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View Full Version : Would you...Bailey for Kazmir?



Benihana
03-07-2007, 04:12 PM
Would you trade Homer Bailey straight up for Scott Kazmir right now? Interesting question given the Reds brass' history with Kazmir. I don't think I would, given Kazmir's proximity to free agency, and the fact that the Reds are built to contend in 2008/2009/2010 more than this year.

Red Leader
03-07-2007, 04:14 PM
I need to see Kazmir's contract.

Off hand, I'd say no. Kazmir's injury last year kind of scares me as being a long term problem or a lingering injury. You add in that Kazmir isn't as cheap as Bailey and that, like you said, they are better built to contend on Homer's time frame, and it's a little easier to pick Homer.

Go Blue!

pedro
03-07-2007, 04:19 PM
Nope.

Bailey's size portends to better long term success.

dfs
03-07-2007, 04:20 PM
Roster churn for the sake of roster churn is never a good thing.
Hurts the team and all that.

Team Clark
03-07-2007, 04:21 PM
No. Bailey has too much upside. Kazmir is really good but not worth trading Bailey at this point. I wouldn't mind sending Milton, Belisle, and just about anybody else in that shoddy bullpen to get Kaz. That is a pipe dream but a nice young, talented rotation. Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Kazmir and who cares! :laugh:

dougdirt
03-07-2007, 04:47 PM
As much as I love Kazmir, I have to say no. Like was mentioned earlier, his injury worries me.

WMR
03-07-2007, 04:52 PM
I'd rather invent a time machine and go back and hold a gun to Obie/Lindner's respective heads and make them draft the kid. Ohhhhh how sweet he would look right now pencilled into our rotation!

KronoRed
03-07-2007, 04:53 PM
No, but I'd trade Chris Gruler for him :D

StillFunkyB
03-07-2007, 04:56 PM
No.

I would rather the Reds take a chance on their own prospect. I am really starting to have some serious man love for HB. :D

UKFlounder
03-07-2007, 04:58 PM
I'd rather invent a time machine and go back and hold a gun to Obie/Lindner's respective heads and make them draft the kid. Ohhhhh how sweet he would look right now pencilled into our rotation!

You mean draft him like they drafted Sowers?

How'd that work out? :bang:

Falls City Beer
03-07-2007, 05:10 PM
Yes. Without thinking twice.

OnBaseMachine
03-07-2007, 06:28 PM
No. Homer has the better frame, is cheaper, and will have a better career IMO.

MWM
03-07-2007, 07:28 PM
Yes. Without thinking twice.

Same here.

pedro
03-07-2007, 07:30 PM
Same here.

at this time last year i would have. but not now.

Falls City Beer
03-07-2007, 07:32 PM
No. Homer has the better frame, is cheaper, and will have a better career IMO.

Homer also has the control problems of Bea Arthur.

ThatPitchIsDunn
03-07-2007, 07:35 PM
In a heartbeat. Kazmir can throw more than one pitch for strikes and mighty effectively I might add.

pedro
03-07-2007, 07:38 PM
Homer also has the control problems of Bea Arthur.


before last year the same could be said about Kazmir. He still walked more than 3 per game last year, even though he did have a very good year.

Dom Heffner
03-07-2007, 07:39 PM
I don't have anything handy to back me up here, but it seems like Kazmir throws an incredible amount of pitches.

His spring training outing the other day was laborious.

dougdirt
03-07-2007, 07:40 PM
In a heartbeat. Kazmir can throw more than one pitch for strikes and mighty effectively I might add.

And yet his last start every change up he threw was a strike.....

GAC
03-07-2007, 07:46 PM
Kazmir missed most of the second half last year because of shoulder problems. He's on a pitch count this spring as a precaution. No, I wouldn't trade Bailey for Kazmir at this stage.

Sowers may end up having a better career then Kazmir. ;)

OnBaseMachine
03-07-2007, 08:01 PM
Homer also has the control problems of Bea Arthur.

Kazmir - 100 walks in 186 innings in 2005.

Well, it's not like Kazmir's has impeccable control.

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 12:37 AM
In a heartbeat. Kazmir can throw more than one pitch for strikes and mighty effectively I might add.

Stud lefties are like unicorns.

Stud righties, not so much.

dougdirt
03-08-2007, 08:27 AM
Stud lefties are like unicorns.

Stud righties, not so much.

