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TRF
03-20-2007, 04:16 PM
Here are the rules. There are three...


The player cannot be on the BA top ten list.
The player cannot be on the RedsZone top 10 list
You must give a reason for this breakout other than... "I got a hunch..."Any level of minor leaguer is fine from Dayton to Louisville. No Rookie level players, unless they are projected to be at Dayton or higher to start this season.

And now, here is my breakout player... Tyler Pelland.

LH pitchers take longer to develop. Pelland has been over-promoted the last two seasons, a trend that could continue this year as he has been mentioned pitching in Bats games this ST. Pelland is a power pitcher with a fastball that can hit 95 and from all reports a big curveball. His K/9 number dropped sharply in 2006, but some of that could be attributed to an increased workload. In 2005 under DanO's tandem stater program, Pelland only got 15 starts and pitched right around 100 innings. in 2006, that was upped to 140. He's good at keeping the ball in the park, only 11 HR's in 142 IP in 2006, 5 HR's in 102 IP in 2005.

Bailey, Cueto and Wood get a lot of press, and deservedly so. If Pelland gets his K/9 back to where it was in 2005, he could be in a reds uniform in some capacity as soon as next year. If he's assigned to Louisville and does well, he's a possible September callup.

Redmachine2003
03-20-2007, 04:36 PM
I got 3 Milton Loo, Logan Parker, and Rafael Gonzalez. Gonzo has the stuff and I think as he gets older he will be more focused. Parker will put up some good Power numbers and decent avg. and Milton will be healthy and show he is special with the bat

dougdirt
03-20-2007, 06:28 PM
Milton Loo is in Baseball Americas top 10 redmachine2003.

My pick is Josh Ravin. Fastball that touches 96 and two average-slightly above average offspeed pitches does it for me. I think he has a chance to succeed in Dayton.

Betterread
03-20-2007, 06:53 PM
I think the breakout minor leaguer will come from the AA rotation: with Johnny Cueto, Sam LeCure, James Avery, Camilo Vazquez and Tyler Pelland it will be fun to watch who emerges. Cueto is obviously the highest rated prospect - so my choice for a breakout guy is Vazquez. The reason is that his strikeout rate is good, and he gets misses with both his curve and his FB. He has good control and command, but his weakness is giving up too many homers. I think Pelland and Cueto are good bullpen candidates so it will be interesting to see how the Reds development staff handles them this year.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2007, 07:43 PM
TRF has picked Pelland as his breakout player for about five years in a row now. ;) Just messin' with ya TRF, I like Pelland's arm too. If he can learn to command his pitches then he'll turn into a solid major league pitcher. Hopefully he repeats AA this year...he's been overpromted every year in the Reds organization.

Anyway, I have two breakout players. Logan Parker on offense and Josh Ravin on the pitching side. As Doug previously stated, Ravin was reportedly hitting 96 mph in Instructional League to go along with his two above average secondary pitches. I believe he spends the whole season in the Midwest League and develops into one of the better prospects in the league.

Logan Parker. Just a kid I have liked since day one. A big guy with good power and and great plate discipline. I expect 20 homers and 35 doubles from him this year along with 80+ walks.

TOBTTReds
03-20-2007, 08:04 PM
Logan Parker. Just a kid I have liked since day one. A big guy with good power and and great plate discipline. I expect 20 homers and 35 doubles from him this year along with 80+ walks.

This was mine right when I saw the thread and for these reasons.

texasdave
03-20-2007, 08:07 PM
Daryl Thompson. Held back in 2006 by health issues, DT gets healthy in 2007 and enemy stickmen pay the price. In limited action he put up a 10.29 K/9 and held opposing hitters to a .214 batting average. Of the 37 balls put into play against Thompson only two were line drives. Yep, the future is so bright he's gotta wear shades. :cool:

mth123
03-20-2007, 08:46 PM
I'm going to go with Carlos Fisher. Lots of reasons.

1. At A- in 2006 he went 2.28 W/9, 7.32 K/9, with a tiny .30 HR/9. His ERA was 2.76 and he went a fairly well stretched out 150 Innings.

2. He's not on lists (I suspect) because he was 23 at Low A, but he got a late start and isn't 23 in Baseball Experience.

