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View Full Version : Majewskigate redux?



Ga_Red
02-18-2007, 04:28 PM
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/

reds44
02-18-2007, 04:39 PM
Ahh, the gift that keeps on giving. This could turn into one of the biggest blunders in team history.

pedro
02-18-2007, 05:22 PM
This could turn into one of the biggest blunders in team history.

I highly doubt it.

Yachtzee
02-18-2007, 07:42 PM
Ahh, the gift that keeps on giving. This could turn into one of the biggest blunders in team history.

Unless Kearns and Lopez somehow end up as Hall-of-Famers, the Mathewson and Robinson trades have this one beat by a mile. That being said, this trade still looks pretty bad.

pedro
02-18-2007, 08:53 PM
How about trading Paul O'Neill?

or losing Trevor Hoffman in the expansion draft?

or trading Jeff Montgomery for nothing?

There's a ton of things this org has done throughout the years that are way worse than "the trade"

westofyou
02-18-2007, 09:09 PM
Johnny Mize

Ken Williams

Hank Sauer

King Kelly

Lots of better guys have slipped through this franchised skinny hands over the years.

Spitball
02-18-2007, 09:21 PM
If Bray turns into anything near B.J.Ryan, the trade with Washington will be a success for the Reds. Pitching is the most difficult commodity in baseball to develope, trade for, and/or sign. And, like any trade, only time can fairly measure the value of the trade with the Nationals.

If Kearns continues to annually put up 20 homers, 85 RBI's, and a .265 average, he will be a journeyman corner outfielder who will move from team to team just like Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Moises Alou, Juan Encarnacion, Jeromy Burnitz and all the other good, but not great, outfielders.

As a good hit-no field second baseman, Lopez will surely follow the same path as all the others of similar ilk, Todd Walker, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Womack, Ron Belliard, and Marcus Giles. Smart teams move the Kearnses and Lopezes of the world because they don't want to waste money on players who are easily replaced.

Topcat
02-18-2007, 10:05 PM
Ahh, the gift that keeps on giving. This could turn into one of the biggest blunders in team history.


Wow the hyperbole :eek:

M2
02-18-2007, 11:37 PM
If Bray turns into anything near B.J.Ryan, the trade with Washington will be a success for the Reds.

He won't. He doesn't have nearly the stuff for it. It should be noted that Ryan didn't do anything worth mentioning until he was age 27. If Bray takes another four years to break through I'm going out on a limb and predicting he won't be with the Reds when it happens.

Though Kearns and Lopez have amassed essentially the same number of Win Shares to date as Ryan even after he turned into B.J. Ryan. A better comparable for Bray would be Mike Stanton, whose value has been in longevity, not excellence.


If Kearns continues to annually put up 20 homers, 85 RBI's, and a .265 average, he will be a journeyman corner outfielder who will move from team to team just like Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Moises Alou, Juan Encarnacion, Jeromy Burnitz and all the other good, but not great, outfielders.

That's an odd grouping in terms of career value. Alou and Sanders, though they've made a lot of stops, probably rank in the top 50 RFs of all time. If Kearns goes on to have a career like those two then we should wail openly.


As a good hit-no field second baseman, Lopez will surely follow the same path as all the others of similar ilk, Todd Walker, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Womack, Ron Belliard, and Marcus Giles.

Jose Vidro would be the comp I'd use. I'll be fairly amazed if Lopez doesn't surpass the first four guys on your list.


Smart teams move the Kearnses and Lopezes of the world because they don't want to waste money on players who are easily replaced.

Hmm, I'm all over the place agreeing and disagreeing with that statement. Guys like Kearns and Lopez aren't/weren't easily replaced. They left a huge hole last year and the Reds still haven't filled it.

They're also unqualified bargains in the current market.

That said, I agree that they were good players to move. The Reds had to turn some bats into arms, following in the vein of the Wily Mo Pena and Jose Guillen trades. So, while they were the right guys to move, the point isn't to get rid of them, it's to trade them for a quality return. That's where the Reds blew it and it's the source of complaint.

One of Kearns or Lopez for Bray would have been a gamble, but one you could at least view as a long-term play. Majewski's where it all falls apart. He's not all that good when he's healthy and he's got persistent arm trouble to boot. So you're talking about trading two productive everyday players for one gamble on a lefty reliever. That's not something smart teams do.

As for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful. Has the franchise done worse? Sure, but that doesn't excuse the putridity of this one.

