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View Full Version : Has WayneK pulled another rabbit out of the hat



UK Reds Fan
03-03-2007, 10:25 PM
As much grief as some have given Krivsky..."The Trade" being the lightning rod and deservedly so...

With Hamilton, albeit premature, looking to be an improvement to the roster and maybe a big-time improvement isn't this proof that WayneK keeps a solid eye for potential talent laying on other rosters that we can pick up for beans?

1 and 2. Phillips and Ross last year for nothing.
3. Arroyo for a talented but excess player for an arm we sorely needed.
4. I have to give him credit for Hatteburg at 500k last year. The guy was solid and fit the role we needed on this team to a tea.

Now Hamilton looks to be added to that list of great finds. I'm intrigued to see if Sarloos can pick it up this year and be a steal for our pitching-starved rotation.

I think the job WayneK has done has been very solid thus far. A few warts on the pitching evaluations, but more positives then negatives for the team so far. The next biggest item is how do WayneK's drafts turn out for the future and then we'll have the best idea of where we are.

redsmetz
03-03-2007, 10:44 PM
And both Thom Brennaman and Jeff Brantley were raving about the pick up of Bobby Livingston during today's game. I think this is going to be an intriguing year.

TOBTTReds
03-03-2007, 11:07 PM
And both Thom Brennaman and Jeff Brantley were raving about the pick up of Bobby Livingston during today's game. I think this is going to be an intriguing year.

That's what is so exciting about this year. There are a lot of question marks this year, but most are GOOD question marks:

When is Homer/Votto going to bust in on the scene?
Is Josh Hamilton for real? He could absolutely explode this year to be a stud.
Adam Dunn, another batting coach, a new determination.
How will Jay Bruce mature at the next level?
Who is this Bobby Livingston? Is this another steal?

Col_ IN Reds fan
03-03-2007, 11:30 PM
Usually wins are not that important in Spring Training, but a team like the Reds with many question marks it can only help. This is a great time of year. With the NCAA tourney , baseball and Spring right around the corner.

SoTxRedsFan
03-04-2007, 12:13 AM
I hope so.

jmac
03-04-2007, 01:19 AM
What has impressed me most on Hamilton is ...he is doing alot of this against lefties.
As far as Livingston...they were telling his minor league stats today and as they said, it's hard to figure a team letting him get away.

jmcclain19
03-04-2007, 01:41 AM
Usually wins are not that important in Spring Training, but a team like the Reds with many question marks it can only help. This is a great time of year. With the NCAA tourney , baseball and Spring right around the corner.

FWIW - the Reds won the most ST games in baseball last year and finished below .500.

MartyFan
03-04-2007, 02:01 AM
While I am rooting for Hamilton I still think it may be a bit early to add him to the roster. If he keeps hitting at a .500 clip as we get further into the Spring Training...He's in!

In addition to Livingston the one player that Special K has picked up that I am really intrigued with is Saarloos...4 quality pitches and working on a 5th...he is the one that has me the most curious.

dougdirt
03-04-2007, 02:05 AM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.

5ToolPlaya
03-04-2007, 05:04 AM
Add me to the Hamilton bandwagon.

WMR
03-04-2007, 07:59 AM
While I am rooting for Hamilton I still think it may be a bit early to add him to the roster. If he keeps hitting at a .500 clip as we get further into the Spring Training...He's in!

In addition to Livingston the one player that Special K has picked up that I am really intrigued with is Saarloos...4 quality pitches and working on a 5th...he is the one that has me the most curious.

He'll be on the roster. They're not going to lose him after going through all this hullabaloo.

icehole3
03-04-2007, 08:24 AM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.


I agree he was on the wavier wire for a reason.

RANDY IN INDY
03-04-2007, 08:46 AM
I want to see Hamilton succeed, in a big way, but you have to remember that most of the pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs right now, just trying to get their arms going. The hitters are always far ahead of the pitchers at this point. When they start mixing in their breaking pitches and changing speeds is when we all will see how much the layoff has hurt Josh Hamilton. It is great to see that he is making solid contact and driving the ball to all fields. I am much happier to see that than if he were pulling the ball all the time. That tells me that he is making adjustments and gives me a lot of hope that he can do the same when they start mixing it up.

It's a great story and I wish him the very best and hope he makes it the story of the year.

jojo
03-04-2007, 08:52 AM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.


Absofreakinlutely concerning Livingston...... And Saarloos has 4 quality pitches while working on a fifth? I guess the first requisite of a quality pitch in my mind, is that it can be thrown for strikes. The second requisite is that it can be used to induce outs. There isn't much evidence that Saarloos has one quality pitch IMHO. He may look nasty but his K/BB rate hasn't been over 1 since 2003. He gets groundballs... so really rather than having 4 quality pitches, he crosses his fingers alot.

Concerning Hamilton. He's a geat personal interest story but really he's having a pedestrian spring compared to Dunn (.667/.750/2.000), Freel (.800./.833/1.200), Hatteberg (.600/.600/1.400), Phillips (.500/.500/1.500) and Keppinger (.750/.750/1.125). This spring suggests the Reds are on track to score 1458 runs this season while only giving up 486. That suggests they'll have a record of 146-16. Yes...that's 146 wins....an all time record! I'd be less enthusiastic if the sample size wasn't so large. I'm thinking that will make them dark horses for the world series? Wow...and people want to talk about Josh Hamilton? I understand that his 12 at bats last week completely trump the 1060 in low minors where he only had an OPS of .807 or the 89 at bats he had in AA ball where he went .180/.221/.236. It's so obvious. But even so, what are his realistic chances of making a club that is going to win 146 games?

Redhook
03-04-2007, 09:04 AM
FWIW - the Reds won the most ST games in baseball last year and finished below .500.

True, but the Reds used the momentum from Spring Training and had a great month of April which put them in contention for most of the year.

