PDA

View Full Version : Josh Hamilton's Plate Discipline



Cyclone792
03-07-2007, 09:50 PM
Ever since the Reds acquired Josh Hamilton, fans have been mesmerized by the "what if" factor of Hamilton actually making an impact in the lineup for the Reds at some point in their future. With only a handful of minor league games last season, his first real game action in four years, and after years of drug addiction, Hamilton walked into spring training as nothing more than a lottery ticket. A huge talent, yes, but also a huge lottery ticket.

Of course, so far in spring training, Hamilton's been crushing the ball, and the fascination with his "talent" level has taken off to new heights. Will Hamilton make it? Can Hamilton make it? Nobody knows as it's still way too early to tell, though I will submit that his chances of making the active roster out of spring training are now 100 percent, barring an injury. The Reds have seen what he's capable of, and they're not going to let it go. Given that defensively he can definitely help the team off the bench, I've never been opposed to having Hamilton on the roster. Prior to spring training, I did advocate caution with Hamilton because we really have no idea what to expect. He was a guy with 23 games at the AA level six years ago, and only 15 games period in the minors since 2002.

But even with my cautionary glance at what Hamilton can provide us, I've observed quite possibly the best thing I could ever hope to observe with Hamilton thus far in spring training ...

The guy seems to just know the strike zone. And just not know the strike zone like a run-of-the-mill MLB hitter. But really know the strike zone.

Hamilton's plate appearances, from best as I've been able to observe listening to the radio and hearing his batting counts, has been a clinic full of an ability to recognize balls and strikes. He's displayed an astonishing amount of plate discipline with a remarkable batting eye, and he's shown that he's capable and willing to lay off bad pitches with the sense to get a good pitch to hit. Then when he finds a good pitch to hit, he's able to recognize it and crush it.

Statistically, Hamilton has three walks in 20 plate appearances thus far in spring training. For those scoring at home, that's a rate of 90 walks over 600 plate appearances (note that this doesn't mean he'll walk 90 times if he finds the plate 600 times, but that's a good rate to see). Even during plate appearances that Hamilton is not walking, my observations this spring have been that he's getting himself into good hitter's counts.

All the above is a trait of excellent plate discipline, and amazingly Hamilton's showing these traits already during spring training. Any hitter that knows the strike zone and recognizes the difference between balls and strikes gives himself an undeniable advantage to hit major league pitching successfully.

There is a chance that what we've seen with Hamilton's plate discipline so far is a mirage, and small sample size warnings abound here. But as he strolls to the plate more and more the picture will clear up a bit. I'd love to be able to track every single pitch that Hamilton is seeing this spring training, but unfortunately the box scores are not as detailed for exhibition games. Once the season begins, I'm going to make an effort to track in detail each of Hamilton's plate appearances.

Likewise, once the season starts, we'll be able to see Hamilton hitting instead of relying on box scores and radio play by play, and we'll have a much better understanding if he really is showing the amount of plate discipline that the stat lines and radio announcers claim.

Just remember to not yet get carried away and suddenly believe that Hamilton's going to quickly develop into the monster talent that Reds fans are dreaming about. That much being said, we can understand that if he's able to continually display the amount of plate discipline he's already showing early in spring training, his chances of succeeding in the majors (and in a Reds uniform) increase exponentially, and so far that's really all we can ask and hope for.

OnBaseMachine
03-07-2007, 10:10 PM
Phenomenal post cyclone.

I agree with everything you said. Hamilton just looks so comfortable in the batters box and his knowledge of the strikezone seems to be incredible so far. That plate discipline added with his enormous power makes it nearly impossible not to get excited about him. I think Hamilton is going to make Krivsky look like a genius before long.

paintmered
03-07-2007, 10:31 PM
Cyclone, you consistently make excellent contributions to this board. That was a phenominal post and I think you are dead on with your assessment.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-07-2007, 10:41 PM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nEStHjYRPys I recorded his last 3 AB's of the night. I didn't think to get his first one, which was a walk, if anyone cares to take a look.

steig
03-07-2007, 10:56 PM
I'm hoping Hamilton works out well for the Reds and develops into the player that he has been projected to be. However, we may be getting a little to excited at this point. There have only been a small number of games and they are spring training games at that. If a star player doesn't do well in spring we shrug it off as spring training, so why should we get so excited about a minor leaguer doing well? I'm trying to pause with Hamilton and wait until later in the spring. If he hits this well the last two weeks of spring training then I think we could really have a good prospect on the team.

WMR
03-07-2007, 11:12 PM
:clap: :clap: :clap:

Cyclone = :pimp:

Cyclone792
03-07-2007, 11:32 PM
I'm hoping Hamilton works out well for the Reds and develops into the player that he has been projected to be. However, we may be getting a little to excited at this point. There have only been a small number of games and they are spring training games at that. If a star player doesn't do well in spring we shrug it off as spring training, so why should we get so excited about a minor leaguer doing well? I'm trying to pause with Hamilton and wait until later in the spring. If he hits this well the last two weeks of spring training then I think we could really have a good prospect on the team.

Well, I'm specifically looking at his plate approach moreso than his results. The results are nice, and they'll get people excited regardless, but it's Hamilton's approach, eye, and plate discipline that has me thinking, "hey, this guy may have a little better shot than I thought."

What I originally thought we'd see in Hamilton this spring is a hitter who would have a difficult time judging the strike zone and recognizing the difference between balls and strikes. Lots of hitters can hit 500 foot home runs with batting practice pitches, and Hamilton is undoubtedly one of them, but many of those hitters have a great deal of trouble with live MLB pitching due to just not knowing the strike zone. Even hitters who have no knowledge of the strike zone can get hot for a week or two and benefit from some fortunate breaks. I figured Hamilton would just fit in with this group, and I thought what we'd see quite a bit this spring would be him having trouble recognizing the strike zone and subsequently opting to swing at bad pitches out of the strike zone. It would have been a major sign of a hitter suffering a long layoff from actually playing in games, which Hamilton went through.

Instead, so far Hamilton has done anything but get himself out on bad pitches out of the strike zone. He's actively working pitchers, laying off bad pitches, actively working the count, getting in good hitting counts, and finding his pitch to hit. This is what I've noticed from him so far, and this is what I'm hoping he's able to continue doing.

Granted, his total competition on the mound so far is probably AAA or AAAA caliber pitching, but his current level of plate discipline shown has been an asset as well as a pleasant surprise. It's important that he maintains this ability, and if he does, he has a little bit better chance to succeed than I originally thought.

vaticanplum
03-07-2007, 11:38 PM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nEStHjYRPys I recorded his last 3 AB's of the night. I didn't think to get his first one, which was a walk, if anyone cares to take a look.

Thank you so much for this. First baseball I've seen this year. Also the first time I've ever seen Hamilton bat. I love his stance...he's got a great straight back like Hideki Matsui. Hard to tell from the video but even his run down the first base line makes it look like he has good speed as well.

Oh and thanks to you too cyclone :beerme:

Redhook
03-07-2007, 11:48 PM
His stance and swing are much better than I thought they would be. He looks intimidating at the plate. I like that. A lot. Even though he didn't get a hit in those at-bats I like the smoothness to his approach. It's pretty easy to see how and why he was the #1 pick in '99.

Caveat Emperor
03-07-2007, 11:52 PM
Granted, his total competition on the mound so far is probably AAA or AAAA caliber pitching, but his current level of plate discipline shown has been an asset as well as a pleasant surprise.

The important take away, though, is no matter what you think of the competition level he's facing right now, it's better than anything he's previously seen before in his professional career. The calibur of guys (A-AA) that Hamilton was facing before his layoff aren't even in big league camps or playing in spring training games.

The key to good hitting is learning to recognize the difference between the pitch you can hit and the pitch the pitcher wants you to try hitting. At the base of that skill set is the requirement of knowledge of the strike zone. I'll reserve judgement on Hamilton's proficency with this skill until I can actually watch him in a few ABs on TV or in person -- but if he's advanced along in that skill, the rest will come naturaly with more swings against live pitching.

I agree with Cyclone, I've got Hamilton as a 100% lock to make the Reds roster at this point.

Cyclone792
03-08-2007, 01:41 AM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nEStHjYRPys I recorded his last 3 AB's of the night. I didn't think to get his first one, which was a walk, if anyone cares to take a look.

Great video footage!

Thanks for taking the time to record/post it up.

ramp101
03-08-2007, 02:14 AM
With all due respect Cyclone, I really don't see how you can seriously tell about his plate discipline and "eye" just by listening on the radio.

Wheelhouse
03-08-2007, 02:39 AM
Again to remind...Thom said that there are scouts that said Hamilton was a better prospect than Griffey or A-Rod. These are two guys that were ML ready in their late teens. I am not surprised at all that Hamilton is performing as well as he is given his humble, grounded, and hard-working approach to his game combined with his once-in-a-generation talent. He has a great support system with the Reds with the Narrons. The question is, will Wayne be given credit on RedsZone if Hamilton blooms into a top-notch player for the Reds?

dougdirt
03-08-2007, 02:46 AM
With all due respect Cyclone, I really don't see how you can seriously tell about his plate discipline and "eye" just by listening on the radio.

Well, he has 2 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances and 3 walks. If he had bad plate discipline, I would expect to see something like 6 strikeouts and no walks. Take for example Jerry Gil, who has never seen a pitch he didnt like. 13 at bats, 0 walks and 3 strikeouts. It goes right along with his scouting report.

dougdirt
03-08-2007, 02:53 AM
Again to remind...Thom said that there are scouts that said Hamilton was a better prospect than Griffey or A-Rod. These are two guys that were ML ready in their late teens. I am not surprised at all that Hamilton is performing as well as he is given his humble, grounded, and hard-working approach to his game combined with his once-in-a-generation talent. He has a great support system with the Reds with the Narrons. The question is, will Wayne be given credit on RedsZone if Hamilton blooms into a top-notch player for the Reds?