Reds Fanatic
02-18-2007, 11:42 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070218&content_id=1807139&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


SARASOTA, Fla. -- Reliever Gary Majewski wanted to leave talk about his sore shoulder in the past.
The Reds hoped a new season and fresh start for Majewski would quell criticism that they acquired damaged goods last summer.

Neither desire was feasible, at least not yet anyway.

As Reds pitchers and catchers held their first workout on Sunday afternoon, Majewski was being held back. The 27-year-old right-hander's throwing shoulder became sore again in January while performing his offseason throwing program.

"I was working out one day and it just popped up on me," said Majewski, who flew to Cincinnati last month to be seen by team medical director Dr. Tim Kremchek. "It was the same spot. It was a matter of getting to the bottom of it. We found out what it was and we're good."

Instead of Majewski participating fully in workouts with the rest of the pitchers, the medical staff limited him to a rehabilitation throwing program for the next week to build arm strength. That means no working off a mound.

Under new baseball rules, the medical department is no longer allowed to provide injury updates about players to the media.

"Everything I've heard is he should be ready to go pretty quick," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "But anytime someone can't start the first day with all the drills everybody else does, it'll always be a concern. We'll see where he is."

Majewski was allowed to play catch before the workout began but stopped throwing earlier than the other pitchers. When pitchers threw a ball to home plate during fielding drills, Majewski lightly simulated the motion without a ball in his right hand.

"We're probably being overly cautious but I'd rather err on that side than do something where he could have a setback," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said.

In an eight-player trade that sent popular hitters Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Nationals on July 13, the Reds acquired Majewski and Bill Bray with hopes of improving their bullpen.

The move backfired when Majewski was hit hard and posted a 12.54 ERA over his first 11 appearances. He was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation on Aug. 7.

That day began a saga of controversy that has yet to find conclusion.

On the day he was placed on the DL, Majewski revealed to the media he had been sore since participating in March's World Baseball Classic. He also disclosed that he received a cortisone injection from the Nationals' medical staff only a few days before the trade.

Krivsky claimed that Washington GM Jim Bowden did not disclose the injury or the injection. Krivsky later threatened to file a grievance against the Nationals for not dealing fairly, but that grievance has yet to be filed. He would not comment Sunday on the issue's status.

Many Reds fans and those in media circles have roundly criticized Krivsky for dealing away too much offense for what Cincinnati received in return. Another twist came in December, when Nationals head trainer Tim Abraham resigned, citing family reasons. A Nationals spokesman insisted, however, that Abraham's departure had nothing to do with the Majewski issue.

After he was activated from the DL Aug. 31, Majewski posted a 1.59 ERA and said the rest returned his shoulder to feeling 100 percent again. He finished the season with an 8.40 ERA in 19 games for the Reds, and a 4.61 ERA in 65 games overall with Washington and Cincinnati.

Majewski and the Reds were optimistic this latest setback wouldn't keep him down for long.

"They'll re-evaluate the throwing program and see what I need to do," Majewski said. "It's not going to be like a guy coming off of surgery and going real slow. It's probably going to be a little more intense to build it up."

"The staff isn't concerned so I'm not," Krivsky said. "If he's a little behind, I'd rather get him 100 percent before he starts throwing. That's the recommendation I've been given so that's what we're going to do."

Falls City Beer
02-18-2007, 11:46 PM
As for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful. Has the franchise done worse? Sure, but that doesn't excuse the putridity of this one.

Yep. When a trade hurts the fortunes of my favorite team, excuse me for not trying to placate my anger by digging deeper in the muck to find even stinkier turds.

The long view is great (time heals all wounds, blah, blah, blah)--but the fact is, a team's fortunes in the middle of the season comprise three days: yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Everything else (including next season) is meaningless.

Marc D
02-19-2007, 12:28 AM
"Its not the worst in franchise history"-the best that can be said at this point about The Trade.

WMR
02-19-2007, 12:42 AM
"Its not the worst in franchise history"-the best that can be said at this point about The Trade.

http://l5rshop.com/images/cards/fields_of_pyrrhic_victory.jpg

Ga_Red
02-19-2007, 02:03 AM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/02/18/ddn021907redsnotes.html

Heath
02-19-2007, 08:21 AM
Johnny Mize

Ken Williams

Hank Sauer

King Kelly

Lots of better guys have slipped through this franchised skinny hands over the years.

