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View Full Version : K Rosenthal on the possibility of Griffey to RF



klw
02-15-2007, 04:56 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6474216

Always Red
02-15-2007, 05:07 PM
I love the Josh Hamilton story, wish the best for him, and hope he keeps his life together.

I also wish Chris Denorfia would get the same shot that Josh Hamilton is getting.

His defense in CF would give the Reds outstanding defense up the middle. And he can hit, too.

Dunner44
02-15-2007, 05:08 PM
I forgot about Bruce and Stubbs in all this spring training mess... no way are they going to be ready this year (or even next) but they're exciting for the future. I hope Denorfia kills the ball this spring. Or Norris Hopper keeps doing his thing. Because Griffey in RF is a better Griffey.

Red Leader
02-15-2007, 05:09 PM
It's best for the team if Griffey moves to right.

If the Reds acquired a legitimate center fielder, the discussion would be over.



Well, I don't expect the media to recognize that Chris Denorfia is the best option on the team right now for everyday CF duties. He might even be a better option for this team than many players that they could acquire in a trade. Sadly, I don't expect the Reds to recognize this, either.

Joseph
02-15-2007, 05:13 PM
I think the media strictly looks at Denorfia and says 'He's 26, thats too old for a guy to become a regular on an MLB team.' so he becomes an also ran in this story. They don't look at it like the last two seasons he may have been ready but was 'blocked' by Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns and the team preferred him everyday in AAA than 2 times a week in the bigs.

I agree, he should most likely be our opening day CFer.

TOBTTReds
02-15-2007, 05:13 PM
"A lot of it is about having a regular guy to take the spot and not having Griff moving back and forth. He's open to it. But right now, unless he comes to spring training and says, 'I'm going to play right field,' he's probably going to open the spring in center."



Uhh, this paragraph makes my head hurt.

RedsManRick
02-15-2007, 05:23 PM
Brady Clark got us Shawn Estes. At this point, my best hopes for Deno is that the organization will trade him before the dying bloom is completely off the rose. I have zero faith that he will get a legitimate shot at the full time gig.

I just don't understand why they can't see that everything Junior wants in place (a clearly superior option) was already on the 25 man.

pedro
02-15-2007, 05:26 PM
Well, I don't expect the media to recognize that Chris Denorfia is the best option on the team right now for everyday CF duties. He might even be a better option for this team than many players that they could acquire in a trade. Sadly, I don't expect the Reds to recognize this, either.


I hope they do.

redsmetz
02-15-2007, 05:38 PM
I think the media strictly looks at Denorfia and says 'He's 26, thats too old for a guy to become a regular on an MLB team.' so he becomes an also ran in this story. They don't look at it like the last two seasons he may have been ready but was 'blocked' by Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns and the team preferred him everyday in AAA than 2 times a week in the bigs.

I agree, he should most likely be our opening day CFer.

Twenty-six is the same age Ryan Freel was when we picked him up as a minor league free agent. It wouldn't shock me to see either him or Freel traded.

reds44
02-15-2007, 05:44 PM
Well, I don't expect the media to recognize that Chris Denorfia is the best option on the team right now for everyday CF duties. He might even be a better option for this team than many players that they could acquire in a trade. Sadly, I don't expect the Reds to recognize this, either.
He may be the best in house option at the moment, but he's a AAAA player.

Strikes Out Looking
02-15-2007, 05:45 PM
Shoddy reporting from the national press, who would believe that. Clearly, a combination of Ryan Freel and Deno are legitimate CF's and would not require Jr. to play CF at all. Combined they are better defensively than any other CF in the division. And that includes the Cubs centerfielder and the hot dog in St. Louis (he who must not be named).

Furthermore, I can't even see Bubba Crosby making the team as anything more than the 25th guy in the even Hamilton needs to go back to TB or the minors.

If Narron is the truly the manager, he must decide this on day one and let Jr. learn the nuances of right field. This is frustrating, because moves like this could make the difference between pretender and contender.

KronoRed
02-15-2007, 05:47 PM
He may be the best in house option at the moment, but he's a AAAA player.

No, he's not.

Cyclone792
02-15-2007, 05:48 PM
He may be the best in house option at the moment, but he's a AAAA player.

He's a AAAA player according to what?

reds44
02-15-2007, 05:51 PM
He's a AAAA player according to what?
His career? Who looks at a near 27 year old player who hasn't been able to stick in the majors and goes wow, there is a good player?

And don't bring up Ryan Freel. If Denorfia suddenly learns how to play the infield also, then bring up Freel.

Johnny Footstool
02-15-2007, 05:52 PM
He may be the best in house option at the moment, but he's a AAAA player.

Based on what? His whopping 140 major league ABs?

He has proven that he can hit at every level of the minor leagues. He deserves more than 140 ABs before he gets written off as a AAA player.

What about his defense? Didn't scouts consider him one of the best defensive CFs in the minors?

reds44
02-15-2007, 05:54 PM
Based on what? His whopping 140 major league ABs?

What about his defense? Didn't scouts consider him one of the best defensive CFs in the minors?
I love the double standard. We all love Chris Denorfia because of what we hear about his defense, but *gasp* if you sign Seabass to play SS it's a terrible move.

Cyclone792
02-15-2007, 05:56 PM
His career? Who looks at a near 27 year old player who hasn't been able to stick in the majors and goes wow, there is a good player?

And don't bring up Ryan Freel. If Denorfia suddenly learns how to play the infield also, then bring up Freel.

Who look at Denorfia and thinks he'd be a solid center fielder? I do.


Chris Denorfia
Career Minor League Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .295 .375 .447 .822 .080 .152 9.08


2006 Denorfia Louisville Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Regular .349 .409 .484 .893 .060 .135 10.38
Park Adj. .355 .418 .490 .908 .063 .135 9.81
MLE .313 .366 .429 .795 .053 .116 12.32


Career MLB Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .278 .356 .382 .740 .078 .104 9.65
2006 NL CF Avg. .263 .333 .412 .745 .070 .149 11.92*

*Approximated as I did not have HBP, SF and SH figures

The most important line to look at first in the above chart is what the average National League center fielder produced in 2006, which was a .263/.333/.412 line, good for a .745 OPS. If Chris Denorfia can put up an OPS in the .750 range, then he would be putting up offensive numbers good enough to be an average offensive center fielder in the big leagues.

Do I think Chris Denorfia can accomplish just that? Very much so.

Everything about his minor league history and even his short big league history of 164 career plate appearances suggests to me that Chris Denorfia can OPS in the .750 range. The main reason is his walk rate, which has always been solid in the minor leagues and has continued to show signs of life so far in the major leagues. If Denorfia maintains his walk rates, or even if they decline a bit which should be expected, then he could post 55-65 walks over a full major league season. Even if he only bats .280 instead of over .300 as his MLE's suggest, that still means Denorfia could post an on-base percentage in the .350 range, which would be above average for a center fielder. He won't display as much power as an average center fielder, but he'll make up for that with above average on-base skills.

Put the total offensive package together, and I think he's got the makings to produce similar numbers to what the average center fielder can produce.

Defensively, there's nothing at all not to like about Denorfia, who was also voted in a BA poll as having the best tools for defensive outfielder in all of AAA in 2006.

His range is superb, he gets excellent jumps on balls, he takes excellent routes to balls, and his arm also rates as above average. His top speed and closing speed on fly balls is simply remarkable, and he's truly the best defensive outfielder I've seen in a Reds uniform since Mike Cameron in 1999. In terms of defensive run value, I think it's very easily possible that Denorfia could save 10-15 runs per 150 games over the average big league defensive center fielder. That's about a 30 run swing in the positive direction from what we're getting out of Griffey defensively in center field (~ -20 runs above average).

Wrap all the above up into one player - average offense for center field plus excellent defense - and that's an overall above average player. Add in that he's still 26-years-old and will continue to make around the league minimum both in 2007 and 2008, and that means the Reds most definitely have a valuable asset in Denorfia.

Personally, I'd make him the starting center fielder starting immediately in 2007 and wouldn't think twice.

reds44
02-15-2007, 06:00 PM
Who look at Denorfia and thinks he'd be a solid center fielder? I do.


Chris Denorfia
Career Minor League Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .295 .375 .447 .822 .080 .152 9.08


2006 Denorfia Louisville Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Regular .349 .409 .484 .893 .060 .135 10.38
Park Adj. .355 .418 .490 .908 .063 .135 9.81
MLE .313 .366 .429 .795 .053 .116 12.32


Career MLB Statistics

AVG OBP SLG OPS IsoD IsoP PA/BB
Denorfia .278 .356 .382 .740 .078 .104 9.65
2006 NL CF Avg. .263 .333 .412 .745 .070 .149 11.92*

*Approximated as I did not have HBP, SF and SH figures

The most important line to look at first in the above chart is what the average National League center fielder produced in 2006, which was a .263/.333/.412 line, good for a .745 OPS. If Chris Denorfia can put up an OPS in the .750 range, then he would be putting up offensive numbers good enough to be an average offensive center fielder in the big leagues.

Do I think Chris Denorfia can accomplish just that? Very much so.

Everything about his minor league history and even his short big league history of 164 career plate appearances suggests to me that Chris Denorfia can OPS in the .750 range. The main reason is his walk rate, which has always been solid in the minor leagues and has continued to show signs of life so far in the major leagues. If Denorfia maintains his walk rates, or even if they decline a bit which should be expected, then he could post 55-65 walks over a full major league season. Even if he only bats .280 instead of over .300 as his MLE's suggest, that still means Denorfia could post an on-base percentage in the .350 range, which would be above average for a center fielder. He won't display as much power as an average center fielder, but he'll make up for that with above average on-base skills.

Put the total offensive package together, and I think he's got the makings to produce similar numbers to what the average center fielder can produce.

Defensively, there's nothing at all not to like about Denorfia, who was also voted in a BA poll as having the best tools for defensive outfielder in all of AAA in 2006.

His range is superb, he gets excellent jumps on balls, he takes excellent routes to balls, and his arm also rates as above average. His top speed and closing speed on fly balls is simply remarkable, and he's truly the best defensive outfielder I've seen in a Reds uniform since Mike Cameron in 1999. In terms of defensive run value, I think it's very easily possible that Denorfia could save 10-15 runs per 150 games over the average big league defensive center fielder. That's about a 30 run swing in the positive direction from what we're getting out of Griffey defensively in center field (~ -20 runs above average).

Wrap all the above up into one player - average offense for center field plus excellent defense - and that's an overall above average player. Add in that he's still 26-years-old and will continue to make around the league minimum both in 2007 and 2008, and that means the Reds most definitely have a valuable asset in Denorfia.

Personally, I'd make him the starting center fielder starting immediately in 2007 and wouldn't think twice.

Just don't let facts get in the way of analysis, reds44.
Why is he 26 and soon to be 27 and never been able to stick in the majors then? There are other players that hit AAA well and can't hit in the majors. I think I have gone on record numerous times as saying moving Griffey to right and having the Deno/Freel combinitation in CF is the best in house move for the team. However, that doesn't mean that the Denorfia is going to be a good player. Freel and him are going to have to play somewhere as the team currently stands right now, and if they are it might as well be in CF where you can take advantage of his skills.

I know it's an unpopular stance on this board, but I don't think he is the player everyone makes him out to be,

Handofdeath
02-15-2007, 06:03 PM
Freel cannot be the everyday CF for the same reason Griffey shouldn't. Neither one has the ability to stay healthy for a full season. This is where the extra relievers the Reds have should start being used. Package Freel and Coffey and see what that gets you. I would think that combo should bring in a pretty good CF.

KronoRed
02-15-2007, 06:05 PM
This team has way too many pitching holes to be trading people off for a CF when we already have one, at some point you have to accept that you won't have an allstar at every spot on the field, even after only 164 PA's Deno's OBP is good enough to be a starter.

Red Leader
02-15-2007, 06:08 PM
Why is he 26 and soon to be 27 and never been able to stick in the majors then? There are other players that hit AAA well and can't hit in the majors. I think I have gone on record numerous times as saying moving Griffey to right and having the Deno/Freel combinitation in CF is the best in house move for the team. However, that doesn't mean that the Denorfia is going to be a good player. Freel and him are going to have to play somewhere as the team currently stands right now, and if they are it might as well be in CF where you can take advantage of his skills.

I know it's an unpopular stance on this board, but I don't think he is the player everyone makes him out to be,

Last year was the first year that the Reds didn't enter the season with a 4-headed OF jam in about 4-5 years. I wonder why he never got his chances behind Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Pena, Encarnacion, Guillen, and sometimes Freel. OF has not been a very easy position for a prospect to break into in a Reds uniform the last couple years. Having said that, Chris Denorfia has done everything you'd want a minor league player to do over the last 3 years and should be rewarded, or at least given a fair shot to earn an everyday job this year.

Cyclone792
02-15-2007, 06:09 PM
Why is he 26 and soon to be 27 and never been able to stick in the majors then? I think I have gone on record numerous times as saying moving Griffey to right and having the Deno/Freel combinitation in CF is the best in house move for the team. However, that doesn't mean that the Denorfia is going to be a good player. Freel and him are going to have to play somewhere as the team currently stands right now, and if they are it might as well be in CF where you can take advantage of his skills.

I know it's an unpopular stance on this board, but I have a hard time believing that the entire organization under 2 different GM's and owners has whiffed on him this long.

Since when has Denorfia ever had a chance to stick in the majors? His chance has been nothing more than a few starts in a row, then a seat on the bench or a ticket back to Louisville after his first 0-fer. IIRC, you made fun of Narron up and down this board all season last year due to him sitting Encarnacion for nonsense reasons (and yes, I agreed with you). The treatment of Denorfia by this organization has been 10 times worse with regard to giving him even a chance.

A guy like Denorfia is a guy that a team like the Cincinnati Reds really should give a great look at. Any team has to take advantage of a league minimum salary player who can combine excellent defense and average offense at an important defensive position. Teams that fail to take advantage of those assets are the same teams that have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly, and then not surprisingly those teams rarely find themselves in the playoffs.

Good baseball decisions help create good baseball teams. Bad baseball decisions help create bad baseball teams. Putting Chris Denorfia in center field is a flat out good baseball decision. Ignoring Chris Denorfia is an awful baseball decision.

The Reds have trended one way for the past half dozen years. We'll see how they treat Denorfia in 2007, which will go a long way toward seeing how the Reds want to trend going forward.

RedsManRick
02-15-2007, 06:16 PM
He may be the best in house option at the moment, but he's a AAAA player.

On Ryan Howard's 26th birthday he had a total of 311 AB in AAA and 351 in MLB. He produced at those levels when given the opportunity.

Though at a slight lower level of performance, Deno is in the same boat. You give these guys a full shot and they may pan out. You can't write them off until they have that shot though.

membengal
02-15-2007, 06:16 PM
reds44:

b/c, prior to last year, he was blocked by dunn/kearns/jr? He hasn't been up because there was nowhere for him. Now, hopefully, there is. What is so hard about that?

dsmith421
02-15-2007, 06:19 PM
I love the double standard. We all love Chris Denorfia because of what we hear about his defense, but *gasp* if you sign Seabass to play SS it's a terrible move.

Oh, I'm sorry, I must have missed where "Seabass" wasn't making 15 times more than Denorfia and has proven on multiple occasions that he can't hit major league pitching.

Unbelievable. People claim they want to develop young talent, and here you've got a guy who has done everything right in his development and now he's Brandon Larson on the basis of 140 at bats.

Johnny Footstool
02-15-2007, 06:19 PM
I love the double standard. We all love Chris Denorfia because of what we hear about his defense, but *gasp* if you sign Seabass to play SS it's a terrible move.

One guy makes league minimum and has proven that he can destroy minor league pitching.

The other guy costs several million dollars and has proven that he *can't* hit at the major league level. (And I'm not really opposed to the Seabass signing. It's a good, not great, move, IMO.)

Big difference.

Puffy
02-15-2007, 06:23 PM
reds44:

b/c, prior to last year, he was blocked by dunn/kearns/jr? He hasn't been up because there was nowhere for him. Now, hopefully, there is. What is so hard about that?

And Pena.

lollipopcurve
02-15-2007, 06:24 PM
His range is superb, he gets excellent jumps on balls, he takes excellent routes to balls, and his arm also rates as above average. His top speed and closing speed on fly balls is simply remarkable, and he's truly the best defensive outfielder I've seen in a Reds uniform since Mike Cameron in 1999.

I like Denorfia. I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an average centerfielder, at least, from an offensive standpoint. But I do not understand the source of this kind of praise for his prowess as a defender. He played all of 85 innings in CF for the Reds last year and posted a 2.11 range factor, per Baseball Reference. That's low. Griffey's ws 2.43 and Freel's was 2.95. League average was 2.58. People will say, oh, small sample size invalidates Deno's number here. I ask, well, what's the evidence then? Watching him play in person? If so, when does sample size factor into the validity of on-the-premises-eyewitness evidence? Is 85 innings enough to justify putting him in Cameron's company? Or do you just need to see him make a couple of nice grabs?

Is the BA rating the source of this high-flying praise?

Like I said, I like Denorfia and I hope he gets a shot. But until he landed the BA defensive tip o' the hat in 06, he'd never been tagged as a superb defender. He was known as a solid all around player with no outstanding tools, one of the tools being defense. In the course of his time in the minors, he's played all 3 OF spots -- he was never groomed as a pure CF. So, my take is that the flowing tributes to Deno as a CF are premature. Personally, I doubt he's better than Freel overall -- my guess is that he's got less range but more smarts, though it's difficult to say if Freel would learn the position better with more time out there and thus cut down on taking bad risks.

Like I said, I don't buy that Deno is in Mike Cameron territory out there. But I'm anxious to hear how folks have come to that conclusion.

membengal
02-15-2007, 06:24 PM
Yeah, and Pena. Him too. So what exactly has Denorfia done wrong to this point other than being in the wrong place at the wrong time when it comes to the numbers game in the outfield?

Always Red
02-15-2007, 06:35 PM
The most surprising thing to me is that Denorfia, in addition to all that is written above about him, seems to be Krivsky and Narron's kind of player. Great defense, scrappy (!).

He's proven everything in AAA that he can. He has not had a chance to prove anything yet with the Reds. There's a spot wide open in CF for him. It's now or never; I'd put him out there and not touch him for 2 months. If he doesn't hit, then adjust. Heck, they almost gave Norris Hopper more of a shot last year than Deno. I just don't get it. If they had given him a chance and he fell flat on his face, then so be it. But Denorfia's chance never came.

