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View Full Version : Anyone got info on the top 2007 draft prospects?



RedEye
02-20-2007, 01:06 AM
I've heard here and there that this draft class is top notch, but I can't get into any of the sites that run down the top 100. I thought I'd post a query here since some of you may have more resources than I do.

Has anyone been sizing up the draft class for this year? Seems the Reds have quite a few picks in the early going. Who do you think they will target? Which players might be available at #15 and #34? What about the other top picks?

Thanks in advance for any inside information you can offer.

dougdirt
02-20-2007, 01:29 AM
Its so early that right now no one really knows. Example, last year Clayton Kershaw preseason was projected as a late 2nd-early 3rd round pick. He went absolutely nuts his Sr year in high school and some of the other projected top guys didnt perform so well. Kershaw ended up going 7th overall to the Dodgers.

With that said, Here is what I have been able to find.
From Brewerfan.net


Rank Name Pos B/T H/W NCAA/HS School/State Comments
01 Wieters, Matt C S/R 6-6/230 College Georgia Tech Athletic switch-hitting catcher with polished bat, power arm
02 Price, David LHP L/L 6-5/215 College Vanderbilt Tall lefty with a power repertoire, favorite to go 1st overall in '07
03 Vitters, Josh 3B R/R 6-3/190 High School Cypress (CA) Polished all-around hitter that has hit the best in the nation with a wood bat
04 Brackman, Andrew RHP R/R 6-9/235 College NC State Skyscraper RHP with mid-90s heater
05 Burgess, Michael RF L/L 5-11/200 High School Hillsborough (FL) Incredibly powerful RF prospect with a cannon for an arm
06 Heyward, Jason 1B L/L 6-4/220 High School Henry County (GA) Tall and strong 1B/corner OF prospect with exciting power potential
07 Porcello, Rick RHP R/R 6-5/195 High School Seton Hall Prep (NJ) Projectable & smooth righty with power arsenal
08 Jackson, Justin SS R/R 6-2/175 High School TC Roberson (NC) 5-tool SS with great glove, developing bat
09 Harvey, Matt RHP R/R 6-4/195 High School Fitch (CT) Power RHP with silky smooth delivery
10 Arencibia, J.P. C R/R 6-1/195 College Tennessee Slugging catcher with advanced offensive skills
11 Mills, Beau 1B L/R 6-3/205 College Lewis & Clark State Powerful left-handed hitter and natural run producer
12 Ramirez, Neil RHP R/R 6-3/190 High School Kempsville (VA) Extremely polished righty with solid repertoire
13 Doolittle, Sean 1B L/L 6-3/185 College Virginia Polished hitter and pitcher, scouts split on future destination
14 Savery, Joe LHP L/L 6-3/215 College Rice Two-way talent with power arm, bat
15 Robles, Tanner LHP L/L 6-4/190 High School Cottonwood (UT) Tall and athletic lefty with power arsenal
16 Fields, Josh CL R/R 6-0/185 College Georgia Tech Dynamic closer with mid 90s heat & wicked slider
17 Mangini, Matt 3B L/R 6-4/222 College Oklahoma State Pure hitting 3B with gap power
18 Schmidt, Nick LHP L/L 6-5/220 College Arkansas Tall, projectable lefty with good stuff
19 Davis, Kentrail CF L/R 5-9/195 High School Theodore (AL) Short & stocky outfielder with good speed - power combo
20 McGeary, Jack LHP L/L 6-3/200 High School Roxbury Latin (MA) Projectable and athletic LHP with great control and solid stuff
21 Alderson, Tim RHP R/R 6-7/210 High School Horizon (AZ) Tall yet polished righty with good repertoire
22 Augenstein, Bryan RHP R/R 6-5/225 College Florida Tall & strong RHP with nice power pitches
23 Beaven, Blake RHP R/R 6-6/200 High School Irving (TX) Big, strong and tall RHP with power stuff
24 Borbon, Julio CF L/L 6-1/180 College Tennessee Prototypical leadoff hitting CF
25 Moskos, Daniel LHP R/L 6-2/205 College Clemson Powerful lefty with mid-90s heater as a closer
26 St. Clair, Cole LHP L/L 6-5/225 College Rice Tall lefty closer that has enough stuff to be tried as starter
27 Main, Michael RHP R/R 6-2/180 High School Deland (FL) Fire-balling athletic righty that continually wows scouts
28 Brown, Corey CF L/L 6-2/210 College Oklahoma State Big, chiseled outfielder with exciting offensive tools
29 Arrieta, Jake RHP R/R 6-4/225 College Texas Christian RHP with workhorse frame and power arsenal
30 Peavey, Greg RHP R/R 6-2/185 High School Hudson's Bay (WA) Established NW RHP with good polish, natural movement


From Scout.com

1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays David Price, LHP, B:L T:L, 6’5, 215, Vanderbilt

Heading into the 2007 college and prep seasons, David Price is the easiest player to project as a dominant major leaguer. He has got the size (6’5, 215 lbs.), the stuff (91-95 mph, touching 97 with a hard slider and a promising change-up) and the stats (115 K in 110 IP as a sophomore at Vanderbilt, 5-1, 0.20 ERA with 61 K in 44 IP for Team USA ). Price has a smooth delivery he repeats well and is one of the hardest workers in college baseball. At this point there really aren’t any major questions about Price’s future on the mound. He will need to stay away from injuries and could use some improvement on his command, but for a 21-year-old he has everything going for him.

The Devil Rays have an incredibly deep farm system, but if anything is lacking it’s probably in the area of top-of-the-rotation starters (of course, what system is flush with those?). Price is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay and could earn a spot in their big league rotation by mid-2008.

2. Kansas City Royals Cole St.Clair, LHP, L-L, 6’5, 225, Rice

Another team whose minor league talent is distributed heavily among its position players, the Royals will be looking for a bookend starter to pair with last year’s number one pick, right-hander Luke Hochevar. With so many talented lefties to choose from, it makes sense for Kansas City to take advantage of the draft’s biggest strength. They will consider Rice’s Joe Savery and Missouri State’s Ross Detwiler, but will eventually settle on Savery’s teammate, Cole St. Clair.

In his first two years at Rice, St. Clair worked almost exclusively in relief thanks to a rubber arm that can go every day of every weekend. His cumulative stat line for 2005 and 2006 is outstanding: 69 appearances, 74 hits allowed, a 162/38 K/BB and a 2.37 ERA in 121 IP. His improvement from one season to the next is also striking, as he gave up 35 hits in 47 IP as a freshman, then 39 in 74 1/3 IP as a sophomore, including two starts. He followed that spectacular spring with a nearly perfect summer pitching for Team USA (4-0, 0.69 ERA with 43 K in 26 IP).

The Owls plan to give St. Clair either the Friday or Saturday starter’s role in 2007, depending on the health of Joe Savery’s arm. I expect St. Clair to excel as a starting pitcher, and with his sturdy frame, consistent 90-93 mph fastball that can touch 96 when he needs it, as well as a hard-breaking 10-to-4 curveball, he will shoot up watch lists and become the second best lefty option in the draft.

3. Chicago Cubs Matt Wieters, C, S-R, 6’4, 205, Georgia Tech

Matt Wieters is the kind of all-around athlete who looks like he’s playing a different game than other college players. As a sophomore for the Yellow Jackets, he hit .355/.480/.606 with 15 homers. Even more impressive was the fact that he walked (56) more than he struck out (39). He also earned seven saves as the team’s closer using a mid-90s fastball.

A switch-hitter, Wieters already shows big league power to all parts of the yard. He makes consistent contact, as evidenced by his low K-rate, and he can wait for a pitch to drive. Defensively, he still has a lot of work to do, and he would probably benefit from an intense agility training program to improve his footwork and mobility behind the plate. His arm strength will never be a problem, so how hard he works will determine whether his future is at catcher or first base. Either way, his bat will carry him to the bigs.

With no catchers in their system who look like sure-fire big league stars, the Cubs will jump at the chance to grab Wieters.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates Matt Harvey, RHP, R-R, 6’4, 195, Fitch HS, Groton, CT

Projecting high school pitchers before they start their senior seasons is a dodgy proposition. Last year both Jordan Waldman and Matt Latos looked primed to be early first round picks, but their respective senior seasons brought up projection questions which led to them sliding in the draft.

Matt Harvey is this year’s Jordan Waldman. He throws in the mid-90s with good consistency, touching 96 mph at times but working comfortably at 93. His curve is advanced for a prep pitcher, with a sharp, downward break, and his delivery and ability to set-up hitters make him a very polished talent. In this way, he has a better shot to maintain his draft stock through his senior season than did Walden, who seemed overwhelmed by expectations after shooting up draft boards so quickly the year before.

