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TheWalls
02-16-2007, 01:59 PM
I'm sitting here comparing the starting 8, five most like starters and end of the pens for the Reds, Cards, Cubs and Brewers side by side.

The Brewers may be the most balanced, have the most upside with the youngsters, and the best pen. The Cards look old (Edmonds, Rolen, Encarnacion) and really thin at pitcher, but they have exceptional clutch hitting. The Cubs look like an incredibly expensive 85 win team that will have nice stats and a crappy record.

The Reds certainly don't look outclassed across the board. I think the top of the order will be able to manufacture runs, we have decent thumpers in the middle of the lineup and the bottom will keep pitchers honest. The defense other than the left side is good, especially if Junior moves to RF and I think the starters and pen both compare quite favorably.

I am struck by how all of these rosters are fragile to injuries to key players.

Take a look. (Sorry, the editor won't let me space better)

Reds Cards Cubs Brewers
1B Hatteberg Pujols Lee Fielder
2B Phillips Kennedy De Rosa Weeks
SS Gonzalez Eckstein Izturis Hardy
3B Encarnacion Rolen Ramirez Koskie
LF Dunn Duncan Murton Jenkins
CF Griffey Edmonds Soriano Hall
RF Freel Encarnacion Jones Hart
C Ross Molina Barrett Estrada

SP1 Harang Carpenter ZambranoCapuano
SP2 Arroyo Wells Lilly Sheets
SP3 Milton Reyes Marquis Suppan
SP4 Lohse Wainright Hill Bush
SP5 Saarlos Looper Prior Vargas

BP1 Stanton Isringhausen Dempster Cordero
BP2 Weathers Rincon Wood Wise
BP3 Coffey Flores Howry Turnbow
BP4 Bray Hancock Eyre Capellan

savafan
02-16-2007, 02:04 PM
On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

dabvu2498
02-16-2007, 02:07 PM
Double post

dabvu2498
02-16-2007, 02:08 PM
On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

http://sjl-static7.sjl.youtube.com/vi/kc2pAtAA85I/2.jpg

Playoffs?

savafan
02-16-2007, 02:08 PM
playoffs=post season=championship series=fantasy land

jojo
02-16-2007, 02:12 PM
The Cards look old (Edmonds, Rolen, Encarnacion) and really thin at pitcher, but they have exceptional clutch hitting.

The Cards have the best rotation in the division.

I won't even comment about the clutch hitting because it's so completely trumped by the Reds increased defensive IQ and heart.

:cool:

savafan
02-16-2007, 02:23 PM
The Cards have the best rotation in the division.



The Cards have the rotation most likely to spend the season on the DL as well.

Heath
02-16-2007, 02:32 PM
On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

The following is a bad statement -

If the Reds made the playoffs, I'd be thrilled. I could care less if they got swept. They made it.

vaticanplum
02-16-2007, 04:45 PM
If the Reds made the playoffs, I'd be thrilled. I could care less if they got swept. They made it.

I feel the same way right now.

I doubt I'd feel that way once they got there. I doubt you would either :p:

Caveman Techie
02-16-2007, 05:01 PM
With the 1, 2 punch of Harang and Arroyo I would give the Reds a shot in any postseason matchup. It's getting there that is the real problem.

Highlifeman21
02-16-2007, 05:08 PM
74-75 wins

If we replace Jerry Narron prior to Opening Day (which won't happen), then we should see 84-86 wins.

This team somehow continues to win in spite of Jerry Narron.

reds44
02-16-2007, 06:54 PM
The Cards have the best rotation in the division.

:
Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

Redhook
02-16-2007, 07:05 PM
http://sjl-static7.sjl.youtube.com/vi/kc2pAtAA85I/2.jpg

Playoffs?

:laugh:

PickOff
02-16-2007, 07:43 PM
Healthy Prior = 95 wins

...for the Cubs that is:(

dunner13
02-16-2007, 07:58 PM
Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

Braden Looper could be our best player this year. Im betting dunn gets at least 5 homeruns off looper alone.

Eric_Davis
02-16-2007, 08:10 PM
With the 1, 2 punch of Harang and Arroyo I would give the Reds a shot in any postseason matchup. It's getting there that is the real problem.

Agree.

Eric_Davis
02-16-2007, 08:11 PM
Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

The Cards may have the worst starting rotation in the division.

PuffyPig
02-16-2007, 08:12 PM
The Cards have the best rotation in the division.



Maybe the worst on paper. Only one of their starters had any success last year.

But their relievers are better than what's presented. Thompson and Johnson are better than Hancock and Rincon.

corkedbat
02-16-2007, 09:30 PM
Get me to the playoffs and then I'll worry about the postseason. Oh how I would love to have worries like that! :beerme:

jojo
02-16-2007, 09:34 PM
The Cards may have the worst starting rotation in the division.

Actually no, they may have one of the best rotations in the divsion on paper. Here's their projected starter's Pecota ERAs. Their number 5 in this scenario is Mulder and he is the only guy projected to have an ERA that is below league average and its only just below.