RANDY IN INDY
03-04-2007, 09:05 AM
How do you say a guy is having a pedestrian spring after 3 games?

jojo
03-04-2007, 09:12 AM
How do you say a guy is having a pedestrian spring after 3 games?

you probably don't notice the flowers in the spring or the songbirds either....

icehole3
03-04-2007, 09:13 AM
I want to see Hamilton succeed, in a big way, but you have to remember that most of the pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs right now, just trying to get their arms going. The hitters are always far ahead of the pitchers at this point. When they start mixing in their breaking pitches and changing speeds is when we all will see how much the layoff has hurt Josh Hamilton. It is great to see that he is making solid contact and driving the ball to all fields. I am much happier to see that than if he were pulling the ball all the time. That tells me that he is making adjustments and gives me a lot of hope that he can do the same when they start mixing it up.

It's a great story and I wish him the very best and hope he makes it the story of the year.


Brantley commented the most impressive thing he saw with Hamilton was that he went the other way yesterday with some LH reliever's offspeed pitch that Hamilton slapped to left for a line drive single. Yeah I wanna see for myself and Im not expecting him to bat .300, would be happy if he plays solid OF defense and can show some Willie Mo type power in spots...things I think this kid can do easily. Now if he gets to the majors and strikes more than Dunn and has no clue in the field then it was still a good story this spring and go ahead and try to work out a trade with the Marlins because they will probably not want him back anyway if he sucks in the majors.

RANDY IN INDY
03-04-2007, 09:38 AM
you probably don't notice the flowers in the spring or the songbirds either....
.

RANDY IN INDY
03-04-2007, 09:41 AM
My bad, jojo! I get it now.

jojo
03-04-2007, 09:44 AM
.

There was just a hint of sarcasm in the original post you referred too....


:fineprint:

jojo
03-04-2007, 09:45 AM
My bad, jojo! I get it now.

:beerme:

RANDY IN INDY
03-04-2007, 09:48 AM
:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:

:lol:

Spitball
03-04-2007, 10:11 AM
Absofreakinlutely...

“I became an optimist when I discovered that I wasn't going to win any more games by being anything else.”-Earl Weaver

It's spring. Baseball is around the corner. Hope fills the air. Life is good. :)

RFS62
03-04-2007, 10:23 AM
I want to see Hamilton succeed, in a big way, but you have to remember that most of the pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs right now, just trying to get their arms going. The hitters are always far ahead of the pitchers at this point. When they start mixing in their breaking pitches and changing speeds is when we all will see how much the layoff has hurt Josh Hamilton. It is great to see that he is making solid contact and driving the ball to all fields. I am much happier to see that than if he were pulling the ball all the time. That tells me that he is making adjustments and gives me a lot of hope that he can do the same when they start mixing it up.

It's a great story and I wish him the very best and hope he makes it the story of the year.




Yep. He's a compelling story, right out of Hollywood if it goes best case scenario.

But we're a long way from that point. It sure is fun to watch.

Thank God they're playing games again.

:beerme:

mth123
03-04-2007, 10:39 AM
Absofreakinlutely concerning Livingston...... And Saarloos has 4 quality pitches while working on a fifth? I guess the first requisite of a quality pitch in my mind, is that it can be thrown for strikes. The second requisite is that it can be used to induce outs. There isn't much evidence that Saarloos has one quality pitch IMHO. He may look nasty but his K/BB rate hasn't been over 1 since 2003. He gets groundballs... so really rather than having 4 quality pitches, he crosses his fingers alot.

Concerning Hamilton. He's a geat personal interest story but really he's having a pedestrian spring compared to Dunn (.667/.750/2.000), Freel (.800./.833/1.200), Hatteberg (.600/.600/1.400), Phillips (.500/.500/1.500) and Keppinger (.750/.750/1.125). This spring suggests the Reds are on track to score 1458 runs this season while only giving up 486. That suggests they'll have a record of 146-16. Yes...that's 146 wins....an all time record! I'd be less enthusiastic if the sample size wasn't so large. I'm thinking that will make them dark horses for the world series? Wow...and people want to talk about Josh Hamilton? I understand that his 12 at bats last week completely trump the 1060 in low minors where he only had an OPS of .807 or the 89 at bats he had in AA ball where he went .180/.221/.236. It's so obvious. But even so, what are his realistic chances of making a club that is going to win 146 games?

Agree on Saarloos. Raving about his movement is nice and all, but if his movement is out of the zone, it won't fool hitters into chasing it unless it is real hard stuff. He doesn't throw hard enough for his type of movement to be successful IMO. For a guy like him success comes when he has movement inside the strike zone. That forces guys to swing and either miss or make poor contact. Seeing how his strike-out to walk rates worsened as he moved up the competition ladder (dramatically fewer K's and more walks), I have to think his movement is frequently out of the zone and hitters are laying off. That would put the pitcher in a position of laying one in there to get the needed strike. Seeing Saarloos high home run rate even though he's is a ground ball pitcher is also evidence of this occurring.

We'll have to see if the story that these numbers tell is true or if Saarloos gets more command of his movement and can keep it in the zone. I'm not real high on him but am a little more optimistic than when he was acquired. The Reds could do worse in the 5 spot but I don't want to expose Belisle or Ramirez to waivers to keep Saarlos around. The Reds need to move a few bodies to protect the guys who could fill cheap back-end or swing man roles in the upcoming years where contention seems like a real possibility.

As for Hamilton, I keep him no matter what. If the Devil Rays won't agree to make him the PTBNL, I keep him around. To me he's a lefty Wily Mo Pena with defensive ability and baseball skills. I do what it takes to make him Reds property and keep him clean. I have to think that if the D-Rays see that they aren't going to get him back anyway, they may make him the PTBNL to avoid giving up another player. The Reds could then send him down and develop him. The Reds just need to not weaken in this area. Acquiring that type of talent is worth the investment of the 25th spot if that remains necessary. He might be a real productive bat by 2009 or so which is when this team really projects to move up into the upper echelon IMO.

