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David Cubbedge
03-18-2007, 03:06 PM
In 2006, Bronson Arroyo was selected as the lone All-Star representative for the Cincinnati Reds. This was well deserved and appropriately earned. Arroyo had a 9-6 record with a 3.12 ERA in 19 starts by the time he traveled to Pittsburgh for the mid-season extravaganza.

Arroyo had performed well in his first half season as a National League pitcher as evidenced by the previous numbers. But many say that he fell off in the second half. Many feel that the All-Star game may have given too much attention to Arroyo and that opposing managers decided to scout his pitches a little more. Can we hold this with any kind of truth when we look at his second half numbers?

Arroyo posted a 5-5 record and a very respectable 3.50 ERA in the second half. His WHIP was slightly better in the second half as he gave up 22 less hits and issued the same amount of walks in 19 less innings. The numbers show that Arroyo remained consistent throughout the season. The only downfall to his game was the fact that he issued too many homeruns. But what Reds pitcher did not do the same?

I have to admit, I felt as though Arroyo wasn't pitching as well in the second half as well. But was it really the case? The numbers show that we do not have much to worry about when it comes to the 2nd man in the Reds rotation this year.

I was in fear of right handed hitters facing Arroyo this year as I figured many of the teams would be aware of that tight curveball he delivers on the inside corner on right handers. That ball can get hit hard if it is expected. But many are still fooled and it is still one of his best pitches. If teams start to figure out how to hit that breaking ball, we may start to see the numbers decline. But so far, Arroyo is seeing success and really has not declined in his game.

Do any of you fear Arroyo having a worse season this year? After viewing the numbers from last season, is it fair to say that he did not slump in the second half? Is their anything to worry about at all with Arroyo right now?

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2007, 03:17 PM
I fully expect another very good season from Bronson Arroyo. How good you ask? I would venture to guess somewhere around 220 innings, a WHIP around 1.20, and an ERA in the 3.40-3.50 range.

Patrick Bateman
03-18-2007, 03:30 PM
He should be in line for another good season, but still some decline.

I'd guess in the 3.75 ERA range.

LINEDRIVER
03-18-2007, 04:09 PM
Arroyo had performed well in his first half season as a National League pitcher as evidenced by the previous numbers. But many say that he fell off in the second half. Many feel that the All-Star game may have given too much attention to Arroyo and that opposing managers decided to scout his pitches a little more. Can we hold this with any kind of truth when we look at his second half numbers?

Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.

HumnHilghtFreel
03-18-2007, 04:16 PM
Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.

I'd blame the offense for a lot of his slump though.

Arroyo's no-decision games:

5 ip, 5 er
8 ip, 0 er
6 ip, 4 er
7 ip, 2 er
7 ip, 0 er
8 ip, 2 er
6 ip, 4 er
5.2, 5 er
6 ip, 2 er
7 ip, 0 er

65 2/3 ip, 24 er = 3.28 era in no decisions

In that winless streak, he really wasn't getting a whole lot of help.

Eric_Davis
03-18-2007, 04:24 PM
He's a #1 starter along with Aaron Harang. Who'd have thought that anytime during the last 10 years that we'd have two #1 starters to count on going into the 2007 season?

I don't think either one of them are among the best seven pitchers in the National League, but I think both of them are among the next seven.

Jpup
03-18-2007, 04:27 PM
He's a #1 starter along with Aaron Harang. Who'd have thought that anytime during the last 10 years that we'd have two #1 starters to count on going into the 2007 season?

I don't think either one of them are among the best seven pitchers in the National League, but I think both of them are among the next seven.

Who are the 7 better than Harang and Arroyo?

Carpenter
Webb
Oswalt
Zambrano

After those four I'm not sure anyone is better based on last season. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Brett Myers and very good, but are they really better than Arroyo or Harang? Maybe you can throw in John Smoltz as well, but I don't see how 7 of those guys are better than the Reds 1 and 2.

Eric_Davis
03-18-2007, 05:24 PM
Who are the 7 better than Harang and Arroyo?

