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View Full Version : Can Milton lose his starting job from injury?



thatcoolguy_22
03-07-2007, 09:44 AM
How about this: If Milton goes down say in early may for say a 15 day dl with a couple of days of rehab and it turns into about 5 starts for w/e reason (these things do happen ) and Livingston( or substitute anyone really) comes in and plays with a line of lets say 3-1 31IP with a 3.40 ERA. Does Milton lose his job for the remainder of the season?

Do you think it would be possible for Milton to seriously be outperformed while on the DL and lose his job?

Ltlabner
03-07-2007, 09:52 AM
If Milton goes on the DL and someone steps in and serriously outperforms him I'd say the chances of him losing his job greatly increase $9m or not. Because then the Reds have a proven performer they can trust. They did the same thing with Ross/LaRue dispite LaRue making bigger bucks.

The fear, IMO, of just dumping Milton outright is they aren't sure they have anyone who can fill his shoes. So they have to eat that money and spend more to get a proven replacement to show any real improvement. Remember their premium on experience so they aren't going to just plug in someone and see what happens for the heck of it.

flyer85
03-07-2007, 10:55 AM
He certainly doesn't seem to be able to lose it through poor performance.

bucksfan2
03-07-2007, 10:59 AM
If Milton goes on the DL and someone steps in and serriously outperforms him I'd say the chances of him losing his job greatly increase $9m or not. Because then the Reds have a proven performer they can trust. They did the same thing with Ross/LaRue dispite LaRue making bigger bucks.

The fear, IMO, of just dumping Milton outright is they aren't sure they have anyone who can fill his shoes. So they have to eat that money and spend more to get a proven replacement to show any real improvement. Remember their premium on experience so they aren't going to just plug in someone and see what happens for the heck of it.

I agree. I think the reds basically consider him one of their top 5 pitchers. If Milton pitches well he deserves to be in the rotation. He basically is a 5-6 inning pitcher and can be effective when used properly. But if he continues to struggle I can see the reds looking to dump him on someone else or releasing him. But isn't Milton the pitcher who is pretty good the first time or two through the order but implodes when he faces the lineup the third time?

coachw513
03-07-2007, 11:28 AM
Only here would we be wishing to put the guy on the DL when he throws a good 3 innings against the Rays yesterday...not that I agree with any of the assessments, but we seem to have pre-destined him (in good health) to be unable to succeed...I guess I'm stubbornly more optimistic than that:pray:

Strikes Out Looking
03-07-2007, 11:44 AM
The later the season goes, the less firm will Milton's hold be on a spot in the starting rotation. It is called economics--the less he is owed for the season, the less likely it will be that the Reds feel the need to use him--especially if he is pitching lousy and the Reds are in contention.

KronoRed
03-07-2007, 11:55 AM
He certainly doesn't seem to be able to lose it through poor performance.

Two seasons worth

He's ours for 34 more starts all.

Hey Meat
03-07-2007, 12:07 PM
Hopefully he will have a halfway decent season like he did last year. Then we let him go on down the road and add another tattoo to his collection.

roby
03-07-2007, 12:14 PM
Only here would we be wishing to put the guy on the DL when he throws a good 3 innings against the Rays yesterday...not that I agree with any of the assessments, but we seem to have pre-destined him (in good health) to be unable to succeed...I guess I'm stubbornly more optimistic than that:pray:


The thing is, we all have a larger sample size than 3 innings yesterday in an exhibition game. Milton has been consistently bad..and there's no changing that fact.

fearofpopvol1
03-07-2007, 12:35 PM
Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. A lot of hypotheticals even to begin with.

It would take some amazing pitching I think to make Milton lose his starting job. He could probably be pawned off mid-season though as the remainder of his contract at that point won't be much to sneeze at for teams in the race. For some reason, I don't actually picture the Reds getting rid of him though.

Chip R
03-07-2007, 01:45 PM
Only here would we be wishing to put the guy on the DL when he throws a good 3 innings against the Rays yesterday...not that I agree with any of the assessments, but we seem to have pre-destined him (in good health) to be unable to succeed...I guess I'm stubbornly more optimistic than that:pray:


Yeah, cause pitching 1 run baseball for 3 innings in ST against a last place team is a good indicator of how he will do this year.