Pittsburgh is in the very familiar position of needing talent at all positions and all minor league levels. Their best bet is to use the fourth overall pick to take an impact talent, and Harvey will provide them with a great deal of upside.

5. Baltimore Orioles Justin Jackson, SS, R-R, 6’2, 175, T.C. Roberson HS, Asheville, NC

The Orioles don’t have much in the way of impact shortstop prospects in their system, but they do have a couple of guys who project as passable there. Justin Jackson will give them an heir to the Cal Ripken/Miguel Tejada legacy.

A senior at Ashville, North Carolina ’s TC Roberson High School, Jackson is already a premium defender up the middle. Unlike, say, the Padres’ 2004 first rounder Matt Bush, he has the physical tools to be a very good hitter, as well. His draft stock will hinge on how much he improves at the plate. It will take some adjustments to his swing, which is slow now but will improve as he fills out and improves his conditioning. A scout at the Perfect Game Nationals last June compared him to B.J. Upton in terms of build and fluidity. While he is unlikely to match Upton ’s offensive stats as a senior, I expect a strong showing at the plate in 2007, which would push him into the draft’s top-10.

6. Washington Nationals Ross Detwiler, LHP, R-L, 6’4, 180, Missouri State

I really, really like Detwiler. His 2007 season at Missouri State (2.81 ERA, 73 HA and 99 K in 93 IP) was solid and established him as a talent to watch. His performance for Team USA (2-0, 0.90 ERA with 22 K in 19 IP) cemented his stock in scouts’ eyes, and if he continues improving in 2007, he’s going to find himself among the top-10 selections.

The most impressive part of Detwiler’s game is the movement he gets on his pitches. He will need to improve his mechanics, which sometimes look herky-jerky, and high level instruction will only help him in that area. Both his fastball and his curve have late life and look like they dart away from bats at the very last instant. While his heater sits in the lows 90s right now, he has a build that will help him add velocity when (and if) he adds strength.

Even with some excellent additions last year via the draft and Latin America , the Nationals have one of the worst farm systems in the majors; any help will be welcomed. Detwiler would give them a high-ceilinged lefty starter who, while not so advanced that he will rocket through the minors, will develop relatively quickly.

7. Milwaukee Brewers Rick Porcello, RHP, R-R, 6’5, 190, Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, NJ

By the time June rolls around, Rick Porcello could easily be the best prep pitching prospect eligible for the draft. As I write this, he is in the mix with Harvey, Neil Ramirez and Michael Main.

Porcello wows scouts with an explosive mid-90s fastball that appears to require almost no effort. His lanky build and projectable stuff reminds me of Justin Verlander, but Porcello will need to improve his breaking ball, a sharp but inconsistent curve, and his fledgling change. In short, Porcello isn’t polished, but he has very real and attainable upside that could turn him into a number one starter somewhere down the line. While the Brewers are flush with right-handed pitching prospects, they won’t pass up a potential number one just because he isn’t a lefty. At the seventh slot, I feel that Porcello will be the best pitching prospect available and too hard for Milwaukee to pass on.

8. Colorado Rockies Michael Burgess, OF, L-L, 5’11, 195, Hillsborough High School, Tampa, FL

With one of the best farm systems in baseball, anything Colorado can add in the 2007 will be gravy. They have several very promising pitching prospects such as Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales and 2006 first rounder Greg Reynolds, not to mention the recently-acquired Jason Hirsh and the big league-proven Jeff Francis. Where they lack depth is in the outfield, where only Dexter Fowler looks likely to develop into an impact bat.

With this in mind, the Rockies will pay close attention to the outfielders available in the 2007 draft. The cream of the crop in terms of upside is easily Michael Burgess. At 5’11 he isn’t physically imposing, but his bat speed is so good that he can hit the ball out all over the field. He is also a very good baserunner despite not being exceptionally fast. In terms of body type, he reminds me a lot of A’s prospect Richie Robnett, though Burgess is much farther along at this point in his career than was Robnett when the A’s took him in 2004.

With the toolsy Fowler destined to play in centerfield, Burgess will slot into rightfield nicely. His cannon arm and above-average speed will give the Rockies a very formidable corner defender, while his offensive skills will give them a number three hitter who will hit for average and power with enough patience to post an OBP of .380 or better.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks Neil Ramirez, RHP, R-R, 6’3, 190, Kempsville High School, VA

Like Porcello, Neil Ramirez enters his senior season as one of the top-four prep pitchers in the draft. He set himself apart this summer by pitching for Team USA’s junior national team and competing in the Cal Ripken Sr. College League. He performed well there and gave scouts a look at how his stuff stacks up against older, more experienced players using wood bats.

Ramirez’s stuff is a click below Porcello’s, Harvey’s and Main’s, but he’s the most polished of the bunch. He commands three pitches, starting with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can jump to the mid-90s once in awhile. His change-up is average now but flashes plus potential, while his curve is already solid pitch that is particularly effective because he throws it at three distinct speeds depending on the hitter and the count.

Arizona will prepare for the draft knowing that they have one of the best collections of prospects in the game. Ramirez will give them a guy who currently projects as a number two starter and might develop into an ace with a little luck.

10. San Francisco Giants Julio Borbon, OF, L-L, 6’1, 190, Tennessee

For Borbon, the Johnny Damon comparisons have already begun. They’re about the same size, though Borbon is probably a bit more muscular. They both play the speed game well, including aggressive baserunning and superior range in centerfield. And, unfortunately, they both have weak throwing arms that cause people sitting in the stands to look at each other in disbelief.

Still, Borbon is the type of player that seems to be increasingly rare with each passing year: a legitimate leadoff man who can create offense at the top of the lineup while offering game-changing defense up the middle. His game needs refinement, as his blazing speed has not translated to reliable baserunning due to what several scouts have called a lack of instincts. He gets picked off too often and does not read pitchers well at present, but rest assured that his pro career will include top-notch tutelage in this area.

At the plate he is working on being more selective. He only walked 19 times in 2006 but still managed to post a 366/.412/.481 line. Plate discipline will be a problem in the pros if he doesn’t start addressing it now. On the plus side, he is probably the best bunter in the draft, which gives him another on-base tool that will help him generate offense.

It would be conceivable that the Giants would place a premium on outfield defense considering they play in spacious AT&T Park , but with the statue that is Barry Bonds taking up leftfield they’ve started every season one-third of the way toward a defensive nightmare. Adding players who are closer to collecting Social Security than to their Major League debuts doesn’t help matters. Still, Borbon is a perfect fit for Brian Sabean, who is likely wondering if his organization will ever develop another premium offensive talent on his watch. Borbon is a good match who will move quickly. One caveat is that Borbon recently broke his right ankle. The recovery time is six to eight weeks. Depending on how he quickly he recovers, the injury could affect his status in the draft.

11. Seattle Mariners Matt Mangini, 3B, L-R, 6’4, 220, Oklahoma State

A third baseman who bats from the left side of the plate and projects as a middle-of-the-order hitter is a rarity, but that’s exactly what Matt Mangini will bring to the team that selects him this June. There is some similarity to Kansas City 3B Mark Teahen, who came out of college with the physical size to be an impact hitter, but who had not yet shown it in game situations at the time of the draft.

Mangini’s swing is picturesque, resulting in line drives to all corners of the ballpark. His bat speed has scouts salivating because it suggests that he will hit for more power as he gains experience and fills out. The downside here is that he is not a good defender at the third base and may wind up at first base or at a corner outfield position. He has already proven that he can hit with a wood bat by winning the Cape Cod League batting title last summer, so the biggest question mark entering 2007 centers on his glove.

If there’s a team out there that thinks he can stick at 3B, Mangini will wind up going early. The Mariners third base cupboard is bare right now, and Mangini’s advanced hitting ability makes for a good match with Seattle. With enough work on his defense and a year or two to grow into his power, Mangini could hit Seattle when Adrian Beltre’s contract expires after 2009.

12. Florida Marlins Josh Vitters, 3B, R-R, 6’3, 190, Cypress High School, California

Josh Vitters, brother of A’s farmhand Christian Vitters (10th round, 2006) turned a lot of heads with his impressive summer showing at various national showcase events. Using a simple, upright set-up at the plate, he tore the cover off the ball at the Area Code Games in Long Beach, earning top prospect honors from Baseball America. Later that week, Vitters absolutely raked at the AFLAC Classic, tallying three doubles, three RBI and two runs scored. In short, Vitters cemented himself as a preseason first round talent.

The Marlins are currently very deep in pitching prospects but don’t have much in the way of promising position players. That they’ll be looking for a premium hitter early is obvious, and the only way I can see them passing on Vitters is if a guy like Porcello or Harvey falls to them. Since I’m betting on those guys going in the top-10, I think they’ll be happy to add a hitter who projects as a legitimate power-and-average third baseman.

