a loogy; he doesn't usually pitch multiple innings at this point. I guess if he has a good year his role will become apparent, he just doesn't seem like a fit in this pen.

Salmon and Guardado are also important names. Salmon because he is likely the first in line if someone doesn't work out. Guardado because, if he gets healthy, he makes a huge difference.
The back is most definatley an issue with Belisle, and I agree with most everything you said.

Patrick Bateman
02-12-2007, 05:50 PM
I disagree. Royce Clayton was an vastly overrated defender who was probably below average, but Castro is a good defender.

I disagree. Castro has pretty awful range IMO. At one point he was pretty good, but at this point, he is very slow and simply doesn't have the range to play SS at any kind of decent rate. I forget who posted it, but they showed some stats that showed that he was nearly as bad a fielder as Lopez was last season when you factor in range. Case in point: he can field the balls he gets to very well, but he gets to very few balls.


A little off topic, but doesn't it seem like he has a knack (sp?) for coming up with big hits?

Here's Castro's career clutch stats:


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
2 outs, RISP 232 269 248 57 11 2 8 71 21 6 47 0 0 0 4 0 .230 .290 .387 .677
Late & Close 300 383 347 68 9 2 4 28 16 0 76 0 18 2 7 5 .196 .230 .268 .498
Tie Game 337 513 473 105 26 1 4 34 25 2 85 0 13 2 9 15 .222 .260 .307 .567
Within 1 R 533 1063 970 215 48 3 17 86 56 4 178 0 32 5 16 31 .222 .263 .330 .593
Within 2 R 604 1441 1323 300 64 5 19 106 74 6 219 0 38 6 19 46 .227 .267 .326 .593
Within 3 R 651 1705 1565 347 72 7 22 128 89 7 262 0 43 8 19 54 .222 .262 .319 .581
Within 4 R 674 1908 1755 392 80 8 23 138 100 7 299 0 43 10 20 55 .223 .264 .317 .581
Margin > 4 R 237 390 367 102 23 5 10 52 19 0 72 0 0 4 3 11 .278 .310 .450 .760


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
RISP 407 550 480 120 25 5 11 156 35 7 94 0 21 14 11 22 .250 .293 .392 .685
--- 653 1318 1249 271 61 5 16 16 69 0 216 0 0 0 10 0 .217 .258 .312 .570
1-- 329 430 393 103 17 3 6 18 15 0 61 0 22 0 2 44 .262 .289 .366 .655
-2- 182 198 169 48 8 1 2 34 18 3 18 0 11 0 5 1 .284 .353 .379 .732
--3 68 71 60 16 2 1 4 28 5 2 18 0 2 4 0 1 .267 .304 .533 .837
12- 125 139 128 33 9 2 1 29 4 0 23 0 7 0 3 14 .258 .280 .383 .663
1-3 52 54 47 9 0 0 4 25 2 0 9 0 1 4 2 3 .191 .208 .447 .655
-23 39 40 34 7 3 1 0 18 5 2 15 0 0 1 0 0 .206 .300 .353 .653
123 46 48 42 7 3 0 0 22 1 0 11 0 0 5 1 3 .167 .167 .238 .405

He seems to be slightly better with guys on base, but let's face, he's a putrid hitter in any situation. Just slightly less god awful in others.


Do any of us know really how good a defender Denorfia is anyway?

He was voted as being the best fielding outfielder in AAA last season. Plus just from my view, I thought he showed a ton of range last season. When he was playing in RF, you could tell that his abilities were being misused. He was getting to balls that the CFer probably should have been getting, but Denorfia was way faster. That's just my opinion though.

membengal
02-12-2007, 05:56 PM
The possibility that the Reds might keep three catchers again (and that the third be Moeller) at the expense of, say Denorfia, erodes severly into the good will that the Harang and Arroyo signings engendered.