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hippie07
02-22-2007, 02:51 PM
A discussion over in the other forum got me interested in discussing Lohse, but I can't post over there, so I thought I'd ask you all what you thought about Pole's strategy in helping Lohse have his "breakout" year. He wants Lohse to stick with just a few pitches and "simplify things." What do you all think - is there any merit in that argument? Could an approach like this really help him find success this year?


http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070220/SPT04/302200068/1071

flyer85
02-22-2007, 02:54 PM
It's all about making better pitches. Whatever it takes to accomplish that will do. Certainly seems to be more art than science. Stuff is not Lohse's problem.

Superdude
02-22-2007, 03:33 PM
The Reds are trying to limit the number of different pitches Lohse uses. He throws a fastball, changeup, slider and curve. Right now, the plan is go fastball-change-slider with an occasional curve mixed in. “That’s our aim,” Pole said. “It kind of simplifies things.”

That Dick Pole is brilliant! "Do the exact same thing you've always done and act like you're changing so we can turn it into a riveting news story."

TeamSelig
02-22-2007, 03:35 PM
lol

It makes sense if Lohse's curve ball isn't all that great. I have no idea how good each of his pitches are though.

Krash
02-22-2007, 03:42 PM
IF he can keep his composure pitch like he did a couple of years ago...look out.

acredsfan
02-22-2007, 03:49 PM
I don't know why, but Lohse strikes me as one of those who can be "effectively wild". He doesn't seem to have great control, but if he gets the movement on his pitches that he is capable of he doesn't have to have pin point control. I hate the phrase effectively wild, but it just seems the best way to explain him.

mth123
02-22-2007, 03:53 PM
I've been pretty critical of Lohse this winter and I think he has nothing in his track record to suggest success in 2007. If his troubles can be traced to 1 sub-par pitch that is way inferior to the others, then eliminating that pitch should help.

I hope it works and proves me wrong.

bucksfan2
02-22-2007, 03:55 PM
I don't know why, but Lohse strikes me as one of those who can be "effectively wild". He doesn't seem to have great control, but if he gets the movement on his pitches that he is capable of he doesn't have to have pin point control. I hate the phrase effectively wild, but it just seems the best way to explain him.

That is a good way to point say it. Pitchers like that scare the hitter esp when you can bring it like Lohse can. He is an interesting case this year because he has shown signs throughout his career of being a good pitcher but never has put it all together. He is on a contract year so I would bet that you see an improves Lohse this year.

danwl
02-22-2007, 07:10 PM
Hmm. Don't throw pitches you aren't very good at ... that might be just crazy enough to work!

dunner13
02-22-2007, 07:31 PM
If lohse can pitch just a little better then league average, and milton can be average we could have a very serious chance at contending.

mth123
02-22-2007, 07:52 PM
Hmm. Don't throw pitches you aren't very good at ... that might be just crazy enough to work!

Pure genious huh?

jojo
02-22-2007, 07:59 PM
IF he can keep his composure pitch like he did a couple of years ago...look out.

Lets get real for a moment.... Lohse's troubles have little to due with composure. He's a tee for lefties and he has no endurance. Basically his curveball is effective against righties (when its on) and he can throw a nothing special fastball in the low 90's for strikes.

This isn't a guy needing the right pitching coach or a magic message from the dalai lama... He basically is what he is....a back end guy that looks good when hitters help him a bit. He's nothing special but good enough to be somewhere between back end fodder and league average.

He just looks like he ought to be good....but hey so does fruitcake.

Superdude
02-22-2007, 08:44 PM
He's a tee for lefties and he has no endurance. Basically his curveball is effective against righties (when its on) and he can throw a nothing special fastball in the low 90's for strikes.

He might have the best stuff on the staff pre-Homer Bailey and you talk about him like he's Kirk Saarloos.

BRM
02-23-2007, 09:34 AM
If lohse can pitch just a little better then league average, and milton can be average we could have a very serious chance at contending.

That would be nice but it's asking a lot. Milton is VERY likely to be well below average. Lohse? I'd be happy with 180 innings at league average. I won't hold my breath on that one though.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 09:43 AM
This isn't a guy needing the right pitching coach or a magic message from the dalai lama

So, is the suggestion that coaching is pointless? Is it that a guy in his mid/late twenties is incapable of improvement? Or is it that guys with a certain repertoire can't get better?

registerthis
02-23-2007, 09:44 AM
Maybe he's tipping his pitches?

redsmetz
02-23-2007, 09:45 AM
So, is the suggestion that coaching is pointless? Is it that a guy in his mid/late twenties is incapable of improvement? Or is it that guys with a certain repertoire can't get better?