I am going to disagree completely. Stud pitchers alone are very rare.

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 10:02 AM
I am going to disagree completely. Stud pitchers alone are very rare.

How many elite lefties have you seen over the course of history of baseball?

How many elite righties have you seen in the same timespan?

Patrick Bateman
03-08-2007, 12:50 PM
How many elite lefties have you seen over the course of history of baseball?

How many elite righties have you seen in the same timespan?

I'm not sure why this matters. If these pitchers have the same production, I could care less what hand they do it with.

RedEye
03-08-2007, 12:58 PM
No, but I might trade Bailey, Bruce, and Votto for Kazmir, Markakis, and Sowers...

PuffyPig
03-08-2007, 07:43 PM
I'm not sure why this matters. If these pitchers have the same production, I could care less what hand they do it with.

I think he meant that LH pitchers are more risky. Not that I know if that is true.

My only problem with the trade is the perceived injury risk of Kazmir. That scares me. I think that, while Kazmir is more of a sure think now, Bailey has a higher upside. But it's probably just because currently a Red.

Spitball
03-08-2007, 09:35 PM
Taller pitchers usually generate more body leverage while shorter pitchers have to expend a little more effort to their deliveries in order to gain velocity. However, fluidity of motion, rather than size, would be the major concern with arm injuries. Pedro Martinez was traded by the Dodgers for a second baseman because they felt he was too short and frail to be a starting pitcher. His mechanics are fluid despite a lively arm action, though. Roy Oswalt is another short pitcher, but he is a short pitcher with comfortable, straight-forward mechanics. Like Ron Guidry, Kazmir may be short, but he has a smooth, easy delivery like Guidry that should bode well for his career.

Also, Kazmir's control is improving. He had a 1.27 WHIP while drastically cutting his walks last season.

I believe Kazmir is perhaps one of the top three young pitchers in baseball right now. I would do the trade.

TRF
11-06-2007, 03:14 PM
Taller pitchers usually generate more body leverage while shorter pitchers have to expend a little more effort to their deliveries in order to gain velocity. However, fluidity of motion, rather than size, would be the major concern with arm injuries. Pedro Martinez was traded by the Dodgers for a second baseman because they felt he was too short and frail to be a starting pitcher. His mechanics are fluid despite a lively arm action, though. Roy Oswalt is another short pitcher, but he is a short pitcher with comfortable, straight-forward mechanics. Like Ron Guidry, Kazmir may be short, but he has a smooth, easy delivery like Guidry that should bode well for his career.

Also, Kazmir's control is improving. He had a 1.27 WHIP while drastically cutting his walks last season.

I believe Kazmir is perhaps one of the top three young pitchers in baseball right now. I would do the trade.

I saw this after posting about Edwin Jackson.

Um... yes? I wouldn't have to think once. My only thought now is damn Lindner. He should have been a Red. I truly believe had Cast owned the Reds then he would have been.

Joseph
11-06-2007, 03:21 PM
I thought this was a new thread when I started reading and was shocked at all the NO votes.

Wonder how different it is a season removed.

I'd do it.

deltachi8
11-06-2007, 03:23 PM
Yep, then and now.

Matt700wlw
11-06-2007, 03:24 PM
How about Cueto?

...just throwing it out there...

Benihana
11-06-2007, 03:24 PM
How about Cueto?

..just throwing it out there...

yes and yes

Matt700wlw
11-06-2007, 03:25 PM
Yep, then and now.

As against trading Bailey as I've been.....this would be one I consider.....or Cueto.....(not both). Ace lefties don't come around everyday....I'll trade anybody for the right deal....and I mean that. Certain guys takes more for me to budge than others.

....I just wonder if Kaz's arm will hold up...

camisadelgolf
11-06-2007, 03:40 PM
I think Kazmir's best days are ahead of him, but I wouldn't pull the trigger based on salary reasons. I think Kazmir would price himself out of Cincinnati very quickly, and although I want to see the Reds win ASAP, I also don't want to give up the farm just to win the NL Central. If Bailey proves to be a bust, it would be a great trade, but if Bailey turns out to be as expected, it could help the Reds compete for a longer period of time than Kazmir would, in my opinion.

M2
11-06-2007, 04:07 PM
The correct answer always was and always should be "Hell yes."

dougdirt
11-06-2007, 04:12 PM
The correct answer always was and always should be "Hell yes."

Disagree.