I think he's out of options. I doubt he'll being going back to Louisville again.

Cyclone792
02-15-2007, 06:38 PM
I like Denorfia. I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an average centerfielder, at least, from an offensive standpoint. But I do not understand the source of this kind of praise for his prowess as a defender. He played all of 85 innings in CF for the Reds last year and posted a 2.11 range factor, per Baseball Reference. That's low. Griffey's ws 2.43 and Freel's was 2.95. League average was 2.58. People will say, oh, small sample size invalidates Deno's number here. I ask, well, what's the evidence then? Watching him play in person? If so, when does sample size factor into the validity of on-the-premises-eyewitness evidence? Is 85 innings enough to justify putting him in Cameron's company? Or do you just need to see him make a couple of nice grabs?

Is the BA rating the source of this high-flying praise?

Like I said, I like Denorfia and I hope he gets a shot. But until he landed the BA defensive tip o' the hat in 06, he'd never been tagged as a superb defender. He was known as a solid all around player with no outstanding tools, one of the tools being defense. In the course of his time in the minors, he's played all 3 OF spots -- he was never groomed as a pure CF. So, my take is that the flowing tributes to Deno as a CF are premature. Personally, I doubt he's better than Freel overall -- my guess is that he's got less range but more smarts, though it's difficult to say if Freel would learn the position better with more time out there and thus cut down on taking bad risks.

Like I said, I don't buy that Deno is in Mike Cameron territory out there. But I'm anxious to hear how folks have come to that conclusion.

Range factor is an awful measuring stick for defense, especially with that sample size. In fact, his current sample size renders most defensive stats meaningless at the moment, but I will throw in the fact that Denorfia did post a .909 zone rating in center field last season, whatever that's worth given the sample size. Freel's was .877, and Griffey's was .822.

I know Denorfia's BA rating, and I've seen Denorfia's defense in person so I can verify that he deserves every ounce of that BA rating. Like M2 said awhile back, Denorfia's break and line to the ball is just simply pretty to watch.

I posted the following a month ago, and it still stands ...

--------

Freel's an above average defensive center fielder, and he's willing to dive for everything that's within his reach. Those are the plays people remember, and it's always the end of said plays that get the highlights. The problem is Freel's initial jump on balls is actually rather lousy, and the initial jump is something you'll rarely see on TV yet it's plainly visible from the box seats. His biggest problem is immediately judging the depth of a fly ball. He'll break in on balls that'll go over his head, and he'll break back on balls that wouldn't reach his position. One result of those bad jumps is some of the diving catches Freel makes wouldn't have required a diving catch if he had read the ball correctly off the bat initially. Luckily, Freel has the speed to oftentimes make up for his poor first read, though sometimes his bad jump has cost him.

Denorfia gets a much better jump on balls in the outfield than Freel, and he'll also take a better direct line to the spot on the field he has to be at to make the catch. He is the exact blueprint any team would want in a center fielder defensively, because he does everything very well defensively. The downside is if you're stuck watching him on television, you're robbed of seeing half of what makes Denorfia a great center fielder since you'll never see his first jump, where he was at in center when the bat made contact with the ball, or his full, direct line to the ball; you'll only see the end of the play as he's gliding over to make what looks like an easy grab.

--------

As for the Reds playing Denorfia around the outfield instead of specifically and only in center field, that's what the Reds used to do in their system a few years ago, and they may still do it now to a degree. They did it with Kearns, Dunn, Pena, and Denorfia so I wouldn't read anything into it. Last season, 76 percent of Denorfia's defensive innings came in center field, though. Jay Bruce last season split his time equally between center and right.

lollipopcurve
02-15-2007, 07:03 PM
Range factor is an awful measuring stick for defense, especially with that sample size. In fact, his current sample size renders most defensive stats meaningless at the moment, but I will throw in the fact that Denorfia did post a .909 zone rating in center field last season, whatever that's worth given the sample size. Freel's was .877, and Griffey's was .822.

I know Denorfia's BA rating, and I've seen Denorfia's defense in person so I can verify that he deserves every ounce of that BA rating. Like M2 said awhile back, Denorfia's break and line to the ball is just simply pretty to watch.

Well, I'll educate myself on the differences between RF and UZR, but, as you suggest, 43 innings in CF in 2005 is an awfully small sample size. How was his UZR vs Freel in 85 innings in 06? Is that data available?
So, it seems we're left with the eyesight evaluations of folks who are not professional scouts. Personally, I've seen enough of Freel to think we covers a lot of ground out there. I am by no means convinced that Deno can cover what Freel does, though I do agree that his semi-loping style has aesthetic merit.

Until a valid sample size has come in, I remain a long way from recognizing Deno as a Mike Cameron caliber defender in CF. And I'm not hating here, just trying to understand where folks are coming from.

reds44
02-15-2007, 07:21 PM
My point was, Rosenthal shouldn't be getting trashed for saying what he said. Denorfia is not a guy you look at and say, there is your replacement to Griffey right there. That being said, I think he should be in CF with Griffey in RF.

kbrake
02-15-2007, 07:36 PM
Freel cannot be the everyday CF for the same reason Griffey shouldn't. Neither one has the ability to stay healthy for a full season. This is where the extra relievers the Reds have should start being used. Package Freel and Coffey and see what that gets you. I would think that combo should bring in a pretty good CF.


Griffey moving has nothing to do with health. He flat out cant play CF anymore. The Reds can try to dress this move up all they want but the fact is we need someone who can cover ground in CF.

RedsManRick
02-15-2007, 07:41 PM
Griffey moving has nothing to do with health. He flat out cant play CF anymore. The Reds can try to dress this move up all they want but the fact is we need someone who can cover ground in CF.

Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.

Caveat Emperor
02-15-2007, 08:02 PM
Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.

The only injury the Reds are really trying to guard against is one to Griffey's pride.

Cyclone made a lot of great points, but the best one was as to cost -- if you can get above-average defense and league-average offensive production out of your CF for league-minimum cost and no added cost of players traded, then you'd be foolish to pass that up, especially when the alternative is genuinely awful defense.

blumj
02-15-2007, 09:03 PM
Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.
Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

redsmetz
02-15-2007, 09:04 PM
Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

Yeah, we have some real Dale Carnegie graduates around here sometimes. :eek:

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:12 PM
Wouldn't Josh Hamilton have to play a whole season in AA/AAA first to prove himself?

The one who said that Denorfia should get the same shot that Hamilton is going to get is right. The REDS are acting as if they're going to cut Hamilton if they don't see what they want to see this spring.

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:15 PM
The problems with Junior will never end until he leaves this franchise. Sad that one player can handcuff an organization for so long.

kbrake
02-15-2007, 09:18 PM
Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

Why not? Its is not a knock on Junior. I really like Griffey and even though the Reds might be better off without him, I am glad he is on the team. With that being said though I dont think it should be insulting to Griffey that the Reds want to move him to RF. The guy has a leg held together by metal. I think he plays as hard as anyone when he is out there and I think he has given a great effort to play the past few seasons with a body that just doesnt seem to want to allow him to play. I know it is easier when its not you that has to accept reality and move on, but I wish the Reds would just thank Griffey for what he has done in CF and tell him he will be moved to RF this year. And he wont get to hit 3rd anymore.

pedro
02-15-2007, 09:18 PM
I like Denorfia. I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an average centerfielder, at least, from an offensive standpoint. But I do not understand the source of this kind of praise for his prowess as a defender. He played all of 85 innings in CF for the Reds last year and posted a 2.11 range factor, per Baseball Reference. That's low. Griffey's ws 2.43 and Freel's was 2.95. League average was 2.58. People will say, oh, small sample size invalidates Deno's number here. I ask, well, what's the evidence then? Watching him play in person? If so, when does sample size factor into the validity of on-the-premises-eyewitness evidence? Is 85 innings enough to justify putting him in Cameron's company? Or do you just need to see him make a couple of nice grabs?

Is the BA rating the source of this high-flying praise?

Like I said, I like Denorfia and I hope he gets a shot. But until he landed the BA defensive tip o' the hat in 06, he'd never been tagged as a superb defender. He was known as a solid all around player with no outstanding tools, one of the tools being defense. In the course of his time in the minors, he's played all 3 OF spots -- he was never groomed as a pure CF. So, my take is that the flowing tributes to Deno as a CF are premature. Personally, I doubt he's better than Freel overall -- my guess is that he's got less range but more smarts, though it's difficult to say if Freel would learn the position better with more time out there and thus cut down on taking bad risks.

Like I said, I don't buy that Deno is in Mike Cameron territory out there. But I'm anxious to hear how folks have come to that conclusion.

In addition to the anecdotal evidence of having watched him play and being impressed by his defense I have to go on the fact that he was voted the best defensive CF in the International League last year. That has to be worth something.

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:23 PM
This team has way too many pitching holes to be trading people off for a CF when we already have one, at some point you have to accept that you won't have an allstar at every spot on the field, even after only 164 PA's Deno's OBP is good enough to be a starter.

That's true. An amazing OBP for as few of at-bats as he's had in the Majors.

You're also so right about not expecting every hole to be fixed. The Mets are considered by many to have the best outfield in the NL, and they'll be lucky if they end up getting a combined 700 AB's between Alou and Green, and those games will be a virtual circus out on the field.

We all know here that the biggest decision affecting the REDS this year is moving Junior out of Center Field. Why spend all that money on SS if you plan on keeping the NL's worst Center Fielder from last year at the same spot?

The Dale Carnegie reference was appropriate because the goal is to get Griffey out of Center, but if you can get him to think that he's making the decision it just makes for better relationships all the way around the club.

It's a problem that definitely will be best solved using Dale Carnegie's principles.

We're smiling for you, Junior.

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:25 PM
In addition to the anecdotal evidence of having watched him play and being impressed by his defense I have to go on the fact that he was voted the best defensive CF in the International League last year. That has to be worth something.

What more of an endorsement does one need? Guess Rosenthal wrote about something that he doesn't understand. He clearly failed to do any research on the matter.

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:30 PM
Craig Monroe is a solid player on one of the best outfields in the Majors. He's never been an outstanding hitter, but he has always been a good RBI guy. His strength was his defense when he was younger and he entered the league as an "older" rookie. Stats people wanted to get rid of this guy every year including last year, but he just keeps giving the Tigers serviceable years. He's turned into a hot and cold player that can carry the Tigers for a month or be terrible where he should be batting 9th in the order. Denorfia offers at least this much.

Nugget
02-15-2007, 09:36 PM
I think Ken Rosenthal has a very good take on the situation.

Cal Ripken Jr and Junior faced with same kind of situation. The Orioles gave some respect to Cal on the basis that we're getting a better established SS in. The REDS are affording Junior the same respect.

As much as everyone lauds Deno is he going to be the CF everyday. I don't think the Freel platoon is going to work as you are going to effectively have to carry six OF. If Freel and Deno make it its going to be on the basis that Deno is the everyday CF and Freel is the supersub utility guy. You would then have Hamilton/Crosby/Hopper as the fourth OF.

WVRedsFan
02-15-2007, 09:47 PM
I think the media strictly looks at Denorfia and says 'He's 26, thats too old for a guy to become a regular on an MLB team.' so he becomes an also ran in this story. They don't look at it like the last two seasons he may have been ready but was 'blocked' by Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns and the team preferred him everyday in AAA than 2 times a week in the bigs.

I agree, he should most likely be our opening day CFer.
Here's something to think about. I doubt it's just the media. I've looked at Denorfia's stats from the minors and it looks like he should have been in the high minors and majors before he was. There has to be a reason why he's as old as he is and just breaking in, and that has nothing to do with the media.

I look for the Reds to get another outfielder to play center this spring. Wayne and Jerrry (men of like minds) almost telegraphed it.

REDblooded
02-15-2007, 09:51 PM
I think the media strictly looks at Denorfia and says 'He's 26, thats too old for a guy to become a regular on an MLB team.' so he becomes an also ran in this story. They don't look at it like the last two seasons he may have been ready but was 'blocked' by Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns and the team preferred him everyday in AAA than 2 times a week in the bigs.

I agree, he should most likely be our opening day CFer.

If the media says 26 is too old, I'm pretty sure Krivsky disagrees.

26? 26!?? He's just a boy!!!

Conine, stanton's knuckles are tingling. Go grab my umbrella.

Eric_Davis
02-15-2007, 09:54 PM
Here's something to think about. I doubt it's just the media. I've looked at Denorfia's stats from the minors and it looks like he should have been in the high minors and majors before he was. There has to be a reason why he's as old as he is and just breaking in, and that has nothing to do with the media.

I look for the Reds to get another outfielder to play center this spring. Wayne and Jerrry (men of like minds) almost telegraphed it.

General Managers screw up all the time...guys who should be in the Majors this year won't be.

dougdirt
02-15-2007, 11:22 PM
The problems with Junior will never end until he leaves this franchise. Sad that one player can handcuff an organization for so long.

Junior doesnt handcuff the franchise. When he has been healthy, he has produced... outside of last year. As for the money he takes up, thats not his fault....that is ownerships for not opening up the wallet.

Natty Redlocks
02-15-2007, 11:58 PM
Junior doesnt handcuff the franchise. When he has been healthy, he has produced... outside of last year. As for the money he takes up, thats not his fault....that is ownerships for not opening up the wallet.

You don't think it's a little debilitating for a mid-market team to have their franchise player on the DL all the time? You don't think it limits them that they have to wait for him to decide he's ready to move to an OF corner so they don't bruise his widdle ego? You don't think they have to work within a budget?

I don't blame him for having a big contract. I don't blame him for getting hurt all the time. I do blame him for putting himself ahead of the team on a consistent basis. He does handcuff the franchise, and I for one can't wait for him to be gone.

kbrake
02-16-2007, 12:06 AM
Here's something to think about. I doubt it's just the media. I've looked at Denorfia's stats from the minors and it looks like he should have been in the high minors and majors before he was. There has to be a reason why he's as old as he is and just breaking in, and that has nothing to do with the media.

I look for the Reds to get another outfielder to play center this spring. Wayne and Jerrry (men of like minds) almost telegraphed it.

What part of he was blocked do people not get? Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Guillen, Pena, Freel. I dont care what you do in the minors thats a pretty good group of major league outfielders. Last year when Kearns was traded we were told it was Denorfia's chance to show what he could do. That lasted less than a week. They have never given him a chane and honestly if he doesnt get a legitimate chance soon I hope he is traded. It would be a shame for Denorfia to never get the chance to show what he can do at the major league level simply because people think 26 is too old to start playing in the majors.

noskill27
02-16-2007, 12:07 AM
I think the media strictly looks at Denorfia and says 'He's 26, thats too old for a guy to become a regular on an MLB team.' so he becomes an also ran in this story. They don't look at it like the last two seasons he may have been ready but was 'blocked' by Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns and the team preferred him everyday in AAA than 2 times a week in the bigs.


Very true. Amazing how they do that and then turn around an gush about a 25 year old who only has 89 AB over A-Ball and only 50 AB total the last four years....

noskill27
02-16-2007, 12:11 AM
Why spend all that money on SS if you plan on keeping the NL's worst Center Fielder from last year at the same spot?

It's better then having the worst defense in the league at shortstop AND centerfield. ;)

On a serious note, I'm glad the Reds have at least started the discussion instead of the way they've ignored it the last few years...

Handofdeath
02-16-2007, 01:25 AM
Even if Jr. could still play CF decently would you really want him to now? No. Why? He can't stay healthy. My whole point was, and I should have stated it more clearly, is that Freel is simply not a good option as an everyday CF because he can't be depended on to stay healthy. I do think Denorfia deserves a chance but I do not think that the pitching holes are there that would prevent the Reds from exploring a possible trade using one of the relievers as bait.

Razor Shines
02-16-2007, 02:26 AM
You don't think it's a little debilitating for a mid-market team to have their franchise player on the DL all the time? You don't think it limits them that they have to wait for him to decide he's ready to move to an OF corner so they don't bruise his widdle ego? You don't think they have to work within a budget?

I don't blame him for having a big contract. I don't blame him for getting hurt all the time. I do blame him for putting himself ahead of the team on a consistent basis. He does handcuff the franchise, and I for one can't wait for him to be gone.
You can blame him all you want, but he's a hall of famer and an all time great. Almost all of them act the way he's acting when it gets to this point in there careers. I mean the article said that "Jr. isn't as reluctant to switch as Ripken was". To be good enough to be considered a great player, it probably takes a lot of pride and confidence in your abilities for better or worse, and it's probably not something that's easy to let go of.

I'll be sorry to see him go when he does, and I'll relish the great moments he has along the way, even though they are getting fewer and further in between.

Ron Madden
02-16-2007, 04:46 AM
Why is he 26 and soon to be 27 and never been able to stick in the majors then? There are other players that hit AAA well and can't hit in the majors. I think I have gone on record numerous times as saying moving Griffey to right and having the Deno/Freel combinitation in CF is the best in house move for the team. However, that doesn't mean that the Denorfia is going to be a good player. Freel and him are going to have to play somewhere as the team currently stands right now, and if they are it might as well be in CF where you can take advantage of his skills.

I know it's an unpopular stance on this board, but I don't think he is the player everyone makes him out to be,


Many had little or no faith in Edwin this time last year.

He kinda grew on ya didn't he? ;)

Natty Redlocks
02-16-2007, 07:01 AM
You can blame him all you want, but he's a hall of famer and an all time great. Almost all of them act the way he's acting when it gets to this point in there careers. I mean the article said that "Jr. isn't as reluctant to switch as Ripken was". To be good enough to be considered a great player, it probably takes a lot of pride and confidence in your abilities for better or worse, and it's probably not something that's easy to let go of.

I'll be sorry to see him go when he does, and I'll relish the great moments he has along the way, even though they are getting fewer and further in between.

This is a good point. And if Junior had played in 2632 consecutives games, there's a pretty good chance people like myself would have a little more patience with the Diva-like attitude.

What stinks for Reds fans is that they got all the attitude of the superstar, but very little of the production. So it may be the norm for a future HOF but that sure don't mean we have to like it. And I'm not sure if I've said this before, but I don't like it. And I'm tired of the Reds and other Reds fans kissing his butt. It would have been great if it had worked out, but it didn't. I believe that now more than ever --with the offensive depth removed to improve the pitching and defense-- the Reds are counting on Junior to be healthy. And that sucks because we all know he won't be, so unless Josh Hamilton performs a miracle, it's going to be another frustrating season for us all. I have to go to work now. Have a nice day.

