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View Full Version : Joey Votto, Chris Denorfia, and Homer Bailey



crazybob60
02-28-2007, 11:17 PM
Well hopefully I haven't made a mistake again, and hopefully I am placing this int he correct place, but with all the talk of guys having to have not just a stellar spring training but one where they just tear the cover off of the ball or just whiz pitches past people, well what kind of numbers or the type of play would we expect to see out of a Joey Votto (where he would not just ride the pine but actually get significant playing time), Chris Denorfia (where he would force Griffey to move to RF like right now, and him actually getting the bulk of playing time over Freel and force a trade between the two like before Spring is out), and/or Homer Bailey (where he is actually placed right into the rotation). Just curious what your guy's definition of this would be.

DoogMinAmo
02-28-2007, 11:21 PM
Votto is only playing for a mid-season callup, no matter what he does.

Denorfia has to hit for high average (.310+), and play error-free ball for Junior to be convinced, and therefore Narron.

I think Homer's spot rests on the shoulders of the other pitchers competing for the spot than him. The staff know his stuff and what he can do, they would just prefer he not do it now, but improve on it for later. However, if everyone else stinks it up, then we see Bailey. Chances are, though, due to shear numbers there will be someone to fill in.

Dracodave
02-28-2007, 11:31 PM
Honestly if this team trades Denorfia than theres something to be said about how we want our line up and defense to look like.

Denorfia is a better #2 hitter than Phillips and the best outfield defender we have. Everyone compares Denorfia to Brady Clark or Jason Micheals, I'd honestly like to have that level of contact/obp at the top of the line up, with good defense than have to worry about Freel killing himself every day.

Votto right now is seriously roadblocked by the Narron man-love-cream-jean-infatutation with Conine and Hatteberg. Plus, as far as I know it's not his bat they want him to work on but rather his over all defense at first base.

Bailey, I'll say this much. I want him to excell at the Major League level, I want him to be the ace we need so badly. Do I want him to go down like Liriano? Do I want him to risk his health and injury on a world series tomorrow like Verlander last year? No, I would rather we hold off and push him when his stamina is much better. Theres reasons for why they want to put Matt Garza (whos three years older) back in the minors because they rushed him too bad last year.

With that being said, I am not quite sure I can honestly say I want to support this whole "win now", when we have players locked up (Harrang, Arroyo) that will be here when Bailey is fully ready. I have to say.. I'd rather wait and let the cards fall into place than rush everything.

paintmered
03-01-2007, 12:12 AM
Well hopefully I haven't made a mistake again, and hopefully I am placing this in the correct place

I think it's in the right place. My opinion is when a player makes his way onto the 25-man roster (Denorfia) discussion should take place here instead of the Minor League forum, even if it includes discussion on Homer and Votto. There aren't any set rules on this - I just make judgement calls and make sure there's a permanent redirect if I move it.

crazybob60
03-01-2007, 12:16 AM
I think it's in the right place. My opinion is when a player makes his way onto the 25-man roster (Denorfia) discussion should take place here instead of the Minor League forum, even if it includes discussion on Homer and Votto. There aren't any set rules on this - I just make judgement calls and make sure there's a permanent redirect if I move it.

ok, cool, thank you for the advice on that one....always wondered about it and although I do a have a number of posts, I am still fairly new here myself. I will get the hang of it, once I do, well WATCH OUT!!!

paintmered
03-01-2007, 12:34 AM
ok, cool, thank you for the advice on that one....always wondered about it and although I do a have a number of posts, I am still fairly new here myself. I will get the hang of it, once I do, well WATCH OUT!!!

I've been here nearly six years and I'm still getting the hang of it. :)

redsmetz
03-01-2007, 05:47 AM
Honestly if this team trades Denorfia than theres something to be said about how we want our line up and defense to look like.