Joe Adcock comes to mind.

You could argue that Hal McRae for Roger Nelson or Ross Grimsley for Merv Rettenmund was worse.

membengal
02-19-2007, 09:16 AM
All I hope at this point is that WK learned a lot from that deal.

redsmetz
02-19-2007, 09:32 AM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/02/18/ddn021907redsnotes.html

From the Hal McCoy article (insert grain of salt here)


"The doctor cleared me to throw, but they're putting me on a program to build my strength back up," he said. "My scapula is tired, fatigued, slowed down and not working with everything else. I've been here for two weeks working out because a couple weeks before that I visited the doctor in Cincinnati, and we figured out what was wrong. So it is a matter of working hard to get the shoulder strong, really hammering it."

If this is an accurate quote, this really makes me wonder about our medical staff. Given the history with Majewski, why on earth wasn't he on a strengthening program during the entire off-season? I wonder about Kremchek sometimes.

Falls City Beer
02-19-2007, 09:40 AM
I wonder about Kremchek sometimes.

Kremchek's a turd, but you can't treat something you're not apprised of. In the article, it also says that Maj downplays the severity of the pain/weakness. I kind of find it hard to fault Doc in this case.

Redhook
02-19-2007, 09:42 AM
From the Hal McCoy article (insert grain of salt here)



If this is an accurate quote, this really makes me wonder about our medical staff. Given the history with Majewski, why on earth wasn't he on a strengthening program during the entire off-season? I wonder about Kremchek sometimes.

Agreed. This is not good and it doesn't seem like a simple case of him just needing more strength in his shoulder. I don't know what's going on with the Reds medical staff.

On the bright side, it seems we have plenty of average relievers, and that's pretty much was Majic is, to take his place if and when he doesn't pitch. Unless he pitched like he did in 2005, highly unlikely, I don't think he'd make that much of a difference good or bad for the 2007 Reds.

redsmetz
02-19-2007, 09:50 AM
Kremchek's a turd, but you can't treat something you're not apprised of. In the article, it also says that Maj downplays the severity of the pain/weakness. I kind of find it hard to fault Doc in this case.

For me it isn't an issue of what took place last summer. I completely agree with you that it appears that Bowden's staff did not fully disclose the then recent treatment of Majek. And perhaps it isn't really anything, but I would think, since he came off the disabled list towards the end of last season that he would have been given a solid strengthening program and, it seems from this quote, it wasn't done.

I sometimes wonder whether Kremchek's more in love with the celebrity than actually doing the job he's paid to do. Word on the street is that he also doesn't run to and from the operating room. Wait until Marty catches wind of that!

Redsland
02-19-2007, 11:53 AM
His scapula is tired?

(Psst...Doc? Hey Doc. The scapula is a bone. Bones don't get tired.)

Red Leader
02-19-2007, 12:38 PM
His scapula is tired?

(Psst...Doc? Hey Doc. The scapula is a bone. Bones don't get tired.)

http://www.blasting-zone.com/Beavis%20And%20Butthead_Pic_4.gif

You said it, dude.

Falls City Beer
02-19-2007, 01:12 PM
His scapula is tired?

(Psst...Doc? Hey Doc. The scapula is a bone. Bones don't get tired.)

That's Maj. saying his scapula is tired, not Doc.

KYRedsFan
02-19-2007, 01:32 PM
They're talking about scapulothoracic dyskinesia likely.

LoganBuck
02-19-2007, 04:23 PM
Ahh, spring is now officially here. We now have the pitcher that has been placed on the strengthening program. Jimmy Haynes, Denny Naegle, Pete Harnish, Paul Wilson, etc say :wave:

Spitball
02-19-2007, 04:38 PM
He won't. He doesn't have nearly the stuff for it.

I disagree. Ryan and Bray are both power lefties that throw in the low nineties. To say Bray doesn't "have nearly the stuff" is a dismissal without substance but with the benefit of not having to actually have to wait until the future to prove that statement.

Ryan was about the same age as Bray when he was traded by the Reds and no one felt he was an all-star closer in the making. The former 17th round pick threw hard, but he was all over the place with his pitches and his mechanics. He was not as good a pitcher as Bray at similar stages of their careers.

Bray was a first round pick, chosen right after Jered Weaver. Even if he was picked too early, he was easily a late round one or round two pick. He has legitimate potential to develop into a power closer, but we will have to wait before we can proclaim the development settled.