Razor Shines
02-16-2007, 07:40 AM
This is a good point. And if Junior had played in 2632 consecutives games, there's a pretty good chance people like myself would have a little more patience with the Diva-like attitude.

What stinks for Reds fans is that they got all the attitude of the superstar, but very little of the production. So it may be the norm for a future HOF but that sure don't mean we have to like it. And I'm not sure if I've said this before, but I don't like it. And I'm tired of the Reds and other Reds fans kissing his butt. It would have been great if it had worked out, but it didn't. I believe that now more than ever --with the offensive depth removed to improve the pitching and defense-- the Reds are counting on Junior to be healthy. And that sucks because we all know he won't be, so unless Josh Hamilton performs a miracle, it's going to be another frustrating season for us all. I have to go to work now. Have a nice day.

That's fine, but like I said I'll miss him when he's gone. He's a rare talent and when he's swinging well it's a beautiful thing to watch. Like Tiger Woods' golf swing, I could watch Tiger hit golf balls all day and I could watch Jr. hit baseballs all day (there I go "kissing his butt" again).

Redhook
02-16-2007, 08:25 AM
You don't think it's a little debilitating for a mid-market team to have their franchise player on the DL all the time? You don't think it limits them that they have to wait for him to decide he's ready to move to an OF corner so they don't bruise his widdle ego? You don't think they have to work within a budget?

I don't blame him for having a big contract. I don't blame him for getting hurt all the time. I do blame him for putting himself ahead of the team on a consistent basis. He does handcuff the franchise, and I for one can't wait for him to be gone.

Excellent post. It's bad enough that he gets hurt every single year. But on top of that, he refuses to do what's best for the team. Why does it seem like it's Junior's decision to move to RF? Shouldn't that be the manager's decision?


What stinks for Reds fans is that they got all the attitude of the superstar, but very little of the production. So it may be the norm for a future HOF but that sure don't mean we have to like it. And I'm not sure if I've said this before, but I don't like it. And I'm tired of the Reds and other Reds fans kissing his butt. It would have been great if it had worked out, but it didn't. I believe that now more than ever --with the offensive depth removed to improve the pitching and defense-- the Reds are counting on Junior to be healthy. And that sucks because we all know he won't be, so unless Josh Hamilton performs a miracle, it's going to be another frustrating season for us all. I have to go to work now. Have a nice day.

Another great post. It's not JR's fault that he can't stay healthy, but it really stinks that we are relying on him to perform all season this year. I, for one, would take 140 games, 25 homers, and 80 rbi from him right now. I think most of us would be happy with that. I guess that would be considered a successful year for JR., but that is an awful return on investment.

I wish Junior the best and I really hope he stays healthy, but it's sad that we're counting on that more than ever with him on the Reds.

Redhook
02-16-2007, 08:43 AM
Junior doesnt handcuff the franchise. When he has been healthy, he has produced... outside of last year.

He has produced when healthy. The problem is he's not always healthy and he doesn't seem willing to do what's best for the team. I do believe he handcuffs the team, and on top that, I think he swallowed the key.

Razor Shines
02-16-2007, 08:53 AM
Redhook;1243789]Excellent post. It's bad enough that he gets hurt every single year. But on top of that, he refuses to do what's best for the team. Why does it seem like it's Junior's decision to move to RF? Shouldn't that be the manager's decision?
Like I said, it's like that with almost all great players at this stage of their careers, especially CFers and SSs.



Another great post. It's not JR's fault that he can't stay healthy, but it really stinks that we are relying on him to perform all season this year. I, for one, would take 140 games, 25 homers, and 80 rbi from him right now. I think most of us would be happy with that. I guess that would be considered a successful year for JR., but that is an awful return on investment.

I wish Junior the best and I really hope he stays healthy, but it's sad that we're counting on that more than ever with him on the Reds.
Really? Because he produced better than that last year in 109 games. I think if he does play 140 games this year he'll have around 35 HRs, but I don't really think he'll play 140 games.

Razor Shines
02-16-2007, 08:57 AM
He has produced when healthy. The problem is he's not always healthy and he doesn't seem willing to do what's best for the team. I do believe he handcuffs the team, and on top that, I think he swallowed the key.
No, he swallowed the key.
http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e209/feliciajoy44/109-gob-magic2.jpg

Redhook
02-16-2007, 09:14 AM
Like I said, it's like that with almost all great players at this stage of their careers, especially CFers and SSs.

That doesn't make it right.


Really? Because he produced better than that last year in 109 games. I think if he does play 140 games this year he'll have around 35 HRs, but I don't really think he'll play 140 games.

Yes, I'd still take it. I'd be very happy if he was in the neighborhood of 25 homers and 80 rbi's....no matter how many games he plays. If he puts up those numbers, although not great, it means he atleast played a majority of the games which is much needed this year.

Like you, I do believe he could hit 35 homers if he played 140 games, but that's a big IF.

Hoosier Red
02-16-2007, 10:03 AM
There's a delicate line all athletes walk when dealing with declining production. Of course Jr. thinks he's the best center fielder on the team. He has to think that. He's had to carry that kind of confidence/arrogance to get to where he is.
The flip side of that is the player generally doesn't recognize his own limitations. It's really not possible for him to see that.

What this calls for is a manager who has the huevos to understand this confidence and move him anyway. That person has to understand Jr won't like it. Might even gripe about it. Might eventually win the argument. But the manager has to do what's best for the team.

I don't think this is Jr's fault at all.

Always Red
02-16-2007, 10:13 AM
I don't think this is Jr's fault at all.

I don't, either.

I totally agree with getting Junior out of CF, anyway possible. I know his offensive skills are in decline. I also know when he's healthy, he's still a dangerous stick, and also, that this Reds team needs him now more than ever. Also, Junior has shown to be very brittle as he's gotten older.

I don't blame him for any of this.

In fact, Junior WANTED to come to Cincinnati. No one really wants to come here anymore, and Junior wanted to. I'll not forget that.

I hope the Kid has a great year this year, I really do. But his track record is one of getting hurt, and not healing very quickly. That's just realism.:dunno:

SunDeck
02-16-2007, 10:35 AM
He also plays a hustling style that borders on reckless, which could endanger not only himself, but also Griffey in right and Adam Dunn in left.

Okay- I could see Freel running into Griffey and tearing him up, but a Freel/Dunn collision is another matter entirely. Dunn would end up with a slight bruise, but they'd be picking up bits and pieces of Ryan for weeks.

Triples
02-16-2007, 11:02 AM
I frankly don't know who would be the best replacement for JR if they move him to RF. Seems that Deno and Freel are the best candidates for 07. Someone smarter than me will have to make that decision. I do however have few thoughts about some of the comments/issues noted in this string:

1.) There is little doubt that JRs ability isn't what it used to be. But are we comparing him to the young JR or to the rest of the MLB CF's? Maybe JR is no longer a superstar talent but he might still be a tick above average. I would be happy if he could play 120-130 games, knock in 90-100 runs and smack 25 HRs. How many outfielders in the league could do that in 160 games.

2.) Seems to me that folks are inferring that JR is fighting the Reds brass to stay in CF. Seems like I heard recently that he said he would consider a move to RF if that was what was best for the team. Besides, I've never thought of JR as being a whinny selfish player. Nor have I heard him say that he is as good today as he was 10 years ago.

3.) JR brings a lot more to the Reds than just the talent he shows on the field. He has always been known as team leader, an example setter for young players and guy that plays the game the way its suppose to be played.

4.) Regarding putting JR and Freel together in the outfield. You have to take that chance. If there was another place for Dunn, I wouldn't hesitate to put another Freel like player in LF too. Athletic players will run around and make big plays, hold runners, make routine plays look easy and yes, occasionally they run into one another. That is a fairly rare occurance given the number of chances for it to happen. But, in exchange you get great defense. If you're worried about outfielders running in to one another, then get 3 slow guys and put them in the outfield. Not much chance they would run into one another, but you would also be seeing a lot of their backs as they run to the wall to pick up the ball.

Marc D
02-16-2007, 11:25 AM
If you're worried about outfielders running in to one another, then get 3 slow guys and put them in the outfield. Not much chance they would run into one another, but you would also be seeing a lot of their backs as they run to the wall to pick up the ball.

Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Conine RF

Collison worries averted.

BRM
02-16-2007, 11:28 AM
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Conine RF

Collison worries averted.

It would not surprise me to see that OF at least once this year.

osuceltic
02-16-2007, 11:29 AM
The thing that bothers me about the "Griffey would move if someone better were available" argument is that Freel and Denorfia both are better, and we're going to end up with one of them there anyway at some point, for a long stretch, because Junior will get hurt. It's not a maybe. It's an inevitability. And if this team doesn't see it as an inevitability, they're making a terrible mistake.

Triples
02-16-2007, 11:36 AM
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Conine RF

Collison worries averted.

Maybe I should have said "take 3 of our slow guys" and put them in the outfield. Altough, I'm not sure I would label JR as "slow" quite yet. At least not on the same level as the others mentioned.

Marc D
02-16-2007, 11:45 AM
Maybe I should have said "take 3 of our slow guys" and put them in the outfield. Altough, I'm not sure I would label JR as "slow" quite yet. At least not on the same level as the others mentioned.


Your right. Jr gets the "tallest midget" award for being the most fleet afoot in that outfield.

And yes, sadly enough I bet we see it at some point this year. I have every faith in Narron to consistently deploy his limited resources as inefficiently as possible.

Triples
02-16-2007, 11:56 AM
Your right. Jr gets the "tallest midget" award for being the most fleet afoot in that outfield.

And yes, sadly enough I bet we see it at some point this year. I have every faith in Narron to consistently deploy his limited resources as inefficiently as possible.

Marc D:

Agreed, we might see this lineup sometime this year. Its a 162 game schedule and DiMaggio is dead and Ripken is busy doing other stuff so its pretty likely that 1st teamers will get a break sometime during the year. Let's just hope that it doesn't happen frequently. Although, I'm not sure I would place all the blame on Narron, he has to play the cards in his hand.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-16-2007, 11:59 AM
The thing that bothers me about the "Griffey would move if someone better were available" argument is that Freel and Denorfia both are better, and we're going to end up with one of them there anyway at some point, for a long stretch, because Junior will get hurt. It's not a maybe. It's an inevitability. And if this team doesn't see it as an inevitability, they're making a terrible mistake.

Maybe Freel and Deno are better in centerfield but, nobody in their right mind should expect one of the best centerfielders to ever play the game to come out and say that either one of the unproven options we have in house is better than him. Also who's to say Griffey can stay healthy in rightfield, I think we let him play where he wants for another year or two if he promises to play first base when Homer starts his first opening day.

BRM
02-16-2007, 12:00 PM
Agreed, we might see this lineup sometime this year. Its a 162 game schedule and DiMaggio is dead and Ripken is busy doing other stuff so its pretty likely that 1st teamers will get a break sometime during the year. Let's just hope that it doesn't happen frequently. Although, I'm not sure I would place all the blame on Narron, he has to play the cards in his hand.

Yes, he has to play the cards in his hand. However, barring injuries, that OF should never, ever take the field together.

Triples
02-16-2007, 12:03 PM
Yes, he has to play the cards in his hand. However, barring injuries, that OF should never, ever take the field together.

Agreed..."barring injuries" (I'd add, illnesses, dying parents, babies being born, etc etc, anything that could keep a couple guys out of the line up on a given day).

BRM
02-16-2007, 12:03 PM
Also who's to say Griffey can stay healthy in rightfield, I think we let him play where he wants for another year or two if he promises to play first base when Homer starts his first opening day.

He'll probably get hurt in RF too. That's beside the point though. This has nothing to do with protecting him from injury to me. This has everything to do with maximizing the available talent to put the best team out on the field and in the best positions to succeed. Junior in RF is what's best for the team, defensively.

M2
02-16-2007, 12:24 PM
Why is he 26 and soon to be 27 and never been able to stick in the majors then?

Well, he's barely been given a shot in the majors, but he has hit a bit in the limited exposure he's gotten. In other words, he's shown that he's probably capable of doing the job if someone in the Reds organization would have the foresight to play him. He's more than earned it. He's been an All-Star in AAA, he had a good spring training in 2006.

I don't get the Reds. They need young players to step up and yet the organization won't trust them, even when it's a the sort of well-rounded gamer they supposedly want to bring into the mix. It's dopey and stupid and stuff like this makes the Reds hard to root for at times.

They can help themselves and if they won't, then they pretty much deserve to falter.

Always Red
02-16-2007, 12:35 PM
Well, he's barely been given a shot in the majors, but he has hit a bit in the limited exposure he's gotten. In other words, he's shown that he's probably capable of doing the job if someone in the Reds organization would have the foresight to play him. He's more than earned it. He's been an All-Star in AAA, he had a good spring training in 2006.

I don't get the Reds. They need young players to step up and yet the organization won't trust them, even when it's a the sort of well-rounded gamer they supposedly want to bring into the mix. It's dopey and stupid and stuff like this makes the Reds hard to root for at times.

They can help themselves and if they won't, then they pretty much deserve to falter.

True enough, but they had no problem plugging in Brandon Phillips, even when they did have 11 other 2nd basemen at the time.

Personally, I think Denorfia ticked off someone in the FO, somewhere along the line, maybe even Narron. At bats that should have gone to him in 2006 wound up going to Hopper, Hollandsworth, McCracken, Wise and even Cody Ross.

He got a late start because he was a four year college player, and because he was behind some fine OF'ers, as stated above. Two of those guys (Pena, Kearns) are gone now.

If WK doesn't plan to use him, I wish he'd trade him away, maybe for a 39 yr old LH middle reliever ;) ; I'd love to see what Denorfia could do if given a chance.

membengal
02-16-2007, 12:36 PM
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Conine RF

Collison worries averted.

In that scenario, there would be two types of balls to the outfield:

1. Balls hit right at them
2. Balls rolling to the wall

BRM
02-16-2007, 12:42 PM
I don't get the Reds. They need young players to step up and yet the organization won't trust them, even when it's a the sort of well-rounded gamer they supposedly want to bring into the mix. It's dopey and stupid and stuff like this makes the Reds hard to root for at times.

They can help themselves and if they won't, then they pretty much deserve to falter.

It is very odd with Denorfia. The Reds were more than willing to give Phillips and Encarnacion a legitimate chance (although EE had to ride the bench briefly in July) but they don't seem all that interested in Deno. He really should be the frontrunner for the CF job in 2007 but as of right now it appears he's simply fighting for a spot on the active roster. I'd love to know the reason why the Reds aren't high on him but I suspect we'll never find out.

It will not surprise me at all to see him traded during the spring for a low-upside pitcher or an older centerfielder who likely will be no better than Deno or Freel but will cost much more....just to appease Junior.

Marc D
02-16-2007, 12:45 PM
In that scenario, there would be two types of balls to the outfield:

1. Balls hit right at them
2. Balls rolling to the wall


Agreed. The Uecker "wait till it stops rolling and pick it up" defensive technique would be put to frequent use.

M2
02-16-2007, 12:59 PM
True enough, but they had no problem plugging in Brandon Phillips, even when they did have 11 other 2nd basemen at the time.

My guess is the difference between Phillips along with the man-love the team has for Hamilton and what you're seeing with Denorfia (and to a lesser extent EdE) is the former group had pedigrees.

Phillips and Hamilton were big deal prospects once upon a time. To a degree they don't require you to use any judgment on your own, you simply can fall back on their former hype and hope there was something to it. They offer the safety of group-think ratification. The baseball industry has agreed they have potential.

Denorfia has no pedigree. All he does is play baseball well. He doesn't come with industry-approved potential. He's not going to get a shot by tearing the cover off the ball in spring training. He's not going to get a shot by making the most of his chances coming off the bench. If the organization can ignore what he's already done, then it can ignore anything. What's going to give Denorfia a break is a manager or GM who's willing to say, "I don't care about pedigrees. This kid is a ballplayer and we're playing him."

I don't see where the Reds can afford to stifle a legitimate young player when they've got one that's come up from their minors, but so far I have little hope that they'll do anything but that in regards to Denorfia.

Red Leader
02-16-2007, 01:01 PM
Oddly, I think the Reds think Denorfia is Steve Smitherman v2.0.

Always Red
02-16-2007, 01:04 PM
^ excellent point, M2. Denorfia's going to have to continue to fight an uphill battle, at least with this team, because I don't see WK or JN giving him that chance.

BRM
02-16-2007, 01:07 PM
I see what you are saying M2 but if that's the case, it's an awfully lazy approach. BP and Hamilton were once top prospects, therefore we won't look stupid if we give them extended looks to earn a job. Deno is a nobody. We'll look pretty stupid if we hand him the CF job and ask the hall-of-famer to move to RF. I think there has to be more to it than that. If the above is really the jist of it, the Reds brass is an extremely lazy and scared bunch.

Chip R
02-16-2007, 01:08 PM
Perhaps the lack of love for Deno stems from the fact that he's from a previous regime whereas a guy like Phillips was picked up by Wayne. Look how many guys Wayne has gotten rid of who were picked up by JimBo and DanO.

BRM
02-16-2007, 01:10 PM
Perhaps the lack of love for Deno stems from the fact that he's from a previous regime whereas a guy like Phillips was picked up by Wayne. Look how many guys Wayne has gotten rid of who were picked up by JimBo and DanO.

I sure hope that's not it. All of the Reds top prospects (Bailey, Bruce, Votto) are from previous regimes. So is Edwin Encarnacion. I hope the plan isn't to jettison them soon.

M2
02-16-2007, 01:17 PM
^ excellent point, M2. Denorfia's going to have to continue to fight an uphill battle, at least with this team, because I don't see WK or JN giving him that chance.

I hope they do, mainly because he really is what they need and ostensibly want.

Chip R
02-16-2007, 01:23 PM
I sure hope that's not it. All of the Reds top prospects (Bailey, Bruce, Votto) are from previous regimes. So is Edwin Encarnacion. I hope the plan isn't to jettison them soon.


I don't think they will get rid of everyone from the previous regime(s). Harang and Dunn were signed to multi-year deals and I don't think Wayne is dumb enough to get rid of Bailey even though he wasn't drafted by him. But I could see him and his people evaluating players and if there's some kind of rap on them - like Deno not being able to hit big league pitching or EE not being able to field the ball well enough on a consistent basis - they say, "You know, he's not one of our guys." And that's a perfectly valid point of view. If you are going to build your team, you should have guys you want. But your guys better be better players than the ones you got rid of.