Denorfia is a better #2 hitter than Phillips and the best outfield defender we have. Everyone compares Denorfia to Brady Clark or Jason Micheals, I'd honestly like to have that level of contact/obp at the top of the line up, with good defense than have to worry about Freel killing himself every day.

Votto right now is seriously roadblocked by the Narron man-love-cream-jean-infatutation with Conine and Hatteberg. Plus, as far as I know it's not his bat they want him to work on but rather his over all defense at first base.

Bailey, I'll say this much. I want him to excell at the Major League level, I want him to be the ace we need so badly. Do I want him to go down like Liriano? Do I want him to risk his health and injury on a world series tomorrow like Verlander last year? No, I would rather we hold off and push him when his stamina is much better. Theres reasons for why they want to put Matt Garza (whos three years older) back in the minors because they rushed him too bad last year.

With that being said, I am not quite sure I can honestly say I want to support this whole "win now", when we have players locked up (Harrang, Arroyo) that will be here when Bailey is fully ready. I have to say.. I'd rather wait and let the cards fall into place than rush everything.

I'd agree with everything you say here except for the "man-love" comment. I think it's absolutely clear that both Hatteberg and Conine are caretaker players for the position while Votto continues his development. He may well be up by mid-year and if so, I think they'll move Hatteberg who has the better structured contract, although I'd prefer they move Conine, but we'll see. I think ultimately the 1st base set up this year will prove to be a good move for the team, even if it's Hatt and Conine the whole year and Votto makes the club next.

You have articulated Homer's situation the best. Give him time. It may be this year, but I won't lose any sleep if its not and he comes up very strong for next year. But this year would be great.

I too think ultimately Freel or Denorfia will be moved and I think Freel is the better candidate for that. He's got value in lots of places that we can cover with other players and I think he has more direct trade value for the club filling the same role elsewhere that he does here.

bucksfan2
03-01-2007, 10:02 AM
I think the first 50 games will determine in which direction this roster will go. I will be disappointed if Freel isn't traded this offseason. I guess you could trade Deno as well but I think Freel is overvalued and Deno undervalued right now. I hope Deno will be the everyday CF by midway through this season but I doubt it.

Votto is behind an aging road block at 1b. I see no reason for Conine to be on this team. I would like to see Hatty get the bulk of the pt at 1b because he is the most professional hitter the reds have. I would have liked to see the reds bring up Votto by the all star break to hand the job over to him to get his feet wet. But unfortunatly because of Narron's man crush for older, declining, veteran players it looks as if Votto will spend the whole season in AAA.

I see Baily staying in Louisville for at least half of the season. His call up will be based upon either injuries or how well Saarloos, Lohse, or Wilson pitch. If Milton stays healthy I think he stays in the rotation because of his contract. Wilson is the type of aging veteran that seems to have a soft spot in Narron's heart. IMO Saarloos and Lohse will have productive years and I see Baily breaking in after the all star break to replace Milton whe he has knee troubles yet again.

If the reds play well for the first 50-80 games I think you will see the veteran players continue to take up the bulk of the playing time only to hurt the team as the season winds down and into 08.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 11:48 AM
I see Baily staying in Louisville for at least half of the season. His call up will be based upon either injuries or how well Saarloos, Lohse, or Wilson pitch. If Milton stays healthy I think he stays in the rotation because of his contract. Wilson is the type of aging veteran that seems to have a soft spot in Narron's heart. IMO Saarloos and Lohse will have productive years and I see Baily breaking in after the all star break to replace Milton whe he has knee troubles yet again.


You honestly believe Paul Wilson has a chance to being on this team? The only way I can see him making this team is is Saarloos, Belisle, Ramirez and Victor Santos all have their arms fall off.

redsmetz
03-01-2007, 11:58 AM
Votto is behind an aging road block at 1b. I see no reason for Conine to be on this team. I would like to see Hatty get the bulk of the pt at 1b because he is the most professional hitter the reds have. I would have liked to see the reds bring up Votto by the all star break to hand the job over to him to get his feet wet. But unfortunatly because of Narron's man crush for older, declining, veteran players it looks as if Votto will spend the whole season in AAA.