Didn't you get the memo? Reds pitchers are dirt, they can never improve, they're always declining in their abilities - fodder, below league average, yada yada yada.

Johnny Footstool
02-23-2007, 09:52 AM
Maybe he's tipping his pitches?

Ravenlord mentioned that he noticed Lohse slowing his delivery for his curve and slider.

Whatever he's doing, hitters have caught on over the past 5 seasons, as Lohse's K/9 has declined steadily since he made it to the big leagues.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 10:27 AM
Didn't you get the memo? Reds pitchers are dirt, they can never improve, they're always declining in their abilities - fodder, below league average, yada yada yada.

Ooops. I'll check my in-box....

Ah yes. Sez here to ignore quotes from professional coaches about "stuff" and to defer to online experts instead. Sez if I did that, that would be great.

Snark begets snark.

jojo
02-23-2007, 11:37 AM
He might have the best stuff on the staff pre-Homer Bailey and you talk about him like he's Kirk Saarloos.


Beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess....he's got a very good curve against righthanded hitters....thats about it...

jojo
02-23-2007, 11:38 AM
So, is the suggestion that coaching is pointless? Is it that a guy in his mid/late twenties is incapable of improvement? Or is it that guys with a certain repertoire can't get better?


I think that it's what you see is what you get with this guy...

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
02-23-2007, 11:46 AM
Pure genious huh?
BRILLIANT!

Krash
02-23-2007, 11:52 AM
Lets get real for a moment.... Lohse's troubles have little to due with composure. He's a tee for lefties and he has no endurance. Basically his curveball is effective against righties (when its on) and he can throw a nothing special fastball in the low 90's for strikes.

This isn't a guy needing the right pitching coach or a magic message from the dalai lama... He basically is what he is....a back end guy that looks good when hitters help him a bit. He's nothing special but good enough to be somewhere between back end fodder and league average.

He just looks like he ought to be good....but hey so does fruitcake.

Right...lack of composure had nothing to do with him trying to throw a chair thru his manager's office in Minnesota. I guess that's what I was getting at.

Johnny Footstool
02-23-2007, 11:54 AM
So, is the suggestion that coaching is pointless? Is it that a guy in his mid/late twenties is incapable of improvement? Or is it that guys with a certain repertoire can't get better?

No. Anything can happen.

But Lohse's peripherals suggest he just isn't a good bet to improve dramatically.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 12:22 PM
he just isn't a good bet to improve dramatically.

When is anyone a "good bet" to improve "dramatically"? Other than an injury, what present factor makes a player a good bet to improve dramatically?

My guess is that it's either talent busting through or something hypodermically-induced. In Lohse's case, we're arguing about his talent -- is it real?

There are professional coaches who think he's got good stuff, better than average stuff. Jojo is claiming his stuff is pedestrian and that his performance is doomed to below league average levels. Who's right?

Opinion on the board varies, but among Reds coaches -- who certainly are biased -- he is said to have legit talent. Narron's recent praise for Lohse's changeup was particularly interesting, as I don't think Lohse used it much last year (though I could be wrong there).

The record shows that he had a couple of solid years as a young starter in the AL -- and some lesser years more recently. Can he revert to the form that in Minnesota made him a solid starter on a division winning team? Some on the board give him no chance, based on K rates, evaluations that his stuff isn't that good, or whatever. In my opinion, because he hasn't been injured and because he is pitching for a big contract this year -- and because I think he does have good stuff -- he's got a good chance to be that pitcher again, if not even a little better, thanks to experience.

We'll see.

Puffy
02-23-2007, 12:49 PM
Didn't you get the memo? Reds pitchers are dirt, they can never improve, they're always declining in their abilities - fodder, below league average, yada yada yada.

Nice sarcasm!

Lets see, the Reds haven't had pitchers for the better part of a decade but those who point this out are wrong and your sarcasm is here to point that out - nice!

Cause the Reds haven't trotted out 90% dirt in the last 6 years at the very least.

Way to keep everyone honest.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 12:52 PM
Cause the Reds haven't trotted out 90% dirt in the last 6 years at the very least.

Way to keep everyone honest.