3. Given his age, the team may move him quickly with him possibly finishing 2007 at AA. (This part is a hunch I admit).

4. At 6-4, 220 he has good pitcher size and should be able to handle a starter's workload and should, at 24 this season, be through the most critical part of the injury nexus.

In my opinion, based on the stats, Fisher had the best pitching season in the system last year for any minor leaguer not named Bailey. 2007 will probably tell whether he is a prospect or a suspect. I'm impressed by good K's, low walks and low HR's on a starters workload at any level.

Topcat
03-20-2007, 10:25 PM
I am going to be bias cuz he is my adopted prospect but I am choosing Derrick Lutz. Go LUTZ Go your My boy Lutz!

Kc61
03-20-2007, 10:32 PM
Breakout player: I'll go with an upper minor leaguer. Coutlangus to be a solid contributor with the Reds by August.

Honorable mention: Catcher Craig Tatum to show that he can hit and is a real catching prospect.

RedsManRick
03-20-2007, 10:46 PM
Removed due to stupidity.

mth123
03-20-2007, 10:49 PM
Breakout player: I'll go with an upper minor leaguer. Coutlangus to be a solid contributor with the Reds by August.

Honorable mention: Catcher Craig Tatum to show that he can hit and is a real catching prospect.

If I didn't like Fisher so much, Coutlangus would have been my man.

Tatum went .277/.344/.408 in low A at 23. I'd like to see a little more power in A+, but its better than Dane Sardinha.

TRF
03-21-2007, 09:27 AM
TRF has picked Pelland as his breakout player for about five years in a row now. ;) Just messin' with ya TRF, I like Pelland's arm too. If he can learn to command his pitches then he'll turn into a solid major league pitcher. Hopefully he repeats AA this year...he's been overpromted every year in the Reds organization.

Anyway, I have two breakout players. Logan Parker on offense and Josh Ravin on the pitching side. As Doug previously stated, Ravin was reportedly hitting 96 mph in Instructional League to go along with his two above average secondary pitches. I believe he spends the whole season in the Midwest League and develops into one of the better prospects in the league.

Logan Parker. Just a kid I have liked since day one. A big guy with good power and and great plate discipline. I expect 20 homers and 35 doubles from him this year along with 80+ walks.

Yup. I liked this kid from the beginning. He struggled at Dayton, got demoted to Billings and just dominated. No complaining, no excuses. He's always had good K/9 numbers except for last year, which I am going to attribute to an increased workload.

Besides, how many LH starters do the Reds have in the entire org. that can hit 95?

bucksfan2
03-21-2007, 09:37 AM
I dont have a lot of minor league knowledge. Most of it I get from this forum. But for a breakout minor leaguer I would like to see someone force the hand of the major league management. I look for Janish to force his way into AAA. I dont know where he ranked on the redszone rakings but if he can show he can hit the reds may have something special.

I also would be interested to see what Daryl Thompson does this season. There was a reason that Krivsky included him in a trade. If he has a good year we may soon forget "the trade"

membengal
03-21-2007, 10:21 AM
I forgot who is on that list.

If Sam Lecure is not on it, I tab him as breakout guy...

TRF
03-21-2007, 03:51 PM
I forgot who is on that list.

If Sam Lecure is not on it, I tab him as breakout guy...

I like LeCure too, but how do you see him as a breakout guy? What do you see or read in his game that says he is going to take it up a notch?

Aronchis
03-21-2007, 03:59 PM
Pelland has little secondary stuff. It just wasn't command why his krate fell off the table from high A to AA. I would put him in AAA in the pen and just let him rip. He also would have a faster timetable to the majors from the pen and ridding us of the old age soldier crew.

Patrick Bateman
03-21-2007, 04:05 PM
Pelland has little secondary stuff. It just wasn't command why his krate fell off the table from high A to AA. I would put him in AAA in the pen and just let him rip. He also would have a faster timetable to the majors from the pen and ridding us of the old age soldier crew.

That's what I was thinking. Pelland definitely has some potential, but like you, I highly doubt his arsenal will hold up as a starter.