BRM
02-16-2007, 01:25 PM
I know what you mean Chip. Nice use of bolded words. ;)

klw
02-16-2007, 01:25 PM
[QUOTE=BRM;1243889]It is very odd with Denorfia. The Reds were more than willing to give Phillips and Encarnacion a legitimate chance (although EE had to ride the bench briefly in July) but they don't seem all that interested in Deno. He really should be the frontrunner for the CF job in 2007 but as of right now it appears he's simply fighting for a spot on the active roster. I'd love to know the reason why the Reds aren't high on him but I suspect we'll never find out. QUOTE]


The big difference is that prior to the trade Denorfia was blocked by "the 3" wheras Phillips and Encarnacion were not similarly blocked early in the year. In April the risk of playing an inexperienced player appeared far lower as expectations for the team were lower and there was no active playoff struggle. When the trade went down the Reds were only 4 games out in mid July and they remained in the appearance of contention until the end of summer. The perceived risk of starting an unkown for long during a playoff push is greater than early in the year. Deno slumped right after the trade. Once the options were gone and the Reds were 7 out with 15 to go, he was reinserted and performed well through the end of the year. His Sept numbers were .352 .407 .463 .870. I would expect the Reds to give him every chance to win the CF job in the Spring and early in the year when the added pressure of a pennant push is not there. The lack of a pennant push allows for more patience from management and also raises the perception that he is being put into a position in which he can succeed. (see the Red Sox decision to have Lester's first start be against Texas at home instead of agains the NYY in NY.)

lollipopcurve
02-16-2007, 01:45 PM
Denorfia has no pedigree. All he does is play baseball well. He doesn't come with industry-approved potential. He's not going to get a shot by tearing the cover off the ball in spring training. He's not going to get a shot by making the most of his chances coming off the bench. If the organization can ignore what he's already done, then it can ignore anything. What's going to give Denorfia a break is a manager or GM who's willing to say, "I don't care about pedigrees. This kid is a ballplayer and we're playing him."

Eh. Don't buy it. Narron likes Hopper -- no pedigree. Lopez and Kearns had great pedigree -- traded. Pena, on the map since he was 16 -- traded.

Pedigree is certainly a sorting criteria for people outside the game who try to evaluate players through print. It also has a bearing within organizations when some players have been given millions to succeed while others have been given bus rides. But that's not the battle Deno is in, if the battle is for a starting spot, as you suggest. If Deno is battling to start, he's in there against Freel, Griffey and Dunn. Nowhere have I seen that Hopper or Hamilton has a shot at starting for the Reds. So, if you think the Reds are shortshrifting Deno by not installing him as the starting CF, then you must be saying he's more deserving than Freel, Griffey or Dunn.

Or am I missing something?

KronoRed
02-16-2007, 01:49 PM
Dunn LF
Griffey CF
Conine RF

Collison worries averted.
Worst outfield defence..ever.

M2
02-16-2007, 02:21 PM
Eh. Don't buy it. Narron likes Hopper -- no pedigree. Lopez and Kearns had great pedigree -- traded. Pena, on the map since he was 16 -- traded.

Narron loves Hopper so much in fact that Hopper seemingly has zero chance of making the roster (falling behind Denorfia, Hamilton and Crosby on the backup OF list).

As for the others, nowhere did you see me say that teams obsessively hold onto all guys with pedigrees, just that the pedigree makes it easy for a new team to give a guy a legitimate trial.


Pedigree is certainly a sorting criteria for people outside the game who try to evaluate players through print. It also has a bearing within organizations when some players have been given millions to succeed while others have been given bus rides. But that's not the battle Deno is in, if the battle is for a starting spot, as you suggest. If Deno is battling to start, he's in there against Freel, Griffey and Dunn. Nowhere have I seen that Hopper or Hamilton has a shot at starting for the Reds. So, if you think the Reds are shortshrifting Deno by not installing him as the starting CF, then you must be saying he's more deserving than Freel, Griffey or Dunn.

Or am I missing something?

Yeah, I'm saying he's more deserving. Of all the OFs in the Reds camp, there's exactly one I could see playing a good defensive CF with an .800+ OPS.

As for what sort of criteria pedigree is, baseball is a hotbed for group-think. It's got boxes within boxes within boxes, creating a Russian nesting doll effect where it's difficult for anyone to ever truly get outside the box.

No matter what your take on how Narron's handling the Jr. situation, Narron is paying lip service to the group-think notion that you can't just shift Jr. over. It's leading him down a dangerous. I maintain it becomes exponentially harder to stage a happy transition if you let Jr. head out to CF with a glove on his hand for that first ST game. Then Jr.'s no longer thinking he's the CF, he IS the CF and it becomes a matter of what's he done wrong in the past day/week/month to lose the job.

Baseball has got so many variables and involves so many people that paths of least resistance and comfortable truisms can seem like necessities. That's where a pedigree looms large. Yeah, any number of players could pan out, but which ones will pan out? And how do you convince all the people who need convincing (owner, front office, coaches, players) that a kid who hasn't already done it deserves a chance? It becomes a lot easier when you've got a pedigree to wave in front of them. A kid with a pedigree will get a ton of chances to fail. A kid without one can get passed over for years before he gets a legitimate shot.

Krusty
02-16-2007, 02:23 PM
Eh. Don't buy it. Narron likes Hopper -- no pedigree. Lopez and Kearns had great pedigree -- traded. Pena, on the map since he was 16 -- traded.

Pedigree is certainly a sorting criteria for people outside the game who try to evaluate players through print. It also has a bearing within organizations when some players have been given millions to succeed while others have been given bus rides. But that's not the battle Deno is in, if the battle is for a starting spot, as you suggest. If Deno is battling to start, he's in there against Freel, Griffey and Dunn. Nowhere have I seen that Hopper or Hamilton has a shot at starting for the Reds. So, if you think the Reds are shortshrifting Deno by not installing him as the starting CF, then you must be saying he's more deserving than Freel, Griffey or Dunn.

Or am I missing something?

Denorfia will have to prove himself in spring training but unless he totally flops, I expect him to get the majority of starts in center. And does anyone think Freel can play 130+ games in CF considering the reckless abandonment he plays defensively?

RedsManRick
02-16-2007, 02:40 PM
The key issue here is that Junior doesn't get to decide what's best for the team. If he's asked to move positions, does he deserve an explanation? Of course. However, he doesn't get to say "I don't think Chris Denorfia is better than me. Get Torii Hunter and I'll move."

I think Junior has enough integrity not to pull a Gary Sheffield / Derek Bell / Bobby Bonilla and institute Operation Shutdown. If Narron is so deferential that he won't move Junior unless he gets a thumbs up from him, we have a problem.

Shaggy Sanchez
02-16-2007, 02:54 PM
I think what is realy telling about the entire situation is that we keep hearing the same things from different people. If the front office really thought that Freel or Deno was a good option to take over CF I believe it would have gotten out at some point. To this point we keep hearing why Freel and Deno aren't the option and the thing is writers get their info from somewhere.

Krusty
02-16-2007, 03:07 PM
All you have to do is look at Denorfia's minor league stats especially the last two seasons to know it is his time to step forward as an everyday major leaguer. Krivsky loves the guy and even though his defense in center is extraordinary, his offense should be able to put up numbers in the .280-.300 average range while having a decent on base percentage.

It just cracks me up how his age is an issue with several. Twenty-seven isn't that old. And does it really matter how old the guy is if he gets the job done?

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=8833

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 03:12 PM
Well, I'll educate myself on the differences between RF and UZR, but, as you suggest, 43 innings in CF in 2005 is an awfully small sample size. How was his UZR vs Freel in 85 innings in 06? Is that data available?

So, it seems we're left with the eyesight evaluations of folks who are not professional scouts. Personally, I've seen enough of Freel to think we covers a lot of ground out there. I am by no means convinced that Deno can cover what Freel does, though I do agree that his semi-loping style has aesthetic merit.

Until a valid sample size has come in, I remain a long way from recognizing Deno as a Mike Cameron caliber defender in CF. And I'm not hating here, just trying to understand where folks are coming from.

You've seen a mirage if you think that Freel can cover more ground than Denorfia. Or in other words, you're seeing Freel having to bust his tail with flair and dramatic trying to make-up for his mistakes whereas Denorfia can make the same catch look nonchalant, hence the semi-loping aesthetic merit.

Denorfia's jump is considerably better than Freel's, and it doesn't take a professional scout to understand the difference between those two in the outfield. In fact, Freel's jump is so lousy at times that it's almost impossible to not notice if you're down at the game. He has a tendency to freeze for a moment after the bat makes contact with the ball, and when he freezes he loses all hope for a great jump. Denorfia's already moving with the pitch and swing, and there's no freeze in his jump. When the bat makes contact with the ball, Denorfia's already heading to the spot in the outfield where he needs to be to make the catch.

Freel's lines to balls in the outfield are also inconsistent and spotty at times, especially on balls hit directly over his head. Too often his lines aren't straight, but rather in a circular fashion so he's having to cover more ground than necessary to reach the spot on the field to make the catch. Denorfia is much more consistent with the correct line, and he's able to reach those balls with much more ease.

jojo
02-16-2007, 03:15 PM
You've seen a mirage if you think that Freel can cover more ground than Denorfia. Or in other words, you're seeing Freel having to bust his tail with flair and dramatic trying to make-up for his mistakes whereas Denorfia can make the same catch look nonchalant, hence the semi-loping aesthetic merit.

Denorfia's jump is considerably better than Freel's, and it doesn't take a professional scout to understand the difference between those two in the outfield. In fact, Freel's jump is so lousy at times that it's almost impossible to not notice if you're down at the game. He has a tendency to freeze for a moment after the bat makes contact with the ball, and when he freezes he loses all hope for a great jump. Denorfia's already moving with the pitch and swing, and there's no freeze in his jump. When the bat makes contact with the ball, Denorfia's already heading to the spot in the outfield where he needs to be to make the catch.

Freel's lines to balls in the outfield are also inconsistent and spotty at times, especially on balls hit directly over his head. Too often his lines aren't straight, but rather in a circular fashion so he's having to cover more ground than necessary to reach the spot on the field to make the catch. Denorfia is much more consistent with the correct line, and he's able to reach those balls with much more ease.

Absolutely....

westofyou
02-16-2007, 03:18 PM
He has a tendency to freeze for a moment after the bat makes contact with the ball, and when he freezes he loses all hope for a great jump.

And counting the stitches on the ball got him pushed off 3rd base. The point is fielding doesn't transcend well over the airwaves and players often have tics that you don't see until you see them play the position over and over.

jojo
02-16-2007, 03:26 PM
Range factor is an awful measuring stick for defense, especially with that sample size. In fact, his current sample size renders most defensive stats meaningless at the moment

Yes......Yes.....and Yes (doing my best Meg Ryan impersonation). I'd also add, Denorfia has a minor league history that supports the notion that he's an above average defender.

A summary of the 5 available-to-the-public projection tools suggest Denorfia will put up numbers like this: .292/.357/.441 in '07. If he can do that with his bat while playing the kind of defense that he's capable of, he's a borderline all-star center fielder. At league minimum, he would be one of the best values in baseball.

Triples
02-16-2007, 03:50 PM
Narron loves Hopper so much in fact that Hopper seemingly has zero chance of making the roster (falling behind Denorfia, Hamilton and Crosby on the backup OF list).

As for the others, nowhere did you see me say that teams obsessively hold onto all guys with pedigrees, just that the pedigree makes it easy for a new team to give a guy a legitimate trial.



Yeah, I'm saying he's more deserving. Of all the OFs in the Reds camp, there's exactly one I could see playing a good defensive CF with an .800+ OPS.

As for what sort of criteria pedigree is, baseball is a hotbed for group-think. It's got boxes within boxes within boxes, creating a Russian nesting doll effect where it's difficult for anyone to ever truly get outside the box.

No matter what your take on how Narron's handling the Jr. situation, Narron is paying lip service to the group-think notion that you can't just shift Jr. over. It's leading him down a dangerous. I maintain it becomes exponentially harder to stage a happy transition if you let Jr. head out to CF with a glove on his hand for that first ST game. Then Jr.'s no longer thinking he's the CF, he IS the CF and it becomes a matter of what's he done wrong in the past day/week/month to lose the job.

Baseball has got so many variables and involves so many people that paths of least resistance and comfortable truisms can seem like necessities. That's where a pedigree looms large. Yeah, any number of players could pan out, but which ones will pan out? And how do you convince all the people who need convincing (owner, front office, coaches, players) that a kid who hasn't already done it deserves a chance? It becomes a lot easier when you've got a pedigree to wave in front of them. A kid with a pedigree will get a ton of chances to fail. A kid without one can get passed over for years before he gets a legitimate shot.

M2:

Guess I'm in agreement with Lollipopcurve. If this was all about pedigree why would Freel be contending for one of the spots. 10th round pick, 12 years ago?? Don't get me wrong, I do want to see Denorfia get his chance but somewhere along the line he's not doing something the front office wants him to do. And economically, he would be cheaper than Freel, JR or Dunn. It can't be making much more than the league minimum.

I think your line of reasoning that says guys with pedigrees get more opportunities applies to a greater degree at the lower minor league levels and when a player is newer to the league. Of course a guy that the club has a big investment in (eg $250k+ signing bonus) will get more breaks/chances/opportunities than one that the team has a small investment in. However, by the time the selection for ML players is getting made I do believe that the original signing bonus or investment is no longer a factor. That becomes ancient history. The big league owners, GMs and to a lesser degree field managers are worried about putting butts in seats, TV revenue etc. Putting an "investement" on the field instead of the most talented player isn't economically smart. Granted, those decision makers sometimes make bad choices but I don't believe its about pedigree is just a bad judge of talent.

lollipopcurve
02-16-2007, 03:58 PM
You've seen a mirage if you think that Freel can cover more ground than Denorfia. Or in other words, you're seeing Freel having to bust his tail with flair and dramatic trying to make-up for his mistakes whereas Denorfia can make the same catch look nonchalant, hence the semi-loping aesthetic merit.

Denorfia's jump is considerably better than Freel's, and it doesn't take a professional scout to understand the difference between those two in the outfield. In fact, Freel's jump is so lousy at times that it's almost impossible to not notice if you're down at the game. He has a tendency to freeze for a moment after the bat makes contact with the ball, and when he freezes he loses all hope for a great jump. Denorfia's already moving with the pitch and swing, and there's no freeze in his jump. When the bat makes contact with the ball, Denorfia's already heading to the spot in the outfield where he needs to be to make the catch.

Freel's lines to balls in the outfield are also inconsistent and spotty at times, especially on balls hit directly over his head. Too often his lines aren't straight, but rather in a circular fashion so he's having to cover more ground than necessary to reach the spot on the field to make the catch. Denorfia is much more consistent with the correct line, and he's able to reach those balls with much more ease.

Put it this way -- I hope you're right. I watch a lot of Reds on TV, and it appears to me Freel has gotten better and better out there. Remember, he came up as an infielder. He is able to track down some balls that, off the bat, you don't think many outfielders could get to. What I have seen of Deno, and it isn't much, is that he's solid out there, but not special. Not enough innings, I guess. Ultimately, unless defensive metrics are completely unreliable, you'd have to think the numbers would show the disparity you're describing. All I've got to go on, for now, are numbers that show the opposite of what you're saying. I don't see how you can expect me to be persuaded...

Why is Freel's range factor in CF (2.95) so much higher than league average (2.58)? Can someone explain?

reds44
02-16-2007, 03:59 PM
Many had little or no faith in Edwin this time last year.

He kinda grew on ya didn't he? ;)
Edwin was 23, not 26. Bit of a difference. Btw, I never didn't have faith in him.

reds44
02-16-2007, 04:01 PM
Yes......Yes.....and Yes (doing my best Meg Ryan impersonation). I'd also add, Denorfia has a minor league history that supports the notion that he's an above average defender.

A summary of the 5 available-to-the-public projection tools suggest Denorfia will put up numbers like this: .292/.357/.441 in '07. If he can do that with his bat while playing the kind of defense that he's capable of, he's a borderline all-star center fielder. At league minimum, he would be one of the best values in baseball.
If Denorfia does that, I will be thrilled. Shocked, but thrilled.

jojo
02-16-2007, 04:04 PM
Put it this way -- I hope you're right. I watch a lot of Reds on TV, and it appears to me Freel has gotten better and better out there. Remember, he came up as an infielder. He is able to track down some balls that, off the bat, you don't think many outfielders could get to. What I have seen of Deno, and it isn't much, is that he's solid out there, but not special. Not enough innings, I guess. Ultimately, unless defensive metrics are completely unreliable, you'd have to think the numbers would show the disparity you're describing. All I've got to go on, for now, are numbers that show the opposite of what you're saying. I don't see how you can expect me to be persuaded...

Why is Freel's range factor in CF (2.95) so much higher than league average (2.58)? Can someone explain?

Range factor is flawed so why get hung up on it? Nobody is questioning Freel's speed by the way. I'd also suggest that there isn't a large enough sample size for either Deno or Freel to reliably use defensive metrics as the end all when evaluating them....

reds44
02-16-2007, 04:06 PM
Range factor is flawed so why get hung up on it? Nobody is questioning Freel's speed by the way. I'd also suggest that there isn't a large enough sample size for either Deno or Freel to reliably use defensive metrics as the end all when evaluating them....
How is it flawed? What defensive system isn't flawed then? How is there a way to know who is the better defender?

jojo
02-16-2007, 04:07 PM
If Denorfia does that, I will be thrilled. Shocked, but thrilled.

Why though?

Here's Deno's minor league totals: .296/.377/.441

Here's what he did in Loooeeeeeeevul:
'05: .310/.391/.505
'06: .349/.409/.484

reds44
02-16-2007, 04:11 PM
Why though?

Here's Deno's minor league totals: .296/.377/.441

Here's what he did in Loooeeeeeeevul:
'05: .310/.391/.505
'06: .349/.409/.484
Stats don't always tell the entire story, you know that. I just don't think he has the talent to hit at this level for an entire season. I hope I am wrong.

