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dougdirt
03-01-2007, 02:29 PM
Homer Bailey came in at #5.
Jay Bruce came in at #14.
Joey Votto came in at #43.
Drew Stubbs came in at #88.

Here is what I dont get, in the comments for the players it says this for Jay Bruce "Beat out Maybin and Upton for top-prospect honors in the Midwest League last summer". Then Maybin ranks #6 and Upton at #9. No sense there.....
Also note that Johnny Cueto was listed as someone who barely missed the list, so the Reds were a few Japanese imports away from having 5 Top 100 players.

Check out the entire list Here at baseballamerica.com (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263445.html)

M2
03-01-2007, 02:38 PM
I'm surprised at the Stubbs rating.

Best showing for the Reds in a long time, the real key will be that the system's top six guys don't slide in 2007.

bucksfan2
03-01-2007, 03:06 PM
Did they rank the organization as well??

edabbs44
03-01-2007, 03:08 PM
They have Stubbs flagged as a "risk factor", with his ceiling being Cameron and his floor being Keith Reed.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 03:10 PM
They have Stubbs flagged as a "risk factor", with his ceiling being Cameron and his floor being Keith Reed.

For what its worth, they also have Brandon Wood flagged.

edabbs44
03-01-2007, 03:16 PM
For what its worth, they also have Brandon Wood flagged.

Not taking a shot at Stubbs, just flagging it for informational purposes.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 03:45 PM
This is from the Baseball America Chat

Q:Bertram from Taiwan asks:
Drew Stubbs in the top 100?!?! Are you serious?

A: Jim Callis:
Yes, we are. I think people miss the point on Drew Stubbs. Stubbs may never hit for a high average. But if he hits .250, he still probably will be a 20-20 guy playing Gold Glove defense in center field. That's a very valuable player.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 03:48 PM
Q: J.P. from Midwest asks:
Just how close was it between Hughes & Bailey for their respective rankings? What's the split between your Baseball America staff when answering the question of which of them has the higher ceiling?

A: Jim Callis:
Very close. Of the four of us who did the most work putting together the Top 100, three of us had them next to each other on our lists. Three of us gave the advantage to Hughes, one to Bailey. Bailey's ceiling might be a little higher because I think at his best his stuff is a little better, but Hughes has a little more polish right now.

15fan
03-01-2007, 04:31 PM
But if he hits .250, he still probably will be a 20-20 guy playing Gold Glove defense in center field. That's a very valuable player.

That sounds like the kind of guy who can have a home in the AL. But in the NL where the pitcher has to bat, that makes 2 of the 9 batters pretty easy outs each time through the lineup. Puts more pressure on the other 7 bats to be high performers.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 04:34 PM
That sounds like the kind of guy who can have a home in the AL. But in the NL where the pitcher has to bat, that makes 2 of the 9 batters pretty easy outs each time through the lineup. Puts more pressure on the other 7 bats to be high performers.

Not exactly. Batting average isnt everyting. Everything points to Stubbs having very good plate discipline. If he can draw walks and keep his on base percentage at a decent clip, say .350, then he is quite valuable.

Also this on Jay Bruce from the Baseball America chat

Q: Edabbs44 from RedsZone.com asks:
Could you explain this statement about Jay Bruce: "Beat out Maybin and Upton for top-prospect honors in the Midwest League last summer" And then you guys ranked Upton and Maybin higher than Bruce here? Were the Midwest rankings done by sources outside of BA?

A: Jim Callis:
They're different lists. I did the Midwest League, and those rankings are at least mildly influenced by how the player did in the context of the league. I also voted for Bruce ahead of Maybin and Upton, but my BA cohorts didn't share the same opinion.

Nice job edabbs. I asked a very similar question.

maniem
03-01-2007, 05:01 PM
Not a bad showing for the Reds, especially compared to the rest of the NL Central. Number of prospects per team in parentheses with the player rankings shown below:

Reds (5, if including Cueto)
5
14
43
88
104

Cards (2)
29
70

Astros (3)
38
58
85

Cubs (3)
49
52
80

Brewers (3)
16
26
91

Pirates (3)
13
69
74

Who knows, by 2009, the Reds just might have themselves a solid, young, and contending team.

Outshined_One
03-01-2007, 05:55 PM
Some of the decisions on ranking players and the fact that they even put certain guys on the list in the first place was head-scratching. I hate complaining about an east coast bias, but seriously, some of these choices seemed to have been made based on the popularity and hype three certain teams receive and spew out whenever possible more than anything else.

Maybe I'm mistaken in my assessment and all of the Mets/Red Sox/Yankees prospects on that list I take issue with will prove me wrong in spades. But thus far, color me unimpressed.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 06:18 PM
The only prospect from NYY/NYM/BOS I take seriously as deserving their ranking is Phil Hughes.

M2
03-01-2007, 06:23 PM
Some of the decisions on ranking players and the fact that they even put certain guys on the list in the first place was head-scratching. I hate complaining about an east coast bias, but seriously, some of these choices seemed to have been made based on the popularity and hype three certain teams receive and spew out whenever possible more than anything else.

Maybe I'm mistaken in my assessment and all of the Mets/Red Sox/Yankees prospects on that list I take issue with will prove me wrong in spades. But thus far, color me unimpressed.