I lean toward no becuase of his contract status and Baileys.... I can certainly see where people would say yes, but I lean toward no.

Where I disagree with what you say though is the always should be part. What happens if Bailey comes out next season in the first half and gives you 76 innings, 70 strikeouts, 1.25 WHIP and lets just say that Kazmir does a very similar thing.... why then is it 'hell yes'?

TRF
11-06-2007, 04:18 PM
Kazmir is LH, and that goes a long way in this division. Kazmir has youth AND experience on his side. That goes a long way period. Right now Bailey just has youth.

dougdirt
11-06-2007, 04:20 PM
I never understood the handedness in starting pitching. You either get guys out or you don't. Not that this applies to Kazmir, becuase he is ridiculously good, just that somehow because someone is a lefty it gives them bonus points or something. There are more right handed hitters in baseball than there are lefties, so why is being a lefty some sort of special bonus?

M2
11-06-2007, 04:24 PM
Disagree.

I lean toward no becuase of his contract status and Baileys.... I can certainly see where people would say yes, but I lean toward no.

Where I disagree with what you say though is the always should be part. What happens if Bailey comes out next season in the first half and gives you 76 innings, 70 strikeouts, 1.25 WHIP and lets just say that Kazmir does a very similar thing.... why then is it 'hell yes'?

You mean what if Homer Bailey turns into something he's not? Let's pretend I'm not going to speculate on that. Scott Kazmir is a major league pitcher and a damn fine one. Homer Bailey isn't and his lack of command, particularly on his secondary pitches, is a major hurdle that may cause him trouble (the kind of trouble that causes other teams to score piles of runs) for the next few years even if he ultimately turns into a major league pitcher.

Always take the bird in hand (in this case one you'd have in hand for the next three years). This is particularly true for a pitching-starved club like the clubs. Maybe doesn't put food on the table.

If this were the other way around, if the Reds had Kazmir and the Rays had Bailey, the response around here would be that the Reds would have to be out of their minds to make that deal.

Along those lines, Aaron Harang for Jake McGee? I'll go with "Hell no!"

NJReds
11-06-2007, 04:28 PM
When teams like the D'Rays and Giants start talking about trading young power arms like Kazmir and Lincecum, it's a big red flag to me. Like the guy is an injury waiting to happen.

bucksfan2
11-06-2007, 04:30 PM
No, I dont trade Bailey for Kazmir.

1. There is no logic behind the D Rays trading Kazmir. Trading cheep, young, effective arms isn't a way to win in this baseball environment.
2. If the Rays are considering this there is probably something they are worried about in Kasmir.
3. Too many people have soured on Bailey too quickly. He didn't have a great start but give him some time. Heck go back and look at Beckett's season with Boston in 06 and you can see that even the best pitchers have rough spots.

TRF
11-06-2007, 04:34 PM
Bailey isn't the best pitcher yet, and Beckett already had a nice shiny ring because of being the best pitcher in the post season in 2003. Beckett had a track record of being a stud on the mound. Bailey has hype and a fine fastball.

At least at this point in his career.

BRM
11-06-2007, 04:35 PM
1. There is no logic behind the D Rays trading Kazmir. Trading cheep, young, effective arms isn't a way to win in this baseball environment.


Kazmir won't be cheap for much longer. I suspect that would be the primary for the Rays trading him, if they do trade him.

M2
11-06-2007, 04:35 PM
When teams like the D'Rays and Giants start talking about trading young power arms like Kazmir and Lincecum, it's a big red flag to me. Like the guy is an injury waiting to happen.

IMO, that's risk a team like the Reds have to take. You get the full medical history on these guys, you give them a full physical before the deal is approved. If nothing glaring turns up, then you've got the kind of pitcher who can change your franchise's fortunes.

NJReds
11-06-2007, 04:48 PM
IMO, that's risk a team like the Reds have to take. You get the full medical history on these guys, you give them a full physical before the deal is approved. If nothing glaring turns up, then you've got the kind of pitcher who can change your franchise's fortunes.

Agreed. If a GM is dumb enough to trade a guy like that, then you have to go for it.

lollipopcurve
11-06-2007, 04:53 PM
yeah, 3 years of controlling Kazmir is a no brainer -- but make sure his arm looks OK

Puffy
11-06-2007, 05:23 PM
The correct answer always was and always should be "Hell yes."

Absolutely - I was reading this and the first 6 or 7 people were saying no and I thought I was in some alternate universe.