Eric_Davis
03-07-2007, 02:34 PM
Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. A lot of hypotheticals even to begin with.

It would take some amazing pitching I think to make Milton lose his starting job. He could probably be pawned off mid-season though as the remainder of his contract at that point won't be much to sneeze at for teams in the race. For some reason, I don't actually picture the Reds getting rid of him though.

Most likely it would have to take a great performance by someone and Milton would also have to perform poorly before the injury occurs for him to be replaced. Though most people around here hate him more for the contract he has and not for his performance, it's more likely he performs well enough to merit the REDS to keep him in the Top-4 of their rotation.

Keep in mind that below average starters usually get replaced and don't have the opportunity to throw a lot of innings. If you're a #5 starter, you're constantly getting replaced. If you're a #4 starter, you're being replaced quite often.

Only 44 pitchers out of 16 teams (2.75 pitchers per team) threw at least 162innings last year in the National League, or enough innings to qualify for titles such as ERA. Looking at that, 1/4th of #3 pitchers couldn't qualify with enough starts, all of the #4 and all of the #5. Now obviously, some #1's and #2's went down moving up some #3's and #4's.

So, skipping the top 32 (2 per team) starting pitchers, it should be good enough if Milton was among the next six starters.....beyond that and you're among the worst 8 of the pitchers who were able to go out there and pitch at least one inning for every game your team played last year.....

If Milton had pitched 9-1/3 more innings last year he would have been #33. The point here is that it's difficult to find starters who can go out there every week and maintain some kind of decent performance. If it wasn't, there would have been more than 44 of them last year.

Now there's another 80 guys who pitched 1/3 as much, or 1/2 as much, or 2/3 as much, or 3/4 as much who pitched better than Milton did last year. (Forget the guys who threw 50 innings or less.)

This tells me that other clubs see a guy pitch the way Milton did last year and they don't let him pitch as much.

And then there's teams like the REDS, who didn't have a choice because their other pitchers are as bad or much worse, like Ramirez and Claussen and Johnson and Franklin and Lohse.

It should be a different case this year, though, with some of the new pitchers added to the mix. So expectations on Milton should be higher, and he might have to perform better than he did last year to keep himself in the REDS' top-4 rotation starters.

thatcoolguy_22
03-07-2007, 02:43 PM
Most likely it would have to take a great performance by someone and Milton would also have to perform poorly before the injury occurs for him to be replaced. Though most people around here hate him more for the contract he has and not for his performance, it's more likely he performs well enough to merit the REDS to keep him in the Top-4 of their rotation.

Keep in mind that below average starters usually get replaced and don't have the opportunity to throw a lot of innings. If you're a #5 starter, you're constantly getting replaced. If you're a #4 starter, you're being replaced quite often.

Only 44 pitchers out of 16 teams (2.75 pitchers per team) threw at least 162innings last year in the National League, or enough innings to qualify for titles such as ERA. Looking at that, 1/4th of #3 pitchers couldn't qualify with enough starts, all of the #4 and all of the #5. Now obviously, some #1's and #2's went down moving up some #3's and #4's.

So, skipping the top 32 (2 per team) starting pitchers, it should be good enough if Milton was among the next six starters.....beyond that and you're among the worst 8 of the pitchers who were able to go out there and pitch at least one inning for every game your team played last year.....

If Milton had pitched 9-1/3 more innings last year he would have been #33. The point here is that it's difficult to find starters who can go out there every week and maintain some kind of decent performance. If it wasn't, there would have been more than 44 of them last year.

Now there's another 80 guys who pitched 1/3 as much, or 1/2 as much, or 2/3 as much, or 3/4 as much who pitched better than Milton did last year. (Forget the guys who threw 50 innings or less.)

This tells me that other clubs see a guy pitch the way Milton did last year and they don't let him pitch as much.

And then there's teams like the REDS, who didn't have a choice because their other pitchers are as bad or much worse, like Ramirez and Claussen and Johnson and Franklin and Lohse.

It should be a different case this year, though, with some of the new pitchers added to the mix. So expectations on Milton should be higher, and he might have to perform better than he did last year to keep himself in the REDS' top-4 rotation starters.


great reply! thanks :beerme:

Rocket_Fuel
03-08-2007, 08:01 PM
Do you think it would be possible for Milton to seriously be outperformed while on the DL and lose his job?