I could see him hitting .250 with a .330 OBP this year. That's not terrible, especially qhwn you consider his defense,

jojo
02-16-2007, 04:17 PM
How is it flawed? What defensive system isn't flawed then? How is there a way to know who is the better defender?

range factor= (Putouts + Assists) x 9 divided by Defensive Innings Played

That is like using a meat cleaver to operate on the brain compared to the much more precise scalpels represented by the modern gold standard defensive systems like, UZR, Chris Dial's ZR, PMR, Range etc that use play by play data and quadrant-based analysis.

dsmith421
02-16-2007, 04:19 PM
I could see him hitting .250 with a .330 OBP this year. That's not terrible, especially qhwn you consider his defense,

I'm relatively confident that, if Denorfia gets a full season in center field, he'll produce more runs at the plate and save more runs in the field than Alex Gonzalez.

Chip R
02-16-2007, 04:26 PM
Put it this way -- I hope you're right. I watch a lot of Reds on TV, and it appears to me Freel has gotten better and better out there. Remember, he came up as an infielder. He is able to track down some balls that, off the bat, you don't think many outfielders could get to. What I have seen of Deno, and it isn't much, is that he's solid out there, but not special. Not enough innings, I guess. Ultimately, unless defensive metrics are completely unreliable, you'd have to think the numbers would show the disparity you're describing. All I've got to go on, for now, are numbers that show the opposite of what you're saying. I don't see how you can expect me to be persuaded...



Arguing about whether Deno or Freel is the better OFer is like arguing who has more power, Adam Dunn or Wily Mo Pena. Both are fine defensive OFers. You put either one in CF and you don't have many worries defensively. At the very least you don't have to worry about Jr. there.

jojo
02-16-2007, 04:28 PM
Stats don't always tell the entire story, you know that.

Right but what reason is there to doubt that his aren't representative?

I'm not saying he projects as a legit all-star over the course of his career. I think when it's all said and done he'll be closer to a fourth outfielder but what he brings to the table not only makes him a very good value, it also suggests he's currently the best option for centerfield on the roster...

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 04:34 PM
Put it this way -- I hope you're right. I watch a lot of Reds on TV, and it appears to me Freel has gotten better and better out there. Remember, he came up as an infielder. He is able to track down some balls that, off the bat, you don't think many outfielders could get to. What I have seen of Deno, and it isn't much, is that he's solid out there, but not special. Not enough innings, I guess. Ultimately, unless defensive metrics are completely unreliable, you'd have to think the numbers would show the disparity you're describing. All I've got to go on, for now, are numbers that show the opposite of what you're saying. I don't see how you can expect me to be persuaded...

Why is Freel's range factor in CF (2.95) so much higher than league average (2.58)? Can someone explain?

A disproportionally high volume of fly balls allowed by the Reds' pitching staff will result in higher range factor numbers for the team's outfielders.

IIRC, the league average fly ball percentage is somewhere around 35 percent. I'm not sure what the Reds as a team were in regards to fly ball percentage in 2006, but Harang, Arroyo, and Milton - the three Reds pitchers with the most innings in 2006 - had fly ball percentages last season of 40 percent, 41 percent, and 50 percent, respectively. That's a big chunk of innings that were fly ball friendly.

Griffey's been far-and-away the worst defensive center fielder in all of baseball the past two seasons. But his range factors of 2.46 in 2005 and 2.43 in 2006 portray him as only in a slightly below average to below average center fielder. The only reason his range factors are that high is because the Reds' pitching staff has been a fly ball staff.

Of course, when you think about two key aspects of the Reds pitching staff - lower than average strikeout rate (i.e. more balls in play allowed) and higher than average fly ball rate - it becomes even more imperative to get a plus plus defender such as Denorfia into center field. Given this team's pitching staff, Denorfia's impact on the team's defense would be even greater than if he were on a "normal" pitching staff due to the differences in ball-in-play and fly ball rates.

realistic
02-16-2007, 04:56 PM
Junior doesnt handcuff the franchise. When he has been healthy, he has produced... outside of last year. As for the money he takes up, thats not his fault....that is ownerships for not opening up the wallet.

Id even say he produced offensively last year with 27hrs/72rbi/ in 428 ab's . Compare that to everyones superhero Adam Dunn with 40/92/561. I also think Dunn is more of a defensive liabilty myself. But thats another story.

Id like to see Denorfia get the job from day one and see how he does playing fulltime for 6-8 weeks. I dont see any other options and feel confident this will happen. This writer has no idea. Hamilton isnt a factor, he will be like Pena a few years ago and simply held on the roster in 2007 with hope hes able to produce in 2008 or 2009 and thats still a VERY longshot, but WK liked the odds. I hope hes right. Freel? Lets face it - hes a utility man at the MLB level and thats really not a bad thing.

We all know WK has the defense/pitching mindset and I have faith that this year Griffey will start in RF on Opening Day. Add that to the defensive upgrades in the middle infield and the Reds starters ERA's will start looking much much better this year. Im excited

westofyou
02-16-2007, 05:13 PM
Id even say he produced offensively last year with 27hrs/72rbi/ in 428 ab's . Compare that to everyones superhero Adam Dunn with 40/92/561.

Yippee counting stats... how about 99 runs vs 64 and 112 walks vs 39... yep THIRTY NINE!!!!

Avoid outs and you add an extra 1.5 runs every 27 outs like Super Adam did, don't avoid outs and you get folks talking RBI's and the ilk.

Cedric
02-16-2007, 05:16 PM
range factor= (Putouts + Assists) x 9 divided by Defensive Innings Played

That is like using a meat cleaver to operate on the brain compared to the much more precise scalpels represented by the modern gold standard defensive systems like, UZR, Chris Dial's ZR, PMR, Range etc that use play by play data and quadrant-based analysis.

Those are junk.

M2
02-16-2007, 05:17 PM
If this was all about pedigree why would Freel be contending for one of the spots.

Because after 2,700 ABs in the minors Freel finally got a chance in the majors, due to injury, in his late 20s, so now he's a "proven veteran." Denorfia profiles as a better player than Freel is yet somehow the lesson the franchise could have learned from Freel isn't being applied (leading this fan to think that no lesson was learned).


Don't get me wrong, I do want to see Denorfia get his chance but somewhere along the line he's not doing something the front office wants him to do.

Except we all know what he's doing. He's beaten up AAA pretty well two years in a row. He was named the best defensive OF in the IL last year. He's done all right during his cup of coffee stints in the majors too. So, while I agree there is something up, it's not with Denorfia.


I think your line of reasoning that says guys with pedigrees get more opportunities applies to a greater degree at the lower minor league levels and when a player is newer to the league.

No, I'm talking about more chances period. Why does Matt Harrington keep finding teams willing to give him a try when he's a bad pitcher in the indy leagues? The Cardinals hung onto Rick Ankiel forever hoping for a rebound. Ruben Rivera and Karim Garcia made careers out of unrealized potential. Ben Davis, Brian Hunter, Travis Lee, Matt White, Carlos Pena, Pablo Ozuna. Just watch Wilson Betemit and Corey Patterson bounce around the next few years as teams try to see if there's lightning in those bottles. Note the rather sizable number of folks who, despite all evidence to the contrary, think Josh Hamilton possesses magical baseball abilities raring to be tapped.

Once you get the Good Housekeeping seal of baseball approval teams will give you every chance to blow it. If a "prospect" played the way Denorfia has the past two years, he'd have long ago been given the CF job.


Putting an "investement" on the field instead of the most talented player isn't economically smart.

And yet it happens all the time. Remember that when Eric Milton's serving up fat pitches this season.

realistic
02-16-2007, 05:19 PM
Yippee counting stats... how about 99 runs vs 64 and 112 walks vs 39... yep THIRTY NINE!!!!

Avoid outs and you add an extra 1.5 runs every 27 outs like Super Adam did, don't avoid outs and you get folks talking RBI's and the ilk.

Well the runs per at bat are pretty close actually. Walks? I guess we could bring up strikouts too then. Im not going to argue this. Dunn is untouchable here on redszone we all know, his stuff dont stink.

No more responses from me on this subject, I said what I believe. Im sorry i took the Dunns name in vain.

westofyou
02-16-2007, 05:22 PM
Well the runs per at bat are pretty close actually. Walks? I guess we could bring up strikouts too then. Im not going to argue this. Dunn is untouchable here on redszone we all know, his stuff dont stink.

No more responses from me on this subject, I said what I believe. Im sorry i took the Dunns name in vain.

Seriously, that's it?

64.7 of the time Dunn came up he made an out, Junior 71.1... that's how I see it.

If you think what you think then type it, if you want to be a martyr then that's your business.

M2
02-16-2007, 05:24 PM
I just don't think he has the talent to hit at this level for an entire season.

Based on what? He's hit all the way up the minors. He's hit in the majors (though not for power). He's got a quick, compact swing. He's got a good eye at the plate. He doesn't whiff a lot.

What's Denorfia not doing that leads you to this conclusion?

BRM
02-16-2007, 05:43 PM
I wonder if folks are hung up on those 40 at-bats at the end of July and August where Denorfia struggled pretty bad. He did look lost during that short stretch. Of course he followed it up with a superb September.

durl
02-16-2007, 05:45 PM
Have any other teams expressed an interest in Denorfia? Surely the MLB scouts have seen the kid play in Louisville...especially when they look at his numbers.

Honestly, I don't know what to think of Denorfia. I always like to see AAA guys do well when they get called up. And not that it's the key determining factor of his value, but if he's got tons of potential I would think that there are teams out there that would be interested in picking him up. Someone will have to let me know if the Reds have declined offers for him. If other teams have not been after him, do all the scouts figure him to not be an impact player at the major league level?

Red Leader
02-16-2007, 06:10 PM
Have any other teams expressed an interest in Denorfia? Surely the MLB scouts have seen the kid play in Louisville...especially when they look at his numbers.

Honestly, I don't know what to think of Denorfia. I always like to see AAA guys do well when they get called up. And not that it's the key determining factor of his value, but if he's got tons of potential I would think that there are teams out there that would be interested in picking him up. Someone will have to let me know if the Reds have declined offers for him. If other teams have not been after him, do all the scouts figure him to not be an impact player at the major league level?

I know Florida had interest in him as their CF. Don't know if they made an offer for him or not. The Rotoworld.com article I read on it said that if Florida was going to trade for a CF they'd want a young, high ceiling CF in return. Apparently, he fit enough of that description that they at least had interest in him. Rotoworld.com thought Rocco Baldelli was the prime example for what they were looking for. If I were the Reds and I knew I wasn't going to play Denorfia in CF this year, I'd be listening to their offers. They have some pretty good prospects.

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 06:19 PM
I wonder if folks are hung up on those 40 at-bats at the end of July and August where Denorfia struggled pretty bad. He did look lost during that short stretch. Of course he followed it up with a superb September.

It's a combination of everything M2's stated in regard to Denorfia's pedigree plus Denorfia's specific plus plus skill sets. If you labeled both Denorfia and Josh Hamilton as prospects, then asked people to identify who they would rather have as a prospect, there's people out there who will answer Josh Hamilton. Lots of them, in fact.

Denorfia's skill set and positive attributes are the types of attributes that baseball men and most fans just don't know how to appropriately evaluate, or in other words, those attributes are types that are greatly undervalued by baseball men and many fans as a whole.

He plays great defense at a premier position and has all the tools a great defensive outfielder needs. He takes walks and has an outstanding batting eye. He also puts up solid on-base percentages, especially relative to other players at his position. Those are the types of attributes that saves runs by the bundle defensively while also creating a decent chunk of runs offensively. But because they're undervalued, people don't realize any of it.

You package together a great defender at a premium defensive position, a great eye, a .350+ on-base percentage, and a league minimum salary, and you've got yourself one hell of a baseball asset. That's the type of asset the Reds need more of, but instead all this team wants to do is crap on the one they've already got.

M2
02-16-2007, 06:44 PM
I wonder if folks are hung up on those 40 at-bats at the end of July and August where Denorfia struggled pretty bad. He did look lost during that short stretch. Of course he followed it up with a superb September.

Hard to find someone who wouldn't struggle when only given 40 ABs in 28 games. It was the equivalent of encasing him in ice.

Here's an interesting stat though:

Reds 2006 record in games where Denorfia got at least 3 PAs - 13-11

The team also allowed only 3.71 runs per game in those contests. It really isn't enough of a sample size to use as proof of anything, but I will say this -- the Reds weren't hurt by Denorfia when he started last season and the team played a better brand of run preventing baseball when he was out there.

reds44
02-16-2007, 06:49 PM
Based on what? He's hit all the way up the minors. He's hit in the majors (though not for power). He's got a quick, compact swing. He's got a good eye at the plate. He doesn't whiff a lot.

What's Denorfia not doing that leads you to this conclusion?
He's hit in the majors? The month stretch in September last year proves he can hit in the majors?

Tom Servo
02-16-2007, 06:51 PM
He's hit in the majors? The month stretch in September last year proves he can hit in the majors?
The three week stretch in July proves he can't?

reds44
02-16-2007, 06:52 PM
The three week stretch in July proves he can't?
Did I say that?

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 06:54 PM
Hard to find someone who wouldn't struggle when only given 40 ABs in 28 games. It was the equivalent of encasing him in ice.

Here's an interesting stat though:

Reds 2006 record in games where Denorfia got at least 3 PAs - 13-11

The team also allowed only 3.71 runs per game in those contests. It really isn't enough of a sample size to use as proof of anything, but I will say this -- the Reds weren't hurt by Denorfia when he started last season and the team played a better brand of run preventing baseball when he was out there.

Yup.

I still have all my gamelogs from last season when tracking Griffey's defense. It was pretty easy to sort out Denorfia's starts. Here's what we had ...


Reds Overall Deno Starts

DIPS ERA 4.53 4.03
ERA 4.53 3.47
2B/9 2.02 1.72
DER .690 .714
BABIP .310 .294

lollipopcurve
02-16-2007, 06:55 PM
You package together a great defender at a premium defensive position, a great eye, a .350+ on-base percentage, and a league minimum salary, and you've got yourself one hell of a baseball asset. That's the type of asset the Reds need more of, but instead all this team wants to do is crap on the one they've already got.

I certainly am convinced Denorfia is a valuable asset at the moment. But saying the Reds are crapping on him is, like, hysteria. So they don't proclaim him the starting CF in the offseason -- so what? Do you know that they don't intend to have Deno in CF as soon as they feel they've worked out the personnel issues -- like smoothing it out with Griffey, perhaps trading Freel, or at least letting him know his role face to face., etc.? Seems to me it makes the most sense to get to ST and work things out with the principals involved, as they now clearly are doing with Griffey -- as opposed to setting your lineup through the media in the offseason. It's a people business, not public relations. The fact is, if they did go about shifting the job descriptions of some of their key employees through the media, that's when they'd really be c******g on people. If folks give this a little time, the true intentions of the FO will reveal themselves. I would not be at all surprised to see an outfielder traded in the next 6 weeks.

reds44
02-16-2007, 07:00 PM
Yup.

I still have all my gamelogs from last season when tracking Griffey's defense. It was pretty easy to sort out Denorfia's starts. Here's what we had ...


Reds Overall Deno Starts

DIPS ERA 4.53 4.03
ERA 4.53 3.47
2B/9 2.02 1.72
DER .690 .714
BABIP .310 .294

Nobody is arguing (or at least I'm not) that Denorfia shouldn't be playing CF over Griffey next year. If the roster stays as is, I really don't have much of a problem with Freel starting in CF and Denorfia seeing a good amount of time there to keep Freel rested.

This entire argument started because people were ripping on Rosenthal because he doesn't see the Denorfia/Freel combo in CF as a sexy pick to replace Griffey in CF. Reading Narron's comments, Denorfia may not even make the team out of Spring Training.

I'd be curious to see the Reds offense numbers with Denorfia in CF.

Redhook
02-16-2007, 07:02 PM
I think Junior has enough integrity not to pull a Gary Sheffield / Derek Bell / Bobby Bonilla and institute Operation Shutdown.

That right there is funny.

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 07:05 PM
I certainly am convinced Denorfia is a valuable asset at the moment. But saying the Reds are crapping on him is, like, hysteria. So they don't proclaim him the starting CF in the offseason -- so what? Do you know that they don't intend to have Deno in CF as soon as they feel they've worked out the personnel issues -- like smoothing it out with Griffey, perhaps trading Freel, or at least letting him know his role face to face., etc.? Seems to me it makes the most sense to get to ST and work things out with the principals involved, as they now clearly are doing with Griffey -- as opposed to setting your lineup through the media in the offseason. It's a people business, not public relations. The fact is, if they did go about shifting the job descriptions of some of their key employees through the media, that's when they'd really be c******g on people. If folks give this a little time, the true intentions of the FO will reveal themselves. I would not be at all surprised to see an outfielder traded in the next 6 weeks.

Hysteria? How about wanting to see this team make intelligent baseball decisions, and you know, actually start winning some games?

Look, there's no hysteria here; it's simply make right baseball decisions. Don't wait to start making right baseball decisions. Start making them now. This has nothing to do with the media, and I could care less what the media has to say about any of it. This franchise needs to figure out what the right baseball decisions are, and they need to start making those right baseball decisions immediately.

Chris Denorfia should have been in center field last season. Ken Griffey, Jr. was already the worst defensive center fielder in all of baseball in 2005. I don't care if there was a new regime in there or not. If there's a problem that could have been fixed immediately, it should have been fixed. Imagine how nice it would have been to save a few more runs defensively in 2006. Who knows, maybe the Cincinnati Reds win a few more games and change the face of the NL Central Division championship.

As currently constructed, the 2007 Cincinnati Reds can win 85 games and possibly make a push to win the NL Central division. But the only way that's going to happen is for them to manage their current internal pieces properly.

Will any of that happen? I'll believe it when I see it.

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 07:06 PM
I'd be curious to see the Reds offense numbers with Denorfia in CF.

5/4/2006
7/13/2006
7/14/2006
7/15/2006
7/18/2006
7/20/2006
7/29/2006
8/4/2006
8/5/2006
8/6/2006
9/3/2006
9/6/2006
9/10/2006
9/18/2006
9/19/2006
9/20/2006
9/22/2006
9/24/2006
9/25/2006
9/26/2006
9/27/2006
9/28/2006
9/29/2006
9/30/2006
10/1/2006

Those are the games Denorfia started. Feel free to look it up (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/VCIN02006.htm).

reds44
02-16-2007, 07:20 PM
5/4/2006
7/13/2006
7/14/2006
7/15/2006
7/18/2006
7/20/2006
7/29/2006
8/4/2006
8/5/2006
8/6/2006
9/3/2006
9/6/2006
9/10/2006
9/18/2006
9/19/2006
9/20/2006
9/22/2006
9/24/2006
9/25/2006
9/26/2006
9/27/2006
9/28/2006
9/29/2006
9/30/2006
10/1/2006

Those are the games Denorfia started. Feel free to look it up (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/VCIN02006.htm).
87 runs
25 games
3.48 runs per game

The Reds scored 749 runs in 162 games.