I have to say that those scouts were just wrong.
Griffey at age 19 - .264, 16 HR and 61 RBI in 455 at bats.
A-rod at age 19 - .312, 21 HR and 84 RBI in 426 at bats.
Hamilton at age 19 - .302, 13 HR and 61 RBI in 391 at bats.

On the surface those numbers are very comparable.
Then I tell you Griffey played that season in Seattle for the Mariners and Arod ended his season with 120 at bats in AAA where he OPSd .950. Hamilton put up those numbers in Single A. Hamilton may have been very highly touted coming out of HS, but Griffey and Arod were an entirely different breed of player coming out of HS in terms of readiness to step up to the big leagues.

Oh, and yes Redszone will give Krivsky all the credit in the world for Hamilton. They surely give him credit for Arroyo, Ross and Phillips. They also are sure to give him crap for bad moves he made as well.

WMR
03-08-2007, 03:08 AM
:owned:


Oh, and yes Redszone will give Krivsky all the credit in the world for Hamilton. They surely give him credit for Arroyo, Ross and Phillips. They also are sure to give him crap for bad moves he made as well.

:owned:

Preach it, Doug!

:notworthy:

Topcat
03-08-2007, 04:37 AM
The kid just is a ball player and There is nobody on Redszone who is not rooting for him. The only downside I can see is he has to be kept on the roster and I truly believe that is going to come at Denofrio's expense.

Hoosier Red
03-08-2007, 08:48 AM
The kid just is a ball player and There is nobody on Redszone who is not rooting for him. The only downside I can see is he has to be kept on the roster and I truly believe that is going to come at Denofrio's expense.

You know that doesn't bother me as much as it did in when camp opened.
You'll get no argument from me that Denorfia is major league ready. I'll buy that he's a better outfielder than Freel.(Offensively and Defensively) but it really doesn't matter. Ryan Freel is the starting outfielder. It's just the way it is.
If keeping Josh Hamilton means the 100-150 at bats go to him instead of Denorfia, I don't think we'll see enough of a difference for it to matter.
When Freel and/or Jr. go on the DL, I think Denorfia should come up and start. But as a 4th or more likely 5th outfielder, I'm perfectly content with Hamilton.

edabbs44
03-08-2007, 09:03 AM
Again to remind...Thom said that there are scouts that said Hamilton was a better prospect than Griffey or A-Rod. These are two guys that were ML ready in their late teens. I am not surprised at all that Hamilton is performing as well as he is given his humble, grounded, and hard-working approach to his game combined with his once-in-a-generation talent. He has a great support system with the Reds with the Narrons. The question is, will Wayne be given credit on RedsZone if Hamilton blooms into a top-notch player for the Reds?

WK will be given credit if he works out. But he will probably be given too much credit.

If Hamilton doesn't work out, there will be a "It didn't cost us much" vibe and no one will care or remember that the move happened. Hamilton will be thrown on the scrap heap with Esteban Yan, Sun-Woo Kim, Joe Mays and the rest of Wayne's shots in the dark. If he works out, he'll be discussed in the same manner as Phillips and Ross.

This was a no-risk move. If it works out, Wayne's a genius. If it doesn't, so what? But it is very tough to build a winner by building a team around no-risk moves.

NJReds
03-08-2007, 10:51 AM
Watching Hamilton last night v. the Yankees, it was the first time I've seen him play. I'm no scout, but I did notice a couple things.

First, he seems so relaxed at the plate and has a smooth swing.
He also doesn't seem to swing and miss at all. He did K looking v. Mariano Rivera, and Rivera got him with a split finger fastball that he's working on in camp to add to his arsenal. In fairness to Josh, it was a nasty pitch that caught him looking.

The first AB he walked v. Pettitte, who was trying to paint the corners but was just off the plate. Showed good discipline. Hopefully he develops.

Sea Ray
03-08-2007, 11:05 AM
Watching Hamilton last night v. the Yankees, it was the first time I've seen him play. I'm no scout, but I did notice a couple things.

First, he seems so relaxed at the plate and has a smooth swing.
He also doesn't seem to swing and miss at all. He did K looking v. Mariano Rivera, and Rivera got him with a split finger fastball that he's working on in camp to add to his arsenal. In fairness to Josh, it was a nasty pitch that caught him looking.

The first AB he walked v. Pettitte, who was trying to paint the corners but was just off the plate. Showed good discipline. Hopefully he develops.


I agree. What's most impressive is the fact he hasn't struck out a lot. You can have great plate discipline but still strike out 200 times as us Reds fans well know. If he can walk more than he strikes out, that'd be huge.

But I agree it's early. What we've seen so far is that he's a talent worth taking a chance on and for that reason, yes, he's made the roster.

Cooper
03-08-2007, 11:18 AM
I was at the game last night also. I thought against the lefty side armer he would bail a little bit, but he didn't --stayed on the ball and through the zone.

What comes through most is that he doesn't seem flustered about anything. And i know that's hard to quantify, but he just seems relaxed at the plate. Whereas you see a guy like Chris Dickerson and you can really see the difference. Poor Chris looks like a wide receiver in football...very fast. Runs smooth, throws well...but at the plate....he was bailing out against righthanders. Totally overmatched and overwhelmed. I actually felt sorry for him.

There is a world of difference between the two --when you see these extremes: it highlights Hamilton's ability.

ramp101
03-08-2007, 11:45 AM
I think the Reds and Devil Rays should come to some kind of agreement to allow Josh to get 500 at bats in AAA this year. It's not fair to his development to sit on the bench for most of the year. 100-150 at bats is going to do nothing to help him.

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 12:31 PM
I think the Reds and Devil Rays should come to some kind of agreement to allow Josh to get 500 at bats in AAA this year. It's not fair to his development to sit on the bench for most of the year. 100-150 at bats is going to do nothing to help him.

Don't be surprised if Griffey somehow gives his CF blessing to Josh Hamilton, as the heir apparent.

You really could be seeing a "changing of the guard", so to speak, in the Queen City. With Griffey coming to a close in his Reds career, and most likely ending up with an AL team who has a ST facility in FL, preferably close to Orlando, don't be surprised if Hamilton really is our CF of the future.

The ideal OF with the personnel on our roster would and should be Dunn -- Denorfia -- Hamilton, which would maximize not only defense, but offense included. I would venture a guess that in 2007 if Hamilton and Griffey had the same PAs, you'd see similar numbers between them, and then if Denorfia and Freel had the same PAs in 2007, you'd see probably similar numbers to them as well, but the overall edge would go to Denorfia b/c of his defense being much much better than anything Ryan Freel can bring to the table.

Unfortunately down the road, if you throw Jay Bruce into the mix, that leaves an interesting scenario with basically Denorfia and Votto, as Dunn and Hamilton will remain constants. Dunn would either replace Votto at 1B, and we'd have an OF of Bruce -- Denorfia -- Hamilton, or Dunn would remain in LF, and we'd have Dunn -- Hamilton -- Bruce, with Votto at 1B. Having Denorfia as a 4th OF would be a luxury, but the kid is far too talented to be a 4th OF. If Brian Anderson can get a starting CF job, then Chris Denorfia should as well.

Looking at 2008 and beyond, it should be a great time to be a Reds fan. Hopefully we can get some pitching to go with that OF.

WMR
03-08-2007, 12:45 PM
I would venture a guess that in 2007 if Hamilton and Griffey had the same PAs, you'd see similar numbers between them,

I think it's way premature to predict Hamilton having the kind of season that you're projecting.

Caveat Emperor
03-08-2007, 01:20 PM
I think the Reds and Devil Rays should come to some kind of agreement to allow Josh to get 500 at bats in AAA this year. It's not fair to his development to sit on the bench for most of the year. 100-150 at bats is going to do nothing to help him.

I imagine that they would have great incentive to do some sort of deal -- it is becoming more likely every day that the Reds are willing to hang onto him as a project in the majors for a year and the Rays would get nothing if that happens.

By doing a deal, they can at least extract a player from the Reds to lessen the sting (or complete the fleecing, if Hamilton busts out again). Once it sinks in that Hamilton isn't coming back under any circumstances, they'll be able to work something out.

ramp101
03-08-2007, 01:49 PM
can Josh play CF anymore? I know he had some minor knee surgery, and the fact he has gotten older certainly hasn't helped.

halcyon
03-08-2007, 02:06 PM
can Josh play CF anymore? I know he had some minor knee surgery, and the fact he has gotten older certainly hasn't helped.

He's just 25. I think he's just going to be entering his athletic prime in a few years. I doubt he's lost a step yet.

Redsland
03-08-2007, 02:07 PM
Older? He's 12 years younger than our incumbent center fielder.

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 02:21 PM
I think it's way premature to predict Hamilton having the kind of season that you're projecting.

I'm not predicting anything great for Hamilton, but rather predicting something rather pedestrian for Griffey.

dougdirt
03-08-2007, 02:38 PM
I'm not predicting anything great for Hamilton, but rather predicting something rather pedestrian for Griffey.

Griffey rebounds from last year. .275/.355/.500. I am calling that one.

RedEye
03-08-2007, 02:41 PM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nEStHjYRPys I recorded his last 3 AB's of the night. I didn't think to get his first one, which was a walk, if anyone cares to take a look.

Cyclone, HumnHilghtFreel, and others have combined to make this a really rewarding read. I've learned more about Josh Hamilton than I ever knew before. This is what RedsZone is all about... I love threads like this! Thanks, everyone!

MartyFan
03-08-2007, 03:03 PM
Don't be surprised if Griffey somehow gives his CF blessing to Josh Hamilton, as the heir apparent.

You really could be seeing a "changing of the guard", so to speak, in the Queen City. With Griffey coming to a close in his Reds career, and most likely ending up with an AL team who has a ST facility in FL, preferably close to Orlando, don't be surprised if Hamilton really is our CF of the future.