Yeah, the Reds pitching has been horrible, but what does that have to do with Kyle Lohse or 2007?

jojo
02-23-2007, 12:53 PM
When is anyone a "good bet" to improve "dramatically"? Other than an injury, what present factor makes a player a good bet to improve dramatically?

My guess is that it's either talent busting through or something hypodermically-induced. In Lohse's case, we're arguing about his talent -- is it real?

There are professional coaches who think he's got good stuff, better than average stuff. Jojo is claiming his stuff is pedestrian and that his performance is doomed to below league average levels. Who's right?

Opinion on the board varies, but among Reds coaches -- who certainly are biased -- he is said to have legit talent. Narron's recent praise for Lohse's changeup was particularly interesting, as I don't think Lohse used it much last year (though I could be wrong there).

The record shows that he had a couple of solid years as a young starter in the AL -- and some lesser years more recently. Can he revert to the form that in Minnesota made him a solid starter on a division winning team? Some on the board give him no chance, based on K rates, evaluations that his stuff isn't that good, or whatever. In my opinion, because he hasn't been injured and because he is pitching for a big contract this year -- and because I think he does have good stuff -- he's got a good chance to be that pitcher again, if not even a little better, thanks to experience.

We'll see.

To be fair I've said he has a decent chance to be a league average starter.... that's not an insult. League average for 175 innings at $4M is a positive thing. I'm merely pointing out that people who think he is top of the rotation potential just waiting for his psyche to come around dramatically overvalue both his abilities and his upside.

Johnny Footstool
02-23-2007, 12:53 PM
When is anyone a "good bet" to improve "dramatically"? Other than an injury, what present factor makes a player a good bet to improve dramatically?


Young guys with great minor-league track records are good bets. Guys with great raw stuff but control problems are good bets.

Guys like Lohse who have declined steadily through their major league careers aren't good bets.


There are professional coaches who think he's got good stuff, better than average stuff. Jojo is claiming his stuff is pedestrian and that his performance is doomed to below league average levels. Who's right?

Opinion on the board varies, but among Reds coaches -- who certainly are biased -- he is said to have legit talent. Narron's recent praise for Lohse's changeup was particularly interesting, as I don't think Lohse used it much last year (though I could be wrong there).

The record shows that he had a couple of solid years as a young starter in the AL -- and some lesser years more recently. Can he revert to the form that in Minnesota made him a solid starter on a division winning team? Some on the board give him no chance, based on K rates, evaluations that his stuff isn't that good, or whatever. In my opinion, because he hasn't been injured and because he is pitching for a big contract this year -- and because I think he does have good stuff -- he's got a good chance to be that pitcher again, if not even a little better, thanks to experience.

We'll see.

K/9 is the best indicator of raw "stuff." If Lohse's stuff is so good, you've got to wonder why he never posted stellar K/9 rates. He had two good K/9 seasons in the minors, but those involved short stints at a particular level. In the majors, he's dropped steadily from decent to bad K/9 rates.

Puffy
02-23-2007, 12:56 PM
Yeah, the Reds pitching has been horrible, but what does that have to do with Kyle Lohse or 2007?

I don't know - ask RedsMetz. He's the one who generalized.

Kyle Lohse is not good. His fastball is straight, just because he can touch 95 or so doesn't mean squat to MLB hitters. I keep seeing how great his stuff is, but a fastball without movement is what hitters dream about.

Not to mention he has no stamina and that he loses concentration (it appears at least) at some point in almost every start. The guy is a 4.90 ERA waiting to happen.

deltachi8
02-23-2007, 12:57 PM
Didn't you get the memo? Reds pitchers are dirt, they can never improve, they're always declining in their abilities - fodder, below league average, yada yada yada.

Well, in the case of Lohse...ya.

BRM
02-23-2007, 01:01 PM
To be fair I've said he has a decent chance to be a league average starter.... that's not an insult. League average for 175 innings at $4M is a positive thing. I'm merely pointing out that people who think he is top of the rotation potential just waiting for his psyche to come around dramatically overvalue both his abilities and his upside.

This nails it IMO. He has a decent chance to be league average which would be a bargain at his current price tag. Expecting top of the rotation results out of him in 2007 because it's a "contract year" will likely set you up for disappointment. I'll gladly take 175 innings with a league average ERA from Kyle Lohse in 2007.