If Vitters has a weakness, it is his lack of plate discipline. He is very aggressive, but so far it hasn’t hurt him because he centers the ball so well. He’s probably the best pure hitter in the draft, but taking more pitches will likely be one of the first things he is told to work on in the pros. Defensively, he has a strong, accurate arm and soft hands. He tends to make errors on routine plays, but scouts don’t seem worried about it turning into a long-term problem for him.

13. Cleveland Indians Daniel Moskos, LHP, R-L, 6’2, 200, Clemson

The Indians have spent most of the 2006-2007 off-season trying to build a deep bullpen in hopes that they will improve their team’s 2006 Achilles heel. Regardless of how all their recent acquisitions work out, Cleveland’s eyes are open to the importance of a deep bullpen, as well as the dangers of bouncing their farmhands back and forth between starting and relieving. When they see Daniel Moskos available at 13, I think they’ll jump at the chance to call his name.

Moskos enters the 2007 college season as the draft’s number one relief prospect, as well as the player most likely to reach the big leagues first. His two-pitch arsenal is big league ready right now, with a 94-96 mph fastball that runs into left-handed hitters and away from righties. His slider is also a plus pitch, and Moskos has the confidence in it to throw it to both lefties and righties. He used both to great effect for Team USA last summer after posting a brilliant 2.52 ERA with 14 saves and 54 K in 54 IP at Clemson.

Most importantly, Moskos is fearless on the mound and loves taking the ball with the game on the line. He could be a September call-up in 2007, and, at worst, he will be pitching in a big league bullpen early in 2008. A young, electric lefty would have done wonders for the Tribe last year…

14. Atlanta Braves Michael Main, RHP, R-R, 6’2, 185, DeLand High School, Florida

Michael Main has dominating stuff right now and could turn out to be the highest-rated prep pitcher in the 2007 draft when June rolls around. Right now, the questions that face Main relate to his lack of experience and innings as a starting pitcher and a high-effort delivery that almost hurts to watch. If he doesn’t answer these questions with consistently impressive starts, scouts will begin profiling him exclusively as a relief prospect. While he can still have a great career pitching out of a bullpen, his draft stock is linked to his ability to start because his strengths are so rare among starting pitchers.

Those strengths are nothing to scoff at. Main can dial his fastball up to 100 mph on occasion and sits comfortably in the 94-97 mph range. Unfortunately, he is always aware of radar guns in the vicinity and sometimes worries too much about lighting them up. He throws his curve hard, gaining a sharp, downward break, while his change is already an out-pitch thanks to his deceptive arm action and delivery.

There is little doubt that Main has the stuff to be a dominant starter. The Braves are always on the lookout for high-ceilinged prep pitchers, and their close proximity to Main’s high school won’t hurt their ability to keep tabs on him throughout his senior season. Even minor struggles, which I fully expect in this case, might not be enough for the Atlanta organization to pass on his upside.

15. Cincinnati Reds Matt Dominguez, 3B, R-R, 6’2, 180, Chatsworth High School, California

Dominguez and fellow prep 3B Vitters followed each other around last summer, one-upping one another in one showcase event after another. Their similar size and skill sets will probably link them in scouts’ minds for years to come, but when it comes down to it Vitters is a step ahead at this point. The difference isn’t huge though. While Vitters has better raw power than Dominguez, the latter has better speed and is farther along defensively with a slightly better arm. Dominguez is also a tick faster on the bases.

The Reds farm system is pitching heavy right now, and as they lean toward prep players with early-round selections, Dominguez will be a good pick here. He has the ability to play third base in the majors, but also has the athleticism and arm strength to make a smooth transition to a corner outfield spot.

16. Toronto Blue Jays Joe Savery, LHP, L-L, 6’3, 215, Rice

Savery is Rice’s most experienced starting pitcher heading into the 2007 season, and under normal circumstances would be a lock to be their Friday starter. Unfortunately for all involved, Savery hurt his shoulder last year and wound up sitting out the entire summer schedule. Many figured the Owls would ease him into action this year, and so far that looks like the plan considering he’s slated to start the season as the team’s Sunday starter.

In terms of talent, Savery is ahead of teammate St. Clair right now. He’s made more starts and has proven that he can maintain his stuff deep into games, whereas St. Clair has only made two starts in college to date. Savery’s shoulder problem evens things up a bit, but if he’s healthy he’ll be throwing his usual low- to mid-90s sinking fastball and electric, 90 mph slider that leaves hitters wide-eyed and shaking their heads. If scouts see that version of Savery, you could easily swap their positions in this draft.

What I suspect will happen is that Savery will take a handful of starts to build his arm strength to the point where he can unleash his best stuff. After that he’ll need time to get back in the groove against top collegiate competition. By the end of the year, he’ll be back to his nasty self, but along the way he will have fallen behind St. Clair as the most projectable starting pitcher, leaving him as a great option for the Blue Jays.

17. Texas Rangers Beau Mills, 3B, L-R, 6’3, 200, Lewis-Clark State

Right now the Texas Rangers farm system is all pitching. For the last two off-seasons they’ve discussed Hank Blalock with several teams, probably due to a growing concern that his offensive decline is going to continue. Without a back-up plan in the minors, the Rangers are going to need to find a replacement via trade or free agency – especially if Blalock’s OPS keeps dropping toward the .700 mark. If, however, a suitable option presents itself in the draft, they could settle for a one or two-year replacement to bridge the gap between Blalock and the draft pick.

Beau Mills might be that option. He is polished lefty power-threat who probably won’t hit for a high average but will definitely put up impressive on-base and slugging percentages. He takes pitches and controls the zone fairly well while showing plus power to all fields. He can also play a fair third base and could become and above average defender at the big league level.

Mills did run into some trouble last year when he was declared academically ineligible near the end of Fresno State’s season. He did take responsibility for his academic issues and seems ready to avoid future difficulties now that he’s transferred to Lewis-Clark for his junior season.

18. St. Louis Cardinals Jake Arrieta, RHP, R-R, 6’4, 225, Texas Christian

Arrieta offers an intriguing combination of size and stuff. While he doesn’t have an overpowering fastball like some of the higher-ranked pitchers in the 2007 draft class, he does offer more consistency with his stuff than most. The fastball is always between 90 and 92 mph, and he’s shown that he can maintain his velocity deep into every single start. That talent isn’t as flashy as a 99 mph heater, but lots of guys who show velocity spikes like that also fall off for stretches during a long season. Whatever organization drafts Arrieta likely won’t have to worry about that.

His consistency is derived from a big, sturdy pitcher’s frame and a wind-up similar to that of Roger Clemens. Arrieta found it difficult to maintain his control near the end of the 2006 circuit, during which he threw a career-high 145 innings (including 111 at TCU, where he posted a 14-4, 2.35 ERA with 111 K), but control is not considered a big issue for him. His slider is turning into a big-time out pitch, and his change shows promise. The thing that keeps him from being mentioned as a top-10 candidate is his lack of eye-popping radar readings. In the end I think he’ll be a fast mover in the pro ranks, with a shot at being a very solid number two starter.

The Cardinals, having no impact starting pitching prospects in their system, will probably be thinking pitcher with their first pick this June. If Arrieta can post another solid campaign at TCU, he’s a good bet for this team and this slot.

19. Philadelphia Phillies Kentrail Davis, OF, L-R, 5’10, 195, Theodore (Ala.) HS

Philadelphia’s high end prospects are almost all pitchers, an imbalance that they’ll need to address in the early rounds of the draft. They have shown over the years that they are unafraid of selecting high-ceiling high school players and waiting for them to develop. Greg Golson’s lack of progress to date won’t stop them from continuing this trend, and with Kentrail Davis on the board, I think the Phillies will be happy to call his name.

Davis has been compared by some scouts to Dave Roberts – fast, with a smooth lefty swing – but I see him showing more power than Roberts has ever shown. Therefore, some of the “fourth outfielder” talk I’ve heard and read in regard to Davis doesn’t make sense to me. A guy who can hit 15-20 homers and steal 30-40 bases will find a spot in any lineup. He may not have the range to be a shutdown centerfielder, but he’ll be passable at the very least. What impresses most people about Davis is that he shows great enthusiasm for competition and constantly pushes himself to get better. Sounds like someone Philly fans will embrace, doesn’t it?

20. Los Angeles Dodgers Phillippe Aumont, RHP, R-R, 6’5, 210, Ecole Du Versant HS

Every year it seems like the Dodgers dip into the prep pitching ranks to extract a gem of a prospect. Last year, it was Clayton Kershaw who, when all is said and done, may be the best pitcher from the 2006 draft class. This year there are a number of high school pitchers who look like they fit the Dodger organization’s specs, but I get the feeling that Quebec native Phillippe Aumont will be their guy in the first round.

