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RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 07:36 PM
I have in prior years started threads on active Hall of Famers, using the Hall of Fame Monitor developed by Bill James. Please note that the Hall of Fame Monitor does not state who SHOULD be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Instead, it is based upon an analysis of historical Hall of Fame voting patterns to determine the chances that a particular player will make the Hall of Fame. For example, 3 points are awarded for each season a player has at least 100 RBI or 100 runs scored. Any score of at least 80 puts the player in a "gray" area where he at least has a HOF Monitor score as high as some Hall of Famers; a score of 100 is the average score of someone in the HOF; and a score of 130 or higher indicates that virtually every player with that score has or will make the HOF.
HOF Monitor scores can be found at Baseball-Reference.com.
A few comments before I begin to look at the scores: (1) I expect that the voting in the future will somewhat depart from the historical voting pattern because of the rise of sabermetrics. For almost all of the history of HOF voting the analysis of baseball statistics was very primitive. With the development of more sophisicated methods of examining a player's performance, I expect HOF voting to eventually reflect the influence of sabermetrics. OBP and OPS will gain in importance while raw batting average will decline in its effects upon voting. (2) To the extent historical voting reflects the various compositions of the Veterans Committee, the voting record probably overstates a player's chances of making the HOF so long as the present Veterans Committee is in effect, with its firm policy of electing no one. (3) We still do not know the effects that the use of steroids in baseball will have upon voting. But for the steroid issue, Mark McGwire would have been elected on the first ballot.

RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 07:51 PM
First the pitchers, beginning withe Fab Four: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson. Little discussion is really needed regarded this quartet, who, just like the Beatles, will all be inducted into their occupation's Hall of Fame, although not as a group.
Clemens, while looking nothing like Paul McCartney, is the "Paul" of this group. Sometimes inconsistent, with several slumps in his career, Clemens, like Sir Paul, has nevertheless put up a staggering career total of accomplishments: A 348-178 career mark, with 7 Cy Young awards, one MVP, 11 All Star selections, six 20 win seasons, and 7 ERA titles. He is even 14-9 in the post-season after some early career disappointments.
Martinez is John Lennon. Arguably the best of the four at his peak, Martinez's career, like Lennon's, will not match the length of Clemens/McCartney, but what a peak: A 206-92 mark, with 3 Cy Young awards, 2 20 wins seasons, 8 All Star selections, and a 6-2 post-season record.
Maddux is George Harrison, the quiet member of the group: A 333-203 record, with 4 Cy Young awards, 2 20 win seasons, 8 All Star selections-his post-season mark is only 10-11.
While they look nothing alike, Randy Johnson and Ringo Starr each take "honors" as the least photogenic of their respective quartets, but Johnson has far surpassed Ringo, who did at least get former Bond girl Barabra Bach as a consolation prize. The Big Unit has a career record of 280-147, with five Cy Young awards, 3 20 win seasons, 4 ERA titles, 10 All Star selections; his post-season record is a mere 4-6, but his legend was made with his performance in 2001 that brought Arizona a World Championship.
As for their HOF Monitor scores, Clemens leads the way with 326, thiord highest of all time, behind only Walter Johnson at 365 and Cy Young himself at 332. Randy Johnson isn't far behind at 320, 4th all time. Maddux has a 241 score, 13th all time. Martinez has a score of 193, ranking 23rd all time. All these guys are way, way above the 130 threshold making election certain.

RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 07:55 PM
During the Beatles heyday, many articles were written about a "Fifth Beatle." I don't recall John, Paul, George or Ringo ever annoucing that they needed a fifth, but it made for some news articles. The "Fifth Beatle" among active pitchers is Tom Glavine. While rather clearly not as great as the afore-mentioned Fab Four, Glavine is a certain future Hall of Famer. He has a career record of 290-191, with 5 20 win seasons, 10 All Star selections, and a pair of Cy Young trophies. His post-season mark is only 14-16, but his HOF Monitor score is 166.

RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 08:11 PM
Then there are Curt Schilling and John Smoltz. I usually think of them as a duo when evaluating their HOF chances. Maybe it is because their names come close together in the record books, or maybe because their birthdates are close together, with Curt being born on 11/14/66 and John six months later on 5/15/67. For a long time, Smoltz had the better credentials, but in more recent seasons Schilling appeared to pull ahead.
Schilling has a career mark of 207-138 with 3015 Ks, 6 All Satr selections, three 20 win seasons, and an 8-2 post-season record. He twice has lead his league in wins and twice in strikeouts. His HOF Monitor score is 167, one point higher than that of Tom Glavine.
Smoltz has a HOF Monitor score of 142. Along with a 193-137 carrer record, he has 2778 Ks, 7 All Star selections, one Cy Young award and one 20 win season. He too has twice lead his league in wins and twice in Ks. While Schilling has the edge in wins, Smoltz also boasts a Rolaids relief pitcher of the year award and 154 saves (Schilling has 22). I believe that Smoltz is the only pitcher in baseball history to ever win a Cy Young award as a starter and a relief pitcher of the year award.
I think both guys will make the HOF. Schilling's post-season mark of 8-2 is impressive enough, but it includes a sparkling 2.06 ERA and the legend of the bloody sock in the Red Sox's World Championship season of 2004. Meanwhile, Smoltz has a post-season record of 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA; Smoltz has more post-season victories than any pitcher, ever. He was the one constant in the Braves string of 14 divisional titles. While he was often regarded as the number three starter on a staff that included Maddux and Glavine, he was also justly regarded as the Braves clutch starting pitcher, the guy the Braves most wanted on the mound in a decisive game.

RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 08:25 PM
Next on the HOF Monitor list come three current or former Yankees: Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells. None of these guys would make the HOF IMO if their careers ended now. Mussina has a score of 109, Pettitte has a score of 98 and Wells has a score of 88.
Mussina has never had a 20 win season and has made 5 All Star teams. However, he is still active at age 38 and already has 239 wins to go with 134 losses. It is not out of question that Mussina may gain another 61 wins to give him 300 for his career, especially given the support he should receive from the Yankees. The failure of the HOF to thus far admit Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven and Tommy John, all of whom topped 280 career wins, means that Mussina almost certainly will need to win 300 games to make the Hall, but he at least has a decent shot at doing exactly that.
Andy Pettitte has a career mark of 186-104 with an excellent .641%. Although he has only two All Star selections to his credit, he does have a pair of 20 win seasons and a 14-9 post-season record. He will be 35 in June. To have a realistic chance at the HOF, he probably needs to remain in Yankee pinstripes for the rest of his career and he will probably need to get at least 225-250 wins. He probably will fall short, but he has a chance.
David Wells has a record of 230-148 which is better than several pithcers in the HOF, but he has virtually no chance at induction into the HOF. He has one 20 win season, a perfect game, and three All Star selections to boast of. Born on 5/20/63, he is highly unlikely to significantly push his career win total much further.