Carpenter 3.39
A. Reyes 3.91
Wainright 4.01
Wells 4.62
Mulder 4.82

St Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Houstan all, if healthy, have better rotations than the Reds. The key is health and when Clemens decides to pitch. The Reds need to hope for alot of sore arms and tight shoulders.

harangatang
02-16-2007, 09:36 PM
With the 1, 2 punch of Harang and Arroyo I would give the Reds a shot in any postseason matchup. It's getting there that is the real problem.That's exactly right. The 2001 Diamondbacks with Schilling and Johnson are a perfect example. Unfortunately for the Reds I doubt they'll make it. But if they do you never know what can happen.

WhoDeyInIndy
02-16-2007, 10:21 PM
Hi everyone, I am new to the post and have been looking for a place to follow the Reds for awhile.

Now on this topic: How can you begin by turning 3-inning Milton loose in GABP as your number FOUR and feel like we stack up.

I hope we develop the heart the team had in 1999. I know they missed the playoffs, but if we were down by less than 10 runs in the ninth I felt like we had a shot.

jmac
02-16-2007, 10:30 PM
That's exactly right. The 2001 Diamondbacks with Schilling and Johnson are a perfect example. Unfortunately for the Reds I doubt they'll make it. But if they do you never know what can happen.

That's where a possible Bailey addition and a surprise season from someone like Sarloos could really help.

PuffyPig
02-16-2007, 11:49 PM
Actually no, they may have one of the best rotations in the divsion on paper. Here's their projected starter's Pecota ERAs.
Carpenter 3.39
A. Reyes 3.91
Wainright 4.01
Wells 4.62
Mulder 4.82



I'll believe that Reyes can post a sub 4 ERA over a full season when he actually does it. Wainwright hasn't started a major league game in his life, and wasn't a stud minor league starter.

I'd be surprised if any of their 2-5 starters listed above can hit 160 innings for the season.

jmac
02-17-2007, 12:06 AM
I'll believe that Reyes can post a sub 4 ERA over a full season when he actually does it. Wainwright hasn't started a major league game in his life, and wasn't a stud minor league starter.

I'd be surprised if any of their 2-5 starters listed above can hit 160 innings for the season.

plus i was listening to st louis station the other night and they are not looking for mulder back for awhile.

Bigredfan#1
02-17-2007, 12:43 AM
Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

I felt like the Cards did it with mirrors last year and this year they even look more vulernable. I would think the Cubs potentially have the best with the Brewers not far behind, the Reds rotation won't be too shabby either, if you add Bailey they could be very competitive.

savafan
02-17-2007, 06:31 AM
Healthy Prior = 95 wins

...for the Cubs that is:(

Dusty's not around anymore, remember. There's no way Sweet Lou lets Prior start 95 games. :p:

jojo
02-17-2007, 11:02 AM
Dusty's not around anymore, remember. There's no way Sweet Lou lets Prior start 95 games. :p:

I dunno....Lou's not exactly a genius with pitching staffs either...

Rocket_Fuel
02-18-2007, 04:09 PM
If the Reds can get solid production from the bullpen and solid productions from Loshe, Milton and another pitcher (maybe Homer Bailey), they can do some serious damage.

TheWalls
02-18-2007, 04:44 PM
I wonder out loud what Lohse has done to earn a free pass?

Is it possible that Saarlos and Belisle could be the best pitchers for the 4th and 5th spots?

Cant Touch This
02-20-2007, 07:20 PM
I really like Belisle's stuff. He can reach the mid 90s and when he's on his game, he's a very tough pitcher to face. It's that whole control thing...

If Homer doesn't join the rotation early, slots 3-5 are anyone's guess. Milton and Lohse seem to be the favorites, but I agree with Sugar Walls - Lohse needs to earn his spot in the Spring.

I believe the Reds are committed to slotting Milton into the rotation and I don't have a problem with that at this time based only on what's available.

Where's Juan Guzman when you need him...?

biggergipper
03-08-2007, 10:57 PM
Cards - lost starters, edmonds a year older, rolen's back is questionable, they have the scrapy ex-angels dp combo. I say worse this year than last, although they did win the world series (hold on while i swallow the puke in my mouth).

Astros - Clemens and Pet gone, that makes them worse notwithstanding the loss of Huff.

Pittsburgh - Lost their closer. As long as their new 1st baseman doesn't continue his homer streak into the season, they will be no better than last year, which is bad enough.

Brewers - Everyone says they are going to break through every year and every year they struggle to stay in contention. I think the loss of Lee off last year's squad makes them less intimidating than last year.

Cubs - C'mon their the Cubs. Even with Sweet Lou pulling the strings they will find a way to blow it. Zambrano has thrown a ton of innings the last three years under Dusty, and at his age is seriously at risk of arm troubles. the outfield of Jones, Murton, Soriano is defensively challenged and at best a wash with the Reds. Aramis signed his big deal and will go back to being a slacker.

i think the Reds stand as good if not better chance of contending this year as last. I think Lohse is going to be pitching for a free agent contract, Gonzo will solidify the infield and hit 20 homers with a .250 average (better than Clayton), EE will improve and Dunn will rebound under Jacoby. I also would place a friendly bet that Hamilton ends up with equal or better numbers to Kearns by seasons end.