OnBaseMachine
03-04-2007, 11:11 AM
I disagree with mth on Saarloos. I don't know what it is, but I have a strong feeling that Kirk Saarloos is going to have a good 2007 season with the Reds. There is just something I like about the guy. His movement on his pitches is very good, which is always a good thing. You mentioned his movement as a downside because he only throws 88, but Arroyo doesn't throw much harder than that and he was able to succeed last season.

I just think with the addition of Gonzalez at SS and Encarnacion at 3B and Phillips at 2B, opposing teams are going to have a hard time pounding groundballs through the Reds infield. You add in the league change and the weaker lineups in the NL and I think that's a recipe for success. I'm not saying Saarloos is gonna win the Cy Young or anything but 170 innings of 4.25 ERA ball is not out of the question. I don't know about you but I would gladly take that out of my fifth starter.

PuffyPig
03-04-2007, 11:17 AM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.

THere are lots of very productive LH starters who's fastball tops out in this range.

Now, whether Livingston is one of them is another matter entirely.

jmac
03-04-2007, 11:43 AM
As for Hamilton, I keep him no matter what. If the Devil Rays won't agree to make him the PTBNL, I keep him around. To me he's a lefty Wily Mo Pena with defensive ability and baseball skills. I do what it takes to make him Reds property and keep him clean. Acquiring that type of talent is worth the investment of the 25th spot if that remains necessary.

Couldnt have said it beter myself. The kid has too much potential to lose.
Not based on what he has done in 3 games but rather what he was projected to be and "possibly" still can be. He is a Wily Mo in "situation" only. I rather think more as you said in "ability" and "skills" he has definitely a far far greater up-side.
He may go 0-12 in the next 3 games but the potential is truly too much to lose.

boognish
03-04-2007, 12:19 PM
To add to the Hamilton conversation, remember that last season the Reds went with 12 pitchers and 3 catchers for much of the season and kept the next-to-useless Quinton McCracken on the roster as the 25th man (until DFA'd). Even if completely lost and overwhelmed, Hamilton can easily replicate that level of play, and he has upside.

Best case scenario is that the Rays let the Reds keep him as the aforementioned PTBNL in the Harris deal...that way the Reds can get him the PAs he will need to get up to speed. It would probably be what is best for the kid, and the Rays aren't going to get anything for him anyway as the Reds would likely keep him at the big league level to retain him, so they should agree (may as well) to do what is best for the kid. They have NO obligation whatsoever to do so, but it is still what I would like to see.

Hamilton looked lost at the IS game on Wednesday on a couple of breaking pitches and a change, but was able to draw a walk in one AB and looked much better adjusted in the next day's game which I also attended. I'm not a scout, so take my observation with a sizeable grain of salt.

CWRed
03-04-2007, 01:02 PM
Well if Marty and Brantley (he's brutal..have you seen him?) say good things about somebody, then it must be true!! Ugh.:rolleyes:

dougdirt
03-04-2007, 01:14 PM
THere are lots of very productive LH starters who's fastball tops out in this range.

Now, whether Livingston is one of them is another matter entirely.

I am having trouble thinking of any of them not named Jaime Moyer. Not saying you are lying, but who are you referring to?

Topcat
03-04-2007, 01:40 PM
I disagree with mth on Saarloos. I don't know what it is, but I have a strong feeling that Kirk Saarloos is going to have a good 2007 season with the Reds. There is just something I like about the guy. His movement on his pitches is very good, which is always a good thing. You mentioned his movement as a downside because he only throws 88, but Arroyo doesn't throw much harder than that and he was able to succeed last season.

I just think with the addition of Gonzalez at SS and Encarnacion at 3B and Phillips at 2B, opposing teams are going to have a hard time pounding groundballs through the Reds infield. You add in the league change and the weaker lineups in the NL and I think that's a recipe for success. I'm not saying Saarloos is gonna win the Cy Young or anything but 170 innings of 4.25 ERA ball is not out of the question. I don't know about you but I would gladly take that out of my fifth starter.

I think sometimes people get caught up into speed numbers and forget some guys just know how to pitch. Saarlos is not being asked to be a star at all really. I also think he can be a serviceable starter.

Topcat
03-04-2007, 01:44 PM
[QUOTE=RFS62;1255003]Yep. He's a compelling story, right out of Hollywood if it goes best case scenario.

But we're a long way from that point. It sure is fun to watch.

Thank God they're playing games again.

:beerme:

Hamilton's hitting some actual advanced pitching. I truly believe he is going to make the roster as the 5th outfielder due to the fact he will not be exposed to be sent back to Tampa. best case scenario is he gets maybe 125 at bats and lots of instruction and late game action in blow outs. I personally am comfortable with that :) . It is a gamble sure but hey the Kid has a ton of talent and so far it is just an awesome feel good story.

mth123
03-04-2007, 02:41 PM
I disagree with mth on Saarloos. I don't know what it is, but I have a strong feeling that Kirk Saarloos is going to have a good 2007 season with the Reds. There is just something I like about the guy. His movement on his pitches is very good, which is always a good thing. You mentioned his movement as a downside because he only throws 88, but Arroyo doesn't throw much harder than that and he was able to succeed last season.

I just think with the addition of Gonzalez at SS and Encarnacion at 3B and Phillips at 2B, opposing teams are going to have a hard time pounding groundballs through the Reds infield. You add in the league change and the weaker lineups in the NL and I think that's a recipe for success. I'm not saying Saarloos is gonna win the Cy Young or anything but 170 innings of 4.25 ERA ball is not out of the question. I don't know about you but I would gladly take that out of my fifth starter.


Don't get me wrong. Movement is a good thing, but only if it is in the strike zone. Some guys can get away with things moving out of the zone, but those are usually real hard throwers who don't give hitters enough time to react.

If Saarloos can throw strikes and not fall behind in the count, he can be OK. You are right about the league change, that could provide a real bump for him in 2007.