M2
02-23-2007, 01:05 PM
The Reds need Lohse to have a good season. There is perhaps no other single thing as crucial to the team's chances of making a legitimate run at 85+ wins as Lohse having a solid campaign.

Can he improve? He's a better bet to do so than other Reds pitchers of the recent past because he's younger. If he were 30+ years-old with a definitive career pattern (like Eric Milton) I'd tell you that it's a waste of time expecting him to have a good season.

Yet Lohse is 28 and he's in a spot (free agency year) where a lot of guys manage to post a career season. Even if he's not a good bet, he's a better bet than what we've been treated to for most of this century.

To be fair, he's gotten better against LHBs in recent years thanks in part to his curve, though righties hit it better than they did his slider. Is it practical to throw both (slider to righties, curve to lefties)? From what I understand, trying to do that can screw up your mechanics. I'm under the impression that Lohse's slider has gotten a bit slurvy in recent years due to an inconsistent release point. Ravenlord, any thoughts on that?

Caveman Techie
02-23-2007, 01:25 PM
I actually look for Lohse to improve alot this year. Here's why, in 2003 which was his best year he pitched 201 innings (career high) that year he had a K/BB of 2.89 (career best) and an OPS of .738 against (career best). In my opinon for the type of pitcher that Lohse is and his delivery that was way too much of a workload for him.

2004 what do we get, his K/BB drops to 1.46 (career low) and at the same time he pitched 194 innings and a OPS against of .840 (career worst in a full year). Again I think that was too much work for him.

2005 his numbers improve a little bit while his number of innings pitched drops to 178.2 for 2005. By this time frame though I think he is just soured on the entire orginization of Minn.

2006 Minn. K/BB 1.84, OPS against .830, not very impressive.
Enter 2006 Reds, his K/BB goes up to 2.68 (second highest for career), OPS against drops to .762 (second best for career).

Now I know alot of people may attribute the improved numbers last year to moving to the NL, and that may have something to do with it, but then you also have to take into account pitching in GAB. However I just think Lohse was overworked in 2003 and 2004. He then started to do the bounce around game and just became frustrated with his situation in Minn. and may have been letting his head get in his own way. I think about 180 innings a year is all the Reds should target him for. And if all of those things fall into place he could be a very effective pitcher for the Reds.

I know it's a rosie outlook on things but thats how I see it. :)

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 01:30 PM
To be fair I've said he has a decent chance to be a league average starter

OK...


He's nothing special but good enough to be somewhere between back end fodder and league average.

Here's where you suggest league average is above what he can do. Maybe I'm picking nits, I don't know.

I'm not sure I've seen any posts suggesting he'll be a top of the rotation guy if he puts it all together. Seems to me his supporters are hoping he can fit into that #3 slot. By contrast, his detractors -- and there are plenty on this board -- consider him an awful pitcher, more worthy of an outright release than a shot at the #5 spot in the rotation. Hard for me to understand that point of view.


The Reds need Lohse to have a good. There is perhaps no other single thing as crucial to the team's chances of making a legitimate run at 85+ wins as Lohse having a solid campaign.

Can he improve? He's a better bet to do so than otehr Reds pitchers of the recent past because he's younger. If he were 30 years-old with a definitive career pattern (like Eric Milton) I'd tell you that it's a waste of time expecting him to have a good season.

Yet Lohse is 28 and he's in a spot (free agency year) where a lot of guys manage to post a career season. Even if he's not a good bet, he's a better bet than what we've been treated to for most of this century.

I'm with M2 on this one. Whether you call him a good bet, solid bet, decent bet, whatever...in year where, at the #3 slot in their rotations, the Cards will be counting on guys like Kip Wells, Braden Looper or Brad Thompson, the Cubs on Marquis, Marmol or Marshall and the Stros on Woody Williams, I have a lot of hope that Kyle Lohse can be every bit as good as the competition in the division.

BRM
02-23-2007, 01:34 PM
I have a lot of hope that Kyle Lohse can be every bit as good as the competition in the division.

I have lots of hope that he pitches well too. I'm not banking on it at this point but I really, truly hope he pitches like a solid #3.

jojo
02-23-2007, 01:43 PM
OK... Here's where you suggest league average is above what he can do. Maybe I'm picking nits, I don't know.

Ahhhh...I see what you were reacting too.... I was implying he could be anywhere between league average and replacement level meaning he could be league average, he could be below average but better than just grabbing a generic starter from your system or he could be no better than any starter you grab from your farm...

redsmetz
02-23-2007, 01:50 PM
I don't know - ask RedsMetz. He's the one who generalized.