It should be noted that Ryan didn't do anything worth mentioning until he was age 27. If Bray takes another four years to break through I'm going out on a limb and predicting he won't be with the Reds when it happens.

As stated, Bray is already developing faster than than Ryan. At the baseline, Bray is starting with greater potential than Ryan, but of course there are lots of factors to reaching perceived potential.


Though Kearns and Lopez have amassed essentially the same number of Win Shares to date as Ryan even after he turned into B.J. Ryan. A better comparable for Bray would be Mike Stanton, whose value has been in longevity, not excellence.

Is the first statement designed to prove the second? I don't believe it does because the second statement is merely an unsubstantiated opinion.


That's an odd grouping in terms of career value. Alou and Sanders, though they've made a lot of stops, probably rank in the top 50 RFs of all time. If Kearns goes on to have a career like those two then we should wail openly.

My point was obviously that the mentioned outfielders were well travelled because they are good not great players at a position that is easy to develop or sign. The right fielder should be one of the top three offensive players on the team, and I don't believe Kearns will ever develop into that type of player on a good team. He just isn't that good. His pre-trade line playing half his games in a hitters' park was .274/.351/.492, which was not bad except he is a right fielder. They should be hitting better. Kearns struckout nearly 25% of the time and grounded into double plays better than 10% times he came to bat with a runner on first. He was a poor hitter with runners on base and scoring position (I believe he actually cost the Reds 3.6 runs). Kearns created (park adjusted) only 4.83 runs for ever 27 outs while with the Reds last season. He was an average offensive player, playing a position in which better offense should be expected, on the verge of arbitration. He was also injury prone, overweight, under motivated, and a year removed from minor league demotion. Kearns had very little trade value, but he still needed to be moved.



Jose Vidro would be the comp I'd use. I'll be fairly amazed if Lopez doesn't surpass the first four guys on your list.

Well, you may be amazed, but that is just your opnion. Between 2001 and 2004, Lopez was not a very good player. In 2005, he had a very good year, but 16 of his 23 homers were first row shots at GAB. Last year, he showed regression. Which Lopez will it be? Throw out 2005 and you have little merit for suggesting Lopez will surpass the second basemen I mentioned.

Lopez and Kearns were not/are not good enough players to merit takng significant budget room.


As for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful.

Well, we could argue the historical merit of anything, but it (history) requires time truly to measure the significance

KYRedsFan
02-19-2007, 04:47 PM
Ahh, spring is now officially here. We now have the pitcher that has been placed on the strengthening program. Jimmy Haynes, Denny Naegle, Pete Harnish, Paul Wilson, etc say :wave:

Exactly, this is sad.

M2
02-19-2007, 10:24 PM
I disagree. Ryan and Bray are both power lefties that throw in the low nineties. To say Bray doesn't "have nearly the stuff" is a dismissal without substance but with the benefit of not having to actually have to wait until the future to prove that statement.

Ryan can dial high '90s and he can get a two-plane break. I don't need to wait until the future to know Bray's stuff isn't nearly as filthy. I doubt there's a scout alive who'd grade Bray's stuff as being close to Ryan's. That's not a knock on Bray either. Stanton always had good stuff. I'm not saying Bray can't be good, but I'm not going to sit here and pretend his repertoire is better than it is either.


Is the first statement designed to prove the second? I don't believe it does because the second statement is merely an unsubstantiated opinion.

As unsubstantiated as comparing him to Ryan. What's that based on other than desperate hope? Stuffwise, Bray strikes me as being in Stanton's class. There's nothing wrong with spending the better part of two decades as a setup man.


My point was obviously that the mentioned outfielders were well travelled because they are good not great players at a position that is easy to develop or sign.

They travelled. So what. If a team had the foresight to keep Moises Alou for the past decade it would have gotten a .305/235/856 performance. That is far from easy to replace. Good players are good things to have around and they shouldn't be blithely dismissed.


The right fielder should be one of the top three offensive players on the team, and I don't believe Kearns will ever develop into that type of player on a good team. He just isn't that good. His pre-trade line playing half his games in a hitters' park was .274/.351/.492, which was not bad except he is a right fielder.

Kearns ranked 9th among all RFs in runs above replacement player last year. He was roughly 40 OPS points above the average RF when the Reds dealt him.