RedsBaron
03-05-2007, 08:27 PM
No other active starting pitcher has yet reached the 80 threshold on the HOF Monitor list. Kenny Rogers is next with 66, but he will surely "know when to fold 'em" before he comes close to a score that would get him consideration. The guy to watch is obviously Johan Santana, who already has a score of 56.
I believe that Clemens, Martinez, Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, Schilling and Smoltz will all gain admission to the Hall of Fame-that's 7 active HOF pitchers. if you assume that there are at least another 2 or 3 active starting pitchers who do not yet have HOF worthy resumes but eventually will, be they someone such as Santana who is off to a great start building that HOF resume or simply someone such as Homer Bailey who at this point is virtually a blank slate, this would mean there probably are around 10 active starting pitchers who wil make the Hall of Fame. Is that too many? Well, in 1969 the following then active starting pitchers made the HOF: Seaver, Gibson, Carlton, Drysdale, Ryan, Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Marichal, Phil Niekro, Sutton, Hunter, Jenkins, Bunning--that's 13 just by memory, and that list doesn't include pitchers such as Tiant, Kaat and John, all of whom arguably had HOF worthy careers although they have not been inducted into the Hall.
Next I'll look at relief pitchers.

mth123
03-06-2007, 01:48 AM
Have to love a thread that combines the Beatles and Baseball (see avatar).

I have to think that Smoltz would be up with the Fab Four if he hadn't spent 4 years in the pen. I think a dominant closer is great and all but only four years adds nothing to his HOF case no matter how good he was and it takes away from his record as a starter.

Another 60 to 70 or so wins from starting those years would enhance his chances with the voters (who look at wins) IMO. I don't think the voters will be sophisticated enough to accumulate the value of his closing years on top of his starting years. I think that many will view each separately and be left with two careers that come up short within the same guy.

Dwight Gooden might be the Pete Best of this group. He just didn't stay on as a member long enough to among the elite but was certainly a contemporary of the other 4.

In addition to Santana (Johan not Carlos although it does play into the Music theme a bit) Roy Oswalt has to be a guy to watch that is off to a very good start on his way to the Hall IMO. By the time he's done, he may end up as the George Strait (see the Texas tie in) of this list.

RedsBaron
03-06-2007, 07:17 AM
Have to love a thread that combines the Beatles and Baseball (see avatar).

I have to think that Smoltz would be up with the Fab Four if he hadn't spent 4 years in the pen. I think a dominant closer is great and all but only four years adds nothing to his HOF case no matter how good he was and it takes away from his record as a starter.

Another 60 to 70 or so wins from starting those years would enhance his chances with the voters (who look at wins) IMO. I don't think the voters will be sophisticated enough to accumulate the value of his closing years on top of his starting years. I think that many will view each separately and be left with two careers that come up short within the same guy.

Dwight Gooden might be the Pete Best of this group. He just didn't stay on as a member long enough to among the elite but was certainly a contemporary of the other 4.

In addition to Santana (Johan not Carlos although it does play into the Music theme a bit) Roy Oswalt has to be a guy to watch that is off to a very good start on his way to the Hall IMO. By the time he's done, he may end up as the George Strait (see the Texas tie in) of this list.

If HOF voting was based solely upon how a pitcher did against the Reds Oswalt would make it on the first ballot. His HOF Monitor score is 42, which means he is roughly halfway to building a resume warranting serious consideration. He has a career mark of 98-47; if he gets to, say, 196-94 he will at least enter the conversation. He has two 20 win seasons, two All Star selections, has lead the league once in both wins and ERA, and has a 4-0 post-season record. Oswalt will turn age 30 in August. Write This Down and don't Give It Away-if he can keep his pace up Oswalt may one day be singing Cooperstown By Morning.
Dwight Gooden is a great illustration of the danger of projecting whether or a player will make the HOF based upon only a few years of performance. After his first two seasons, Gooden looked like a certainty to make the Hall. His HOF Monitor score of 88 fairly reflects his career--very good, but short of HOF worthy.
I think (hope?) that Dennis Eckersley's HOF induction will help Smoltz's chances. Both pitchers had hybrid careers. While Smoltz was not a dominant closer for as long as Eck, Eck was never the dominant starter Smoltz is. Perhaps more than any other starting pitcher, Smoltz really enhanced his HOF chances in 2006, when he lead the NL in wins for a second time, tying Aaron Harang with 16 wins.

RedsBaron
03-06-2007, 08:22 AM
If we continue with the singers/pitchers analogy, Mariano Rivera is the Elvis, the "King" of relief pitchers, or better still, the Sinatra, the "Chairman of the Board" singing "New York, New York." It is hard to make a much better argument for induction into the Hall of Fame than to say a player is the best ever at his position, and that argument may be made for Rivera. His HOF Monitor score is 173, well above the 130 where induction becomes almost certain. He has a 59-40 career mark with 413 saves. He is an 8 time All Star. He is a four time winner of the Rolaids relief man award. He has lead the AL in saves three times. Most impressive is his post-season record of 8-1 with 34 saves and an 0.80 ERA. "If you can make it there, you'll make it anywhere.....".
What about other relievers? First the HOF Monitor scores for all active relievers above 80: Trevor Hoffman-132, John Franco-124, Jose Mesa-103, Billy Wagner-86, Troy Percival-85 and Roberto Hernandez-83.
Hoffman hasn't had the post-season opportunities that Rivera has, but his career record includes 482 saves, the most ever, along with 5 All Star selections, two Rolaids awards and two seaons leading the NL in saves. How impressed HOF voters will be with his career saves total, or how long Hoffman will be the career leader, remains to be seen--Lee Smith was the prior all time leader with 478 and he is still on the outside looking in. I'd guess Hoffman will probably make it. Even with a 132 HOF Monitor score I do not regard him as a certain inductee.
Franco has 424 saves, is a 4 time All Star, lead the NL in saves three times and has two Rolaids awards, but even with a 124 HOF Monitor score I expect him to fall short in HOF voting. I do not believe he was as dominant a closer as, say, Goose Gossage, who has yet to be inducted, nor does he have as many saves or as high a HOF Monitor score as the afore-mentioned Lee Smith (135). I wouldn't vote for him.
Jose Mesa has 320 saves, 2 All Star selections, one Rolaids award, one year leading his league in saves, and the enduring memory of being the guy who blew game seven of the 1997 World Series-buy a ticket if you want to see the HOF, Jose.
Hernandez has 326 saves and two All Star selections; Wagner has 324 saves and 4 All Star selections; Percival has 324 saves and 4 All Star selections. None of that trio will make the HOF absent further polishing of their resumes.

Will M
03-06-2007, 04:24 PM
Smoltz is a first ballot HOFer in my book.
He is/was a better pitcher than Glavine AND was da Man in the post season.
The reason the Braves only won one World Series was due to their weak pens and Glavine/Maddux's generic post season pitching.
Smoltz was great in the post season.