Kyle Lohse is not good. His fastball is straight, just because he can touch 95 or so doesn't mean squat to MLB hitters. I keep seeing how great his stuff is, but a fastball without movement is what hitters dream about.

Not to mention he has no stamina and that he loses concentration (it appears at least) at some point in almost every start. The guy is a 4.90 ERA waiting to happen.

And that brings us back to the point of the original poster. Why is it out of the realm of possibility that this pitching coach will have success with Kyle Lohse or any of our other pitchers?

My sarcasm is certainly honest. There are far too many here who seem to take pleasure in denigrating any and every pitcher for the Reds and pumping up practically every other pitcher in the league who's available. He reaches the level of absurd, frankly.

M2
02-23-2007, 01:51 PM
I'm with M2 on this one. Whether you call him a good bet, solid bet, decent bet, whatever...in year where, at the #3 slot in their rotations, the Cards will be counting on guys like Kip Wells, Braden Looper or Brad Thompson, the Cubs on Marquis, Marmol or Marshall and the Stros on Woody Williams, I have a lot of hope that Kyle Lohse can be every bit as good as the competition in the division.

For the record, I view him as a poor bet at the moment, though Lohse is one of those who I think will reveal a lot during spring training. If he's going to have a good season, we'll see the signs of it early. What I mostly think of him is he bears watching at the moment. Perhaps something positive will materialize.

As for what the Reds have compared to others in the division, I never take solace in the notion that no one else looks to be a world beater. The Reds need to get their house right because, odds are, one of their five main competitors will too (though feel free to count the Pirates out). Step #1 for any contending team is to play well. Nothing takes the place of that, not even a cruddy division. Your team needs to be good enough to play winning baseball.

Plus, the Cardinals have Dave Duncan. He's an evil genius.

redsmetz
02-23-2007, 01:53 PM
For the record, I view him as a poor bet at the moment, though Lohse is one of those who I think will reveal a lot during spring training. If he's going to have a good season, we'll see the signs of it early. What I mostly think of him is he bears watching at the moment. Perhaps something positive will materialize.

As for what the Reds have compared to others in the division, I never take solace in the notion that no one else looks to be a world beater. The Reds need to get their house right because, odds are, one of their five main competitors will too (though feel free to count the Pirates out). Step #1 for any contending team is to play well. Nothing takes the place of that, not even a cruddy division. Your team needs to be good enough to play winning baseball.

Plus, the Cardinals have Dave Duncan. He's an evil genius.

Bravo!

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 02:13 PM
For the record, I view him as a poor bet at the moment, though Lohse is one of those who I think will reveal a lot during spring training.

Disagree. They are clearly putting focus on Lohse as a target of Dick Pole's tutelege. That says to me there will be some tinkering going on. Probably minor, but at the ST stage -- where order of business #1 is getting your strength and stamina built up -- by the time we're closing on the regular season Lohse may still be working on some new wrinkle, whether it be pitch mix or whatever.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 02:17 PM
As for what the Reds have compared to others in the division, I never take solace in the notion that no one else looks to be a world beater. The Reds need to get their house right because, odds are, one of their five main competitors will too (though feel free to count the Pirates out). Step #1 for any contending team is to play well. Nothing takes the place of that, not even a cruddy division. Your team needs to be good enough to play winning baseball.

When 95 of your games are in the division, darn right I'm looking at what the competition in the Central's got when I think about the Reds chances of being a winning team.

FWIW, I'm not as down on the Pirates....

jojo
02-23-2007, 02:20 PM
2006 Minn. K/BB 1.84, OPS against .830, not very impressive.
Enter 2006 Reds, his K/BB goes up to 2.68 (second highest for career), OPS against drops to .762 (second best for career).

Now I know a lot of people may attribute the improved numbers last year to moving to the NL, and that may have something to do with it, but then you also have to take into account pitching in GAB.

The league switch is a legit point to bring up. Also, based upon 3 yr averages, Minnesota is not that dramatically different than GABP (GABP does gives up more HRs but Minnesota is actually more scoring friendly).