Kearns struckout nearly 25% of the time and grounded into double plays better than 10% times he came to bat with a runner on first. He was a poor hitter with runners on base and scoring position (I believe he actually cost the Reds 3.6 runs). Kearns created (park adjusted) only 4.83 runs for ever 27 outs while with the Reds last season. He was an average offensive player, playing a position in which better offense should be expected, on the verge of arbitration. He was also injury prone, overweight, under motivated, and a year removed from minor league demotion. Kearns had very little trade value, but he still needed to be moved.

I was never an Austin Kearns fan. In fact, I'd have traded him years ago, but he didn't suck. He was above average for his position, young and cheap. Thanks to the contract he recently signed, he'll be a bargain for the next three years when he's in his prime. He was, unquestionably, more valuable than Wily Mo Pena, who fetched Arroyo.

If Austin Kearns just trolls along as a middle tier RF the next few years, you'd have to be a fairly elite reliever to be more valuable than that. As I said before, if the Reds had decided to overpay and trade Kearns for Bray, because they're in love with the lefty, I would have been all right with that. It would have been a gamble, but I could at least see where the gamble might pay off. The deal went way beyond that and it's when you get into those matter where the objections really start to pile up.


Well, you may be amazed, but that is just your opnion. Between 2001 and 2004, Lopez was not a very good player. In 2005, he had a very good year, but 16 of his 23 homers were first row shots at GAB. Last year, he showed regression. Which Lopez will it be? Throw out 2005 and you have little merit for suggesting Lopez will surpass the second basemen I mentioned.

All he's got to do is have four more years like last season and he'll match guys like Walker and Belliard. Lopez doesn't have to get any better to do that. He's already a 15 Win Shares guy doing what he did last year. He doesn't have to reclaim any power. He doesn't have to field any better. He doesn't have to get any better now that he's heading into what should be his prime.

That's not opinion. That's where he'll end up with another four years like his 2006 season. Perhaps it's your opinion that he'll get worse at a point in his career where most guys get better, but he took a decided step forward at age 25 and I've yet to see a rationale for why his OB skills will go into regression.


Lopez and Kearns were not/are not good enough players to merit takng significant budget room.

I guess it depends on your definition of "significant," but in baseball circa 2007 they're relative bargains -- $7.4M for two everyday players is peanuts.


Well, we could argue the historical merit of anything, but it (history) requires time truly to measure the significance

I don't need time to measure the 2006 season. The deal weakened the Reds and the team very well could have won the division had the deal not been made. I also don't need time to measure the opportunity cost of not having Kearns and Lopez around to deal for someone else. The market popped. Lousy OFs are getting paid double what Kearns will make the next three seasons. The market made Kearns and Lopez more valuable this offseason (though I doubt the Nats are looking to put either one on the trading block). Meanwhile the Reds are so sold on Bray and Majewski that they've put out an APB for anyone who might be a major league reliever.

It's possible the two relievers will perform well enough to allow the Reds to emerge from the transaction with some dignity (Bray more than Majewski), but the deal is already a dog. Hopefully it's just a schnauzer and not a rottweiler.

corkedbat
02-19-2007, 10:53 PM
Here's a bit of what Jerry Narron had to say:

"We’re looking for Kyle Lohse to really break out and have a big year. Stuff-wise he’s as good as anybody. Just watching him on the side today, his changeup is outstanding. The big thing is if we can get him ahead in the count and throwing fewer pitches, I think he can be really effective. I know Dick Pole is looking forward to working with him."

Here is one spot where there's an opportunity for the Reds to improve without acquiring another pitcher or counting on Bailey. I think that the raw talent to be a solid #3 starter is there with Lohse, I don't know if he's capable of harnessing it. This is an opportunity for Pole to make an immediate impact.

I'd be thrilled if we could get solid seasons out of Harang, Arroyo and Lohse. Get several decent starts out of Milton and deal him at the break in favor of Bailey and get a league-average season out of Sarloos (or whoever is in the five hole). I'd love to find a promising youg lefty by this time next year too.

Spitball
02-21-2007, 01:20 AM
M2, I guess we are both entitled to our own opinions.

Boss-Hog
02-21-2007, 08:11 AM
Let's keep the debates amicable, please.

Chip R
02-21-2007, 09:46 AM
I think Majewski's going to get cut on here in the near future. First they are holding him back a few days, then it'll be a week or so and then it'll be that he's staying in FLA for extended ST and then we'll find out he has an appointment with Dr. K.