The ideal OF with the personnel on our roster would and should be Dunn -- Denorfia -- Hamilton, which would maximize not only defense, but offense included. I would venture a guess that in 2007 if Hamilton and Griffey had the same PAs, you'd see similar numbers between them, and then if Denorfia and Freel had the same PAs in 2007, you'd see probably similar numbers to them as well, but the overall edge would go to Denorfia b/c of his defense being much much better than anything Ryan Freel can bring to the table.

Unfortunately down the road, if you throw Jay Bruce into the mix, that leaves an interesting scenario with basically Denorfia and Votto, as Dunn and Hamilton will remain constants. Dunn would either replace Votto at 1B, and we'd have an OF of Bruce -- Denorfia -- Hamilton, or Dunn would remain in LF, and we'd have Dunn -- Hamilton -- Bruce, with Votto at 1B. Having Denorfia as a 4th OF would be a luxury, but the kid is far too talented to be a 4th OF. If Brian Anderson can get a starting CF job, then Chris Denorfia should as well.

Looking at 2008 and beyond, it should be a great time to be a Reds fan. Hopefully we can get some pitching to go with that OF.

I've thought the same thing. In fact, I've wondered if Junior wouldn't be moved to an AL team to have an OF of Dunn, Hamilton and Deno...I know it is early but this guy is a SPECIAL talent.

Maybe moving Junior is a but I can bet he goes to RF this year with Hamilton in Center.

I don't think we have to worry about his development being stunted by being on the ML roster, he is going to play.

I am interested to see what happens with Dunn. If he can "turn it around" meaning improve his D and cut down on strikes he will stay if not...He doesn't fit the mold of what Specail K is putting together here and he will be moved.

That could mean an OF of Bruce, Deno and Hamilton.

Cyclone792
03-08-2007, 04:53 PM
For those that missed today's game thread (many thanks to membengal for some fine pbp commentary and detailed reports), Hamilton once again carried his impressive plate approach into this afternoon's game.

He went 1-2 with a triple and a walk in three total plate appearances. His triple was off the right field wall on a 2-2 count, and he walked on a 3-1 count. He made his only out of the day by striking out on a 2-2 count. Hamilton also saw at least five pitches during each plate appearance (possibly more if he had any foul balls during two-strike counts), and saw at least 15 total pitches over the course of his three plate appearances.

We have to take it one day at a time with Hamilton, but today's performance didn't look too bad at all.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 05:17 PM
All I can say ... it's spring training. Which whatever happens here means nothing for a guy like Hamilton because it doesn't matter how well does in FLorida. Once the flag drops on April he will have to prove he can do it then.

I'm rooting for the guy but I will get hopeful when I see some success in April and beyond, I am not going to get excited about what is happening in March.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 05:20 PM
All I can say ... it's spring training. Which whatever happens here means nothing for a guy like Hamilton because it doesn't matter how well does in FLorida. Once the flag drops on April he will have to prove he can do it then.

I'm rooting for the guy but I will get hopeful when I see some success in April and beyond, I am not going to get excited about what is happening in March.

Obviously, the ST games mean nothing, but he's showing that he has the ability and more importantly, the eye and patience to succeed at the major league level. That's all I think this thread is about.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 05:27 PM
Obviously, the ST games mean nothing, but he's showing that he has the ability and more importantly, the eye and patience to succeed at the major league level. That's all I think this thread is about.he's showing that he has the eye and patience to succeed at the spring training level. He showing he has at least a modicum of talent but over the years there have been a lot of wonderful March performances go up in smoke in April and May. And the Reds have to keep in on the major league roster all year long.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 05:35 PM
he's showing that he has the eye and patience to succeed at the spring training level. He showing he has at least a modicum of talent but over the years there have been a lot of wonderful March performances go up in smoke in April and May. And the Reds have to keep in on the major league roster all year long.

I tend to think that a quality such as patience and plate discipline is something that you don't have to worry about translating over. Maybe in the early parts of the season he'll get antsy and want to make a big impact and overcompensate, but for the most part I think it's a given that it will translate over.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 05:38 PM
I tend to think that a quality such as patience and plate discipline is something that you don't have to worry about translating over. Maybe in the early parts of the season he'll get antsy and want to make a big impact and overcompensate, but for the most part I think it's a given that it will translate over.maybe so but he has no track record whatsoever, just great athletic talent. I think the odds of him succeeding without getting around 1000 more minor league ABs are incredibly long.

He has no track record or even a good comparable to point to.

Chip R
03-08-2007, 05:41 PM
I tend to think that a quality such as patience and plate discipline is something that you don't have to worry about translating over. Maybe in the early parts of the season he'll get antsy and want to make a big impact and overcompensate, but for the most part I think it's a given that it will translate over.


Exactly. It would be one thing if he were hitting the ball all over the place and little else. When the boys start throwing the curve balls, the batting average could go down in a big hurry. But, more often than not, once the boys start throwing the curves he's not going to start swinging at everything in the same Zip code. He may get caught looking a few more times than before but he's also going to make the pitcher(s) throw a lot of pitches and possibly one too many.

KronoRed
03-08-2007, 05:43 PM
Griffey rebounds from last year. .275/.355/.500. I am calling that one.

I just hope he goes back to being patient at the plate

flyer85
03-08-2007, 05:50 PM
what little track record he has says he isn't a guy that walks that much (73BB in 1000+ABs) and a 3/1 K/BB ratio. Nothing there to suggest great plate discipline and I fail to see how he could have acquired it in 4 years of not playing.

I'm not wanting to rain on the Hamilton parade but I think expectations are way out of line based on a week of ST ABs. The best thing probably for his career and his life would be to spend the next couple of years in the minors.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 05:52 PM
He showing he has at least a modicum of talent

He's showing that the boatload of talent he had as a younger player is still there. We'll see how it plays out, but it is VERY encouraging to see all that he's been able to do and to hear what others are saying about him. This player is by no means comparable to recent spring sensations like Rob Stratton and Brian Buchanan -- I think that's safe to say.

RANDY IN INDY
03-08-2007, 05:55 PM
He's showing that the boatload of talent he had as a younger player is still there. We'll see how it plays out, but it is VERY encouraging to see all that he's been able to do and to hear what others are saying about him. This player is by no means comparable to recent spring sensations like Rob Stratton and Brian Buchanan -- I think that's safe to say.

The skillset is there, but this is Major League Baseball, and you have to be at your best. Hamilton has a long way to go. I hope he can cut it.

westofyou
03-08-2007, 05:57 PM
He's showing that the boatload of talent he had as a younger player is still there. We'll see how it plays out, but it is VERY encouraging to see all that he's been able to do and to hear what others are saying about him. This player is by no means comparable to recent spring sensations like Rob Stratton and Brian Buchanan -- I think that's safe to say.

Ron LeFlore picked the game up at a late age, sometimes talent knows enough to not vanish early, even despite its dormant stage in years that are keen to developing a ballplayer.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 05:57 PM
I just can't see how Hamilton can somehow go from 4 years of not playing to major league success and acquire good plate discipline when what track record he has in the minors show little evidence of it. You simply don't get better by not playing. If one believes it is possible then Jay Bruce ought to be here competing for a spot because his age 19 season in Low A ball was better than Hamiltons and he hasn't been not playing for 4 years.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:01 PM
He has no track record or even a good comparable to point to.

He put up some real good numbers when he was young and healthy. That's a track record of sorts. It's true that he has no comparable, and that's what should make hardliners on both sides of the debate wary.

Me, I think he's got a good chance to make it and be good, perhaps very good. I liked how he sounded in his press conference, I like what Narron and players have said about him, and I like the performance so far. I believe talent like his stands out, and if he stays healthy and clean (both ifs to be respected, given his history), it'll be a lot of fun to watch him play.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 06:02 PM
Ron LeFlore picked the game up at a late age... and was never a very prodcutive hitter. He came to the game late but didn't take a 4 year hiatus. His game was built on one quality that translates, speed. He OPSed over 800 exactly once in his career and when the wheels disappeared he was gone.

westofyou
03-08-2007, 06:04 PM
... and was never a very prodcutive hitter. He came to the game late but didn't take a 4 year hiatus. His game was built on one quality that translates, speed. He OPSed over 800 exactly once in his career and when the wheels disappeared he was gone.

Well .800 is a lofty benchmark in that era, but here's his against the league numbers... he excelled because he had talent, like Hamilton, that translates well in athletic positions.


RON LEFLORE

YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
1974 Tigers 26 0 7 0 -2 -1 -3 -1.29 -16 -11 21 18 -6 .002 -.049 -.021 -.070
1975 Tigers 27 2 -3 1 -9 2 -4 -0.79 -28 -23 60 17 -13 .000 -.032 -.026 -.058
1976 Tigers 28 32 33 41 3 4 -5 -0.97 -17 3 40 45 -13 .060 .049 .056 .105
1977 Tigers 29 50 20 52 3 5 0 -0.15 -18 -20 34 28 -12 .059 .070 .033 .103
1978 Tigers 30 36 48 34 3 -1 -2 -0.40 -11 5 20 56 -9 .036 .021 .035 .055
1979 Tigers 31 27 31 25 -4 6 -6 -1.12 -17 -3 19 67 -8 .030 .007 .020 .027
1980 Expos 32 -5 30 -6 -2 7 -6 -1.22 -21 13 28 81 -12 -.010 -.025 .008 -.017
1981 White Sox 33 -10 4 -6 -4 2 -7 -2.09 -15 -4 23 30 -7 -.010 -.073 -.016 -.089
1982 White Sox 34 8 15 10 0 2 -5 -1.47 -15 -9 45 22 -11 .023 -.010 .003 -.008
TOTALS 141 185 151 -13 26 -38 -0.93 -158 -49 290 364 -91 .025 .005 .015 .020

flyer85
03-08-2007, 06:04 PM
He put up some real good numbers when he was young and healthy. He put up good numbers but not great ones. In addition, plate discipline wasn't one of those skills he showed.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:07 PM
Me, I think he's got a good chance to make it and be good, perhaps very good.