Aumont’s only real drawback is his relative inexperience. He needs to improve his consistency, which will come naturally as he piles up innings. Beyond that, his stuff compares to any other prep pitcher in the draft. His size is a strength, as is his 95-97 mph fastball. Each of his pitches is tough for hitters to square up because Aumont throws them from a low three-quarters arm slot, allowing him to hide the ball a bit longer than most pitchers.

As a pro Aumont will have a very good shot at being a front-of-the-rotation starter. His lack of experience may be a concern for some organizations, but the Dodgers have plenty of experience developing high school pitchers, so they will not shy away.

21. Toronto Blue Jays Jason Heyward, OF, L-L, 6’4, 220, Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga.

Having already taken a high-end college pitcher, the Blue Jays may shift their focus to a high-ceiling prep player. Years ago they traded for a young first baseman named Fred McGriff, who went on to belt almost 500 big league homers. Jason Heyward has drawn comparisons to McGriff for the last two years thanks to his size, his lefty stroke and his power potential.

The best thing about Heyward is that, unlike McGriff, he won’t be limited to first base as a pro. Sporting an arm that has touched 90 mph during stints as a pitcher and above average speed, Heyward profiles as a very capable everyday rightfielder in the majors. He is also adept at working counts to get his pitch and won’t shy away from walks.

At present, his power is impressive even though he sprays hits from foul pole to foul pole. Once he learns how to turn on pitches consistently he’s going to be a monster power source for years to come. J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he will take a high school player in the right situation, and Heyward’s skill set will provide Toronto with just that situation.

22. San Francisco Giants Josh Fields, RHP, R-R, 6’0, 170, Georgia

With three picks in the first round, the Giants have a great opportunity to stock their farm system with high-end talent. Already having taken college outfielder Julio Borbon, the Giants will look to the pitching ranks with their next pick. The signing of Barry Zito is evidence that San Francisco is trying to contend now and for the next few years, so Georgia righty Josh Fields is a good fit.

Featuring a power fastball (95-98 mph)/slider ((87-89 mph) combination, Fields racked up 15 saves for the Bulldogs last year to go along with a 1.80 ERA, 56/11 K/BB and only 36 hits allowed in 50 IP. Later in the summer he saved another 13 games in the Cape Cod League. Suffice it to say that he is a born closer, with the mentality and physical tools to do the job well at the highest level.

He may not be the first reliever taken this year, but Fields has outperformed every other college reliever out there, including Daniel Moskos. Moskos has a bit more value because he’s left-handed and can be a solid reliever even if closing games doesn’t work out. Fields, however, has shown even more than Moskos so far and is arguably the best bullpen arm available in 2007. He’ll move fast and could be working out of the Giants’ bullpen by September.

23. San Diego Padres James Adkins, LHP, R-L, 6’6, 195, Tennessee

With Sandy Alderson at the top of the organization, you can bet that the Padres will be looking to go the college route with their first round selection yet again. The organization began a trend of college first rounders following the Matt Bush debacle of 2004, selecting RHP Cesar Carillo in 2005 and 3B Matt Antonelli in 2006. San Diego also took college players in the first round in each of the three years prior to 2004 (RHP Tim Stauffer in 2003, SS Khalil Greene in 2002 and 3B Jake Gautreau in 2001). Figuring that their system needs pitching more than position players, a starter is called for; in a draft so deep with college lefties, I think James Adkins is a great bet for this pick.

Pitching alongside 2006 #1 pick Luke Hochevar as a freshman, Adkins more than held his own. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (86-90 mph), and shoulder surgery (not structural, but to relieve and impingement) will probably keep him from adding velocity as he develops. He wound-up forgoing the Cape Cod League last summer in order to strengthen his arm. Early reports have him throwing at 90 mph, so it sounds like his plan worked. Along with the fastball, which he locates well, Adkins throws a curve, slider and change. The change needs work but reports on the curve and slider are very positive.

I see Adkins having a successful 2007 season, especially if the reports on his velocity are true. He is a smart pitcher with good mound presence who knows how to pitch to his strengths. If he’s healthy, he’ll provide the Padres with a nice combination of polish, performance and upside.

24. Texas Rangers Andrew Brackman, RHP, 7’0, 250, North Carolina State

Brackman had his 2006 season cut short after only seven starts when a fracture was discovered in his hip. He followed up his disappointing spring with a brief but successful stint in the Cape Cod League. His ERA was an impressive 1.06 in 17 IP over six appearances (two starts), but his K/BB ratio was an ugly 11/9.

Any team that takes Brackman right now is taking him based completely on projectability. His size – 7’0 tall (though he is listed at anywhere from 6’9 to 7’0 depending on what scouting report or player bio one reads), unprecedented for a baseball player – gives him an imposing presence on the mound; even more so when he runs his fastball up to 99 MPH. If he has a strong 2007 season, he’s going to be taken in the first ten picks, even with Scott Boras as his advisor. If there are signs that he hasn’t recovered from last year’s hip injury, or if he struggles to command his pitches again, he will probably fall to the bottom of the first round, and might drop even lower.

That being said, I expect Brackman to be healthy this year, but to have a so-so year in terms of performance. He just has too many questions to answer to convince scouts that he can reign in his body, command all three of his pitches and repeat his delivery consistent. I see him as this year’s Daniel Bard – streaky, but enticing when he’s on. It will be enough to get the Boras-friendly and pick-rich Rangers to call his name with the second of their two first-rounders.

25. Chicago White Sox Todd Frazier, SS, R-R, 6’4, 205, Rutgers

Todd Frazier may have the best set of tools in his draft class. And though his size may keep him from playing shortstop as a pro, he has the athleticism and the power potential to hold up anywhere a pro team might move him defensively. At this point, third base is his most likely destination, but I wouldn’t rule out a corner outfield spot.

The White Sox could go in any direction with their early selections this June because their best prospects reflect a nice balance between pitching and hitting. In my eyes, Frazier is a good match for their system because he offers a speed dimension to go along with his power and defensive flexibility. If he can stay at shortstop that will be even better, because the Sox lack a promising prospect at that position.

The knock on Frazier is that he hasn’t figured out how to translate his tools into performance on a consistent basis. He has long swing mechanics which could lead to a low contact rate in the pros, but when he centers a ball on his bat it can really travel. His plate discipline is above-average, which will serve him well. He’ll have adjustments to make, but I haven’t heard much concern that he won’t be able to make him.

26. Oakland Athletics Charlie Furbush, LHP, R-R, 6’5, 215, Louisiana State

After dominating Division III competition at St. Joseph’s in Maine (10-1, 2.89, 115/22 K/BB in 75 IP), Furbush carried his run of brilliance into the Cape Cod League last summer. Pitching for the Hyannis Mets, he went 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA and a 50/13 K/BB in 54 IP. His 12 K, no-hit performance against the Bourne Braves helped earn Furbush top prospect honors in the CCL.

The jump to Division I competition will be a challenge for Furbush, but he already proved he can play against top college players on the Cape. Throwing from a fastball that ranges from 89 to 91 mph and has touched 94, Furbush is not what one would consider a polished pitcher, but he does offer projectable size and a knack for finding ways to improve his game. He throws a curveball that seemed to get better and more consistent with each start last year. Several scouts already see it as a plus pitch, and with his physical upside he is a good candidate to add velocity to his fastball.

Louisiana State is in a transitional state and probably won’t offer him a chance to post a great won-loss record, but I expect stellar component stats nonetheless. His draft stock will rise and fall with his fastball and the development of a changeup. If he’s throwing 93 or better consistently and showing a decent change he could be a top 20 selection. If he’s still 89-91 with his usual excellent command he’ll be primed to begin his career in the Oakland organization.

27. Detroit Tigers J.P. Arencibia, C, R-R, 6’0, 210, Tennessee

Arencibia is a tough player to project due to his defensive liabilities. At the plate, there is little question that his power will translate to professional baseball. His catching abilities, on the other hand, have a long way to go before they’ll play in the big leagues. Arencibia boasts a very strong throwing arm and thus far it has kept his problems with footwork and agility hidden. He would benefit greatly from a conditioning program that focuses on agility exercises, because better movement behind the plate would make him an incredibly valuable commodity. There aren’t many catchers out there who can hit 20-30 homers and post a .300 average annually.

The Tigers will soon be entering their post-Pudge years, and at present are without an heir apparent at catcher. Arencibia would give them one, not to mention a potential middle-of-the-order hitter. In the end I see him becoming a serviceable catcher who can hit sixth in a lineup and produce above average numbers for the position. It will all depend on how hard he is willing to work in order to remain behind the plate.