Spitball
03-04-2007, 03:32 PM
I am having trouble thinking of any of them not named Jaime Moyer. Not saying you are lying, but who are you referring to?

Off the top of my head, there are several who don't throw particularly hard yet have been successful. These guys are not all lefties, though.

Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Woody Williams, Trevor Hoffman, Chris Capuano, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Doug Davis... and I'm sure there are more.

dougdirt
03-04-2007, 03:56 PM
Off the top of my head, there are several who don't throw particularly hard yet have been successful. These guys are not all lefties, though.

Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Woody Williams, Trevor Hoffman, Chris Capuano, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Doug Davis... and I'm sure there are more.

Greg Maddux could hit 95 in his prime.
Glavine at least throws in the high 80s.
Wakefield is a knuckleballer....
Hoffman also could hit 95 in his prime.
Williams throws in the low 90s.
Byrd is a good example of someone who throws in the mid 80s consistantly.
Capuano tops out at about 90.
Maroth is another good example.
Livan is also a good example.
Orlando hits 90 at times.
Doug Davis sits about 84-86 like Livingston does.

I guess what I am looking at is the number of guys who throw their fastballs in the mid 80s have very little chance to be successful. I am not going to hold my breath on Livingston.

Highlifeman21
03-04-2007, 04:07 PM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.

Very well put.

There's a reason we picked him up for essentially nothing. More dumpster diving by Krivsky.

Matt700wlw
03-04-2007, 04:15 PM
If Josh Hamilton pans out, and becomes a big time player (down the road)...could turn out to be the biggest steal in KrivDogg's career.

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 04:18 PM
Judging by what I have read on alot of sites.

Everyone is comparing Livingston to Moyer. There is also one thing that strikes me as very good about Livingston. His interviews before his call up last year he mentioned he knew was never going to be a flamethrower, so instead he focused time on the mound to ADJUST to the hitters he was facing. He started learning where to throw to get them out.

Too me that's an intanigable that is really going to help him in the national league. If Livian or Doug can have a succesfull career, and live in that number 3-5 slot in a rotation, than I am positive that Livingston can. Plus, Livingston is 23/24.


I dont see why everyone is complaining, he once again is a cheap innings eater, even if he is league average.

Patrick Bateman
03-04-2007, 04:27 PM
I dont see why everyone is complaining, he once again is a cheap innings eater, even if he is league average.


If he was league average everyone would love him. The problem is, Livingston does not project to be league average. If he did, he wouldn't have been available on waivers.

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 04:42 PM
Heres the article. (http://prospectinsider.wordpress.com/2006/04/25/scouting-report-bobby-livingston/)



That was enough to make me go "sounds good to me"

Highlifeman21
03-04-2007, 04:45 PM
Judging by what I have read on alot of sites.

Everyone is comparing Livingston to Moyer. There is also one thing that strikes me as very good about Livingston. His interviews before his call up last year he mentioned he knew was never going to be a flamethrower, so instead he focused time on the mound to ADJUST to the hitters he was facing. He started learning where to throw to get them out.

Too me that's an intanigable that is really going to help him in the national league. If Livian or Doug can have a succesfull career, and live in that number 3-5 slot in a rotation, than I am positive that Livingston can. Plus, Livingston is 23/24.


I dont see why everyone is complaining, he once again is a cheap innings eater, even if he is league average.

Livingston = Chris Michalak version 2007

Eric_Davis
03-04-2007, 05:07 PM
What has impressed me most on Hamilton is ...he is doing alot of this against lefties.
As far as Livingston...they were telling his minor league stats today and as they said, it's hard to figure a team letting him get away.

It was a given at the time that the Mariner's were nuts, but this is probably the last year for the M's G.M. after doing so many stupid things.

He's desperate right now. I'd try to make a deal with the M's and see what we could pluck from the organization.

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 05:11 PM
If he was league average everyone would love him. The problem is, Livingston does not project to be league average. If he did, he wouldn't have been available on waivers.

I think you are forgetting the Devil Rays got him then traded him to Philly.
Wayne say the error and claimed him for the Reds.

Thats how we got Bobby. So atleast one other team did want him, Philly. Who by the way, HAS Jamie Moyer. Think letting that rub off on a younger version was their idea?

No wait, can't be...because Bobby sucks already.

Eric_Davis
03-04-2007, 05:13 PM
If he was league average everyone would love him. The problem is, Livingston does not project to be league average. If he did, he wouldn't have been available on waivers.

Very poor reasoning and assumption on your part. Because he's available on waivers, that's why you think he's not projected to be leage average? How about using some first-hand knowledge of his talent? How about looking at some of the other boob-head mistakes the M's G.M. makes? How about looking at other guys who have been put on waivers who were average and above-average Major Leaguers (this happens every year)? How about looking at his age and what he's done at his other levels he's pitched? How about looking at his age and what another organization might be able to do with his talent? How about looking at him having an opportunity with a new organization?

He's on waivers, thus he must be below average is not valid reasoning.

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 05:13 PM
It was a given at the time that the Mariner's were nuts, but this is probably the last year for the M's G.M. after doing so many stupid things.

He's desparate right now. I'd try to make a deal with the M's and see what we could pluck from the organization.

This same team let..

Rafeal Soriano go for Horactio Ramirez (What the ??)

Chris Snelling and a young pitcher go for Jose Vidro (Okay, enough already)

Yorman Bazardo go for next to nothing to the Tigers. (again..didnt the M's NEED pitching??)

Only thing Bavasi (spelling) has done right was let Meche walk..

Eric_Davis
03-04-2007, 05:37 PM
Bobby Livingston's minor league numbers are the most amazing I've ever seen from someone who was put on waivers. We already went over this the day he was released, but Bavasi screwed up by picking up player(s), mainly two, that he either had to let go or put on the 40-man roster. As a result of not trying to make himself look stupid for not noticing that he'd have to release someone better than the player(s) he picked up, he tried to sneak Livingston through waivers. That didn't fly one bit, as I'm sure most G.M.'s were well aware of this guy. Look at these numbers, they're simply awesome. High innings pitched, low WHIP's, excellent K/BB ratio, low ERA's:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Bobby-Livingston.shtml

Forgot to mention, low-HR totals/ratios. He simply has better minor league numbers than any pitcher that's gone through the REDS organization in the last 15 years!!!!!!!