Cyclone792
03-06-2007, 07:44 PM
I see Schilling and Smoltz both getting into the Hall, and it'll be due to their postseason success in my eyes. Their regular season career numbers will paint them as a borderline candidate, but I believe most of the voters will then consider each pitcher's postseason success and glory as the deal breaker to go ahead and vote for them.

Part of me thinks Smoltz's time as a closer may help him in some voters' eyes, specifically because Smoltz went from being a great starting pitcher to a great closer, then back to being a very good starting pitcher once again. It'll be interesting, but I have a feeling that some voters may think even more highly of Smoltz because of that.

Myself, I'd probably support both pitchers for the Hall too right now, and I'd also support Mussina, who I believe will have a difficult time gaining election unless he does something near the end of his career to wow voters.

As for relievers, Rivera is a cinch, and I think Hoffman's in too, but I'm not sure if any of the rest will make it as of yet.

To summarize:

In: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, and Trevor Hoffman
Toss-up, but I'd put them in: Mike Mussina
Some chance, but not lookin' real good: Andy Pettitte
Zero chance: David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Jose Mesa, Roberto Hernandez, and Troy Percival
No idea at the moment: John Franco
Possibly, but I'd guess no right now: Billy Wagner

Great thread, RB, keep'em coming!

RedsBaron
03-06-2007, 08:07 PM
I'll do catchers next. No surprises-it is a short list, with Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza the only catchers with a HOF Monitor score above 80. Jorge Posada is the third ranking catcher with a score of 70, which is the 249th highest all time score among "everyday" players. Posada will turn age 36 in August, so he is highly unlikely to ever push his score into the range of Hall of Fame discussion.
Piazza has a HOF Monitor score of 205, 37th all time and 4th all time among catchers. He obviously will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He has a .309 career average, with career marks of .379 OBP, .551 SPT, 419 HRs, 1291 RBI, 2042 hits, 327 doubles, 1015 runs scored, 10 Silver Slugger awards and 12 All Star selections. The only thing that keeps Piazza from being a serious contender for the title of greatest catcher of all time is the fact he can't play the position and has been a firstbaseman/leftfielder/DH playing out of position his entire career. He can hit with virtually anyone but he can't catch. He has zero Gold Gloves in his resume.
Then there is Rodriguez. Pudge has an even higher HOF Monitor score, 212.5, 34th all time. There is a decent chance that before Pudge retires he will have the highest HOF Monitor score of any catcher in history. Yogi Berra had a score of 220, 29th among all players, and Johnny Bench had a score of 214, 33rd among all players.
Pudge has career marks of a .304 average, .342 OBP, .483 SPT, 277 HRs, 1119 RBI, 2354 hits, 473 doubles, and 1159 runs. He is a 13 time All Star selection, has won an MVP, has 7 Silver Sluggers AND he has 12 Gold Gloves-Johnny Bench won 10 Gold Gloves. I still rank Bench as the greatest catcher in major league history, just ahead of Berra, but Ivan Rodiguez has as good a claim to that title as anyone. He will be inducted on the first ballot.

Will M
03-06-2007, 08:41 PM
I see Schilling and Smoltz both getting into the Hall, and it'll be due to their postseason success in my eyes. Their regular season career numbers will paint them as a borderline candidate, but I believe most of the voters will then consider each pitcher's postseason success and glory as the deal breaker to go ahead and vote for them.

Part of me thinks Smoltz's time as a closer may help him in some voters' eyes, specifically because Smoltz went from being a great starting pitcher to a great closer, then back to being a very good starting pitcher once again. It'll be interesting, but I have a feeling that some voters may think even more highly of Smoltz because of that.

Myself, I'd probably support both pitchers for the Hall too right now, and I'd also support Mussina, who I believe will have a difficult time gaining election unless he does something near the end of his career to wow voters.

As for relievers, Rivera is a cinch, and I think Hoffman's in too, but I'm not sure if any of the rest will make it as of yet.

Great thread, RB, keep'em coming!


I do think more highly of Smoltz based on the fact that when asked to be the Braves closer for 4 years not only did he do it but he was a GREAT closer.

Cyclone792
03-07-2007, 12:58 AM
Piazza and Rodriguez are absolute locks, and there's no doubt they'll get in.

Jorge Posada is an interesting case. He's been an outstanding rate catcher, as evidenced by his 122 OPS+, which is higher than Rodriguez's 113 OPS+. Posada also has 24.96 win shares per 162 games, and that's higher than both Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter who have 23.86 and 23.78 win shares per 162 games, respectively.

However, Posada's problem is he didn't become a regular catcher until age 26, and he's really lacking the total career value. He only has 196 career win shares, and he's not likely to get much more than maybe 250 win shares for his career. Unless you're Roy Campanella or Mickey Cochrane and put up an absurd peak, which Posada didn't do, that's not likely to get you noticed by Hall voters.

If Posada can catch another 500 games without a significant dropoff in performance, I think he's got a shot at Cooperstown. Unfortunately, that's another four seasons of around 125+ games caught each season, and at Posada's age I don't think that's likely to happen.

To summarize ...

In: Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez
Some chance, but not lookin' real good: Jorge Posada

RedFanAlways1966
03-07-2007, 08:58 AM
Great read. Very interesting. Thanks!

Cyclone's post above this one makes me ask.. do most of the voters actually look at the numbers like Cyclone does? The same for RedsBaron's information relative to Bill James' numerical stat for entry. I think this line of thinking is great for entry... but, as we have read elsewhere here, there are many who think that kind of thinking is ruining things. Some of those who think it ruins things are the ones who vote for inclusion in Cooperstown.

RFS62
03-07-2007, 09:16 AM
Great thread, RedsBaron.

I love Pudge's game, and always have. He lost so much weight when testing came in, I must admit that I wonder if he juiced.

Right now to me, he's second only to Bench in technical perfection behind the dish. Better footwork, but Bench's arm was superior.

dfs
03-07-2007, 11:18 AM
Cyclone's post above this one makes me ask.. do most of the voters actually look at the numbers like Cyclone does? The same for RedsBaron's information relative to Bill James' numerical stat for entry.

It depends.

Some of the voters carefully consider all the numbers. Some voters just "know" he wasn't a hall of famer and any evidence presented as such is disregarded.

James' tool was meant as a predictor of who would get in the hall. Not as evidence that they deserved to get in. Like any tool over time it will degrade. As the voters and their standards change, the tool will start to need updates.

Oh, yeah. Great thread.