Carpenter
Webb
Oswalt
Zambrano

After those four I'm not sure anyone is better based on last season. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Brett Myers and very good, but are they really better than Arroyo or Harang? Maybe you can throw in John Smoltz as well, but I don't see how 7 of those guys are better than the Reds 1 and 2.


Well, I think the best five National League Pitchers in 2007 will be Carpenter, Zambrano, Smoltz, C. Young and Webb.

After that, Arroyo could be next, along with Cain and Oswalt...so, maybe top-seven.

After those eight, then Peavy, Schmidt, Lowe, and Hensley.

Harang is in the next group after that. Harang just gives up way too many hits and way too many runs. Today was typical as he gave up no walks with 9 K's in 5 innings. Brilliant,....but he also gave up 4 runs, 3 earned and got the loss. Still, if you figure 14 teams in the NL, and he could be the 14th best pitcher in the NL (starters), then that makes him a #1.

RedsManRick
03-18-2007, 05:40 PM
I think his ERA will slip maybe half a run to the low 3s, but what I really liked was his consistency. He was tied for 5th in baseball with 23 QS. The four guys ahead of him?

Chris Capuano, Johan Santana, John Smoltz, and Roy Oswalt. Capuano is actually a fairly good comp stats wise for him. I'm happy with Harang and Arroyo at the front of the rotation. One is a mediocre #1, the other a good #2. His ERA will probably regress a little, but we're basically gonna get the same level of performance in my opinion.

Mario-Rijo
03-18-2007, 05:44 PM
Well, I think the best five National League Pitchers in 2007 will be Carpenter, Zambrano, Smoltz, C. Young and Webb.

After that, Arroyo could be next, along with Cain and Oswalt...so, maybe top-seven.

After those eight, then Peavy, Schmidt, Lowe, and Hensley.

Harang is in the next group after that. Harang just gives up way too many hits and way too many runs. Today was typical as he gave up no walks with 9 K's in 5 innings. Brilliant,....but he also gave up 4 runs, 3 earned and got the loss. Still, if you figure 14 teams in the NL, and he could be the 14th best pitcher in the NL (starters), then that makes him a #1.


I disagree Harang is better IMO than Arroyo. In fact I would say after Carpenter, Oswalt, Zambrano and maybe Webb I would place Harang next. Then Smoltz, Schmidt, Cain, Zito and Peavy (if he reverts to the pre-'06 version) and then Arroyo. It could be argued perhaps that Smoltz and Schmidt are also better than Harang but none of the others listed thereafter.

But any way you cut it, we have 2 of the NL's top 15 starters. And I have both of them on my fantasy team. :beerme:

dougdirt
03-18-2007, 05:46 PM
I would toss in Ben Sheets as on of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. When healthy, he might be the best pitcher in the NL.

David Cubbedge
03-18-2007, 07:21 PM
Good points fellas. The one thing I fear is that both Harang and Arroyo will be heavily scouted as many did not expect much from them last season. Now they are becoming known as good pitchers and people may be watching films before the game a little more often.

I expect that their success may lead to minor declines as teams are a bit more ready for them this year.

Jr's Boy
03-18-2007, 07:42 PM
Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.


Don't forget a few of those games the bullpen contributed to his loss'es.

Caveat Emperor
03-18-2007, 09:07 PM
I would toss in Ben Sheets as on of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. When healthy, he might be the best pitcher in the NL.

Two injury-plagued seasons back to back are managable. If he strings a third one on there this year, he might be on a one-way ticket to Priorville and Woodtown.

That'd be a shame too -- he's an unbelievable talent.

RedFanAlways1966
03-18-2007, 09:09 PM
I have to admit, I felt as though Arroyo wasn't pitching as well in the second half as well. But was it really the case? The numbers show that we do not have much to worry about when it comes to the 2nd man in the Reds rotation this year.

I was in fear of right handed hitters facing Arroyo this year as I figured many of the teams would be aware of that tight curveball he delivers on the inside corner on right handers. That ball can get hit hard if it is expected. But many are still fooled and it is still one of his best pitches. If teams start to figure out how to hit that breaking ball, we may start to see the numbers decline. But so far, Arroyo is seeing success and really has not declined in his game.