Eric_Davis
03-04-2007, 05:52 PM
I'm very interested in seeing what the REDS do with him this Spring and during this next season. Last Spring he pitched two shutout innings against the CUBS, but was limited to only two other innings where he gave up two runs. A stiff neck limited him last Spring to 4 IP. He was sent to AAA Tacoma, and never did well there. He'll be only 24 all year long, and there's no rush to have him reach the Majors. He's a starter that has the ability to pitch 200 Innings every year, who's never been hurt, other than that neck stinger last spring, and he doesn't throw in the manner that has a lot of injury risk.

Yes, he's like Jamie Moyer. He just goes out there every fifth day, gives up some solo homeruns, doesn't walk batters, and just wins.

He could be a 12-win pitcher every year for the REDS from 2008-2012. 12 wins isn't bad. Since joining the Mets five years ago, Tom Glavine has averaged a 12-12 season.

And like it's been said, he's cheap.

Patrick Bateman
03-04-2007, 05:52 PM
Very poor reasoning and assumption on your part. Because he's available on waivers, that's why you think he's not projected to be leage average? How about using some first-hand knowledge of his talent? How about looking at some of the other boob-head mistakes the M's G.M. makes? How about looking at other guys who have been put on waivers who were average and above-average Major Leaguers (this happens every year)? How about looking at his age and what he's done at his other levels he's pitched? How about looking at his age and what another organization might be able to do with his talent? How about looking at him having an opportunity with a new organization?

He's on waivers, thus he must be below average is not valid reasoning.


That's hardly what I said ED.

Based on everything available, there is no indication that Livingston projects to be a major league average starter. If there is some kind of indication, I would love to see it, since i sure haven't come accross anything yet. He's a soft tosser with very poor K numbers, decent control, and he isn't great at keeping the ball in the park. As of now, he's league average in AAA. What has everyone seen after 1 spring training game that makes you think that he has taken the leap of average minor leaguer to successful major leaguer?

The fact that he was put on waivers, and fell to the Reds indicates that a number of very bad teams (worse teams than the Reds) passsed on him. many of the bad teams have very bad pitchers, yet they felt no need to take a chance on Livingston. If anybody thought he projected to be a league average starter, at the major league minimum as of this year, teams would have been trading the farm for the guy. yet he slipped all the way to an average ball club. That's a pretty solid indication right there. Any kind of cheap pitching that may be anywhere close to half decent is a very valuable commodity, expecially in modern day baseball. the point is, few teams were willing to ive him any kind of chance.

Bill Bavasi has obviously made some incredible blunders during his tenure. However, if Livingston was really a huge mistake, how come pitching starved teams didn't even bother giving him a chance? You would think that those kinds of teams would be looking under every rock for any kind of pitching. Why wouldn't they take a chance on a league average starting pitcher making the minimum? Maybe it's because Livingston does not fit that profile.

Now Livinston has had some better success in the lower minors, so there is some hope that he can regain some his K numbers and improve the ability to keep the ball in the park. If he can do thsoe things, Livingston has a shot to make the majors and be soemwhat successful. If he is anything like he was last season, he's going to be a huge disaster.

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:02 PM
I think you are forgetting the Devil Rays got him then traded him to Philly.
Wayne say the error and claimed him for the Reds.

Thats how we got Bobby. So atleast one other team did want him, Philly. Who by the way, HAS Jamie Moyer. Think letting that rub off on a younger version was their idea?

No wait, can't be...because Bobby sucks already.


Gillick collects Mariner's slop just like Bowden collects Cincy slop.... By the way, Bobby does suck. Consider this....the M's knew they were going into the off season looking to fill THREE rotation spots and they still dumped Livingston.

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:11 PM
Very poor reasoning and assumption on your part. Because he's available on waivers, that's why you think he's not projected to be leage average? How about using some first-hand knowledge of his talent?

While projection systems aren't destiny, there isn't one that likes Livinston in '07. Then consider he's a soft-tosser with pedestrian stuff who struggled at AAA ball the last two seasons and there is reason to doubt he'll even be close to league average.


How about looking at some of the other boob-head mistakes the M's G.M. makes?

Which ones exactly would be telling concerning Livingston?


How about looking at other guys who have been put on waivers who were average and above-average Major Leaguers (this happens every year)? How about looking at his age and what he's done at his other levels he's pitched? How about looking at his age and what another organization might be able to do with his talent? How about looking at him having an opportunity with a new organization?

Maybe I should repeat this: He's a soft-tosser with pedestrian stuff who struggled at AAA ball the last two seasons....i'm trying to find the raw talent you're referring to....


He's on waivers, thus he must be below average is not valid reasoning.

I guess my point is that he had more of an argument than what you reduced his opinion to....

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:15 PM
Bobby Livingston's minor league numbers are the most amazing I've ever seen from someone who was put on waivers. We already went over this the day he was released, but Bavasi screwed up by picking up player(s), mainly two, that he either had to let go or put on the 40-man roster. As a result of not trying to make himself look stupid for not noticing that he'd have to release someone better than the player(s) he picked up, he tried to sneak Livingston through waivers. That didn't fly one bit, as I'm sure most G.M.'s were well aware of this guy. Look at these numbers, they're simply awesome. High innings pitched, low WHIP's, excellent K/BB ratio, low ERA's:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Bobby-Livingston.shtml

Forgot to mention, low-HR totals/ratios. He simply has better minor league numbers than any pitcher that's gone through the REDS organization in the last 15 years!!!!!!!


Alright now I like hyperbole but all things in moderation.