Redman15
03-21-2007, 04:07 PM
I like Francisco and Phipps. They should both be in Dayton.When they were in Billings last year they were skinny.Francisco has put on some serious muscle. Phipps has put on about 20 lbs and is in pretty good shape too.Francisco has a chance to hit 20+ bombs and Phipps could steal 40 + bags this year.

Patrick Bateman
03-21-2007, 04:07 PM
Anyway, I have two breakout players. Logan Parker on offense and Josh Ravin on the pitching side. As Doug previously stated, Ravin was reportedly hitting 96 mph in Instructional League to go along with his two above average secondary pitches. I believe he spends the whole season in the Midwest League and develops into one of the better prospects in the league.

Logan Parker. Just a kid I have liked since day one. A big guy with good power and and great plate discipline. I expect 20 homers and 35 doubles from him this year along with 80+ walks.

I really like your Parker pick. He's one of the few lower level prospects that I think can potentially hit quite well. That was one of the better draft picks from the draft IMO.

M2
03-21-2007, 05:35 PM
Jake Long, American Dragon

He'll be the first Reds catching prospect with a clue at the plate since Jason LaRue.

Mario-Rijo
03-21-2007, 06:00 PM
He'll be the first Reds catching prospect with a clue at the plate since Jason LaRue.

Wow that's not very encouraging. But I know what you mean.



I know he's in the top ten and all so I won't pick him, but I am expecting good things from Travis Wood this year. I fully expect to see him in Chattanooga at worst by the end of the season.


Daryl thompson was gonna be my pick as well, but texasdave beat me to it. I also like Sean Watson but I think he is a year away yet before he breaks out.

So I am going with Miguel Perez, for a couple of reasons. 1st he will be 24 in September and his physical maturity should finally be coming to a halt. And also because after coming to Major League camp and not being able to contribute/play much and sitting for a half a season sure makes a guy wanna get better and get back on the field ASAP.

There is nothing like having something taken away that you love to make you wanna improve yourself. Plus he might actually have some time to learn some things sitting and watching for the 1st time in years. Of course it will only be a partial breakout due to sitting for so long but it should raise some brows if he figures it out.

lollipopcurve
03-21-2007, 07:03 PM
I think a guy who may be under the radar is Logan Ondrusek. More guesswork than anything...

NC Reds
03-21-2007, 07:23 PM
Jamie Arneson for the pitchers.

Chris Heisey (spelling?) for the hitters.

Heisey performed pretty well in Billings last year (better than Stubbs did). Arneson is my pick based on him being left handed and tall.

Yes, these are largely guesses guided by intuition.

OnBaseMachine
03-21-2007, 07:24 PM
Arneson is a great pick. I completely forgot about him. Great choice.

JaxRed
03-21-2007, 08:22 PM
Pitcher Rick Asaadorian

klw
03-22-2007, 05:12 PM
My pick is Carlos Guevara

membengal
03-23-2007, 01:26 AM
I like LeCure too, but how do you see him as a breakout guy? What do you see or read in his game that says he is going to take it up a notch?

Sorry, trf, just noticed the query.

I like the stuff he throws, it's a good assortment of quality hard stuff. Low 90s fastball, slider, change. 115 Ks in 141 innings last year hints at the possibility for frisky K per 9 rates as he progresses.The success he had a High A last year after a Billings debut the year before also gives me optimism.

I dunno, just feels to me like a guy with a live arm, an idea how to use it, and an assortment of pitches to go with it that is about to come into his own.

I have high hopes for him...

BuckeyeRedleg
04-05-2007, 05:04 PM
Pitcher Rick Asaadorian

My pick as well. Why? Because he throws hard.

If I have to pick one that hasn't already been picked, I'll go with Josh Roenicke.

Superdude
04-05-2007, 05:43 PM
115 Ks in 141 innings last year hints at the possibility for frisky K per 9 rates as he progresses.

Is a frisky K rate a good thing or a bad thing?

Sham
04-05-2007, 09:40 PM
Bubba Smith.

tbball10
04-06-2007, 07:03 PM
im gonna stick with what i said last time we had a thread like this:

pitcher: jamie arneson
hitter: b.j. szymanski

zipcurve
04-07-2007, 01:46 PM
I pick LeCure. He has a pitcher's mentality to go with his array of pitches

BuckeyeRedleg
04-20-2007, 11:42 PM
Shamless bump for my pick, Josh Roenicke.