749-87= 662
162-25= 137

Reds scored 4.8 runs without Denorfia in the lineup, and 3.48 with him.

Patrick Bateman
02-16-2007, 07:33 PM
87 runs
25 games
3.48 runs per game

The Reds scored 749 runs in 162 games.


749-87= 662
162-25= 137

Reds scored 4.8 runs without Denorfia in the lineup, and 3.48 with him.

Not that you have suggested that this is all based on Denorfia, but remember when he was getting most of his at-bats, Griffey was out of the line-up (replaced with some guys like Hollandsworth and Hopper), Kearns and Loepz were gone, and Ross, Dunn and Hatteberg were struggling.

This runs per game stat for Denorfia has far too many holes in it to consider it useful in any way.

Cyclone792
02-16-2007, 07:36 PM
87 runs
25 games
3.48 runs per game

The Reds scored 749 runs in 162 games.


749-87= 662
162-25= 137

Reds scored 4.8 runs without Denorfia in the lineup, and 3.48 with him.

I counted 3.72 runs per game so you might want to double-check your math. :D

As it is, that doesn't tell us a whole heck of a lot anyway as offense can be isolated. Denorfia put up a 4.88 RC/27 last season, and for his career he sits at 5.11. I'd have no problem with that type of offensive production from a superb defensive outfielder, and chances are good he could perform even better than that offensively.

jojo
02-16-2007, 07:45 PM
Those are junk.

Yes, I agree. Range factor is absolute junk.

M2
02-16-2007, 07:57 PM
He's hit in the majors? The month stretch in September last year proves he can hit in the majors?

It doesn't "prove" anything, but a .278/.358/.368 statline in 144 career MLB ABs does indicate he's worth giving a much longer look. That's a better average and OB than Jr.'s posted in two of the last three seasons.

No one's claiming Deno will be a power hitter, but he should be able to pull that up into the .400s to complement the other things he does well.

reds44
02-16-2007, 08:13 PM
Not that you have suggested that this is all based on Denorfia, but remember when he was getting most of his at-bats, Griffey was out of the line-up (replaced with some guys like Hollandsworth and Hopper), Kearns and Loepz were gone, and Ross, Dunn and Hatteberg were struggling.

This runs per game stat for Denorfia has far too many holes in it to consider it useful in any way.
True and your right I wasn't, but it works the same way for defense. When he was playing defense, normally Griffey wasn't in CF, Lopez wasn't at SS, and that loaf Kearns wasn't in RF.

Patrick Bateman
02-16-2007, 08:44 PM
True and your right I wasn't, but it works the same way for defense. When he was playing defense, normally Griffey wasn't in CF, Lopez wasn't at SS, and that loaf Kearns wasn't in RF.

Well Lopez's replacement wasn't any better than Lopez was fielding wise, and Kearns is actually a pretty good fielding right fileder.

There are of course many more factors, but Denorfia will definitely help the fileding in the OF, and based on his current alternatives, he will even probably help the offense.

Highlifeman21
02-16-2007, 10:12 PM
Yup.

I still have all my gamelogs from last season when tracking Griffey's defense. It was pretty easy to sort out Denorfia's starts. Here's what we had ...


Reds Overall Deno Starts

DIPS ERA 4.53 4.03
ERA 4.53 3.47
2B/9 2.02 1.72
DER .690 .714
BABIP .310 .294


Stop bringing logic and stats to back up your reasoning to this argument....

The writing is on the wall. It's a shame Jerry Narron doesn't have the stones to hand the keys to the starting CF job to Denorfia. He'll wait til the combination of Freel and Griffey wreck it, and then give it to Denorfia.

jojo
02-16-2007, 10:17 PM
Stop bringing logic and stats to back up your reasoning to this argument....

The writing is on the wall. It's a shame Jerry Narron doesn't have the stones to hand the keys to the starting CF job to Denorfia. He'll wait til the combination of Freel and Griffey wreck it, and then give it to Denorfia.

If Narron had stones, Griffey would be at firstbase.

Highlifeman21
02-16-2007, 10:18 PM
If Narron had stones, Griffey would be at firstbase.

Or Dunn.

lollipopcurve
02-16-2007, 10:21 PM
Look, there's no hysteria here; it's simply make right baseball decisions. Don't wait to start making right baseball decisions. Start making them now. This has nothing to do with the media, and I could care less what the media has to say about any of it. This franchise needs to figure out what the right baseball decisions are, and they need to start making those right baseball decisions immediately.

So, what exactly, specifically, do you need to happen in order to be placated, like tonight?

reds44
02-16-2007, 11:10 PM
Stop bringing logic and stats to back up your reasoning to this argument....

The writing is on the wall. It's a shame Jerry Narron doesn't have the stones to hand the keys to the starting CF job to Denorfia. He'll wait til the combination of Freel and Griffey wreck it, and then give it to Denorfia.
How is it logic? What about the fact the we averaged over a run less with Denorfia in the lineup then without him. Is that not logic?

Patrick Bateman
02-16-2007, 11:13 PM
How is it logic? What about the fact the we averaged over a run less with Denorfia in the lineup then without him. Is that not logic?

Both cases certainly have holes, but I would argue that the offensive case is more faulty than the defensive one. There were more important differences in regards to the offense. When Denorfia played instead of Griffey, there wasn't really any improved areas of defense besides CF during that span. The same cannot be said for the offensive side of the ball.

reds44
02-16-2007, 11:18 PM
Both cases certainly have holes, but I would argue that the offensive case is more faulty than the defensive one. There were more important differences in regards to the offense. When Denorfia played instead of Griffey, there wasn't really any improved areas of defense besides CF during that span. The same cannot be said for the offensive side of the ball.
Of course.

Cyclone792
02-17-2007, 01:55 AM
So, what exactly, specifically, do you need to happen in order to be placated, like tonight?

I don't know about you, but I went out tonight and had a damn nice time, even in frigid weather.

Anyhow, I do find it interesting that at the beginning of last season, people always said that the regime couldn't make a center field change immediately. The regime was new, and a change couldn't be expected to be made promptly. That was the excuse then. Sure, that's fine. It was going to cost the team runs and wins in 2006, but hey, who needs those these days?

Then in the middle of the season, when it was once again apparent that Ken Griffey, Jr. needs to be moved out of center field, people always said the regime couldn't make a center field change during the middle of the season. Wait until the offseason, then the change can be made. That was the excuse then. Sure, that's fine. It was costing the team runs and wins in 2006, but hey, who needs those these days?

Sure, you're right that the front office will reveal its true intentions going forward in 2007 in short time. Wayne Krivsky is publicly commenting that it's Narron's decision, not his. Is that true or not? I don't know, nor do I care. Jerry Narron is publicly commenting little feelers on the situation, you know, the mantra of "it's been discussed, but we'll see" type of lines. Is that true or not? Once again, I don't know, nor do I care.

So what do I want to see? I want to see the right decision made before another regular season game is official. No more excuses. No more dancing around the issue. Spring training is knocking on the door, and we're sure as heck going to find out what's going to happen very soon.

The Reds will either make the right decision, or they once again won't. And they'll either want to maximize their win potential, or they once again won't. Too bad we've seen far too much of the latter in recent years.

Newman4
02-17-2007, 02:08 AM
After reading many posts, I can ascertain that the sample size is not large enough to prove or disprove Denofria's value as a ML CF. However, my problem is with his ceiling. What's the absolute best that can be hoped for? I just don't see the power numbers to make him a ML regular. Plus, he's not going to steal 50+ bases either. Forgive me, but I don't see the hub bub over Deno.

jojo
02-17-2007, 02:23 AM
After reading many posts, I can ascertain that the sample size is not large enough to prove or disprove Denofria's value as a ML CF. However, my problem is with his ceiling. What's the absolute best that can be hoped for? I just don't see the power numbers to make him a ML regular. Plus, he's not going to steal 50+ bases either. Forgive me, but I don't see the hub bub over Deno.

Consider this: Centerfield is a premium defensive position meaning the available pool of players who can play it well is one of the smallest in baseball. Few doubt Deno could play league average defense and it's likely he'll be an above average defensive center fielder. Since center field is a premium defensive position, you can tolerate less production from the position compared to say a corner outfield position where the available talent pool is much larger since corner positions are relatively easier to play. The mlb average for center fielders in '06 was: .267/.332/.425. Denofia is projected to do something like .292/.357/.441 in '07. So he's likely to be an above average player at a premium position while being paid the league minimum. That's the definition of hub bub IMHO.

forfreelin04
02-17-2007, 02:38 AM
I think the stats for DenO are too small to tell. I think it all comes down to what you "believe" will happen. How he projects is irrelevant considering the small sample size of MLB at bats. I mean Brandon Larson was a great Minor League Player and Willie Greene was too.

All I know last year was he had a strong finish in September with limited at bats. However, in July, when it was his to make or break (supposedly) he went Busch League with his at bats and started topping off on nearly every pitch. How many times did he ground out to short? It took another long benching to get him to make the necessary adjustments.

If he has a strong spring, I would gladly love to see him in center. But, I just don't think he will. It will be interesting to see the pedigree (hamilton) versus the "scrappiness."

reds44
02-17-2007, 02:50 AM
Consider this: Centerfield is a premium defensive position meaning the available pool of players who can play it well is one of the smallest in baseball. Few doubt Deno could play league average defense and it's likely he'll be an above average defensive center fielder. Since center field is a premium defensive position, you can tolerate less production from the position compared to say a corner outfield position where the available talent pool is much larger since corner positions are relatively easier to play. The mlb average for center fielders in '06 was: .267/.332/.425. Denofia is projected to do something like .292/.357/.441 in '07. So he's likely to be an above average player at a premium position while being paid the league minimum. That's the definition of hub bub IMHO.
Who is projecting him to do this? I just don't see it, at all. Did any project Edwin to put up the numbers he did last year? Doubt it. I just don't put too much into projections.

He doesn't hit for enough power, and doesn't have the great speed to make up for it. If he can have an OBP north of .350 he'll be useful, I don't know if he will be able to hit enough to do it.

Cyclone792
02-17-2007, 03:22 AM
He doesn't hit for enough power, and doesn't have the great speed to make up for it. If he can have an OBP north of .350 he'll be useful, I don't know if he will be able to hit enough to do it.

You're still not understanding his offensive value relative to his position. It's been stated many times, but I'm going to repeat this once again ...

2005 MLB Average CFer batting line: .272/.334/.423
2006 MLB Average CFer batting line: .269/.335/.427

For the last two seasons, the average major league center fielder has put up an OPS in the .760 range. If Chris Denorfia can put up an OPS in the .760 range, he'll be at least an average offensive center fielder**. Combine that with his excellent defense, and he becomes an overall above average to good center fielder with the total package.

Now, do you want to know how valuable "being average" is? Every season teams miss the playoffs because they couldn't find "average" production in one or more positions on the field. Instead of having "average" production, they play bad players. They play players who are below average, or replacement level, or *gasp* below replacement level. Those teams lose run value because of their inability to find average players. They lose wins because they just can't find average players and are forced to play bad players.

Here, think of it another way: if you could magically trade in Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton for two "average" starting pitchers to throw into the 3rd and 4th rotation slots, would you do it? Of course you would. You'd be foolish not swap Lohse and Milton for two starting pitchers that could put up a 4.50 ERA in both those slots. I guarantee you every Reds fan in America would feel a heckuva lot better about the pitching staff - and the team as a whole - if we had two "average" starting pitchers with 4.50 ERAs in the spots Lohse and Milton will be used in. I know I'd feel much better about the pitching staff and team if that was the case.

Instead, we have Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton. We have one guy who is considered below average and another guy who is considered bad in those slots. They're not average pitchers. They're worse than average pitchers. They'll allow more runs than average pitchers. We'll lose more games from having them in the rotation than we would if we had average pitchers in those slots.

Being "average" has value. Lots of value. So much value that teams pay very average players millions of dollars each season. And, so much value that teams like the Cincinnati Reds can't find average players at crucial positions, such as starting pitching.

** I wanted to toss in a few things at the end about OPS, because while important, I didn't want it to impede the main point that average players have immense value.

Anyway, the OBP portion of OPS is worth more than the SLG portion. OPS is a quick'n easy tool for determining offensive production, but it's more accurate with a simple adjustment in the weight of OBP vs. SLG. Instead of leaving OBP and SLG equal, multiply a player's OBP by 1.7, and you'll have an even more accurate statistical viewpoint of that player's offensive worth.

Why is all the above important? Because Chris Denorfia's strength in on-base percentage is worth more than raw OPS will give him credit for. If Chris Denorfia puts up a .760 OPS with a batting line that includes a .350 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage, then he'll be a greater offensive force than a player who puts up a .330 on-base percentage with a .430 slugging percentage.

So when you say Denorfia doesn't hit for enough power, I say who cares? So long as he's putting up the on-base percentage he's certainly capable of putting up, such as north of .350, then he has justifiable offensive value for a center fielder. He becomes "average" for a center fielder offensively. He becomes a player that's worth millions of dollars to any given MLB team, and he becomes a player that other MLB teams wish they had.

If you have the choice between OBP and SLG, pick OBP every time.

Caveat Emperor
02-17-2007, 03:25 AM
Who is projecting him to do this? I just don't see it, at all. Did any project Edwin to put up the numbers he did last year? Doubt it. I just don't put too much into projections.

Actually, WOY hit it almost dead-on around this time a year ago:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=901433&postcount=22

WOY: .335 ob% .475 slg% .280 BA, 50 EBH, 50 walks, 17 errors.
EE: .359 ob% .473 slg% .276 BA, 49 EBH, 41 walks, 25 errors.

reds44
02-17-2007, 04:13 AM
You're still not understanding his offensive value relative to his position. It's been stated many times, but I'm going to repeat this once again ...

2005 MLB Average CFer batting line: .272/.334/.423
2006 MLB Average CFer batting line: .269/.335/.427

For the last two seasons, the average major league center fielder has put up an OPS in the .760 range. If Chris Denorfia can put up an OPS in the .760 range, he'll be at least an average offensive center fielder**. Combine that with his excellent defense, and he becomes an overall above average to good center fielder with the total package.

Now, do you want to know how valuable "being average" is? Every season teams miss the playoffs because they couldn't find "average" production in one or more positions on the field. Instead of having "average" production, they play bad players. They play players who are below average, or replacement level, or *gasp* below replacement level. Those teams lose run value because of their inability to find average players. They lose wins because they just can't find average players and are forced to play bad players.

Here, think of it another way: if you could magically trade in Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton for two "average" starting pitchers to throw into the 3rd and 4th rotation slots, would you do it? Of course you would. You'd be foolish not swap Lohse and Milton for two starting pitchers that could put up a 4.50 ERA in both those slots. I guarantee you every Reds fan in America would feel a heckuva lot better about the pitching staff - and the team as a whole - if we had two "average" starting pitchers with 4.50 ERAs in the spots Lohse and Milton will be used in. I know I'd feel much better about the pitching staff and team if that was the case.

Instead, we have Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton. We have one guy who is considered below average and another guy who is considered bad in those slots. They're not average pitchers. They're worse than average pitchers. They'll allow more runs than average pitchers. We'll lose more games from having them in the rotation than we would if we had average pitchers in those slots.

Being "average" has value. Lots of value. So much value that teams pay very average players millions of dollars each season. And, so much value that teams like the Cincinnati Reds can't find average players at crucial positions, such as starting pitching.

** I wanted to toss in a few things at the end about OPS, because while important, I didn't want it to impede the main point that average players have immense value.

Anyway, the OBP portion of OPS is worth more than the SLG portion. OPS is a quick'n easy tool for determining offensive production, but it's more accurate with a simple adjustment in the weight of OBP vs. SLG. Instead of leaving OBP and SLG equal, multiply a player's OBP by 1.7, and you'll have an even more accurate statistical viewpoint of that player's offensive worth.

Why is all the above important? Because Chris Denorfia's strength in on-base percentage is worth more than raw OPS will give him credit for. If Chris Denorfia puts up a .760 OPS with a batting line that includes a .350 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage, then he'll be a greater offensive force than a player who puts up a .330 on-base percentage with a .430 slugging percentage.

So when you say Denorfia doesn't hit for enough power, I say who cares? So long as he's putting up the on-base percentage he's certainly capable of putting up, such as north of .350, then he has justifiable offensive value for a center fielder. He becomes "average" for a center fielder offensively. He becomes a player that's worth millions of dollars to any given MLB team, and he becomes a player that other MLB teams wish they had.

If you have the choice between OBP and SLG, pick OBP every time.
Yes, IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF, he can be average he has value. I don't think he is going to hit enough to be "average" though. That is where we disagree. When I say power, I mean making people respect your power enough where they don't play the outfield so shallow that it takes away bloop hits.

mth123
02-17-2007, 05:04 AM
Yes, IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF, he can be average he has value. I don't think he is going to hit enough to be "average" though. That is where we disagree. When I say power, I mean making people respect your power enough where they don't play the outfield so shallow that it takes away bloop hits.

I was saying the same things once upon a time, but I listened to guys like Cyclone, RedManRick and now JoJo (and lots of others). I looked at the numbers and the situation myself and saw the logic of their point. Lets forget projections for a minute and look at the situation.

The alternatives to Deno are leaving Jr in CF, using Freel or acquiring some one.

Lets examine the decision:

1. Leaving JR in CF is the worst possible solution. The Reds as currently situated, are going to use Freel or Deno anyway in RF. A simple switch so dramatically improves the defense that its a no brainer. Griffey's bat will still be in the line-up so the offense is not really a consideration for this portion of the decision. The only possible way that offense comes into play would be if the Reds acquire a corner OF who could be a big offensive force. That would leave Griffey in CF, cost a lot in trade, probably cost a lot in Salary, and still leave the Reds with the worst OF defense in baseball. The Reds would be able to claim supremacy in a couple areas though. 1.) Allowing bloop singles that fall in for hits and 2.) allowing balls that split the defenders and find the gaps in the OF. If the Reds were to acquire such a player, the best move would be to put Griffey at 1B and still leave CF for another option.

