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texasdave
03-08-2007, 01:00 PM
Game Scores is one of the many contributions to Sabermetrics by Bill James. It was his method of determining how proficient a starting pitcher was in any given game. Here is a short article from Wikipedia that gives a brief explanation of it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_Score I decided to see how the Reds' starters from 2006 fared under this system.


Pitcher Starts Ave GS QS-GS &#37;QS-GS 60+-GS 39<-GS
Arroyo 35 56.3 23 66% 17 6
Harang 35 54.1 21 60% 13 7
Milton 26 46.3 14 54% 5 7
Ramirez 19 44.8 8 42% 4 6
Claussen 14 42.8 5 36% 2 4
Lohse 11 49.4 6 55% 5 3
Williams 8 36.8 3 38% 1 5
Michalak 6 37.7 1 17% 0 3
Mays 4 29.0 1 25% 0 3
Belisle 2 54.0 1 50% 1 0
Kim 1 54.0 1 100% 0 0
Germano 1 43.0 0 0% 0 0
Team 162 48.8 84 52% 48 44

The categories are: starts, average game score, quality start game score, % of quality starts game score, games score 60 plus, games score less than 39.

According to James' Game Score Method Arroyo would be the Reds best pitcher in 2006 followed closely by Harang. As a team the Reds' starters pitched a quality game a little over half the time.

I then decided to see how the team's won-lost record matched up with their Game Score pitching performances.


Game Score Team W/L Record
60+ 38-10
50-59 15-21
40-49 14-20
<39 13-31

If a Game Score of 50 is the dividing line between a quality start or not I picked these categories as follows:60+ is a very good start,50-59 an average to slightly above average start,40-49 an average to slightly below average start, <39 a poor start. The W/L records match this for the most part. Except I thought the W/L record for the 50-59 starts would be better than for the 40-49 starts. However they turned out to be almost identical.

After that I just decided to list the 6 Best and 6 Worst starting performances for the Reds in 2006. They are as follows;


Best Starts: Worst Starts:
1)Arroyo 86 4/2 Washington 1)Claussen -2 6/16 Chic WS
2)Arroyo 86 9/5 San Francisco 2)Claussen 5 4/22 Milwaukee
3)Milton 81 5/26 Arizona 3)Milton 8 9/17 Chic Cubs
4)Ramirez 81 6/14 Milwaukee 4)Ramirez 9 8/7 St. Louis
5)Harang 79 4/23 Milwaukee 5)Lohse 10 9/13 San Diego
6)Harang 79 7/25 Houston 6)Mays 11 6/1 Cleveland

That is a quick look at how the Reds' starting pitching performed in 2006 with regards to Bill James' Game Score method of evaluation.

PS The columns all line up when I click 'preview post'. I have no idea if they will still line up when this thread is submitted. Hopefully they will.

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 02:18 PM
So according to this, Ramirez is as overrated as I thought.

Arroyo
Harang
Lohse
Milton
Fill in the Blank

Hopefully Saarloos or Santos can fill that 5th spot nicely.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 03:10 PM
So according to this, Ramirez is as overrated as I thought.


The numbers don't tell you that he was injured though

Highlifeman21
03-08-2007, 03:53 PM
The numbers don't tell you that he was injured though

Then that's his fault for not telling Narron or the Medical Staff that he most likely hurt himself sometime in July.

If all we can come to expect from EZ is 100 IP, then let's put him in the bullpen and see if we can maximize his efforts for the 60-80 IP range, which clearly he can handle.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-08-2007, 04:01 PM
Then that's his fault for not telling Narron or the Medical Staff that he most likely hurt himself sometime in July.

If all we can come to expect from EZ is 100 IP, then let's put him in the bullpen and see if we can maximize his efforts for the 60-80 IP range, which clearly he can handle.

This I actually agree with. I've said before I'd like to see him slated into the long reliever's role.

I don't think one year tells us that 100IP is all we can expect out of him though.

dabvu2498
03-08-2007, 05:01 PM
I don't think one year tells us that 100IP is all we can expect out of him though.

Agreed.

Actually, here are Liz's combined IP #'s for the last four years.

03 - 157.1
04 - 128.2
05 - 153.2
06 - 130.0

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Elizardo-Ramirez.shtml