I think those teams plus the Dodgers and Braves tend to get their prospects overrated. That said, I'd sure love to have Pelfrey, Ellsbury and Tabata in the Reds' system.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 06:32 PM
I think those teams plus the Dodgers and Braves tend to get their prospects overrated. That said, I'd sure love to have Pelfrey, Ellsbury and Tabata in the Reds' system.

Sure.... but for how much Bailey gets for being 1 pitch....he is polished compared to Pelfrey who literally is all fastball. Great fastball, but its all he has. I wouldnt trade the Reds top 3 for any other teams top 3.

Nugget
03-01-2007, 07:00 PM
The issue I see with the REDSZONE problems with Stubbs is the same as with Gonzo. The REDS have been an all offense team and have been blessed with some above average offense in the key defensive positions. But if you look at the historical prototypical SS and CF, they aren't your Larkin, Griffey, Jeter types but your Dave Concepcions and Mike Camerons.

cincyinco
03-01-2007, 07:17 PM
I think those teams plus the Dodgers and Braves tend to get their prospects overrated. That said, I'd sure love to have Pelfrey, Ellsbury and Tabata in the Reds' system.


Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

dougdirt
03-01-2007, 07:20 PM
Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

Heck, give me Kershaw and you can keep the other 3.

cincyinco
03-01-2007, 07:51 PM
Dont forget Fmart... I normally agree that the "major" markets get overhyped prospects, but Tabata, Fmart, Kershaw are 3 that I believe to be nothing but legit outside of Hughes.

Outshined_One
03-01-2007, 08:27 PM
NYY/NYM/BOS minor league guys I'm fine with rankings-wise:

Phil Hughes (might be a tad overrated, but aside from Homer, I can't think of a potentially better pitching prospect right now)
Humberto Sanchez (weight issues concern me, but he's been well-thought of since his DET days)
Daniel Bard (I liked him coming out of college, should be fun to see howhe develops)

That's pretty much about it. Everyone else I either think should be lower on the list or shouldn't be on the list to begin with.

blumj
03-01-2007, 09:39 PM
NYY/NYM/BOS minor league guys I'm fine with rankings-wise:

Phil Hughes (might be a tad overrated, but aside from Homer, I can't think of a potentially better pitching prospect right now)
Humberto Sanchez (weight issues concern me, but he's been well-thought of since his DET days)
Daniel Bard (I liked him coming out of college, should be fun to see howhe develops)

That's pretty much about it. Everyone else I either think should be lower on the list or shouldn't be on the list to begin with.
I think Clay Buchholz is going to really surprise some people. I actually don't like the Bard ranking, throw a professional pitch or show me an off-speed pitch worth discussing.

edabbs44
03-01-2007, 11:32 PM
Not exactly. Batting average isnt everyting. Everything points to Stubbs having very good plate discipline. If he can draw walks and keep his on base percentage at a decent clip, say .350, then his is quite valuable.

Also this on Jay Bruce from the Baseball America chat

Q: Edabbs44 from RedsZone.com asks:
Could you explain this statement about Jay Bruce: "Beat out Maybin and Upton for top-prospect honors in the Midwest League last summer" And then you guys ranked Upton and Maybin higher than Bruce here? Were the Midwest rankings done by sources outside of BA?

A: Jim Callis:
They're different lists. I did the Midwest League, and those rankings are at least mildly influenced by how the player did in the context of the league. I also voted for Bruce ahead of Maybin and Upton, but my BA cohorts didn't share the same opinion.

Nice job edabbs. I asked a very similar question.

Nothing like some free advertising. :)

M2
03-02-2007, 02:01 AM
Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

I prefer Elbert. My guess is Kershaw's the next Greg Miller.

mbgrayson
03-02-2007, 03:10 AM
In last years top 100 from BA, the Reds only had 2 players: Bailey at #38, and Bruce at #76. Nice to see the Reds moving up. This, in addition to winning more minor league games last year, is a good sign for coming years.

Benihana
03-02-2007, 11:35 AM
I can't believe Stubbs ranks higher than Cueto or Wood. This must be the BA draft-position bias coming out. That said, if Stubbs and AGonz are regular lineup fixtures in 2009, the Reds better be getting very strong offensive production out of every other position.

Jay Bruce, Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto can hopefully all fall into that mold- if they remain with the club, now if we can only get a catcher who can hit. What are the chances David Ross can maintain his level of offensive production from last summer?

Cedric
03-04-2007, 11:03 AM
But if he hits .250, he still probably will be a 20-20 guy playing Gold Glove defense in center field. That's a very valuable player.

That sounds like the kind of guy who can have a home in the AL. But in the NL where the pitcher has to bat, that makes 2 of the 9 batters pretty easy outs each time through the lineup. Puts more pressure on the other 7 bats to be high performers.

Sure, but I can't remember a team in my life that had 8 players great at hitting the ball and catching the ball. At Stubbs position you better be willing to give away a teeny bit at the plate for the absolute above average work the guy does in the field.

I'm not surprised that Stubbs got ranked in the top 100. He's probably one of the ten best athletes in the minors that has an actual pedigree of some sort. He's really just gotta ops in the .750 range to be a very valuable player. That makes him in some ways a much riskier project than some made him out to be.

There is still a ton of risk mind you, but he isn't the total raw package.