28. Minnesota Twins Tanner Robles, LHP, L-L, 6’3, 190, Cottonwood HS, Salt Lake City

Was he named after Bad News Bears shortstop Tanner Boyle? I don’t know, but Robles is, in my opinion, the best prep lefty in this year’s draft. He’s drawn comparisons to Barry Zito due to his size, and his stuff is reminiscent of the stuff Zito had when Oakland drafted him in 1999: a big, looping curve and a fastball that sits in the 88-92 mph range. The difference is that Robles’s curve isn’t as strong as Zito’s, while his fastball can touch 95 at times and keeps its velocity deep into games.

The Twins are always on top of the prep pitching scene, and will see the chance to draft Robles as too good to pass up. Like Mike Pawelek, the last prep lefty from Utah to be taken in the first round, Robles profiles as a top-of-the-rotation starter with the physical size and talent to dominate games. He’ll have a good opportunity to fulfill that promise in a Minnesota organization that has great success developing pitchers.

29. San Francisco Giants Nick Schmidt, LHP, L-L, 6’5, 220, Arkansas

After taking an outfielder and a power reliever from the college ranks, the Giants will mine the college ranks once more with the selection of Arkansas lefty Nick Schmidt. In 2006, Schmidt showed excellent talent for striking hitters out, amassing 145 K in 117 IP to go with a 9-3 record and 3.01 ERA. His performance won him recognition as the SEC’s Pitcher of the Year – as a sophomore.

The future for Schmidt could be as a number two starter, but his inconsistency has some scouts worried that he won’t be much more than a number four starter who can eat innings. I tend to think of him as the former. His fastball is a standard 88-92 mph, which he uses to set up a solid slider and change. He’s a smart pitcher who has gained a reputation as a battler.

Like many of the pitchers in the draft, Schmidt isn’t a big reach to perform well enough in 2007 to push himself into the top half of the first round. I think he’ll have his ups and downs like he has in the past when his velocity dipped and he experienced control problems. It won’t be enough for teams to get down on him, because a lot of this will take care of itself as he improves his conditioning and gains experience.

30. New York Yankees Madison Bumgarner, LHP, R-L, 6’5, 220, South Caldwell High School, North Carolina

If Bumgarner had a breaking pitch, he’d probably be a top-10 pick this year. He doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean the list of things he does have going for him is anywhere near short. At the top of the list is his classic pitcher’s frame, which produces a free and easy 95 mph fastball. His command of that pitch is already top-notch. Hopefully he will use his senior season at South Caldwell to work on perfecting an off-speed offering of some sort – preferably a slider and a change-up. If either one shows promise, the other will merely need to be average to push him higher up draft boards across the nation.

Until he shows that development, he’s more likely to be taken late in the first round or somewhere in the sandwich round. The Yankees are pitching-rich at their upper levels, but a lefty with Bumgarner’s potential is rare. If they see in him a pitcher who could one day be a number one starter with the right instruction, they’ll pop him here.

Other players worth watching from the 2007 draft class:

Greg Peavey, RHP, Hudson’s Bay High School, WA
Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon High School, Scottsdale, AZ
Jack McGeary, LHP, Roxbury Latin High School, MA
John Tolisano, 2B/SS, Estero High School, FL
Sean Doolittle, LHP, Virginia
Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State
Josh Smoker, LHP, Calhoun High School, GA
Mitch Canham, C, Oregon State
Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn
Nick Noonan, SS, Francis Parker High School, San Diego, CA
Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell High School, IN
James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
Erik Goeddel, RHP, Bellarmine Prep, San Jose, CA
Josh Horton, SS, North Carolina
Nolan Gallagher, RHP, Stanford
Sequoyah Stonecipher, OF, Mission Bay High School, San Diego, CA
Mike Ambort, C, Lamar
Brad Meyers, RHP, Loyola Marymount

If I can find anymore, I will post it in here.

icehole3
02-20-2007, 01:10 PM
Matt Dominguez is he a better pick than say Stubbs was or is?

lollipopcurve
02-20-2007, 01:59 PM
Supposedly it's a very deep group of LHPs this year.

Scrap Irony
02-20-2007, 02:36 PM
Todd Frazier is similar to Stubbs, though Frazier has more pop and plays a more demanding (and desireable) position.

If Stubbs were entering this draft, I'd guess he'd be a high 2nd round pick. Perhaps low First Round.

For my money, at this point, I'd center on college pitching with the 15th pick (I like Fields, Atkins, and Furbush from below the Red pick much better than Domingues), then look for some offensive pop with the lower picks. I really hope JP Arencibia falls into that supplimental pick, as offensive catchers are as rare as hen's teeth.

lollipopcurve
02-20-2007, 02:55 PM
I really hope JP Arencibia falls into that supplimental pick, as offensive catchers are as rare as hen's teeth.

Current rankings indicate that's unlikely, but you never know how things will look in June. Remember, though, that this regime favors defense up the middle, so I don't see Arencibia as a guy they'd take. I do look for them to take a defense-first college catcher early, though.

Superdude
02-20-2007, 05:10 PM
I posted the stats for most of the college players a couple weeks ago. It's probably still on here somewhere.

AdamDunn
02-20-2007, 06:52 PM
15. Justin Jackson
34. Tim Alderson

That's what I hope for.

edabbs44
02-20-2007, 08:39 PM
I am hoping for the best college pitchers on the board. Of course, if a can't miss bat (B-A-T, not glove) slips through, I'm all ears.

Superdude
02-21-2007, 09:39 PM
What's the love for Julio Borbon? Since when do speedy slap hitters with mediocre patience warrant a top 10 pick?

My favorites right now are Beau Mills, J.P. Arencibia, and Joe Savery. Of course this time last year Jordan Walden looked like an OK pick at #8, so who knows.

mound_patrol
02-21-2007, 10:17 PM
I can attest to how good Detwiler is from Missouri State. He absolutely destroyed us last year. Had good command and the life on his pitchers were amazing. Our hitters were just shaking their heads walking back to the dugout. Would love to see him slip down to us.

Superdude
02-21-2007, 11:13 PM
Detwiler's stuff sounds pretty sweet. It'd be tough to imagine him at #15 if his control improves any next season.

LoganBuck
02-22-2007, 12:31 AM
Detwiler's stuff sounds pretty sweet. It'd be tough to imagine him at #15 if his control improves any next season.

Money talks. Some agents let their clients take walks. Every year a player tabbed to go high drops because of signing demands, Boras, injury worries, etc. It is nice to see that there should be a very attractive player available around #15.

Outshined_One
02-22-2007, 11:15 AM
15. Justin Jackson

That's a bit of a stretch at this point. Boras clients in HS very rarely come to terms with the teams that draft them.

flyer85
02-22-2007, 11:18 AM
I'd take Brackman every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Shaknb8k
02-22-2007, 11:25 AM
I havent found a better Draft Prospect site as what Minor League Baseball.com has going on right now with their draft reports. Seems like they will be adding players every week too.

Here it is
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070221&content_id=180443&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

Outshined_One
02-22-2007, 02:39 PM
The fact that Wieters is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Adam Dunn amazes me. Seriously, how can someone with that kind of body have the ability to stick behind the dish?

Yeah, I know agility and whatnot are different for the two, but still, sheesh.

Thanks for the milb.com link Shaknb8k!

LoganBuck
02-22-2007, 03:25 PM
I'd take Brackman every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Brackman would be fantastic, but I really worry about his durability. There have been a slew of pitchers with his frame going back to Ryan Anderson aka The Little Unit, most have been derailed by injuries. There are lots of moving parts associated with these ultra tall pitchers. I would be more leary of drafting a pitcher 6'7" and over. That just seems to be the dividing line. You might argue your typical high school arm is more likely to pan out then a super tall pitcher.

dougdirt
02-22-2007, 03:35 PM
Brackman would be fantastic, but I really worry about his durability. There have been a slew of pitchers with his frame going back to Ryan Anderson aka The Little Unit, most have been derailed by injuries. There are lots of moving parts associated with these ultra tall pitchers. I would be more leary of drafting a pitcher 6'7" and over. That just seems to be the dividing line. You might argue your typical high school arm is more likely to pan out then a super tall pitcher.

Most taller pitchers end up having back problems before its said and done. Althogh with that said I feel the need to address the HS pitcher comment. HS pitchers are coming forward and flourishing like never before. The reason is probably due to how they are being treated, unlike the past where they were just thrown into the fire. A HS pitcher is a much safer bet now than it was say 15 years ago.

LoganBuck
02-22-2007, 03:48 PM
Most taller pitchers end up having back problems before its said and done. Althogh with that said I feel the need to address the HS pitcher comment. HS pitchers are coming forward and flourishing like never before. The reason is probably due to how they are being treated, unlike the past where they were just thrown into the fire. A HS pitcher is a much safer bet now than it was say 15 years ago.