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:25 PM
I'm very interested in seeing what the REDS do with him this Spring and during this next season. Last Spring he pitched two shutout innings against the CUBS, but was limited to only two other innings where he gave up two runs. A stiff neck limited him last Spring to 4 IP. He was sent to AAA Tacoma, and never did well there. He'll be only 24 all year long, and there's no rush to have him reach the Majors. He's a starter that has the ability to pitch 200 Innings every year, who's never been hurt, other than that neck stinger last spring, and he doesn't throw in the manner that has a lot of injury risk.

Yes, he's like Jamie Moyer. He just goes out there every fifth day, gives up some solo homeruns, doesn't walk batters, and just wins.

He could be a 12-win pitcher every year for the REDS from 2008-2012. 12 wins isn't bad. Since joining the Mets five years ago, Tom Glavine has averaged a 12-12 season.

And like it's been said, he's cheap.

Now youre just making stuff up. He's never pitched 200 innings in his life. Its funny that everyone thinks all it takes to be Jaimie Moyer is to be lefty and throw under 90 mph. Livingston's peripherals have been declining. Scouts hate him and Seattle had a bird's eye view. Pencil him into your rotation if you want but I'm more of a realist.

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 06:39 PM
Livingston is a finesse southpaw prospect, but Iíll spare you the Jamie Moyer comparisons that seem to accompany every left-handed pitching prospect who canít throw a 92mph fastball. Livingston has above-average control but his walk rate crept upwards as he pitched around more advanced hitters in the upper minors. As long as he doesnít give up any more free passes than he did in 2005, he can keep the Mariners in the game without overpowering anyone as soon as this year. He has pitched more than 160 innings in each of the past three years, so he can be an innings-eater. In his prime, Livingston should be able to give up a three or four runs every five days in the back of Seattleís rotation

That would look really nice at the end of the Reds rotation..

Three or four runs..keeps us in games.

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:44 PM
This same team let..

Rafeal Soriano go for Horactio Ramirez (What the ??)

The Ms are convinced he has chronic arm problems and will never be a starter. They have a ton of young arms for the bullpen waiting in line and didn't like Soriano's lack of velocity in winter ball. So they traded a guy they consider to be a big injury risk who is filling a role they have a surplus for in order to fill a huge need. The criticism with this isn't that they traded Soriano, it's that they should've gotten more. I dunno. People aren't really trading good starters are they? If they were, Dunn wouldn't still be a Red.



Chris Snelling and a young pitcher go for Jose Vidro (Okay, enough already)

As an Ms fan, this broke my heart. That being said, Snelling is liable to blow out his knee for the billionth time just getting out of bed. This wasn't a smart move (mostly because of payroll issues) but it pales in comparison to things like Young's extension. In other words, other GMs have done much stupider things recently.


Yorman Bazardo go for next to nothing to the Tigers. (again..didnt the M's NEED pitching??)

Absolutely brilliant move. Bazardo is garbage. guys who project to be league average middle relievers are as rare as air.


Only thing Bavasi (spelling) has done right was let Meche walk..

I dunno.... Betancourt, Johjima, the extension for Ibanez, kicking Everett to the curb, trading Moyer when he did, the way Felix was handled, signing Beltre (yes, contrary to uninformed opinion, Beltre was a good signing), the Garcia trade, non-tendering Pineiro, trading Eddie.... It seems to me there have been alot of good moves made on his watch too.... By the way, the team has improved 15 games since his first year and this with the farm system being left in shambles by Gillick....

I'm a huge Ms fan and I'm not a Bavasi fan or apologist....but if you're going to dump on him, at least do it with context.

jojo
03-04-2007, 06:50 PM
That would look really nice at the end of the Reds rotation..

Three or four runs..keeps us in games.

Pamela Anderson and Jessica Simpson fighting over who will bring me a fresh beer on a beach in Bermuda sounds nice too....


Here's the point....a guy with Livinston's skill set has such a small margin or error.....you can talk about his great numbers in low ball but he flamed out in Tacoma-after a significant time there (we're not talking 4 at bats in spring training). At this point there is no reason to be as optimistic about him as a few in this thread are being.... A finesse pitcher with declining peripherals is a LONG shot....

Dracodave
03-04-2007, 07:17 PM
No I was talking about the fact that he was putting up those numbers in double a. The was called to triple A, where he should have seasoned for atleast a season or two. He got called up and before his call up he was owning Triple A to the tune of a 2.12 era. When the M's sent him back after his lackluster RELIEF (not starting) apperance. Thats when he sucked in triple a.

Did he get rushed? Who knows but...

Yes he hit a brick wall in triple a, is that something he can overcome? Who knows..and before we do. Everyone has already sold the kid out on being crapola.

What if he comes into a full game for us and does what Elizardo did? 92 very strong innings before he wacked out his shoulder.

We do know that livingston has movement on his pitches and that he has control. So he's two steps better than Elizardo..


My point is we could do a whole lot worse..

We could have signed Marquis, wouldnt that have been special?

harangatang
03-04-2007, 07:39 PM
I have to chime in on Livingston....the guy makes Joe Mays look like a fireballer. He tops out at about 86 MPH. I just cant see him being a very productive MLB pitcher when he cant even get to the high 80s with his fastball.Jamie Moyer pitched topped out about the speeds and it looked like he wasn't going to make it either, even with a decent amount of time in the major. The key for Moyer was to consistently change speeds and a circle changeup. Any "decent" left-handed pitcher will get a chance even if they can't throw as fast as Billy Wagner.

dougdirt
03-04-2007, 07:54 PM
Jamie Moyer piched about the speeds and looked like he wasn't going to make it either. Even with a decent amount of time in the majors, but the key was to consistently change speeds and a circle changeup. Any "decent" left-handed pitcher will get a chance even if they can't throw as fast as Billy Wagner.

