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View Full Version : My plan for Homer.



Willy
02-19-2007, 10:17 PM
I hope the Reds don't have Bailey log to many inning this spring. Assuming that he gets called up sometime this season and he pitches till October he could very easily log over 220 inning this year if you take his spring into account.

I wouldn't have him on the same throwing program as the rest of the pitchers. He would be doing a lot of PFP and flat ground work until about March 14, then I would let him throw off the mound, maybe just maybe he would get in a game the last week of ST.

I would keep him in extended spring til late April, then send him to AAA for a month or two. I would call him up in June or July. This would allow the Reds to keep his innings down, and still allow him to pitch til late September or even October.

No way should the Reds have this kid going lights out from March to September. Tell him NOW that he has no chance at the big club til June. Keep that arm young, fresh and healthy as long as you can.

dougdirt
02-19-2007, 10:24 PM
There is no way he gets close to 220 innings. That would require him to throw about 50 innings in ST. Krivsky has said that he likes to move pitchers up about 30 innings per year. Last year Bailey threw 140 innings (roughly, I think it was actually 138.2), so the plan for him is to probably throw 170 innings this year. Last year Bailey also threw in ST, and not just in Reds ST, he pitched in regular ST for the minor leaguers too. I understand wanting to keep him healthy, but babying him to death is not going to help him develop. He needs time facing professional hitters to help him get a better understanding of how to pitch.... he isnt going to get that in extended spring training, he is going to get that by throwing in big league camp, and to a lesser extent throwing to AAAA hitters in the International League.

Willy
02-19-2007, 10:36 PM
I'm not babying him, I just want to make sure he hits his 170 inning limit Sept. 30th not August 31st.

Highlifeman21
02-19-2007, 10:44 PM
I hope Homer throws 170 innings in AAA this year.

Let's look towards 2008 with open arms.

Let's close the book on 2007.

dougdirt
02-20-2007, 12:49 AM
I'm not babying him, I just want to make sure he hits his 170 inning limit Sept. 30th not August 31st.

I honestly believe they would shut him down before letting him throw an extra 25 innings in September if he hit 170 by August 31.

Triples
02-20-2007, 10:31 AM
I know that the number of innings is a general benchmark but won't it depend a lot on his pitch count. If he is averaging less than 100 pitches per 9 innings wouldn't his arm be capable of handling more inning towards the end of the year. Likewise, I think the pitch count is why they will start him off at AAA this year. It will give him the opportunity to get in innings (i.e. get experiece) at a level where there is a lesser likelihood that he will run up his pitch count. The presumption here would be that he would have to pitch harder, throw more pitches per batter in the ML level that at the AAA level.

But then again who knows,.... neither Narron or Krivsky has felt it necessary to call me to get my opinion on what to do with Bailey.

dougdirt
02-20-2007, 11:30 AM
I am positive Homer will be on a pitch count. He has been since he began. He had to leave 2 seperate no hitters last season due to his pitch count. I would imagine his pitch count probably gets bumped up to 100 pitches this year from the 95 it was last year. Something small, but enough to make a little bit of a difference.

Willy
02-20-2007, 08:49 PM
I honestly believe they would shut him down before letting him throw an extra 25 innings in September if he hit 170 by August 31.

Do you really see the Reds doing that if they are in the middle of a playoff chase?

dougdirt
02-20-2007, 09:13 PM
Yes, I do. As a downer of a side note, I doubt the Reds are anywhere near a playoff chase this year.

bucksfan2
02-21-2007, 12:13 PM
When do you let homer lose? When do you let him learn how to get that out when he is tired? You can baby him all you want but sooner or later he needs to learn how to pitch when he gets up there in a pitch count.

dougdirt
02-21-2007, 12:17 PM
When do you let homer lose? When do you let him learn how to get that out when he is tired? You can baby him all you want but sooner or later he needs to learn how to pitch when he gets up there in a pitch count.

When he is 23 or 24, has built up his arm strength. Homer is not 21 years old yet. He is still growing.

Z-Fly
02-21-2007, 01:30 PM
When he is 23 or 24, has built up his arm strength. Homer is not 21 years old yet. He is still growing.

I think people often forget that he is as young as he is. We have been hearing about him turning the franchise around since he was 17.

Don't worry everyone. He will be a good pitcher and will be here eventually. You just have to wait till its time. I would like to see him stay in AAA all year. It will help in many differnt ways.

I think we all saw what happened to Prior and Wood when they were not "babyed". As well as some of the other reds pitching prospects.

bucksfan2
02-21-2007, 05:23 PM
I think we all saw what happened to Prior and Wood when they were not "babyed". As well as some of the other reds pitching prospects

I see more of a problem with not babying prior than wood. Prior was rushed to the majors. Wood's problem probably had more to do with his delivery and his reliance on the hook. The only problem with babying Homer that I see is you learn how to pitch when you dont have your best stuff. Or you are tired and need to get an out or two. You dont learn that on a pitch count and you dont learn that by facing sub par competition. I have no problem with him staying in the minors for a while but I would like him facing good competition at some point this year.