RedsBaron
03-07-2007, 09:43 PM
On to firstbasemen. The following firstsackers have HOF Monitor scores of at least 80: Frank Thomas-184, Todd Helton-161, Albert Pujols-154, Jim Thome-127, Carlos Delgado-100, and Jason Giambi-95. Firstbase is an interesting position, as its residents tend to be big, bulked up sluggers who may raise suspicions of steroid use, but in truth there should be just as many questions raised about bulked up starting pitchers, but these fellows present their set of issues.
First, we have Frank Thomas (yeah, he's been more of a DH than anything else, but I'm listing him as a firstbaseman). Probably sometime in May or June of this year The Big Hurt will hit his 500th career home run, and someone in the media will write a column stating that Thomas has thereby guaranteed himself a place in the HOF. Well, as his 184 score indicates, Thomas has far surpassed any necessary standard for HOF induction. He has 487 career HRs to go with 1579 RBI, a .305 average, a .424 OBP and a .566 SPT. Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr, were better all-around players in the 1990s, but nobody was as good a hitter in that decade as Thomas.He has two MVP awards, a batting title, 4 Silver Sluggers, 4 OBP crowns, 4 OPS titles, and a slugging championship. Surprisingly, he has only made 5 All Star teams. His departure from the White Sox wasn't pretty, but his HOF plaque will look good.
Todd Helton is a more interesting case. His HOF Monitor score of 161 would indicate he is a certain first ballot inductee. However, use of the Stat Neutralizer at Baseball-Reference.com is revealing. Helton's raw stats are great: a .333 career average, with .430 OBP and .593 SPT, 286 HRs and 996 RBI. In 2000 he hit .372 with 42 HRs, 147 RBI, a .463 OBP and .698 SPT. The next season he had numbers of .336 49 146 .432 .685. Did playing in Colorado help? Well, the Stat Neutralizer reduces Helton's numbers, in a 750 runs per team context, to a career .300 .394 .535 line, with 244 HRs and 748 RBI. His great seasons in 2000 and 2001 are also considerably reduced to .315 32 99 .401 .589 and .300 42 112 .391 .616. Helton is still a good player, but those "neutralized" numbers are not nearly as overwhelming. I have no idea what HOF voters will do with Helton, as voters have not yet had occasion to try to make sense of hitters' numbers in the thin air of Colorado.
Albert Pujols has a score of 154. He is very familiar to RedsZoners, but his performance is still amazing. In six seasons, he has finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st and 2nd in NL MVP voting, which has to be one of the most impressive first six seasons ever. A five time All Star, Pujols has a career average of .332 with 250 HRs, 758 RBI, a .419 OBP and a .629 SPT. Unlike Helton, the Stat Neutralizer has little effect on Pujols's numbers, slightly reducing them across the borad to .330 248 748 .417 .625. Absent some sort of scandal, Pujols is a first ballot, 98% of the vote, future Hall of Famer.
Carlos Delgado will turn 35 this season. He has only made two All Star teams and usually doesn't immediately come to mind as a superstar. His score of 100 is exactly the score of the "average" member of the HOF. He has lead the league in RBI once, in OPS once, in total bases once, in doubles once. He has three Silver Sluggers. His lifetime totals of .282 average 407 HRs 1287 RBI .390 OBP and .558 SPT are all somewhat reduced by the Stat Neutralizer, going to .272 392 1207 .379 .538. He is a "maybe" at this point IMO.
Giambi has a score of 95 and a steroid stained image. HOF? Unlikely.

Cyclone792
03-08-2007, 01:37 AM
Frank Thomas is a lock, or at least should be. Every now and then I hear sportscasters comment that they're not sure if Thomas will make the Hall, and every time I go "Whaaa?" The guy was a beast during the 90s, and as RB said, one of the best hitters of the decade, if not the best hitter of the decade.

Barring a catastrophe, Pujols is also a lock. I'd rank his peak level of play second highest among first sackers all-time, behind only Lou Gehrig. Pujols is an unreal hitter.

Jim Thome will most likely get in, though I'll admit I had lost track of just how great of a hitter he's been. He's hit 40 or more home runs five of the last six seasons, and I hadn't realized it but could crack 500 homers this season if he's healthy since he only needs 28.

On a sidenote, here's an interesting Thome tidbit: his most similar batter at age 23 is none other than Edwin Encarnacion.

Delgado I'm 50/50 on whether I think he'll make it, and I think the final word on his election will ultimately be decided by his production in a Mets uniform. He was in the shadows in Toronto, then went to the Marlins for a year and had a fine season in 2005. He arrived in New York last season, and while he didn't put up his usual outstanding year at the plate, he was still solid. If he puts up a few more great or solid years in New York, I'd say his chances are pretty good. If he flames out quickly in New York, I'd say his chances are slim.

I have no idea how voters will treat Helton, but if he wants to make it difficult on them, he's going to have to show a resurgence in power. Helton's only hit 35 homers combined over the last two seasons, which usually isn't that bad, but it sticks out a bit considering he's still playing in Coors Field.

Here's Helton's career home/road splits.

Home: .371/.465/.676/1.141
Road: .294/.393/.507/.900

Jason Giambi's been an outstanding hitter, and under normal circumstances he'd be pushing his way into Hall of Fame discussion with 350 career homers and a lifetime OPS+ of 150. But unless the environment changes in the next few years in regards to the steroid cloud above certain players, I think Giambi will ultimately be left on the outside looking in for Cooperstown.

RedsBaron
03-08-2007, 07:06 AM
In my haste to get in my comments about the firstbasemen, I forgot to even discuss Jim Thome. He'll turn age 37 on August 27. As Cyclone noted, he is only 28 HRs away from 500. His career stats include a .282 average with 472 HRs, 1302 RBI, a .409 OBP and .565 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer reduces those numbers to .272 463 1241 .397 .545. He is a five time All Star. He only has one Silver Slugger. He has lead the league in HRs and OPS once each, and has three times lead in walks. Of course, he has lead the league in strikeouts three times, with seasons of 182 and 185:eek: , so obviously Marty wouldn't want him. His home run line the last ten seasons, save for 2005 when he was injured, is: 38, 40, 30, 33, 37, 49, 52, 47, 42 and 42. He also has 17 post-season HRs. When Thome hits number 500, his HOF election should be guaranteed.
Before Ken Griffey Junior hit his 500th career HR, I read articles speculating that his HOF chances were uncertain, this after Junior has already been voted player of the 1990s, had made the All Century Team, had had back to back 56 HR seasons, had won a MVP, and was already well over 400 HRs. Some sportwriters haven't got a clue.
I agree with Cyclone. At his current pace, Pujols will eventually be regarded as the second best firstbaseman, ever, just behind Gehrig. Pujols and Frank Thomas are locks for the HOF.