God I hope so.

RedLegSuperStar
03-08-2007, 08:51 PM
I can't see it. Milton is in his final year of his contract and if he can pitch and show some value the Reds are going to put him on the mound. Milton was DanO's guy.. I know he has the Twin connection.. but he is still DanO's signing. Looking at contracts for those newly signed free agents this off season makes Milton marketable. Especially if he pitches like 06. Of course to get a decent return he is going to have to pitch like he is in the last year of his contract. I just can't see the Reds not trying to profit off of Milton who I really don't see here this time next season.

As far as the DL.. he only loses his job/ gets replaced if its past the waiver deadline and/or put on the DL for 60 days. As long as he can pitch.. they are going to throw him out there.

Big Daddy P
03-09-2007, 07:58 AM
Hey, as long as he does LOSE his job...any reason is good enough for me!

Eric_Davis
03-09-2007, 01:41 PM
Also, unless a RED steps up and proves they can pitch better than him, of which only two pitchers proved they could last year, then he'll still be there. I can see Milton pitching better this year, too. He's a gamer. He'll step up to the challenge.

BRM
03-09-2007, 02:21 PM
Also, unless a RED steps up and proves they can pitch better than him, of which only two pitchers proved they could last year, then he'll still be there. I can see Milton pitching better this year, too. He's a gamer. He'll step up to the challenge.

Well, that's pretty damning of the Reds front office in my opinion. If 150 innings of 5+ ERA is better than all of but two of your other choices, that's just disgusting. A team should be able to find at least three and hopefully four pitchers who can best that.

Eric_Davis
03-09-2007, 04:02 PM
Well, that's pretty damning of the Reds front office in my opinion. If 150 innings of 5+ ERA is better than all of but two of your other choices, that's just disgusting. A team should be able to find at least three and hopefully four pitchers who can best that.

Absolutely. Most clubs do not allow a pitcher of that caliber to throw that many innings. But then again, in 18 months, Krivsky added Arroyo, an All-Star, and is working on getting others who can pitch better than Milton. I think he got one in Saarloos.

Rocket_Fuel
03-11-2007, 02:23 PM
Agreed, I really like Kirk Saarloos. Kyle Loshe has potential, but he has had potential for a long time. Harang, Arroyo and Saarloos definitely would be solid pitchers in the rotation, then round it out with any two of the other candidates BUT Milton. Milton is just horrible.

jmac
03-11-2007, 04:23 PM
Milton's ERA in ST so far after todays game is 6.23.

You know this guy is really consistent :rolleyes:

wheels
03-11-2007, 07:43 PM
Eric Milton gets the benefit of the doubt more than any pitcher I've ever seen.

It doesn't seem to matter how bad he pitches. He threw a no hitter once, and didn't embarrass himself for one season, so he's obviously a "proven vet" and a "battler", not to mention "the team's best option for #3 starter".

How bad does the guy have to be before people start realizing it?

membengal
03-11-2007, 08:01 PM
No idea. Brantley tried to help him out today by talking up his stuff, but then was left holding a big steaming pile of dung when it left Milton as fast as it appeared he had it. Marty continues to be less than impressed, listening to today's call, that's for sure...

Chip R
03-11-2007, 08:52 PM
No idea. Brantley tried to help him out today by talking up his stuff, but then was left holding a big steaming pile of dung when it left Milton as fast as it appeared he had it. Marty continues to be less than impressed, listening to today's call, that's for sure...


I gotta give Marty credit. He's usually got serious man-love for guys like Milton no matter how they perform but he's just as sick of him as we are.

jmac
03-11-2007, 10:36 PM
Reckon the reds couldnt come up with a "jimmmahh haynes" type DL job ?

flyer85
03-11-2007, 10:39 PM
Eric Milton gets the benefit of the doubt more than any pitcher I've ever seen.that's what $9M a year will do.

Cedric
03-11-2007, 11:35 PM
I gotta give Marty credit. He's usually got serious man-love for guys like Milton no matter how they perform but he's just as sick of him as we are.

I don't know where the Marty is stubborn thing has came from. He's wrong on players plenty of times, but he's not afraid to admit he was wrong. Royce Clayton last year was a perfect example.