Here are a couple of interesting differences though:
'06 Twins: BABIP: .350; LOB%: 61%; GB%: 38%; FB%:41%; K/9:6.5; IP:63;
'06 Cincy: BABIP: .332; LOB%: 71%; GB%: 48%; FB%:33%; K/9: 7.3; IP:63;
career....: BABIP: .311; LOB%: 71%; GB%: 42%; FB%:38%; K/9: 5.7;

Unless he completely changed his pitching style resulting in new batted ball type tendencies (as a Red he had a career low FB% and a career high GB%-both significantly better than his mlb averages), I think what you're looking at is small sample size theater concerning his stint with the Reds...

Basically he was pretty unlucky as a Twin (BABIP, LOB%) and his luck improved as a Red. It didn't hurt that he faced the 19th, 24th, 25th, 26th, 28th,and 29th worst offenses in the majors for 8 of his 11 starts as a Red either...

Ltlabner
02-23-2007, 02:46 PM
The Reds need Lohse to have a good season. There is perhaps no other single thing as crucial to the team's chances of making a legitimate run at 85+ wins as Lohse having a solid campaign.

Can he improve? He's a better bet to do so than other Reds pitchers of the recent past because he's younger. If he were 30+ years-old with a definitive career pattern (like Eric Milton) I'd tell you that it's a waste of time expecting him to have a good season.



This is sorta where I'm at with Loshe. I think he has a chance to improve and be productive. World beater..no way. But a productive back end guy? There's a chance if he can improve his focus, keep his mechanics under control and if the Jedi masters of Soto/Pole can help him uncover some hitherto hidden powers. There's also a chance he could be mediocre to below average.

But as M2 said there's a better chance of Loshe pulling something together than most of the folks who've been shuffled through there in the recient past.

Caveman Techie
02-23-2007, 02:50 PM
The league switch is a legit point to bring up. Also, based upon 3 yr averages, Minnesota is not that dramatically different than GABP (GABP does gives up more HRs but Minnesota is actually more scoring friendly).

Not last year it wasn't. Last year GAB, was the most Run friendly park in baseball with a Park Factor of 1.153 ranked number 1 on Runs. The Metrodome was actually a little bit of a pitchers park last year and ranked number 19th with a Park Factor of .963 for Runs.

Now as for your argument of what offense's he faced you have a point there and that may have contributed to some of his improvement. But just to be fair I'll point it out that he also faced the #5th and #4th ranked offenses in baseball as a Red too. And his stats in those games were 10 IP, 3ER, 1HR, 15SO, 1 BB.

jojo
02-23-2007, 03:13 PM
Not last year it wasn't. Last year GAB, was the most Run friendly park in baseball with a Park Factor of 1.153 ranked number 1 on Runs. The Metrodome was actually a little bit of a pitchers park last year and ranked number 19th with a Park Factor of .963 for Runs.

I'm not sure where you got your 1 year PF (ESPN's are whacky) but 1 year park factors really aren't compelling...


Now as for your argument of what offense's he faced you have a point there and that may have contributed to some of his improvement. But just to be fair I'll point it out that he also faced the #5th and #4th ranked offenses in baseball as a Red too. And his stats in those games were 10 IP, 3ER, 1HR, 15SO, 1 BB.

Unless you can come up with a legitimate reason he suddenly turned into a GB pitcher with his best K/9 rate of his career while in Cincy (pitching in what you consider an ultra hitter's park based upon a screwy one year PF rating), I think sample size issues (especially given the dramatic swings in most of the metrics listed in a previous post) offers the most compelling explanation... You simply can't ignore the dramatic swings in his luck and outcomes..especially given the small number of innings and the lack of an underlying reason for the differences in outcomes......

Caveman Techie
02-23-2007, 03:36 PM
So what PF's are you using? And I used last years because last year was when he pitched in both.


Here's the whacky stats link by the way. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

jojo
02-23-2007, 03:45 PM
So what PF's are you using? And I used last years because last year was when he pitched in both.


Here's the whacky stats link by the way. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Bill James published them yearly and BBTF also has a good set that includes minor league parks as well...

I understood why you focused on '06, I' just not sure that its meaningful because of sample size...

Caveman Techie
02-23-2007, 03:49 PM
Oh, and actually I attribute most of the improved stats to the improved SO's.

Let me clarify a little bit also, I'm not looking for Lohse to improve to Harang type numbers, although I think he has the stuff just not the stamina he will fade too quickly in games. I think he could be a good #3 pitcher. And if he does that then the Reds could be in contention.