RedsBaron
03-08-2007, 08:16 AM
There are two secondbasemen who have HOF Monitor scores above the 80 threshold where a player really begins to be a contender for the Hall of Fame: Craig Biggio-145, and Jeff Kent-103.
I've previously commented about how silly I believe sportwriters are if and when they write that guys such as Ken Griffey Junior and Frank Thomas need 500 career HRs to make the Hall of Fame. Biggio needs 70 hits for 3000 in his career, and he probably does need 3000 hits to make the HOF, at least on an early ballot. Outside of Houston, Biggio isn't that well known, and probably fails the so-called "fame" test of a Hall of Famer. He and his former runningmate, Jeff Bagwell, were never able to bring a World Championship to Houston.
All that said, Biggio has been a wonderful player who should be inducted on the first ballot. Along with those 2930 hits he has 281 HRs, 1125 RBI, 1776 runs scored (a tremendous total), and a .283 average .367 OBP .436 SPT. His playing conditions have not enhanced those stats, as the Stats Neutralizer actually slightly improves all those numbers to 3013 hits, 282 HRs, 1177 RBI, 1827 runs, and a line of .284 .368 .436. He is a seven time All Star, has 4 Gold Gloves and 5 Silver Sluggers. He has lead the NL in runs twice, with a high of 146, and in doubles 3 times, with a high of 56. Just an amazing secondbaseman, especially when one recalls he came up as a catcher.
Jeff Kent is a closer case, as his 103 score, just above the "average" Hall of Famer score of 100, indicates. His career stats include 345 HRs, 1380 RBI, 501 doubles, a .289 average, .356 OBP and .504 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer has little effect, with the HRs going up to 352, RBI to 1406, and a line of .288 .356 .502. He is a 5 time All Star, has 4 Silver Sluggers, and one MVP trophy.
Kent turned age 39 yesterday, so he may not push his numbers too much higher. I really do not know what HOF voters will do with him, but with 8 100 RBI seasons and 3 30+ HR seasons, Kent has an argument to be the second best power hitting secondbaseman ever, behind only Rogers Hornsby. He probably ranks in the top 12 or so secondbasemen of all time. I would lean in the direction of voting for him, but I really have not made up my mind.
Because I expect Biggio to get those 3000 hits, Biggio is a "yes" as far as his chances are of being voted into the HOF, while Kent is at best a "maybe."

RedsBaron
03-08-2007, 09:24 AM
Did you ever notice how certain positions seem to run in cycles, with great players at the position on numerous teams, only to then enter an era with few great players at that position? I can recall the 1970s, when it seemed as if every team had a top flight catcher. That decade saw Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter, all future Hall of Famers, in their prime, and there were numerous other quality catchers, including Munson, Fosse, Tenace, Simmons, Sanguillen, Parrish, et al. While Pudge and Piazza rank high, the modern game doesn't have as many top flight catchers IMO.
That brings us to thirdbase. For years everytime an "all time" team was selected, Pie Traynor was the thirdbaseman. This was in part due to the fact he was a good player, part due to the fact that at that time sportwriters considered his .320 average without putting it into the context of the era in which he played and without considering more sophisicated ways of measuring offense, but also in large part to the fact that there were fewer great thirdbasemen than at any other position.
Then came the 1960s and 1970s, the golden age of thirdbasemen. Eddie Mathews, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and George Brett were all future Hall of Famers who were in their primes in those decades, and those decades also featured Ron Santo (who should be in the HOF), Ken Boyer (ditto and a MVP), Bill Madlock (4 time batting champ), Craig Nettles, Bill Melton (HR champ), Buddy Bell, Ron Cey, Clete Boyer, and even a bunch of other guys who played there for a few seasons even if it wasn't their best position, including Tony Perez, Pete Rose, Richie Allen and Harmon Killebrew....just a great run.
Now? Here is the list of thirdbasemen with at least a score of 80 on the HOF Monitor: Larry "Chipper" Jones-128.
That's it.
Chipper's score is helped by all his post-season apperances. He is a former MVP, a five time All Star, and has 2 Silver Slugger awards. His career line is .304 average .402 OBP .542 SPT, with 1188 runs, 383 doubles, 357 HRs and 1197 RBI. The Stats Neutralizer slightly reduces all those numbers, to .296 .392 .526 1126 372 345 1136.
Jones turns age 35 next month, so he still has time to pad his numbers, He should at least reach 400 career HRs and 1500 RBI are possible, although his career average will probably drop below .300 before he is done.
Probably the best argument for Chipper Jones making the HOF is that he has been the best at his position during his era. At this point I'd guess he will make it, maybe on the 10th ballot or so.
Vinny Castilla is next closest, with a 69 score, but he is about done. Scott Rolen has a score of 64, and possibly could move up, but I question whether or not he will last long enough.
What about the Yankees' current thirdbaseman? We will consider him when we look at shortstops.

RedsBaron
03-08-2007, 10:41 PM
No surprises, save one, at shortstop. There are five players with HOF Monitor scores of at least 80, four of whom are: Alex Rodriguez-266; Derek Jeter-192; Nomar Garciaparra-120; and Miguel Tejada-99.
Not much need to say much about A-Rod: 2 time MVP who arguably should have won the award several more times; 4 time HR champ with a high of 57; 464 career HRs; 10 All Star selections; a batting title.....he has no shortage of critics, and has failed spectacularly in the post-season with the Yankees, but he will make the HOF with ease. If, as rumored, he leaves NY after this season, he may very well return to shortstop. He is only 31 years old at present, turning 32 at the end of July.
A-Rod's former buddy, Derek Jeter, is another future first ballot Hall of Famer. The 7 time All Star has a career average of .317 and 2150 hits. He will be 33 in late June. He has a good shot at 3000 hits. He also has 3 Gold Gloves, and while he may not have deserved any of them, I doubt voters pay muuch attention to that supposed failing.
Probably no player did more to advance his HOF chances when the Red Sox finally won a World Series than Curt Schilling, and clearly nobody saw his HOF chances hurt more by the Bosox victory than the former darling of the Fenway Faithful, Nomar. Imagine--the Red Sox only finally win when they get rid of Nomar. Now a firstbaseman, Nomar still has a good chance at the HOF if he can just stay somewhat healthy. While his HR total of 211 is less than half of A-Rod's, and he has but 833 RBI, he still has a .318 average. He is a 6 time All Star and a 2 time batting champion.
Miguel Tejada is a former MVP, a 4 time All Star, and has 2 Silver Sluggers. His career line includes a .286 average .324 OBP .480 SPT, with 240 HRs and 952 RBI. He will be 31 May 25. He has a decent shot at the HOF, unless the better known trio just mentioned totally overshadow him in the minds of voters.
Oh, I didn't mention the surprise among the shortstops, a guy with a HOF Monitor score of 108: Omar Vizquel. Unlike the other 4, Vizquel is a throwback, a slick fielding shortstop without a lot of power. He only has 73 HRs in his career, not many more than A-Rod has hit in one season. His career average of .276 with a .342 OBP and .360 SPT isn't all that outstanding either. However, he does have 2472 hits. More importantly, he has 11 Gold Gloves. I haven't been doing a comparable hitter summary in this thread, but, at age 40, that seems more appropriate here. The three most comparable hitters to Vizqul are Ozzie Smith, a HOF shortstop, Luis Aparicio, a HOF shortstop, and Dave Concepcion. I really do not expect Vizquel to make the HOF, but voting will be interesting to watch.