2. With Griffey in RF (or less likely 1B), that leaves CF for Deno or Freel. Using your argument that Deno doesn't have enough power, would automatically eliminate Freel from any consideration since Deno has shown more power potential throughout his minor league career than Freel ever has. Freel has proven through his major league at bats that no real power exists there and a slugging % topping out at .400 is about the best we can hope for. (I'm thinking the CF is the lead-off guy so the power argument is less important IMO, but it seems to be a "reason" that has been brought-up for avoiding Deno so I'm using it here.)

3. That means an acquisition is needed. The Reds have precious little of the two main resources required to acquire some one (talent and money) and precious little money to pay said some one if that player is acquired. This Reds team has a number of holes. The Bullpen is a shambles, the rotation beyond Harang and Arroyo is uncertain at best and the 1B platoon looks to be worst in the league by far. Who do we trade for such a CF stud? How do we pay said stud? What good would it do given these other problems that this team has? At best you'll get some one else's question mark for what the Reds have to offer. Actually the Red's best trade bait is one of its own CF options. If a team had a desirable CF option, they would probably not be interested in the Red's best trade option. That leaves creating a hole elsewhere by trading Coffey, Dunn, EE or Phillips, or peddling junk like Cormier or Lohse neither of whom will fetch a player of Deno or Freel's caliber, or trading a Votto, Bailey or another sought after minor leaguer. If I were the Reds GM I would not trade young cheap players who seem likely to fit in within a year at areas of pressing need (like Votto at 1B or Bailey in the rotation) unless the deal fills those needs in return.


It seems when you have a young cheap option that we know can play the position defensively and has shown, power, patience and ability to get on base as a minor leaguer, you'd plug him in where you have the need and direct your resources and efforts toward this team's other major problems where no such young cheap option exists. If that player crashes and burns you will have found out. If he plays league average, there is one less hole to fill as the team moves toward legit contention in 2009 or so.

The anti-Deno faction is, IMO, a result of so many years of the Reds having no real minor league talent to come up and contribute. I'm guessing if the Red's acquired a guy with Deno's background and minor league numbers from another organization it would be hailed on this board as a shrewd acquisition that was acquired on the cheap and adds a lot of value. Since he's homegrown all we see are his flaws.

Always Red
02-17-2007, 07:22 AM
Many of the posters (not all, though) who do not think Denorfia is up to the job, think that Ryan Freel is a better choice for the Reds in CF.

Now I love Farney; I mean who doesn't love a guy who will literally dive through an outfield wall to make a catch? Freel has shown, to me, over and over that his greatest asset is being able to play 3-4 times a week at a multitude of positions. And he doesn't play any of them exceedingly well, in fact, not even good enough to be a starter at those positions, IMHO. Plus, when he does play more than 7 games or so in a row, his bat simply goes to sleep. I'm not sure why this is? Maybe because he has the same mongrel pedigree that taints Denorfia, and when he finally gets in a position to start, and he plays without that edge, without that giant chip on his shoulder? who knows?

Freel is a supersub; that is his greatest asset in the game. He can provide an instant spark off the bench, and you can plug him in for a few innings in the OF, at 2B or even at 3B. But he's not an everyday CF, IMO. He got that chance last year and did not step up. He did make some incredible catches though!

Freel is the guy I would have traded this off season. To an American League contender, a team in need of a guy with Farney's particular talents, say the Yankees, Tigers or White Sox. I'd have tried to pry away some Tiger pitching of some sort or another for Freel. Maybe Krivsky tried that, and the deal wasn't there for him?

But frankly, trading Freel away would have been bad PR locally for this team. Ryan is widely considered one of the only Reds on the team who will give maximum effort, constantly. Plus, Marty loves the guy, which is a big deal in this town- many folks (not the folks here, of course ;) ) get their baseball opinions on things from Marty B. So, he stays, which is also fine with me. But I'd put Denorfia in CF, for all the reasons listed above, and keep Freel in the super-sub role, playing him 3-4 times a week. Then, in early June, if Denorfia is not up to the task, I'd put Freel in CF.

mth is right, Junior cannot be an option in CF. I'd go so far to say if Junior starts this season in CF, the Reds are simply writing this year off, from the get-go, and have no intention of trying to win. Junior simply cannot run well enough to play the position any longer. And we have no more assets to trade for anyone who would be better than Freel or Denorfia out there.

jojo
02-17-2007, 09:58 AM
I think the stats for DenO are too small to tell. I think it all comes down to what you "believe" will happen. How he projects is irrelevant considering the small sample size of MLB at bats

That would be true if projection tools like Pecota didn't also consider minor league data when building comparables. Basically his projections aren't biased by a small number of major league bats in Deno's case.


mean Brandon Larson was a great Minor League Player and Willie Greene was too.

Fortunately neither player is on Deno's list of comparables. :cool:


All I know last year was he had a strong finish in September with limited at bats. However, in July, when it was his to make or break (supposedly) he went Busch League with his at bats and started topping off on nearly every pitch. How many times did he ground out to short? It took another long benching to get him to make the necessary adjustments.

He got all of 25 at bats in 10 games during July. Basically he got less than 20 at bats following the trade to make it or break it before he was benched and then sent down. WOW. Jackie Robinson would've never stuck under Narron.


If he has a strong spring, I would gladly love to see him in center. But, I just don't think he will. It will be interesting to see the pedigree (hamilton) versus the "scrappiness."

God that doesnt interest me at all. There is nothing scrappy about a center fielder that can play above average defense with an OPS of .800. That's not scrappy-its desirable. I'm not suggesting Deno is a long term answer. He's probably at his peak right now. His defense won't improve and he's probably never going to develop more than doubles power. Basically all he's going to do is get older. That being said, he projects to easily be the Reds best option in center field THIS YEAR.

jojo
02-17-2007, 10:15 AM
Yes, IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF, he can be average he has value. I don't think he is going to hit enough to be "average" though. That is where we disagree. When I say power, I mean making people respect your power enough where they don't play the outfield so shallow that it takes away bloop hits.


I just don't get where this view of his potential comes from....

Is it these past performances:

minor league totals: .296/.377/.441

his AAA totals:
'05: .310/.391/.505
'06: .349/.409/.484

his 144 mlb at bats: .278/.358/.382?


If Deno plays above average defense in center field while matching the production suggested by the average of the 5 gold standard projection tools, he'll easily be a more valuable player than the '06 version of Dunn (and he'd give '05 Dunn a challenge). Factor in his salary and the difference would be obscene. I can see Denorfia being a 3 win player in '07 if given the chance.

jojo
02-17-2007, 10:24 AM
I was saying the same things once upon a time, but I listened to guys like Cyclone, RedManRick and now JoJo (and lots of others). I looked at the numbers and the situation myself and saw the logic of their point. Lets forget projections for a minute and look at the situation.

The alternatives to Deno are leaving Jr in CF, using Freel or acquiring some one.

Lets examine the decision:

1. Leaving JR in CF is the worst possible solution. The Reds as currently situated, are going to use Freel or Deno anyway in RF. A simple switch so dramatically improves the defense that its a no brainer. Griffey's bat will still be in the line-up so the offense is not really a consideration for this portion of the decision. The only possible way that offense comes into play would be if the Reds acquire a corner OF who could be a big offensive force. That would leave Griffey in CF, cost a lot in trade, probably cost a lot in Salary, and still leave the Reds with the worst OF defense in baseball. The Reds would be able to claim supremacy in a couple areas though. 1.) Allowing bloop singles that fall in for hits and 2.) allowing balls that split the defenders and find the gaps in the OF. If the Reds were to acquire such a player, the best move would be to put Griffey at 1B and still leave CF for another option.

2. With Griffey in RF (or less likely 1B), that leaves CF for Deno or Freel. Using your argument that Deno doesn't have enough power, would automatically eliminate Freel from any consideration since Deno has shown more power potential throughout his minor league career than Freel ever has. Freel has proven through his major league at bats that no real power exists there and a slugging % topping out at .400 is about the best we can hope for. (I'm thinking the CF is the lead-off guy so the power argument is less important IMO, but it seems to be a "reason" that has been brought-up for avoiding Deno so I'm using it here.)

3. That means an acquisition is needed. The Reds have precious little of the two main resources required to acquire some one (talent and money) and precious little money to pay said some one if that player is acquired. This Reds team has a number of holes. The Bullpen is a shambles, the rotation beyond Harang and Arroyo is uncertain at best and the 1B platoon looks to be worst in the league by far. Who do we trade for such a CF stud? How do we pay said stud? What good would it do given these other problems that this team has? At best you'll get some one else's question mark for what the Reds have to offer. Actually the Red's best trade bait is one of its own CF options. If a team had a desirable CF option, they would probably not be interested in the Red's best trade option. That leaves creating a hole elsewhere by trading Coffey, Dunn, EE or Phillips, or peddling junk like Cormier or Lohse neither of whom will fetch a player of Deno or Freel's caliber, or trading a Votto, Bailey or another sought after minor leaguer. If I were the Reds GM I would not trade young cheap players who seem likely to fit in within a year at areas of pressing need (like Votto at 1B or Bailey in the rotation) unless the deal fills those needs in return.


It seems when you have a young cheap option that we know can play the position defensively and has shown, power, patience and ability to get on base as a minor leaguer, you'd plug him in where you have the need and direct your resources and efforts toward this team's other major problems where no such young cheap option exists. If that player crashes and burns you will have found out. If he plays league average, there is one less hole to fill as the team moves toward legit contention in 2009 or so.

The anti-Deno faction is, IMO, a result of so many years of the Reds having no real minor league talent to come up and contribute. I'm guessing if the Red's acquired a guy with Deno's background and minor league numbers from another organization it would be hailed on this board as a shrewd acquisition that was acquired on the cheap and adds a lot of value. Since he's homegrown all we see are his flaws.


Yes, what mth said. :cool:

I'd only add this- I think chicks and alot of reds fans dig the longball and while they like to complain about really bad defense, they don't particularly value good defense.

lollipopcurve
02-17-2007, 10:28 AM
So what do I want to see? I want to see the right decision made before another regular season game is official. No more excuses. No more dancing around the issue. Spring training is knocking on the door, and we're sure as heck going to find out what's going to happen very soon.

Fair enough. At least you're giving them some time together to work it out.

People should be encouraged that they are talking to Griffey about the move. How long it takes to enact the move will be interesting to see. Ripken at SS, Piazza at catcher, Bernie Williams in center -- you see this kind of problem on other teams, too. Personally, I have absolutely no problem with the team trying to work it out WITH Griffey, not in spite of Griffey. The best possible outcome is to have him make the move and feel invested in it, as others have noted. He is still a very important asset, in more ways than one, and, in my opinion, they are right to take an approach that is not autocratic. Per today's Enquirer, Narron first made mention of the possibility at the beginning of the offseason, thus giving Griffey some time to live with the idea -- far preferable than to wait till ST and drop it on him. It's got way more going for it than, say, pointing to RF and saying to Griffey, "there you go."

I agree that another season with Griffey as the main man in CF would be painful and symptomatic of a team backing down from a prideful marquee player. But, events so far do not lead me to believe that will happen.

WVRedsFan
02-17-2007, 11:05 AM
This is obviously a tremendous discussion with a lot of good points both ways, but this seems to be an obsession on RedsZone. We've heard "move Junior" for nye on to two years now. When Narron decides to move him, Junior will move. I would bet my last dollar (and I'm about there these days) that on opening day, Junior will be in Center and Freel in Right.

Denorfia does have potential, but it's the kind of potential that includes .27-.290 BA (which we all have learned isn't important), OBP in the .370 range and OPS in the .700 range. The key ingredient, according to most (well, 70%) of folks here is that the defensive side of him is the thing that makes him our center fielder if and when Junior moves at Narron's request. So some odd reason, that doesn't give me goose bumps and the average fan agrees.

Having said that, good defense is good defense--a major part of the game and is sorely needed on this team. An outfield of Dunn, Denorfia and Freel (who I contend dives for balls mainly because he can't read where the ball is off the bad and gets a slow start) just gives me offensive nightmares. The only way to play our outfield is Dunn-Denorfia-Griffey.

That said, it'll be Dunn-Griffey-Freel. <sigh>

Redleg39
02-17-2007, 11:15 AM
This morning in the columbus dispatch, It was said that Narron had talked to Griffey about playing right field, giving Ryan Freel the majority of the reps in center

Highlifeman21
02-17-2007, 11:42 AM
How is it logic? What about the fact the we averaged over a run less with Denorfia in the lineup then without him. Is that not logic?

Cyclone showed how Denorfia's defensive abilities in CF are light years better than that of Freel or Griffey.

Denorfia's glove in CF makes up whatever gap you think might be created by his bat in CF.

I would love to see Denorfia and Freel both have 500 PA in 2007, and then everyone would see that Denorfia will put up much better production than Freel.

Once you factor in the glove aspect of the equation, Denorfia trumps Freel in every aspect.

jojo
02-17-2007, 12:30 PM
Cyclone showed how Denorfia's defensive abilities in CF are light years better than that of Freel or Griffey.

Denorfia's glove in CF makes up whatever gap you think might be created by his bat in CF.

I absolutely agree with everything that you posted. I would add this too-the gap between Griffey's bat and Denorfia's is probably not nearly as big as alot of fans might be assuming. Based upon an average of the 5 projection systems, Griffey is projected to have 70 RC in 415 AB. If Denorfia has the same number of at bats, he's projected to have 65 RC. So their bats aren't even projected to be a win different. Now considering their defense, it's not even an argument that the Reds wouldn't lose anything with Denorfia in center. Denorfia could be as much as a two win upgrade overall.

Handofdeath
02-17-2007, 12:50 PM
And does it really matter how old the guy is if he gets the job done?

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=8833

I'm interested to know if you feel that same way about some of the relief pitchers the Reds have?

CaiGuy
02-17-2007, 01:27 PM
I'm interested to know if you feel that same way about some of the relief pitchers the Reds have?

He is talking about a 26 year old, not a 40 year old.

Besides, most of the bullpen (regardless of age) won't be "getting it done."

Redhook
02-17-2007, 02:22 PM
I absolutely agree with everything that you posted. I would add this too-the gap between Griffey's bat and Denorfia's is probably not nearly as big as alot of fans might be assuming. Based upon an average of the 5 projection systems, Griffey is projected to have 70 RC in 415 AB. If Denorfia has the same number of at bats, he's projected to have 65 RC. So their bats aren't even projected to be a win different. Now considering their defense, it's not even an argument that the Reds wouldn't lose anything with Denorfia in center. Denorfia could be as much as a two win upgrade overall.

I want Deno starting in CF and Griffey in RF, with Freel subbing 4 days a week and more when he is hot.

That being said, I am not buying into the projection that Deno would come that close to Griffey in run production. I think he'll be ok, but he's not in the same ballpark as Griffey is, projections or not. Given the same number of at-bats, I believe Griffey would out produce Deno substantially. Plus, Griffey's bat in the lineup makes everyone else better. I don't think the same can be said of Deno.

I do hope they get a similar number of at-bats between, and it better be a big number. The bigger the better......550 each would be a real nice surprise. :)

Highlifeman21
02-17-2007, 02:38 PM
I absolutely agree with everything that you posted. I would add this too-the gap between Griffey's bat and Denorfia's is probably not nearly as big as alot of fans might be assuming. Based upon an average of the 5 projection systems, Griffey is projected to have 70 RC in 415 AB. If Denorfia has the same number of at bats, he's projected to have 65 RC. So their bats aren't even projected to be a win different. Now considering their defense, it's not even an argument that the Reds wouldn't lose anything with Denorfia in center. Denorfia could be as much as a two win upgrade overall.

I'm not concerned with the gap between Denorfia's bat and Griffey's bat, as I see Freel on the outside looking in. Apparently there seems to be some issue with the gap between Denorfia's bat and Freel's bat, but I actuallly expect them to put up similar numbers over a 500 PA sample size, with Denorfia probably have a .15-.25 lead in OBP, and Freel probably having a similar .15-.25 lead in SLG. I value superb defense and a higher OBP than a guy who gets bad jumps on the ball, takes horrible routes to the ball, and then once on base creates far too many outs by either CS or getting picked off.

Everyone here seems to be in agreement that Griffey is a dish best served in RF for 2007, but the vast disagreement is who gets the everyday CF job: Chris Denorfia or Ryan Freel.

Mark me down for Denorfia 8 days of the week. Freel's value to this team is very high as a super sub, but he has little to zero value as a starter. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's traded during ST.

jojo
02-17-2007, 03:47 PM
I'm not concerned with the gap between Denorfia's bat and Griffey's bat, as I see Freel on the outside looking in. Apparently there seems to be some issue with the gap between Denorfia's bat and Freel's bat, but I actuallly expect them to put up similar numbers over a 500 PA sample size, with Denorfia probably have a .15-.25 lead in OBP, and Freel probably having a similar .15-.25 lead in SLG. I value superb defense and a higher OBP than a guy who gets bad jumps on the ball, takes horrible routes to the ball, and then once on base creates far too many outs by either CS or getting picked off.

Everyone here seems to be in agreement that Griffey is a dish best served in RF for 2007, but the vast disagreement is who gets the everyday CF job: Chris Denorfia or Ryan Freel.

Mark me down for Denorfia 8 days of the week. Freel's value to this team is very high as a super sub, but he has little to zero value as a starter. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's traded during ST.

I also think the Freel is maximally productive off of the bench and filling a lot of roles. It's not the way I'd do it but probably the most likely scenario this season is going to be having the defensive innings split in center between Griffey, Freel and Denorfia.

I'd have Denorfia penciled in at center (without telling him) and that wouldn't change unless his spring gave a real reaso for concern. I would give Freel some defensive innings in center. Against lefties, I'd have Denorfia in center and Freel in right. If Griffey wanted to play against lefties, he'd be at first base. Ideally, Denorfia will get somewhere around 400-450 AB.

Concerning trading Freel, the beauty of having him is that the Reds outfield has real depth (which translates into depth on the bench). Also having Freel around allows a lot of wiggle room concerning the lineup. I know Narron drives a lot of people crazy with his constantly changing batting order, but some fluidity is a real plus-especially over a 162 game grind.

WMR
02-17-2007, 07:35 PM
Will Griffey's name again be etched in stone in the number three slot in the batting order? That's something else that needs to change this season.

Fifth is where he should be.