Let me qualify that a bit -- I doubt he does particularly well in 07. For all I know the Reds will have him back in the minors. In the majors he'll be facing the best pitching he's ever seen, he won't be used to the grind and he may not like the spotlight. But I think he can get by without embarrassing himself at the plate and learn from it. By 08 I'd say his talent could be showing a steady pulse out there.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 06:09 PM
He excelled because he had talent, like Hamilton, that translates well in athletic positions.
He excelled because he had talent and not just good speed but incredible speed. He's likely to have been one of the fastest players to EVER play the game. I honestly think Hamilton would likely have a better chance of having success in the majors as a pitcher. Hitting MLB quality pitching is so incredibly hard that it generally takes years of training the eyes and reflexes and honing skills to have a chance of success.

flyer85
03-08-2007, 06:10 PM
For all I know the Reds will have him back in the minors. for that to happen He'd have to 1)pass through waivers 2)be traded to the Reds by the Eggs. If he shows much of anything I don't see why the Rays wouldn't want him back.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:11 PM
In addition, plate discipline wasn't one of those skills he showed.

True, although he wasn't Wily Mo awful in that regard. Narron's brother has been quoted as saying Hamilton's patience and relaxed approach at the plate has been the most pleasant of all the surprises Hamilton has shown. Even if his track record on that front isn't impressive, I'd say positive early showings are encouraging -- and perhaps more predictive of how things will go than numbers he put up years ago.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:13 PM
for that to happen He'd have to 1)pass through waivers 2)be traded to the Reds by the Eggs. If he shows much of anything I don't see why the Rays wouldn't want him back.

If they work a trade with the Rays -- still a possibility, I think -- he won't be exposed to waivers.

Caveat Emperor
03-08-2007, 06:13 PM
I'm not wanting to rain on the Hamilton parade but I think expectations are way out of line based on a week of ST ABs. The best thing probably for his career and his life would be to spend the next couple of years in the minors.

The major/minor league thing is an interesting debate -- where is he most likely to be more closely supervised? I genuinely don't know where is "better" for him given his problems; perhaps closer to Johnny Narron and Jerry Narron, who've been his shadows recently, is the best place for him. I'd like to see Johnny Narron assigned to him wherever he gets sent.

As to raining on the Hamilton parade, he's a spring training sidebar at this point. Anyone who expects him to be a significant contributor or starter are almost certainly carrying unrealistic expectations. However, I don't see how you can be anything other than encouraged that the Reds have basically pilfered a real talent for absolutely nothing from the Devil Rays. What happens to that talent remains to be seen, but it is difficult to deny that the talent is there for the Reds to harnass if they play this correctly and Hamilton can keep himself clean and moving forward. Combine that with a truly compelling human interest story, and you have to forgive fans for being a little excited.

WMR
03-08-2007, 06:13 PM
True, although he wasn't Wily Mo awful in that regard.

"Hey! No drag Wily Mo into this!!" - :pena:

;)

westofyou
03-08-2007, 06:17 PM
If they work a trade with the Rays -- still a possibility, I think -- he won't be exposed to waivers.

Dec 7, 2006: Chicago Cubs traded Josh Hamilton to the Cincinnati Reds for cash considerations.

Doesn't that make the Cubs the ones who would have to be offered him?

Then they either carry him or offer him to TB.

Red Leader
03-08-2007, 06:21 PM
Dec 7, 2006: Chicago Cubs traded Josh Hamilton to the Cincinnati Reds for cash considerations.

Doesn't that make the Cubs the ones who would have to be offered him?

Then they either carry him or offer him to TB.

I thought when the Reds gave the Cubs something in return for Hamilton's rights, in this case money, it took them out of the equation.

I thought that's how it worked but as usual, I could be wayyy off on that.

Not sure how Rule V trades are worked out.

I think TB wouldn't accept a trade for Hamilton at this point. They'd want him back. And even if they did accept a trade, if the Reds had to expose Hamilton to waivers, there ain't no way that he'd clear.

Cooper
03-08-2007, 06:22 PM
I was trying to think of comparables...what about guys who played MLB during WW2. There had to have been a fair amount of players who went away at a young age and came back 4 years later. And yet, their skillset either remained the same or improved. WOY, if anyone can find someone from the era that fits -it's you.

LeFlore is a good comp. They don't have the exact same skill set, but LeFlore's success makes it seem possible to make the jump.

p.s. Ted Williams comes to mind--i know all together he missed 5 or 6 years to service time and seemed to have not too much of an adjustment.

membengal
03-08-2007, 06:23 PM
What you would need is a young guy who really hadn't established himself above low minor ball who went away for four years, came back, and then see what happened. Williams was established when he went away, I believe.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:24 PM
Dec 7, 2006: Chicago Cubs traded Josh Hamilton to the Cincinnati Reds for cash considerations.

Doesn't that make the Cubs the ones who would have to be offered him?

Then they either carry him or offer him to TB.

NO -- I think that in the trade the Cubs must have had to give up all rights to Hamilton. My understanding is that for some reason Hamilton has enough service time (or enough something) that he has the right to elect free agency rather than be returned to the Rays, if the Reds decide to relinquish his rights. However, if the Reds acquire his rights (via trade) from TB, he does not have that right.

Red Leader
03-08-2007, 06:26 PM
Here's what I got:


A player drafted onto a Major League roster in the Rule 5 draft must remain in the majors (on the 25-man active roster or the DL) for all of the subsequent season, or the drafting club must attempt to return him to his original club. However, since a returned Rule 5 player must first be placed on outright waivers, a third club could claim the player off waivers. But of course, that club would then also have to keep him in the majors all season, or offer him back to his original club.

Occasionally, the drafting club will work out a trade with the player's original team, allowing the drafting club to retain the player but send him to the minors

Having read that, that means that the Reds would have to expose Hamilton to waivers first (as I said, he won't clear waivers, IMO). If he miraculously made it through waivers, then a deal with TB could be worked out (they won't accept unless we give them something like Cueto, or more, IMO).

In other words, he better stay on the 25 man or on the DL all season if we want to keep him in Cincy.

lollipopcurve
03-08-2007, 06:29 PM
I was trying to think of comparables...what about guys who played MLB during WW2. There had to have been a fair amount of players who went away at a young age and came back 4 years later. And yet, their skillset either remained the same or improved. WOY, if anyone can find someone from the era that fits -it's you.

I mentioned this in another thread because I saw the comparison made somewhere. It said that the hiatus didn't effect players much -- certainly not guys like Williams. It's true that these were established major leaguers and Hamilton isn't. But the similarity is that Hamilton has a lot -- a lot -- of talent. He just may be a case where his talent -- plus his having gained physical and mental maturity -- has landed him in a place where he can compete with the best, right now.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 06:29 PM
Here's what I got:



Having read that, that means that the Reds would have to expose Hamilton to waivers first (as I said, he won't clear waivers, IMO). If he miraculously made it through waivers, then a deal with TB could be worked out (they won't accept unless we give them something like Cueto, or more, IMO).

In other words, he better stay on the 25 man or on the DL all season if we want to keep him in Cincy.

Could we get his rights as the PTBNL from the Rays in the Brendan Harris trade?

Red Leader
03-08-2007, 06:30 PM
Could we get his rights as the PTBNL from the Rays in the Brendan Harris trade?

Well, we could. But the Rays aren't that stupid. They're not going to give us Josh Hamilton for Brendan Harris.

Cooper
03-08-2007, 06:31 PM
I'm quite aware of what a good comp. would be --i'm just not sure there is a perfect one because we are on new ground here. Now if we could find a guy who got hurt for 2 of those four years and then failed drug tests and got suspended 2 years--then we'd have something.

We probably have to settle for some kind of combination of comps to see what is there. That's why i think the LeFlore comp is pretty dang good for an odd case like this. To infer it's not perfect is being a little picky imo. There's no way you're gonna find a bunch of perfect (1000) comps for a guy like this.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 06:32 PM
Well, we could. But the Rays aren't that stupid. They're not going to give us Josh Hamilton for Brendan Harris.

Yeah I wouldn't think that they'd let us off the hook that easily, but I thought that it COULD be an option

membengal
03-08-2007, 06:33 PM
I'm quite aware of what a good comp. would be --i'm just not sure there is a perfect one because we are on new ground here. Now if we could find a guy who got hurt for 2 of those four years and then failed drug tests and got suspended 2 years--then we'd have something.

We probably have to settle for some kind of combination of comps to see what is there. That's why i think the LeFlore comp is pretty dang good for an odd case like this. To infer it's not perfect is being a little picky imo. There's no way you're gonna find a bunch of perfect (1000) comps for a guy like this.

Cooper, I should have been clearer. I like the idea of WWII as being a reference point for a comp. Just not Williams. But there had to be kids in the 19-21 range with low minor experience who did their duty for four years who came back and could have played again. I just wonder if any of them did. IF they did, that would interest me. Just don't know of any, or how to find any.

membengal
03-08-2007, 06:36 PM
btw, flyer, I hear you, loud and clear. It's just that, if I had been plotting out what would be a spring debut for Hamilton that would grab every bit of my attention, the fact that he has reached base at least once in each game he has played would have been somewhere at the top. Even last night, worked a walk off of the lefty Petitte in a tough spot. Whether the batting eye has been there or not before now, it, for at least one week, is there now. Who knows why. But so far, it is. And that is really heartening...

westofyou
03-08-2007, 06:49 PM
I was trying to think of comparables...what about guys who played MLB during WW2. There had to have been a fair amount of players who went away at a young age and came back 4 years later. And yet, their skillset either remained the same or improved. WOY, if anyone can find someone from the era that fits -it's you.

LeFlore is a good comp. They don't have the exact same skill set, but LeFlore's success makes it seem possible to make the jump.

p.s. Ted Williams comes to mind--i know all together he missed 5 or 6 years to service time and seemed to have not too much of an adjustment.

Here's another, Al Dark. Never played in the minors played his first year in the majors at age 24.