Thru 4-20 (Sarasota A+)

7.2 IP
14 K
5 BB
2 H
.91 WHIP
7 SAVES

mth123
04-21-2007, 05:50 AM
Thanks for Bumping. I picked Carlos Fisher:

19.0 IP, 10K, 0.47 ERA, 2BB and 1 HB, 0.79 WHIP, 0 HR Allowed, 3-0.

Fisher got a late start and at 24 is a little old for A+ in terms of age if not in pitching experience. I hope with another month or so of dominance that a bump to AA is in the cards.

membengal
04-23-2007, 01:48 PM
My breakout guy was Sam Lecure, so far:

14 IP 14 hits 15 Ks 10 walks 1.93 ERA (3 ER) 1.71 WHIP

I like the power numbers so far, but his command has been off. Assuming (if? hoping?) he locates some control, I still like my pick.

TRF
04-23-2007, 03:00 PM
Gah.

Pelland is treading water. I really hoped repeating AA would allow him to step it up a notch.


IP H R ER HR HB BB SO WHIP
18.0 19 17 8 3 2 8 13 1.50


I'm ok with the K numbers, but the total number of runs allowed is worrisome. His ERA could be a lot higher but for a scoring decision.

dougdirt
04-23-2007, 03:06 PM
Most of the unearned runs on Pelland are his own fault. He has 3 errors already from the pitchers spot.

Aronchis
04-26-2007, 07:43 PM
Most of the unearned runs on Pelland are his own fault. He has 3 errors already from the pitchers spot.

It is a amazing how bad a starter Pelland truly is. Though lefties that can hit 93 regularly always get a lifetime of chances. He needs a career switch.

M2
04-26-2007, 07:53 PM
It is a amazing how bad a starter Pelland truly is. Though lefties that can hit 93 regularly always get a lifetime of chances. He needs a career switch.

I'm in shock the team hasn't done a reliever conversion with him yet.

Aronchis
04-26-2007, 07:56 PM
I'm in shock the team hasn't done a reliever conversion with him yet.

hope springs eternal.

TRF
04-27-2007, 09:21 AM
LH pitcher sometimes take longer. Or so I've read. His low K rate is alarming though. I'm guessing he's not throwing his FB enough, and has fallen in "love" with his curveball. Similar to Reitsma and his changeup.

He needs to remember he can throw 95 from the left side, and start running it in on guys. I still have hope for him as a starter, but I am thinking this is his last year in that role if he doesn't step it up.

That said, I wouldn't mind a power LH out of the pen for the Reds.

membengal
05-07-2007, 02:05 PM
Bumping for a Lecure update (as I check my pick for this thread against actual results):

4-0 record 29 innings 2.48 ERA 1.62 WHIP (30 hits, 17 walks) 31 Ks

His walk rate has actually improved since the last time I updated his stats a few weeks ago (10 walks in his first 14 innings this year, seven in his last 15 innings), while holding his K rate. That's a good sign of potential continued improvement from Lecure. All in all, not too displeased with the start to his year, but continue to hope that the walks allowed continue to decrease (that's an absolute must if he is to make any "breakout" lists at the end of the season).

Still, I would be happier if I had tabbed Daryl Thompson or Sean Watson as the my breakout guy, the way those two have started year. But, as it is, not disheartened by what Lecure is getting done, and hoping he can build on the slightly better control he has shown in the last few weeks...

TRF
05-07-2007, 02:25 PM
Pelland got his first save of the year, Saturday I think.

I'm hoping the conversion to the pen really helps him.

membengal
05-07-2007, 03:25 PM
Yeah, loving the Pelland move. Makes a ton of sense.

As for Lecure, I am most pleased that his K rate is one per inning so far in 2007. While the walks are a concern, the increased K rate from 2006 is a nice balancer...

mth123
05-07-2007, 06:45 PM
Carlos Fisher:

4-1, 2.20 ERA, 41 IP, K/9 9.0, BB/9 1.54, HR/9 .22, BABIP .307, FIP 2.10

BABIP and FIP say the stats aren't a fluke. Florida State League says its not cold weather influenced.

Great start for Carlos. A call to AA with continued success should put him on the map.