Frankly, I think this is horse hocky. I think there is a clear plan in place with regards to the 1st base position for 2007, as I said in my earlier post. Votto isn't being blocked. If the new philosophy is that minor leaguers make each step, Votto is going to do some time in AAA developing his game. It may be brief if he tears the living daylights off the ball, but he's going to be there. He's not being blocked by any hooey such as "man love" for older players. Sheesh!

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 12:17 PM
Frankly, I think this is horse hocky. I think there is a clear plan in place with regards to the 1st base position for 2007, as I said in my earlier post. Votto isn't being blocked. If the new philosophy is that minor leaguers make each step, Votto is going to do some time in AAA developing his game. It may be brief if he tears the living daylights off the ball, but he's going to be there. He's not being blocked by any hooey such as "man love" for older players. Sheesh!

I get that the team wants to implement the "every step" thing for the minor leagues.... but what happens if Joey Votto is actually the best choice for first base this season? He still gets sent to Louisville. The team isnt going to be 'stunting his growth' as he will be 23 this entire season. Spring Training is not close to being over, but I am confident that if Hatteberg were to hit .260 and Votto were to hit .340, that Votto still is going to Louisville because of a 'plan'....

redsmetz
03-01-2007, 12:19 PM
Frankly, I think this is horse hocky. I think there is a clear plan in place with regards to the 1st base position for 2007, as I said in my earlier post. Votto isn't being blocked. If the new philosophy is that minor leaguers make each step, Votto is going to do some time in AAA developing his game. It may be brief if he tears the living daylights off the ball, but he's going to be there. He's not being blocked by any hooey such as "man love" for older players. Sheesh!

Let me follow up without the vitriol.

I think, as I said, that Wayne has a plan for developing players and an integral part of that plan is that each minor league level has a purpose and that players can learn something at each level, even if it's just for a little bit. I remember Krivsky saying once, very clearly, we have AAA for a reason.

That said, I think it's evident that both Conine and Hatteberg are not there as roadblocks, but rather as stopgaps. Look at their contracts. Conine is signed for this year only and Hatteberg has this year's deal and a cluboption for next year. We only have about 3.5 Million tied up between the two of them. Either can be dealt this year if need be and I believe Hatt's contract is very attractive.

I think ultimately this organization will be the better progressing players in this way. The days of our best prospects coming out of AA right to the bigs need to be over. We have not often been served by that.

bucksfan2
03-01-2007, 12:42 PM
You honestly believe Paul Wilson has a chance to being on this team? The only way I can see him making this team is is Saarloos, Belisle, Ramirez and Victor Santos all have their arms fall off.

Narron has already been quoted this spring as saying that Wilson has a shot at making this rotatoin. I do not want him anywhere near this rotation but I think there is a shot that he is.


That said, I think it's evident that both Conine and Hatteberg are not there as roadblocks, but rather as stopgaps. Look at their contracts. Conine is signed for this year only and Hatteberg has this year's deal and a cluboption for next year. We only have about 3.5 Million tied up between the two of them. Either can be dealt this year if need be and I believe Hatt's contract is very attractive.


Then why did the reds TRADE for Conine? He has no buisness on this team. Right now in camp the reds have Hatty, Castro, Valentine, Belhorn, and Freel who all can play 1b so I dont understand why they went out and got Conine. I would have handed the job outright to Hatty and if he struggled then I would have looked for other options, Conine not being one of them.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 01:02 PM
Then why did the reds TRADE for Conine? He has no buisness on this team. Right now in camp the reds have Hatty, Castro, Valentine, Belhorn, and Freel who all can play 1b so I dont understand why they went out and got Conine. I would have handed the job outright to Hatty and if he struggled then I would have looked for other options, Conine not being one of them.