I agree doug. I was just saying that given the relative dislike of HS pitchers in the first round from some, taking a tall pitcher is much worse. I would still rather have a college pitcher in the first round assuming he has the talent and results, just as long as he isn't too tall.

Superdude
02-22-2007, 04:16 PM
The fact that Wieters is an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Adam Dunn amazes me.

Wieters is only 230. Dunn's like 275.

Outshined_One
02-22-2007, 05:05 PM
Wieters is only 230. Dunn's like 275.

Huh. I've seen Dunn listed as 240 in some places, but 275 elsewhere.

*Shrugs*

My point remains; Wieters is surprisingly large for a catcher. I'll be impressed if he's still playing there in five years.

Also, one point about Brackman that's worth noting. The mileage on his arm is much, much lower than the majority of other pitchers his age. Playing and focusing on basketball until recently has kept overzealous managers and coaches from throwing him out there and riding him into the ground. Because he's older, his body might be able to shoulder the load more.

Topcat
02-25-2007, 06:47 AM
What's the love for Julio Borbon? Since when do speedy slap hitters with mediocre patience warrant a top 10 pick?

My favorites right now are Beau Mills, J.P. Arencibia, and Joe Savery. Of course this time last year Jordan Walden looked like an OK pick at #8, so who knows.

Guess your signing up for the actual draft lol. PS RED LEADER! I better get a team for this year like last I am so in :beerme:

Reds2006champs
02-25-2007, 08:38 AM
Jason Heyward, OF, L-L, 6’4, 220, Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga.

Having already taken a high-end college pitcher, the Blue Jays may shift their focus to a high-ceiling prep player. Years ago they traded for a young first baseman named Fred McGriff, who went on to belt almost 500 big league homers. Jason Heyward has drawn comparisons to McGriff for the last two years thanks to his size, his lefty stroke and his power potential.

The best thing about Heyward is that, unlike McGriff, he won’t be limited to first base as a pro. Sporting an arm that has touched 90 mph during stints as a pitcher and above average speed, Heyward profiles as a very capable everyday rightfielder in the majors. He is also adept at working counts to get his pitch and won’t shy away from walks.

At present, his power is impressive even though he sprays hits from foul pole to foul pole. Once he learns how to turn on pitches consistently he’s going to be a monster power source for years to come. J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he will take a high school player in the right situation, and Heyward’s skill set will provide Toronto with just that situation.

That is a player I would LOVE to see the Reds draft.

M2
02-26-2007, 07:59 PM
The Reds might be able to snag a HS who's better than the #15 slot. Perhaps a kid like Tanner Robles, though HS pitchers who throw a lot of curves terrify me from a health standpoint.

RedEye
02-28-2007, 11:11 PM
I'd like to see a mix of HS and college arms with the high draft picks. Seems to me that this is the draft WayneK can really put his own stamp on... and I hope it is with pitching!

Gallen5862
03-01-2007, 01:00 PM
I am in the Mock draft as well.

dougdirt
03-17-2007, 03:09 PM
Baseball America has started a free draft blog
Check it out.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/

edabbs44
03-17-2007, 03:30 PM
That is a player I would LOVE to see the Reds draft.

If/when they go bats, I would like to see a righty.

Betterread
03-18-2007, 12:55 PM
I would like to see the Reds correct their organizational lack of young catchers - starting by drafting 2 catchers in the first 5 rounds - pick the best College catcher and the best HS catcher on your list (that way they will play at different levels so both will get playing time).
Pitching is needed, as always, and I hope good pitching is emphasised in early round selections.

dougdirt
03-18-2007, 02:54 PM
I would like to see the Reds correct their organizational lack of young catchers - starting by drafting 2 catchers in the first 5 rounds - pick the best College catcher and the best HS catcher on your list (that way they will play at different levels so both will get playing time).
Pitching is needed, as always, and I hope good pitching is emphasised in early round selections.

I am not a fan of drafting a catcher anywhere in the top 5 rounds. Drafting catchers makes drafting a pitcher look successful. Here is the list of players drafted as catchers between 1996 and 2000.


Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB K PA Notes
Brandon Inge 2406 581 116 24 71 195 561 2672 316 of 728 games at catcher
Robert Fick 2176 567 110 11 67 216 344 2437 178 of 2176 games as catcher
Matt Lecroy 1368 358 67 1 60 123 328 1519 120 of 469 games at catcher
Yadier Molina 937 223 47 1 16 62 91 1033
Josh Bard 744 201 44 1 22 68 119 816
Jayson Werth 721 177 39 6 25 87 232 825 Never played a MLB game as a catcher
Gerald Laird 474 126 30 2 10 31 107 520
J.D. Closser 447 107 21 3 10 50 93 506
Ryan Doumit 380 90 22 1 12 26 90 435
Jason Grabowski 301 59 8 1 11 33 85 335
Rob Bowen 131 27 5 0 4 17 40 153
Koyie Hill 117 27 7 0 1 13 35 132
Brandon Harper 41 12 3 0 2 4 4 46
J.R. House 19 2 1 0 0 0 4 19
Mike Tonis 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 7
Dane Sardinha 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Jeff Bailey 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Edgar Cruz 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camron Hahn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Johnny Hernandez 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tony Lawrence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Giuseppe Chiaramonte 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Jenkins 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeff Winchester 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeff Goldbach 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sammy Serrano 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gabe Johnson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Dean 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Bundy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kennon Mcarthur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Raynier Cardona 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Christianson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nick Trzesniak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
James Perez 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Will Hartley 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DrewMcMillan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jorge Soto 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Russ Jacobson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jon Kessick 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Woody 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Jaile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Heard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Robert Stiehl 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dave Parrish 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jared Abruzzo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Walter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omar Falcon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tommy Arko 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Wilson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jason Belcher 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Esposito 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brad Cresse 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
David Kenna 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lee Evans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vidal Candefaria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Mcaffee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Loyd 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tucker Batt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bobby Brito 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Pugh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


So, there were 60 catchers drafted between 1996 and 2000, and just 4 of them have even gotten 1000 plate appearances. That is 6.6%. Personally, I would let someone else draft and develop a catcher and trade for or sign a FA catcher before I would waste a top 5 round pick on one.

Betterread
03-18-2007, 04:08 PM
Interesting data Doug, it gives one pause. I do wish to note that the 2001 draft (which was not in your survey) yielded current star C Joe Mauer, and projected regular C starters, Jeff Mathis and Kelly Stoppach in the first two rounds.

dougdirt
03-18-2007, 04:37 PM
Interesting data Doug, it gives one pause. I do wish to note that the 2001 draft (which was not in your survey) yielded current star C Joe Mauer, and projected regular C starters, Jeff Mathis and Kelly Stoppach in the first two rounds.

I stopped at 2000 so that HS kids had reasonable time to get to the majors. 2001 draftees out of HS are just now turning 24/25ish.
Mauer, is undoubtedly a star.
Mathis however has a nice .561 OPS this spring, and didn't exactly tear it up in AAA last year (.289/.333/.430). He is still quite young and can improve. He won't turn 24 until the last day of March.
Shoppach will be 27 at the end of April and has 125 games in the majors with an OPS of .605. Until he shows something worth while at the plate in the majors, he is just an old guy feasting on young guns in the minors. And lets be realistic....would you want to waste a first or second round draft pick if you knew 5 years later you would have Kelly Shoppach?

cincy09
03-18-2007, 05:20 PM
If the catcher turns out real good they'll end up moving to 1st base anyeway

M2
04-03-2007, 02:20 PM
I'm starting to get extremely interested in Nick Schmidt. Then again, I'm a sucker for tall lefty pitchers.

Blue
04-08-2007, 11:54 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2824289&action=login&appRedirect=http%3A%2F%2Finsider.espn.go.com%2Fmlb %2Finsider%2Fcolumns%2Fstory%3Fcolumnist%3Dlaw_kei th%26id%3D2824289 (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2824289&action=login&appRedirect=http%3A%2F%2Finsider.espn.go.com%2Fmlb %2Finsider%2Fcolumns%2Fstory%3Fcolumnist%3Dlaw_kei th%26id%3D2824289)

New list from Keith Law.