Arroyo finished last year very well.

Arroyo's Last 10 Starts in 2006
70.1 IP, 50 H, 21 ER, 5 HRA.
>> 2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 80.0% QS ratio.

As far as teams figuring him out, his combined stats when he started a 2nd-5th time last year against a team were better than his combined stats when he started for the first time against a team.

First Start vs. Teams
15 GS, 98.0 IP, 104 H, 3.58 ERA, 1.36 WHIP.
Non-First Start vs. Teams
20 GS, 142.2 IP, 118 H, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP.

Spitball
03-18-2007, 09:42 PM
I was in fear of right handed hitters facing Arroyo this year as I figured many of the teams would be aware of that tight curveball he delivers on the inside corner on right handers. That ball can get hit hard if it is expected. But many are still fooled and it is still one of his best pitches. If teams start to figure out how to hit that breaking ball, we may start to see the numbers decline.

Ah, to understand the answer to this point is to understand Arroyo's success since 2004. Arroyo wants batters looking for his curve because he pitches backward off his curveball like most pitch off their fastball. He depends on a batter leaning in for his curve and then busting his fastball inside. He is constantly slowing down the bats and then speeding them up. Arroyo has excellent instincts out on the mound. He adjusts to a batter's approach to his pitching.

jmac
03-18-2007, 10:04 PM
He should be in line for another good season, but still some decline.

I'd guess in the 3.75 ERA range.

I will be very happy if BA puts that ERA up and I agree it to be in that range.

tripleaaaron
03-18-2007, 11:34 PM
Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.

This is fantastic, that is definately a slump compared to the rest of his season, but this is a beautiful conversation we are having, I remember not a short time ago that stretch (even for our #2) would have been considered an almost outstanding stretch, and while I do personally think there will be a slight regression in numbers as in 3.6-3.8 ERA, I personally will still love that kind of performance.

tripleaaaron
03-18-2007, 11:45 PM
My order of NL Starting Pitchers
1. Rocket
2. Carpenter
3. Zambrano
4. Oswalt
5. Webb
6. Pedro
7. Peavy
8. Sheets
9. Smoltz
10. Harang
11. Zito
12. Cain
13. Arroyo
I found 9 better than Harang, 8 if Rocket retires or goes to the AL
but nonetheless I am very happy with two top 13 pitchers and a few of the top tier guys are on there way out, Pedro could arguably be dropped but this is based heavily on prior major leaugue experience, which is mostly why Arroyo is dropped. He has only performed this well for one season, where the guys above him much longer track records (except Cain, but he is a force)
So even if our guys are not amongst the very top of the elite list, but that doesnt mean they soon wont

kheidg-
03-19-2007, 01:06 AM
When healthy Pedro Martinez can surely be added to that list. I'd also say that Smoltz is a Top 5.

RedEye
03-19-2007, 09:54 AM
The big anomaly in Arroyo's stats last year, as far as I can tell, is his ERA. According to most reputable sources, he was just very lucky on balls hit in-play last year, for whatever reason. That doesn't mean he won't have a good year in 2007. He very well may win 14-15 games again, but I would be surprised to see another 3.29.

You may have already seen JinAZ's excellent post on Arroyo's extension, which runs down his numbers very convincingly:

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/02/reds-extend-arroyo.html

I think Arroyo will fall back to career norms this season, which would put him around 4.00. Again, this doesn't mean he won't still be a solid ML #2.

bucksfan2
03-19-2007, 10:04 AM
My order of NL Starting Pitchers
1. Rocket
2. Carpenter
3. Zambrano
4. Oswalt
5. Webb
6. Pedro
7. Peavy
8. Sheets
9. Smoltz
10. Harang
11. Zito
12. Cain
13. Arroyo
I found 9 better than Harang, 8 if Rocket retires or goes to the AL
but nonetheless I am very happy with two top 13 pitchers and a few of the top tier guys are on there way out, Pedro could arguably be dropped but this is based heavily on prior major leaugue experience, which is mostly why Arroyo is dropped. He has only performed this well for one season, where the guys above him much longer track records (except Cain, but he is a force)
So even if our guys are not amongst the very top of the elite list, but that doesnt mean they soon wont