According to baseball writer Bill James, he may have lost a Hall of Fame career due to his debut being delayed by his military service during World War II.

BRM
03-08-2007, 06:53 PM
Well, we could. But the Rays aren't that stupid. They're not going to give us Josh Hamilton for Brendan Harris.

The Reds are the ones with the leverage for now. If the Reds make it clear there is no way they are sending him back, the Rays would be smart to work out some sort of trade. Their options would be 1) lose Hamilton and get nothing or 2) lose Hamilton and get something in return. Brendan Harris probably isn't enough, I agree. He'd certainly be a start though.

membengal
03-08-2007, 06:55 PM
See, I should have bet money on WOY finding one.

Off to look at Al Dark's page on baseball-reference.com now...

dabvu2498
03-08-2007, 06:56 PM
I know he was a pitcher, but didn't Reds fan favorite Woody Fryman get a late start as well?

oneupper
03-08-2007, 06:56 PM
Willy Mays had about 600 ML ABs with not so great numbers (OPS .808) (yes he was ROY in '51) before shipping off two years to Korea.

Came back in '54 to be MVP, (age 24) (OPS 1.078).

RedEye
03-08-2007, 06:58 PM
All I can say ... it's spring training. Which whatever happens here means nothing for a guy like Hamilton because it doesn't matter how well does in FLorida. Once the flag drops on April he will have to prove he can do it then.

I'm rooting for the guy but I will get hopeful when I see some success in April and beyond, I am not going to get excited about what is happening in March.

Of course it's spring training... but Hamilton's performance most definitely does make a difference this March because he needs to shine in order to make the team's 25-man. Does his performance now project to success during the regular season? Not clear. Does his performance now project him to have more chances for success in the regular season? Absolutely.

PuffyPig
03-08-2007, 07:11 PM
I'd give Wayne all the credit in the world if Hamilton works out.

This is not a case of Hamilton falling into our laps. Wayne went out and convinced the Cubs (of all teams) to help us get him. Without that, we may have had no shot at him. Certainly the Cubs felt he had little to no chance to succeed.

Can you imagine what the Cubs fans will say if he does succeed?

westofyou
03-08-2007, 07:11 PM
I know he was a pitcher, but didn't Reds fan favorite Woody Fryman get a late start as well?

Age 26, was pitching in a local league when he signed with the Pirates.

PuffyPig
03-08-2007, 07:13 PM
The Reds are the ones with the leverage for now. If the Reds make it clear there is no way they are sending him back, the Rays would be smart to work out some sort of trade. Their options would be 1) lose Hamilton and get nothing or 2) lose Hamilton and get something in return. Brendan Harris probably isn't enough, I agree. He'd certainly be a start though.

Except if the Reds appraoch the DRays, it's obvious that it's because they want to send him to the minors. It would probably be better for TB to play hardball all the way. Unless they can get a prospect they really like.

westofyou
03-08-2007, 07:16 PM
Al Rosen, 1942 Rookie Ball, 43-45 in the service, back to rookie ball n 46. Eddie Robinsons 43-45 In the service, same with Pee wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Bill Rigney, Pete Reiser, Johnny Mize and Johnny Pesky.

Granted some played ball, others did not.

dabvu2498
03-08-2007, 07:17 PM
Al Rosen, 1942 Rookie Ball, 43-45 in the service, back to rookie ball n 46. Eddie Robinsons 43-45 In the service, same with Pee wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Bill Rigney, Pete Reiser, Johnny Mize and Johnny Pesky.

Granted some played ball, others did not.

By "some played ball" you mean some played for Armed Services teams?

BRM
03-08-2007, 07:18 PM
Except if the Reds appraoch the DRays, it's obvious that it's because they want to send him to the minors. It would probably be better for TB to play hardball all the way. Unless they can get a prospect they really like.

If Tampa plays hardball, my guess is they'll get nothing. There best bet would be to wait until late March or April and see what the Reds plans are. If it appears Cincy is going to carry him on the 25 man, Tampa should engage. Hamilton's spring performance will go a long way in that as well. If he's hitting under the Mendoza line at the end of spring, the Reds would lose a little leverage.

oneupper
03-08-2007, 07:19 PM
I know nothing about baseball cards, but...would it make sense to buy up some of those '99 or '00 cards of this kid?

Patrick Bateman
03-08-2007, 07:28 PM
I know nothing about baseball cards, but...would it make sense to buy up some of those '99 or '00 cards of this kid?

Probably. If he starts doing well, his rookie card would be very very popular.

RFS62
03-08-2007, 09:26 PM
Nobody is going to know what he's got until he goes through the league a couple of times and pitchers start trying different things that he has to adjust to.

That's the big problem with his lack of experience and plate appearances. Only the most elite talents can be productive hitters with as little playing time as he's had.

But when he's been healthy, throughout his career, he's been elite. The players he's been compared to are hall of famers.

Very nice thread, Cyclone. I imagine we'll be disecting every aspect of his game this spring.

paulrichjr
03-08-2007, 09:58 PM
I'd give Wayne all the credit in the world if Hamilton works out.

This is not a case of Hamilton falling into our laps. Wayne went out and convinced the Cubs (of all teams) to help us get him. Without that, we may have had no shot at him. Certainly the Cubs felt he had little to no chance to succeed.

Can you imagine what the Cubs fans will say if he does succeed?


Actually the Cubbies had no idea who the Reds were going to want until the very last few minutes. The deal was made and then the player that the Reds wanted was given to them a few moments before the pick was chosen.

The quote I read was that the guy that was handed the envelope with Hamilton's name in it said something like "brilliant" when he read the name.

DoogMinAmo
03-09-2007, 12:28 AM
Actually the Cubbies had no idea who the Reds were going to want until the very last few minutes. The deal was made and then the player that the Reds wanted was given to them a few moments before the pick was chosen.

The quote I read was that the guy that was handed the envelope with Hamilton's name in it said something like "brilliant" when he read the name.

I still am baffled by what so many execs and the media find to be brilliant. Every team saw he was available, and all teams would have had the opportunity to grab him. Why was what Wayne did so unusual? I find it hard to believe an entire league could just forget about a former #1 pick.

Cyclone792
03-09-2007, 12:50 AM
By "some played ball" you mean some played for Armed Services teams?

Quite a few players played for Armed Service teams during the war. Some actually served and saw combat, such as Ted Williams and Bob Feller, while others barnstormed against other teams usually comprised of troops.

My grandfather served stateside in WWII, and he played on various baseball teams in the service. One of the teams he played against was the San Antonio Aviation Cadet Center team, and that team had a few major leaguers, including Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/slaugen01.shtml) and a young Cardinals southpaw named Howie Pollet (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/polleho01.shtml). My grandfather said Slaughter played in the same game he played in, and he also got a chance to bat against Pollet. He said he was somehow able to foul a pitch off from Pollet, but he ultimately struck out. According to him, there weren't many other hitters on his service team that had much success against Pollet either. A few foul balls, maybe a dribbler if a hitter got lucky, but mostly just one strikeout after another.

The WWII comps are interesting in regards to Hamilton because they will provide examples of players who had long layoffs due to the war, but were still able to come back and play. Obviously most established major league stars, such as Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Bob Feller, Hank Greenberg, etc. were able to pick up right where they left off. As others have mentioned in this thread, more appropriate comps for Hamilton would be guys who played in the minors before the war, served for a few years, and then got sent directly to the majors after the war. Those players are lesser known, and it'd take some research to come up with a comprehensive list. I'm absolutely certain they do exist, however.

Of course, even with several similar comps to Hamilton available from the WWII era, that won't answer the question of "will Hamilton make it back?" However, it does answer the question of "can Hamilton make it back?" and he obviously does have some chance, just as various players taking time off for WWII had a chance to make it back. After WWII, some players succeeded, and others failed; it was probably a mixed bag of both. Johnny Beazley (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beazljo01.shtml) was a solid young pitcher who put up a great season in 1942. He served on an Army Services team, and he injured himself pitching in the service. It's also documented that Beazley's commanding officer ordered him to pitch through the pain, and when Beazley attempted his comeback to the majors, he had little left.

For Josh Hamilton, prior to spring training I thought his odds were long, but I believe the Reds have handled him well thus far, and I really like what I've seen from Hamilton's plate approach. Stuff like that will improve Hamilton's chances of sticking a little bit more, IMO.

Still, it's great to see some of the little baby steps currently being taken that need to be taken in order for Hamilton to be successful. He'll continue to be tested, especially when teams and pitchers are able to arm themselves with more scouting reports and data on him. His ability to continue progressing, continue to take baby steps, and make the necessary adjustments himself will go a long way toward what we see in the coming months and into future years.

I will say this ... given what we've seen with Hamilton's defensive abilities and the positive steps he's taken so far at the plate with his early plate approach, I have no qualms with the Reds sticking him on their active roster and setting aside 200 plate appearances for him in 2007. At the very least, he'll help the team in late inning situations defensively and on the bases with his speed, and it allows the Reds a bit more time to monitor his development at the plate.

MartyFan
03-09-2007, 02:02 AM
Unlike Wily Mo I don't think Hamilton will have to occupy a spot on the 25 man roster as a charity case. I think he will contribute so I don't think the Reds need to worry about working any sort of deal out with Tampa Bay.

I think if the Reds work any such deal out it will be for a nominal talent so the D-Rays can say at least they got something but it will not be a player anywhere near Cueto or anyone else like him...Reds have the upper hand in this deal and the Rays are "THAT STUPID" because they left the guy open for the Rule 5 in the first place...and the CUBS are that stupid too because they grabbed the guy and then shipped him to us!

dougdirt
03-09-2007, 02:14 AM
I know nothing about baseball cards, but...would it make sense to buy up some of those '99 or '00 cards of this kid?