Razor Shines
02-17-2007, 07:42 PM
Will Griffey's name again be etched in stone in the number three slot in the batting order? That's something else that needs to change this season.

Fifth is where he should be.

To me I don't really care whether he's 3, 4, or 5 as long as Dunn is hitting in front of him and EE. Whether it's EE then Jr or Jr then EE.

Newman4
02-17-2007, 10:10 PM
Most of you are forgetting a huge difference in Freel and Denorfia......stolen bases. Anyone figuring that in your stat lines? The man love for Deno is unquestionable on this board.

Redhook
02-17-2007, 10:14 PM
To me I don't really care whether he's 3, 4, or 5 as long as Dunn is hitting in front of him and EE. Whether it's EE then Jr or Jr then EE.

Exactly. It needs to be Dunn, EE, JR, or Dunn, JR, EE preferbly the former. JR and EE are the two best RBI guys and Dunn is the best OB guy. It makes perfect sense for Dunn to bat 2nd or 3rd ahead of those two guys. Perfect sense means there's about a 25&#37; chance of it happening with Narron.

mth123
02-17-2007, 11:20 PM
Most of you are forgetting a huge difference in Freel and Denorfia......stolen bases. Anyone figuring that in your stat lines? The man love for Deno is unquestionable on this board.

Freel stole 37 bases in 2006. He was caught 11 times and picked-off 10 more. Making 21 outs while stealing 37 bases isn't adding to his value. His baserunning is a big negative. When your top offensive attribute is getting on base, giving that back to the opponent 21 times isn't helping. He'd have to steal 75 or 80 bases to make it worth that many outs.

I wish he'd never run. Heck, with his track record I wish he wouldn't even try to get a lead off of the base.

Cedric
02-17-2007, 11:28 PM
Freel stole 37 bases in 2006. He was caught 11 times and picked-off 10 more. Making 21 outs while stealing 37 bases isn't adding to his value. His baserunning is a big negative. When your top offensive attribute is getting on base, giving that back to the opponent 21 times isn't helping. He'd have to steal 75 or 80 bases to make it worth that many outs.

I wish he'd never run. Heck, with his track record I wish he wouldn't even try to get a lead off of the base.

That was one season. I agree his base running blunders last year were a major problem. But you aren't including other aspects of his speed that helps on the base path though. He's incredibly fast around the bases and picks up the ball much better than most of the team.

I wouldn't call his overall base running a "big negative".

mth123
02-17-2007, 11:46 PM
That was one season. I agree his base running blunders last year were a major problem. But you aren't including other aspects of his speed that helps on the base path though. He's incredibly fast around the bases and picks up the ball much better than most of the team.

I wouldn't call his overall base running a "big negative".

I agree that speed on the bases and in the field is an asset. I wish everyone was as fast as Freel. But Freel makes outs trying to stretch and being overly aggressive as well. He plays out of control and it somewhat negates (not completely or enough to make him "bad") the things he does well.

In this specific instance I was responding to a post that stated that Freel's steals add value and somehow give him a leg up. They very clearly don't with his marginal success rate (w/o including the pick-offs) and his high number of times picked-off. He's not alone. Many of the big time base stealers are in the same boat. Juan Pierre, Alphonso Soriano and Scott Podsednik are examples of guys who make too many outs for what their steals add. Brandon Phillips, on the other hand, was only caught twice and picked-off 3 times with 25 steals. In his case the steals are a weapon. Jimmy Rollins, Ichiro, and Carl Crawford are examples of guys who use their steals to add value with high success rates as well. Here's a chart of the 35 guys who stole more than 20 bases in 2006:




Rank NAME OBP SB CS PKOFF outs outs %
1 Jimmy Rollins 0.334 36 4 0 4 10.0%
2 Chris Duffy 0.317 26 1 2 3 10.3%
3 Ichiro Suzuki 0.370 45 2 5 7 13.5%
4 Coco Crisp 0.317 22 4 0 4 15.4%
5 Orlando Cabrera 0.335 27 3 2 5 15.6%
6 Br Phillips 0.324 25 2 3 5 16.7%
7 Carl Crawford 0.348 58 9 4 13 18.3%
8 Dave Roberts 0.360 49 6 6 12 19.7%
9 Kenny Lofton 0.360 32 5 3 8 20.0%
10 David Wright 0.381 20 5 0 5 20.0%
11 Derek Jeter 0.417 34 5 4 9 20.9%
12 Corey Patterson 0.314 45 9 3 12 21.1%
13 Eric Byrnes 0.313 25 3 4 7 21.9%
14 Josh Barfield 0.318 21 5 1 6 22.2%
15 Felipe Lopez 0.358 44 12 1 13 22.8%
16 Bobby Abreu 0.424 30 6 3 9 23.1%
17 Hanley Ramirez 0.353 51 15 2 17 25.0%
18 Omar Vizquel 0.361 24 7 2 9 27.3%
19 Chone Figgins 0.336 52 16 4 20 27.8%
20 Brian Roberts 0.347 36 7 7 14 28.0%
21 Jose Reyes 0.354 64 17 8 25 28.1%
22 Rafael Furcal 0.369 37 13 2 15 28.8%
23 Grady Sizemore 0.375 22 6 3 9 29.0%
24 Juan Pierre 0.330 58 20 6 26 31.0%
25 Joey Gathright 0.321 22 9 2 11 33.3%
26 Johnny Damon 0.359 25 10 3 13 34.2%
27 Julio Lugo 0.341 24 9 4 13 35.1%
28 Willy Taveras 0.333 33 9 9 18 35.3%
29 Mike Cameron 0.355 25 9 5 14 35.9%
30 Luis Castillo 0.358 25 11 3 14 35.9%
31 Ryan Freel 0.363 37 11 10 21 36.2%
32 Alfonso Soriano 0.351 41 17 7 24 36.9%
33 Carlos Guillen 0.400 20 9 3 12 37.5%
34 Scott Podsednik 0.331 40 19 11 30 42.9%
35 Alfredo Amezaga 0.332 20 12 3 15 42.9%

WVRedsFan
02-18-2007, 03:10 AM
Freel stole 37 bases in 2006. He was caught 11 times and picked-off 10 more. Making 21 outs while stealing 37 bases isn't adding to his value. His baserunning is a big negative. When your top offensive attribute is getting on base, giving that back to the opponent 21 times isn't helping. He'd have to steal 75 or 80 bases to make it worth that many outs.

I wish he'd never run. Heck, with his track record I wish he wouldn't even try to get a lead off of the base.

Ryan Freel is the typical Cincinnati fan favorite. No other fans in America value hustle as much as the fans in Cincinnati. The fact that he plays with reckless abandon makes no difference. The fact that his 37 SB's along with 21 outs he made while trying to steal makes no difference. The fact that he can't play everyday without a reduction in performance makes no difference. He hustles. Since he hustles, even though he may be a little late getting a jump on a ball and thus having to dive to try to get the ball, he's hustling and it makes no difference. Jerry Narron has drunk the Kool-Aid apparently. It doesn't matter.

Last year, I kept hearing what a good pitcher--best in the bullpen, btw--Todd Coffey was. Yet, time after time, he could get 2 outs and then allow three hits. Yet, the fans cried for Coffey. It took me awhile, but I finally figured it out. He hustles. See him run in from the bullpen? Man, that's hustle. Strike out two and allow 4 hits? It doesn't matter. He hustles.

This may be the only fan base in America where it really matters if Adam Dunn walks out to his position or sprints. If Adam would sprint (I can't imagine what that would look like), it wouldn't matter if he struck out so much. He'd be hustling.

I really don't understand.


I agree that speed on the bases and in the field is an asset. I wish everyone was as fast as Freel. But Freel makes outs trying to stretch and being overly aggressive as well. He plays out of control and it somewhat negates (not completely or enough to make him "bad") the things he does well.
Yeah. But it doesn't matter. The fact that he only scored 67 runs in 454 AB's (in the leadoff position most of the time) while Junior scored 62 in 428 bats makes no difference. Freel's 27 RBI's in the 454 AB's compared to Junior's 72 speaks volumes. If you take Denorfia's 106 AB's and multiply by four, you get 424 AB's and you get 56 runs and 28 RBI's. Hmmm. How many balls have to get by Griffey to make up for 45 runs? I don't know.

Hustle is great and I like it, but the best players who hustled, like Rose and a few others, had the brains to know when to kick it up a notch and when to slow it down. Ryan Freel has no idea. That's why he needs to be a sub or be sent far, far away. Of course, that isn't going to happen because Narron, like most of the fans, like his hustle. It doesn't matter.

reds44
02-18-2007, 04:02 AM
Unless you are a complete bafoone, talent trumps hustle. It's awesome if you hustle and have talent (i.e. Pete Rose), but I'll take a talented player over a scrappy player any day of the week. I don't think Dunn is lazy because he doesn't run out to his position. Nor do I love Rolen because he runs around the bases really fast. It's mean nothing. Manny Ramirez won a World Series MVP, and he is just as lazy as Dunn. Also, what really is lazy? Do you think Dunn doesn't work at his craft? Do you think 40 homer and 100 RBIs falls into his lap? No he works, he just isn't scrappy.

reds44
02-18-2007, 04:04 AM
Ryan Freel is the typical Cincinnati fan favorite. No other fans in America value hustle as much as the fans in Cincinnati. The fact that he plays with reckless abandon makes no difference. The fact that his 37 SB's along with 21 outs he made while trying to steal makes no difference. The fact that he can't play everyday without a reduction in performance makes no difference. He hustles. Since he hustles, even though he may be a little late getting a jump on a ball and thus having to dive to try to get the ball, he's hustling and it makes no difference. Jerry Narron has drunk the Kool-Aid apparently. It doesn't matter.

Last year, I kept hearing what a good pitcher--best in the bullpen, btw--Todd Coffey was. Yet, time after time, he could get 2 outs and then allow three hits. Yet, the fans cried for Coffey. It took me awhile, but I finally figured it out. He hustles. See him run in from the bullpen? Man, that's hustle. Strike out two and allow 4 hits? It doesn't matter. He hustles.

This may be the only fan base in America where it really matters if Adam Dunn walks out to his position or sprints. If Adam would sprint (I can't imagine what that would look like), it wouldn't matter if he struck out so much. He'd be hustling.

I really don't understand.


Yeah. But it doesn't matter. The fact that he only scored 67 runs in 454 AB's (in the leadoff position most of the time) while Junior scored 62 in 428 bats makes no difference. Freel's 27 RBI's in the 454 AB's compared to Junior's 72 speaks volumes. If you take Denorfia's 106 AB's and multiply by four, you get 424 AB's and you get 56 runs and 28 RBI's. Hmmm. How many balls have to get by Griffey to make up for 45 runs? I don't know.

Hustle is great and I like it, but the best players who hustled, like Rose and a few others, had the brains to know when to kick it up a notch and when to slow it down. Ryan Freel has no idea. That's why he needs to be a sub or be sent far, far away. Of course, that isn't going to happen because Narron, like most of the fans, like his hustle. It doesn't matter.
WOW. That paragraph speaks volumes.

dsmith421
02-18-2007, 04:12 AM
WOW. That paragraph speaks volumes.

Why? Denorfia wouldn't be supplanting Griffey. Junior would still be in the lineup every day (with all applicable disclaimers).

Look, my whole thing is this: let's say you're right. Let's say there's an 80 per cent chance that Deno is an AAAA player, and a 20 per cent chance he can hit and field at the MLB level. At this stage, I think the Reds need to figure out which is the actual outcome. Because it would be REAL nice to have Brady Clark around right now, and I have a feeling Denorfia, if the Reds give up on him, is going to have a nice career somewhere else.

Caveat Emperor
02-18-2007, 05:40 AM
WOW. That paragraph speaks volumes.

"Runs" is largely a team-dependant stat. Other than hitting a home run or stealing home once on base, a hitter/baserunner is dependant on the other players in the lineup in order to score a run.

How many lost "run" opportunities did players hitting in front of Sean Casey have for years because of his propensity for grounding into the 4-6-3? Is that because that guy sucks, or because Casey never adjusted his plate approach to lay off balls designed for him to pull on the ground?

mth123
02-18-2007, 06:24 AM
Yeah. But it doesn't matter. The fact that he only scored 67 runs in 454 AB's (in the leadoff position most of the time) while Junior scored 62 in 428 bats makes no difference. Freel's 27 RBI's in the 454 AB's compared to Junior's 72 speaks volumes. If you take Denorfia's 106 AB's and multiply by four, you get 424 AB's and you get 56 runs and 28 RBI's. Hmmm. How many balls have to get by Griffey to make up for 45 runs? I don't know.

This is a little unfair to Deno. His playing time came post trade, post Griffey getting hurt, post Dunn, Hatte, Ross and Phillips going in the tank, etc. The team just wasn't scoring runs on a nightly basis. These stats are very team dependent and projecting his Run and RBI totals from 106 AB's during a team slump doesn't get you a realistic view of what he'll do over a full season. If anyone insists on judging a player's worth off of runs and RBI, these projections are not indicative of what those numbers are really likely to be.

Now I happen to agree on Freel being out of control, not getting great jumps and being a lot of flash that in and of itself may not actually be helping the team win. I said earlier that I wish he wouldn't run and make outs on the bases, but he isn't worthless either. He gets on base regularly, and if he wouldn't make so many outs on the bases would be one of the better lead-off options in the league (and may be that anyway since so many other of the lead-off types like Pierre and Taveras do the same thing w/o getting on base as often). In spite of his poor jumps, he still covers a lot of ground in the OF and catches what he gets to. I happen to think the ability to spot him at 2B and 3B (which could make him the top sub for the entire IF if others were moved around when SS or 1B need rest) is very valuable though the Reds don't seem willing to give him time in the IF anymore. At his fairly cheap salary, he adds value to the team that couldn't be had for that amount (Javy and Castro are in his salary range and the pen geezers and Conine all make more).

As for Griffey, I'm pretty critical of his CF play and if he resists a switch to RF it will really lower his status in my eyes. But I happen to think that he is still "the guy" in this line-up. There is a reason that Dunn hits so well in the 2 hole and I don't think it has as much to do with the 2 hole as it does the guy in the 3 hole. He provides power and protection that is obviously missing when he isn't there. The line-up is maximized with JR hitting behind Dunn and EE which probably means 5th in the current configuration. No one is suggesting Griffey be benched or that be taken away. Deno or Freel are going to be in the line-up anyway switching them with Griffey in the OF has nothing to do with offense really.

As for your Coffey criticisms, I like Coffey and it has nothing to do with him sprinting in from the pen. It has more to do with a K/9 number near 7, a BB/9 in the low 3s or below and a HR/9 less than 1. He is really the only Reds pen guy who looks to be capable of being average or better at this point. I have no thoughts that he is Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera, but he is a plus pitcher on a team that only has two others (Harang and Arroyo).

jojo
02-18-2007, 09:11 AM
WOW. That paragraph speaks volumes.


Actually that paragraph almost ruined an otherwise well thought out and excellent post.

Newman4
02-18-2007, 10:57 AM
Not that I'm disagreeing, but where are you finding stats that says Freel got "picked off" 10 times last season? Everything I find has 37 SB and 11 CS. No mention of "pick offs"

mth123
02-18-2007, 10:59 AM
Not that I'm disagreeing, but where are you finding stats that says Freel got "picked off" 10 times last season? Everything I find has 37 SB and 11 CS. No mention of "pick offs"

Baseball prospectus has those. The 11 CS don't count pick-off numbers.

Newman4
02-18-2007, 11:09 AM
Baseball prospectus has those. The 11 CS don't count pick-off numbers.

What's the column heading? I'm on Freel's page there, but don't see it.

mth123
02-18-2007, 11:28 AM
What's the column heading? I'm on Freel's page there, but don't see it.

Can't get it on his page. You have to use the customizable stat download.

M2
02-18-2007, 05:14 PM
If he can have an OBP north of .350 he'll be useful, I don't know if he will be able to hit enough to do it.

He's been above a .350 OB up the ladder in the minors. He's got .358 OB in the majors to date. If that's the bar you've set for the guy, then it seems to me he's already shown you he can clear it without much trouble.

fielder's choice
02-20-2007, 09:38 PM
Ryan Freel has no idea. That's why he needs to be a sub or be sent far, far away. Of course, that isn't going to happen because Narron, like most of the fans, like his hustle. It doesn't matter.

Or maybe because he can hit major league pitching and get on base, something Denorfia can't do yet?

jojo
02-20-2007, 10:12 PM
Or maybe because he can hit major league pitching and get on base, something Denorfia can't do yet?

Dude man..... zippy the supersub has a career line of .274/.367/.383....

He doesnt so much hit major league pitching as tends to not swing at it alot of major league pitches...

MississippiRed
02-21-2007, 12:25 PM
Guys, I just want to say that I really have enjoyed this thread. This type of discussion is why I made a donation to RZ the other day and just subscribed to Baseball Prosepectus. (I had to see the numbers for myself.) Based on the arguments I've read here and the projections from BP, I have to hope we give Deno a shot at CF everyday and move Griffey to RF. It will make us a better team, and this is from a guy who thinks Griffey is the man and always will think so. I won't blame KG if he is starting in CF this year, but I will blame Narron and, to a lesser extent, Krivsky. Freel's role as a supersub has been defined in the majors, and that is where he needs to stay. It is a terribly important role on this team.

Dunner44
02-22-2007, 08:49 AM
saw this in the enquirer today:

A reporter from MLB Productions was doing a standup to introduce his report. He was halfway through the bit of Ken Griffey Jr.'s possible move to right field. He didn't notice Griffey was sitting within earshot until Griffey interjected a loud "bull!" The take was ruined, but a good laugh was had.


hmmm....

uks2h
02-22-2007, 02:45 PM
Just for the hell of it, I really want to see Griffey in Center Field for one more opening day in cincy. I don't care if it makes sense or not, I just want to see my favorite player in his position.

BRM
02-22-2007, 02:47 PM
Just for the hell of it, I really want to see Griffey in Center Field for one more opening day in cincy. I don't care if it makes sense or not, I just want to see my favorite player in his position.

I could live with that as long as it was the only game he played there all season.

mth123
02-22-2007, 04:35 PM
I could live with that as long as it was the only game he played there all season.

and he moved to right after the first pitch.

Razor Shines
02-22-2007, 05:00 PM
and he moved to right after the first pitch.

That would be cool if they had kind of a ceremony after the first pitch.