Cyclone792
03-08-2007, 11:01 PM
I have to think Chipper Jones will make the Hall of Fame, or at least, he definitely deserves to make the Hall. While I'd still rank Ron Santo ahead of Jones, I do think Jones is a top 10 third baseman, and that should put him in the wings of Cooperstown. Whether the writers feel the same way, that's a tough question, but I'd probably put Jones' chances to make it as a "probably" and perhaps a "most likely."

Scott Rolen is a very interesting case since some modern defensive statistics paint him as an all around phenomenal defensive third baseman, but will the writers feel the same way? Perhaps so, perhaps not. Rolen's also been a terrific hitter, and he's some excellent seasons. Unfortunately for Rolen, the injury bug may significantly lower his value in some voters' eyes since they'll claim he wasn't in the lineup enough. If Rolen retired today, I could buy the argument. But if he can put up three more pretty good seasons, I think he'll belong ... but I'm about 50/50 on if the writers would share that same sentiment.

Vinny Castilla has no chance, IMO.

Cyclone792
03-08-2007, 11:41 PM
At shortstop, Rodriguez is in. That's already been settled.

I have to think Jeter's already in too, and while he'll be deserving, I think part of what will get him in his is Yankee Mystique. Thus far in Jeter's career, Barry Larkin has been at least his equal, probably even greater. Jeter may or may not pass him, but while Larkin may have some trouble gaining election, Jeter will likely get in on the first ballot.

Another poster once made a comment - I think it was Puffy - that was something along the lines of "Barry Larkin was Derek Jeter [with better defense than Jeter] before there ever was a Derek Jeter." I'd stick them both in to Cooperstown, and hopefully the voters agree.

Nomar Garciaparra has a shot, but I still think it's a small shot, probably around 20 percent. If he can stay healthy and put up a few solid seasons at first base, he may compare favorably to Ernie Banks and grab some support. But without at least a few more good seasons, I see his chances as slim to none.

Miguel Tejada is probably 50/50 right now, IMO. He's on his way to becoming a Hall of Famer, but he still has quite a bit of work to do. If he can put up a good number of seasons similar to what he's already done, he'll solidify his status and receive very nice support. But if he fades anytime soon, he'll likely cause his Hall chances to fade with him.

Omar Vizquel has a slight chance, but that could depend on how long he's willing to hang around and play. If he gets close to 3,000 hits, I can see the voters concluding that his hit total combined with his defensive reputation will be enough to put him into Cooperstown. But without a standout hit total, I think the odds of Vizquel making it are very long. Personally, I wouldn't put him in regardless.

Outshined_One
03-09-2007, 12:01 AM
Since you brought this up, I figured I'd link to some Hardball Times articles on the HOF.

Curt Schilling vs. John Smoltz (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whom-would-you-choose/)
Mike Mussina vs. Kevin Brown (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whom-would-you-choose-again/)

Brown has a better case than people might think, despite his injuries.

RedsBaron
03-09-2007, 07:13 AM
I agree with Cyclone that it will be interesting to see what the HOF voters do with Scott Rolen. A lot of the mainstream sports media seem to already be skeptical regarding more advanced ways of measuring offensive production, and I expect writers to be even less accepting of more modern ways of measuring defense. At this point I would think Rolen has virtually no chance of making the HOF. He really does need several more solid seasons.
I totally agree with everything Cyclone posted about Barry Larkin/Derek Jeter. Unfortunately, while Jeter will go into the HOF standing up, Larkin at best will have to slide in on a close play---I just believe that Larkin will be underappreciated by the writers, and the present Veterans Committee wouldn't elect Babe Ruth if he was somehow overlooked by the writers.
I also appreciate Outshined_One's referencing the Smoltz/Schilling and Brown/Mussina articles, which I had already read. As I previously posted, I expect Schilling and Smoltz to both make the HOF, and I believe that they are deserving. I do not expect Brown to make the HOF, and I believe there are a number of pitchers much more deserving than he is. The HOF cases for Brown and Mussina are fairly close right now, with the main difference being that Mussina is active and has a chance to enhance his case.

RedsBaron
03-10-2007, 08:20 PM
The outfield. This one may take a while. I'll start by simply listing all of the active major league outfielders with a Hall of Fame Monitor score of at least 80:
Barry Bonds-345 (9th all time)
Ken Griffey Jr.-209
Sammy Sosa-191
Manny Ramirez-182
Vladmir Guerrero-163
Ichiro Suzuki-145
Bernie Williams-133
Gary Sheffield-132
Andruw Jones-100
Kenny Lofton-91
Luis Gonzalez-90
Jim Edmonds-88
Bobby Abreu-80
Moises Alou-79
Lance Berkman-73
Steve Finley-73
Maggio Ordonez-72
Alfonso Soriano-69
I know, I know, I listed a few guys with scores under 80. I just wanted to mention them here.

RedsBaron
03-10-2007, 08:37 PM
There's really not much need in my opinion to even go over the HOF qualifications or statistics of the first three outfielders in that list. If you don't already know a great deal about Bonds, Junior and Sosa, how in the world did you ever find RedsZone anyway?
Based just on his numbers Bonds is ridiculously overqualified for the HOF. He will probably pass Hornsby (349), Gehrig (352), Ted Williams (354) and Willie Mays (357) in the HOF Monitor lists this season to move into 5th place all time, behind only Cobb (451), Musial (442), Ruth (422) and Aaron (418). What HOF voters will ultimately do with him is anyone's guess. Mark McGwire's failure to be inducted on the first ballot is certainly evidence that a number of voters may not vote for Bonds. One thing that may help Bonds though is that in the 1990s, before he was ever accused of using steroids, and while he was seemingly half as big as he is now, he was the best all around player in the game and clearly had already had a HOF caliber career. With McGwire, an argument can be made that, assuming he was juiced, he may not have had a HOF worthy career without the juice; that argument cannot be made with regard to Bonds.
As for Ken Griffey Junior, I admire Junior precisely because his numbers are not tainted by suspicions of chemical help. He is a no-doubt-about-it future first ballot Hall of Famer.
Sosa? Mark McGwire's initial rejection by HOF voters does cause a cloud over his chances, but Sosa's performance at the Congressional hearings a few years ago may be instructive. In a city where being perceived to have lied under oath can get you in big time trouble, Sosa didn't do a "I'm not here to talk about the past" line that many took to be an admission by McGwire of having in fact used steroids in that past that could not be talked about. Sosa also didn't do a finger waging denial of steroid use a la Rafael Palmeiro; such finger waging denials haven't always played well for Washington politicians in other contexts, and it didn't help Palmeiro a few months later when he failed a drug test. No, Slammin' Sammy took another route--he suddenly forgot how to speak English. This memory lapse may not have been credible, but it also generally kept Sosa out of the headlines, and it may spare him some of the fallout which McGwire and Palmeiro suffered from their testimony.
All three of these guys have HOF worthy numbers. Junior will sail in. What will happen with Bonds and Sosa is anyone's guess, but I expect both of them to make it.