They have tripled in price since late February. I would say you missed the boat to make the money on his stuff.

dougdirt
03-09-2007, 02:16 AM
I think if the Reds work any such deal out it will be for a nominal talent so the D-Rays can say at least they got something but it will not be a player anywhere near Cueto or anyone else like him...Reds have the upper hand in this deal and the Rays are "THAT STUPID" because they left the guy open for the Rule 5 in the first place...and the CUBS are that stupid too because they grabbed the guy and then shipped him to us!

I am pretty sure that the Cubs agreed to draft a player for us for the money we paid them. Only after they agreed do we tell them who the player is.

mth123
03-09-2007, 07:06 AM
If Tampa plays hardball, my guess is they'll get nothing. There best bet would be to wait until late March or April and see what the Reds plans are. If it appears Cincy is going to carry him on the 25 man, Tampa should engage. Hamilton's spring performance will go a long way in that as well. If he's hitting under the Mendoza line at the end of spring, the Reds would lose a little leverage.

BRM I think you have this figured out.

The Reds have all the leverage. The Reds are the team with Hamilton's rights now and only the Reds can relinquish those rights by the action that the Reds take.

This is all about negotiating properly. I don't think the Reds have to give TB much to get full rights because TB kows that Hamilton will never be their property again.

lollipopcurve
03-09-2007, 09:37 AM
I have no qualms with the Reds sticking him on their active roster and setting aside 200 plate appearances for him in 2007. At the very least, he'll help the team in late inning situations defensively and on the bases with his speed, and it allows the Reds a bit more time to monitor his development at the plate.

I said the same thing the day he was drafted...


I could see a job on the bench, spot starts (maybe 200 ABs), winter ball and try again next year. You have to remember that based on the talent he had as a kid, he could survive against lesser pitching and be solid in the OF and on the basepaths.

TRF
03-09-2007, 10:47 AM
Josh Hamilton, while similar to the guys woy pointed out is still unique. Here is a guy that due to a medical condition (yes, drug abuse/addiction is a medical condition) lost 4 years of development. The guys in the service in WW II and Korea at least stayed in shape. Josh dropped close to 60 lbs, and ravaged his body. The long term effects are still unknown, and a relapse is always a possibility.

Josh is a feel good story. And I am more than a little hopeful. I believe he has the talent to play at the major league level, but baseball is unlike any other sport. High School kids, until the recent rule change, could walk into the NBA and be a dominant starter ala LeBron, Kobe etc. In certain positions juniors in college can walk into the NFL and do the same. But this is much more rare for MLB. Oh sure it happens, but the learning curve of a team sport that relies so much on individual performances is often too much for young players. Learning the game plus learning to accept the failures that come with it require a maturation process. I certainly hope Josh's life experience has helped him with that. After viewing his AB against Rivera, I see that it did not help him recognize a split fingered fastball.

In the next few weeks, the pitching is going to get better. Splitters, sliders, knee buckling curves. How he handles failure might be a better indicator of if he is ready to play at this level.

I'm hoping he handles it with maturity.

flyer85
03-09-2007, 11:48 AM
I don't think the Reds have to give TB much to get full rights because TB kows that Hamilton will never be their property again.Hamilton would have to be passed through waivers before the Reds could work out a trade and send him down.

BRM
03-09-2007, 12:33 PM
Hamilton would have to be passed through waivers before the Reds could work out a trade and send him down.

Really? I didn't know that part. That certainly changes things. It looks like Hamilton will be on the active roster all year then. I'll be stunned if he's offered back to Tampa. No reason to work any trade with the Rays then if he has to stay in the bigs either way.

For some reason I thought Cincy could assign him to Louisville if a trade were worked out. Well, no surprise in the fact I was wrong again. :)

westofyou
03-09-2007, 12:36 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/reds/notes.htm



INSIDE PITCH

The feel-good story of the spring for the Reds got into high gear during the team's first exhibition game. Outfielder Josh Hamilton had two hits, including what he said was the longest home run he had ever hit — a blast to straightaway center that cleared the 30-foot high batter's eye above the wall.

Hamilton, a Rule 5 pick from the Devil Rays via the Cubs, must stay on the Reds' 25-man roster or be offered back to Tampa Bay for $25,000. Hamilton was the first overall pick by Tampa Bay in 1999 draft.

He missed the almost all of the last three years with injuries and a two-year suspension from Major League Baseball for drug and alcohol abuse.

After undergoing a grueling and soul-clearing 45-minute press conference early this spring, during which he talked openly about his past, Hamilton has gone about the business of wowing observers in camp with long batting practice home runs and flashy defensive play.

Hamilton must make the club as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and the fact he can play all three outfield positions and the fact he bats left-handed works in his favor, if he can shake the rust of three years of not playing professionally.

"He is going to get a lot of at-bats this spring as we try to speed up the process of getting him back," manager Jerry Narron said. When the club played a five-inning intrasquad game, Hamilton batted three times, taking his two regular turns and the turn of another player. During the first exhibition game against the Pirates, he played the entire game and batted four times.

IslandRed
03-09-2007, 12:53 PM
I still am baffled by what so many execs and the media find to be brilliant. Every team saw he was available, and all teams would have had the opportunity to grab him. Why was what Wayne did so unusual? I find it hard to believe an entire league could just forget about a former #1 pick.

Well, you're right about that -- it's not like all 30 clubs didn't know who Hamilton was or that he was once considered a major talent. But in the end, we have him and the other teams don't, and that required at least two conscious decisions by Krivsky:

1. The willingness to take the risk. Hamilton will be high-maintenance, albeit for a different reason than we usually use the term. I imagine a lot of teams figured his talent, however considerable, wasn't worth the trouble, especially under the Rule 5 terms.

2. Being sure enough about it to spend some extra cash to make sure we got him, not leaving it to chance that he'd fall to the middle of the round.

lollipopcurve
03-09-2007, 01:12 PM
I still am baffled by what so many execs and the media find to be brilliant. Every team saw he was available, and all teams would have had the opportunity to grab him. Why was what Wayne did so unusual? I find it hard to believe an entire league could just forget about a former #1 pick.

Either many teams were interested in Hamilton, in which case Reds outmanuevered several clubs.

Or very few if any teams were interested, in which case Krivsky & Co did not suffer from the same blind spot re: Hamilton that afflicted the rest of the clubs.

From what I've read, the Reds thought Florida might grab him at #6, so they moved up to the #3 slot via trade with the Cubs. So, it's a little of both -- they outmanuevered the Marlins, seeing something that almost no other club did.

In other words, nice evaluation of a player, nice transaction. For me, a move like this allows you to compare the Reds FO to all others, because all others had the chance to make the same move. This is far different from using trades to compare GMs, in my opinion. Sometimes you'll see the board erupt when a team makes a nice trade or trades for a player people wish the Reds had. While it's possible the Reds could have made that trade, it is far from certain because in a trade it takes two to tango and the trade partner very well may not have wanted what the Reds had to offer. After all, one has to assume they accepted the best offer they felt they could get. However, in a Rule V pickup there's no tango -- everybody had an equal shot at Hamilton. It's similar to when they got Phillips last spring -- Cleveland had 10 days to get something for him or lose him to waivers. It was open season for any team in the majors -- it was not competitive bidding, confirmed by the fact all it took to get him was Jeff Stevens.

Sometimes people will say that moves like this don't impress because the risk is so low. My point of view is that they correctly evaluated a player while every other team in baseball did not.

Redsland
03-09-2007, 01:39 PM
From what I've read, the Reds thought Florida might grab him at #6, so they moved up to the #3 slot via trade with the Cubs. So, it's a little of both -- they outmanuevered the Marlins, seeing something that almost no other club did.
That's true. Wayne is showing himself to be a pretty savvy operator, what with the Hamilton two-step and the Livingston waiver claim/nullification.

M2
03-09-2007, 02:04 PM
A few thoughts on Hamilton:

I remember back when he was hot stuff in the prospect ranks and the somewhat subdued, but the spot on knock on him was that he had a 10-cent head. Obviously a lot of that had to do with personal issues, but he was a dumb player in the field - hacked at the plate, ran into outs on the bases, botched makeable plays in the field. Supposedly his game was till pretty disorderly last year in rookie ball too.

So what Cyclone has picked up on is something truly remarkable. Not only has Hamilton gotten himself clean, but he's also changed his game for the better. Until this spring, Hamilton had never shown any inclination to think along with the pitcher. He was just going to take his rips at whatever came his way.

It's morphed him from a guy who was fodder for teenagers last year to a guy who's smacking advanced pitchers at the start of spring training this year. That is a HUGE jump. Obviously it's just a week and he's still got a long way to go, but without the changes to his approach he'd already be around the Mendoza mark. As the pitchers begin to settle in and work in more variety, he's at least giving himself a chance in a way he never has before.

Normally players have to play a lot of baseball to make those sorts of adjustments. They usually don't change their approach until that approach fails them (for understandable reasons). Hamilton could have rolled into camp with all the talent in the world, but game rust and a bad approach could have sunk him. I expected it would. While I'm far from proclaiming him a success, the past 10 days have been a testament to a lot more than a guy who got his personal life in order. Hamilton's taken a far more professional approach to his game.

Red Leader
03-09-2007, 02:30 PM
Good post, M2.

For me, it's almost unbelievable that a player can make those adjustments in such a short time. As you said, most of the time, those adjustments come with playing lots and lots and lots of games. How has he done it without game experience? I'm really not sure.

Caveat Emperor
03-09-2007, 02:53 PM
How has he done it without game experience? I'm really not sure.

Just look at the title of the thread: Discipline.

Think of the tremendous amount of personal discipline required to combat an addiction that gnaws at you every day. If he has managed to exert the discipline required to keep himself clean for over a year who is to say what effect that would have on his approach to his game and understanding of how his talents can best be used?

Just shooting from the hip -- the sample size on all this is far too small to draw any real conclusions, IMO.

DoogMinAmo
03-09-2007, 02:58 PM
Hamilton would have to be passed through waivers before the Reds could work out a trade and send him down.