Firstly, why we got Conine.... I was under the impression it was to platoon with Hatteberg at first base. If that is all he does, then fine. If he does more than that, the Reds are not being smart.
Castro has 7 games played at first base, for a total of 39 innings.
Valentin has 11 games played at first base, for a total of 56 innings.
Bellhorn has 163 innings at first base in 41 games.
Ryan Freel has never played first base.

None of those guys are first basemen really. With that said, I think Conine is wasting space on this roster if he is anything but a pinch hitter and RH hitter at first base.

redsmetz
03-01-2007, 01:03 PM
Then why did the reds TRADE for Conine? He has no buisness on this team. Right now in camp the reds have Hatty, Castro, Valentine, Belhorn, and Freel who all can play 1b so I dont understand why they went out and got Conine. I would have handed the job outright to Hatty and if he struggled then I would have looked for other options, Conine not being one of them.

What? They traded for Conine to play back up at 1st base and to give them added depth.

Of all the players you name who can play 1st base, aside from Hatteberg, they've appeared in a total of 59 games at first base, compared to 935 games for Conine.

Freel - 0
Castro - 7
Bellhorn - 41
Valentin - 11

Now there's some depth for you. Heck, Adam Dunn's played more games at 1st base than this entire group of players.

tbball10
03-01-2007, 01:04 PM
man i'd hate it if hatteberg hit like he did last year again... he killed us

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 01:07 PM
man i'd hate it if hatteberg hit like he did last year again... he killed us
Nothing about his past history suggests he will do so though.

Superdude
03-01-2007, 03:42 PM
Votto right now is seriously roadblocked by the Narron man-love-cream-jean-infatutation with Conine and Hatteberg.

Narron just had a quote in some paper about how much he was impressed by Votto's bat during the live batting practice. I still don't think there's any way he makes the team, but I don't think they'll hold him down too if he rapes in AAA.

Ltlabner
03-01-2007, 03:44 PM
Narron just had a quote in some paper about how much he was impressed by Votto's bat during the live batting practice. I still don't think there's any way he makes the team, but I don't think they'll hold him down too if he rapes in AAA.

The police in Lousivlle might have something to say about that.

Dracodave
03-01-2007, 03:52 PM
That comment was partly sarcastic. Notice that I said it was also Votto's defense that was blocking his way up not his bat. I remember articles last year about how his bat was nice, but it was footwork at first they wanted him to work with.

Thanks for agreeing with my assesment though, even if you didnt agree with my man-love statement.

I don't have a problem with either Hatteberg or Conine (outside of Jeffies age) being on the team, or in a platoon, or getting at-bats. They are NOT going to stunt Votto's growth, or block him.

Midseason, I think you'll see more of Votto. Atleast then teams in the race, will want to obtains veterns to help. We might get usefull pieces out of Hatteberg and anything for Conine.

redsmetz
03-01-2007, 07:39 PM
That comment was partly sarcastic. Notice that I said it was also Votto's defense that was blocking his way up not his bat. I remember articles last year about how his bat was nice, but it was footwork at first they wanted him to work with.

Thanks for agreeing with my assesment though, even if you didnt agree with my man-love statement.

I don't have a problem with either Hatteberg or Conine (outside of Jeffies age) being on the team, or in a platoon, or getting at-bats. They are NOT going to stunt Votto's growth, or block him.

Midseason, I think you'll see more of Votto. Atleast then teams in the race, will want to obtains veterns to help. We might get usefull pieces out of Hatteberg and anything for Conine.

Frankly, I'm coming to believe that there is a method to what Wayne's been doing this offseason, and the Hatteberg signing (structured as it is) and the trade for Conine are part of that. I think they've both been done with an eye on the future and the development of Votto. Either contract, as I said earlier, is moveable during the season should Joey prove ready.

I think the same is true with some of these other contracts, particularly some of the pitchers. We've got a glut, obviously of varying talent levels, but any number of pitchers could be moved, even if its just for a middling prospect (e.g. Cormier - and I think last year's extension had that in mind too).