And Jaime Moyer is one of a handful of guys to be able to do that. For every 1 Jaime Moyer type that succeeded there were 30 who failed.

jmcclain19
03-04-2007, 07:55 PM
The problem with comparing Livingston to Moyer, is that every single slop lefty who can't top 90 mph in the last decade seasons gets compared to Moyer (Or Tom Glavine for that matter).

Moyer is Livingston (and others) 90th percentile of what he could be.

Because of the speed he throws at, people tend to forget that Moyer has been a very good pitcher for a very long time.

Those guys are quite the rare commodity.

EDIT - I see doug stated my exact point in about half the words just before I did.

harangatang
03-04-2007, 08:01 PM
And Jaime Moyer is one of a handful of guys to be able to do that. For every 1 Jaime Moyer type that succeeded there were 30 who failed.Considering the Reds pitching woes any chance of success for a guy who is 25 is worth a shot. If the guy can learn how to change speeds effectively throw him in Louisville and call him up midyear. Sure as hell beats the crap out of the 35 year old fodder like Chris Michalak.

Spitball
03-04-2007, 08:03 PM
Greg Maddux could hit 95 in his prime.

Maddux was the best pitcher in the National League pitching in the mid to upper 80's. He was about movement and location.

Glavine at least throws in the high 80s.

Glavine now pitches between 82 and 86. He has always been about location.


Hoffman also could hit 95 in his prime.

Hoffman has successfully pitched in the mid-80's since the late 90's. He pitches off that 81 mph change-up like most pitch off their fastball.


Williams throws in the low 90s.

Williams' four seamer tops out around 87. His two seamer is a few notches slower.


Capuano tops out at about 90.

He certainly does not pitch at 90. His fastball is 86-88, and he depends on a lot of movement and location with his curve and change.



I guess what I am looking at is the number of guys who throw their fastballs in the mid 80s have very little chance to be successful. I am not going to hold my breath on Livingston.

He might not be successful, but lots of teams gave up on Moyer because he didn't throw hard. Soft tossers Tommy John and John Tudor were winning pitchers by changing speeds,hitting spots, and setting up hitters. They were also viewed as long shots.

harangatang
03-04-2007, 08:07 PM
Because of the speed he throws at, people tend to forget that Moyer has been a very good pitcher for a very long time.

Those guys are quite the rare commodity.

EDIT - I see doug stated my exact point in about half the words just before I did.Exactly Moyer has been a good pitcher because of his ability to change speeds. While pitchers who are consistent might be rare, use Moyer as model and if it works, that's awesome. The assumption was because he can't throw fast that he's not a good pitcher. It's not what you have, it's how you use what you have. If Livingston can learn to use what he has to his benefit as Jamie Moyer has, then that's great. If not he'll fall into the Chris Michalak category.

dougdirt
03-04-2007, 08:17 PM
Considering the Reds pitching woes any chance of success for a guy who is 25 is worth a shot. If the guy can learn how to change speeds effectively throw him in Louisville and call him up midyear. Sure as hell beats the crap out of the 35 year old fodder like Chris Michalak.

I am not so sure the Reds have pitching woes outside of Milton, and he isnt going anywhere. I would rather give that "shot" to someone with like Saarloos or Ramirez.

hebroncougar
03-04-2007, 08:18 PM
I think alot of people forget that when Hamilton came out of HS he was touted as being a better player at that time than both Griffey and Arod. Now, that being said, he's still got a looooooooong way to go. He needs to surround himself with good people along the way.

Patrick Bateman
03-04-2007, 10:20 PM
No I was talking about the fact that he was putting up those numbers in double a. The was called to triple A, where he should have seasoned for atleast a season or two. He got called up and before his call up he was owning Triple A to the tune of a 2.12 era. When the M's sent him back after his lackluster RELIEF (not starting) apperance. Thats when he sucked in triple a.

Did he get rushed? Who knows but...

Yes he hit a brick wall in triple a, is that something he can overcome? Who knows..and before we do. Everyone has already sold the kid out on being crapola.

What if he comes into a full game for us and does what Elizardo did? 92 very strong innings before he wacked out his shoulder.

We do know that livingston has movement on his pitches and that he has control. So he's two steps better than Elizardo..


My point is we could do a whole lot worse..

We could have signed Marquis, wouldnt that have been special?

Look, I'm not saying that he has no chance or anything, but I don't see any speical skills that he has that sets him apart from the usual soft tossing pitcher that gets shelled at the major league level. He has a chance, but he's going to have to improve significantly, and i don't see anything in him that shows that he should.

jojo
03-04-2007, 10:23 PM
Considering the Reds pitching woes any chance of success for a guy who is 25 is worth a shot. If the guy can learn how to change speeds effectively throw him in Louisville and call him up midyear. Sure as hell beats the crap out of the 35 year old fodder like Chris Michalak.

I don't think anyone is arguing about taking a flyer on Livingston.... I think the argument is with the notion that he's going to be consistently good for 12 wins a year or that he's the next 200 game winning soft-tossing lefty (i.e. Moyer)...

Spitball
03-05-2007, 12:27 AM
I don't think anyone is arguing about taking a flyer on Livingston.... I think the argument is with the notion that he's going to be consistently good for 12 wins a year or that he's the next 200 game winning soft-tossing lefty (i.e. Moyer)...