I believe the loophole is he is offered back to Tampa Bay and then officially traded for, but I am not 100% sure. I am fairly certain he does not have to pass through waivers if he stays on the 40 man and his rights are traded for; however, if Tampa passes on him (which they won't) and the Reds want to send him down, then the other teams have an opportunity to acquire him through waivers. Seems odd, but I think that is how it is.

membengal
03-09-2007, 03:06 PM
Against Cleveland so far today, seven pitch at-bat, down 1-2 for most of that at-bat, flies out in the first.

Singles through the infield on a 1-1 pitch and scores in his second at-bat.

osuceltic
03-09-2007, 05:18 PM
I'm loving the Hamilton stuff so far, and rooting hard for him. But I'm keeping in mind that he's been living in the cage for months -- time other players spent on the golf course -- and likely is much more sharp as spring training starts. Being realistic, I expect others to catch up to him, and for his performance to drop off. Now ... how much will it drop off? That's the big question.

TRF
03-09-2007, 05:40 PM
I think he's "in the zone" right now. I'd like to see his performance when he's not 'in the zone".

These days for him are like a natural "high". He himself stated as much in numerous interviews. How he struggles will be more telling about his long term career in baseball, and his life overall. I know firsthand what all he did to himself can do to a family and a life. I also know that recovery is a long and winding road. And you can lose sight of the destination, or worse think that there really is a destination. For Josh he might think returning to baseball is the destination. It isn't. The end of the road is the end of his life, just like it is for everyone. It's the road that matters, and for a long while he was on the wrong one.

I want him to make it so much. I want the Reds to hold him up as a light in the dark for recovering addicts, telling them nothing is impossible. But right now, these first 7-8 games of ST, it's coming too easy for him. When it gets harder, and it will get harder, the adjustments he makes in baseball and in his life will be interesting to watch.

It will also be interesting to see how the Reds FO handle Josh, and how he is treated by the "fans" at home. Remember, these are the same "fans" that booed Griffey for getting hurt. Right now, Josh is a feel good story. A 4 for 23 slump will change Reds fans minds about that, and Josh will have to deal with that too. And the name calling. "Fans" can be brutal.

Cooper
03-09-2007, 08:11 PM
I worry bout the time spent on the bench -the first month of the season. I doubt he'll be playing that much ---it's the down time when there ain't much to do. That's when it'll be tough.

I watched him today --he made a really good read in the field on a fly ball that was directly hit over his head --he made a good read on it --looked smooth.

Highlifeman21
03-10-2007, 01:18 AM
I worry bout the time spent on the bench -the first month of the season. I doubt he'll be playing that much ---it's the down time when there ain't much to do. That's when it'll be tough.

I watched him today --he made a really good read in the field on a fly ball that was directly hit over his head --he made a good read on it --looked smooth.

And it's reasons like this Josh Hamilton is quickly playing his way to being the starting CF for Opening Day.

Narron & Crew have fallen in love with this kid.

mth123
03-10-2007, 02:56 AM
And it's reasons like this Josh Hamilton is quickly playing his way to being the starting CF for Opening Day.

Narron & Crew have fallen in love with this kid.

Hamilton may fall on his face. He may never get a hit. He may regress into his former life. But if it gets Griffey out of CF, it will be the very good use of money and use of a roster spot.

I personally think Hamilton will be OK. I also think that the need for a lot of time in the minors may be overblown. In a perfect world he'd go down and get 500 to 1000 ABs, but a lot of development time in the minors is about maturing and growing up. Hamilton has had plenty of experience for that, and, with his struggles, time in the minors won't add much there.

For now, he can run, field and throw. Even if he doesn't hit a lick, many teams will have worse options on the opening day roster. The Reds seem to have a number of fallback options if he goes in the tank (none with his power potential though). Way better use of a roster spot than some Fringey 25th man (such as Bellhorn, Hopper or Moeller). If he develops by 2009, keeping him around will be well worth it.

jojo
03-10-2007, 07:28 AM
in 20 plate appearances thus far in spring training. .....


That excerpt pretty much sums it up for me....


Just for some perspective, the Reds currently have 10 guys slugging over .600 this spring.... Bubba Crosby is slugging .588..... Hatteberg is over 1.00..... Denorfia is only .200....

Some can call him young but a ballplayer who is 25 and really only has A ball under his belt, is not young. At this point Hamilton isn't projected to be anything.....he's a project.

mth123
03-10-2007, 07:47 AM
Hamilton would have to be passed through waivers before the Reds could work out a trade and send him down.

I'm not sure about this. I understand it as follows but I don't really know for sure (I wouldn't bet my house on it or anything).

Right now TB has the rights to Hamilton if the Reds send him down. If TB (the team holding the rights) passes, then the waiver process (to all other teams) begins.

The sequence of events that I see occurring:

If the Reds trade for his rights and send him down, as a rule 5 guy he would have to be offered to the team holding those rights which in this case would happen to be the Reds -acquired in trade from Tampa Bay. Reds keep him and no waivers ever occur because the team holding the rights (now the Reds as a result of the trade) chose to keep him.

My understanding is (again I wouldn't bet the house) the Rights to a rule 5 player are in the following sequence:

1. The team that picked him (as long as he stays in the majors).
2. The team he was picked from.
3. Everybody else in waiver order.

The Reds hold position number 1 right now and would be trading for position number 2. Those in position 3 would never get a shot.

mth123
03-11-2007, 11:37 AM
I'm not sure about this. I understand it as follows but I don't really know for sure (I wouldn't bet my house on it or anything).

Right now TB has the rights to Hamilton if the Reds send him down. If TB (the team holding the rights) passes, then the waiver process (to all other teams) begins.

The sequence of events that I see occurring:

If the Reds trade for his rights and send him down, as a rule 5 guy he would have to be offered to the team holding those rights which in this case would happen to be the Reds -acquired in trade from Tampa Bay. Reds keep him and no waivers ever occur because the team holding the rights (now the Reds as a result of the trade) chose to keep him.

My understanding is (again I wouldn't bet the house) the Rights to a rule 5 player are in the following sequence:

1. The team that picked him (as long as he stays in the majors).
2. The team he was picked from.
3. Everybody else in waiver order.

The Reds hold position number 1 right now and would be trading for position number 2. Those in position 3 would never get a shot.

I just read a blurb on Lincoln Holdzkom in Rotoworld




Rule 5 pick Lincoln Holdzkom has cleared waivers and been offered back to the Cubs.

The right-hander had allowed five runs in two innings this spring. Like Josh Hamilton, Holdzkom has cleared waivers before, so he could bypass a return to the Cubs and reject the assignment, making himself a free agent. For that reason, the Cubs may decide to keep their $25,000 and decline to take Holdzkom back.

This makes it sound as though Flyer was correct and I was wrong about this. Apparently the player needs to be put through waivers prior to being offered to his original team.

This makes a trade with TB a moot point as he will surely be claimed. Also, Hamilton is in the same situation as Holdzcom and could declare free agency if not claimed in waivers, so even if he passed waivers, a trade wouldn't guarantee the Reds anything. The Reds will need to keep him and use the DL/Rehab process to get him ABs if he cools off and doesn't play much for the big league team.

Oh well, TB has 11 players in the top 150 prospects in Baseball and numbers 12 through 20 in thier system would probably be in or near the top 10 for the Reds. I hope we get one to complete the Harris trade. That would be ok by me.

Does anyone have a link to the actual rule to settle the Hamilton question once and for all? Right now, I think Flyer is correct.

Sorry if my posts have mis-informed everyone.

membengal
03-11-2007, 02:24 PM
And...another base hit (driving in a run) for Hamilton to start the Sunday, again off of a lefty. He just doesn't seem very overmatched. At all. Adjusting very well to what he's seeing.

membengal
03-11-2007, 03:33 PM
Hamilton, against a pitcher pounding the strike zone in his second at-bat of the day on Sunday, grounds a ball into the hole at SS where it was knocked down, but no play.

2 for 2.

membengal
03-11-2007, 03:59 PM
And...a third hit for Hamilton on Sunday, after getting ahead on 2-0, a sharp single to right.

I believe he saw eight pitches in those first three at-bats, two singles to right, and a single to the whole at SS. The singles to RF were off of lefty pitchers, by the way...

Cyclone792
03-13-2007, 11:02 PM
Hamilton update for March 13th ...

Line drive single to right field off Mike Mussina
Sacrifice fly to left field off Mike Mussina
Infield hit fielded by the second baseman off Mariano Rivera
Walk off Matt DeSalvo

Hamilton is now hitting .571/.618/.821/1.439 with five walks in 34 plate appearances.

As far as I know, there's no data on how many pitches Hamilton took in each plate appearance, but his first three plate appearances did come off a pair of pretty good pitchers. FWIW, Matt DeSalvo split time last year between AA and AAA, and he does have a history of walking loads of hitters.

reds44
03-13-2007, 11:09 PM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RvBiekwrtvw

Gammons on Hamilton.

vaticanplum
03-13-2007, 11:19 PM
Remember that brain aneurysm Gammons had last year? I have not actually seen him speak since them, so...

Over/under on the odds that this hospital stay was secretly a cosmetic procedure to turn him into Karl Lagerfeld?

pedro
03-13-2007, 11:32 PM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RvBiekwrtvw

Gammons on Hamilton.

thanks for posting that.

Sea Ray
03-14-2007, 12:55 AM
A lot has been written about this guy and I admit I haven't read all of it. Has anyone compared him to Paul O'Neill? He sure looks like a young Paul O'Neill to me.

membengal
03-14-2007, 08:49 AM
SeaRay, if you click on that YouTube linkage to Gammons, he drops this happy set of words about the Natural:

"He looks like a young Larry Walker"

Boy, If he could get near THAT point...well...mmmmmmmmmm.

Sea Ray
03-14-2007, 04:24 PM
SeaRay, if you click on that YouTube linkage to Gammons, he drops this happy set of words about the Natural:

"He looks like a young Larry Walker"

Boy, If he could get near THAT point...well...mmmmmmmmmm.