M2
02-23-2007, 04:23 PM
Disagree. They are clearly putting focus on Lohse as a target of Dick Pole's tutelege. That says to me there will be some tinkering going on. Probably minor, but at the ST stage -- where order of business #1 is getting your strength and stamina built up -- by the time we're closing on the regular season Lohse may still be working on some new wrinkle, whether it be pitch mix or whatever.

Doesn't that in and of itself indicate this is a guy who needs fixing?

I'm not saying Lohse can't improve, I'm just noting that what he's been the past few seasons hasn't been getting the job done (at least not the way the Reds will need it done). Just because they're going to try to add something more with him doesn't mean it's going to take. That's why he's a poor bet. He needs something extra than what he's been able to offer to date.

If he adds it, and like I said, I'm watching and hoping that he will, then feel free to adjust expectations accordingly, but that cart's still waiting on a horse to pull it.


When 95 of your games are in the division, darn right I'm looking at what the competition in the Central's got when I think about the Reds chances of being a winning team.

FWIW, I'm not as down on the Pirates....

Yeah, but you're making the assumption that while multiple things work out for the Reds to claw up to 85 wins, everyone else will struggle. Seems to me that people in Kyle Lohse houses ought not throw stones at Kip Wells. I was told by multiple people that a win total in the high 80s would be more than enough to win the division in 2004. Turns out you needed 105. Over the past decade exactly three teams with 85 or fewer wins have made the playoffs - '06 Cardinals, '05 Padres and '97 Astros. That's three out of 80 teams. Sorry, but I'm not counting on a fluke.

As for the Pirates, I think they'll be better than last year, but I'm reasonably sure they won't be cracking .500 this season. That's an automatic disqualifier for when you're talking about their chances of winning the division.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 04:40 PM
Doesn't that in and of itself indicate this is a guy who needs fixing?

I'm not saying Lohse can't improve, I'm just noting that what he's been the past few seasons hasn't been getting the job done (at least not the way the Reds will need it done). Just because they're going to try to add something more with him doesn't mean it's going to take. That's why he's a poor bet. He needs something extra than what he's been able to offer to date.

If he adds it, and like I said, I'm watching and hoping that he will, then feel free to adjust expectations accordingly, but that cart's still waiting on a horse to pull it.

The point is that I wouldn't put a lot of stock in what he does in ST -- first of all, because I wouldn't do so for any player, particularly an established one -- especially in that (a) they've suggested Pole will be working closely with Lohse, and (b) they've talked about having Lohse scrap his curve in favor of going with just a 3 pitch mix. This was in response to your contention that Lohse's ST performance would be telling.

Nowhere have I said Lohse needs "fixing," whatever you think that means. I have merely reported what's been reported about the coaching it appears he's getting. I like the guy's stuff, his age, his contract status. I've said that long before today. Those factors are what led me to select him as my surprise Red for 07. If you want to stake out some kind of ground whereby you disagree with me on Lohse, start there -- stuff, contract status, age. Otherwise, I don't see where we have a substantive disagreement.

M2
02-23-2007, 05:01 PM
The point is that I wouldn't put a lot of stock in what he does in ST -- first of all, because I wouldn't do so for any player, particularly an established one -- especially in that (a) they've suggested Pole will be working closely with Lohse, and (b) they've talked about having Lohse scrap his curve in favor of going with just a 3 pitch mix. This was in response to your contention that Lohse's ST performance would be telling.

You'll know in the latter portion of ST if Lohse has become more problematic for hitters. It won't be hard to spot.

You even touched upon the key. If his change is working against LHBs and he can throw everything from the same arm slot with the same motion, then he's in a place where good results can follow. If LHBs are still teeing off on that change (which is why he went to the curve in the first place) and/or his arm slot's still all over, then don't expect anything different in terms of results.

Lohse is either going to hit upon a mix that works this spring or he's going to head into the season as his usual hittable self.


Nowhere have I said Lohse needs "fixing," whatever you think that means. I have merely reported what's been reported about the coaching it appears he's getting. I like the guy's stuff, his age, his contract status. I've said that long before today. Those factors are what led me to select him as my surprise Red for 07. If you want to stake out some kind of ground whereby you disagree with me on Lohse, start there -- stuff, contract status, age. Otherwise, I don't see where we have a substantive disagreement.

You said "They are clearly putting focus on Lohse as a target of Dick Pole's tutelege. That says to me there will be some tinkering going on."