No...but several teams passed on Moyer before he was finally recognized as a viable starting pitcher. I love watching Moyer pitch. Like Arroyo, he adjusts to a batter and controls the at bat. He takes some off, then he adds some. He throws a backdoor slider and then gets the batter out on his front foot on a change. He makes his 84 mph fastball look like 94 because he sets the batter up. He is a thinking man's pitcher. So, why did Moyer bounce around so many years? The answer is velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but he has movement and location. He was overlooked and undervalued by too many that valued his radar gun readings more than his abilities. Off raw velocity, there are lots of pitchers who will get lots of interest but will never find the strike zone and will never figure out how to set up batters and control an at bat. However, many will jump on that bandwagon. I'm not saying Livingston is another Moyer, but I say let's not dismiss the potential based on a radar gun reading.

harangatang
03-05-2007, 12:42 AM
No...but several teams passed on Moyer before he was finally recognized as a viable starting pitcher. I love watching Moyer pitch. Like Arroyo, he adjusts to a batter and controls the at bat. He takes some off, then he adds some. He throws a backdoor slider and then gets the batter out on his front foot on a change. He makes his 84 mph fastball look like 94 because he sets the batter up. He is a thinking man's pitcher. So, why did Moyer bounce around so many years? The answer is velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but he has movement and location. He was overlooked and undervalued by too many that valued his radar gun readings more than his abilities. Off raw velocity, there are lots of pitchers who will get lots of interest but will never find the strike zone and will never figure out how to set up batters and control an at bat. However, many will jump on that bandwagon. I'm not saying Livingston is another Moyer, but I say let's not dismiss the potential based on a radar gun reading.That is 100% right on. Livingston may turn out to be nothing, but the lack of success should the determining factor, not the lack of velocity.

MaineRed
03-05-2007, 08:42 AM
He simply has better minor league numbers than any pitcher that's gone through the REDS organization in the last 15 years!!!!!!!


Last year in AAA he was 8-11 with a 4.59 ERA.

The year before his ERA was 4.70 in the time he was in AAA.

His numbers from AA and especially A ball make his overall numbers look better.

This guy hardly has shown 12 win potential. Say hello to the new Lance Davis.

jojo
03-05-2007, 08:45 AM
No...but several teams passed on Moyer before he was finally recognized as a viable starting pitcher. I love watching Moyer pitch. Like Arroyo, he adjusts to a batter and controls the at bat. He takes some off, then he adds some. He throws a backdoor slider and then gets the batter out on his front foot on a change. He makes his 84 mph fastball look like 94 because he sets the batter up. He is a thinking man's pitcher. So, why did Moyer bounce around so many years? The answer is velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but he has movement and location. He was overlooked and undervalued by too many that valued his radar gun readings more than his abilities. Off raw velocity, there are lots of pitchers who will get lots of interest but will never find the strike zone and will never figure out how to set up batters and control an at bat. However, many will jump on that bandwagon. I'm not saying Livingston is another Moyer, but I say let's not dismiss the potential based on a radar gun reading.



Thats a bit of revisionist history...... he bounced around for so long because he wasn't very good. For example, his K/BB rates weren't consistently at least 2 until his seventh season in the big leagues. For most of those early years his K/BB rate weren't even above 1.5. A finesse pitcher with suspect command tends to bounce around.

CINCYREDS#1
03-05-2007, 10:39 AM
saarloos was good with the A's and there is no reason he cant continue his success with the reds

jojo
03-05-2007, 11:15 AM
saarloos was good with the A's and there is no reason he cant continue his success with the reds

Actually, no he really wasn't very good with the As and there is plenty of reason to think he won't be very good with the Reds. This has been hashed out extensively here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54154&page=6&highlight=jojo+saarloos), here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54131&page=8&highlight=jojo+saarloos), and here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54206&highlight=jojo+saarloos) among numerous other places on redszone....

Caveman Techie
03-05-2007, 11:26 AM
Thats a bit of revisionist history...... he bounced around for so long because he wasn't very good. .

Talk about revisionist history. Here is Moyer's stats for his FIRST five seasons. Not stellar no, but certainly a passable starter.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1986 ChC 16 16 1 1 87.1 107 52 49 10 42 45 7 4 0 0 -- 5.05
1987 ChC 35 33 1 0 201.0 210 127 114 28 97 147 12 15 0 0 -- 5.10
1988 ChC 34 30 3 1 202.0 212 84 78 20 55 121 9 15 0 0 2 3.48
1989 Tex 15 15 1 0 76.0 84 51 41 10 33 44 4 9 0 0 -- 4.86
1990 Tex 33 10 1 0 102.1 115 59 53 6 39 58 2 6 0 1 -- 4.66

registerthis
03-05-2007, 11:40 AM
I don't know about you but I would gladly take that out of my fifth starter.

I'd say you *have* to take it when your 4th starter is going to be spotting an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.50.

BRM
03-05-2007, 11:51 AM
Talk about revisionist history. Here is Moyer's stats for his FIRST five seasons. Not stellar no, but certainly a passable starter.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1986 ChC 16 16 1 1 87.1 107 52 49 10 42 45 7 4 0 0 -- 5.05
1987 ChC 35 33 1 0 201.0 210 127 114 28 97 147 12 15 0 0 -- 5.10
1988 ChC 34 30 3 1 202.0 212 84 78 20 55 121 9 15 0 0 2 3.48
1989 Tex 15 15 1 0 76.0 84 51 41 10 33 44 4 9 0 0 -- 4.86
1990 Tex 33 10 1 0 102.1 115 59 53 6 39 58 2 6 0 1 -- 4.66

He was nearly a full run worse than league average in four of those years. He was shade better than average in 1988.

jojo
03-05-2007, 11:58 AM
Talk about revisionist history. Here is Moyer's stats for his FIRST five seasons. Not stellar no, but certainly a passable starter.

Actually, not stellar is an understatement. It's basically backend, #5 not stellar with the exception of a single season.



SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1986 ChC 16 16 1 1 87.1 107 52 49 10 42 45 7 4 0 0 -- 5.05
1987 ChC 35 33 1 0 201.0 210 127 114 28 97 147 12 15 0 0 -- 5.10
1988 ChC 34 30 3 1 202.0 212 84 78 20 55 121 9 15 0 0 2 3.48
1989 Tex 15 15 1 0 76.0 84 51 41 10 33 44 4 9 0 0 -- 4.86
1990 Tex 33 10 1 0 102.1 115 59 53 6 39 58 2 6 0 1 -- 4.66

He was above league average exactly one year in those 5 seasons..... The only season during that span where he had a FIP below 5 as a starter was one in which he had an uncharacterisitcally high LOB% (1988).

So no, my statements were not revisionist history.