Yes, I did see that. As a Reds fan we remember Paul O'Neill helping us to a WS championship whereas Peter Gammons probably didn't realize he existed until he was traded to the Red Sox division...;)

membengal
03-14-2007, 04:37 PM
No offense to O'Neill, and my fond memories of him, but Walker was a better player in my mind...

texasdave
03-14-2007, 04:51 PM
wait..i thought jay bruce was a young larry walker...how many young larry walkers do we need?

Patrick Bateman
03-14-2007, 04:53 PM
wait..i thought jay bruce was a young larry walker...how many young larry walkers do we need?

We need enough so that one of them actually turns into a Walker for real.

TRF
03-14-2007, 05:54 PM
No offense to O'Neill, and my fond memories of him, but Walker was a better player in my mind...

pheh. stats padded by four very Coors aided seasons that were so far out of his norm it bears scrutiny.

Both had tremendous arms. both were really 20-25 HR guys. Put O'Neil in Coors those same years, and he'd be the same hitter.

They were pretty close to being the same player, with Walker having a slight power edge. I think the OBP would have evened out.

membengal
03-14-2007, 06:23 PM
TRF, good question. You have forced me to go to the numbers to test my perception:

Larry Walker (career 1989 - 2005):

Career: .400 OBP .565 SLG .965 OPS 383 HR 1311 RBI 1355 R 2160 Hits 230 SB

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml

Paul O'Neill (1985 - 2001):

Career: .363 OBP .470 SLG .833 OPS 281 HR 1269 RBI 1041 R 2105 Hits 141 SB

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/o'neipa01.shtml

Even with Walker in Colorado adjustment in my mind, I still think he was the better player, better eye, better power, better speed.

Cyclone792
06-25-2007, 02:16 AM
On Sunday, Josh Hamilton eclipsed the 200 plate appearance mark for the 2007 season. Back in early March, I was hoping to see Hamilton get at least 200 plate appearances ... for the entire 2007 season. He's done that; back then I just didn't envision him doing that by June 24th.

Anyway, here's some notable plate discipline stats regarding Hamilton thus far ...

Hamilton: 8.42 PA/BB with 24 walks in 202 PAs (projection of 71 walks per 600 PAs)
League Avg: 11.92 PA/BB (projection of 50 walks per 600 PAs)


Hamilton: 3.74 P/PA
League Avg: 3.74 P/PA


Hamilton: 35.15 percent hitter's count PAs (71 out of 202)
League Avg: 35.35 percent hitter's count PAs


Hamilton: 26.74 percent pitcher's count PAs (54 out of 202)
League Avg: 30.72 percent pitcher's count PAs

Summary: Hamilton's walk rate is well above average, his pitches per plate appearance rate is exactly league average, his hitter's count rate is just about exactly league average, and his pitcher's count rate is above average. So far, Hamilton's walk rate is the third best on the entire team behind only Griffey and Dunn.

Considering Hamilton's journey back into baseball, the amount of plate discipline he's shown already this season in his first 200 plate appearances (and throughout spring training, as noted through this thread in early March) is nothing short of outstanding. Hamilton's not going to reach 600 plate appearances, but the fact that his current walk rate projects 71 walks over 600 plate appearances is astonishing. If Hamilton put up the same number of plate appearances as Dunn in a season (circa 675), his current walk rate projects to 80 walks.

And his 2007 season stats thus far? Merely .267/.356/.511/.867.

That's an IsoD of .089 and an IsoP of .244. He entered Sunday's game with an impressive 124 OPS+ and a 6.52 RC/27. He's putting up these numbers without the help of a high BABIP (only .290), which is good, and he's also posted a very nice 21.3 line drive percentage and a 25.6 home run per fly ball percentage.

What's interesting are his month splits and how they coincide with his walk rates ...

April: .266/.365/.609/.974 (10 walks in 74 PAs)
May: .255/.300/.418/.718 (3 walks in 60 PAs)
June: .281/.397/.491/.888 (11 walks in 68 PAs)

Hamilton was actively working the count and walking in April, and he was also crushing the ball then. When May rolled around, Hamilton's walk rate dipped, he began hacking, and his production dropped significantly. But then he was placed on the disabled list, sent down to AAA for a quick rehab assignment where he subsequently lit up AAA pitching, then proceeded to rejoin the Reds whereupon he began walking again while also enjoying another round of success against big league pitching.

Keep working the count, Josh. Keep laying off bad pitches, and keep driving good pitches. Keep getting into hitter's counts, and keep taking those walks.

Big Klu
06-25-2007, 02:47 AM
On Sunday, Josh Hamilton eclipsed the 200 plate appearance mark for the 2007 season. Back in early March, I was hoping to see Hamilton get at least 200 plate appearances ... for the entire 2007 season. He's done that; back then I just didn't envision him doing that by June 24th.

Anyway, here's some notable plate discipline stats regarding Hamilton thus far ...

Hamilton: 8.42 PA/BB with 24 walks in 202 PAs (projection of 71 walks per 600 PAs)
League Avg: 11.92 PA/BB (projection of 50 walks per 600 PAs)


Hamilton: 3.74 P/PA
League Avg: 3.74 P/PA


Hamilton: 35.15 percent hitter's count PAs (71 out of 202)
League Avg: 35.35 percent hitter's count PAs


Hamilton: 26.74 percent pitcher's count PAs (54 out of 202)
League Avg: 30.72 percent pitcher's count PAs

Summary: Hamilton's walk rate is well above average, his pitches per plate appearance rate is exactly league average, his hitter's count rate is just about exactly league average, and his pitcher's count rate is above average. So far, Hamilton's walk rate is the third best on the entire team behind only Griffey and Dunn.

Considering Hamilton's journey back into baseball, the amount of plate discipline he's shown already this season in his first 200 plate appearances (and throughout spring training, as noted through this thread in early March) is nothing short of outstanding. Hamilton's not going to reach 600 plate appearances, but the fact that his current walk rate projects 71 walks over 600 plate appearances is astonishing. If Hamilton put up the same number of plate appearances as Dunn in a season (circa 675), his current walk rate projects to 80 walks.

And his 2007 season stats thus far? Merely .267/.356/.511/.867.

That's an IsoD of .089 and an IsoP of .244. He entered Sunday's game with an impressive 124 OPS+ and a 6.52 RC/27. He's putting up these numbers without the help of a high BABIP (only .290), which is good, and he's also posted a very nice 21.3 line drive percentage and a 25.6 home run per fly ball percentage.

What's interesting are his month splits and how they coincide with his walk rates ...

April: .266/.365/.609/.974 (10 walks in 74 PAs)
May: .255/.300/.418/.718 (3 walks in 60 PAs)
June: .281/.397/.491/.888 (11 walks in 68 PAs)

Hamilton was actively working the count and walking in April, and he was also crushing the ball then. When May rolled around, Hamilton's walk rate dipped, he began hacking, and his production dropped significantly. But then he was placed on the disabled list, sent down to AAA for a quick rehab assignment where he subsequently lit up AAA pitching, then proceeded to rejoin the Reds whereupon he began walking again while also enjoying another round of success against big league pitching.

Keep working the count, Josh. Keep laying off bad pitches, and keep driving good pitches. Keep getting into hitter's counts, and keep taking those walks.

Could you see Hamilton as a leadoff hitter if Hatteberg cools off or is dealt?

Hoosier Red
06-25-2007, 09:29 AM
Could you define for me what pitchers counts and what hitters counts are.
Also are their counts that are neither pitchers counts nor hitters counts?

jojo
06-25-2007, 10:55 AM
Could you define for me what pitchers counts and what hitters counts are.
Also are their counts that are neither pitchers counts nor hitters counts?

This (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57416&highlight=jojo+leverage) thread kind of gets into it.

There are several very good threads in the archives dealing with various aspects of pitch counts if you search.

bucksfan2
06-25-2007, 11:28 AM
What I would determine a hitters count is when they have a 2 ball edge on strikes. So I would venture that 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 are hitters counts. Also I would say that a 3-2 count with more than 1 runner on base would also be a hitters count.

Cyclone792
06-25-2007, 12:30 PM
Could you see Hamilton as a leadoff hitter if Hatteberg cools off or is dealt?

For the time being, such as the remainder of this season, Hamilton could be a possible candidate for leadoff. I'm not sure I would bat him leadoff myself just yet, because he's still gaining valuable reps at the big league level. Narron's been batting Hamilton 6th in most of his recent lineups (especially righties), and I think that's a good spot for him this season as he continues adjusting to big league pitchers.


Could you define for me what pitchers counts and what hitters counts are.
Also are their counts that are neither pitchers counts nor hitters counts?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42961

I used the same methodology for Hamilton's batting counts as I used in that thread above. Hitter's counts being 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2. Pitcher's counts being 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2.

M2
06-25-2007, 01:41 PM
TRF, good question. You have forced me to go to the numbers to test my perception:

Larry Walker (career 1989 - 2005):

Career: .400 OBP .565 SLG .965 OPS 383 HR 1311 RBI 1355 R 2160 Hits 230 SB

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml

Paul O'Neill (1985 - 2001):

Career: .363 OBP .470 SLG .833 OPS 281 HR 1269 RBI 1041 R 2105 Hits 141 SB

http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/o'neipa01.shtml

Even with Walker in Colorado adjustment in my mind, I still think he was the better player, better eye, better power, better speed.

If you want a truly freaky comparison, try Walker (http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml) and Duke Snider (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/snidedu01.shtml). They had twin careers right down to the park adjustment.

Chip R
06-25-2007, 02:23 PM
For the time being, such as the remainder of this season, Hamilton could be a possible candidate for leadoff. I'm not sure I would bat him leadoff myself just yet, because he's still gaining valuable reps at the big league level.


I'd say getting valuable reps would be the best reason for hitting him leadoff. The leadoff hitter gets more plate appearances than any other hitter and Lord knows Josh needs the reps. The season's in the toilet anyway so why not get him 5 ABs a game instead of 3 or 4?