Now why would you be making a guy a special target for the pitching coach to do some tinkering if the pitcher in question didn't need fixing?

The answer is you wouldn't. The Reds' actions, the very plan you described, indicates that Kyle Lohse, as he has existed to date, is not good enough, that he will require special attention and meaningful alteration. Now, if that's where a guy is at after five-plus years in the majors, I don't see where he merits consideration as the sort of pitcher a team with winning aspirations can comfortably count on.

He's got a decent fastball-slider mix. Though his location is lacking and the heater is straight. I like his age and contract status too. If he can connect a few dots, he could be interesting. I'm just not assuming he's going to connect any dots until I actually see them get connected. That is where my disagreement with you on this matter starts and ends. Kyle Lohse has not been a good pitcher and he probably won't be in 2007. He needs a new wrinkle (e.g. a change that works against LHBs). You seem to be taking it mostly for granted he's going to add that wrinkle. I view it as hard to do, though possible. It's certainly not something I think anybody should be counting on at this moment.

lollipopcurve
02-23-2007, 05:18 PM
He's got a decent fastball-slider mix. Though his location is lacking and the heater is straight. I like his age and contract status too. If he can connect a few dots, he could be interesting. I'm just not assuming he's going to connect any dots until I actually see them get connected. That is where my disagreement with you on this matter starts and ends. Kyle Lohse has not been a good pitcher and he probably won't be in 2007. He needs a new wrinkle (e.g. a change that works against LHBs). You seem to be taking it mostly for granted he's going to add that wrinkle. I view it as hard to do, though possible. It's certainly not something I think anybody should be counting on at this moment.

Nope, that's not how I see it. I think Lohse has got enough stuff as it is -- without making any significant changes -- to give the Reds solid performance this year. If Pole/Narron give him some coaching that helps him, that's great -- it gives him a better chance to exceed expectations.

As for a change that "works against LHB," I sincerely doubt the Reds are talking about a new pitch with him. Very few guys throw more than 1 kind of changeup. It goes back to my belief that his stuff, as is, is good enough. He may need to simplify things, or trust his change more, but I don't think he needs a new offering. Of course, I could be proven wrong -- I'm just going on what I've seen and read so far.

And I'll agree with you that he needs to locate better -- but I do not think he throws a straight fastball. I think he's got some nice life and quick left-to-right run, if not a lot of run.

M2
02-23-2007, 05:43 PM
Nope, that's not how I see it. I think Lohse has got enough stuff as it is -- without making any significant changes -- to give the Reds solid performance this year.

But the Reds don't, thus the special treatment.


As for a change that "works against LHB," I sincerely doubt the Reds are talking about a new pitch with him. Very few guys throw more than 1 kind of changeup. It goes back to my belief that his stuff, as is, is good enough. He may need to simplify things, or trust his change more, but I don't think he needs a new offering. Of course, I could be proven wrong -- I'm just going on what I've seen and read so far.

I'm not talking about him learning a new change. He can stick with the one he's been working on for his entire adult life. What I am talking about is getting that change to be an effective pitch, something it's never been. He tried the curveball because he had such a poor change. It worked to a degree, but it buggered his slider (back to the slurvy problem I mentioned before). Now it's possible the Reds will attempt to drag him back to his 2003 self and hope for him to be dead league average, though being a sitting duck for LH power in the GAB could be problematic.

No guy who's allowed a 1.53 WHIP and a .301/.355/.459 line for opposing batters over the past three years is good enough as is. The Reds clearly are trying to go the extra mile to make the necessary adjustments.

mth123
02-23-2007, 07:53 PM
Oh, and actually I attribute most of the improved stats to the improved SO's.

This is a red flag for me. Improved Ks after a league change is many times an indication of hitters who haven't seen the guy before chasing stuff they won't get fooled on the next time. I'm not real confident that the bump in the K rate is a permanent change. I have similar concerns about Arroyo. Its just Arroyo will go from real good to still above average, where Lohse would likely go from average to, well, what he has basically been in his career. If Lohse was a NRI or a league minimum guy he'd be a great gamble that I'd be excited to see (knowing he'd be easy to cut loose if he bombs). At $4.2 Million, I think he'll have a hard time being worth it and he'll probably be kept around too long if he reverts to his AL self.

Caveman Techie
02-23-2007, 09:02 PM
Thats a very good point Mth123. And it may turn out to be true in Lohse case.