1. Matt Wieters, C (Georgia Tech)
2. David Price, LHP (Vanderbilt)
3. Andrew Brackman, RHP (North Carolina State)
4. Rick Porcello, RHP (Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, N.J.)
5. Josh Vitters, 3B (Cypress (Calif.) High School)
6. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (Ecole Secondary Du Versant, Gatineau, Quebec)
7. Matt Harvey, RHP (Fitch High School, Groton, Conn.)
8. Jason Heyward, OF/1B (Henry County High School, McDonough, Ga.)
9. Justin Jackson, SS (Roberson High School, Asheville, N.C.)
10. Matt Dominguez, 3B (Chatsworth (Calif.) High School)
11. Ross Detwiler, LHP (Missouri State)
12. Michael Burgess, OF (Hillsborough High School, Tampa, Fla.)
13. Michael Main, RHP (Deland (Fla.) High School)
14. Blake Beavan, RHP (Irving (Texas) High School)
15. Daniel Moskos, LHP (Clemson)
16. Matt Mangini, 3B (Oklahoma State)
17. Neil Ramirez, RHP (Kempsville (Va.) High School)
18. J.P. Arencibia, C (Tennessee)
19. Tanner Robles, LHP (Cottonwood High School, Salt Lake City)
20. Madison Bumgarner, LHP (South Caldwell High School, Hudson N.C.)
21. Jack McGeary, LHP/1B (Roxbury (Mass.) Latin High School)
22. Mitch Canham, C (Oregon State)
23. Josh Fields, RHP (Georgia)
24. Casey Weathers, RHP (Vanderbilt)
25. Jake Arrieta, RHP (TCU)
26. Brett Cecil, LHP (Maryland)
27. Julio Borbon, OF (Tennessee)
28. Nevin Griffith, RHP (Middleton High School, Fla.)
29. John Tolisano, SS/2B (Estero (Fla.) High School)
30. Yasmani Grandal, C (Miami Springs High School, Hialeah, Fla.)
31. Eric Eiland, OF (Lamar High School, Houston, Texas)
32. Greg Peavey, RHP (Hudson's Bay High School, Vancouver, Wash.)
33. Josh Smoker, LHP (Calhoun (Ga.) High School)
34. Peter Kozma, SS (Owasso, Okla.)
35. Beau Mills, 3B/1B (Lewis-Clark (Idaho) State)
36. Mike Moustakas, 3B/C (Chatsworth (Calif.) High School)
37. Jordan Walden, RHP (Grayson County CC, Texas)*
38. Aaron Poreda, LHP (San Francisco)
39. Nick Noonan, SS (Francis Parker High School, San Diego)
40. Zach Cozart, SS (Ole Miss)
41. Tim Alderson, RHP (Horizon High School, Scottsdale, Ariz.)
42. Christian Colon, SS (Canyon High School, Anaheim, Calif.)
43. Josh Donaldson, C (Auburn)
44. Nick Schmidt, LHP (Arkansas)
45. Wes Roemer, RHP (Cal State Fullerton)
46. James Simmons, RHP (UC Riverside)
47. Kyle Russell, RF (Texas)
48. Matt Latos, RHP (Broward County CC, Fla.)**
49. Eddie Kunz, RHP (Oregon State)
50. Jarrod Parker, RHP (Norwell (Ind.) High School)
51. Matt Spencer, OF (Arizona State)
52. Joe Savery, LHP (Rice)
53. Ryan Dent, IF (Long Beach Wilson High School, Calif.)
54. Kentrail Davis, OF (Theodore (Ala.) High School)
55. Matt LaPorta, 1B (Florida)
56. Kevin Keyes, OF (Connally, Austin)
57. James Adkins, LHP (Tennessee)
58. Julian Sampson, RHP (Skyline High School, Wash.)
59. Danny Rams, C (Gulliver Prep, Miami)
60. Nathan Vineyard, LHP (Woodland High School, Emerson, Ga.)

* Walden is under control as a draft-and-follow to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

jmcclain19
04-09-2007, 04:18 PM
I'd love someoen like Ross Detwiler (Big Tall lanky lefty) to fall to the Reds at 15 and then see them pick up Yasmani Grandal at 37. Savery at 52 would be nice as well. His stock has fallen quite a bit and I think he could be a sneaky pick.

Red Leader
04-09-2007, 04:36 PM
Everyone from Texas interests me. :laugh:

Seriously, I've liked what I've read about Detwiler.

They list Greg Peavey at #32. I don't think he's any relation to Jake Peavy, but isn't Jake Peavy's younger brother supposed to be in the draft this year? Maybe they spelled Greg's last name wrong? :dunno:

jmcclain19
04-09-2007, 04:42 PM
They list Greg Peavey at #32. I don't think he's any relation to Jake Peavy, but isn't Jake Peavy's younger brother supposed to be in the draft this year? Maybe they spelled Greg's last name wrong? :dunno:

From the looks of it, it doesn't look like they are related

http://www.aflacallamerican.com/2006/Roster/index.cfm?id=158

Red Leader
04-09-2007, 04:45 PM
From the looks of it, it doesn't look like they are related

http://www.aflacallamerican.com/2006/Roster/index.cfm?id=158

Ugh. That dude looks like a pure soccer player. :laugh: :laugh: (Not that there's anything wrong with that)

I swear I remember that Jake Peavy had a younger brother going into the draft this year. I'll have to look into that.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-09-2007, 06:11 PM
Does anyone know if BA listed the top farms systems for 2007?

Thanks in advance.

New Fever
04-09-2007, 06:15 PM
Yes the Reds ranked 12th, they said that the Reds were top heavy, with depth being an issue.

Top 5:

1. Devil Rays
2. Rockies
3. Diamondbacks
4. Angels
5. Yankees
7. Brewers
18.Cubs
19.Pirates
22. Astros
23. Cardinals

BuckeyeRedleg
04-09-2007, 06:18 PM
Yes the Reds ranked 12th, they said that the Reds were top heavy, with depth being an issue.

I cannot find this even on the BA site. Is the list premium? Can you give me the link?

Thanks.

New Fever
04-09-2007, 06:19 PM
Premium list

Blue
04-11-2007, 10:13 PM
Premium list

I'm not so sure. I'm not an Insider and I accessed it off of a search from Yahoo!. However, if I'm wrong, I'll edit it.

Gallen5862
04-18-2007, 07:30 PM
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=262&p=2&c=635519&refid=400
Scout.com > Cincinnati
2007 Draft: Mid-Season First Round Projection
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Todd Morgan
OaklandClubhouse.com Apr 14, 2007

As promised, Todd Morgan returns this weekend with his updated first round projections for the 2007 MLB draft. Find out if he still sees David Price at number one, where he sees Tanner Robles going, who the Oakland A's might pick and more inside...

With the prep and college seasons at or past their halfway points it's time to look at where players are slotting into June’s first round. Movement up and down draft boards happens every week, so I have lightened up the player write-ups to save time and allow for a better snapshot of where everyone stands heading into the second weekend of April. The Devil Rays are on the board.
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - David Price, LHP, B:L T:L, 6’5, 215, Vanderbilt
Price has done nothing to alter the preseason perception that he is the best pitcher in the draft. Tampa Bay, meet Mr. David Price.

2. Kansas City Royals - Rick Porcello, RHP, R-R, 6’5, 190, Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, NJ
Porcello’s size, stuff and projection are becoming more and more attractive as he piles up stellar performances for the nation’s number one prep team.

3. Chicago Cubs - Matt Wieters, C, S-R, 6’4, 205, Georgia Tech
The word in scouting circles is that the Cubs are leaning hard toward taking Wieters, a switch-hitting masher who has the bat to play first if he can’t stay behind the plate.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Josh Vitters, 3B, R-R, 6’3, 190, Cypress HS, California
Right now, Vitters is the top high school bat in the nation. Tired of seeing their first rounders disappear with elbow and shoulder trouble, the Pirates are thinking position player early.

5. Baltimore Orioles - Phillippe Aumont, RHP, R-R, 6’5, 210, Ecole Du Versant HS
Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen and now Phillippe Aumont? It’s true; the Orioles are considering the huge Quebec native at number five.

6. Washington Nationals - Ross Detwiler, LHP, R-L, 6’4, 180, Missouri State
Next to Price the best lefty in the draft, and moving toward the fast track to the Bigs. The Nationals need draft picks who aren’t long for the minors, so Detwiler’s a good fit.

7. Milwaukee Brewers - Michael Burgess, OF, L-L, 5’11, 195, Hillsborough HS, Tampa, FL
The Brewers might need arms a bit more than they need bats, but Burgess’ power and skill set are tempting. He may strike out a lot, but that didn’t stop them from gambling on Prince Fielder.

8. Colorado Rockies - Matt Harvey, RHP, R-R, 6’4, 195, Fitch HS, Groton, CT
Working in the low- to mid-90s consistently and getting outs on the ground. Harvey is a good bet to develop into a successful Coors Field pitcher.

9. Arizona Diamondbacks - Daniel Moskos, LHP, R-L, 6’2, 200, Clemson
Will he start in the pros? The D-Backs think so, but it’s nice to know that Moskos’ fallback role would likely be as a “shutdown reliever.”