RedsBaron
03-10-2007, 10:35 PM
While I wasn't surprised to find the next three outfielders on the list, I was surprised at how high on the list Manny Ramirez, Vladmir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki all were.
While most fans realize that Ramirez is a terrific hitter, Manny's greatness as a player sometimes appears to be overlooked. When many fans first think of Manny, his annual demand to be traded by Boston, his rather adventuresome play in the outfield, and his general clowning may first come to mind. David Ortiz, whose HOF Monitor score is 69, is often regarded as the key member of the Red Sox. Make no mistake though--Ramirez's 182 HOF Monitor score is well earned. He has 470 HRs, 1516 RBI, and a .314 average, .411 OBP and .600 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer only reduces those numbers just a bit, to 458 1433 .302 .398 .578, all still outstanding. Ramirez, soon to be age 35, has won a batting title (.349), a HR crown (43), and a RBI title (165!). He has lead the AL in OBP, in OPS and in SPT three times each. He is a 10 time All Star and has 9 Silver Sluggers. He is also a future Hall of Famer.
Vlad Guerrero's score of 163 is also earned. He has 338 HRs, 1052 RBI, and a batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage line of .325 .390 .583. The Stat Neutralizer reduces those numbers to 325 984 .316 .380 .567, still HOF quality. He has two thirty-thirty seasons, a MVP trophy, 6 Silver Sluggers and 7 All Star selections. He is only age 31. He is also Cooperstown bound.
Then there is Ichiro Suzuki. Age 33, perhaps he will begin to fade, but what a record. In only six major league seasons, with a HOF Monitor score of 145. 1354 hits, 671 runs, a .331 average, .376 OBP and .438 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer actually increases his numbers, to .333 .379 .440. He has a stolen base title (56) and two batting titles, with a high of .372. He has both a MVP and a Rookie of the Year trophy. In six seasons, he has been an All Star six times and has six Gold Gloves. Oh, yes, he also holds the major league record with 262 hits. If he had first come to the major leagues at, say, age 22 as Pete Rose did, he would be a threat to surpass Rose's career hit record. At present, he would be a better bet than Rose to make the Hall of Fame.

mth123
03-11-2007, 07:02 AM
While I wasn't surprised to find the next three outfielders on the list, I was surprised at how high on the list Manny Ramirez, Vladmir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki all were.
While most fans realize that Ramirez is a terrific hitter, Manny's greatness as a player sometimes appears to be overlooked. When many fans first think of Manny, his annual demand to be traded by Boston, his rather adventuresome play in the outfield, and his general clowning may first come to mind. David Ortiz, whose HOF Monitor score is 69, is often regarded as the key member of the Red Sox. Make no mistake though--Ramirez's 182 HOF Monitor score is well earned. He has 470 HRs, 1516 RBI, and a .314 average, .411 OBP and .600 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer only reduces those numbers just a bit, to 458 1433 .302 .398 .578, all still outstanding. Ramirez, soon to be age 35, has won a batting title (.349), a HR crown (43), and a RBI title (165!). He has lead the AL in OBP, in OPS and in SPT three times each. He is a 10 time All Star and has 9 Silver Sluggers. He is also a future Hall of Famer.
Vlad Guerrero's score of 163 is also earned. He has 338 HRs, 1052 RBI, and a batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage line of .325 .390 .583. The Stat Neutralizer redcues those numbers to 325 984 .316 .380 .567, still HOF quality. He has two thirty-thirty seasons, a MVP trophy, 6 Silver Sluggers and 7 All Star selections. He is only age 31. He is also Cooperstown bound.
Then there is Ichiro Suzuki. Age 33, perhaps he will begin to fade, but what a record in only six major league seasons, with a HOF Monitor score of 145. 1354 hits, 671 runs, a .331 average, .376 OBP and .438 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer actually increases his numbers, to .333 .379 .440. He has a stolen base title (56) and two batting titles, with a high of .372. He has both a MVP and a Rookie of the Year trophy. In six seasons, he has been an All Star six times and has six Gold Gloves. Oh, yes, he also holds the major league record with 262 hits. If he had first come to the major leagues at, say, age 22 as Pete Rose did, he would be a threat to surpass Rose's career hit record. At present, he would be a better bet than Rose to make the Hall of Fame.

I know the knock on RBI as a stat and all, but I think an accumulation of RBI over a career has to mean something. Ramirez has a legit shot at 2000 for his career. Rare Territory. HOF Lock.

Ichiro is a case of a great player with a short career. One has to wonder if he'll start to fade before he reaches the 10 year requirement for HOF and if so will he stay in the US during his decline? Since Ichiro did not grow-up in the US, I wonder if the HOF means the same thing to him and whether it will be motivation to stick around in his twilight years. Some writers may hold his short career against him.

Guerrero is the surprise. As great as he is, I don't think of him as a HOF player. A few more years and he'll be a lock. He is not if he retired today IMO. His score is very high with the short career so far. I guess .325/.390/.583 will do that.

RedsBaron
03-11-2007, 08:03 AM
The HOF has on occasion inducted players who had less than ten full major league seasons, such as Addie Joss and Ross Youngs. I suspect Ichiro Suzuki to stay here another 4 seasons at least, but he may not have to for the voters to put him in.
Next up on the outfield list are two players who are not that much alike in their personalities, but both are current or former 38 year old Yankee outfielders who each has a career batting average of .297 and almost identical HOF Monitor scores: Bernie Williams-133 and Gary Sheffield-132.
Williams's stats are not overwhelming. He has 287 career HRs and 1257 RBI and a .381 OBP and .477 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer baely moves his numbers, reducing his career HRs to 286 for example. He is a five time All Star, has 4 Gold Gloves, and one Silver Slugger. He does have one batting title. He has never done particularly well in MVP voting, despite playing on a contender, with 7th being his highest finish in MVP voting. He does have 22 career postseason HRs (Manny Ramirezz has 20), which may be the most ever. Of the ten most similar hitters to him, none are in the HOF. Probably the best argument for Williams is that he was a core member of one of the greatest teams ever. I don't think that will be enough, and I expect the media voters to reject him. If and when his candidacy passes to the Veterans Committee, who knows, as I expect the Veterans Committee to eventually be revamped if its current members continue their absolute policy of "nyet" on everybody.
Gary Sheffield's HOF resume appears to be a bit stronger in my opinion. His career line of 455 HRs, 1501 RBI, a .297 average, .398 OBP and .525 SPT. is almost totally unaffected by the Stats Neutralizer, which gives him 463 1530 .297 .398 .525 (yes, his average, OBP and SPT are the same). Sheffield is a 9 time All Star and has five Silver Sluggers. He has a batting title and has lead the league in OBP and OPS once each. He has never won a MVP, but finished 2nd once and 3rd twice.
If Sheffield reaches 500 career HRs he probably will make the HOF, but his HOF candidacy may be hurt by his general lack of fame (mention the Yankees of his era and you first think of Jeter and A-Rod and Rivera and Torre and Clemens, not Sheffield). He also has a Mark McGwire problem, a Pete Rose problem, and an Albert Belle problem. The McGwire problem is that Sheffield's name has come up in steroid discussions. The Rose problem are the comments made by a young Sheffield of intentionally throwing baseballs in the stands during games rather than trying to get a runner out, which can be argued to be a greater offense than betting on the game, since such an act went directly against the whole idea of trying to win. The Belle problem is that, right or wrong, Sheffield comes across as not being all that likeable (despite a HOF Monitor score of 134, Cooperstown hasn't come calling for Belle--if Albert had had Kirby Puckett's image, he'd be in). Sheffield needs those 500 HRs to make the HOF IMO.