I can't say it borders on genius, but it could prove to be that way. Of course, it could crash and burn. It will be very interesting.

Dracodave
03-01-2007, 08:28 PM
I have a strong feeling that you'll start to see more of the vet's moved if teams have problems throughout spring. I think we'll see a every day guy moved as well, if not three.

With the way Wayne holds his cards, I'm not suprised they are keeping mum about Denorfia. They seem to be marketing Freel, listening to todays ST game where Freel tried to steal two bases. It just seems they seem to be setting him up as trade-bait.

And do you really think if Wayne plans on doing anything he'd even tell the players? No, they are pushing Denorfia, Hamilton and Votto into success. Why? Challenge them, make them SHOW they can handle the pressure of the full grind. Don't just hand them positions. Does Denorfia deserve Centerfield? Yes, but I have to say I'd love to see him come out and rake with the bat as well.

That being said...

It's going to be a interesting spring.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2007, 09:16 PM
A solid first step for Bailey
His intrasquad inning had Reds' attention
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

SARASOTA, Fla. - Homer Bailey used his spring debut to show the Reds brass he did more than hunting and fishing this offseason.

Bailey's outing Wednesday in an intrasquad game was nothing to get worked up about: one inning, one hit, one walk and one double-play ball.

But it was noteworthy that he threw as many changeups and curveballs as he did fastballs. Bailey's 98-mph fastball is major league-ready right now.

The Reds' party line on Bailey is when his off-speed stuff comes around, he'll be in the big leagues.

"I have to make sure I can show them I am ready and that I worked hard in the offseason on the things they wanted me to," he said.

In other words, to show he's ready for the majors. Bailey nodded knowingly when asked if it was different for Bronson Arroyo, who started for the other side in the intrasquad game than for him.

"Definitely," he said. "Those guys have spots locked. I know coming into the spring that one of the things they wanted to see from me was how I could control my off-speed stuff - that it was improved."

Bailey, a 20-year-old right-hander, will have to pitch extremely well to make the Reds out of camp. Based on Wednesday's outing, he's off to a good start.

"He looked good," said Adam Dunn, who walked on seven pitches. "I'm on the bandwagon."

Javier Valentin, who caught Bailey, gave a similar review.

"He knows what he's doing," Valentin said. "He looks like he belongs here."

Bailey's nominally in a race for the fifth starter spot based on his 7-1, 1.59 ERA performance at Double-A Chattanooga in the second half of last season. The Reds would be content to have him start the season at Triple-A Louisville.

But no one in camp is getting more attention than Bailey.

"I wanted to see him throw," Dunn said. "I was as curious as anyone else."

With the pressure to perform, Bailey's unspectacular outing Wednesday became a bit impressive.

"It's tough being in his shoes," Arroyo said. "It's like walking into a basketball camp and you're going to make the team or not by shooting 10 free throws. You're like, 'I got to seven or eight.' If you're John Stockton, you can clank eight of them and it doesn't matter because they know what you can do in a game. It's definitely more nerve-wracking for the young guys."

Wednesday, Bailey at least earned the right to shoot 10 more times.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070301/SPT04/703010344/1071

berryluther
03-02-2007, 08:38 AM
The only way Votto makes the team or is a mid season call up is when is is ready for the job fulltime. Why in the world would they bring him up to sit the bench? When he could get ab's in AAA.

bucksfan2
03-02-2007, 08:50 AM
Here is my thing. Hatty and Conine are pretty much known commodities. You pretty much know what your are going to get. Neither of these guys are going to be a difference maker on this club. They are not going to be the type of player who is going to put this team over the top. Votto on the other hand is kind of a question mark. He has the kind of bat that possibly could be a difference maker. But he is also going to struggle for a bit when he is called up. I would hate to see Votto deserve a shot out of spring and not get the gig because of Hatty and Conine and then spend the whole season in AAA because of the two headed monster at 1b.