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

MWM
11-06-2007, 05:25 PM
So have people here just decided that the Reds should NEVER pay someone who costs a lot of money? That's my perception of the majority of people here. I totally get why you wouldn't want to overpay for certain types of commodities, but it seems that every time a hypothetical is brought up in acquiring someone like Kazmir, that a lot of people say no simply he'd cost too much.

At some point you've got to be willing to step up and pay for great players. If you're always giving a "no" to every player who's expensive, you may as well just fold up and contract the team. You have to pay from time to time. If you're not willing to pay for a young lefty fireballer, then you're not willing to pay for anything, IMO. You can't have success always shopping at the bargain basement. At some point, you have to pay the asking price.

Cyclone792
11-06-2007, 05:32 PM
So have people here just decided that the Reds should NEVER pay someone who costs a lot of money? That's my perception of the majority of people here. I totally get why you wouldn't want to overpay for certain types of commodities, but it seems that every time a hypothetical is brought up in acquiring someone like Kazmir, that a lot of people say no simply he'd cost too much.

At some point you've got to be willing to step up and pay for great players. If you're always giving a "no" to every player who's expensive, you may as well just fold up and contract the team. You have to pay from time to time. If you're not willing to pay for a young lefty fireballer, then you're not willing to pay for anything, IMO. You can't have success always shopping at the bargain basement. At some point, you have to pay the asking price.

Precisely, MWM. There were always a few people cool on Dunn because of his skill set, but once he started making decent money a bunch of people started complaining about him. The same thing is going to happen to Arroyo once his big money years kick in, and it could very well happen to Harang too.

Brandon Phillips is loved now, but once that service time clock gets up around that 4-5 year range, that stance will change. Jay Bruce is considered a god of a prospect, but people will start picking apart his flaws once he nears free agency.

Everybody loves great players, but apparently not many people actually want to pay them what they're worth.

dougdirt
11-06-2007, 05:41 PM
So have people here just decided that the Reds should NEVER pay someone who costs a lot of money? That's my perception of the majority of people here. I totally get why you wouldn't want to overpay for certain types of commodities, but it seems that every time a hypothetical is brought up in acquiring someone like Kazmir, that a lot of people say no simply he'd cost too much.

At some point you've got to be willing to step up and pay for great players. If you're always giving a "no" to every player who's expensive, you may as well just fold up and contract the team. You have to pay from time to time. If you're not willing to pay for a young lefty fireballer, then you're not willing to pay for anything, IMO. You can't have success always shopping at the bargain basement. At some point, you have to pay the asking price.

I think its a little different than just paying the players. There is a difference between paying Kazmir 20-25 million over the next 3 years and paying him 20-25 million over the next 3 years and giving away Homer Bailey (or other talent). Like I said earlier in the thread, I see both sides of the trade and understand them both.... so I am not arguing either way, just giving insight to what the other side is opposed to doing.

blumj
11-06-2007, 05:57 PM
You know, there is at least a decent chance that Bailey won't be a particularly good pitcher until after he's already started to get expensive himself.

Patrick Bateman
11-06-2007, 06:17 PM
You have to do it because Bailey has a very long way to go to be in Kazmir's category. A very long way, and in that time anything can happen. Injuries, ineffectiveness, lack of development, who knows. Prospects that are/were just as good as Bailey have faltered, and it's not an odd occurrence.

Kazmir is what we want Bailey to become, and he's already there. He's going to be expensive shortly, but he'll be very worth it, and have a guaranteed ace. You just don't know what you have with Bailey.

I like Bailey, but you have to recognize the issues he still has, and it's very far from a lock that he can overcome them.

Patrick Bateman
11-06-2007, 06:19 PM
You know, there is at least a decent chance that Bailey won't be a particularly good pitcher until after he's already started to get expensive himself.

This is a good point, especially if the Reds are going to develop him in the majors as seems to be the scenario. Following normal progression from where he is right now, my expectations for Bailey in the present aren't very high. We might very well see at least a few unnatractive seasons out of Bailey before he's particularly good, and at that point he's about a year away from cashing in.

Mario-Rijo
11-06-2007, 07:14 PM
IMO, that's risk a team like the Reds have to take. You get the full medical history on these guys, you give them a full physical before the deal is approved. If nothing glaring turns up, then you've got the kind of pitcher who can change your franchise's fortunes.