10. San Francisco Giants - Andrew Brackman, RHP, 7’0, 250, North Carolina State
Fast start but now coming back to Earth. His stuff is nasty which will keep him in the Top 10. But how long will it take him to get his huge body under control and develop consistent mechanics?

11. Seattle Mariners - Matt Mangini, 3B, L-R, 6’4, 220, Oklahoma State
Still as good a fit as it was in January. Mangini is a good all-around 3B who will develop quickly, and the Mariners will need one when Adrian Beltre departs.

12. Florida Marlins - Justin Jackson, SS, R-R, 6’2, 175, T.C. Roberson HS, Asheville, NC
Jackson is being scouted heavily by Florida, which could be due to geographic proximity. They need a blue chip SS prospect though, so this seems like a match

13. Cleveland Indians - Tanner Robles, LHP, L-L, 6’3, 190, Cottonwood HS, Salt Lake City, UT
Which prep lefty to take, Madison Bumgarner or Tanner Robles? My money is on Robles here thanks to breaking stuff that is farther along.

14. Atlanta Braves - Blake Beavan, RHP, R-R, 6’7, 210, Irving HS, TX
His sheer size could slow his development, but right now there isn’t a prep hitter in Texas who can touch Blake Beavan.

15. Cincinnati Reds - Jason Heyward, OF, L-L, 6’4, 220, Henry County HS, McDonough, GA
If he lasts this long, visions of Heyward peppering the right field bleachers at Great American Ballpark will persuade the Reds to pop him with their top choice.

16. Toronto Blue Jays - Matt Dominguez, 3B, R-R, 6’2, 180, Chatsworth HS, California
Josh Vitters is getting most of the attention, but Dominguez isn’t all that far behind him. Hot corner power that the Jays haven’t developed since, well, probably Ed Sprague.

17. Texas Rangers - Julio Borbon, OF, L-L, 6’1, 190, Tennessee
Back from an injury, Borbon isn’t in top form yet, but all teams will care about is the month of May. If he’s raking and running when Memorial Day arrives, he is a first rounder for someone.

18. St. Louis Cardinals - Michael Main, RHP, R-R, 6’2, 185, DeLand HS, FL
Not as polished as Harvey, but he has the edge in velocity and a lot of projection in his frame.

19. Philadelphia Phillies - Madison Bumgarner, LHP, R-L, 6’5, 220, South Caldwell HS, NC
Bumgarner has impressed scouts this year and many think he’ll at least be Robles’ equal, but for now he is a tick behind.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers - Jack McGeary, LHP, L-L, 6’3, 200, Roxbury Latin HS, MA
The Dodgers are all over McGeary and this may be the first pre-draft deal completed this year.

21. Toronto Blue Jays - J.P. Arencibia, C, R-R, 6’0, 210, Tennessee
With their second first rounder the Jays turn to a backstop with a great bat. He might not stay behind the plate, but so far scouts seem to think he has a good chance to do so.

22. San Francisco Giants - Mitch Canham, C, R-R, 6‚ ¨!"2, 215, Oregon State
Promising bat and the athleticism to be an above-average catcher. Not he just needs a few years at the position to adjust to its nuances. The Giants know he already looks good in orange and black.

23. San Diego Padres - Joe Savery, LHP, L-L, 6’3, 215, Rice
Weird year for Savery with ace pitcher duties, middle-of-the-order hitting duties and recovery from shoulder surgery. It is almost like he got lost among all the storylines at Rice, but he’s still a great pitching prospect.

24. Texas Rangers - Neil Ramirez, RHP, R-R, 6’3, 190, Kempsville HS, VA
With an outfielder already in the fold, the Rangers turn to a projectible high school arm. Ramirez is polished and dealing so far this year.

25. Chicago White Sox - Matt LaPorta, 1B, R-R, 6’2, 215, Florida
No shortstop is worthy of a pick here, so the White Sox turn to the best power prospect in the draft.

26. Oakland Athletics - Nick Schmidt, LHP, L-L, 6’5, 220, Arkansas
The A’s are still thinking advanced lefty starter and Schmidt is the best one on the board at this point. There are more out there, though, so if they don’t take one in the first, they will by the end of the second.

27. Detroit Tigers - Yasmani Grandal, C, S-R, 6’2, 205, Miami Springs HS, Hialeah, FL
Grandal is really moving up draft boards with his defensive skills and bat that is developing more quickly than most scouts believed it would.

28. Minnesota Twins - Mike Moustakas, 3B/C, L-L, 6’2, 170, Chatsworth HS, CA
If scouts think he can catch in the pros, Moustakas could jump into the Top 15. For now he is a 3B or corner OF with a legitimate first round bat.

29. San Francisco Giants - Beau Mills, 3B, L-R, 6’3, 200, Lewis-Clark State
Mills is just raking at Lewis-Clark. A college righty, athletic catcher and mashing corner infielder would be a nice first round haul for SF.

30. New York Yankees - Casey Weathers, RHP, R-R, 6’0, 195, Vanderbilt
Weathers has jumped into the first round discussion with 91-95 MPH heat, a hard slider and excellent closer’s makeup. It is also satisfying to have Vandy pitchers bookending the first round.

Questions for Todd? Email him by clicking here.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Story URL: http://story.Scout.com/a.z?s=262&p=2&c=635519

Blue
04-18-2007, 09:30 PM
If, as that article says, scouts think Arencibia has a good chance to stay behind the plate as a major leaguer, the Reds almost have to draft him. Right handed power hitting catcher, fills two Reds needs at once.

LoganBuck
04-19-2007, 02:04 PM
Lefthanded hitting outfielder? You can't give that choice too much credit.

Gallen5862
04-20-2007, 03:32 PM
Scherzer could enter the draft and give teams more options to consider. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/263730.html
Scherzer Signs With Independent League Team

By J.J. Cooper
E-mail this article
April 18, 2007 Print this article


Max Scherzer will try to follow in Luke Hochevar's footsteps in Fort Worth.

Scherzer, the only remaining unsigned first rounder from last year's draft, has signed with the independent Fort Worth Cats (American Association), the same team that Hochevar signed with last spring. After several strong outings in Fort Worth, Hochevar, the 40th pick in the 2005 draft, went No. 1 overall to the Royals last June.

Several other Boras clients have also signed with independent league teams before signing new deals with the teams that had already drafted them. The Diamondbacks signed Stephen Drew after a 19-game stint in the Atlantic League while Jered Weaver signed but did not pitch for an Atlantic League squad.

Scherzer, taken 11th overall last June by the Diamondbacks, is represented by Scott Boras, as is Hochevar. When Boras looked to place Scherzer in Fort Worth, Cats director of player personnel Barry Moss said that he didn't have to think too hard before accepting the offer.

In addition to Scherzer, Fort Worth also signed former Cubs first-rounder Chadd Blasko, another Boras client. Chicago released Blasko at the end of spring training , and the Cats plan to have him pitch in relief behind Scherzer so scouts can see both players on the same night.

Scherzer will make his first start on May 2 in an exhibition game at Baylor's ballpark. He'll throw again May 7 at Fort Worth in an exhibition game, then make his regular-season debut at home on May 12. He'll throw again in Fort Worth on May 18, then on the road in Sioux Falls, S.D., on May 23. He'll return to Fort Worth for a start on May 28, and is scheduled to make one final start on June 2, though Hochevar was scratched from a similar start last year once he'd shown his plus stuff in the previous outings.

According to Moss, Scherzer has been working out at UC Irvine for several months and was ready to go to spring training and pitch had a deal been worked out with the Diamondbacks. He has continued to throw bullpens since, and should be relatively stretched out for his first start.

"The Boras group has some ex-baseball players that know the routines to get this stuff done," Fort Worth manager Stan Hough said. "Max told me he's ready to throw 75-90 pitches right now. We'll probably hold him to 75-80 right off the bat."

Scherzer, still can sign with the Diamondbacks before May 31. He entered 2006 as the top righthanded pitching prospect in the draft after working in the mid- to upper 90s with Missouri and Team USA as a sophomore. But he came down with biceps tendinitis, which took a toll on his stuff and concerned several clubs.

His stint in Fort Worth will give scouts a chance to see if his stuff has returned to the form that he's shown in the past. Scherzer doesn't figure to equal Hochevar's rise to the No. 1 overall pick, but he should benefit from a 2007 draft crop lacking in frontline college righthanders. The only two currently rated as first-rounders are North Carolina State's Andrew Brackman and Texas Christian's Jake Arrieta, both of whom have been disappointing and also are advised by Boras.

"If Max Scherzer is healthy and throwing 95-98 mph like he was as a sophomore," one scouting director said, "he's right behind David Price at the top of the draft."