There is no way I put Pedro or Smoltz ahead of Harang or Arroyo. Pedro is a 6 inning pitcher at best. Look at Clemens over the past few years. He has been absolutly dominant yet fails to rack up wins because he cant go deep into a game. I see similarities with Pedro and Smoltz. I dont think too highly of Sheets. The guy just cant stay healthy. IMO Peavy is one of the best in the league. I go
Carpenter
Ozwalt
Webb
Peavy
Zambrono
Harang
Zito
Arroyo
Cain
Smoltz
etc.

kheidg-
03-19-2007, 12:30 PM
No way I put Harang or Arroyo ahead of Smoltz. Smoltz is a bonifide #1 starter and has proved that throughout his long career. Arroyo had a career year last year and Harangs ERA is simply way too high to be considered better than Smoltz.

Eric_Davis
03-19-2007, 04:04 PM
Two injury-plagued seasons back to back are managable. If he strings a third one on there this year, he might be on a one-way ticket to Priorville and Woodtown.

That'd be a shame too -- he's an unbelievable talent.


Talent, yes, but he always finds a way to lose games. The guy just can't win baseball games.

Eric_Davis
03-19-2007, 04:09 PM
Arroyo finished last year very well.

Arroyo's Last 10 Starts in 2006
70.1 IP, 50 H, 21 ER, 5 HRA.
>> 2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 80.0% QS ratio.

As far as teams figuring him out, his combined stats when he started a 2nd-5th time last year against a team were better than his combined stats when he started for the first time against a team.

First Start vs. Teams
15 GS, 98.0 IP, 104 H, 3.58 ERA, 1.36 WHIP.
Non-First Start vs. Teams
20 GS, 142.2 IP, 118 H, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP.

Nice. never even thought about that. Thanks for putting that together. It's so very important for a guy like Arroyo, as everyone constantly was saying, "Once the league sees him, then he won't have as much success." Au contrair.

Those 20 starts are phenomenal numbers, worthy of a Cy Young Award. I doubt very much if anyone else in the NL put up those type of numbers under the same conditions.

Eric_Davis
03-19-2007, 04:14 PM
When healthy Pedro Martinez can surely be added to that list. I'd also say that Smoltz is a Top 5.


For the record, there is no such thing as a healthy Pedro Martinez anymore, so he can no longer be considered an elite pitcher. An elite pitcher throws for 200 innings. Pedro will be lucky if he throws for 80 innings in 2007.

bucksfan2
03-19-2007, 04:30 PM
No way I put Harang or Arroyo ahead of Smoltz. Smoltz is a bonifide #1 starter and has proved that throughout his long career. Arroyo had a career year last year and Harangs ERA is simply way too high to be considered better than Smoltz.

Smoltz is a dominant pitcher I am just wondering when age is going to catch up to him. He will be 40 this year and I just dont know how long he can keep pitching late into games.

Mario-Rijo
03-19-2007, 07:34 PM
Originally posted by DougDirtI would toss in Ben Sheets as on of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. When healthy, he might be the best pitcher in the NL.


Yeah if he can get healthy again I agree he is top 5. I just wonder if that can now happen?

A couple of other notes.

Pedro is done!

The Rocket is top 5 in baseball if he does not retire, but I think it's a foregone conclusion. But if he doesn't then he will likely be pulling on the pinstripes one last time, and not the minute maid orange colored ones either.

Peavy may be better than Harang if he get's back whatever ailed him last year, but until then I would rather have Aaron.

And Smoltz is still a solid #1 and could likely be argued to be better at this point than Harang but he is not consistently better for a full season anymore IMO.

Eric_Davis
03-20-2007, 06:13 PM
Arroyo has already proven he's better than many think. I'm sure that he's still better than most people think.