I like Bailey as much as the next guy and the fact he is a red from draft to majors would help me lean towards keeping him in a lot of deals.

That said M2's quote above says it all for me. In fact I wouldn't hang up right away if the Rays asked for both Bailey and Cueto. I may have to call them back to be sure but I may very well do the deal if that's what it would take to get him.

Injury free he's a Red at this point if I'm the GM, and it's time to fire up the playoff bandwagon. 'Cause frankly I'm simply running out of patience for something to "develop".

jojo
11-06-2007, 07:21 PM
Would you trade Homer Bailey straight up for Scott Kazmir right now? Interesting question given the Reds brass' history with Kazmir. I don't think I would, given Kazmir's proximity to free agency, and the fact that the Reds are built to contend in 2008/2009/2010 more than this year.

I'd make that trade in a second and then immediately pray for forgiveness. Stealing is a sin. :cool:

jojo
11-06-2007, 07:24 PM
Kazmir missed most of the second half last year because of shoulder problems. He's on a pitch count this spring as a precaution. No, I wouldn't trade Bailey for Kazmir at this stage.

Sowers may end up having a better career then Kazmir. ;)

Kazmir pitched 206 innings last year making 19 starts in the first half and 15 starts in the second half.

harangatang
11-06-2007, 07:45 PM
A proven commodity straight up for an unproven commodity? Absolutely.

blumj
11-06-2007, 07:48 PM
Kazmir pitched 206 innings last year making 19 starts in the first half and 15 starts in the second half.
Fooled another one. That post was from March.

Highlifeman21
11-06-2007, 08:23 PM
Disagree.

I lean toward no becuase of his contract status and Baileys.... I can certainly see where people would say yes, but I lean toward no.

Where I disagree with what you say though is the always should be part. What happens if Bailey comes out next season in the first half and gives you 76 innings, 70 strikeouts, 1.25 WHIP and lets just say that Kazmir does a very similar thing.... why then is it 'hell yes'?

If Bailey comes out next season in the 1st half and gives us 76 IP, 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP, someone should check fingerprints, or maybe a dental record, b/c that definitely won't be Homer Bailey.

Based on his 45.1 IP in 2007, his 76 IP would project to 47 K and 47 BB, while having a WHIP of around 1.50. That's a little different than 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP.

bucksfan2
11-07-2007, 08:36 AM
If Bailey comes out next season in the 1st half and gives us 76 IP, 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP, someone should check fingerprints, or maybe a dental record, b/c that definitely won't be Homer Bailey.

Based on his 45.1 IP in 2007, his 76 IP would project to 47 K and 47 BB, while having a WHIP of around 1.50. That's a little different than 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP.

In Kazimr's first 6 starts he had an era of 5.76 and a WHIP of over 1.6. Compare that to Bailey's first 9 starts and Bailey's numbers were actually better. It is amazing how fast and hard Bailey has fallen. He is almost like a new car. He had all the buzz coming into his first start. Similar to going to a car lot and buying a car. Once Bailey stepped across the white foul line his value dropped similar to that of driving a new car off the car lot.

Why is it that there are very few people who think the reds players can actually IMPROVE on their past season? We saw this with Phillips this past off season. I think there are people out there who are happy with prospects and their success in the minors and then root for them to fail when they get to the reds so they can complain about something. :beerme: to every reds player taking a step back from last year's numbers so we can all complain about something.

dougdirt
11-07-2007, 08:57 AM
If Bailey comes out next season in the 1st half and gives us 76 IP, 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP, someone should check fingerprints, or maybe a dental record, b/c that definitely won't be Homer Bailey.

Based on his 45.1 IP in 2007, his 76 IP would project to 47 K and 47 BB, while having a WHIP of around 1.50. That's a little different than 70 K and a 1.25 WHIP.

He was hurt for three starts. In his 35 innings he pitched while healthy, he had a WHIP of 1.31 (28 hits + 18 walks). The strikeouts weren't anything good, but what I saw at the end of the season, I think he is primed to break out.

fearofpopvol1
11-07-2007, 12:53 PM
Yep...I'd want to have him pass a physical, but if everything checks out medically, I'd do it without thinking twice.

Kc61
11-07-2007, 01:38 PM
I'm hopeful Bailey will pan out as a good starting pitcher. But looking at Kazmir's numbers, I'd make this trade in a minute (assuming Kazmir's health checks out).