RedsBaron
03-11-2007, 08:52 AM
Andruw Jones has a HOF Monitor score of 100 (actually 100.5). If his career ended now, he would not make the HOF, as his career numbers are less than overwhelming: 342 HRs, 1023 RBI, a .267 average, a .345 OBP and a .505 SPT. The Stats Neutralizer somewhat further reduces those numbers. Despite that, I believe that Jones has an excellent chance of actually making the Hall.
Jones was only 19 years old when he first came up to the Braves and will not turn 30 until next month. His batting average and on base percentage will never be impressive, but he has improved greatly as a power hitter, with 51 and 41 HR seasons in 2005 and 2006. His career numbers in the "counting stats" such as HRs, RBI, hits (he has 1556) and runs (he has 962) could be quite high before he is done. If he was age 35 he would be unlikely to reach 500 career HRs, but at age 30, with only 158 dingers to go, he has a very good chance of reaching that milestone.
There is also the matter of Jones being one of the greatest fielders among centerfielders, ever. He has 9 Gold Gloves. He is a 5 time All Star. He has one Silver Slugger. He finished 2nd in a MVP race. He has a HR title and a RBI crown.
Given his youth, I like Jones's chances of making the HOF.

Outshined_One
03-11-2007, 04:25 PM
Ichiro might create a really interesting situation when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I know it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame and that the vast majority of people in there played in MLB, but there might be something to be said for making the Hall of Fame open to international players. If this is to be an institution which recognizes the best in baseball, why not include certain Japanese players who never made it over or only played part of their careers in the US?

If this is the case, then I could definitely see Ichiro getting in. It would be pretty sweet to see guys like Sadaharu Oh and Omar Linares recognized for what they contributed to baseball.

Otherwise, Ichiro's career is on the decline and his speed will soon start to falter. I don't see him making the Hall in this case.

Will M
03-11-2007, 09:46 PM
Ichiro might create a really interesting situation when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I know it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame and that the vast majority of people in there played in MLB, but there might be something to be said for making the Hall of Fame open to international players. If this is to be an institution which recognizes the best in baseball, why not include certain Japanese players who never made it over or only played part of their careers in the US?

If this is the case, then I could definitely see Ichiro getting in. It would be pretty sweet to see guys like Sadaharu Oh and Omar Linares recognized for what they contributed to baseball.

Otherwise, Ichiro's career is on the decline and his speed will soon start to falter. I don't see him making the Hall in this case.

i agree that the HOF should be the 'world' or 'international' HOF.
Sadaharu Oh belongs in Cooperstown.

IMO Ichiro's accomplishments in Japan definitley count when determining whether he belong in the HOF.

To not put Ichiro in the hall because he didn't get 3000 hits in the US or play a certain number of seasons in the US would be wrong.

RedsBaron
03-11-2007, 11:05 PM
The four remaining outfielders with HOF Monitor scores of at least 80 are Kenny Lofton-91, Luis Gonzalez-90, Jim Edmonds-88, and Bobby Abreu-80. At this point I do not expect any of the quartet to need to prepare a speech for delivery in Cooperstown.
Back in the mid to late 1990s I did think Lofton was on his way to a HOF career. He hit as high as .349. He lead the AL in stolen bases five straight seasons, with a high of 75. He lead the AL in hits in 1994. He scored 132 runs in a season. He was an All Star six straight seasons, 1994-99, and won a Gold Glove four straight seasons, 1993-96. Lofton was a terrific leadoff hitter and fielder.
Unfortunately Lofton failed to sustain his excellence. He's still had a fine career, with 2283 hits, 1442 runs, 599 stolen bases, and a career average of .299 with a .372 OBP and .423 SPT. The Stat Neutralizer reduces his numbers just a bit, as it does to everyone in this group, but not radically.
Lofton will turn age 40 in May. Good, not great, and not good enough IMO for the HOF.
Luis Gonzalez is another outfielder who will turn age 40 this year, on 9/3/67. His age, his HOF Monitor score, and position are about all the similarities he shares with Lofton. His game wasn't speed--it was power. He had a terrific season in Arizona's 2001 World Championship season, with a .325 average, 57 HRs and 142 RBI. There have also been whispers about the source of his power surge that season.
For his career, Gonzalez has 2372 hits, 1312 runs, 331 HRs, 1324 RBI, a .284 average, .368 OBP and .484 SPT. He is a 5 time All Star and has one Silver Slugger. A quality career, but not a HOF career, and, like Lofton, he is probably too old to push those numbers up significantly.
Then there is Jim Edmonds. He seems to be one of the least liked opposing players here at RedsZone. He has been a fine player. He will be 37 on June 27, and he has seemed to be somewhat in decline. He has 1115 runs scored, 1709 hits, 380 doubles, 350 HRs, 1068 RBI, and a .289 average with a .382 OBP and .539 SPT. He is a 4 time All Star and has one Silver Slugger to go with 8 Gold Gloves and numerous appearances on ESPN's Sportscenter's highlight reels. Edmonds will make the Hall of Fame--the Cardinals Hall of Fame. He is unlikely to make the HOF in Cooperstown.
Bobby Abreu is the youngest member of this foursome, having celebrated his 33rd birthday today, so he may have more time to pad his stats. He will need to to make the HOF. He has 951 runs, 1595 hits, 375 doubles, 205 HRs, 883 RBI, and a .302 average with a .412 OBP and .507 SPT. He is a two time All Star with one Gold Glove and one Silver Slugger. He has two 30-30 seasons in his resume.